Transmission rates of veterinary and clinically important antibiotic resistant Escherichia coli: A meta- ANALYSIS

The transmission rate per hour between hosts is a key parameter for simulating transmission dynamics of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, and might differ for antibiotic resistance genes, animal species, and antibiotic usage. We conducted a Bayesian meta-analysis of resistant Escherichia coli (E. coli) transmission in broilers and piglets to obtain insight in factors determining the transmission rate, infectious period, and reproduction ratio. We included blaCTX-M-1, blaCTX-M-2, blaOXA-162, catA1, mcr-1, and fluoroquinolone resistant E. coli. The Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) transmission rate in broilers without antibiotic treatment ranged from 0.4∙10-3 to 2.5∙10-3 depending on type of broiler (SPF vs conventional) and inoculation strains. For piglets, the MAP in groups without antibiotic treatment were between 0.7∙10-3 and 0.8∙10-3, increasing to 0.9∙10-3 in the group with antibiotic treatment. In groups without antibiotic treatment, the transmission rate of resistant E. coli in broilers was almost twice the transmission rate in piglets. Amoxicillin increased the transmission rate of E. coli carrying blaCTX-M-2 by three-fold. The MAP infectious period of resistant E. coli in piglets with and without antibiotics is between 971 and 1065 hours (40 - 43 days). The MAP infectious period of resistant E. coli in broiler without antibiotics is between 475 and 2306 hours (20 - 96 days). The MAP infectious period of resistant E. coli in broiler with antibiotics is between 2702 and 3462 hours (113 - 144 days) which means a lifelong colonization. The MAP basic reproduction ratio in piglets of infection with resistant E. coli when using antibiotics is 27.70, which is higher than MAP in piglets without antibiotics between 15.65 and 18.19. The MAP basic reproduction ratio in broilers ranges between 3.46 and 92.38. We consider three possible explanations for our finding that in the absence of antibiotics the transmission rate is higher among broilers than among piglets: i) due to the gut microbiome of animals, ii) fitness costs of bacteria, and iii) differences in experimental set-up between the studies. Regarding infectious period and reproduction ratio, the effect of the resistance gene, antibiotic treatment, and animal species are inconclusive due to limited data.

Quantifying health risks from ESBL-producing Escherichia coli in Dutch broiler production chains and potential interventions using compartmental models

Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Escherichia coli (E. coli) in animals are considered a human health threat, because this type of bacteria can serve as a reservoir of antibiotic resistant genes and act as a continuous threat of the emergence of new resistant bacteria, in addition to the direct effect of making infection untreatable. Although the prevalence of ESBL producing bacteria in broilers was drastically reduced in the Netherlands, chicken meat still has the highest prevalence among meat products. Therefore, further control of the ESBL-producing E. coli in the broiler production chain is important to reduce public health risks. The main objectives of this study were to evaluate the effectiveness of intervention scenarios to reduce the transmission of ESBL-producing E. coli in the broiler production chain and to quantitatively estimate the risk to public health. In this study, we developed two different types of transmission models that described the observed time-related decline in prevalence during a production round: one with time-dependent decline in susceptibility and one with partial immunity to phylogenetic groups. Both models incorporated the environmental contamination effect between production rounds and within flocks. The parameter values, including transmission rate and recovery rate, were estimated by Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method using data from a longitudinal study in a Dutch organic broiler farm. We applied the models to the three production stages in the broiler production chain, beginning from the Parent Stock (PS) farms, the hatcheries, and to the broiler farms. In our models, eggs were collected from different parent stock farms and transported to the hatchery and from there to a broiler farm.The size of a flock and the number of farms were adjusted to the Dutch situation. Both models were able to describe the observed dynamics within and between the production stages equally well, with estimated ESBL-producing E. coli prevalence of 8.98% and 11.47% in broilers at slaughter and 0.12% and 0.15% in humans due to chicken consumption. Both models indicated that improving farm management to eliminate the bacteria from the environment was the most effective intervention, making this outcome robust. Although chicken meat consumption is not a major risk factor for human carriage of the bacteria according to our models, reducing the bacteria in the PS and broiler farm environment to at least one percent can further decrease the prevalence in humans.

Evaluation of foot and mouth disease control measures: Simulating two endemic areas of Thailand

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is an important livestock disease in Thailand, with outbreaks occurring every year. However, the effects of FMD control measures in Thailand have received little research attention. Epidemiological models have been widely used to evaluate FMD outbreak control, but such a model has never been developed for Thailand. We constructed a stochastic between-farm transmission model to evaluate FMD control measures. The epidemiological unit of the model was the farm, which could be in different states: susceptible, latent, undetected infectious, detected infectious and recovered. The between-farm transmission was calculated by the sum of distance-dependent transmission and trade network transmission using parameters derived from FMD outbreaks in 2016-2017. We used this model to simulate the outbreaks with and without the implementation of the following control measures: culling all animals on infected farms, ring vaccination, animal movement restrictions and isolation of infected farms. The control measures were evaluated by estimating the number of secondarily infected farms and the outbreak duration for each scenario. The model was simulated in two study areas located in the Lamphaya Klang subdistrict (high farm density) and the Bo Phloi district (low farm density). The effects of control measures differed between the two study areas. When farm density was high, rigid control measures were required to prevent a major outbreak. Among all options, culling the animals on infected farms resulted in the lowest number of infected farms and the shortest outbreak duration. In contrast, for an area with a low farm density, less stringent control measures were sufficient to control the usually minor outbreaks. The results indicate that different areas require a different approach to control an outbreak of FMD.

A Bayesian inference method to estimate transmission trees with multiple introductions; applied to SARS-CoV-2 in Dutch mink farms

Knowledge of who infected whom during an outbreak of an infectious disease is important to determine risk factors for transmission and to design effective control measures. Both whole-genome sequencing of pathogens and epidemiological data provide useful information about the transmission events and underlying processes. Existing models to infer transmission trees usually assume that the pathogen is introduced only once from outside into the population of interest. However, this is not always true. For instance, SARS-CoV-2 is suggested to be introduced multiple times in mink farms in the Netherlands from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic among humans. Here, we developed a Bayesian inference method combining whole-genome sequencing data and epidemiological data, allowing for multiple introductions of the pathogen in the population. Our method does not a priori split the outbreak into multiple phylogenetic clusters, nor does it break the dependency between the processes of mutation, within-host dynamics, transmission, and observation. We implemented our method as an additional feature in the R-package phybreak. On simulated data, our method correctly identifies the number of introductions, with an accuracy depending on the proportion of all observed cases that are introductions. Moreover, when a single introduction was simulated, our method produced similar estimates of parameters and transmission trees as the existing package. When applied to data from a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Dutch mink farms, the method provides strong evidence for independent introductions of the pathogen at 13 farms, infecting a total of 63 farms. Using the new feature of the phybreak package, transmission routes of a more complex class of infectious disease outbreaks can be inferred which will aid infection control in future outbreaks.

