Brand-specific estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness for the 2021-2022 season in Europe: results from the DRIVE multi-stakeholder study platform

Introduction

Development of Robust and Innovative Vaccine Effectiveness (DRIVE) was a European public-private partnership (PPP) that aimed to provide annual, brand-specific estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) for regulatory and public health purposes. DRIVE was launched in 2017 under the umbrella of the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) and conducted IVE studies from its pilot season in 2017-2018 to its final season in 2021-2022.

Methods

In 2021-2022, DRIVE conducted four primary care-based test-negative design (TND) studies (Austria, Italy, Iceland, and England; involving >1,000 general practitioners), nine hospital-based TND studies (France, Iceland, Italy, Romania, and Spain, for a total of 21 hospitals), and one population-based cohort study in Finland. In the TND studies, patients with influenza-like illness (primary care) or severe acute respiratory infection (hospital) were enrolled, and laboratory tested for influenza using RT-PCR. Study contributor-specific IVE was calculated using logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, and calendar time, and pooled by meta-analysis.

Results

In 2021-2022, pooled confounder-adjusted influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) estimates against laboratory-confirmed influenza (LCI) overall and per type and subtype/lineage was produced, albeit with wide confidence intervals (CI). The limited circulation of influenza in Europe did not allow the network to reach the optimal sample size to produce precise IVE estimates for all the brands included. The most significant IVE estimates were 76% (95% CI 23%-93%) for any vaccine and 81% (22%-95%) for Vaxigrip Tetra in adults ≥65 years old and 64% (25%-83%) for Fluenz Tetra in children (TND primary care setting), 85% (12%-97%) for any vaccine in adults 18-64 years (TND hospital setting), and 38% (1%-62%) in children 6 months-6 years (population-based cohort, mixed setting).

Discussion

Over five seasons, DRIVE collected data on >35,000 patients, more than 60 variables, and 13 influenza vaccines. DRIVE demonstrated that estimating brand-specific IVE across Europe is possible, but achieving sufficient sample size to obtain precise estimates for all relevant stratifications remains a challenge. Finally, DRIVE's network of study contributors and lessons learned have greatly contributed to the development of the COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness platform COVIDRIVE.

Roles for Pathogen Interference in Influenza Vaccination, with Implications to Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) and Attribution of Influenza Deaths

Pathogen interference is the ability of one pathogen to alter the course and clinical outcomes of infection by another. With up to 3000 species of human pathogens the potential combinations are vast. These combinations operate within further immune complexity induced by infection with multiple persistent pathogens, and by the role which the human microbiome plays in maintaining health, immune function, and resistance to infection. All the above are further complicated by malnutrition in children and the elderly. Influenza vaccination offers a measure of protection for elderly individuals subsequently infected with influenza. However, all vaccines induce both specific and non-specific effects. The specific effects involve stimulation of humoral and cellular immunity, while the nonspecific effects are far more nuanced including changes in gene expression patterns and production of small RNAs which contribute to pathogen interference. Little is known about the outcomes of vaccinated elderly not subsequently infected with influenza but infected with multiple other non-influenza winter pathogens. In this review we propose that in certain years the specific antigen mix in the seasonal influenza vaccine inadvertently increases the risk of infection from other non-influenza pathogens. The possibility that vaccination could upset the pathogen balance, and that the timing of vaccination relative to the pathogen balance was critical to success, was proposed in 2010 but was seemingly ignored. Persons vaccinated early in the winter are more likely to experience higher pathogen interference. Implications to the estimation of vaccine effectiveness and influenza deaths are discussed.

The Sentiworld project: global mapping of sentinel surveillance networks in general practice

BACKGROUND

Sentinel networks composed of general practitioners (GPs) represent a powerful tool for epidemiologic surveillance and ad-hoc studies. Globalization necesitates greater international cooperation among sentinel networks. The aim of this study was to inventory GP sentinel networks involved in epidemiological surveillance on a global scale.

METHODS

GP sentinel surveillance networks were inventoried globally between July 2016 and December 2019. Each identified network was required to fill out an electronic descriptive survey for inclusion.

RESULTS

A total of 148 networks were identified as potential surveillance networks in general practice and were contacted. Among them, 48 were included in the study. Geographically, 33 networks (68.8%) were located in Europe and 38 (79.2%) had national coverage. The number of GPs registered in these networks represented between 0.1 and 100% of the total number of GPs in the network's country or region, with a median of 2.5%. All networks were involved in continuous epidemiologic surveillance and 47 (97.9%) monitored influenza-like illness. Data collection methods were paper-based forms (n = 26, 55.3%), electronic forms on a dedicated website (n = 18, 38.3%), electronic forms on a dedicated software program (n = 14, 29.8%), and direct extraction from electronic medical records (n = 14, 29.8%). Along with this study, a website has been created to share all data collected.

CONCLUSIONS

This study represents the first global geographic mapping of GP sentinel surveillance networks. By sharing this information, collaboration between networks will be easier, which can strengthen the quality of international epidemiologic surveillance. In the face of crises like that of COVID-19, this is more imperative than ever before.

Evaluation of the Real-World Effectiveness of Vaccines against COVID-19 at a Local Level: Protocol for a Test-Negative Case-Control Study

Vaccines against COVID-19 approved for use in the EU/EEA have been shown to be highly effective against wild-type SARS-CoV-2. However, their effectiveness against new variants may be reduced. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19 in the prevention of symptomatic and severe disease, during pre- and post-omicron phases. Individuals who sought treatment at the emergency department of a Portuguese hospital with COVID-19-like disease and were tested for SARS-CoV-2 are the subjects of the study. Patients who received a positive result are considered cases, while those with negative results are the controls. The test-negative case–control method is one of the study designs recommended by WHO to estimate the effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19. The main advantage of this design is that it controls for the healthcare seeking bias, commonly present in traditional cohort and case–control designs. This study may have broad implications for understanding the real-world performance of the COVID-19 vaccines at the local level, which may play a key role in promoting adherence to vaccination. Moreover, this study may contribute to inform decisions regarding booster doses and variant-specific vaccine formulations leading to the control of this and future pandemics.

No effect modification of influenza virus vaccine effectiveness by age or chronic condition was observed in the 2010/11 to 2017/18 seasons

PURPOSE

Most European influenza vaccine strategies target individuals at higher risk of complications, which include, among others, individuals aged ≥65 years and with chronic conditions. These individuals not only have a high-risk of post-infection complications but also could have lower capacity of acquiring adequate vaccine-induced protection. As such, chronic conditions and age could modify the effect of vaccines. This study aimed at assessing the potential effect modification of influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) by age and chronic conditions.

