Prediabetes Defined by First Measured HbA1c Predicts Higher Cardiovascular Risk Compared With HbA1c in the Diabetes Range: A Cohort Study of Nationwide Registries

Efficacy and safety of once-weekly semaglutide 2·4 mg versus placebo in people with obesity and prediabetes (STEP 10): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND

There are currently limited data regarding the effect of semaglutide 2·4 mg in individuals with obesity and prediabetes in clinical trials. We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of semaglutide 2·4 mg for weight management and glycaemic control in participants with obesity and prediabetes.

METHODS

STEP 10 was a randomised, double-blind, parallel-group, phase 3 trial done across 30 trial sites in Canada, Denmark, Finland, Spain, and the UK and included participants aged 18 years or older with a BMI of 30 kg/m2 or higher and prediabetes according to UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence criteria (defined as having at least one of the following at screening: HbA1c of 6·0-6·4% [42-47 mmol/mol] or fasting plasma glucose [FPG] of 5·5-6·9 mmol/L). Participants were randomly assigned (2:1) to once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide 2·4 mg or placebo with diet and physical activity counselling for 52 weeks, followed by a 28-week off-treatment period. Primary endpoints were percentage change in bodyweight and proportion of participants reverting to normoglycaemia (HbA1c <6·0% [<42 mmol/mol] and FPG <5·5 mmol/L) at week 52 (assessed in all randomly assigned participants by intention to treat). Selective safety data were collected for participants who received at least one dose of study drug. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05040971, and is complete.

FINDINGS

Between Sept 16 and Dec 29, 2021, 138 participants were randomly assigned to semaglutide 2·4 mg and 69 to placebo. 147 (71%) were female and 60 (29%) were male; 183 (88%) were White. All randomly assigned participants received at least one dose of study drug. Baseline mean age was 53 years (SD 11), bodyweight 111·6 kg (22·2), BMI 40·1 kg/m2 (6·9), waist circumference 120·1 cm (14·7), HbA1c 5·9% (0·3; 41·3 mmol/mol [3·0]), and FPG 5·9 mmol/L (0·6). There was a significantly greater reduction in bodyweight with semaglutide 2·4 mg than with placebo at week 52 (-13·9% [SD 0·7] vs -2·7% [0·6]; estimated treatment difference -11·2% [95% CI -13·0 to -9·4]; p<0·0001). Greater proportions of participants reverted to normoglycaemia at week 52 with semaglutide 2·4 mg than with placebo (103 [81%] of 127 vs nine [14%] of 64; odds ratio 19·8 [95% CI 8·7 to 45·2]; p<0·0001). Serious adverse events occurred in 12 (9%) participants receiving semaglutide 2·4 mg versus six (9%) receiving placebo. Adverse events leading to treatment discontinuation occurred in eight (6%) participants in the semaglutide 2·4 mg group versus one (1%) participant in the placebo group. No new safety signals were reported.

INTERPRETATION

Semaglutide 2·4 mg provided superior reduction in bodyweight and reversion to normoglycaemia versus placebo in participants with obesity and prediabetes. The safety and tolerability profile was consistent with previous studies and with the GLP-1 receptor agonist class. These findings support the potential use of semaglutide 2·4 mg as a treatment option for individuals with obesity and prediabetes to achieve reversion to normoglycaemia.

FUNDING

Novo Nordisk.

TRANSLATION

For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Determinants of serious health outcome-free status in middle-aged and older people with dysglycaemia: Exploratory analysis of the ORIGIN trial

AIM

To assess clinical and biochemical measurements that can identify people with dysglycaemia (i.e. diabetes or pre-diabetes) who remain free of serious outcomes during follow-up.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted exploratory analyses using data from the Outcomes Reduction with an Initial Glargine Intervention (ORIGIN) study to identify independent determinants of outcome-free status in 12 537 middle-aged and older adults with prediabetes and early type 2 diabetes from 40 countries. Serious outcome-free status was defined as the absence of major cardiovascular outcomes, kidney or retinal outcomes, peripheral artery disease, dementia, cancer, any hospitalization, or death during follow-up.