Comparing the transmission of carbapenemase-producing and extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli between broiler chickens

The emergence of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) is a threat to public health, because of their resistance to clinically important carbapenem antibiotics. The emergence of CPE in meat-producing animals is particularly worrying because consumption of meat contaminated with resistant bacteria comparable to CPE, such as extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Enterobacteriaceae, contributed to colonization in humans worldwide. Currently, no data on the transmission of CPE in livestock is available. We performed a transmission experiment to quantify the transmission of CPE between broilers to fill this knowledge gap and to compare the transmission rates of CPE and other antibiotic-resistant E. coli. A total of 180 Ross 308 broiler chickens were distributed over 12 pens on the day of hatch (day 0). On day 5, half of the 10 remaining chickens in each pen were orally inoculated with 5·102 colony-forming units of CPE, ESBL, or chloramphenicol-resistant E. coli (catA1). To evaluate the effect of antibiotic treatment, amoxicillin was given twice daily in drinking water in 6 of the 12 pens from days 2-6. Cloacal swabs of all animals were taken to determine the number of infectious broilers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify the transmission of the E. coli strains. E. coli can survive in the environment and serve as a reservoir. Therefore, the susceptible-infectious transmission model was adapted to account for the transmission of resistant bacteria from the environment. In addition, the caecal microbiome was analyzed on day 5 and at the end of the experiment on day 14 to assess the relationship between the caecal microbiome and the transmission rates. The transmission rates of CPE were 52 - 68 per cent lower compared to ESBL and catA1, but it is not clear if these differences were caused by differences between the resistance genes or by other differences between the E. coli strains. Differences between the groups in transmission rates and microbiome diversity did not correspond to each other, indicating that differences in transmission rates were probably not caused by major differences in the community structure in the caecal microbiome. Amoxicillin treatment from day 2-6 increased the transmission rate more than three-fold in all inoculums. It also increased alpha-diversity compared to untreated animals on day 5, but not on day 14, suggesting only a temporary effect. Future research could incorporate more complex transmission models with different species of resistant bacteria into the Bayesian hierarchical model.

Contribution of cats and dogs to SARS-CoV-2 transmission in households

Introduction

SARS-CoV-2 is known to jump across species. The occurrence of transmission in households between humans and companion animals has been shown, but the contribution of companion animals to the overall transmission within a household is unknown. The basic reproduction number (R₀) is an important indicator to quantify transmission. For a pathogen with multiple host species, such as SARS-CoV-2, the basic reproduction number needs to be calculated from the partial reproduction numbers for each combination of host species.

Method

In this study, the basic and partial reproduction numbers for SARS-CoV-2 were estimated by reanalyzing a survey of Dutch households with dogs and cats and minimally one SARS-CoV-2-infected human.

Results

For households with cats, a clear correlation between the number of cats and the basic reproduction number (Spearman's correlation: p 0.40, p-value: 1.4 × 10^-5) was identified, while for dogs, the correlation was smaller and not significant (Spearman's correlation: p 0.12, p-value: 0.21). Partial reproduction numbers from cats or dogs to humans were 0.3 (0.0-2.0) and 0.3 (0.0-3.5) and from humans to cats or dogs were 0.6 (0.4-0.8) and 0.6 (0.4-0.9).

Discussion

Thus, the estimations of within-household transmission indicated the likelihood of transmission from these companion animals to humans and vice versa, but the observational nature of this study limited the ability to establish conclusive evidence. This study's findings support the advice provided during the pandemic to COVID-19 patients to maintain distance from companion animals as a precautionary measure and given the possibility of transmission, although there is an overall relatively limited impact on the pandemic when compared to human-to-human transmission.

Conserved developmental trajectories of the cecal microbiota of broiler chickens in a field study

There is great interest in identifying gut microbiota development patterns and underlying assembly rules that can inform strategies to improve broiler health and performance. Microbiota stratification using community types helps to simplify complex and dynamic ecosystem principles of the intestinal microbiota. This study aimed to identify community types to increase insight in intestinal microbiota variation between broilers and to identify factors that explain this variation. A total of 10 well-performing poultry flocks on four farms were followed. From each flock, the cecal content of nine broilers was collected at 7, 14, and 35 days posthatch. A total of two robust community types were observed using different clustering methods, one of which was dominated by 7-day-old broilers, and one by 35-day-old broilers. Broilers, 14-day-old, were divided across both community types. This is the first study that showed conserved cecal microbiota development trajectories in commercial broiler flocks. In addition to the temporal development with age, the cecal microbiota variation between broilers was explained by the flock, body weight, and the different feed components. Our data support a conserved development of cecal microbiota, despite strong influence of environmental factors. Further investigation of mechanisms underlying microbiota development and function is required to facilitate intestinal health promoting management, diagnostics, and nutritional interventions.

Estimating plasmid conjugation rates: A new computational tool and a critical comparison of methods

Plasmids are important vectors for the spread of genes among diverse populations of bacteria. However, there is no standard method to determine the rate at which they spread horizontally via conjugation. Here, we compare commonly used methods on simulated and experimental data, and show that the resulting conjugation rate estimates often depend strongly on the time of measurement, the initial population densities, or the initial ratio of donor to recipient populations. Differences in growth rate, e.g. induced by sub-lethal antibiotic concentrations or temperature, can also significantly bias conjugation rate estimates. We derive a new 'end-point' measure to estimate conjugation rates, which extends the well-known Simonsen method to include the effects of differences in population growth and conjugation rates from donors and transconjugants. We further derive analytical expressions for the parameter range in which these approximations remain valid. We present an easy to use R package and web interface which implement both new and previously existing methods to estimate conjugation rates. The result is a set of tools and guidelines for accurate and comparable measurement of plasmid conjugation rates.

