Scientific Opinion on peste des petits ruminants

Environmental sampling for the detection of capripox viruses and peste des petits ruminants virus in households and livestock markets in Plateau State, Nigeria

Multiple transboundary animal diseases (TADs) circulate in Plateau State, Nigeria, where livestock keeping is common and contributes to both the physical and socio-economic well-being of a large proportion of the population. In this study, we explored the potential for environmental sampling to detect viruses causing TADs circulating in the region. Electrostatic dust cloths were used to swab areas of the environment likely to have contact with secretions and excretions from infected animals. Samples were collected monthly from five households, one transhumance site and one livestock market in two local government areas in Plateau State between March and October 2021. These were tested for the presence of peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) and capripox viruses using real-time PCR. Of the 458 samples collected, 2.4% (n = 11) were positive for PPRV RNA and 1.3 % (n = 6) were positive for capripox virus DNA. A capripox differentiation assay showed that these samples were positive for sheep pox virus (n = 2), goat pox virus (n = 2) and lumpy skin disease virus (n = 2). Our results demonstrate that environmental sampling could be used as part of TAD surveillance in the area. Environmental swabs require little technical knowledge to collect and can be used to detect multiple viruses from a single sample.

Space-time cluster analysis and maximum entropy modeling of Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) in Türkiye

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an economically important highly serious transboundary disease that mainly occurs in small ruminants such as sheep and goats. The aim of this study was to identify the probability of risk and and space-time clusters of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) in Türkiye. The occurrence of PPR in Türkiye from 2017 to 2019 was investigated in this study using spatial analysis based on geographic information system (GIS). Between these dates, it was determined that 337 outbreaks and 18,467 cases. The highest number of outbreaks were detected in the Central Anatolia region. It was determined that PPR is seen more intensely in sheep compared to goats in Türkiye. In this study, 34 environmental variables (19 bioclimatic, 12 precipitation, altitude and small livestock density variables) were used to explore the environmental influences on PPR outbreak by maximum entropy modeling (Maxent). The clusters of PPR in Türkiye were identified using the retrospective space-time scan data that were computed using the space-time permutation model. A PPR prediction model was created using data on PPR outbreaks combination with environmental variables. Nineteen significant (p < 0.001) space-time clusters were determined. It was discovered that the variables altitude, sheep density, precipitation in june, and average temperature in the warmest season made important contributions to the model and the PPR outbreak may be strongly related with these variables. In this study, PPR in Türkiye has been characterized significantly spatio-temporal and enviromental factors. In this context, the disease pattern and obtained these findings will contribute to policymakers in the prevention and control of the disease.

Post-Vaccination Sero-Monitoring of Peste des Petits Ruminants in Sheep and Goats in Karnataka: Progress towards PPR Eradication in India

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) presents economic challenges in enzootic countries impacting small ruminant productivity. The state of Karnataka, India, implemented a mass vaccination campaign in alignment with the PPR-Global Eradication Programme (GEP) and the National Strategic Plan for PPR eradication. This study was conducted from January to March 2023 to assess seroconversion in post-vaccinated goats and sheep at the epidemiological unit (epi-unit) level, aligning with the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) guidelines in the PPR Global Control and Eradication Strategy (GCES). Before vaccination, 3466 random serum samples were collected from small ruminants of three age groups (6-12 months, 1-2 years, and >2 years) across 116 epi-units, spanning 82 taluks in 28 districts. Post-vaccination sero-monitoring included 1102 serum samples collected from small ruminants of the 6-12-month age group only, across 111 epi-units covering 64 taluks in 23 districts. The PPRV antibody status was determined using an indigenous hemagglutinin (H) protein monoclonal antibody-based competitive ELISA kit. Pre-vaccination, the PPR seropositivity rates were 55%, 62%, and 66% in the age groups of 6-12 months, 1-2 years, and >2 years, respectively, with a 61% PPRV antibody prevalence across all the age groups. Notably, 41% of the epi-units exhibited antibody prevalence rates of ≥70%, indicating a substantial population immunity, possibly attributed to the previous vaccination program in the state since 2011. In contrast, only 17% of the epi-units had below 30% seroprevalence rates, emphasizing the need for intensified vaccination. Statistical analysis of the data revealed significant correlations (p < 0.05) between the presence of PPRV antibodies and host factors such as species, breed, and sex. Post-vaccination seroprevalence in the 6-12 months age group was found to be 73.4%, indicating the use of an efficacious vaccine. On the evaluation of vaccination immunity in the 6-12 months age group, it was revealed that over 69% of the epi-units achieved a response surpassing ≥70%, indicating a significant improvement from 42% of the epi-units in pre-vaccination. For active PPR eradication, a mass vaccination campaign (>95% coverage) targeting small ruminant populations aged >4 months is advocated, aiming to achieve the desired herd immunity of >80%. This study offers crucial insights into PPR baseline seroprevalence/immunity status and vaccine efficacy, guiding national strategies towards a PPR-free India and further supporting the global eradication initiative.

