Predicting the risk of Lyme disease: habitat suitability for Ixodes scapularis in the north central United States

Genome resequencing reveals population divergence and local adaptation of blacklegged ticks in the United States

Tick vectors and tick-borne disease are increasingly impacting human populations globally. An important challenge is to understand tick movement patterns, as this information can be used to improve management and predictive modelling of tick population dynamics. Evolutionary analysis of genetic divergence, gene flow and local adaptation provides insight on movement patterns at large spatiotemporal scales. We develop low coverage, whole genome resequencing data for 92 blacklegged ticks, Ixodes scapularis, representing range-wide variation across the United States. Through analysis of population genomic data, we find that tick populations are structured geographically, with gradual isolation by distance separating three population clusters in the northern United States, southeastern United States and a unique cluster represented by a sample from Tennessee. Populations in the northern United States underwent population contractions during the last glacial period and diverged from southern populations at least 50 thousand years ago. Genome scans of selection provide strong evidence of local adaptation at genes responding to host defences, blood-feeding and environmental variation. In addition, we explore the potential of low coverage genome sequencing of whole-tick samples for documenting the diversity of microbial pathogens and recover important tick-borne pathogens such as Borrelia burgdorferi. The combination of isolation by distance and local adaptation in blacklegged ticks demonstrates that gene flow, including recent expansion, is limited to geographical scales of a few hundred kilometres.

Ectoparasites of wild rodents in forest sites invaded and uninvaded by Maesopsis eminii in Amani nature forest reserve, Tanzania

Parasites are important component of communities in a forest ecosystem with profound effects on trophic interactions such as food web. Modification of the forest structure (e.g. changes in species composition and abundance of key species) can have a strong impact on the occurrence, diversity, and abundance of parasites, with subsequent repercussions for ecosystem functioning. In this study, we compared the occurrence and abundance of wild rodents' ectoparasites from forest sites invaded and uninvaded by an invasive tree, Maesopsis eminii in Amani Nature Forest Reserve, Tanzania. Three large plots (40 m × 100 m) were randomly established in each forest sites invaded and uninvaded by M. eminii. In each plot, 50 Sherman traps were systematically placed at 10 m interval for capturing wild rodents through a capture-mark-recapture technique. Wilcox rank sum test was used to compare for differences in the abundance of infested rodents and ectoparasites between the invaded and uninvaded forest sites. A total of 297 individual rodents were captured and screened for ectoparasites, including 174 rodents from uninvaded forest site and 123 rodents from invaded forest site. The number of infested rodents were significantly (W = 8592, P < 0.001) greater in uninvaded forest site (66.27%) than in the invaded forest site (36.2%). Furthermore, a significant greater number of Echinolaelaps echidninus (W = 1849, P < 0.01) and Dinopsyllus ellobius (W = 2800.5, P < 0.05) ectoparasites were found in uninvaded as compared to the invaded forest sites. The results of this study suggest that the invasion and dominance by, M. eminii in Amani Nature Reserve has created unfavorable conditions for rodents and ectoparasites and therefore impacting the diversity and function of the forest ecosystem. We recommend prevention of further introduction of the M. eminii outside their natural range and mitigating the impact of the established M. eminii in Amani Forest Nature Reserve.

Refining Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) distribution models: a comparison of current methods to an established protocol

Blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis Say) pose an enormous public health risk in eastern North America as the vector responsible for transmitting 7 human pathogens, including those causing the most common vector-borne disease in the United States, Lyme disease. Species distribution modeling is an increasingly popular method for predicting the potential distribution and subsequent risk of blacklegged ticks, however, the development of such models thus far is highly variable and would benefit from the use of standardized protocols. To identify where standardized protocols would most benefit current distribution models, we completed the "Overview, Data, Model, Assessment, and Prediction" (ODMAP) distribution modeling protocol for 21 publications reporting 22 blacklegged tick distribution models. We calculated an average adherence of 73.4% (SD ± 29%). Most prominently, we found that authors could better justify and connect their selection of variables and associated spatial scales to blacklegged tick ecology. In addition, the authors could provide clearer descriptions of model development, including checks for multicollinearity, spatial autocorrelation, and plausibility. Finally, authors could improve their reporting of variable effects to avoid undermining the models' utility in informing species-environment relationships. To enhance future model rigor and reproducibility, we recommend utilizing several resources including the ODMAP protocol, and suggest that journals make protocol compliance a publication prerequisite.

Ixodes scapularis density and Borrelia burgdorferi prevalence along a residential-woodland gradient in a region of emerging Lyme disease risk

The environmental risk of Lyme disease, defined by the density of Ixodes scapularis ticks and their prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi infection, is increasing across the Ottawa, Ontario region, making this a unique location to explore the factors associated with environmental risk along a residential-woodland gradient. In this study, we collected I. scapularis ticks and trapped Peromyscus spp. mice, tested both for tick-borne pathogens, and monitored the intensity of foraging activity by deer in residential, woodland, and residential-woodland interface zones of four neighbourhoods. We constructed mixed-effect models to test for site-specific characteristics associated with densities of questing nymphal and adult ticks and the infection prevalence of nymphal and adult ticks. Compared to residential zones, we found a strong increasing gradient in tick density from interface to woodland zones, with 4 and 15 times as many nymphal ticks, respectively. Infection prevalence of nymphs and adults together was 15 to 24 times greater in non-residential zone habitats. Ecological site characteristics, including soil moisture, leaf litter depth, and understory density, were associated with variations in nymphal density and their infection prevalence. Our results suggest that high environmental risk bordering residential areas poses a concern for human-tick encounters, highlighting the need for targeted disease prevention.

