Avian influenza overview November 2019- February2020

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5 Clade 2.3.4.4b Virus Infection in Birds and Mammals

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are highly contagious respiratory viruses of birds, leading to significant morbidity and mortality globally and causing substantial economic losses to the poultry industry and agriculture. Since their first isolation in 2013-2014, the Asian-origin H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAI) of clade 2.3.4.4b have undergone unprecedented evolution and reassortment of internal gene segments. In just a few years, it supplanted other AIV clades, and now it is widespread in the wild migratory waterfowl, spreading to Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Americas. Wild waterfowl, the natural reservoir of LPAIVs and generally more resistant to the disease, also manifested high morbidity and mortality with HPAIV clade 2.3.4.4b. This clade also caused overt clinical signs and mass mortality in a variety of avian and mammalian species never reported before, such as raptors, seabirds, sealions, foxes, and others. Most notably, the recent outbreaks in dairy cattle were associated with the emergence of a few critical mutations related to mammalian adaptation, raising concerns about the possibility of jumping species and acquisition of sustained human-to-human transmission. The main clinical signs and anatomopathological findings associated with clade 2.3.4.4b virus infection in birds and non-human mammals are hereby summarized.

Spatiotemporal genotype replacement of H5N8 avian influenza viruses contributed to H5N1 emergence in 2021/2022 panzootic

Since 2020, clade 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 and H5N1 viruses have swept through continents, posing serious threats to the world. Through comprehensive analyses of epidemiological, genetic, and bird migration data, we found that the dominant genotype replacement of the H5N8 viruses in 2020 contributed to the H5N1 outbreak in the 2021/2022 wave. The 2020 outbreak of the H5N8 G1 genotype instead of the G0 genotype produced reassortment opportunities and led to the emergence of a new H5N1 virus with G1's HA and MP genes. Despite extensive reassortments in the 2021/2022 wave, the H5N1 virus retained the HA and MP genes, causing a significant outbreak in Europe and North America. Furtherly, through the wild bird migration flyways investigation, we found that the temporal-spatial coincidence between the outbreak of the H5N8 G1 virus and the bird autumn migration may have expanded the H5 viral spread, which may be one of the main drivers of the emergence of the 2020-2022 H5 panzootic.IMPORTANCESince 2020, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 subtype variants of clade 2.3.4.4b have spread across continents, posing unprecedented threats globally. However, the factors promoting the genesis and spread of H5 HPAI viruses remain unclear. Here, we found that the spatiotemporal genotype replacement of H5N8 HPAI viruses contributed to the emergence of the H5N1 variant that caused the 2021/2022 panzootic, and the viral evolution in poultry of Egypt and surrounding area and autumn bird migration from the Russia-Kazakhstan region to Europe are important drivers of the emergence of the 2020-2022 H5 panzootic. These findings provide important targets for early warning and could help control the current and future HPAI epidemics.

Avian influenza H5N1 in a great white pelican (Pelecanus onocrotalus), Mauritania 2022

In February 2022, mortalities among great white pelicans (Pelecanus onocrotalus) were reported in the Parc National de Diawling, southwestern Mauritania. Samples were collected and processed, indicating the presence of high pathogenicity avian influenza subtype H5N1. A nearly complete genome was generated for one sample, revealing a high similarity [> 99.5% (H5) nucleotide sequence identity] with Clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 identified in Europe in 2022.