The Live Attenuated Vaccine Strain "ARRIAH" Completely Protects Goats from a Virulent Lineage IV Field Strain of Peste Des Petits Ruminants Virus

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a transboundary viral disease that affects small ruminants, such as goats and sheep, in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, causing substantial damage to livelihoods and disrupting livestock trade. Although Russia is PPR virus (PPRV)-free, controlling PPRV in neighboring countries is the top national priority. Recent PPR outbreaks in Mongolia and other countries in the Middle East caused by a lineage IV virus represent a risk of transboundary emergence in neighboring countries, including China, Kazakhstan, and Russia. In the present study, we assessed the potency and safety of the ARRIAH live attenuated PPRV vaccine (lineage II) in Zaannen and Nubian goat breeds by challenging them with a virulent lineage IV Mongolia/2021 isolate. For comparison, two commercial vaccines of Nigeria75/1 strain were used. The ARRIAH-vaccinated animals showed an increase in body temperature of 1-1.5 °C above the physiological norm, similar to the animals vaccinated with Nigeria75/1 vaccines. In all vaccinated groups, the average rectal temperature never exceeded 39.4-39.7 °C throughout the infection period, and no clinical signs of the disease were observed, demonstrating vaccine efficacy and safety in the current experimental setting. However, the control group (mock vaccinated) challenged with Mongolia/2021 PPRV exhibited moderate-to-severe clinical signs. Overall, the findings of the present study demonstrate that the ARRIAH vaccine strain has a promising protective phenotype compared with Nigeria75/1 vaccines, suggesting its potential as an effective alternative for curbing and controlling PPR in affected countries. Although the ARRIAH vaccine against PPR is not currently endorsed by the World Organization for Animal Health due to its incomplete safety and potency profile, this study is the first step to provide experimentally validated data on the ARRIAH vaccine.

An Integrated Ecological Niche Modelling Framework for Risk Mapping of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus Exposure in African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in the Greater Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious viral disease of small ruminants that threatens livelihoods and food security in developing countries and, in some cases, wild ungulate species conservation. The Greater Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem (GSME) encompasses one of the major wildlife populations of PPR virus (PPRV)-susceptible species left on earth, although no clinical disease has been reported so far. This study aimed to gain further knowledge about PPRV circulation in the GSME by identifying which factors predict PPRV seropositivity in African buffalo (Syncerus caffer). Following an ecological niche modeling framework to map host-pathogen distribution, two models of PPRV exposure and buffalo habitat suitability were performed using serological data and buffalo censuses. Western Maasai Mara National Reserve and Western Serengeti National Park were identified as high-risk areas for PPRV exposure in buffalo. Variables related to wildlife-livestock interaction contributed to the higher risk of PPRV seropositivity in buffalo, providing supportive evidence that buffalo acquire the virus through contact with infected livestock. These findings can guide the design of cost-effective PPRV surveillance using buffalo as a sentinel species at the identified high-risk locations. As more intensive studies have been carried out in Eastern GSME, this study highlights the need for investigating PPRV dynamics in Western GSME.