RESULTS

In total, 3328 (26.6%) participants remained free of serious outcomes during a median follow-up of 6.2 years (IQR 5.8, 6.7). Independent clinical determinants of outcome-free status included younger age, female sex, non-White ethnicity, shorter diabetes duration, absence of previous cardiovascular disease, current or former smokers, higher grip strength, Mini-Mental State Examination score, and ankle-brachial index, lower body mass index and kidney disease index, and non-use of renin-angiotensin system drugs and beta-blockers. In a subset of 8401 people with baseline measurements of 238 biomarkers, growth differentiation factor 15, kidney injury molecule-1, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, uromodulin, C-reactive protein, factor VII and ferritin were independent determinants. The combination of clinical determinants and biomarkers best identified participants who remained outcome-free (C-statistics 0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.70-0.73; net reclassification improvement 0.55, 95% confidence interval 0.48-0.58).

CONCLUSIONS

A set of routinely measured clinical characteristics and seven protein biomarkers identify middle-aged and older people with prediabetes or early type 2 diabetes as least likely to experience serious outcomes during follow-up.

Participation in a multicomponent lifestyle intervention for people with obesity improves glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c)

Introduction

Obesity is associated with compromised glucose metabolism. Hence, it is of interest to investigate if the lifestyle interventions used in the LIBRA-cohort, which aimed at not only weight loss, but also patient well-being, could also help obese patients improve glucose metabolism by evidence of reduced HbA1c. The aim of the study was to retrospectively investigate if patients who were referred to a lifestyle intervention for obesity, were able to alter HbA1c.

Research design and methods

Patients with a BMI≥30 undergoing a 6-month lifestyle intervention, who also completed physical and mental health surveys and whose baseline and 6-month blood samples were available, were included in the analysis. For changes in HbA1c and body weight a clinically relevant change of 5≥mmom/mol and 5%≥, respectively, was chosen. Participants were divided into groups according to their baseline HbA1c level: "Diabetes": HbA1c of ≥6.5% (≥48 mmol/mol), "Prediabetes": HbA1c of 5.7% to 6.4% (39-47.99 mmol/mol) or "Normal" HbA1c <5.7% (<39 mmol/mol).

Results

180 patients met the stated inclusion criteria and these patients were divided into groups (median age (25th;75th quartile): Diabetes: n=47, age 54 (43;60), 51% women, Prediabetes: n=68, age 60 (50;66), 71% women and Normal: n=65, median age 61 (50;66), 85% women. Significant reductions were found in all three groups and specifically in the diabetes group HbA1c was reduced (mean [95%CI]) -5[-8;-2] mmol/mol from baseline to the end of the intervention. Furthermore, 35% of patients with prediabetes normalized their HbA1c (<39) and 30% patients with diabetes reduced their HbA1c <48. All groups had clinically relevant (≥5%) reductions in body weight (p<0.01). There was an association between body weight reduction and HbA1c reduction in the diabetes group (p<0.01). All groups reported improvements in physical health (p<0.01).

Conclusion

In this retrospective cohort study, all patients achieved clinically relevant weight loss after participation in the lifestyle intervention and obese patients with diabetes achieved clinically relevant reductions in HbA1c after 6-months. More than 1/3 of patients with prediabetes normalized their HbA1c.

Sex Differences in Cardiovascular Risk Associated With Prediabetes and Undiagnosed Diabetes

INTRODUCTION

Women with Type 2 diabetes (T2D) face up to 50% higher risk of cardiovascular disease than men. This study evaluated the extent to which prediabetes and undiagnosed T2D are associated with a greater excess risk of cardiovascular disease in women versus in men.

METHODS

Data were pooled from 18,745 cardiovascular disease-free individuals from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, and the Jackson Heart Study. The risk of coronary heart disease, ischemic stroke, and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease or stroke) associated with prediabetes or undiagnosed T2D was estimated using Cox models adjusting for sociodemographic factors, concomitant risk factors, medication use, and menopausal status. Data were collected in 2022, and the analysis was performed in 2023.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 18.6 years, the associations between prediabetes and risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease were only significant in women (hazard ratio=1.18, 95% CI=1.01, 1.34, p=0.03) but not in men (hazard ratio=1.08, 95% CI=1.00, 1.28, p=0.06) (p-interaction=0.18). The associations between undiagnosed T2D and cardiovascular disease outcomes were significant in both sexes, but the effect was more pronounced in women (coronary heart disease: hazard ratio=1.83, 95% CI=1.4, 2.41, p<0.0001 in women vs hazard ratio=1.6, 95% CI=1.38, 2.07, p=0.007 in men; stroke: hazard ratio=1.99, 95% CI=1.39, 2.72, p<0.0001 vs hazard ratio=1.81, 95% CI=1.36, 2.6, p<0.0001; atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: hazard ratio=1.86, 95% CI=1.5, 2.28, p<0.0001 vs hazard ratio=1.65, 95% CI=1.4, 1.98, p<0.0001) (all p-interactions≤0.2). Both White and Black patients exhibit similar sex differences.