METHODS

We used eight-season data from the Portuguese vaccine effectiveness study. Every season, physicians at primary care units recruited patients with influenza-like illness. Clinical data and swabs were collected for Reverse Transverse Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) detection of influenza. Trivalent inactivated IVE was estimated as 1 - odds ratio (OR) of being vaccinated in cases (RT-PCR positive for influenza) versus negative controls. ORs were obtained using a multivariable conditional logistic regression model, paired by week of onset within each season. Confounders were assessed by designing a specific causal diagram. Age (< 65 or ≥65 years) and chronic conditions (diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic renal disease, chronic hepatic disease, obesity, chronic respiratory disease, and congenital or acquired immunodeficiency) were studied as effect modifiers by including an interaction term in the regression models. Significance was established at 5%.

RESULTS

Point estimates indicate a higher IVE in the chronic condition strata compared to that in the no chronic condition strata. Regarding age, different results were obtained considering the virus type and (sub)type. When comparing the ≥65 years with the <65 years of age strata, we observed a higher IVE against A(H1N1)pdm09, an equal IVE against A(H3N2) and a lower IVE against B virus. However, all interaction terms were statistically insignificant, and this may be due to a small sample size.

CONCLUSION

The potential effect modification of age or chronic condition was not observed within our study.

The burden of influenza in older adults: meeting the challenge

Influenza is an acute respiratory infection for which vaccination is our best prevention strategy. Small seasonal changes in circulating influenza viruses (antigenic drift) result in the need for annual influenza vaccination, in which the vaccine formulation is updated to better match the predominant circulating influenza viruses that have undergone important antigenic changes. Although the burden of influenza infection and its complications is the highest in older adults, vaccine effectiveness is the lowest in this vulnerable population. This is largely due to waning of the immune response with age known as "immune senescence", and presents an important, unmet challenge. Possible strategies to tackle this include adjuvant and high-dose vaccines, and herd immunity induced by greater vaccine uptake.

Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Childhood Vaccination Against Seasonal Influenza in Germany

OBJECTIVES

In Germany, routine influenza vaccination with quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIV) is recommended and reimbursed for individuals ≥60 years of age and individuals with underlying chronic conditions. The present study examines the cost-effectiveness of a possible extension of the recommendation to include strategies of childhood vaccination against seasonal influenza using QIV.

METHODS

A dynamic transmission model was used to examine the epidemiological impact of different childhood vaccination strategies. The outputs were used in a health economic decision tree to calculate the costs per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from a societal and a third-party payer (TPP) perspective. Strain-specific epidemiology, vaccine uptake, and vaccine efficacy data from the 10 non-pandemic seasons from 2003/2004 to 2013/2014 were used, and cost data were drawn mainly from a health insurance claims data analysis and supplemented by estimates from literature. Uncertainty is explored via scenario, deterministic, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Vaccinating 2- to 9-year-olds with QIV assuming a vaccine uptake of 40% is cost-saving with a benefit-cost ratio of 1.66 from a societal perspective and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €998/QALY from a TPP perspective. Lower and higher vaccine uptakes show marginal effects, while extending the target group to 2- to 17-year-olds further increases the health benefits while still being below the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold. Assuming no vaccine-induced herd protection has a negative effect on the cost-effectiveness ratio, but childhood vaccination remains cost-effective.

CONCLUSION

Routine childhood vaccination against seasonal influenza in Germany is most likely to be cost-saving from a societal perspective and highly cost-effective from a TPP perspective.

Effect of aging on immunogenicity and efficacy of inactivated influenza vaccines in cotton rats Sigmodon hispidus

Inactivated influenza vaccines are known to be less immunogenic in human elderly in regards to serologic antibody response induced by vaccination. Accumulating evidence, however, points to a comparable effectiveness of influenza vaccines in the young and the elderly individuals. In the current study, we assessed immunogenicity and effectiveness of trivalent inactivated vaccine FluLaval in young and aged cotton rats Sigmodon hispidus and found that while serologic response to immunization was indeed reduced in older animals, comparable protection against influenza infection was afforded by prime-boost vaccination in both young and aged cotton rats. Both hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) titers and seroconversion rates were lower in the aged animals compared to the young ones. Reduction of viral load in the lung and nose, however, was comparable between young and aged animals vaccinated twice. One-time immunization with FluLaval was less efficacious at protecting the nose of aged animals, indicating that boosting of preexisting immunity can be particularly important for nasal protection in the elderly. Coincidentally, a one-time immunization with FluLaval had a detrimental effect on pulmonary pathology in the young animals, suggesting that boosting of immunity is essential for the young as well. Overall, these results suggest that reduced antibody response to and sufficient efficacy of influenza vaccines in the elderly are not two irreconcilable phenomena and that incomplete immunity to influenza can be detrimental at any age.

The Use of Test-negative Controls to Monitor Vaccine Effectiveness: A Systematic Review of Methodology

BACKGROUND

The test-negative design is an increasingly popular approach for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) due to its efficiency. This review aims to examine published test-negative design studies of VE and to explore similarities and differences in methodological choices for different diseases and vaccines.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search on PubMed, Web of Science, and Medline, for studies reporting the effectiveness of any vaccines using a test-negative design. We screened titles and abstracts and reviewed full texts to identify relevant articles. We created a standardized form for each included article to extract information on the pathogen of interest, vaccine(s) being evaluated, study setting, clinical case definition, choices of cases and controls, and statistical approaches used to estimate VE.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 348 articles, including studies on VE against influenza virus (n = 253), rotavirus (n = 48), pneumococcus (n = 24), and nine other pathogens. Clinical case definitions used to enroll patients were similar by pathogens of interest but the sets of symptoms that defined them varied substantially. Controls could be those testing negative for the pathogen of interest, those testing positive for nonvaccine type of the pathogen of interest, or a subset of those testing positive for alternative pathogens. Most studies controlled for age, calendar time, and comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review highlights similarities and differences in the application of the test-negative design that deserve further examination. If vaccination reduces disease severity in breakthrough infections, particular care must be taken in interpreting vaccine effectiveness estimates from test-negative design studies.

Impact of influenza vaccination on healthcare utilization - A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Although a vaccine-preventable disease, influenza causes approximately 3-5 million cases of severe illness and about 290,000-650,000 deaths worldwide, which occur primarily among people 65 years and older. Nonetheless, prevention of influenza and its complications rely mainly on vaccination. We aimed to systematically evaluate influenza vaccine effectiveness at reducing healthcare utilization in older adults, defined as the reduction of outpatient visits, ILI and influenza hospitalizations, utilization of antibiotics and cardiovascular events by vaccination status during the influenza season.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Library and considered any seasonal influenza vaccine, excluding the pandemic (2009-10 season) vaccine. Reviewers independently assessed data extraction and quality assessment.

RESULTS

Of the 8308 citations retrieved, 22 studies were included in the systematic review. Overall, two studies (9%) were deemed at moderate risk of bias, thirteen (59%) at serious risk of bias and seven (32%) at critical risk of bias. For outpatient visits, we found modest evidence of protection by the influenza vaccine. For all-cause hospitalization outcomes, we found a wide range of results, mostly deemed at serious risk of bias. The included studies suggested that the vaccine may protect older adults against influenza hospitalizations and cardiovascular events. No article meeting our inclusion criteria explored the use of antibiotics and ILI hospitalizations. The high heterogeneity between studies hindered the aggregation of data into a meta-analysis.