Seroprevalence and risk factors of Peste des petits ruminants in different production systems in Uganda

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious and fatal disease of mostly domestic goats and sheep. First reported in Uganda in 2007, the extent of peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) exposure, geographical distribution and risk factors of its transmission and spread are not clearly understood. In this study, we used cluster random sampling methodology to select study villages from three districts representing three different production systems along Uganda's "cattle corridor". Between October and December 2022, 2520 goat and sheep serum samples were collected from 252 households with no history of PPR vaccination in the past one year. The household heads were interviewed to assess possible risk factors of PPRV transmission using a structured questionnaire. The serum samples were screened with a commercial competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA) for PPRV antibodies. The determined overall true seroprevalence of PPRV was 27.3% [95% CI: 25.4-29.1]. The seroprevalence of PPRV antibodies in different production systems was 44.1% [95% CI: 40.6-47.7], 31.7% [95% CI: 28.4-35.0] and 6.1% [95% CI: 4.4-7.9] for pastoral, agropastoral and mixed crop-livestock production systems respectively. A mixed-effects multivariable logistic regression model revealed strong statistical evidence of association between female animals and PPRV antibody seropositivity compared to males [OR= 2.45, 95% CI: 1.7-3.5, p < 0.001]. The likelihood of being PPRV antibody seropositive significantly increased with increasing small ruminant age. Animals older than 3 years were more than three times as likely to be PPRV seropositive compared to animals aged under 1 year [OR= 3.41, 95% CI: 2.39-4.85, p < 0.001]. There was no statistical evidence of association between small ruminant species and PPRV antibody seropositivity (p = 0.423). Village flocks that interacted with neighboring flocks daily during grazing (IRR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.19-2.13) and watering around swamps (IRR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.19-2.13) were highly correlated with increased number of PPRV seropositive animals as compared to flocks that were more restricted in grazing and watered around other water sources other than swamps. Flocks from pastoral and agropastoral production systems were more than 10 times more likely to have seropositive animals than mixed crop-livestock flocks. Targeting PPR control interventions (vaccination and livestock movement control) to pastoral and agro-pastoral small ruminant production systems that are very prone to PPR incursions is recommended to prevent PPRV spread to low-risk smallholder mixed crop-livestock production systems.

Investigation of Potency and Safety of Live-Attenuated Peste des Petits Ruminant Virus Vaccine in Goats by Detection of Cellular and Humoral Immune Response

The peste des petits ruminant (PPR) virus is a transboundary virus found in small domestic ruminants that causes high morbidity and mortality in naive herds. PPR can be effectively controlled and eradicated by vaccinating small domestic ruminants with a live-attenuated peste des petits ruminant virus (PPRV) vaccine, which provides long-lasting immunity. We studied the potency and safety of a live-attenuated vaccine in goats by detecting their cellular and humoral immune responses. Six goats were subcutaneously vaccinated with a live-attenuated PPRV vaccine according to the manufacturer's instructions, and two goats were kept in contact. Following vaccination, the goats were monitored daily, and we recorded their body temperature and clinical score. Heparinized blood and serum were collected for a serological analysis, and swab samples and EDTA blood were collected to detect the PPRV genome. The safety of the used PPRV vaccine was confirmed by the absence of PPR-related clinical signs, a negative pen-side test, a low virus genome load as detected with RT-qPCR on the vaccinated goats, and the lack horizontal transmission between the in-contact goats. The strong humoral and cellular immune responses detected in the vaccinated goats showed that the live-attenuated PPRV vaccine has a strong potency in goats. Therefore, live-attenuated vaccines against PPR can be used to control and eradicate PRR.

Comparative pathogenesis of peste des petits ruminants virus strains of difference virulence

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an acute disease of small ruminants caused by a morbillivirus. Clinical observation of the disease in the field revealed that several species of small ruminants are affected to varying degrees. This difference in disease-related effects could depend either on the host or on the virulence of the virus strain. A previous study highlighted the difference in virulence between two strains of PPRV used to infect Saanen goats. For this breed, PPRV Morocco 2008 strain (MA08) was highly virulent while PPRV Côte d’Ivoire 1989 (IC89) strain induced mild disease. Experimental studies generally based on healthy and young animals do not permit exploration of the natural variability of the host susceptibility to PPRV. Therefore, building on the previous study on Saanen goats, the current study focussed on this breed of goat and used commercially available animals with an unknown history of infection with other pathogens. Results confirmed the previous disease pattern for PPRV IC89 and MA08 strains. Viral RNA detection, macroscopic and histological lesions were stronger for the highly virulent MA08 strain. We show here for the first time that viral RNA can be detected in the tissues of vaccinated animals. Viral RNA was also detected for the first time in serum samples, which is in agreement with the role of circulating immune cells in transporting the virus into host target organs. Thus, this study provides insight into the pathogenesis of strains of different virulence of PPRV and will help to better understand the onset of the disease.