Quantitative Risk Assessment for the Introduction of Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) into Dutch Livestock Farms

Early detection of emerging carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) in food-producing animals is essential to control the spread of CPE. We assessed the risk of CPE introduction from imported livestock, livestock feed, companion animals, hospital patients, and returning travelers into livestock farms in The Netherlands, including (1) broiler, (2) broiler breeder, (3) fattening pig, (4) breeding pig, (5) farrow-to-finish pig, and (6) veal calf farms. The expected annual number of introductions was calculated from the number of farms exposed to each CPE source and the probability that at least one animal in an exposed farm is colonized. The total number of farms with CPE colonization was estimated to be the highest for fattening pig farms, whereas the probability of introduction for an individual farm was the highest for broiler farms. Livestock feed and imported livestock are the most likely sources of CPE introduction into Dutch livestock farms. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the number of fattening pig farms determined the number of high introductions in fattening pigs from feed, and that uncertainty on CPE prevalence impacted the absolute risk estimate for all farm types. The results of this study can be used to inform risk-based surveillance for CPE in livestock farms.

Second compartment widens plasmid invasion conditions: Two-compartment pair-formation model of conjugation in the gut

Understanding under which conditions conjugative plasmids encoding antibiotic resistance can invade bacterial communities in the gut is of particular interest to combat the spread of antibiotic resistance within and between animals and humans. We extended a one-compartment model of conjugation to a two-compartment model, to analyse how differences in plasmid dynamics in the gut lumen and at the gut wall affect the invasion of plasmids. We compared scenarios with one and two compartments, different migration rates between the lumen and wall compartments, and different population dynamics. We focused on the effect of attachment and detachment rates on plasmid dynamics, explicitly describing pair formation followed by plasmid transfer in the pairs. The parameter space allowing plasmid invasion in the one-compartment model is affected by plasmid costs and intrinsic conjugation rates of the transconjugant, but not by these characteristics of the donor. The parameter space allowing plasmid invasion in the two-compartment model is affected by attachment and detachment rates in the lumen and wall compartment, and by the bacterial density at the wall. The one- and two-compartment models predict the same parameter space for plasmid invasion if the conditions in both compartments are equal to the conditions in the one-compartment model. In contrast, the addition of the wall compartment widens the parameter space allowing invasion compared with the one-compartment model, if the density at the wall is higher than in the lumen, or if the attachment rate at the wall is high and the detachment rate at the wall is low. We also compared the pair-formation models with bulk-conjugation models that describe conjugation by instantaneous transfer of the plasmid at contact between cells, without explicitly describing pair formation. Our results show that pair-formation and bulk-conjugation models predict the same parameter space for plasmid invasion. From our simulations, we conclude that conditions at the gut wall should be taken into account to describe plasmid dynamics in the gut and that transconjugant characteristics rather than donor characteristics should be used to parameterize the models.

Chicken gut microbiome members limit the spread of an antimicrobial resistance plasmid in Escherichia coli

Plasmid-mediated antimicrobial resistance is a major contributor to the spread of resistance genes within bacterial communities. Successful plasmid spread depends upon a balance between plasmid fitness effects on the host and rates of horizontal transmission. While these key parameters are readily quantified in vitro, the influence of interactions with other microbiome members is largely unknown. Here, we investigated the influence of three genera of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) derived from the chicken gastrointestinal microbiome on the spread of an epidemic narrow-range ESBL resistance plasmid, IncI1 carrying blaCTX-M-1, in mixed cultures of isogenic Escherichia coli strains. Secreted products of LAB decreased E. coli growth rates in a genus-specific manner but did not affect plasmid transfer rates. Importantly, we quantified plasmid transfer rates by controlling for density-dependent mating opportunities. Parametrization of a mathematical model with our in vitro estimates illustrated that small fitness costs of plasmid carriage may tip the balance towards plasmid loss under growth conditions in the gastrointestinal tract. This work shows that microbial interactions can influence plasmid success and provides an experimental-theoretical framework for further study of plasmid transfer in a microbiome context.

Assessing the introduction risk of vector-borne animal diseases for the Netherlands using MINTRISK: A Model for INTegrated RISK assessment

To evaluate and compare the risk of emerging vector-borne diseases (VBDs), a Model for INTegrated RISK assessment, MINTRISK, was developed to assess the introduction risk of VBDs for new regions in an objective, transparent and repeatable manner. MINTRISK is a web-based calculation tool, that provides semi-quantitative risk scores that can be used for prioritization purposes. Input into MINTRISK is entered by answering questions regarding entry, transmission, establishment, spread, persistence and impact of a selected VBD. Answers can be chosen from qualitative answer categories with accompanying quantitative explanation to ensure consistent answering. The quantitative information is subsequently used as input for the model calculations to estimate the risk for each individual step in the model and for the summarizing output values (rate of introduction; epidemic size; overall risk). The risk assessor can indicate his uncertainty on each answer, and this is accounted for by Monte Carlo simulation. MINTRISK was used to assess the risk of four VBDs (African horse sickness, epizootic haemorrhagic disease, Rift Valley fever, and West Nile fever) for the Netherlands with the aim to prioritise these diseases for preparedness. Results indicated that the overall risk estimate was very high for all evaluated diseases but epizootic haemorrhagic disease. Uncertainty intervals were, however, wide limiting the options for ranking of the diseases. Risk profiles of the VBDs differed. Whereas all diseases were estimated to have a very high economic impact once introduced, the estimated introduction rates differed from low for Rift Valley fever and epizootic haemorrhagic disease to moderate for African horse sickness and very high for West Nile fever. Entry of infected mosquitoes on board of aircraft was deemed the most likely route of introduction for West Nile fever into the Netherlands, followed by entry of infected migratory birds.

Spatial model of foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in an endemic area of Thailand

Foot-and-mouth disease (FDM) is a disease of cloven-hoofed animals with high costs in animal welfare and animal production. Up to now, transmission between farms in FMD-endemic areas has been given little attention. Between farm transmission can be quantified by distance independent transmission parameters and a spatial transmission kernel indicating the rate of transmission of an infected farm to susceptible farms depending on the distance. The spatial transmission kernel and distance-independent transmission parameters were estimated from data of an FMD outbreak in Lamphaya Klang subdistrict in Thailand between 2016 and 2017. The spatial between-farm transmission rate in Lamphaya Klang subdistrict was higher compared with the spatial between-farm transmission rate from FMDV in epidemic areas. The result can be explained by the larger size of the within-farm outbreak in the endemic area due to no culling. The inclusion of distance-independent transmission parameters improved the model fit, which suggests the presence of transmission sources from outside the area and spread within the area independent of the distance between farms. The remaining distance-dependent transmission was mainly local and could be due to over-the-fence transmission or other forms of contact between nearby farms. Farm size on the kernel positively affects the transmission rate, by increasing both infectivity and susceptibility with increasing farm size. The results showed that both distance-dependent transmission and distance-independent transmission were contributed to FMDV transmission in Lamphaya Klang outbreak. These transmission parameters help to gain knowledge about FMD transmission dynamic in the endemic area.

