Rift Valley Fever: risk of persistence, spread and impact in Mayotte (France)

Rift Valley fever in West Africa: A zoonotic disease with multiple socio-economic consequences

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is an arbovirus that causes Rift Valley fever (RVF), a zoonotic disease that mainly affects domestic and wildlife ruminants and humans. The first epidemic in North-Western and West Africa occurred in Senegal and Mauritania in 1987, two countries where RVF is now endemic. Slaughterhouse workers, farmers, herders and veterinarians are at high risk of exposure to RVF. Beyond the health threat, RVF is considered to cause major socio-economic problems, specifically in developing countries where livestock farming and trade are important economic activities. Indeed, the mortality rate linked to RVF infection can reach 95-100% in newborns and young animals. In West Africa, livestock production is a key factor for food production and for national economics. Epizootics caused by RVF can therefore have serious socio-economic consequences by impacting multisectoral economics, the psycho-social health of pastoral communities, and food security. Improving prevention strategies against RVF, including vaccination, enhancing knowledge of RVF and correcting any inappropriate behaviors by populations of endemics areas, as well as better monitoring of RVF ecological factors are effective ways to better foresee and control outbreaks of RVF and its socio-economical side-effects in countries at high risk of occurrence of the disease.

Natural hosts and animal models for Rift Valley fever phlebovirus

Rift Valley fever phlebovirus (RVFV) is a zoonotic mosquito-transmitted arbovirus, presenting a serious threat to humans and animals. Susceptible hosts are of great significance for the prevention of RVFV. Appropriate animal models are helpful to better understand the onset and development of diseases, as well as the control measures and vaccine research. This review focuses on the role of animal hosts in the maintenance of the virus, and summarizes the host range of RVFV. We list some common animal models in the process of RVFV research, which would provide some important insights into the prevention and treatment of RVFV, as well as the study of Rift Valley fever (RVF) pathogenesis and vaccines.

A quantitative risk assessment for the incursion of lumpy skin disease virus into Australia via long-distance windborne dispersal of arthropod vectors

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an infectious disease of cattle and water buffalo caused by lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV). It is primarily transmitted mechanically by biting insects. LSDV has spread from Africa to the Middle-East, the Balkans, Caucasus, Russia, Kazakhstan, China, Asia and India, suggesting that a wide variety of arthropod vectors are capable of mechanical transmission. In 2022, LSD was detected in Indonesia, heightening awareness for Australia's livestock industries. To better understand the risk of LSDV incursion to Australia we undertook a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) looking at windborne dispersal of arthropod vectors, assuming a hypothetical situation where LSD is endemic in south-east Asia and Papua New Guinea. We estimated the risk of LSDV incursion to be low, with a median incursion rate of one incursion every 403 years, based on a model where several infectious insects (i.e. a 'small batch' of 3-5) must bite a single bovine to transmit infection. The incursion risk increases substantially to one incursion every 7-8 years if a bite from a single insect is sufficient for transmission. The risk becomes negligible (one incursion every 20,706 years) if bites from many insects (i.e. a 'large batch' of 30-50 insects) are necessary. Critically, several of our parameter estimates were highly uncertain during sensitivity analyses. Thus, a key outcome of this QRA was to better prioritise surveillance activities and to understand the key research gaps associated with LSDV in the Australasian context. The current literature shows that multiple vectors are required for successful bovine-to-vector transmission of LSDV, suggesting that our estimate of one outbreak every 403 years more accurately represents the risk to Australia; however, the role of single insects in transmission has not yet been evaluated. Similarly, attempts to transmit LSDV between bovines by Culicoides have not been successful, although midges were the highest risk vector category in our model due to the high vector-to-host ratio for midges compared to other vector categories. Our findings provide further insight into the risk of LSD to Australian cattle industries and identify the Tiwi Islands and areas east of Darwin as priority regions for LSDV surveillance, especially between December and March.

A highly potent human neutralizing antibody prevents vertical transmission of Rift Valley fever virus in a rat model

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is an emerging mosquito-transmitted virus that circulates in livestock and humans in Africa and the Middle East. Outbreaks lead to high rates of miscarriages in domesticated livestock. Women are also at risk of vertical virus transmission and late-term miscarriages. MAb RVFV-268 is a highly potent recombinant neutralizing human monoclonal antibody that targets RVFV. Here we show that mAb RVFV-268 reduces viral replication in rat placenta explant cultures and prevents vertical transmission in a rat model of congenital RVF. Passive transfer of mAb RVFV-268 from mother to fetus occurs as early as 6 h after administration and persists through 24 h. Administering mAb RVFV-268 2 h prior to RVFV challenge or 24 h post-challenge protects the dams and offspring from RVFV infection. These findings support mAb RVFV-268 as a pre- and post-infection treatment to subvert RVFV infection and vertical transmission, thus protecting the mother and offspring.