Tick abundance and infection with three zoonotic bacteria are heterogeneous in a Belgian peri-urban forest

Ixodes ricinus is a vector of several pathogens of public health interest. While forests are the primary habitat for I. ricinus, its abundance and infection prevalence are expected to vary within forest stands. This study assesses the spatio-temporal variations in tick abundance and infection prevalence with three pathogens in and around a peri-urban forest where human exposure is high. Ticks were sampled multiple times in 2016 and 2018 in multiple locations with a diversity of undergrowth, using the consecutive drags method. Three zoonotic pathogens were screened for, Borrelia burgdorferi s.l., Coxiella burnetii, and Francisella tularensis. The influence of season, type of site and micro-environmental factors on tick abundance were assessed with negative binomial generalized linear mixed-effects models. We collected 1642 nymphs and 181 adult ticks. Ticks were most abundant in the spring, in warmer temperatures, and where undergrowth was higher. Sites with vegetation unaffected by human presence had higher abundance of ticks. Forest undergrowth type and height were significant predictors of the level of tick abundance in a forest. The consecutive drags method is expected to provide more precise estimates of tick abundance, presumably through more varied contacts with foliage. Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. prevalence was estimated from pooled ticks at 5.33%, C. burnetii was detected in six pools and F. tularensis was not detected. Borrelia afzelii was the dominant B. burgdorferi genospecies. Tick abundance and B. burgdorferi s.l. infection prevalence were lower than other estimates in Belgian forests.

Multiple factors affecting Ixodes ricinus ticks and associated pathogens in European temperate ecosystems (northeastern France)

In Europe, the main vector of tick-borne zoonoses is Ixodes ricinus, which has three life stages. During their development cycle, ticks take three separate blood meals from a wide variety of vertebrate hosts, during which they can acquire and transmit human pathogens such as Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, the causative agent of Lyme borreliosis. In this study conducted in Northeastern France, we studied the importance of soil type, land use, forest stand type, and temporal dynamics on the abundance of ticks and their associated pathogens. Negative binomial regression modeling of the results indicated that limestone-based soils were more favorable to ticks than sandstone-based soils. The highest tick abundance was observed in forests, particularly among coniferous and mixed stands. We identified an effect of habitat time dynamics in forests and in wetlands: recent forests and current wetlands supported more ticks than stable forests and former wetlands, respectively. We observed a close association between tick abundance and the abundance of Cervidae, Leporidae, and birds. The tick-borne pathogens responsible for Lyme borreliosis, anaplasmosis, and hard tick relapsing fever showed specific habitat preferences and associations with specific animal families. Machine learning algorithms identified soil related variables as the best predictors of tick and pathogen abundance.

Mapping the distribution of Amblyomma americanum in Georgia, USA

BACKGROUND

Amblyomma americanum, the lone star tick, is an aggressive questing species that harbors several pathogens dangerous to humans in the United States. The Southeast in particular has large numbers of this tick due to the combined suitable climate and habitats throughout the region. No studies have estimated the underlying distribution of the lone star tick across the state of Georgia, a state where it is the dominant species encountered.

METHODS

Ticks were collected by flagging 198 transects of 750 m2 at 43 state parks and wildlife management areas across the state from March to July of 2022. A suite of climate, landscape, and wildlife variables were assembled, and a logistic regression model was used to assess the association between these environmental factors and the presence of lone star ticks and to predict the distribution of these ticks across the state.

RESULTS

A total of 59/198 (30%) transects sampled contained adult or nymph A. americanum, with the majority of transects containing these ticks (54/59, 91.5%) in forested habitats. The presence of A. americanum was associated with elevation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) on January 1, isothermality, temperature seasonality, and precipitation in the wettest quarter. Vast regions of central, eastern, and southern coastal Georgia (57% of the state) were categorized as suitable habitat for the lone star tick.

CONCLUSIONS

This study describes the distribution of the lone star tick across the state of Georgia at a finer scale than the current county-level information available. It identifies specific variables associated with tick presence and provides a map that can be used to target areas for tick prevention messaging and awareness.

Effects of Season, Habitat, and Host Characteristics on Ectoparasites of Wild Rodents in a Mosaic Rural Landscape

Despite the large number of studies on rodent ectoparasites-most of them vectors of epidemiologically important pathogens-infestation patterns remain poorly understood in various ecological contexts, such as the highly patchy agricultural landscapes. We aimed to relate the infestation of rodents to temporal, habitat, and host variables. We assessed the difference in parasite prevalence and mean abundance depending on host sex, age, and body weight, season, and land use intensity. Furthermore, we analysed the effect of host species abundance and the differential responses of parasites in main and minor host species. The field survey was conducted in a rural landscape in southern Transylvania (Romania) between June and September 2010-2011. We live-trapped small mammals, collected the ticks and fleas, and recorded the presence of lice and mites. Overall, we found the same infestation patterns largely reported in the literature: higher prevalence and mean abundance in heavier adult males, significant seasonality and differences among host species, and evidence of the dilution effect. The uniqueness of our study system was the negative effect of the land use intensity on the prevalence and mean abundance of parasites, explained by the highly patchy mosaic landscape.