SARS-CoV-2 infection in cats and dogs in infected mink farms

Animals like mink, cats and dogs are susceptible to SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. In the Netherlands, 69 out of 127 mink farms were infected with SARS‐CoV‐2 between April and November 2020 and all mink on infected farms were culled after SARS‐CoV‐2 infection to prevent further spread of the virus. On some farms, (feral) cats and dogs were present. This study provides insight into the prevalence of SARS‐CoV‐2‐positive cats and dogs in 10 infected mink farms and their possible role in transmission of the virus. Throat and rectal swabs of 101 cats (12 domestic and 89 feral cats) and 13 dogs of 10 farms were tested for SARS‐CoV‐2 using PCR. Serological assays were performed on serum samples from 62 adult cats and all 13 dogs. Whole Genome Sequencing was performed on one cat sample. Cat‐to‐mink transmission parameters were estimated using data from all 10 farms. This study shows evidence of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection in 12 feral cats and 2 dogs. Eleven cats (18%) and two dogs (15%) tested serologically positive. Three feral cats (3%) and one dog (8%) tested PCR‐positive. The sequence generated from the cat throat swab clustered with mink sequences from the same farm. The calculated rate of mink‐to‐cat transmission showed that cats on average had a chance of 12% (95%CI 10%–18%) of becoming infected by mink, assuming no cat‐to‐cat transmission. As only feral cats were infected it is most likely that infections in cats were initiated by mink, not by humans. Whether both dogs were infected by mink or humans remains inconclusive. This study presents one of the first reports of interspecies transmission of SARS‐CoV‐2 that does not involve humans, namely mink‐to‐cat transmission, which should also be considered as a potential risk for spread of SARS‐CoV‐2.

Competitive Exclusion Prevents Colonization and Compartmentalization Reduces Transmission of ESBL-Producing Escherichia coli in Broilers

Extended spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing bacteria are resistant to extended-spectrum cephalosporins and are common in broilers. Interventions are needed to reduce the prevalence of ESBL-producing bacteria in the broiler production pyramid. This study investigated two different interventions. The effect of a prolonged supply of competitive exclusion (CE) product and compartmentalization on colonization and transmission, after challenge with a low dose of ESBL-producing Escherichia coli, in broilers kept under semi-field conditions, were examined. One-day-old broilers (Ross 308) (n = 400) were housed in four experimental rooms, subdivided in one seeder (S/C1)-pen and eight contact (C2)-pens. In two rooms, CE product was supplied from day 0 to 7. At day 5, seeder-broilers were inoculated with E. coli strain carrying bla CTX-M- 1 on plasmid IncI1 (CTX-M-1-E. coli). Presence of CTX-M-1-E. coli was determined using cloacal swabs (day 5-21 daily) and cecal samples (day 21). Time until colonization and cecal excretion (log10 CFU/g) were analyzed using survival analysis and linear regression. Transmission coefficients within and between pens were estimated using maximum likelihood. The microbiota composition was assessed by 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicon sequencing in cecal content of broilers on days 5 and 21. None of the CE broilers was CTX-M-1-E. coli positive. In contrast, in the untreated rooms 187/200 of the broilers were CTX-M-1-E. coli positive at day 21. Broilers in C2-pens were colonized later than seeder-broilers (Time to event Ratio 3.53, 95% CI 3.14 to 3.93). The transmission coefficient between pens was lower than within pens (3.28 × 10-4 day-2, 95% CI 2.41 × 10-4 to 4.32 × 10-4 vs. 6.12 × 10-2 day-2, 95% CI 4.78 × 10-2 to 7.64 × 10-2). The alpha diversity of the cecal microbiota content was higher in CE broilers than in control broilers at days 5 and 21. The supply of a CE product from day 0 to 7 prevented colonization of CTX-M-1-E. coli after challenge at day 5, likely as a result of CE induced effects on the microbiota composition. Furthermore, compartmentalization reduced transmission rate between broilers. Therefore, a combination of compartmentalization and supply of a CE product may be a useful intervention to reduce transmission and prevent colonization of ESBL/pAmpC-producing bacteria in the broiler production pyramid.

Associations between phenotypic characteristics and clinical parameters of broilers and intestinal microbial development throughout a production cycle: A field study

Disturbances in intestinal health are a common problem affecting commercial broiler chickens worldwide. Several studies have revealed associations between health, production performance, and intestinal microbiota. This study aimed to describe the development of the intestinal microbiota of broilers within a production cycle to evaluate to what extent clinical parameters and phenotypic characteristics can explain the intestinal microbiota variation. Of four well-performing flocks within two farms, the cecal content was collected of nine broilers at 0, 2, 4, or 5, 7, 11, or 12, 14, 21, 28, 35, and 40 days of the production cycle. In total, 342 samples were analyzed using 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicon sequencing. Variables as macroscopic gut abnormalities, gut lesions, age, individual body weight, sex, footpad integrity, the color of ceca, and foam in cecal content were determined. Ileum tissue was collected for histological quantification of villus length and crypt depth. Flock infection levels of the intestinal disease coccidiosis were measured in pooled feces from the poultry house. Increases in phylogenetic diversity were observed from hatch until day 21 of age. Constrained multivariate analysis indicated that age, farm, body weight, ileum crypt depth, cecal color, and the coccidiosis lesion score were important variables to describe the variation in cecal microbiota. These results contribute to determining relevant variables in flocks that may be indicative of the intestinal microbiota composition. Moreover, this knowledge increases the awareness of interactions between the intestinal microbiota and broiler health as well as their relative importance.

Dynamics of faecal shedding of ESBL- or AmpC-producing Escherichia coli on dairy farms

Objectives

To explore the dynamics of faecal ESBL/AmpC shedding in dairy cattle and farmers, a study was conducted to examine changes in shedding by individual animals, as well as environmental exposure, and to study the association between antimicrobial use (AMU) and ESBL/AmpC shedding.