CONCLUSION

The variability between studies prevented us from drawing a clear conclusion on the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine on healthcare utilization in older adults. Overall, the data suggests that the vaccine may result in a reduction of healthcare utilization in the older population. Further studies of higher quality are necessary.

Effectiveness of inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine in the 2015/2016 season as assessed in both a test-negative case-control study design and a traditional case-control study design

Both traditional case-control studies (TCCSs) and test-negative case-control studies (TNCCSs) are commonly used to assess influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). To compensate for the fact that observational studies are susceptible to bias, we combined both methods to assess VE in one geographical area during the 2015/2016 season, when influenza A (H1N1)pdm was dominant. Our TNCCS covered 331 children aged 6 months to 15 years who visited our hospital with fever, including 182 with influenza, and our TCCS covered 812 pediatric outpatients aged 6 months to 15 years, including 214 with influenza. Influenza infection and vaccination history were reviewed, and VE was calculated as (1 - odds ratio) × 100. In the TNCCS, VE against influenza A was 68% (95% CI 47-81) overall, and 70% (48-83) for those given two doses; against influenza B, VE was 37% (- 12-64) overall and 49% (2-74) for two doses. In the TCCS, VE against influenza A was 44% (15-63) overall and 44% (13-64) for two doses, and VE against influenza B was 24% (- 19-52) overall and 41% (3-64) for two doses.

CONCLUSION

Both studies confirmed significant VE against influenza A, significant two-dose VE against influenza B, and better two-dose VE than one-dose VE. What is Known: • Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) varies from year to year. • Observational studies are conventionally used for VE assessment. However, they are inherently susceptible to bias and confounding. What is New: • This is the first report of influenza VE assessment using more than one observational study and performed in a specific area during the same season. • VE estimates obtained in our traditional case-control study were lower than those in our test-negative case-control study, but both studies found significant VE against influenza.

Basic principles of test-negative design in evaluating influenza vaccine effectiveness

Based on the unique characteristics of influenza, the concept of "monitoring" influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) across the seasons using the same observational study design has been developed. In recent years, there has been a growing number of influenza VE reports using the test-negative design, which can minimize both misclassification of diseases and confounding by health care-seeking behavior. Although the test-negative designs offer considerable advantages, there are some concerns that widespread use of the test-negative design without knowledge of the basic principles of epidemiology could produce invalid findings. In this article, we briefly review the basic concepts of the test-negative design with respect to classic study design such as cohort studies or case-control studies. We also mention selection bias, which may be of concern in some countries where rapid diagnostic testing is frequently used in routine clinical practices, as in Japan.

Observational studies and the difficult quest for causality: lessons from vaccine effectiveness and impact studies

Although randomized placebo-controlled trials (RCT) are critical to establish efficacy of vaccines at the time of licensure, important remaining questions about vaccine effectiveness (VE)-used here to include individual-level measures and population-wide impact of vaccine programmes-can only be answered once the vaccine is in use, from observational studies. However, such studies are inherently at risk for bias. Using a causal framework and illustrating with examples, we review newer approaches to detecting and avoiding confounding and selection bias in three major classes of observational study design: cohort, case-control and ecological studies. Studies of influenza VE, especially in seniors, are an excellent demonstration of the challenges of detecting and reducing such bias, and so we use influenza VE as a running example. We take a fresh look at the time-trend studies often dismissed as 'ecological'. Such designs are the only observational study design that can measure the overall effect of a vaccination programme [indirect (herd) as well as direct effects], and are in fact already an important part of the evidence base for several vaccines currently in use. Despite the great strides towards more robust observational study designs, challenges lie ahead for evaluating best practices for achieving robust unbiased results from observational studies. This is critical for evaluation of national and global vaccine programme effectiveness.

Influenza in Older Adults

Annually, influenza viruses cause significant disease in older adults, varying with the virulence of the circulating strain, prior exposure to circulating strain, and influenza vaccine effectiveness. Older adults often present atypically (eg, without fever) and with complications of influenza infection such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and congestive heart failure exacerbations. Prevention methods include antiviral medications and vaccines. Current influenza vaccines have moderate effectiveness for the prevention of hospitalization, but newer more immunogenic vaccines designed for adults 65 years of age and older have been licensed.

Vaccine epidemiology: Its role in promoting sound immunization programs in Japan

In Japan, the Vaccine Epidemiology Research Group created by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare has played an important role in demonstrating the solid scientific basis for vaccine efficacy and safety since 2002. Members of the group, including epidemiologists, clinicians and microbiologists, have been conducting collaborative studies on vaccines for influenza, pertussis, rotavirus gastroenteritis, polio and pneumonia. So far, the group has achieved several works and contributed to the national vaccination program, including research on the immunogenicity of low doses of influenza vaccine among young children, the immunogenicity and effectiveness of the 2009 influenza pandemic vaccine among various risk groups, the interchangeability of live/inactivated polio vaccines, the health impact of influenza on pregnant women, and the monitoring of influenza vaccine effectiveness using case-control studies with a test-negative design. As part of the 18th Annual Meeting of the Japanese Society of Vaccinology, these accomplishments were featured in the Vaccine Epidemiology Symposium. This report summarizes the recent epidemiological studies on vaccine in Japan as a prologue to the next six papers collected from the symposium.

Evaluating the case-positive, control test-negative study design for influenza vaccine effectiveness for the frailty bias

INTRODUCTION

Previous influenza vaccine effectiveness studies were criticized for their failure to control for frailty. This study was designed to see if the test-negative study design overcomes this bias.

METHODS

Adults ≥ 50 years of age with respiratory symptoms were enrolled from November 2006 through May 2012 during the influenza season (excluding the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic season) to perform yearly test-negative control influenza vaccine effectiveness studies in Nashville, TN. At enrollment, both a nasal and throat swab sample were obtained and tested for influenza by RT-PCR. Frailty was calculated using a modified Rockwood Index that included 60 variables ascertained in a retrospective chart review giving a score of 0 to 1. Subjects were divided into three strata: non frail (≤ 0.08), pre-frail (> 0.08 to < 0.25), and frail (≥ 0.25). Vaccine effectiveness was calculated using the formula [1-adjusted odds ratio (OR)] × 100%. Adjusted ORs for individual years and all years combined were estimated by penalized multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of 1023 hospitalized adults enrolled, 866 (84.7%) participants had complete immunization status, molecular influenza testing and covariates to calculate frailty. There were 83 influenza-positive cases and 783 test-negative controls overall, who were 74% white, 25% black, and 59% female. The median frailty index was 0.167 (Interquartile: 0.117, 0.267). The frailty index was 0.167 (0.100, 0.233) for the influenza positive cases compared to 0.183 (0.133, 0.267) for influenza negative controls (p = 0.07). Vaccine effectiveness estimates were 55.2% (95%CI: 30.5, 74.2), 60.4% (95%CI: 29.5, 74.4), and 54.3% (95%CI: 28.8, 74.0) without the frailty variable, including frailty as a continuous variable, and including frailty as a categorical variable, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Using the case positive test negative study design to assess vaccine effectiveness, our measure of frailty was not a significant confounder as inclusion of this measure did not significantly change vaccine effectiveness estimates.

Seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates: Development of a parsimonious case test negative model using a causal approach

BACKGROUND

Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) is increasingly estimated using the case-test negative study design. Cases have a symptom complex consistent with influenza and test positive for influenza, while non-cases have the same symptom complex but test negative. We aimed to determine a parsimonious logistic regression model for this study design when applied to patients in the community.

METHODS

To determine the minimum covariate set required, we used a previously published systematic review to find covariates and restriction criteria commonly included in case-test negative logistic regression models. Covariates were assessed for inclusion using a directed acyclic graph. We used data from the Victorian Influenza Sentinel Practice Network from 2007 to 2013, excluding the pandemic year of 2009, to test the model. VE was estimated as (1-adjusted OR) * 100%. Changes in model fit from addition of specified covariates were examined. Restriction criteria were examined using change in VE estimate. VE was estimated for each year, all years aggregated, and for influenza type and sub-type.

RESULTS

Using publicly available software, the directed acyclic graph indicated that covariates specifying age, time within the influenza season, immunocompromising comorbid conditions and year or study site, where applicable, were required for closure. The inclusion of sex was not required. Inclusions and exclusions were validated when testing the variables (when collected) with our data. Restriction by time between onset and swab was supported by the data. VE for all years aggregated was estimated as 53% (95%CI 38, 64). VE was estimated as 42% (95%CI 19, 59) for H3N2, 75% (95%CI 51, 88) for H1N1pdm09 and 63% (95%CI 38, 79) for influenza B.

CONCLUSION

Theoretical covariates specified by the directed acyclic graph were validated when tested against surveillance data. A parsimonious model using the case test negative design allows regular estimates of VE and aggregated estimates by year.

The European I-MOVE Multicentre 2013-2014 Case-Control Study. Homogeneous moderate influenza vaccine effectiveness against A(H1N1)pdm09 and heterogenous results by country against A(H3N2)

BACKGROUND

In the first five I-MOVE (Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe) influenza seasons vaccine effectiveness (VE) results were relatively homogenous among participating study sites. In 2013-2014, we undertook a multicentre case-control study based on sentinel practitioner surveillance networks in six European Union (EU) countries to measure 2013-2014 influenza VE against medically-attended influenza-like illness (ILI) laboratory-confirmed as influenza. Influenza A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses co-circulated during the season.

METHODS

Practitioners systematically selected ILI patients to swab within eight days of symptom onset. We compared cases (ILI positive to influenza A(H3N2) or A(H1N1)pdm09) to influenza negative patients. We calculated VE for the two influenza A subtypes and adjusted for potential confounders. We calculated heterogeneity between sites using the I(2) index and Cochrane's Q test. If the I(2) was <50%, we estimated pooled VE as (1 minus the OR)×100 using a one-stage model with study site as a fixed effect. If the I(2) was >49% we used a two-stage random effects model.

RESULTS

We included in the A(H1N1)pdm09 analysis 531 cases and 1712 controls and in the A(H3N2) analysis 623 cases and 1920 controls. For A(H1N1)pdm09, the Q test (p=0.695) and the I(2) index (0%) suggested no heterogeneity of adjusted VE between study sites. Using a one-stage model, the overall pooled adjusted VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm2009 was 47.5% (95% CI: 16.4-67.0). For A(H3N2), the I(2) was 51.5% (p=0.067). Using a two-stage model for the pooled analysis, the adjusted VE against A(H3N2) was 29.7 (95% CI: -34.4-63.2).

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest a moderate 2013-2014 influenza VE against A(H1N1)pdm09 and a low VE against A(H3N2). The A(H3N2) estimates were heterogeneous among study sites. Larger sample sizes by study site are needed to prevent statistical heterogeneity, decrease variability and allow for two-stage pooled VE for all subgroup analyses.

Application of the screening method to monitor influenza vaccine effectiveness among the elderly in Germany

Background

Elderly people are at increased risk for severe influenza illness and constitute therefore a major target-group for seasonal influenza vaccination in most industrialized countries. The aim of this study was to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) among individuals aged 60+ years over three seasons and to assess if the screening method is a suitable tool to monitor influenza VE in this particular target-group in Germany.

Methods

We identified laboratory-confirmed influenza cases aged 60+ years through the national communicable disease reporting system for seasons 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13. Vaccination coverage (VC) data were retrieved from a database of health insurance claims representing ~85% of the total German population. We applied the screening method to calculate influenza subtype-specific VE and compared our results with VE estimates from other observational studies in Europe.

Results

In total, 7,156 laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were included. VE against all influenza types ranged between 49% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 39–56) in 2011/12 and 80% (95% CI: 76-83%) in 2010/11. In 2010/11 subtype-specific VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm and B was 76% and 84%, respectively. In the following seasons, VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm, A(H3N2) and B was 87%, -9% , 74% (2011/12), and 74%, 39%, 73% (2012/13). VE was higher among hospitalized compared to non-hospitalized influenza A cases. Seventeen observational studies from Europe reporting subtype-specific VE among the elderly were identified for the respective seasons (all applying the test-negative design) and showed comparable subtype-specific VE estimates.

Conclusions

According to our study, influenza vaccination provided moderate protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm and B in individuals aged 60+ but no or only little protection against A(H3N2). Higher VE among hospitalized cases might indicate higher protection against severe influenza disease. Based on the available data, the screening method allowed us to assess subtype-specific VE in hospitalized and non-hospitalized elderly persons. Since controlling for several important confounders was not possible, the applied method only provided crude VE estimates. However, given the precise VC-data and the large number of cases, the screening method provided results being in line with VE estimates from other observational studies in Europe that applied a different study design.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-015-0882-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Vaccines for the prevention of seasonal influenza in patients with diabetes: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Patients with diabetes are at increased risk of severe influenza disease; influenza vaccination for these patients is therefore recommended by the World Health Organization and several National Immunization Technical Advisory Groups. However, no systematic review has evaluated the effects of influenza vaccines for patients with diabetes.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis by searching Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception until November 2014. We included all types of studies reporting on the efficacy, effectiveness, and/or safety of influenza vaccination in patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes of all ages. We used the Newcastle-Ottawa scale to assess risk of bias in observational studies. Residual confounding was addressed by comparing estimates of vaccine effectiveness (VE) during influenza seasons to those obtained during off-seasons. Quality of the evidence for each outcome was assessed using the GRADE methodology.