Protective efficacy of a bivalent H5 influenza vaccine candidate against both clades 2.3.2.1 and 2.3.4.4 high pathogenic avian influenza viruses in SPF chickens

Worldwide, high pathogenic avian influenza viruses belonging to clades 2.3.4.4 and 2.3.2.1 have been circulating in both poultry and wild birds. Since 2018, Korea has built a national antigen bank to ensure preparedness in an emergency. In this study, we developed a bivalent vaccine candidate containing antigens derived from two reassortant KA435/2.3.2.1d and H35/2.3.4.4b strains for Korean national antigen bank. We evaluated its immunogenicity and protective efficacy in specific pathogen free chickens. The two vaccine strains, rgKA435-H9N2 PB2/2.3.2.1d and rgH35/2.3.4.4b, both of which were generated successfully by reverse genetics, were highly immunogenic (titres of haemagglutination inhibition: 8.3 and 8.4 log₂, respectively) and showed good protective efficacy (100 and 147 50% protective dose, respectively) against lethal challenge with wild-type virus when delivered as a 1:1 mixture. Notably, the vaccine provided complete protection against viral shedding at a full dose (512 HAU) and a 1/10 dose (51.2 HAU), with no clinical signs, after challenge with H35/2.3.4.4b. The bivalent vaccine developed in this study may reduce the cost of vaccine production and could be used as a H5 subtype avian influenza vaccine candidate against two clades simultaneously.

Bidirectional Movement of Emerging H5N8 Avian Influenza Viruses Between Europe and Asia via Migratory Birds Since Early 2020

Migratory birds play a critical role in the rapid spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N8 virus clade 2.3.4.4 across Eurasia. Elucidating the timing and pattern of virus transmission is essential therefore for understanding the spatial dissemination of these viruses. In this study, we surveyed >27,000 wild birds in China, tracked the year-round migration patterns of 20 bird species across China since 2006, and generated new HPAI H5N8 virus genomic data. Using this new data set, we investigated the seasonal transmission dynamics of HPAI H5N8 viruses across Eurasia. We found that introductions of HPAI H5N8 viruses to different Eurasian regions were associated with the seasonal migration of wild birds. Moreover, we report a backflow of HPAI H5N8 virus lineages from Europe to Asia, suggesting that Europe acts as both a source and a sink in the global HPAI virus transmission network.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5Nx in Poland in 2020/2021: a Descriptive Epidemiological Study of a Large-scale Epidemic

Introduction

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks caused by the Gs/Gd lineage of H5Nx viruses occur in Poland with increased frequency. The article provides an update on the HPAI situation in the 2020/2021 season and studies the possible factors that caused the exceptionally fast spread of the virus.

Material and Methods

Samples from poultry and wild birds delivered for HPAI diagnosis were tested by real-time RT-PCR and a representative number of detected viruses were submitted for partial or full-genome characterisation. Information yielded by veterinary inspection was used for descriptive analysis of the epidemiological situation.

Results

The scale of the epidemic in the 2020/2021 season was unprecedented in terms of duration (November 2020-August 2021), number of outbreaks in poultry (n = 357), wild bird events (n = 92) and total number of affected domestic birds (approximately ~14 million). The major drivers of the virus spread were the harsh winter conditions in February 2020 followed by the introduction of the virus to high-density poultry areas in March 2021. All tested viruses belonged to H5 clade 2.3.4.4b with significant intra-clade diversity and in some cases clearly distinguished clusters.

Conclusion

The HPAI epidemic in 2020/2021 in Poland struck with unprecedented force. The conventional control measures may have limited effectiveness to break the transmission chain in areas with high concentrations of poultry.