CONCLUSIONS

Prediabetes or undiagnosed T2D was associated with a greater excess risk of cardiovascular disease in women than in men. The sex differential in cardiovascular disease risk among those without the T2D diagnosis suggests the need for sex-specific guidelines in T2D screening and treatment.

Risk of first-time major cardiovascular event among individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes: data from Danish registers

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We aimed to examine whether individuals with initial omission of glucose-lowering drug treatment (GLDT), including those achieving initial remission of type 2 diabetes, may experience a higher risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) compared with well-controlled individuals on GLDT after a new type 2 diabetes diagnosis in real-world clinical practice. Furthermore, we examined whether a higher risk could be related to lower initiation of statins and renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASi).

METHODS

In this cohort study, we used Danish registers to identify individuals with a first measured HbA1c between 48 and 57 mmol/mol (6.5-7.4%) from 2014 to 2020. Six months later, we divided participants into four groups according to GLDT and achieved HbA1c (<48 vs ≥48 mmol/mol [6.5%]): well-controlled and poorly controlled on GLDT; remission and persistent type 2 diabetes not on GLDT. We reported how much the standardised 5 year risk of MACE could be reduced for each group if initiation of statins and RASi was the same as in the well-controlled group on GLDT.

RESULTS

We included 14,221 individuals. Compared with well-controlled participants on GLDT, the 5 year standardised risk of MACE was higher in the three other exposure groups: by 3.3% (95% CI 1.6, 5.1) in the persistent type 2 diabetes group not on GLDT; 2.0% (95% CI 0.4, 3.7) in the remission group not on GLDT; and 3.5% (95% CI 1.3, 5.7) in the poorly controlled group on GLDT. Fewer individuals not on GLDT initiated statins and RASi compared with individuals on GLDT. If initiation of statins and RASi had been the same as in the well-controlled group on GLDT, participants not on GLDT could have reduced their risk of MACE by 2.1% (95% CI 1.2, 2.9) in the persistent type 2 diabetes group and by 1.1% (95% CI 0.4, 1.9) in the remission group.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Compared with well-controlled individuals on GLDT, individuals not on initial GLDT had a higher 5 year risk of MACE, even among those achieving remission of type 2 diabetes. This may be related to lower use of statins and RASi.

Predictive performance of established cardiovascular risk scores in the prediabetic population: external validation using the UK Biobank data set

AIMS

Prediabetes is a highly heterogenous metabolic state with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Current guidelines raised the necessity of CVD risk scoring for prediabetes without clear recommendations. Thus, this study aimed to systematically assess the performance of 11 models, including five general population-based and six diabetes-specific CVD risk scores, in prediabetes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A cohort of individuals aged 40-69 years with prediabetes (HbA1c ≥ 5.7 and <6.5%) and without baseline CVD or known diabetes was identified from the UK Biobank, which was used to validate 11 prediction models for estimating 10- or 5-year risk of CVD. Model discrimination and calibration were evaluated by Harrell's C-statistic and calibration plots, respectively. We further performed decision curve analyses to assess the clinical usefulness.Overall, 56 831 prediabetic individuals were included, of which 4303 incident CVD events occurred within a median follow-up of 8.9 years. All the 11 risk scores assessed had modest C-statistics for discrimination ranging from 0.647 to 0.680 in prediabetes. Scores developed in the general population did not outperform those diabetes-specific models (C-statistics, 0.647-0.675 vs. 0.647-0.680), while the PREDICT-1° Diabetes equation developed for Type 2 diabetes performed best [0.680 (95% confidence interval, 0.672-0.689)]. The calibration plots suggested overall poor calibration except that the PREDICT-1° Diabetes equation calibrated well after recalibration. The decision curves generally indicated moderate clinical usefulness of each model, especially worse within high threshold probabilities.

CONCLUSION

Neither risk stratification schemes for the general population nor those specific for Type 2 diabetes performed well in the prediabetic population. The PREDICT-1° Diabetes equation could be a substitute in the absence of better alternatives, rather than the general population-based scores. More precise and targeted risk assessment tools for this population remain to be established.