Assessing the Influence of Climate Change and Environmental Factors on the Top Tick-Borne Diseases in the United States: A Systematic Review

In the United States (US), tick-borne diseases (TBDs) have more than doubled in the past fifteen years and are a major contributor to the overall burden of vector-borne diseases. The most common TBDs in the US-Lyme disease, rickettsioses (including Rocky Mountain spotted fever), and anaplasmosis-have gradually shifted in recent years, resulting in increased morbidity and mortality. In this systematic review, we examined climate change and other environmental factors that have influenced the epidemiology of these TBDs in the US while highlighting the opportunities for a One Health approach to mitigating their impact. We searched Medline Plus, PUBMED, and Google Scholar for studies focused on these three TBDs in the US from January 2018 to August 2023. Data selection and extraction were completed using Covidence, and the risk of bias was assessed with the ROBINS-I tool. The review included 84 papers covering multiple states across the US. We found that climate, seasonality and temporality, and land use are important environmental factors that impact the epidemiology and patterns of TBDs. The emerging trends, influenced by environmental factors, emphasize the need for region-specific research to aid in the prediction and prevention of TBDs.

Spatial variation in risk for tick-borne diseases in residential areas of Dutchess County, New York

Although human exposure to the ticks that transmit Lyme-disease bacteria is widely considered to occur around people's homes, most studies of variation in tick abundance and infection are undertaken outside residential areas. Consequently, the patterns of variation in risk of human exposure to tick-borne infections in these human-dominated landscapes are poorly understood. Here, we report the results of four years of sampling for tick abundance, tick infection, tick encounters, and tick-borne disease reports on residential properties nested within six neighborhoods in Dutchess County, New York, USA, an area of high incidence for Lyme and other tick-borne diseases. All properties were within neighborhoods that had been randomly assigned as placebo controls in The Tick Project; hence, none were treated to reduce tick abundance during the period of investigation, providing a unique dataset of natural variation within and between neighborhoods. We estimated the abundance of host-seeking blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis) in three types of habitats on residential properties-forests, lawns, and gardens. In forest and lawn habitats, some neighborhoods had consistently higher tick abundance. Properties within neighborhoods also varied consistently between years, suggesting hot spots and cold spots occurring at a small (~ 1-hectare) spatial scale. Across neighborhoods, the abundance of nymphal ticks was explained by neither the amount of forest in that neighborhood, nor by the degree of forest fragmentation. The proportion of ticks infected with three common tick-borne pathogens did not differ significantly between neighborhoods. We observed no effect of tick abundance on human encounters with ticks, nor on either human or pet cases of tick-borne diseases. However, the number of encounters between ticks and outdoor pets in a neighborhood was negatively correlated with the abundance of questing ticks in that neighborhood. Our results reinforce the need to understand how human behavior and neglected ecological factors affect variation in human encounters with ticks and cases of tick-borne disease in residential settings.

Mapping the potential distribution of the principal vector of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus Hyalomma marginatum in the Old World

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is the most widely distributed tick-borne viral disease in humans and is caused by the Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV). The virus has a broader distribution, expanding from western China and South Asia to the Middle East, southeast Europe, and Africa. The historical known distribution of the CCHFV vector Hyalomma marginatum in Europe includes most of the Mediterranean and the Balkan countries, Ukraine, and southern Russia. Further expansion of its potential distribution may have occurred in and out of the Mediterranean region. This study updated the distributional map of the principal vector of CCHFV, H. marginatum, in the Old World using an ecological niche modeling approach based on occurrence records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and a set of covariates. The model predicted higher suitability of H. marginatum occurrences in diverse regions of Africa and Asia. Furthermore, the model estimated the environmental suitability of H. marginatum across Europe. On a continental scale, the model anticipated a widespread potential distribution encompassing the southern, western, central, and eastern parts of Europe, reaching as far north as the southern regions of Scandinavian countries. The distribution of H. marginatum also covered countries across Central Europe where the species is not autochthonous. All models were statistically robust and performed better than random expectations (p < 0.001). Based on the model results, climatic conditions could hamper the successful overwintering of H. marginatum and their survival as adults in many regions of the Old World. Regular updates of the models are still required to continually assess the areas at risk using up-to-date occurrence and climatic data in present-day and future conditions.

Seasonal activity patterns of host-seeking Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in Minnesota, 2015-2017

As the primary vector of Lyme disease spirochetes and several other medically significant pathogens, Ixodes scapularis presents a threat to public health in the United States. The incidence of Lyme disease is growing rapidly in upper midwestern states, particularly Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. The probability of a tick bite, acarological risk, is affected by the phenology of host-seeking I. scapularis. Phenology has been well-studied in northeastern states, but not in the Upper Midwest. We conducted biweekly drag sampling across 4 woodland sites in Minnesota between April and November from 2015 to 2017. The majority of ticks collected were I. scapularis (82%). Adults were active throughout our entire 8-month collection season, with sporadic activity during the summer, larger peaks in activity observed in April, and less consistent and lower peaks observed in October. Nymphs were most active from May through August, with continuing low-level activity in October, and peak activity most commonly observed in June. The observed nymphal peak corresponded with the typical peak in reported human Lyme disease and anaplasmosis cases. These findings are consistent with previous studies from the Upper Midwest and highlight a risk of human exposure to I. scapularis at least from April through November. This information may aid in communicating the seasonality of acarological risk for those living in Minnesota and other upper midwestern states as well as being relevant to the assessment of the ecoepidemiology of Lyme disease and the modeling of transmission dynamics.