Reconstructing Mayotte 2018-19 Rift Valley Fever outbreak in humans by combining serological and surveillance data

BACKGROUND

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a zoonosis that affects large parts of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. RVF virus (RVFV) is transmitted to humans through contacts with infected animals, animal products, mosquito bites or aerosols. Its pathogenesis in humans ranges from asymptomatic forms to potentially deadly haemorrhagic fevers, and the true burden of human infections during outbreaks is generally unknown.

METHODS

We build a model fitted to both passive surveillance data and serological data collected throughout a RVF epidemic that occurred in Mayotte Island in 2018-2019.

RESULTS

We estimate that RVFV infected 10,797 (95% CrI 4,728-16,127) people aged ≥15 years old in Mayotte during the entire outbreak, among which only 1.2% (0.67%-2.2%) were reported to the syndromic surveillance system. RVFV IgG seroprevalence in people ≥15 years old was estimated to increase from 5.5% (3.6%-7.7%) before the outbreak to 12.9% (10.4%-16.3%) thereafter.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that a large part of RVFV infected people present subclinical forms of the disease and/or do not reach medical care that could lead to their detection by the surveillance system. This may threaten the implementation of exhaustive RVF surveillance and adequate control programs in affected countries.

Assessment of the control measures of the category A diseases of Animal Health Law: Rift Valley Fever

EFSA received a mandate from the European Commission to assess the effectiveness of some of the control measures against diseases included in the Category A list according to Regulation (EU) 2016/429 on transmissible animal diseases ('Animal Health Law'). This opinion belongs to a series of opinions where these control measures were assessed for several diseases, with this opinion covering the assessment of control measures for Rift Valley Fever (RVF). In this opinion, EFSA and the AHAW Panel of experts review the effectiveness of: (i) clinical and laboratory sampling procedures, (ii) monitoring period and (iii) the minimum radius of the protection and surveillance zone and the minimum length of time the measures should be applied in these zones. The general methodology used for this series of opinions has been published elsewhere; nonetheless, the transmission kernels used for the assessment of the minimum radius of the protection and surveillance zones are shown. Several scenarios for which these control measures had to be assessed were designed and agreed prior to the start of the assessment. Different risk-based sampling procedures based on clinical visits and laboratory testing are assessed in case of outbreak suspicion, granting animal movements and for repopulation purposes. The length of monitoring period and minimum duration of measures to be implemented in the restricted zones as defined in the Delegated Regulation (30 days) are considered effective for the investigation and control of suspected and confirmed RVF outbreaks, as well as the size of protection and surveillance zone of 20 and 50 km, respectively, which are assessed as sufficient to contain disease transmission with at least 95% probability.

A user-friendly decision support tool to assist one-health risk assessors

One-Health risk assessments are integral to developing efficient responses to disease threats, including global pandemics. However, short timeframes, inadequate disease-specific information and an insufficient skill-base make it hard for inexperienced assessors to distinguish between a large portfolio of approaches. The wrong choice can detract from the disease response. Here, we present an interactive decision support tool to help with this choice. A workshop with participants from diverse professional backgrounds provided six themes that should be considered when deciding on the best approach. Questions based on these themes were then developed to populate a decision tree which guides users to their most appropriate approach. One-Health risk assessment tools and literature were used as examples of the different approaches. The tool provides links to these examples and short descriptions of the approaches. Answers are easily changed, facilitating exploration though different approaches. The simple data structure of the tool means it is easy to update with more resources and approaches. It provides a valuable source of guidance and information for less experienced risk assessors.