Avian influenza overview February - May 2021

The 2020-2021 epidemic with a total of 3,555 reported HPAI detections and around 22,400,000 affected poultry birds in 28 European Countries appears to be one of the largest and most devastating HPAI epidemics ever occurred in Europe. Between 24 February and 14 May 2021, 1,672 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus detections were reported in 24 EU/EEA countries and the UK in poultry (n=580), and in wild (n=1,051) and captive birds (n=41). The majority of the detections in poultry were reported by Poland that accounted for 297 outbreaks occurring in a densely populated poultry area over a short period of time, followed by Germany with 168 outbreaks. Germany accounted for 603 detections in wild birds, followed by Denmark and Poland with 167 and 56 detections, respectively. A second peak of HPAI-associated wild bird mortality was observed from February to April 2021 in north-west Europe. The observed longer persistence of HPAI in wild birds compared to previous years may result in a continuation of the risk for juveniles of wild birds and mammals, as well as for virus entry into poultry farms. Therefore, enhanced awareness among farmers to continue applying stringent biosecurity measures and to monitor and report increases in daily mortality and drops in production parameters, are recommended. Sixteen different genotypes were identified to date in Europe and Russia, suggesting a high propensity of these viruses to reassort. The viruses characterized to date retain a preference for avian-type receptors; however, transmission events to mammals and the identification of sporadic mutations of mammal adaptation, indicate ongoing evolution processes and possible increased ability of viruses within this clade to further adapt and transmit to mammals including humans. Since the last report, two human infections due to A(H5N6) HPAI were reported from China and Laos and 10 human cases due to A(H9N2) low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus identified in China and Cambodia. The risk of infection for the general population in the EU/EEA is assessed as very low and for occupationally exposed people low. People exposed during avian influenza outbreaks should adhere to protection measures, strictly wear personal protective equipment and get tested immediately when developing respiratory symptoms or conjunctivitis within 10 days after exposure.

Avian influenza overview September - December 2021

Between 16 September and 8 December 2021, 867 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus detections were reported in 27 EU/EEA countries and the UK in poultry (316), in wild (523) and in captive birds (28). The detections in poultry were mainly reported by Italy (167) followed by Hungary and Poland (35 each). Tha majority of the detections in wild birds were reported by Germany (280), Netherlands (65) and United Kingdom (53). The observed persistence and continuous circulation of HPAI viruses in migratory and resident wild birds will continue to pose a risk for the poultry industry in Europe for the coming months. The frequent occurrence of HPAI A(H5) incursions in commercial farms (including poultry production types considered at low avian influenza risk) raises concern about the capacity of the applied biosecurity measures to prevent virus introduction. Short-term preparedness and medium- and long-term prevention strategies, including revising and reinforcing biosecurity measures, reduction of the density of commercial poultry farms and possible appropriate vaccination strategies, should be implemented. The results of the genetic analysis indicate that the viruses characterised during this reporting period belong to clade 2.3.4.4b. Some of the characterized HPAI A(H5N1) viruses detected in Sweden, Germany, Poland and United Kingdom are related to the viruses which have been circulating in Europe since October 2020; in North, Central, South and East Europe novel reassortant A(H5N1) virus has been introduced starting from October 2021. HPAI A(H5N1) was also detected in wild mammal species in Sweden, Estonia and Finland; some of these strains characterised so far present an adaptive marker that is associated with increased virulence and replication in mammals. Since the last report, 13 human infections due to HPAI A(H5N6) and two human cases due to LPAI A(H9N2) virus have been reported from China. Some of these A(H5N6) cases were caused by a reassortant virus of clade 2.3.4.4b, which possessed an HA gene closely related to the A(H5) viruses circulating in Europe. The risk of infection for the general population in the EU/EEA is assessed as low, and for occupationally exposed people, low to medium, with large uncertainty due to the high diversity of circulating viruses in the bird populations.

Evolutionary Dynamics of H5 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses (Clade 2.3.4.4B) Circulating in Bulgaria in 2019-2021

The first detection of a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N8 virus in Bulgaria dates back to December 2016. Since then, many outbreaks caused by HPAI H5 viruses from clade 2.3.4.4B have been reported in both domestic and wild birds in different regions of the country. In this study, we characterized the complete genome of sixteen H5 viruses collected in Bulgaria between 2019 and 2021. Phylogenetic analyses revealed a persistent circulation of the H5N8 strain for four consecutive years (December 2016–June 2020) and the emergence in 2020 of a novel reassortant H5N2 subtype, likely in a duck farm. Estimation of the time to the most recent common ancestor indicates that this reassortment event may have occurred between May 2019 and January 2020. At the beginning of 2021, Bulgaria experienced a new virus introduction in the poultry sector, namely a HPAI H5N8 that had been circulating in Europe since October 2020. The periodical identification in domestic birds of H5 viruses related to the 2016 epidemic as well as a reassortant strain might indicate undetected circulation of the virus in resident wild birds or in the poultry sector. To avoid the concealed circulation and evolution of viruses, and the risk of emergence of strains with pandemic potential, the implementation of control measures is of utmost importance, particularly in duck farms where birds display no clinical signs.