Methods

The study comprised a cross-sectional survey of 20 farms and a 1 year follow-up of 10 farms. Faecal samples were cultured by both direct inoculation on MacConkey agar + 1 mg/L cefotaxime (MC+) and enrichment in LB-broth + 1 mg/L cefotaxime with subsequent inoculation on MC+. Dust samples were collected using electrostatic dustfall collectors (EDCs). Human faecal samples were collected by the farmers. Presence of ESBL/AmpC genes was screened for by PCR and sequencing. Using mixed effects logistic regression, ORs were determined and population-attributable fractions (PAFs) calculated subsequently.

Results

In Phase 1, 8/20 farms were positive for ESBL/AmpC and, with 2 negative farms, were selected for Phase 2. Transient shedding of dominant allele variants was observed in the animals. EDCs and human faecal samples did not reflect what was observed in the animals. AMU was related to shedding of ESBLs in the next sampling moment [OR 14.6 (95% CI 3.0–80.0)] and the PAF of AMU was 0.36 (95% CI 0.08–0.77). Calves fed with colostrum from cows on dry-off therapy was not a risk factor [OR 1.7 (95% CI 0.7–4.9, P = 0.28)].

Conclusions

The presence of ESBL/AmpC could only be partly explained by AMU. No link was shown between shedding in cattle and humans or the environment. Interventions should focus on prevention of introduction.

Effect of donor-recipient relatedness on the plasmid conjugation frequency: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Conjugation plays a major role in the transmission of plasmids encoding antibiotic resistance genes in both clinical and general settings. The conjugation efficiency is influenced by many biotic and abiotic factors, one of which is the taxonomic relatedness between donor and recipient bacteria. A comprehensive overview of the influence of donor-recipient relatedness on conjugation is still lacking, but such an overview is important to quantitatively assess the risk of plasmid transfer and the effect of interventions which limit the spread of antibiotic resistance, and to obtain parameter values for conjugation in mathematical models. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis on reported conjugation frequencies from Escherichia coli donors to various recipient species.

RESULTS

Thirty-two studies reporting 313 conjugation frequencies for liquid broth matings and 270 conjugation frequencies for filter matings were included in our meta-analysis. The reported conjugation frequencies varied over 11 orders of magnitude. Decreasing taxonomic relatedness between donor and recipient bacteria, when adjusted for confounding factors, was associated with a lower conjugation frequency in liquid matings. The mean conjugation frequency for bacteria of the same order, the same class, and other classes was 10, 20, and 789 times lower than the mean conjugation frequency within the same species, respectively. This association between relatedness and conjugation frequency was not found for filter matings. The conjugation frequency was furthermore found to be influenced by temperature in both types of mating experiments, and in addition by plasmid incompatibility group in liquid matings, and by recipient origin and mating time in filter matings.

CONCLUSIONS

In our meta-analysis, taxonomic relatedness is limiting conjugation in liquid matings, but not in filter matings, suggesting that taxonomic relatedness is not a limiting factor for conjugation in environments where bacteria are fixed in space.

Early life supply of competitive exclusion products reduces colonization of extended spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli in broilers

Broilers are an important reservoir of extended spectrum beta-lactamase and AmpC beta-lactamase (ESBL/pAmpC)-producing bacteria. In previous studies, a single supply of a competitive exclusion (CE) product before challenge with a high dose of ESBL/pAmpC-producing Escherichia coli led to reduced colonization, excretion, and transmission, but could not prevent colonization. The hypothesized mechanism is competition; therefore, in this study the effect of a prolonged supply of CE products on colonization, excretion, and transmission of ESBL-producing E. coli after challenge with a low dose at day 0 or day 5 was investigated. Day-old broilers (Ross 308) (n = 220) were housed in isolators. Two CE products, containing unselected fermented intestinal bacteria (CEP) or a selection of pre- and probiotics (SYN), were supplied in drinking water from day 0 to 14. At day 0 or 5, broilers were challenged with 0.5 mL with 10¹ or 10² cfu/mL E. coli encoding the beta-lactamase gene bla_CTX-M-1 on an IncI plasmid (CTX-M-1-E. coli). Presence and concentration of CTX-M-1-E. coli were determined using cloacal swabs (days 0–14, 16, 19, and 21) and cecal content (day 21). Cox proportional hazard model and a mixed linear regression model were used to determine the effect of the intervention on colonization and excretion (log₁₀ cfu/g). When challenged on the day of hatch, no effect of CEP was observed. When challenged at day 5, both CEP and SYN led to a prevention of colonization with CTX-M-1-E. coli in some isolators. In the remaining isolators, we observed reduced time until colonization (hazard ratio between 3.71 × 10⁻³ and 3.11), excretion (up to −1.60 log₁₀ cfu/g), and cecal content (up to −2.80 log₁₀ cfu/g), and a 1.5 to 3-fold reduction in transmission rate. Colonization after a low-dose challenge with ESBL-producing E. coli can be prevented by CE products. However, if at least 1 bird is colonized it spreads through the whole flock. Prolonged supply of CE products, provided shortly after hatch, may be applicable as an intervention to reduce the prevalence of ESBL/pAmpC-producing bacteria in the broiler production chain.

Comparison of Different Invasive and Non-Invasive Methods to Characterize Intestinal Microbiota throughout a Production Cycle of Broiler Chickens

In the short life of broiler chickens, their intestinal microbiota undergoes many changes. To study underlying biological mechanisms and factors that influence the intestinal microbiota development, longitudinal data from flocks and individual birds is needed. However, post-mortem collection of samples hampers longitudinal data collection. In this study, invasively collected cecal and ileal content, cloacal swabs collected from the same bird, and boot sock samples and cecal droppings from the litter of the broilers' poultry house, were collected on days 0, 2, 7, 14 and 35 post-hatch. The different sample types were evaluated on their applicability and reliability to characterize the broiler intestinal microbiota. The microbiota of 247 samples was assessed by 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicon sequencing. Analyses of α and β measures showed a similar development of microbiota composition of cecal droppings compared to cecal content. Furthermore, the composition of cecal content samples was comparable to that of the boot socks until day 14 post-hatch. This study shows that the value of non-invasive sample types varies at different ages and depends on the goal of the microbiota characterization. Specifically, cecal droppings and boot socks may be useful alternatives for cecal samples to determine intestinal microbiota composition longitudinally.