Mechanistic movement models to predict geographic range expansions of ticks and tick-borne pathogens: Case studies with Ixodes scapularis and Amblyomma americanum in eastern North America

The geographic range of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, is expanding northward from the United States into southern Canada, and studies suggest that the lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum, will follow suit. These tick species are vectors for many zoonotic pathogens, and their northward range expansion presents a serious threat to public health. Climate change (particularly increasing temperature) has been identified as an important driver permitting northward range expansion of blacklegged ticks, but the impacts of host movement, which is essential to tick dispersal into new climatically suitable regions, have received limited investigation. Here, a mechanistic movement model was applied to landscapes of eastern North America to explore 1) relationships between multiple ecological drivers and the speed of the northward invasion of blacklegged ticks infected with the causative agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, and 2) its capacity to simulate the northward range expansion of infected blacklegged ticks and uninfected lone star ticks under theoretical scenarios of increasing temperature. Our results suggest that the attraction of migratory birds (long-distance tick dispersal hosts) to resource-rich areas during their spring migration and the mate-finding Allee effect in tick population dynamics are key drivers for the spread of infected blacklegged ticks. The modeled increases in temperature extended the climatically suitable areas of Canada for infected blacklegged ticks and uninfected lone star ticks towards higher latitudes by up to 31% and 1%, respectively, and with an average predicted speed of the range expansion reaching 61 km/year and 23 km/year, respectively. Differences in the projected spatial distribution patterns of these tick species were due to differences in climate envelopes of tick populations, as well as the availability and attractiveness of suitable habitats for migratory birds. Our results indicate that the northward invasion process of lone star ticks is primarily driven by local dispersal of resident terrestrial hosts, whereas that of blacklegged ticks is governed by long-distance migratory bird dispersal. The results also suggest that mechanistic movement models provide a powerful approach for predicting tick-borne disease risk patterns under complex scenarios of climate, socioeconomic and land use/land cover changes.

Current and Future Habitat Suitability Models for Four Ticks of Medical Concern in Illinois, USA

The greater U.S. Midwest is on the leading edge of tick and tick-borne disease (TBD) expansion, with tick and TBD encroachment into Illinois occurring from both the northern and the southern regions. To assess the historical and future habitat suitability of four ticks of medical concern within the state, we fit individual and mean-weighted ensemble species distribution models for Ixodes scapularis, Amblyomma americanum, Dermacentor variabilis, and a newly invading species, Amblyomma maculatum using a variety of landscape and mean climate variables for the periods of 1970-2000, 2041-2060, and 2061-2080. Ensemble model projections for the historical climate were consistent with known distributions of each species but predicted the habitat suitability of A. maculatum to be much greater throughout Illinois than what known distributions demonstrate. The presence of forests and wetlands were the most important landcover classes predicting the occurrence of all tick species. As the climate warmed, the expected distribution of all species became strongly responsive to precipitation and temperature variables, particularly precipitation of the warmest quarter and mean diurnal range, as well as proximity to forest cover and water sources. The suitable habitat for I. scapularis, A. americanum, and A. maculatum was predicted to significantly narrow in the 2050 climate scenario and then increase more broadly statewide in the 2070 scenario but at reduced likelihoods. Predicting where ticks may invade and concentrate as the climate changes will be important to anticipate, prevent, and treat TBD in Illinois.

Patterns and Ecological Mechanisms of Tick-Borne Disease Exposure Risk in Acadia National Park, Mount Desert Island, Maine, United States

National parks are unique and significant vector-borne pathogen transmission settings, engaging over 300 million people in outdoor recreation per year. In this study, we integrated vector surveys and ecological habitat feature data in spatial models to characterize tick-borne disease exposure risk in Acadia National Park (ANP), Maine. To determine the broad-scale patterns of blacklegged tick Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae) densities in ANP, we conducted host-seeking tick collections at 114 sites across the park over two years. Using these tick survey data and geospatial landscape feature data (i.e., land cover, elevation, forest patch size, and aspect) we developed a random forest model of nymphal tick density. We found that host-seeking tick density varies significantly across the park and is particularly high in areas characterized by deciduous forest cover and relatively low elevation. To explore potential fine-scale ecological drivers of tick density spatial patterns, we quantified microclimate conditions, host activity, and vegetation characteristics at a subset of 19 sites. We identified significant differences in microclimate conditions but not host activity or vegetation metrics across broad-scale landscape feature classes. Mean temperature and mean humidity were correlated to nymphal densities and therefore may provide a mechanistic link between landscape features and blacklegged tick densities. Finally, we detected multiple tick-borne pathogens in both ticks and small mammals sampled in ANP, including Borrelia burgdorferi, Babesia microti, and Anaplasma phagocytophilum. Our findings demonstrate the value of using ecological metrics to estimate vector-borne disease exposure risk and provide insight into habitat characteristics that may drive tick-borne disease exposure risk.

Predicting spatio-temporal population patterns of Borrelia burgdorferi, the Lyme disease pathogen

The causative bacterium of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi, expanded from an undetected human pathogen into the etiologic agent of the most common vector-borne disease in the United States over the last several decades. Systematic field collections of the tick vector reveal increases in the geographic range and prevalence of B. burgdorferi-infected ticks that coincided with increases in human Lyme disease incidence across New York State.We investigate the impact of environmental features on the population dynamics of B. burgdorferi. Analytical models developed using field collections of nearly 19,000 nymphal Ixodes scapularis and spatially and temporally explicit environmental features accurately explained the variation in the nymphal infection prevalence of B. burgdorferi across space and time.Importantly, the model identified environmental features reflecting landscape ecology, vertebrate hosts, climatic metrics, climate anomalies and surveillance efforts that can be used to predict the biogeographical patterns of B. burgdorferi-infected ticks into future years and in previously unsampled areas.Forecasting the distribution and prevalence of a pathogen at fine geographic scales offers a powerful strategy to mitigate a serious public health threat. Synthesis and applications. A decade of environmental and tick data was collected to create a model that accurately predicts the infection prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi over space and time. This predictive model can be extrapolated to create a high-resolution risk map of the Lyme disease pathogen for future years that offers an inexpensive approach to improve both ecological management and public health strategies to mitigate disease risk.