Analysis of peste des petits ruminants virus spread and the risk of its introduction into the territory of the Russian Federation

Aim:

This study examines methods to effectively control peste des petits ruminants (PPR), an emerging, highly contagious, transboundary disease that has been designated as a highly dangerous disease by the World Organization for Animal Health. Mathematical modeling was used as a predictive and preventive tool to assess the risk of PPR virus spread in the model area and the probability of its introduction into the territory of the Russian Federation.

Materials and Methods:

PPR risk assessment was performed by modeling the pathogen’s ecological niche by performing linear regression analysis in the geographic information system ESRI ArcGIS Desktop and maximum entropy methods using MaxEnt software. The territories of Bangladesh, China, and Algeria were used as model countries because they have the highest number of confirmed PPR outbreaks, as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations from 2009 to 2020. The prepared global model of the PPR pathogen’s ecological niche was extrapolated onto the territory of the Far Eastern regions of the Russian Federation to assess the probability of virus introduction in that region.

Results:

Global model analysis showed that two factors exerted the highest influence on the spread of the PPR pathogen on a global scale: The minimum temperature of the coldest month of the year and the density of roads per unit area, which reflect the overall economic activity within a region. The highest risk of PPR spread was observed in areas with a minimum annual temperature of 16°C and road density of 5000 m/k^m2.

Conclusion:

According to the model, areas with a dominant subtropical climate, where small livestock breeding is performed and where the average daily air temperature is >0°C throughout the year, are at the highest risk of PPR outbreaks. The risk of PPR spreading outside these areas is significantly reduced. Local extrapolation of the PPR ecological niche model demonstrates that the probability of epizootic development does not exceed 3–4% within the territories of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation adjacent to Mongolia and China.

Pheno- and genotypic characterization and identification of novel subtypes of Peste des Petits Ruminants virus in domestic and captive wild goats in Northern Iraq

BACKGROUND

Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is an acute or peracute contagious transboundary viral disease that mainly affects caprine and ovine and causes significant economic impact in developing countries. After two PPR virus outbreaks in 2011 and 2014, an investigation, from August 2015 to September 2016, was carried out in Northern Iraq when an increased morbidity and mortality rates were reported in the domestic and captive wild goats. In the present study, ten domestic goat farms and seven captive wild goat herds located in seven geographical areas of Northern Iraq were clinically, pathologically, serologically and genotypically characterized to determine the prevalence and potential cause of PPR virus outbreak.

RESULTS

The outbreak occurred with rate of morbidity (26.1%) and mortality (11.1%) in domestic goat farms as compared to captive wild goat herds where relatively high mortality (42.9%) and low morbidity (10.9%) rates were recorded. Based on the clinical symptoms (mucopurulent nasal discharges, ulceration and erosion of oral mucosa, profuse watery diarrhea) and necropsy (hemorrhage and congestion on mucous membranes of the colon and rectum with zebra stripes lesions) results, overall, the serological test findings revealed a high frequency (47.9%) of positive samples for anti-PPRV nucleoprotein antibodies. Furthermore, the nucleoprotein (N) gene was detected in 63.2 and 89.1% of samples using conventional and reverse transcription real-time quantitative PCR assays. A phylogenetic analysis of N gene amino acid sequences clustered with the reference strain revealed lineage IV similar to the strains isolated in 2011 and 2014, respectively. However, two sub-types of lineage IV (I and II), significantly distinct from the previous strains, were also observed.

CONCLUSION

The phylogenetic analysis suggests that movements of goats are possible cause and one of the important factors responsible for the spread of virus across the region. The study results would help in improving farm management practices by establishing a PPR virus eradication program using regular monitoring and vaccination program to control and mitigate the risk of re-emergence of PPR virus infection in domestic and captive wild goats in Iraq.