Take care of the environment: housing conditions affect the interplay of nutritional interventions and intestinal microbiota in broiler chickens

Background

The intestinal microbiota is shaped by many interactions between microorganisms, host, diet, and the environment. Exposure to microorganisms present in the environment, and exchange of microorganisms between hosts sharing the same environment, can influence intestinal microbiota of individuals, but how this affects microbiota studies is poorly understood. We investigated the effects of experimental housing circumstances on intestinal microbiota composition in broiler chickens, and how these effects may influence the capacity to determine diet related effects in a nutrition experiment. A cross-sectional experiment was conducted simultaneously in a feed research facility with mesh panels between pens (Housing condition 1, H1), in an extensively cleaned stable with floor pens with solid wooden panels (H2), and in isolators (H3). In H1 and H2 different distances between pens were created to assess gut microbiota exchange between pens. Feed with and without a blend of medium-chain fatty acids (MCFA) was used to create differences in cecal microbiota between pens or isolators within the same housing condition. Male one-day-old Ross broiler chickens (n = 370) were randomly distributed across H1, H2, and H3. After 35 days cecal microbiota composition was assessed by 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicon sequencing. Metabolic functioning of cecal content was assessed based on high-performance liquid chromatography.

Results

Microbial alpha diversity was not affected in broilers fed +MCFA in H1 but was increased in H2 and H3. Based on weighted UniFrac distances, the nutritional intervention explained 10%, whereas housing condition explained 28% of cecal microbiota variation between all broilers. The effect size of the nutritional intervention varied within housing conditions between 11, 27, and 13% for H1, H2, and H3. Furthermore, performance and metabolic output were significantly different between housing conditions. The distance between pens within H1 and H2 did not influence the percentage of shared genera or operational taxonomic units (OTUs).

Conclusions

The cecal microbiota of broilers was modifiable by a nutritional intervention, but the housing condition affected microbiota composition and functionality stronger than the diet intervention. Consequently, for interpretation of intestinal microbiota studies in poultry it is essential to be aware of the potentially large impact of housing conditions on the obtained results.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s42523-019-0009-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Transmission routes of ESBL/pAmpC producing bacteria in the broiler production pyramid, a literature review

Plasmid mediated Extended Spectrum Beta-Lactamase and AmpC Beta-Lactamase (ESBL/pAmpC) producing bacteria are resistant to beta-lactam antimicrobials and are widespread in humans, the environment and animals. Animals, especially broilers, are an important reservoir of ESBL/pAmpC producing bacteria. To control ESBL/pAmpC prevalence in broilers, transmission within the entire broiler production pyramid should be considered. This study, including 103 articles originating from two electronic databases, searched for evidence for possible routes of transmission of ESBL/pAmpC producing bacteria in the broiler production pyramid. Possible routes of transmission were categorised as 1) vertical between generations, 2) at hatcheries, 3) horizontal on farm, and 4) horizontal between farms and via the environment of farms. This review presents indications for transmission of ESBL/pAmpC producing bacteria for each of these routes. However, the lack of quantitative results in the literature did not allow an estimation of the relative contribution or magnitude of the different routes. Future research should be specifically targeted towards such information as it is crucial to guide reduction strategies for the spread of ESBL/pAmpC producing bacteria in the broiler production chain.

Host and Environmental Factors Affecting the Intestinal Microbiota in Chickens

The initial development of intestinal microbiota in poultry plays an important role in production performance, overall health and resistance against microbial infections. Multiplexed sequencing of 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicons is often used in studies, such as feed intervention or antimicrobial drug trials, to determine corresponding effects on the composition of intestinal microbiota. However, considerable variation of intestinal microbiota composition has been observed both within and across studies. Such variation may in part be attributed to technical factors, such as sampling procedures, sample storage, DNA extraction, the choice of PCR primers and corresponding region to be sequenced, and the sequencing platforms used. Furthermore, part of this variation in microbiota composition may also be explained by different host characteristics and environmental factors. To facilitate the improvement of design, reproducibility and interpretation of poultry microbiota studies, we have reviewed the literature on confounding factors influencing the observed intestinal microbiota in chickens. First, it has been identified that host-related factors, such as age, sex, and breed, have a large effect on intestinal microbiota. The diversity of chicken intestinal microbiota tends to increase most during the first weeks of life, and corresponding colonization patterns seem to differ between layer- and meat-type chickens. Second, it has been found that environmental factors, such as biosecurity level, housing, litter, feed access and climate also have an effect on the composition of the intestinal microbiota. As microbiota studies have to deal with many of these unknown or hidden host and environmental variables, the choice of study designs can have a great impact on study outcomes and interpretation of the data. Providing details on a broad range of host and environmental factors in articles and sequence data repositories is highly recommended. This creates opportunities to combine data from different studies for meta-analysis, which will facilitate scientific breakthroughs toward nutritional and husbandry associated strategies to improve animal health and performance.

Comparative Risk Analysis of Two Culicoides-Borne Diseases in Horses: Equine Encephalosis More Likely to Enter France than African Horse Sickness

African horse sickness (AHS) and equine encephalosis (EE) are Culicoides-borne viral diseases that could have the potential to spread across Europe if introduced, thus being potential threats for the European equine industry. Both share similar epidemiology, transmission patterns and geographical distribution. Using stochastic spatiotemporal models of virus entry, we assessed and compared the probabilities of both viruses entering France via two pathways: importation of live-infected animals or importation of infected vectors. Analyses were performed for three consecutive years (2010-2012). Seasonal and regional differences in virus entry probabilities were the same for both diseases. However, the probability of EE entry was much higher than the probability of AHS entry. Interestingly, the most likely entry route differed between AHS and EE: AHS has a higher probability to enter through an infected vector and EE has a higher probability to enter through an infectious host. Consequently, different effective protective measures were identified by 'what-if' scenarios for the two diseases. The implementation of vector protection on all animals (equine and bovine) coming from low-risk regions before their importation was the most effective in reducing the probability of AHS entry. On the other hand, the most significant reduction in the probability of EE entry was obtained by the implementation of quarantine before import for horses coming from both EU and non-EU countries. The developed models can be useful to implement risk-based surveillance.

A spatiotemporal model to assess the introduction risk of African horse sickness by import of animals and vectors in France

Background

African horse sickness (AHS) is a major, Culicoides-borne viral disease in equines whose introduction into Europe could have dramatic consequences. The disease is considered to be endemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Recent introductions of other Culicoides-borne viruses (bluetongue and Schmallenberg) into northern Europe have highlighted the risk that AHS may arrive in Europe as well. The aim of our study was to provide a spatiotemporal quantitative risk model of AHS introduction into France. The study focused on two pathways of introduction: the arrival of an infectious host (PW-host) and the arrival of an infectious Culicoides midge via the livestock trade (PW-vector). The risk of introduction was calculated by determining the probability of an infectious animal or vector entering the country and the probability of the virus then becoming established: i.e., the virus’s arrival in France resulting in at least one local equine host being infected by one local vector. This risk was assessed using data from three consecutive years (2010 to 2012) for 22 regions in France.