Northward Expansion of Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) into Southwestern Michigan

Amblyomma americanum (Linnaeus) (Acari: Ixodidae) (lone star tick) is an aggressive, generalist parasite that vectors numerous important human and animal pathogens. In recent decades its geographic range has expanded northwards from endemic regions in the southeastern and southcentral United States. In 2019 five questing A. americanum ticks, comprising two life stages were detected at one site in southwestern Michigan, satisfying one CDC criterium for an established population for the first time in recent history in the state. To better characterize the extent of emerging A. americanum, we conducted active surveillance (i.e., drag sampling) in summer 2020 throughout Michigan's southern counties and detected one adult A. americanum from each of six widespread sites, including where they had been detected in 2019. A larger established population was identified at another site in Berrien County, which yielded 691 A. americanum comprising three life stages, and questing phenologies here were similar to that reported for other endemic regions. Statewide surveillance in 2021 revealed no A. americanum outside of Berrien County, but establishment criteria were met again at the two sites where established populations were first detected respectively in 2019 and 2020. These observations may represent the successful invasion of A. americanum into Michigan. Data from passive (1999-2020) and active surveillance (2004-2021) efforts, including a domestic animal sentinel program (2015-2018), are reported to provide context for this nascent invasion. Continued active surveillance is needed to help inform the public, medical professionals, and public health officials of the health risks associated with this vector.

Balsam fir (Abies balsamea) needles and their essential oil kill overwintering ticks (Ixodes scapularis) at cold temperatures

The blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, vectors Borrelia burgdorferi, a bacterium that causes Lyme Disease. Although synthetic pesticides can reduce tick numbers, there are concerns about their potential effects on beneficial insects, such as pollinators. Plant-based pest control agents such as essential oils could provide an alternative because they have low environmental persistency; however, these products struggle to provide effective control. We found a new natural acaricide, balsam fir (Abies balsamea) needles, that kill overwintering I. scapularis ticks. We extracted the essential oil from the needles, analyzed its chemical composition, and tested it for acaricidal activity. We placed ticks in tubes with substrate and positioned the tubes either in the field or in incubators simulating winter temperatures. We added balsam fir essential oil, or one of the main components of balsam fir essential oil (i.e., ß-pinene), to each tube. We found that both the oil and ß-pinene kill overwintering ticks. Whole balsam fir needles require several weeks to kill overwintering ticks, while the essential oil is lethal within days at low temperatures (≤ 4 °C). Further, low temperatures increased the efficacy of this volatile essential oil. Higher temperatures (i.e., 20 °C) reduce the acaricidal effectiveness of the essential oil by 50% at 0.1% v/v. Low temperatures may promote the effectiveness of other natural control products. Winter is an overlooked season for tick control and should be explored as a possible time for the application of low toxicity products for successful tick management.

A Scoping Review of Species Distribution Modeling Methods for Tick Vectors

Background

Globally, tick-borne disease is a pervasive and worsening problem that impacts human and domestic animal health, livelihoods, and numerous economies. Species distribution models are useful tools to help address these issues, but many different modeling approaches and environmental data sources exist.

Objective

We conducted a scoping review that examined all available research employing species distribution models to predict occurrence and map tick species to understand the diversity of model strategies, environmental predictors, tick data sources, frequency of climate projects of tick ranges, and types of model validation methods.

Design

Following the PRISMA-ScR checklist, we searched scientific databases for eligible articles, their references, and explored related publications through a graphical tool (www.connectedpapers.com). Two independent reviewers performed article selection and characterization using a priori criteria.

Results

We describe data collected from 107 peer-reviewed articles that met our inclusion criteria. The literature reflects that tick species distributions have been modeled predominantly in North America and Europe and have mostly modeled the habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus (n = 23; 21.5%). A wide range of bioclimatic databases and other environmental correlates were utilized among models, but the WorldClim database and its bioclimatic variables 1–19 appeared in 60 (56%) papers. The most frequently chosen modeling approach was MaxEnt, which also appeared in 60 (56%) of papers. Despite the importance of ensemble modeling to reduce bias, only 23 papers (21.5%) employed more than one algorithm, and just six (5.6%) used an ensemble approach that incorporated at least five different modeling methods for comparison. Area under the curve/receiver operating characteristic was the most frequently reported model validation method, utilized in nearly all (98.9%) included studies. Only 21% of papers used future climate scenarios to predict tick range expansion or contraction. Regardless of the representative concentration pathway, six of seven genera were expected to both expand and retract depending on location, while Ornithodoros was predicted to only expand beyond its current range.

Conclusion

Species distribution modeling techniques are useful and widely employed tools for predicting tick habitat suitability and range movement. However, the vast array of methods, data sources, and validation strategies within the SDM literature support the need for standardized protocols for species distribution and ecological niche modeling for tick vectors.

A patchy model for tick population dynamics with patch-specific developmental delays

Tick infestation and tick-borne disease spread in a region of multiple adjacent patches with different environmental conditions depend heavily on the host mobility and patch-specific suitability for tick growth. Here we introduce a two-patch model where environmental conditions differ in patches and yield different tick developmental delays, and where feeding adult ticks can be dispersed by the movement of larger mammal hosts. We obtain a coupled system of four delay differential equations with two delays, and we examine how the dynamical behaviours depend on patch-specific basic reproduction numbers and host mobility by using singular perturbation analyses and monotone dynamical systems theory. Our theoretical results and numerical simulations provide useful insights for tick population control strategies.