Microbial aspects and potential markers for differentiation between bacterial and viral meningitis among adult patients

OBJECTIVES

Meningitis is a medical emergency with permanent disabilities and high mortality worldwide. We aimed to determine causative microorganisms and potential markers for differentiation between bacterial and viral meningitis.

METHODOLOGY

Adult patients with acute meningitis were subjected to lumber puncture. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) microorganisms were identified using Real-time PCR. PCT and CRP levels, peripheral and CSF-leucocyte count, CSF-protein and CSF-glucose levels were assessed.

RESULTS

Out of 80 patients, infectious meningitis was confirmed in 75 cases; 38 cases were bacterial meningitis, 34 cases were viral meningitis and three cases were mixed infection. Higher PCT, peripheral and CSF-leukocytosis, higher CSF-protein and lower CSF-glucose levels were more significant in bacterial than viral meningitis patients. Neisseria meningitides was the most frequent bacteria and varicella-zoster virus was the most common virus. Using ROC analyses, serum PCT and CSF-parameters can discriminate bacterial from viral meningitis. Combined ROC analyses of PCT and CSF-protein significantly improved the effectiveness in predicting bacterial meningitis (AUC of 0.998, 100%sensitivity and 97.1%specificity) than each parameter alone (AUC of 0.951 for PCT and 0.996 for CSF-protein).

CONCLUSION

CSF-protein and serum PCT are considered as potential markers for differentiating bacterial from viral meningitis and their combination improved their predictive accuracy to bacterial meningitis.

Molecular Characterization of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses H5N6 Detected in Denmark in 2018-2019

Beginning in late 2017, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N6 viruses caused outbreaks in wild birds and poultry in several European countries. H5N6 viruses were detected in 43 wild birds found dead throughout Denmark. Most of the Danish virus-positive dead birds were found in the period from February to April 2018. However, unlike the rest of Europe, sporadic HPAI H5N6-positive dead wild birds were detected in Denmark in July, August, September, and December 2018, with the last positive bird being found in January 2019. HPAI viruses were not detected in active surveillance of apparently healthy wild birds. In this study, we use full genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis to investigate the wild bird HPAI H5N6 viruses found in Denmark. The Danish viruses were found to be closely related to those of contemporary HPAI H5N6 viruses detected in Europe. Their sequences formed two clusters indicating that at least two or more introductions of H5N6 into Denmark occurred. Notably, all viruses detected in the latter half of 2018 and in 2019 grouped into the same cluster. The H5N6 viruses appeared to have been maintained undetected in the autumn 2018.

Avian Influenza in Wild Birds and Poultry: Dissemination Pathways, Monitoring Methods, and Virus Ecology

Avian influenza is one of the largest known threats to domestic poultry. Influenza outbreaks on poultry farms typically lead to the complete slaughter of the entire domestic bird population, causing severe economic losses worldwide. Moreover, there are highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strains that are able to infect the swine or human population in addition to their primary avian host and, as such, have the potential of being a global zoonotic and pandemic threat. Migratory birds, especially waterfowl, are a natural reservoir of the avian influenza virus; they carry and exchange different virus strains along their migration routes, leading to antigenic drift and antigenic shift, which results in the emergence of novel HPAI viruses. This requires monitoring over time and in different locations to allow for the upkeep of relevant knowledge on avian influenza virus evolution and the prevention of novel epizootic and epidemic outbreaks. In this review, we assess the role of migratory birds in the spread and introduction of influenza strains on a global level, based on recent data. Our analysis sheds light on the details of viral dissemination linked to avian migration, the viral exchange between migratory waterfowl and domestic poultry, virus ecology in general, and viral evolution as a process tightly linked to bird migration. We also provide insight into methods used to detect and quantify avian influenza in the wild. This review may be beneficial for the influenza research community and may pave the way to novel strategies of avian influenza and HPAI zoonosis outbreak monitoring and prevention.