Results

The results of the model indicate that the annual risk of AHS being introduced to France is very low but that major spatiotemporal differences exist. For both introduction pathways, risk is higher from July to October and peaks in July. In general, regions with warmer climates are more at risk, as are colder regions with larger equine populations; however, regional variation in animal importation patterns (number and species) also play a major role in determining risk. Despite the low probability that AHSV is present in the EU, intra-EU trade of equines contributes most to the risk of AHSV introduction to France because it involves a large number of horse movements.

Conclusion

It is important to address spatiotemporal differences when assessing the risk of ASH introduction and thus also when implementing efficient surveillance efforts. The methods and results of this study may help develop surveillance techniques and other risk reduction measures that will prevent the introduction of AHS or minimize AHS’ potential impact once introduced, both in France and the rest of Europe.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12917-015-0435-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The IncI1 plasmid carrying the blaCTX-M-1 gene persists in in vitro culture of a Escherichia coli strain from broilers

BACKGROUND

Commensal bacteria are a reservoir for antimicrobial-resistance genes. In the Netherlands, bacteria producing Extended Spectrum Beta-Lactamases (ESBL) are found on chicken-meat and in the gut of broilers at a high prevalence and the predominant ESBL-gene is the bla(CTX-M-1) located on IncI1 plasmids. We aim to determine the fitness costs of this plasmid for the bacterium.We investigated the conjugation dynamics of IncI1 plasmids carrying the bla(CTX-M-1) gene in a batch culture and its impact on the population dynamics of three E. coli populations: donors, recipients and transconjugants. The intrinsic growth rate (ψ), maximum density (K) and lag-phase (λ) of the populations were estimated as well as the conjugation coefficient. Loss of the plasmid by transconjugants was either assumed constant or depended on the effective growth rate of the transconjugants.Parameters were estimated from experiments with pure culture of donors, recipients and transconjugants and with mixed culture of donors and recipients with a duration of 24 or 48 hours. Extrapolation of the results was compared to a 3-months experiment in which a mixed culture of recipient and transconjugant was regularly diluted in new medium.

RESULTS

No differences in estimated growth parameters (ψ, K or λ) were found between donor, recipient and transconjugant, and plasmid loss was not observed. The conjugation coefficient of transconjugants was 104 times larger than that of the donor. In the 3-months experiment, the proportion of transconjugants did not decrease, indicating no or very small fitness costs.

CONCLUSIONS

In vitro the IncI1 plasmid carrying the blaCTX-M-1 gene imposes no or negligible fitness costs on its E. coli host, and persists without antimicrobial usage.

Derivation of a Floquet formalism within a natural framework

Many biological systems experience a periodic environment. Floquet theory is a mathematical tool to deal with such time periodic systems. It is not often applied in biology, because linkage between the mathematics and the biology is not available. To create this linkage, we derive the Floquet theory for natural systems. We construct a framework, where the rotation of the Earth is causing the periodicity. Within this framework the angular momentum operator is introduced to describe the Earth’s rotation. The Fourier operators and the Fourier states are defined to link the rotation to the biological system. Using these operators, the biological system can be transformed into a rotating frame in which the environment becomes static. In this rotating frame the Floquet solution can be derived. Two examples demonstrate how to apply this natural framework.

The long-term effect of current and new interventions on the new case detection of leprosy: a modeling study

Background

Although the number of newly detected leprosy cases has decreased globally, a quarter of a million new cases are detected annually and eradication remains far away. Current options for leprosy prevention are contact tracing and BCG vaccination of infants. Future options may include chemoprophylaxis and early diagnosis of subclinical infections. This study compared the predicted trends in leprosy case detection of future intervention strategies.

Methods

Seven leprosy intervention scenarios were investigated with a microsimulation model (SIMCOLEP) to predict future leprosy trends. The baseline scenario consisted of passive case detection, multidrug therapy, contact tracing, and BCG vaccination of infants. The other six scenarios were modifications of the baseline, as follows: no contact tracing; with chemoprophylaxis; with early diagnosis of subclinical infections; replacement of the BCG vaccine with a new tuberculosis vaccine ineffective against Mycobacterium leprae (“no BCG”); no BCG with chemoprophylaxis; and no BCG with early diagnosis.

Findings

Without contact tracing, the model predicted an initial drop in the new case detection rate due to a delay in detecting clinical cases among contacts. Eventually, this scenario would lead to new case detection rates higher than the baseline program. Both chemoprophylaxis and early diagnosis would prevent new cases due to a reduction of the infectious period of subclinical cases by detection and cure of these cases. Also, replacing BCG would increase the new case detection rate of leprosy, but this effect could be offset with either chemoprophylaxis or early diagnosis.

Conclusions

This study showed that the leprosy incidence would be reduced substantially by good BCG vaccine coverage and the combined strategies of contact tracing, early diagnosis, and treatment of infection and/or chemoprophylaxis among household contacts. To effectively interrupt the transmission of M. leprae, it is crucial to continue developing immuno- and chemoprophylaxis strategies and an effective test for diagnosing subclinical infections.

Leprosy is a contagious disease that will remain prevalent, despite the declining number of patients worldwide over the last century. With approximately 250,000 new cases detected annually, leprosy is far from being eradicated. Leprosy can be treated with drugs after disease detection.

Some cases can be prevented with a tuberculosis vaccine (BCG) that cross-reacts with the bacterium responsible for leprosy, but this vaccine might be replaced in the future. Furthermore, preventive drugs can reduce the number of new cases among people in contact with infectious patients, but this strategy has not yet become established in common practice. Also, a new test is under development for the detection of infections before the appearance of symptoms.

In this study, we used a computer model to assess the effectiveness of seven possible leprosy control activities. Our results showed that the decline in incidence of leprosy would slow down or halt with the introduction of a new tuberculosis vaccine that is ineffective against leprosy. However, this effect could be offset by the implementation of effective tests for early diagnosis or the routine administration of preventative drugs to contacts of patients.