Inclusion of environmentally themed search terms improves Elastic net regression nowcasts of regional Lyme disease rates

Lyme disease is the most widely reported vector-borne disease in the United States. 95% of confirmed human cases are reported in the Northeast and upper Midwest (25,778 total confirmed cases from Northeast and upper Midwest / 27,203 total US confirmed cases). Human cases typically occur in the spring and summer months when an infected nymph Ixodid tick takes a blood meal. Current federal surveillance strategies report data on an annual basis, leading to nearly a year lag in national data reporting. These lags in reporting make it difficult for public health agencies to assess and plan for the current burden of Lyme disease. Implementation of a nowcasting model, using historical data to predict current trends, provides a means for public health agencies to evaluate current Lyme disease burden and make timely priority-based budgeting decisions. The objective of the study was to develop and compare the performance of nowcasting models using free data from Google Trends and Centers of Disease Control and Prevention surveillance reports. We developed two sets of elastic net models for five regions of the United States: 1. Using only monthly proportional hit data from the 21 disease symptoms and tick related terms, and 2. Using monthly proportional hit data from terms identified via Google correlate and the disease symptom and vector terms. Elastic net models using the full-term list were highly accurate (Root Mean Square Error: 0.74, Mean Absolute Error: 0.52, R2: 0.97) for four of the five regions of the United States and improved accuracy 1.33-fold while reducing error 0.5-fold compared to predictions from models using disease symptom and vector terms alone. Many of the terms included and found to be important for model performance were environmentally related. These models can be implemented to help local and state public health agencies accurately monitor Lyme disease burden during times of reporting lag from federal public health reporting agencies.

A Geographic Information System Approach to Map Tick Exposure Risk at a Scale for Public Health Intervention

Tick-borne disease control and prevention have been largely ineffective compared to the control of other vector-borne diseases. Although control strategies exist, they are costly or ineffective at large spatial scales. We need tools to target these strategies to places of highest tick exposure risk. Here we present a geographic information system (GIS) method for mapping predicted tick exposure risk at a 200 m by 200 m resolution, appropriate for public health intervention. We followed the approach used to map tick habitat suitability over large areas. We used drag-cloth sampling to measure the density of nymphal blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis, Say (Acari: Ixodidae)) at 24 sites in Addison and Rutland Counties, VT, United States. We used a GIS to average habitat, climatological, land-use/land-cover, and abiotic characteristics over 100 m, 400 m, 1,000 m, and 2,000 m buffers around each site to evaluate which characteristic at which buffer size best predicted density of nymphal ticks (DON). The relationships between predictor variables and DON were determined with random forest models. The 100 m buffer model performed best and explained 37.7% of the variation in DON, although was highly accurate at classifying sites as having below or above average DON. This model was applied to Addison County, VT, to predict tick exposure risk at a 200 m resolution. This GIS approach to map predicted DON over a small area with fine resolution, could be used to target public health campaigns and land management practices to reduce human exposure to ticks.

Mapping distributions of the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis, and spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi, in Kentucky using passive and active surveillance

Lyme disease is the most common tick-borne illness in the United States and is becoming more prevalent each year. It is transmitted to humans and animals through the bites of Ixodes scapularis ticks infected with Borrelia burgdorferi in the eastern United States, I. pacificus in the western U.S, and I. ricinus in Europe and Asia. In Kentucky, where Lyme disease is non-endemic, the number of reported human cases in 2010 totaled five. In 2019, that number had increased by over 300%. Identifying the distribution of I. scapularis populations infected with B. burgdorferi is important data for effective prevention strategies and an important first step in monitoring disease spread. In collaboration with the Kentucky Department for Public Health, we performed surveillance for I. scapularis throughout the state of Kentucky using both active and passive surveillance methods. Diagnostic testing for the identification of B. burgdorferi (sensu stricto) was also conducted. We identified 457 I. scapularis ticks from March 2019 to December 2020 from 32 counties in Kentucky. B. burgdorferi was detected in I. scapularis populations collected from 14 different counties. These results add to the little data that exists in Kentucky on I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi distribution.

The Effects of Lifestyle on the Risk of Lyme Disease in the United States: Evaluation of Market Segmentation Systems in Prevention and Control Strategies

The aim of this study was to investigate lifestyles at risk of Lyme disease, and to geographically identify target populations/households at risk based on their lifestyle preferences. When coupled with geographically identified patient health information (e.g., incidence, diagnostics), lifestyle data provide a more solid base of information for directing public health objectives in minimizing the risk of Lyme disease and targeting populations with Lyme-disease-associated lifestyles. We used an ESRI Tapestry segmentation system that classifies U.S. neighborhoods into 67 unique segments based on their demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. These 67 segments are grouped within 14 larger "LifeModes" that have commonalities based on lifestyle and life stage. Our dataset contains variables denoting the dominant Tapestry segments within each U.S. county, along with annual Lyme disease incidence rates from 2000 through 2017, and the average incidence over these 18 years. K-means clustering was used to cluster counties based on yearly incidence rates for the years 2000-2017. We used analysis of variance (ANOVA) statistical testing to determine the association between Lyme disease incidence and LifeModes. We further determined that the LifeModes Affluent Estates, Upscale Avenues, GenXurban, and Cozy Country Living were associated with higher Lyme disease risk based on the results of analysis of means (ANOM) and Tukey's post hoc test, indicating that one of these LifeModes is the LifeMode with the greatest Lyme disease incidence rate. We further conducted trait analysis of the high-risk LifeModes to see which traits were related to higher Lyme disease incidence. Due to the extreme regional nature of Lyme disease incidence, we carried out our national-level analysis at the regional level. Significant differences were detected in incidence rates and LifeModes in individual regions. We mapped Lyme disease incidence with associated LifeModes in the Northeast, Southeast, Midcontinent, Rocky Mountain, and Southwest regions to reflect the location-dependent nature of the relationship between lifestyle and Lyme disease.