RESULTS

Following review of 1,444 articles, 11 observational studies with a total of 170,924 participants were included. In diabetic patients of working-age (18-64 years), influenza vaccination prevented all-cause hospitalization with a pooled VE of 58% (95% CI, 6-81%) and hospitalization due to influenza or pneumonia (VE 43%; 95% CI, 28-54%), whereas no effects on all-cause mortality and influenza-like illness (ILI) were observed. In the elderly (65+), influenza vaccination prevented all-cause mortality (VE 38%; 95% CI, 32-43%), all-cause hospitalization (VE 23%; 95% CI, 1-40%), hospitalization due to influenza or pneumonia (VE 45%; 95% CI, 34-53%), and ILI (VE 13%; 95% CI, 10-16%). However, significant off-season estimates for several outcomes indicated residual confounding, particularly in elderly patients. Quality of the evidence was low to very low for all outcomes. Laboratory-confirmed influenza infections were not reported.

CONCLUSIONS

Due to strong residual confounding in most of the identified studies, the available evidence is insufficient to determine the magnitude of benefit that diabetic people derive from seasonal influenza vaccination. Adequately powered randomized controlled trials or quasi-experimental studies using laboratory-confirmed influenza-specific outcomes are urgently needed.

Meeting the International Health Regulations (2005) surveillance core capacity requirements at the subnational level in Europe: the added value of syndromic surveillance

Background

The revised World Health Organization’s International Health Regulations (2005) request a timely and all-hazard approach towards surveillance, especially at the subnational level. We discuss three questions of syndromic surveillance application in the European context for assessing public health emergencies of international concern: (i) can syndromic surveillance support countries, especially the subnational level, to meet the International Health Regulations (2005) core surveillance capacity requirements, (ii) are European syndromic surveillance systems comparable to enable cross-border surveillance, and (iii) at which administrative level should syndromic surveillance best be applied?

Discussion

Despite the ongoing criticism on the usefulness of syndromic surveillance which is related to its clinically nonspecific output, we demonstrate that it was a suitable supplement for timely assessment of the impact of three different public health emergencies affecting Europe. Subnational syndromic surveillance analysis in some cases proved to be of advantage for detecting an event earlier compared to national level analysis. However, in many cases, syndromic surveillance did not detect local events with only a small number of cases.

The European Commission envisions comparability of surveillance output to enable cross-border surveillance. Evaluated against European infectious disease case definitions, syndromic surveillance can contribute to identify cases that might fulfil the clinical case definition but the approach is too unspecific to comply to complete clinical definitions. Syndromic surveillance results still seem feasible for comparable cross-border surveillance as similarly defined syndromes are analysed.

We suggest a new model of implementing syndromic surveillance at the subnational level. In this model, syndromic surveillance systems are fine-tuned to their local context and integrated into the existing subnational surveillance and reporting structure. By enhancing population coverage, events covering several jurisdictions can be identified at higher levels. However, the setup of decentralised and locally adjusted syndromic surveillance systems is more complex compared to the setup of one national or local system.

Summary

We conclude that syndromic surveillance if implemented with large population coverage at the subnational level can help detect and assess the local and regional effect of different types of public health emergencies in a timely manner as required by the International Health Regulations (2005).

Potential of the test-negative design for measuring influenza vaccine effectiveness: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The test-negative design is a variant of the case-control study being increasingly used to study influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). In these studies, patients with influenza-like illness are tested for influenza. Vaccine coverage is compared between those testing positive versus those testing negative to estimate VE.

OBJECTIVES

We reviewed features in the design, analysis and reporting of 85 published test-negative studies.

DATA SOURCES

Studies were identified from PubMed, reference lists and email updates. Study eligibility: All studies using the test-negative design reporting end-of-season estimates were included.

STUDY APPRAISAL

Design features that may affect the validity and comparability of reported estimates were reviewed, including setting, study period, source population, case definition, exposure and outcome ascertainment and statistical model.

RESULTS

There was considerable variation in the analytic approach, with 68 unique statistical models identified among the studies.

CONCLUSION

Harmonization of analytic approaches may improve the potential for pooling VE estimates.

Estimates of 2012/13 influenza vaccine effectiveness using the case test-negative control design with different influenza negative control groups

BACKGROUND

In recent years several reports of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) have been made early for public health decision. The majority of these studies use the case test-negative control design (TND), which has been showed to provide, under certain conditions, unbiased estimates of influenza VE. Nevertheless, discussions have been taken on the best influenza negative control group to use. The present study aims to contribute to the knowledge on this field by comparing influenza VE estimates using three test-negative controls: all influenza negative, non-influenza respiratory virus and pan-negative.

METHODS

Incident ILI patients were prospectively selected and swabbed by a sample of general practitioners. Cases were ILI patients tested positive for influenza and controls ILI patients tested negative for influenza. The influenza negative control group was divided into non-influenza virus control group and pan-negative control group. Data were collected on vaccination status and confounding factors. Influenza VE was estimated as one minus the odds ratio of been vaccinated in cases versus controls adjusted for confounding effect by logistic regression.

RESULTS

Confounder adjusted influenza VE against medically attended laboratory-confirmed influenza was 68.4% (95% CI: 20.7-87.4%) using all influenza negatives controls, 82.1% (95% CI: 47.6-93.9%) using non-influenza controls and 49.4% (95% CI: -44.7% to 82.3%) using pan-negative controls.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza VE estimates differed according to the influenza negative control group used. These results are in accordance with the expected under the hypothesis of differential viral interference between influenza vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. Given the wide importance of TND study further studies should be conducted in order to clarify the observed differences.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates in Europe in a season with three influenza type/subtypes circulating: the I-MOVE multicentre case-control study, influenza season 2012/13

In the fifth season of Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe (I-MOVE), we undertook a multicentre case-control study (MCCS) in seven European Union (EU) Member States to measure 2012/13 influenza vaccine effectiveness against medically attended influenza-like illness (ILI) laboratory confirmed as influenza. The season was characterised by substantial co-circulation of influenza B, A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) viruses. Practitioners systematically selected ILI patients to swab ≤7 days of symptom onset. We compared influenza-positive by type/subtype to influenza-negative patients among those who met the EU ILI case definition. We conducted a complete case analysis using logistic regression with study as fixed effect and calculated adjusted vaccine effectiveness (AVE), controlling for potential confounders (age, sex, symptom onset week and presence of chronic conditions). We calculated AVE by type/subtype. Study sites sent 7,954 ILI/acute respiratory infection records for analysis. After applying exclusion criteria, we included 4,627 ILI patients in the analysis of VE against influenza B (1,937 cases), 3,516 for A(H1N1)pdm09 (1,068 cases) and 3,340 for influenza A(H3N2) (730 cases). AVE was 49.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 32.4 to 62.0) against influenza B, 50.4% (95% CI: 28.4 to 65.6) against A(H1N1)pdm09 and 42.2% (95% CI: 14.9 to 60.7) against A(H3N2). Our results suggest an overall low to moderate AVE against influenza B, A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2), between 42 and 50%. In this season with many co-circulating viruses, the high sample size enabled stratified AVE by type/subtype. The low estimates indicate seasonal influenza vaccines should be improved to achieve acceptable protection levels.