Impact of Peste des petits ruminants for sub-Saharan African farmers: A bioeconomic household production model

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), a contagious viral disease affecting small ruminants, has been targeted by the global community for eradication within the next 10 years. However, eradication will require substantial money, human resources, coordination among actors, and individual commitments. The objective was to estimate the cost of PPR at a household level, thereby providing information on the potential economic benefits of PPR eradication and the incentives for small ruminant keepers to actively participate in the PPR Global Eradication Programme. This study focused on four sub-Saharan countries: Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali and Rwanda. Publicly available household level data assembled by FAO were used. A bioeconomic model was built to estimate impacts of PPR for a standardized theoretical area, where each household raised an average small ruminant herd or flock. Model outputs were used to estimate, at a household level, income loss due to a PPR outbreak. We constructed various income scenarios to account for the variability of small ruminant income as a proportion of total household annual income. Household income losses ranged from 2% to 40% of total annual income; percentages varied depending on the income scenario and on the gross annual economic impact of PPR on small ruminant production, which ranged from 20% to 80%, based on results of the bioeconomic model. As expected, the more small ruminant production contributed to household income the greater the impact. Estimates provided herein warn decision makers that, given the heterogeneous impact of PPR on household income, the willingness of small ruminant decision makers to participate in the PPR Global Eradication Programme may vary widely and tailored approaches should be devised and implemented.

Mapping the risks of the spread of peste des petits ruminants in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a viral transboundary disease seen in small ruminants, that causes significant damage to agriculture. This disease has not been previously registered in the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK). This paper presents an assessment of the susceptibility of the RK's territory to the spread of the disease in the event of its importation from infected countries. The negative binomial regression model that was trained on the PPR outbreaks in China, was used to rank municipal districts in the RK in terms of PPR spread risk. The outbreak count per administrative district was used as a risk indicator, while a number of socio-economic, landscape, and climatic factors were considered as explanatory variables. Summary road length, altitude, the density of small ruminants, the maximum green vegetation fraction, cattle density, and the Engel coefficient were the most significant factors. The model demonstrated a good performance in training data (R²  = 0.69), and was transferred to the RK, suggesting a significantly lower susceptibility of this country to the spread of PPR. Hot spot analysis identified three clusters of districts at the highest risk, located in the western, eastern, and southern parts of Kazakhstan. As part of the study, a countrywide survey was conducted to collect data on the distribution of livestock populations, which resulted in the compilation of a complete geo-database of small ruminant holdings in the RK. The research results may be used to formulate a national strategy for preventing the importation and spread of PPR in Kazakhstan through targeted monitoring in high-risk areas.

Assessment of the control measures of the category A diseases of Animal Health Law: peste des petits ruminants

EFSA received a mandate from the European Commission to assess the effectiveness of some of the control measures against diseases included in the Category A list according to Regulation (EU) 2016/429 on transmissible animal diseases ('Animal Health Law'). This opinion belongs to a series of opinions where these control measures will be assessed, with this opinion covering the assessment of control measures for peste des petits ruminants (PPR). In this opinion, EFSA and the AHAW Panel of experts review the effectiveness of: (i) clinical and laboratory sampling procedures, (ii) monitoring period and (iii) the minimum radii of the protection and surveillance zones, and the minimum length of time the measures should be applied in these zones. The general methodology used for this series of opinions has been published elsewhere; nonetheless, the transmission kernels used for the assessment of the minimum radii of the protection and surveillance zones are shown. Several scenarios for which these control measures had to be assessed were designed and agreed prior to the start of the assessment. The monitoring period of 21 days was assessed as effective, except for the first affected establishments detected, where 33 days is recommended. It was concluded that beyond the protection (3 km) and the surveillance zones (10 km) only 9.6% (95% CI: 3.1-25.8%) and 2.3% (95% CI: 1-5.5%) of the infections from an affected establishment may occur, respectively. This may be considered sufficient to contain the disease spread (95% probability of containing transmission corresponds to 5.3 km). Recommendations provided for each of the scenarios assessed aim to support the European Commission in the drafting of further pieces of legislation, as well as for plausible ad-hoc requests in relation to PPR.