Establishment of Amblyomma americanum populations and new records of Borrelia burgdorferi-infected Ixodes scapularis in South Dakota

Tick-borne diseases are an emerging public health threat in the United States, but surveillance is lacking in some regions. To advance current knowledge of the ecology of ticks and tick-borne diseases in South Dakota, we conducted a survey in the summer of 2019, focusing on the eastern counties of the state. We collected and identified 266 ticks and a subset were tested for the presence of Borrelia burgdorferi by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Dermacentor variabilis, a ubiquitous species in the state, was the most commonly identified tick, present in all counties surveyed. However, we also identified 15 Amblyomma americanum from three different locations, providing the first evidence of established populations in the state and expanding the range of this species. In addition, we identified 22 Ixodes scapularis from five different locations, confirming a previous report of an established population in the state. Two adult I. scapularis from two different sites were found to harbor B. burgdorferi, including an individual from Lincoln County, suggesting the ongoing presence of the pathogen in tick populations in the state and representing its southwestern-most detection in the midwest United States. These findings provide important information for assessing and monitoring the public health risk from tick-borne diseases in an area where surveillance is lacking.

Crowdsourced Tick Image-Informed Updates to U.S. County Records of Three Medically Important Tick Species

Burgeoning cases of tick-borne disease present a significant public health problem in the United States. Passive tick surveillance gained traction as an effective way to collect epidemiologic data, and in particular, photograph-based tick surveillance can complement in-hand tick specimen identification to amass distribution data and related encounter demographics. We compared the Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS) code of tick photos submitted to a free public identification service (TickSpotters) from 2014 to 2019 to published nationwide county reports for three tick species of medical concern: Ixodes scapularis Say (Ixodida: Ixodidae), Ixodes pacificus Cooley and Kohls (Ixodida: Ixodidae), and Amblyomma americanum Linneaus (Ixodida: Ixodidae). We tallied the number of TickSpotters submissions for each tick species according to "Reported" or "Established" criteria per county, and found that TickSpotters submissions represented more than half of the reported counties of documented occurrence, and potentially identified hundreds of new counties with the occurrence of these species. We detected the largest number of new county reports of I. scapularis presence in Michigan, North Carolina, and Texas. Tick image submissions revealed potentially nine new counties of occurrence for I. pacificus, and we documented the largest increase in new county reports of A. americanum in Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. These findings demonstrate the utility of crowdsourced photograph-based tick surveillance as a complement to other tick surveillance strategies in documenting tick distributions on a nationwide scale, its potential for identifying new foci, and its ability to highlight at-risk localities that might benefit from tick-bite prevention education.

Effect of Vegetation on the Abundance of Tick Vectors in the Northeastern United States: A Review of the Literature

Tick-borne illnesses have been on the rise in the United States, with reported cases up sharply in the past two decades. In this literature review, we synthesize the available research on the relationship between vegetation and tick abundance for four tick species in the northeastern United States that are of potential medical importance to humans. The blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) (Say; Acari: Ixodidae) is found to be positively associated with closed canopy forests and dense vegetation thickets, and negatively associated with open canopy environments, such as grasslands or old agricultural fields. The American dog tick (Dermacentor variabilis) (Say; Acari: Ixodidae) has little habitat overlap with I. scapularis, with abundance highest in grasses and open-canopy fields. The lone star tick (Amblyomma americanum) (Linnaeus; Acari: Ixodidae) is a habitat generalist without consistent associations with particular types of vegetation. The habitat associations of the recently introduced Asian longhorned tick (Haemaphysalis longicornis) (Neumann; Acari: Ixodidae) in the northeastern United States, and in other regions where it has invaded, are still unknown, although based on studies in its native range, it is likely to be found in grasslands and open-canopy habitats.

A Comparative Spatial and Climate Analysis of Human Granulocytic Anaplasmosis and Human Babesiosis in New York State (2013-2018)

Human granulocytic anaplasmosis (HGA) and human babesiosis are tick-borne diseases spread by the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis Say, Acari: Ixodidae) and are the result of infection with Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Babesia microti, respectively. In New York State (NYS), incidence rates of these diseases increased concordantly until around 2013, when rates of HGA began to increase more rapidly than human babesiosis, and the spatial extent of the diseases diverged. Surveillance data of tick-borne pathogens (2007 to 2018) and reported human cases of HGA (n = 4,297) and human babesiosis (n = 2,986) (2013-2018) from the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) showed a positive association between the presence/temporal emergence of each pathogen and rates of disease in surrounding areas. Incidence rates of HGA were higher than human babesiosis among White and non-Hispanic/non-Latino individuals, as well as all age and sex groups. Human babesiosis exhibited higher rates among non-White individuals. Climate, weather, and landscape data were used to build a spatially weighted zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model to examine and compare associations between the environment and rates of HGA and human babesiosis. HGA and human babesiosis ZINB models indicated similar associations with forest cover, forest land cover change, and winter minimum temperature; and differing associations with elevation, urban land cover change, and winter precipitation. These results indicate that tick-borne disease ecology varies between pathogens spread by I. scapularis.

Ecology of Powassan Virus in the United States

Zoonotic viruses threaten the lives of millions of people annually, exacerbated by climate change, human encroachment into wildlife habitats, and habitat destruction. The Powassan virus (POWV) is a rare tick-borne virus that can cause severe neurological damage and death, and the incidence of the associated disease (Powassan virus disease) is increasing in the eastern United States. The mechanisms by which POWV is maintained in nature and transmitted to humans are complex and only partly understood. This review provides an overview of what is known about the vector species, vector-host transmission dynamics, and environmental and human-driven factors that may be aiding the spread of both the vector and virus.