Avian influenza overview December 2020 - February 2021

Between 8 December 2020 and 23 February 2021, 1,022 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus detectionswere reported in 25 EU/EEA countries and the UK in poultry (n=592), wild (n=421) and captive birds (n=9).The majority of the detections were reported by Francethat accounted for 442 outbreaks in poultry,mostly located inthe Landes regionandaffecting the foie gras production industry,and six wild bird detections; Germany,who reported 207 detections in wild birds and 50 poultry outbreaks; Denmark,with 63 detections in wild birds and one poultry outbreak; and Poland,with 37 poultry outbreaks and 24 wild bird detections. Due to the continued presence of HPAI A(H5) viruses in wild birds and the environment,there is still a risk of avian influenza incursions with the potential further spread between establishments, primarily in areas with high poultry densities. As the currently circulating HPAI A(H5N8) virus cancause high mortality also in affected duck farms, mortality eventscan be seen as a good indicator of virus presence. However,also subclinical virusspread in this type of poultry production system have been reported.To improve early detection of infection in poultry within the surveillance zone, the clinical inspection of duck establishments should be complemented by encouraging farmers to collect dead birds to be pooled and tested weekly (bucket sampling).Six different genotypes were identified to date in Europe and Russia, suggesting a high propensity of these viruses to undergo multiple reassortment events. To date, no evidence of fixation of known mutations previously described as associated to zoonotic potential has been observed in HPAI viruses currently circulanting in Europe based on the available sequences.Seven cases due to A(H5N8) HPAI virus have been reported from Russia, all were poultry workerswith mild or no symptoms. Five human cases due to A(H5N6) HPAI and 10 cases due to A(H9N2) LPAI viruseshave been reported from China. The risk for the general population as well as travel-related imported human cases is assessed as very lowand the risk forpeople occupationally exposedpeople as low.Any human infections with avian influenza viruses are notifiablewithin 24 hoursthrough the Early Warning and Response System (EWRS) and the International Health Regulations (IHR) notification system.

In Vitro Profiling of Laninamivir-Resistant Substitutions in N3 to N9 Avian Influenza Virus Neuraminidase Subtypes and Their Association with In Vivo Susceptibility

Laninamivir (LAN) is a long-acting neuraminidase (NA) inhibitor (NAI) with a similar binding profile in the influenza NA enzyme active site as those of other NAIs, oseltamivir (OS), zanamivir (ZAN), and peramivir, and may share common resistance markers with these NAIs. We screened viruses with NA substitutions previously found during OS and ZAN selection in avian influenza viruses (AIVs) of the N3 to N9 subtypes for LAN susceptibility. Of the 72 NA substitutions, 19 conferred resistance to LAN, which ranged from 11.2- to 549.8-fold-decreased inhibitory activity over that of their parental viruses. Ten NA substitutions reduced the susceptibility to all four NAIs, whereas the remaining 26 substitutions yielded susceptibility to one or more NAIs. To determine whether the in vitro susceptibility of multi-NAI-resistant AIVs is associated with in vivo susceptibility, we infected BALB/c mice with recombinant AIVs with R292K (ma81K-N3_R292K) or Q136K (ma81K-N8_Q136K) NA substitutions, which impart in vitro susceptibility only to LAN or OS, respectively. Both ma81K-N3_R292K and ma81K-N8_Q136K virus-infected mice exhibited reduced weight loss, mortality, and lung viral titers when treated with their susceptible NAIs, confirming the in vitro susceptibility of these substitutions. Together, LAN resistance profiling of AIVs of a range of NA subtypes improves the understanding of NAI resistance mechanisms. Furthermore, the association of in vitro and in vivo NAI susceptibility indicates that our models are useful tools for monitoring NAI susceptibility of AIVs.IMPORTANCE The chemical structures of neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) possess similarities, but slight differences can result in variable susceptibility of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) carrying resistance-associated NA substitutions. Therefore, comprehensive susceptibility profiling of these substitutions in AIVs is critical for understanding the mechanism of antiviral resistance. In this study, we profiled resistance to the anti-influenza drug laninamivir in AIVs with substitutions known to impart resistance to other NAIs. We found 10 substitutions that conferred resistance to all four NAIs tested. On the other hand, we found that the remaining 26 NA substitutions were susceptible to at least one or more NAIs and showed for a small selection that in vitro data predicted in vivo behavior. Therefore, our findings highlight the usefulness of screening resistance markers in NA enzyme inhibition assays and animal models of AIV infections.