Perceptions of pastoralist problems: A participatory study on animal management, disease spectrum and animal health priorities of small ruminant pastoralists in Georgia

Small ruminants support the livelihoods of millions of poor pastoralist and sedentary households around the world. While pastoralists are generally not amongst the poorest in terms of assets, they are frequently marginalised in terms of their access to political power, health and education. This study was undertaken among pastoralist households keeping small ruminants in four regions of the country of Georgia. Small ruminants are an important cultural, social and economic asset in Georgia and are mainly managed in a transhumant pastoralist system. Georgia suffered its first, and so far only outbreak of peste des petits ruminants (PPR) in 2016. This qualitative interview study was designed to acquire contextual understanding of local small ruminant husbandry and the livelihood situations of the participating pastoralists, and to detect historical, unreported PPR outbreaks. Focus group discussions comprising participatory epidemiology tools and other forms of interviews were used to explore small ruminant management, disease spectrum and management, and animal health priorities. The participants had experienced a wide variety of animal health constraints, with intestinal worms, braxy, piroplasmosis, pasture-related problems, predators and lameness emerging as priorities. No historic, unreported PPR outbreak was detected in this study, and PPR was not a priority for participants. Instead, the day-to-day reality of animal health for the pastoralists was characterised by co-infections of mainly endemic pathogens, and problems related to other challenges such as access to land, feed and genetic resources. The rationale behind the participants' prioritisation of animal health problems was supported by the need to pay extra attention to animals in order to avoid risk factors, keep animals healthy and minimise the negative impact of diseases or management problems; the various epidemiological and clinical parameters of the prioritised diseases; the economic impact of the specific problems and the zoonotic potential of diseases and predation. Even within regions, and within seemingly socially and culturally homogenous groups, there were important local differences in the problems faced by pastoralists that affect their livestock management. This study underlines the importance of a contextualised understanding of the local disease panorama and complexities in the livelihood situations of rural people when designing actions to improve animal health in general or, more specifically, passive surveillance as well as prevention or control measures. Finally, it is concluded that to achieve such an understanding, there is a need for participatory, scoping-style studies that specifically acknowledge diversity and power relations.

Prediction for Global Peste des Petits Ruminants Outbreaks Based on a Combination of Random Forest Algorithms and Meteorological Data

Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is an acute and highly contagious transboundary disease caused by the PPR virus (PPRV). The virus infects goats, sheep and some wild relatives of small domestic ruminants, such as antelopes. PPR is listed by the World Organization for Animal Health as an animal disease that must be reported promptly. In this paper, PPR outbreak data combined with WorldClim database meteorological data were used to build a PPR prediction model. Using feature selection methods, eight sets of features were selected: bio3, bio10, bio15, bio18, prec7, prec8, prec12, and alt for modeling. Then different machine learning algorithms were used to build models, among which the random forest (RF) algorithm was found to have the best modeling effect. The ACC value of prediction accuracy for the model on the training set can reach 99.10%, while the ACC on the test sets was 99.10%. Therefore, RF algorithms and eight features were finally selected to build the model in order to build the online prediction system. In addition, we adopt single-factor modeling and correlation analysis of modeling variables to explore the impact of each variable on modeling results. It was found that bio18 (the warmest quarterly precipitation), prec7 (the precipitation in July), and prec8 (the precipitation in August) contributed significantly to the model, and the outbreak of the epidemic may have an important relationship with precipitation. Eventually, we used the final qualitative prediction model to establish a global online prediction system for the PPR epidemic.

Rift Valley Fever - epidemiological update and risk of introduction into Europe

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne disease transmitted by a broad spectrum of mosquito species, especially Aedes and Culex genus, to animals (domestic and wild ruminants and camels) and humans. Rift Valley fever is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa and in the Arabian Peninsula, with periodic epidemics characterised by 5-15 years of inter-epizootic periods. In the last two decades, RVF was notified in new African regions (e.g. Sahel), RVF epidemics occurred more frequently and low-level enzootic virus circulation has been demonstrated in livestock in various areas. Recent outbreaks in a French overseas department and some seropositive cases detected in Turkey, Tunisia and Libya raised the attention of the EU for a possible incursion into neighbouring countries. The movement of live animals is the most important pathway for RVF spread from the African endemic areas to North Africa and the Middle East. The movement of infected animals and infected vectors when shipped by flights, containers or road transport is considered as other plausible pathways of introduction into Europe. The overall risk of introduction of RVF into EU through the movement of infected animals is very low in all the EU regions and in all MSs (less than one epidemic every 500 years), given the strict EU animal import policy. The same level of risk of introduction in all the EU regions was estimated also considering the movement of infected vectors, with the highest level for Belgium, Greece, Malta, the Netherlands (one epidemic every 228-700 years), mainly linked to the number of connections by air and sea transports with African RVF infected countries. Although the EU territory does not seem to be directly exposed to an imminent risk of RVFV introduction, the risk of further spread into countries neighbouring the EU and the risks of possible introduction of infected vectors, suggest that EU authorities need to strengthen their surveillance and response capacities, as well as the collaboration with North African and Middle Eastern countries.