Risk of atrial fibrillation in individuals with dysglycemia and diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Diabetes is a risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), and increases the risk of thromboembolic events in persons with AF. However, the link between the two conditions is not fully elucidated. Few studies have investigated the association of dysglycemia and incident AF. We investigated the risk of incident AF and prognosis according to diabetes status.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The Copenhagen Primary Care Laboratory Database was merged with data on medical prescriptions, in- and outpatient contacts and vital status. The risk of AF according to diabetes status was investigated by use of Cox regression models.

RESULTS

Of 354.807 individuals with a hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) measurement, 28.541 (8 %) had known diabetes, 13.038 (4 %) had new onset diabetes and 27.754 (8 %) had prediabetes (HbA1c 42-47 mmol/mol). Persons with dysglycemia (HbA1c > 42 mmol/mol) and diabetes were older, more were men, they had lower level of education and were more likely to be living alone. We observed a gradual increase in risk of developing AF from HbA1c levels of 40 to 60 mmol/mol. In adjusted analyses we found a stepwise increase in hazard of AF from normoglycemia over prediabetes to persons with diabetes (no diabetes: 1.00 [ref.]; prediabetes: 1.12 [1.08-1.16]; new-onset diabetes: 1.16 [1.10-1.22]; known diabetes: 1.15 [1.11-1.20]). Persons with known diabetes had a significant higher hazard of stroke, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSION

Increasing levels of HbA1c were associated with an increased hazard of developing AF. Persons with new onset of diabetes and those with known diabetes had similar hazard of developing AF, however persons with known diabetes had a significant higher hazard of stroke, cardiovascular- and all-cause mortality.

Risk of pancreatic cancer in people with new-onset diabetes: A Danish nationwide population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

New onset diabetes (NOD) in people 50 years or older may indicate underlying pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). The cumulative incidence of PDAC among people with NOD remains uncertain on a population-based level.

METHODS

This was a nationwide population-based retrospective cohort study based on the Danish national health registries. We investigated the 3-year cumulative incidence of PDAC in people 50 years or older with NOD. We further characterised people with pancreatic cancer-related diabetes (PCRD) in relation to demographic and clinical characteristics, including trajectories of routine biochemical parameters, using people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) as a comparator group.

RESULTS

During a 21-year observation period, we identified 353,970 people with NOD. Among them, 2105 people were subsequently diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 3 years (0.59%, 95% CI [0.57-0.62%]). People with PCRD were older than people with T2D at diabetes diagnosis (median age 70.9 vs. 66.0 years (P < 0.001) and had a higher burden of comorbidities (P = 0.007) and more prescriptions of medications used to treat cardiovascular diseases (all P < 0.001). Distinct trajectories of HbA1c and plasma triglycerides were observed in PCRD vs. T2D, with group differences observed for up to three years prior to NOD diagnosis for HbA1c and up to two years for plasma triglyceride levels.

CONCLUSIONS

The 3-year cumulative incidence of PDAC is approximately 0.6% among people 50 years or older with NOD in a nationwide population-based setting. Compared to T2D, people with PCRD are characterised by distinct demographic and clinical profiles, including distinctive trajectories of plasma HbA1c and triglyceride levels.

Prediabetes is associated with a higher serum neurofilament light chain level in adolescents

Objective

Serum neurofilament light chain (sNfL) level, which is a biomarker indicative of neuroaxonal damage and cognitive impairment, has been reported in several neurological diseases. There has been a lack of studies on the association between sNfL levels and prediabetes in adolescents. This study investigated whether sNfL levels were higher in adolescents with prediabetes undergoing elective orthopedic surgery.

Methods

The sNfL level was measured in 149 adolescents aged from 12 to 18 years who underwent elective orthopedic surgery at the Hunan Children's Hospital (18 with and 131 without prediabetes). We evaluated the association between prediabetes and sNfL level after adjusting for age, sex, and triglycerides using a multivariable linear regression model.

Results

The prevalence of prediabetes in adolescents was 12.08%. Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that prediabetes was related to sNfL. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, the association between prediabetes with sNfL levels remained significant after adjustment for age, sex, and triglyceride. The relationship between the two was further visualized by a smoothed curve.

Conclusions

Prediabetes is associated with a higher sNfL. Further large-scale and prospective studies are needed to verify the clinical application of sNfL as a monitoring biomarker for adolescent prediabetes in adolescents and to evaluate the performance of sNfL in predicting the incidence of neuropathy and cognitive dysfunction in adolescents with prediabetes.