Medical and economic burden of influenza in the elderly population in central and eastern European countries

Influenza affects 5-15% of the population during an epidemic. In Western Europe, vaccination of at-risk groups forms the cornerstone of influenza prevention. However, vaccination coverage of the elderly (> 65 y) is often low in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE); potentially because a paucity of country-specific data limits evidence-based policy making. Therefore the medical and economic burden of influenza were estimated in elderly populations in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Poland, Romania, and Ukraine. Data covering national influenza vaccination policies, surveillance and reporting, healthcare costs, populations, and epidemiology were obtained via literature review, open-access websites and databases, and interviews with experts. A simplified model of patient treatment flow incorporating cost, population, and incidence/prevalence data was used to calculate the influenza burden per country. In the elderly, influenza represented a large burden on the assessed healthcare systems, with yearly excess hospitalization rates of ~30/100,000. Burden varied between countries and was likely influenced by population size, surveillance system, healthcare provision, and vaccine coverage. The greatest burden was found in Poland, where direct costs were over EUR 5 million. Substantial differences in data availability and quality were identified, and to fully quantify the burden of influenza in CEE, influenza reporting systems should be standardized. This study most probably underestimates the real burden of influenza, however the public health problem is recognized worldwide, and will further increase with population aging. Extending influenza vaccination of the elderly may be a cost-effective way to reduce the burden of influenza in CEE.

The test-negative design: validity, accuracy and precision of vaccine efficacy estimates compared to the gold standard of randomised placebo-controlled clinical trials

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2011-12 seasonal influenza vaccines effectiveness against confirmed A(H3N2) influenza hospitalisation: pooled analysis from a European network of hospitals. A pilot study

BACKGROUND

Influenza vaccination strategies aim at protecting high-risk population from severe outcomes. Estimating the effectiveness of seasonal vaccines against influenza related hospitalisation is important to guide these strategies. Large sample size is needed to have precise estimate of influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against severe outcomes. We assessed the feasibility of measuring seasonal IVE against hospitalisation with laboratory confirmed influenza through a network of 21 hospitals in the European Union.

METHODS

We conducted a multicentre study in France (seven hospitals), Italy (one hospital), and Navarra (four hospitals) and Valencia (nine hospitals) regions in Spain. All ≥18 years hospitalised patients presenting an influenza-like illness within seven days were swabbed. Cases were patients RT-PCR positive for influenza A (H3N2); controls were patients negative for any influenza virus. Using logistic regression with study site as a fixed effect we calculated IVE adjusted for potential confounders. We restricted the analyses to those swabbed within four days.

RESULTS

We included, 375 A(H3N2) cases and 770 controls. The overall adjusted IVE was 24.9% (95%CI-1.8;44.6). Among the target group for vaccination (N = 1058) the adjusted IVE was 28.8% (95%CI:2.8;47.9); it was respectively 36.8% (95%CI:-48.8; 73.1), 42.6% (95%CI:-16.5;71.7), 17.8%(95%CI:-40.8; 52.1) and 37.5% (95%CI:-22.8;68.2) in the age groups 18-64, 65-74, 75-84 and more than 84 years.

DISCUSSION

Estimation of IVE based on the pooling of data obtained through a European network of hospitals was feasible. Our results suggest a low IVE against hospitalised confirmed influenza in 2011-12. The low IVE may be explained by a poor immune response in the high-risk population, imperfect match between vaccine and circulating strain or waning immunity due to a late season. Increased sample size within this network would allow more precise estimates and stratification of the IVE by time since vaccination and vaccine types or brands.

Effectiveness of trivalent and monovalent influenza vaccines against laboratory-confirmed influenza infection in persons with medically attended influenza-like illness in Bavaria, Germany, 2010/2011 season

We estimated the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of trivalent and monovalent influenza vaccines,respectively, against laboratory-confirmed influenza infections in patients with influenza-likeillness who visited physicians participating in the Bayern Influenza Sentinel in Bavaria, Germany during 2010/2011. Swab specimens were analysed for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3) andB by PCR. VE was estimated using the test-negative case-control study design and logistic regression. In total, 1866 patients (790 cases, 1076 controls) were included. The VE of trivalentvaccines administered in season 2010/2011 against laboratory-confirmed infection with any influenza virus, adjusted for age group, sex, chronic illness and week of arrival of the specimen,was 67.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 39.2–82.9)]. The adjusted VE of monovalent influenza vaccines administered in season 2009/2010 against laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection in 2010/2011 was 38.6% (95% CI x 70.0 to 77 . 8). This is the first VE study conducted in Bavaria. We concluded that the trivalent influenza vaccines were effective in our study population

Effectiveness of the 2010-2011 seasonal influenza vaccine in preventing confirmed influenza hospitalizations in adults: a case-case comparison, case-control study

Introduction

We estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) to prevent laboratory-confirmed influenza-related hospitalizations in patients 18 years old or older during the 2010–2011 influenza season.

Methods

We conducted a prospective case-control study in five hospitals, in Valencia, Spain. Study subjects were consecutive emergency hospitalizations for predefined conditions associated with an influenza-like illness episode <8 days before admission. Patients were considered immunized if vaccinated ≥14 days before influenza-like illness onset. Cases were those with a real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) positive for influenza and controls were RT-PCR positive for other respiratory viruses. Adjusted IVE was estimated as 100 × (1 − adjusted odds ratio). To account for indication bias we computed adjusted IVE for respiratory syncytial virus related hospitalizations.

Results

Of 826 eligible hospitalized patients, 102 (12%) were influenza positive and considered cases, and 116 (14%) were positive for other respiratory viruses and considered controls. Adjusted IVE was 54% (95% confidence interval, 11–76%). By subgroup, adjusted IVE was 53% (4–77%) for those with high-risk conditions, 59% (16–79%) for those ≥60 years of age, and, 54% (4–79%) for those ≥60 years of age with high-risk conditions. No influenza vaccine effect was observed against respiratory syncytial virus related hospitalization.

Conclusion

Influenza vaccination was associated with a significant reduction on the risk of confirmed influenza hospitalization, irrespective of age and high-risk conditions.

Efficacy and effectiveness of influenza vaccines: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

No published meta-analyses have assessed efficacy and effectiveness of licensed influenza vaccines in the USA with sensitive and highly specific diagnostic tests to confirm influenza.