Development of vaccines for prevention of peste-des-petits-ruminants virus infection

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious and fatal disease of small ruminants, particularly sheep and goats. This disease leads to high morbidity and mortality of small ruminants, thus resulting in devastating economic loss to the livestock industry globally. The severe disease impact has prompted the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) to develop a global strategy for the control and eradication of PPR by 2030. Over the past decades, the control of PPR is mainly achieved through vaccinating the animals with live-attenuated vaccines, e.g., rinderpest vaccines. As a closely related disease to PPR of large ruminants, rinderpest was eradicated in 2011 and its vaccines subsequently got banned in order to keep rinderpest-free zones. Consequently, it is desirable to develop homologous PPR vaccines to control the disease. The present review summarizes the objectives of PPR control and eradication by focusing on the homologous PPR vaccines.

Camelids and Cattle Are Dead-End Hosts for Peste-des-Petits-Ruminants Virus

Peste-des-petits-ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a severe respiratory disease in small ruminants. The possible impact of different atypical host species in the spread and planed worldwide eradication of PPRV remains to be clarified. Recent transmission trials with the virulent PPRV lineage IV (LIV)-strain Kurdistan/2011 revealed that pigs and wild boar are possible sources of PPRV-infection. We therefore investigated the role of cattle, llamas, alpacas, and dromedary camels in transmission trials using the Kurdistan/2011 strain for intranasal infection and integrated a literature review for a proper evaluation of their host traits and role in PPRV-transmission. Cattle and camelids developed no clinical signs, no viremia, shed no or only low PPRV-RNA loads in swab samples and did not transmit any PPRV to the contact animals. The distribution of PPRV-RNA or antigen in lymphoid organs was similar in cattle and camelids although generally lower compared to suids and small ruminants. In the typical small ruminant hosts, the tissue tropism, pathogenesis and disease expression after PPRV-infection is associated with infection of immune and epithelial cells via SLAM and nectin-4 receptors, respectively. We therefore suggest a different pathogenesis in cattle and camelids and both as dead-end hosts for PPRV.

PPR Control in a Sahelian Setting: What Vaccination Strategy for Mauritania?

Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is a viral disease affecting domestic and small wild ruminants. Endemic in large parts of the world, PPR causes severe damages to animal production and household economies. In 2015, FAO and OIE launched a global eradication program (GCSE) based on vaccination campaigns. The success of GCSE shall depend on the implementation of vaccination campaigns, accounting for husbandry practices, mobility and the periodicity of small ruminants' population renewal. In Mauritania, PPR outbreaks occur annually despite ongoing annual vaccination campaigns since 2008. Here, we developed a mathematical model to assess the impact of four vaccination strategies (including the GSCE one), the importance of their timing of implementation and the usefulness of individual animal identification on the reduction of PPR burden. The model was calibrated on data collected through ad-hoc surveys about demographic dynamics, disease impact, and national seroprevalence using Monte Carlo Markov Chain procedure. Numerical simulations were used to estimate the number of averted deaths over the next 12 years. The model results showed that the GSCE strategy prevented the largest number of deaths (9.2 million vs. 6.2 for random strategy) and provided one of the highest economic returns among all strategies (Benefit-Cost Ratio around 16 vs. 7 for random strategy). According to its current cost, identification would be a viable investment that could reduce the number of vaccine doses to distribute by 20–60%. Whilst the implementation of the identification system is crucial for PPR control, its success depends also on a coordinated approach at the regional level.