Assessing the introduction risk of vector-borne animal diseases for the Netherlands using MINTRISK: A Model for INTegrated RISK assessment

To evaluate and compare the risk of emerging vector-borne diseases (VBDs), a Model for INTegrated RISK assessment, MINTRISK, was developed to assess the introduction risk of VBDs for new regions in an objective, transparent and repeatable manner. MINTRISK is a web-based calculation tool, that provides semi-quantitative risk scores that can be used for prioritization purposes. Input into MINTRISK is entered by answering questions regarding entry, transmission, establishment, spread, persistence and impact of a selected VBD. Answers can be chosen from qualitative answer categories with accompanying quantitative explanation to ensure consistent answering. The quantitative information is subsequently used as input for the model calculations to estimate the risk for each individual step in the model and for the summarizing output values (rate of introduction; epidemic size; overall risk). The risk assessor can indicate his uncertainty on each answer, and this is accounted for by Monte Carlo simulation. MINTRISK was used to assess the risk of four VBDs (African horse sickness, epizootic haemorrhagic disease, Rift Valley fever, and West Nile fever) for the Netherlands with the aim to prioritise these diseases for preparedness. Results indicated that the overall risk estimate was very high for all evaluated diseases but epizootic haemorrhagic disease. Uncertainty intervals were, however, wide limiting the options for ranking of the diseases. Risk profiles of the VBDs differed. Whereas all diseases were estimated to have a very high economic impact once introduced, the estimated introduction rates differed from low for Rift Valley fever and epizootic haemorrhagic disease to moderate for African horse sickness and very high for West Nile fever. Entry of infected mosquitoes on board of aircraft was deemed the most likely route of introduction for West Nile fever into the Netherlands, followed by entry of infected migratory birds.

Modelling the persistence and control of Rift Valley fever virus in a spatially heterogeneous landscape

The persistence mechanisms of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a zoonotic arboviral haemorrhagic fever, at both local and broader geographical scales have yet to be fully understood and rigorously quantified. We developed a mathematical metapopulation model describing RVF virus transmission in livestock across the four islands of the Comoros archipelago, accounting for island-specific environments and inter-island animal movements. By fitting our model in a Bayesian framework to 2004-2015 surveillance data, we estimated the importance of environmental drivers and animal movements on disease persistence, and tested the impact of different control scenarios on reducing disease burden throughout the archipelago. Here we report that (i) the archipelago network was able to sustain viral transmission in the absence of explicit disease introduction events after early 2007, (ii) repeated outbreaks during 2004-2020 may have gone under-detected by local surveillance, and (iii) co-ordinated within-island control measures are more effective than between-island animal movement restrictions.

The central role of Italy in the spatial spread of USUTU virus in Europe

USUTU virus (USUV) is an arbovirus maintained in the environment through a bird-mosquito enzootic cycle. Previous surveillance plans highlighted the endemicity of USUV in North-eastern Italy. In this work, we sequenced 138 new USUV full genomes from mosquito pools (Culex pipiens) and wild birds collected in North-eastern Italy and we investigated the evolutionary processes (phylogenetic analysis, selection pressure and evolutionary time-scale analysis) and spatial spread of USUV strains circulating in the European context and in Italy, with a particular focus on North-eastern Italy. Our results confirmed the circulation of viruses belonging to four different lineages in Italy (EU1, EU2, EU3 and EU4), with the newly sequenced viruses from the North-eastern regions, Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia, belonging to the EU2 lineage and clustering into two different sub-lineages, EU2-A and EU2-B. Specific mutations characterize each European lineage and geographic location seem to have shaped their phylogenetic structure. By investigating the spatial spread in Europe, we were able to show that Italy acted mainly as donor of USUV to neighbouring countries. At a national level, we identified two geographical clusters mainly circulating in Northern and North-western Italy, spreading both northward and southward. Our analyses provide important information on the spatial and evolutionary dynamics of USUTU virus that can help to improve surveillance plans and control strategies for this virus of increasing concern for human health.

The role of livestock movements in the spread of Rift Valley fever virus in animals and humans in Mayotte, 2018-19

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne viral disease of major animal and public health importance. In 2018–19, it caused an epidemic in both livestock and human populations of the island of Mayotte. Using Bayesian modelling approaches, we assessed the spatio-temporal pattern of RVF virus (RVFV) infection in livestock and human populations across the island, and factors shaping it. First, we assessed if (i) livestock movements, (ii) spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, and (iii) livestock density were associated with the temporal sequence of RVFV introduction into Mayotte communes’ livestock populations. Second, we assessed whether the rate of human infection was associated with (a) spatial proximity from and (b) livestock density of communes with infected animals. Our analyses showed that the temporal sequence of RVFV introduction into communes’ livestock populations was associated with livestock movements and spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, with livestock movements being associated with the best model fit. Moreover, the pattern of human cases was associated with their spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, with the risk of human infection sharply increasing if livestock in the same or close communes were infected. This study highlights the importance of understanding livestock movement networks in informing the design of risk-based RVF surveillance programs.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne zoonotic disease, endemic in many sub-Saharan Africa regions with substantial outbreaks. RVF virus (RVFV) is transmitted to animals primarily by the bite of infected mosquitos, whereas direct or indirect contact with infected animals forms the primary route of RVFV transmission to humans. In 2018–19, Mayotte, an archipelago in the Indian Ocean between Madagascar and the coast of Eastern Africa, experienced an RVF epidemic in both livestock and humans. In this study, we investigated factors shaping the spatio-temporal pattern of RVFV infection in livestock and human populations across Mayotte. The diffusion of RVFV through Mayotte’s livestock population was associated with livestock movements and, potentially to a lesser extent, spatial proximity from communes with infected animals. Moreover, the pressure of infection on humans was the highest if nearby livestock were infected. This study highlights the value of accounting for the structure of livestock movement networks in the surveillance of zoonotic diseases at the human-animal interface, and the need for One Health approaches.