Avian influenza overview August - December 2020

Between 15 August and 7 December 2020, 561highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus detections were reported in 15EU/EEA countries and UK in wild birds, poultry andcaptive birds, with Germany (n=370), Denmark (n=65), the Netherlands (n=57) being the most affected countries.The majority of the detections have been reported in wild birds(n=510), primarily in barnacle goose, greylag goose, andEurasian wigeon. Raptors have also been detected infected, particularly common buzzard. The majority of the birds had been found dead or moribund,however, there are also reports ofHPAI virus infection in apparently healthy ducks or geese.A total of 43 HPAI outbreaks were notified in poultry;with signs of avian influenza infection being observed in at least 33 outbreaks;the most likely source of infection was indirect contact with wild birds. Three HPAI virus subtypes, A(H5N8) (n=518), A(H5N5) (n=17) and A(H5N1) (n=6),and four different genotypes were identified, suggesting the occurrence of multiple virus introductions into Europe.The reassortant A(H5N1) virus identified in EU/EEA countries has acquired gene segments from low pathogenic viruses and is not related to A(H5N1) viruses of e.g. clade 2.3.2.1c causing human infections outside of Europe. As the autumn migration of wild waterbirds to their wintering areasin Europe continues, and given the expected local movements of these birds, there is still a high risk of introduction andfurther spread ofHPAI A(H5) viruses within Europe.The risk of virus spread from wild birds to poultry is high and Member States should enforce in 'high risk areas' of their territories the measures provided for in Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2018/1136.Detection of outbreaks in breeder farms in Denmark, the Netherlands and United Kingdom, highlight also the risk of introduction via contaminated materials (bedding/straw) and equipment.Maintaining high and sustainable surveillance and biosecurityparticularly in high-risk areas is of utmost importance. Two human cases due to zoonoticA(H5N1) and A(H9N2) avian influenza virus infection were reportedduring the reporting period. The risk for the general population as well as travel-related imported human cases are assessed as very low.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N8 in Poland in 2019-2020

Introduction

Repeated incursions of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5 subtype of Gs/GD lineage pose a serious threat to poultry worldwide. We provide a detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal spread and genetic characteristics of HPAIV Gs/GD H5N8 from the 2019/20 epidemic in Poland.

Material and methods

Samples from poultry and free-living birds were tested by real-time RT-PCR. Whole genome sequences from 24 (out of 35) outbreaks were generated and genetic relatedness was established. The clinical status of birds and possible pathways of spread were analysed based on the information provided by veterinary inspections combined with the results of phylogenetic studies.