METHODS

We searched Medline for randomised controlled trials assessing a relative reduction in influenza risk of all circulating influenza viruses during individual seasons after vaccination (efficacy) and observational studies meeting inclusion criteria (effectiveness). Eligible articles were published between Jan 1, 1967, and Feb 15, 2011, and used RT-PCR or culture for confirmation of influenza. We excluded some studies on the basis of study design and vaccine characteristics. We estimated random-effects pooled efficacy for trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) and live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) when data were available for statistical analysis (eg, at least three studies that assessed comparable age groups).

FINDINGS

We screened 5707 articles and identified 31 eligible studies (17 randomised controlled trials and 14 observational studies). Efficacy of TIV was shown in eight (67%) of the 12 seasons analysed in ten randomised controlled trials (pooled efficacy 59% [95% CI 51-67] in adults aged 18-65 years). No such trials met inclusion criteria for children aged 2-17 years or adults aged 65 years or older. Efficacy of LAIV was shown in nine (75%) of the 12 seasons analysed in ten randomised controlled trials (pooled efficacy 83% [69-91]) in children aged 6 months to 7 years. No such trials met inclusion criteria for children aged 8-17 years. Vaccine effectiveness was variable for seasonal influenza: six (35%) of 17 analyses in nine studies showed significant protection against medically attended influenza in the outpatient or inpatient setting. Median monovalent pandemic H1N1 vaccine effectiveness in five observational studies was 69% (range 60-93).

INTERPRETATION

Influenza vaccines can provide moderate protection against virologically confirmed influenza, but such protection is greatly reduced or absent in some seasons. Evidence for protection in adults aged 65 years or older is lacking. LAIVs consistently show highest efficacy in young children (aged 6 months to 7 years). New vaccines with improved clinical efficacy and effectiveness are needed to further reduce influenza-related morbidity and mortality.

FUNDING

Alfred P Sloan Foundation.

Sero-prevalence and incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in Scotland in winter 2009-2010

Background

Sero-prevalence is a valuable indicator of prevalence and incidence of A/H1N1 2009 infection. However, raw sero-prevalence data must be corrected for background levels of cross-reactivity (i.e. imperfect test specificity) and the effects of immunisation programmes.

Methods and Findings

We obtained serum samples from a representative sample of 1563 adults resident in Scotland between late October 2009 and April 2010. Based on a microneutralisation assay, we estimate that 44% (95% confidence intervals (CIs): 40–47%) of the adult population of Scotland were sero-positive for A/H1N1 2009 influenza by 1 March 2010. Correcting for background cross-reactivity and for recorded vaccination rates by time and age group, we estimated that 34% (27–42%) were naturally infected with A/H1N1 2009 by 1 March 2010. The central estimate increases to >40% if we allow for imperfect test sensitivity. Over half of these infections are estimated to have occurred during the study period and the incidence of infection in late October 2009 was estimated at 4.3 new infections per 1000 people per day (1.2 to 7.2), falling close to zero by April 2010. The central estimate increases to over 5.0 per 1000 if we allow for imperfect test specificity. The rate of infection was higher for younger adults than older adults. Raw sero-prevalences were significantly higher in more deprived areas (likelihood ratio trend statistic = 4.92,1 df, P = 0.03) but there was no evidence of any difference in vaccination rates.

Conclusions

We estimate that almost half the adult population of Scotland were sero-positive for A/H1N1 2009 influenza by early 2010 and that the majority of these individuals (except in the oldest age classes) sero-converted as a result of natural infection with A/H1N1 2009. Public health planning should consider the possibility of higher rates of infection with A/H1N1 2009 influenza in more deprived areas.

Influenza pandemic (H1N1) 2009 activity during summer 2009. Effectiveness of the 2008-9 trivalent vaccine against pandemic influenza in Spain

INTRODUCTION

The Spanish influenza surveillance system (SISS) maintained its activity during the summer of 2009 to monitor the influenza pandemic.

OBJECTIVES

To describe pandemic influenza activity from May to September 2009 and to estimate the effectiveness of the 2008-9 seasonal influenza vaccine against laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza.

METHODS

Data from the SISS were used to identify the trend of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza outside the influenza season. For the effectiveness study, we compared the vaccination status of notified cases [influenza-like illnesses (ILI) laboratory confirmed as pandemic influenza] with that of the test-negative controls.

RESULTS

The first laboratory-confirmed case of the pandemic virus was notified in the system in week 20/2009. The ILI rate increased gradually in the study period, exceeding basic activity in week 38. The proportion of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza viruses detected by the system represented 14% in week 20/2009 and rapidly increased to 90% in week 34. The adjusted vaccine effectiveness of the 2008-9 seasonal vaccine against laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza was 12% (-30; 41).

CONCLUSIONS

The SISS became an essential tool for pandemic monitoring in Spain. The improved SISS will provide more accurate information on influenza activity in future seasonal or pandemic waves. Using surveillance data, we could not demonstrate the effectiveness of the seasonal 2008-9 vaccine against laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza.

Effectiveness of seasonal vaccine in preventing confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations in community dwelling older adults

BACKGROUND

Current evidence supporting the effectiveness of influenza vaccine in preventing hospitalizations in older adults is insufficient.

METHODS

During 3 influenza seasons, 2006-2009, community-dwelling adults aged ≥50 y hospitalized with respiratory symptoms were prospectively enrolled in this study. We tested nose and throat samples for influenza virus by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction. We estimated vaccine effectiveness by comparing vaccination status between influenza-positive cases and influenza-negative controls using logistic regression models with propensity score adjustment.

RESULTS

Overall, 450 (59%) of 763 eligible patients were enrolled; 417 (93%) of enrolled patients had adequate respiratory samples, had known influenza vaccination status, and were community-dwelling. The proportions of influenza-positive patients were 8%, 20%, and 6% in the 3 successive seasons. Of 39 influenza-positive participants, 14 (36%) were vaccinated compared with 250 (66%) of 378 influenza-negative controls. Propensity score-adjusted vaccine effectiveness for the 3 seasons combined was 61.2% (95% confidence interval, 17.5%-81.8%).

CONCLUSION

Overall, in this moderately well-vaccinated population of older adults, laboratory-confirmed influenza virus accounted for 9.3% (95% confidence interval, 6.6%-12.1%) of all respiratory hospitalizations during 3 influenza seasons, and influenza vaccination prevented 61.2% of such hospitalizations.