Rift Valley Fever - assessment of effectiveness of surveillance and control measures in the EU

Effectiveness of surveillance and control measures against Rift Valley Fever (RVF) in Mayotte (overseas France) and in continental EU were assessed using mathematical models. Surveillance for early detection of RVF virus circulation implies very low design prevalence values and thus sampling a high number of animals, so feasibility issues may rise. Passive surveillance based on notified abortions in ruminants is key for early warning and at present the only feasible surveillance option. The assessment of vaccination and culling against RVF in Mayotte suggests that vaccination is more effective when quickly implemented throughout the population, e.g. at a rate of 200 or 2,000 animals vaccinated per day. Test and cull is not an option for RVF control in Mayotte given the high number of animals that would need to be tested. If the risk of RVFV introduction into the continental EU increases, ruminant establishments close to possible points of disease incursion should be included in the surveillance. An enhanced surveillance on reproductive disorders should be applied during summer in risk areas. Serosurveillance targets of 0.3% animals should be at least considered. RVF control measures possibly applied in the continental EU have been assessed in the Netherlands, as an example. Culling animals on farms within a 20 km radius of detected farms appears as the most effective measure to control RVF spread, although too many animals should be culled. Alternative measures are vaccination in a 50 km radius around detection, ring vaccination between 20 and 50 km and culling of detected farms. The assessment of zoning showed that, following RVFV introduction and considering an R0 = 2, a mean vector dispersal of 10 km and 10 farms initially detected, RVFV would spread beyond a radius of up to 100 km or 50 km from the infected area with 10% or 55% probability, respectively.

Estimation of Rift Valley fever virus spillover to humans during the Mayotte 2018-2019 epidemic

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an emerging, zoonotic hemorrhagic fever, affecting mainly livestock and humans in Africa. Despite its growing global concern, the impact of control measures on epidemic dynamics using empirical data has not been assessed. By combining a unique RVF epidemic dataset covering both livestock and human data in a closed ecosystem (Mayotte island) with a dynamic model, we estimate viral transmission potential among livestock, and from livestock to humans. We also quantify the impact of vaccination in decreasing the epidemic size. We demonstrate that reactive livestock vaccination is key. We present a reference case study for RVF and illustrate the value of a One Health quantitative approach to surveillance and control of zoonotic infectious diseases.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an emerging, zoonotic, arboviral hemorrhagic fever threatening livestock and humans mainly in Africa. RVF is of global concern, having expanded its geographical range over the last decades. The impact of control measures on epidemic dynamics using empirical data has not been assessed. Here, we fitted a mathematical model to seroprevalence livestock and human RVF case data from the 2018–2019 epidemic in Mayotte to estimate viral transmission among livestock, and spillover from livestock to humans through both direct contact and vector-mediated routes. Model simulations were used to assess the impact of vaccination on reducing the epidemic size. The rate of spillover by direct contact was about twice as high as vector transmission. Assuming 30% of the population were farmers, each transmission route contributed to 45% and 55% of the number of human infections, respectively. Reactive vaccination immunizing 20% of the livestock population reduced the number of human cases by 30%. Vaccinating 1 mo later required using 50% more vaccine doses for a similar reduction. Vaccinating only farmers required 10 times as more vaccine doses for a similar reduction in human cases. Finally, with 52.0% (95% credible interval [CrI] [42.9–59.4]) of livestock immune at the end of the epidemic wave, viral reemergence in the next rainy season (2019–2020) is unlikely. Coordinated human and animal health surveillance, and timely livestock vaccination appear to be key to controlling RVF in this setting. We furthermore demonstrate the value of a One Health quantitative approach to surveillance and control of zoonotic infectious diseases.