Rapidly assessing the risks of infectious diseases to wildlife species

Predicting the likelihood of rare events is increasingly demanded by risk managers. A key challenge is dealing with different types of uncertainty, including epistemic uncertainties (lack of knowledge), stochasticity (inherent randomness) and natural variation. One potentially catastrophic event which is impacted by high levels of all three of these uncertainty types is the transmission of livestock pathogens to wildlife, particularly for endangered species. There is often a lack of basic information, e.g. about a given pathogen's presence in local livestock populations or the susceptibility of a given wildlife species to infection by the pathogen. We adapted the OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health) risk assessment framework to rapidly assess and prioritize the risks of livestock pathogens for wildlife, taking account of epistemic uncertainties, stochasticity, seasonal movement of animals and interaction between different species at different spatial and temporal scales. We demonstrate the approach using the endangered saiga antelope (Saiga tatarica tatarica) as a case study. We conclude that, in general, transmission events are likely to be rare and limited to small geographical areas; however, their impact could be high. Brucella spp. and foot-and-mouth disease virus are among those most likely to be transmitted from livestock to the Betpak-Dala saiga population.

Neglected Hosts of Small Ruminant Morbillivirus

Eradication of small ruminant morbillivirus (PPRV) is targeted for 2030. PPRV lineage IV is found in much of Asia and Africa. We used PPRV lineage IV strain Kurdistan/2011 in transmission trials to investigate the role of pigs, wild boar, and small ruminants as PPRV reservoirs. Suids were a possible source of infection.

A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), a devastating viral disease of sheep and goats, has been targeted by the global community for eradication within the next 15 years. Although an efficacious attenuated live vaccine is available, the lack of knowledge about the transmission potential of PPR virus (PPRV) may compromise eradication efforts. By fitting a metapopulation model simulating PPRV spread to the results of a nationwide serological survey in Ethiopia, we estimated the level of viral transmission in an endemic setting and the vaccination coverage required for elimination. Results suggest that the pastoral production system as a whole acts as a viral reservoir, from which PPRV spills over into the sedentary production system, where viral persistence is uncertain. Estimated levels of PPRV transmission indicate that viral spread could be prevented if the proportion of immune small ruminants is kept permanently above 37% in at least 71% of pastoral village populations. However, due to the high turnover of these populations, maintaining the fraction of immune animals above this threshold would require high vaccine coverage within villages, and vaccination campaigns to be conducted annually. Adapting vaccination strategies to the specific characteristics of the local epidemiological context and small ruminant population dynamics would result in optimized allocation of limited resources and increase the likelihood of PPR eradication.

Future research to underpin successful peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) eradication

Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) is a significant pathogen of small ruminants and is prevalent in much of Africa, the Near and Middle East and Asia. Despite the availability of an efficacious and cheap live-attenuated vaccine, the virus has continued to spread, with its range stretching from Morocco in the west to China and Mongolia in the east. Some of the world's poorest communities rely on small ruminant farming for subsistence and the continued endemicity of PPRV is a constant threat to their livelihoods. Moreover, PPRV's effects on the world's population are felt broadly across many economic, agricultural and social situations. This far-reaching impact has prompted the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) to develop a global strategy for the eradication of this virus and its disease. PPRV is a morbillivirus and, given the experience of these organizations in eradicating the related rinderpest virus, the eradication of PPRV should be feasible. However, there are many critical areas where basic and applied virological research concerning PPRV is lacking. The purpose of this review is to highlight areas where new research could be performed in order to guide and facilitate the eradication programme. These areas include studies on disease transmission and epidemiology, the existence of wildlife reservoirs and the development of next-generation vaccines and diagnostics. With the support of the international virology community, the successful eradication of PPRV can be achieved.

Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus

Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a severe contagious disease of sheep and goats and has spread extensively through the developing world. Because of its disproportionately large impact on the livelihoods of low-income livestock keepers, and the availability of effective vaccines and good diagnostics, the virus is being targeted for global control and eventual eradication. In this review we examine the origin of the virus and its current distribution, and the factors that have led international organizations to conclude that it is eradicable. We also review recent progress in the molecular and cellular biology of the virus and consider areas where further research is required to support the efforts being made by national, regional, and international bodies to tackle this growing threat.