Estimates of pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness in Europe, 2009-2010: results of Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe (I-MOVE) multicentre case-control study

BACKGROUND

A multicentre case-control study based on sentinel practitioner surveillance networks from seven European countries was undertaken to estimate the effectiveness of 2009-2010 pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccines against medically attended influenza-like illness (ILI) laboratory-confirmed as pandemic influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Sentinel practitioners swabbed ILI patients using systematic sampling. We included in the study patients meeting the European ILI case definition with onset of symptoms >14 days after the start of national pandemic vaccination campaigns. We compared pH1N1 cases to influenza laboratory-negative controls. A valid vaccination corresponded to >14 days between receiving a dose of vaccine and symptom onset. We estimated pooled vaccine effectiveness (VE) as 1 minus the odds ratio with the study site as a fixed effect. Using logistic regression, we adjusted VE for potential confounding factors (age group, sex, month of onset, chronic diseases and related hospitalizations, smoking history, seasonal influenza vaccinations, practitioner visits in previous year). We conducted a complete case analysis excluding individuals with missing values and a multiple multivariate imputation to estimate missing values. The multivariate imputation (n = 2902) adjusted pandemic VE (PIVE) estimates were 71.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 45.6-85.5) overall; 78.4% (95% CI 54.4-89.8) in patients <65 years; and 72.9% (95% CI 39.8-87.8) in individuals without chronic disease. The complete case (n = 1,502) adjusted PIVE were 66.0% (95% CI 23.9-84.8), 71.3% (95% CI 29.1-88.4), and 70.2% (95% CI 19.4-89.0), respectively. The adjusted PIVE was 66.0% (95% CI -69.9 to 93.2) if vaccinated 8-14 days before ILI onset. The adjusted 2009-2010 seasonal influenza VE was 9.9% (95% CI -65.2 to 50.9).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest good protection of the pandemic monovalent vaccine against medically attended pH1N1 and no effect of the 2009-2010 seasonal influenza vaccine. However, the late availability of the pandemic vaccine and subsequent limited coverage with this vaccine hampered our ability to study vaccine benefits during the outbreak period. Future studies should include estimation of the effectiveness of the new trivalent vaccine in the upcoming 2010-2011 season, when vaccination will occur before the influenza season starts.

Evaluation of inter-pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness during eight consecutive winter seasons in England and Wales in patients with cardiovascular risk factors

We evaluated the effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccine in persons aged ≥45 years with co-morbidities (including essential hypertension) likely to have prompted consideration of prophylactic statin therapy. Using case-control analyses, we measured the impact of vaccination on General Practitioner (GP) reported new episodes of illness for clinically diagnosed influenza-like illness (ILI) and total acute respiratory infection (TARI) during eight consecutive winters, adjusting for potential confounders using multivariable techniques. Although the study failed to demonstrate the effectiveness of influenza vaccine, we identified important potential confounding related to a greater likelihood of vaccinees than non-vaccinees to consult with a GP for respiratory infections. Future researchers should consider and account for this phenomenon.

Factors associated with pneumococcal and influenza vaccination in hospitalized people aged ≥65 years

Socioeconomic factors and the patterns of use of health services associated with influenza and pneumococcal vaccination were studied in people aged ⩾65 years admitted to three general hospitals in Spain between 2005 and 2007. The following data were collected: age, sex, risk of pneumonia, educational level, social class, type of household, physician visits, length of time with the same general practitioner, and influenza and pneumococcal vaccination (23vPPV). Associations between variables were assessed using multivariate logistic regression analysis. In total, 1702 patients were included; 59·9% had received 23vPPV and 65·6% influenza vaccine. Older age (OR 1·04, P<0·001), living with a partner (OR 1·72, P=0·003) and influenza vaccination during the last year (OR 6·64, P<0·001) were associated with 23vPPV. Male sex (OR 1·44, P=0·005), older age (OR 1·02, P=0·009), moderate risk of pneumonia (OR 1·58, P=0·001), living with a partner (OR 1·52, P=0·015) and frequent physician visits during the last year (1-6 annuals visits (OR 2·65, P<0·001); >6 visits (OR 3·83, P<0·001)) were associated with influenza vaccination. Coordination between public health and primary-care services may be necessary to improve vaccine uptake.

Experience and lessons from surveillance and studies of the 2009 pandemic in Europe

Surveillance and studies in a pandemic is a complex topic including four distinct components: (1) early detection and investigation; (2) comprehensive early assessment; (3) monitoring; and (4) rapid investigation of the effectiveness and impact of countermeasures, including monitoring the safety of pharmaceutical countermeasures. In the 2009 pandemic, the prime early detection and investigation took place in the Americas, but Europe needed to undertake the other three components while remaining vigilant to new phenomenon such as the emergence of antiviral resistance and important viral mutation. Laboratory-based surveillance was essential and also integral to epidemiological and clinical surveillance. Early assessment was especially vital because of the many important strategic parameters of the pandemic that could not be anticipated (the 'known unknowns'). Such assessment did not need to be undertaken in every country, and was done by the earliest affected European countries, particularly those with stronger surveillance. This was more successful than requiring countries to forward primary data for central analysis. However, it sometimes proved difficult to get even those analyses from European counties, and information from Southern hemisphere countries and North America proved equally valuable. These analyses informed which public health and clinical measures were most likely to be successful, and were summarized in a European risk assessment that was updated repeatedly. The estimate of the severity of the pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), and more detailed description by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control in the risk assessment along with revised planning assumptions were essential, as most national European plans envisaged triggering more disruptive interventions in the event of a severe pandemic. Setting up new surveillance systems in the midst of the pandemic and getting information from them was generally less successful. All European countries needed to perform monitoring (Component 3) for the proper management of their own healthcare systems and other services. The information that central authorities might like to have for monitoring was legion, and some countries found it difficult to limit this to what was essential for decisions and key communications. Monitoring should have been tested for feasibility in influenza seasons, but also needed to consider what surveillance systems will change or cease to deliver during a pandemic. International monitoring (reporting upwards to WHO and European authorities) had to be kept simple as many countries found it difficult to provide routine information to international bodies as well as undertaking internal processes. Investigation of the effectiveness of countermeasures (and the safety of pharmaceutical countermeasures) (Component 4) is another process that only needs to be undertaken in some countries. Safety monitoring proved especially important because of concerns over the safety of vaccines and antivirals. It is unlikely that it will become clear whether and which public health measures have been successful during the pandemic itself. Piloting of methods of estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness (part of Component 4) in Europe was underway in 2008. It was concluded that for future pandemics, authorities should plan how they will undertake Components 2-4, resourcing them realistically and devising new ways of sharing analyses.

Estimating the influenza vaccine effectiveness in elderly on a yearly basis using the Spanish influenza surveillance network--pilot case-control studies using different control groups, 2008-2009 season, Spain

We conducted a case-control and screening method studies to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) in the age group >or=65 years, based on the Spanish Influenza Sentinel Surveillance System (SISSS). Cases (influenza laboratory-confirmed) were compared to influenza-negative ILI patients (test-negative) and patients without ILI since the beginning of the season (non-ILI). For the screening method, cases' vaccination coverage was compared to the vaccination coverage of the GPs' catchment population. The results suggested a protective effect of the vaccine against laboratory-confirmed influenza in elderly in 2008-2009. The screening method and the test-negative control designs enable estimating IVE using exclusively SISSS data.