Criteria for prediabetes and posttransplant diabetes mellitus after kidney transplantation: A 2-year diagnostic accuracy study of participants from a randomized controlled trial

Posttransplant diabetes mellitus (PTDM) and prediabetes (impaired glucose tolerance [IGT] and impaired fasting glucose [IFG]) are associated with cardiovascular events. We assessed the diagnostic performance of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and HbA1c as alternatives to oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT)-derived 2-hour plasma glucose (2hPG) using sensitivity and specificity in 263 kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) from a clinical trial. Between visits at 6, 12, and 24 months after transplantation, 28%-31% of patients switched glycemic category (normal glucose tolerance [NGT], IGT/IFG, PTDM). Correlations of FPG and HbA1c against 2hPG were lower at 6 months (r = 0.59 [FPG against 2hPG]; r = 0.45 [HbA1c against 2hPG]) vs. 24 months (r = 0.73 [FPG against 2hPG]; r = 0.74 [HbA1c against 2hPG]). Up to 69% of 2hPG-defined PTDM cases were missed by conventional HbA1c and FPG thresholds. For prediabetes, concordance of FPG and HbA1c with 2hPG ranged from 6%-9%. In conclusion, in our well-defined randomized trial cohort, one-third of KTRs switched glycemic category over 2 years and although the correlations of FPG and HbA1c with 2hPG improved with time, their diagnostic concordance was poor for PTDM and, especially, prediabetes. Considering posttransplant metabolic instability, FPG's and HbA1c 's diagnostic performance, the OGTT remains indispensable to diagnose PTDM and prediabetes after kidney transplantation.

The Progression of Prediabetes to Type 2 Diabetes in Children and Adolescents in the United States: Current Challenges and Solutions

Prediabetes, the precursor of type 2 diabetes (T2D), is on the rise among children and adolescents in the United States. The natural history of prediabetes is poorly characterized in children compared to adults. The available data indicate a phenotype of an accelerated β-cell failure in youth with prediabetes. Data from randomized controlled trials showed no benefit on β-cell preservation or A1c in youth with prediabetes from therapeutic agents such as metformin and insulin. As a result, the American Diabetes Association recommends only lifestyle intervention, but not therapeutic agents, for the management of prediabetes in children and adolescents. These recommendations for lifestyle modification in youth, largely derived from data in adults, lack the precision necessary for efficacy in youth. However, a recent 4-year real-world study on youth reported that adherence to nutrition visits was associated with a 4-fold reduction in the likelihood of progressing from prediabetes to T2D. The finding that this reversal is associated with reduced insulin resistance (IR) and not with decreased body weight is novel and provides the foundation for trialing investigational products that may protect β-cells and reduce IR and/or body weight. This study provides the much-needed foundation for further exploration of the impact of lifestyle modification in conjunction with other approaches for the reversal of prediabetes in youth. The systematization of the protocol for medical nutrition therapy for the reversal of prediabetes in youth will ensure optimal and consistent results from adherent patients. This communication provides updates on the pathobiology of prediabetes in youth and a clear direction for efficacious studies in the field.

Management of dyslipidemia and atherosclerotic cardiovascular risk in prediabetes

Prediabetes affects at least 1 in 3 adults in the U.S. and 1 in 5 in Europe. Although guidelines advocate aggressive management of lipid parameters in diabetes, most guidelines do not address treatment of dyslipidemia in prediabetes despite the increased atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Several criteria are used to diagnose prediabetes: impaired fasting glucose (IFG), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and HbA1c of 5.7-6.4%. Individuals with prediabetes have a greater risk of diabetes, a higher prevalence of dyslipidemia with a more atherogenic lipid profile and an increased risk of ASCVD. In addition to calculating ASCVD risk using traditional methods, an OGTT may further stratify risk. Those with 1-hour plasma glucose ≥8.6 mmol/L (155 mg/dL) and/or 2-hour ≥7.8 mmol/L (140 mg/dL) (IGT) have a greater risk of ASCVD. Diet and lifestyle modification are fundamental in prediabetes. Statins, ezetimibe and PCSK9 inhibitors are recommended in people requiring pharmacotherapy. Although high-intensity statins may increase risk of diabetes, this is acceptable because of the greater reduction of ASCVD. The LDL-C goal in prediabetes should be individualized. In those with IGT and/or elevated 1-hour plasma glucose, the same intensive approach to dyslipidemia as recommended for diabetes should be considered, particularly if other ASCVD risk factors are present.