Dynamics of shiga-toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC) and their virulence factors in cattle

Starting at birth, twenty Holstein calves were housed individually, in groups of five and finally in one large freestall while fecal samples were collected weekly for 25 weeks. From each sample, twenty isolates of Escherichia coli were screened for 6 virulence markers including shiga-toxin 1, 2, intimin, enterohemolysin, the fimbrial antigen efa1 and the adhesin saa. Dynamic models of transmission of E. coli were used to model the transmission of different virulotypes between calves and the loss of the same virulotypes from the calves. It was found that, once E. coli encoding shiga-toxins in combination with enterohemolysin were transmitted and established in a calf, they tended to be eliminated less efficiently compared to E. coli without this combination of virulence markers. It was concluded that the presence of certain combinations of virulence markers coincided with persistence of E. coli in the bovine gastrointestinal tract. In addition, the combinations of stx with either eae or ehxA in E. coli have a greater impact on the loss rates than on the transmission rates.

The spatial distribution of leprosy cases during 15 years of a leprosy control program in Bangladesh: an observational study

BACKGROUND

An uneven spatial distribution of leprosy can be caused by the influence of geography on the distribution of risk factors over the area, or by population characteristics that are heterogeneously distributed over the area. We studied the distribution of leprosy cases detected by a control program to identify spatial and spatio-temporal patterns of occurrence and to search for environmental risk factors for leprosy.

METHODS

The houses of 11,060 leprosy cases registered in the control area during a 15-year period (1989-2003) were traced back, added to a geographic database (GIS), and plotted on digital maps. We looked for clusters of cases in space and time. Furthermore, relationships with the proximity to geographic features, such as town center, roads, rivers, and clinics, were studied.

RESULTS

Several spatio-temporal clusters were observed for voluntarily reported cases. The cases within and outside clusters did not differ in age at detection, percentage with multibacillary leprosy, or sex ratio. There was no indication of the spread from one point to other parts of the district, indicating a spatially stable endemic situation during the study period. The overall risk of leprosy in the district was not associated with roads, rivers, and leprosy clinics. The risk was highest within 1 kilometer of town centers and decreased with distance from town centers.

CONCLUSION

The association of a risk of leprosy with the proximity to towns indicates that rural towns may play an important role in the epidemiology of leprosy in this district. Further research on the role of towns, particularly in rural areas, is warranted.

MUSIDH, multiple use of simulated demographic histories, a novel method to reduce computation time in microsimulation models of infectious diseases

Microsimulation of infectious diseases requires simulation of many life histories of interacting individuals. In particular, relatively rare infections such as leprosy need to be studied in very large populations. Computation time increases disproportionally with the size of the simulated population. We present a novel method, MUSIDH, an acronym for multiple use of simulated demographic histories, to reduce computation time. Demographic history refers to the processes of birth, death and all other demographic events that should be unrelated to the natural course of an infection, thus non-fatal infections. MUSIDH attaches a fixed number of infection histories to each demographic history, and these infection histories interact as if being the infection history of separate individuals. With two examples, mumps and leprosy, we show that the method can give a factor 50 reduction in computation time at the cost of a small loss in precision. The largest reductions are obtained for rare infections with complex demographic histories.

Stochastic efficiency analysis of bovine tuberculosis-surveillance programs in the Netherlands

We constructed a stochastic bio-economic model to determine the optimal cost-efficient surveillance program for bovine tuberculosis. The surveillance programs differed in combinations of one or more detection methods and/or sampling frequency. Stochastic input variables in the epidemiological module described the dynamics of infection and the probability of detection. By means of an efficiency frontier, the trade-off between the expected cost and the epidemiological risk parameter relating to the outbreak size was evaluated. The surveillance scheme based on visual inspection of lesions on carcasses at slaughter was optimal given the current prevalence of the disease in the Netherlands if the objective was to minimise the expected costs. However, the efficient set also included two other schemes: slaughterhouse inspection in combination with GAMMA-interferon testing of blood samples and slaughterhouse inspection in combination with two-stage tuberculin testing. The choice ultimately will depend on the risk attitude of the decision-maker; a more-stringent surveillance scheme will be enforced if the expected outbreak size is to be constrained. In future scenarios, ELISA testing of bulk-tank milk in combination with the current slaughterhouse inspection procedure would outperform the surveillance scheme of solely slaughterhouse inspection if ELISA testing of bulk-tank milk becomes feasible.

Evaluation of surveillance strategies for bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) using an individual based epidemiological model

The Netherlands holds the bovine tuberculosis-free (BTB-free) status according to European Union standards, but in recent years small outbreaks of the infection have occurred. After the last outbreak in 1999 with 10 infected herds the question raised if the current surveillance system, visual inspection of carcasses at the slaughterhouse, is efficient enough to detect infected cattle in time and to maintain the official BTB-free status. Through epidemiological modelling, the risk of a major outbreak is quantified, using one of six surveillance strategies. These are the currently used visual inspection of carcasses at the slaughterhouse (SL), the ELISA test on blood samples of carcasses at the slaughterhouse (ELISA-B), the gamma-interferon test on blood samples of carcasses at the slaughterhouse (GAMMA-B), comparative tuberculination of the herd (CT), the combined method of single and comparative tuberculination of the herd (ST+CT) and the ELISA test on samples of bulk milk (ELISA-M). Test frequency of the last three methods was varied as well. A stochastic individual based model (IBM) was developed to simulate a chain of infected herds, where each individual animal is followed in time. The model mimics the nation-wide situation after the introduction of one infected animal into one herd. BTB-transmission is simulated with an S-E(1)-E(2)-I state transition model. Output is time until detection of the infection, prevalence in the detected herd and the number of infected herds at the time of detection. For the assessment 500 simulations were used, representing 500 BTB-introductions. Model robustness to parameter values was analysed with Monte Carlo elasticity analysis, for which 1000 simulations were used. Results of median time until detection and median number of infected farms at detection for SL (302 weeks and seven farms) were in agreement with estimates from an outbreak in the Netherlands in 1999. ELISA-B and GAMMA-B performed better than SL with a much lower median time until detection (189 and 97 weeks, respectively). The results for the tuberculination methods (ST+CT and CT) and ELISA-M depended heavily on the frequency in which the tests were performed. The tuberculination methods ST+CT and CT yield comparable results and detect the infection sooner than SL, also at the lowest tested frequency of once in 5 years. ELISA-M is comparable with SL at frequencies of once in 4 or 5 years, and this test works well at frequencies of once a year or higher. Our study results are used for an economical optimisation analysis of the six surveillance strategies.