Results

Between 31 December 2019 and 31 March 2020, 35 outbreaks in commercial and backyard poultry holdings and 1 case in a wild bird were confirmed in nine provinces of Poland. Most of the outbreaks were detected in meat turkeys and ducks. All characterised viruses were closely related and belonged to a previously unrecognised genotype of HPAIV H5N8 clade 2.3.4.4b. Wild birds and human activity were identified as the major modes of HPAIV spread.

Conclusion

The unprecedentedly late introduction of the HPAI virus urges for re-evaluation of current risk assessments. Continuous vigilance, strengthening biosecurity and intensifying surveillance in wild birds are needed to better manage the risk of HPAI occurrence in the future.

Disease Outbreak, Health Scare, and Distance Decay: Evidence from HPAI Shocks in Chinese Meat Sector

Background: During zoonotic disease shocks (ZDSs), zoonotic disease outbreaks (ZDOs) can induce public health scares (PHSs), causing meat price risks (MPRs). Nevertheless, spatial spillovers of zoonotic disease shocks in meat markets remain unclear. We explore how zoonotic disease outbreaks and public health scares locally and spatially spill over to meat price risks, and whether spatial spillovers of public health scares decay with distance. Methods: (i) We construct a long panel covering 30 provinces and 121 months, using highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) epidemics as exogenous shocks in Chinese meat sector. (ii) We decompose zoonotic disease shocks into zoonotic disease outbreaks (objective incident) and public health scares (subjective information) and examine their spillovers to meat price risks. (iii) We identify distance-decaying spatial spillovers of public health scares, by running our dynamic SAR models 147 times, from 80 km to 3000 km with 20 km as incremental value, in a setting with risk-level heterogeneity. Results: (i) Zoonotic disease outbreaks themselves only cause local and neighboring meat price risks for high-risk meat, not for low-risk or substitute meat. (ii) Public health scares exacerbate local and neighboring meat price risks for high-risk and low-risk meat, and local meat price risks for substitute meat. (iii) Spatial spillovers of public health scares are distance-decaying and U-shaped, with four spatial attenuation boundaries, and distance turning point is shorter for high-risk meat (500 km) than for low-risk meat (800 km). Conclusions: We complement the literature by arguing that health scares induced by disease outbreaks negatively spill over to meat prices, with U-shaped distance-decaying spatial effects. This suggests low interregional spatial market integration in meat products, due to distance decay of nonstandardized information and local government control effects, across provincial boundaries. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to document nonmonotonic distance decay of health scare effects on food prices, previously not found by the literature.

Avian influenza overview May - August 2020

Between 16 May and 15 August 2020, seven highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N8) virus outbreaks were reported in Europe in poultry, with one outbreak reported in Bulgaria(n=1) andsix in Hungary (n=6) and one low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) A(H5N3) virus outbreak was reported in poultry in Italy. All six outbreaks detected in Hungary were secondary outbreaks and seem to be the tail end of the HPAI A(H5N8) epidemic that wasobserved in poultry over the winter and spring in central Europe from December 2019 (n=334).Genetic analysis of the HPAI A(H5N8) viruses isolated during this reporting period from Bulgaria and Hungary did not identify any major changes compared tothe viruses collected in the respective countries during the first months of 2020. This suggests a persistence of the virus in the two countries rather than new introductions via infectedwild birds. HPAI A(H5N8) virus has been detected in poultry and wild birds in western Russia within the reporting period, and as of the middle of September also in Kazakhstan. The presence of HPAI virus in western Russiaand in north Kazakhstan,spatially associated with autumnmigration routes of wild waterbirds, is of concern due to the possible spread of the virus via wild birds migrating to the EU.It is highly recommended thatMember States take appropriate measures to promptly detect suspected cases of HPAI, including increasing biosecurity measures. According to past experiences (2005-2006 and 2016-2017 epidemic waves), the northern and eastern European areas might be at higher risk of virus introduction in the coming autumn-winter seasonand should be the key regions where prompt response measures to early detect the virusshould be set up. One human case due to A(H9N2) avian influenza virus infection was reported during the reporting period.