Efficacy of low-dose fipronil bait against blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) larvae feeding on white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) under simulated field conditions

BACKGROUND

Lyme disease, caused primarily by Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the United States. Treatment of rodent pathogen reservoirs with an oral acaricide may suppress the production of infected host-seeking ticks posing a risk for human infection. A previous study showed that an oral fipronil bait effectively controlled larval Ixodes scapularis ticks on white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) up to 15 days post-bait exposure. The present study expands upon this finding by exposing group-housed white-footed mice to fipronil bait under simulated field conditions prior to tick infestation.

METHODS

Mice (n = 80) were housed in groups of 10 within large enclosures and offered a choice between fipronil bait within a commercial bait station and an alternative diet. The mice were assigned to two treatment groups and two control groups to undergo bait exposure durations of either 24 h (reduced) or 168 h (extended). Groups were further differentiated by the time point post-bait exposure when larval ticks were applied to mice within feeding capsules (reduced day 1, day 15; extended day 21, day 35). For 4 days post-tick introduction, attached larvae were observed by microscopy and replete larvae were recovered. Replete larvae were monitored for molting success. Plasma was collected from all treatment group mice to obtain fipronil plasma concentrations (CP).

RESULTS

The fipronil bait (0.005% fipronil) was palatable and controlled larval ticks on white-footed mice when presented under simulated field conditions. Efficacy in preventing attached larvae from feeding to repletion was 100% (day 1), 89.0% (day 15), 85.8% (day 21), and 75.2% (day 35). When also considering molting success, the fipronil bait prevented 100% (day 1), 91.1% (day 15), 91.7% (day 21), and 82.5% (day 35) of larvae attaching to mice from molting. The mean CP per mouse was 191.5 ng/ml (day 1), 29.4 ng/ml (day 15), 10.6 ng/ml (day 21), and 1.0 ng/ml (day 35).

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that fipronil bait will be consumed by white-footed mice in the presence of an alternative diet, and effectively control larval ticks on treated mice. A field trial is needed to confirm the results of this study. Low-dose fipronil bait may provide a cost-effective means of controlling blacklegged ticks to be integrated into tick management programs.

An analysis of companion animal tick encounters as revealed by photograph-based crowdsourced data

Background

Community science is increasingly utilized to track important vectors of companion animal disease, providing a scalable, cost‐effective strategy for identifying new foci, changing phenology, and disease prevalence across wide geographies.

Objectives

We examined photographs of ticks found attached to predominately dogs and cats reported to a photograph‐based tick surveillance program to identify potential areas for improvements in tick prevention education and risk intervention.

Methods

We compared estimated days of tick attachment using a Kruskal–Wallis one‐way analysis of variance, and a Pearson's chi‐square analysis of variance on the number of submissions by host type submitted for each season.

Results

The blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) was the most common species reported (39.8%). Tick photographs submitted were almost entirely adults (89.5%), and ticks found on companion animals exhibited an estimated median engorgement time of 2.5 days. Ixodes scapularis displayed the highest median engorgement of the top tick species found feeding on companion animals (χ² = 98.96, p < 0.001). Ticks were spotted year‐round; during spring and summer, ticks collected from pets represented 15.4 and 12.8% of all submissions, but increased to 28.5 and 35.2% during autumn and winter, respectively.

Conclusions

Crowdsourced data reveal that mostly adult ticks are detected on pets, and they are found at a point in the blood‐feeding process that puts pets at heightened risk for disease transmission. The increase in proportion of ticks found on pets during colder months may reveal a critical knowledge gap amongst pet owners regarding seasonal activity of I. scapularis, a vector of Lyme disease, providing an opportunity for prevention‐education.

Environmental Correlates of Lyme Disease Emergence in Southwest Virginia, 2005-2014

Lyme disease is the most common tick-borne disease in North America. Though human infection is mostly transmitted in a limited geography, the range has expanded in recent years. One notable area of recent expansion is in the mountainous region of southwestern Virginia. The ecological factors that facilitate or constrain the range of human Lyme disease in this region remain uncertain. To evaluate this further, we obtained ecological data, including remotely sensed data on forest structure and vegetation, weather data, and elevation. These data were aggregated within the census block groups of a 9,153 km2 area around the cities of Blacksburg and Roanoke, VA, an area with heterogeneous Lyme disease transmission. In this geographic area, 755 individuals were reported to have Lyme disease in the 10 yr from 2006 to 2015, and these cases were aggregated by block group. A zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to evaluate which environmental variables influenced the abundance of Lyme disease cases. Higher elevation and higher vegetation density had the greatest effect size on the abundance of Lyme disease. Measures of forest edge, forest integrity, temperature, and humidity were not associated with Lyme disease cases. Future southward expansion of Lyme disease into the southeastern states may be most likely in ecologically similar mountainous areas.

Comparing Contributions of Passive and Active Tick Collection Methods to Determine Establishment of Ticks of Public Health Concern Within Illinois

In Illinois, between 1990 and 2017, tick-borne diseases in humans increased 10-fold, yet we have insufficient information on when and where people are exposed to vector ticks (Ixodida: Ixodidae). The aims of our research were to compare contributions of passive and active tick collection methods in determining establishment of ticks of public health concern and obtain information on tick distributions within Illinois. We used three surveillance strategies within the Illinois Tick Inventory Collaboration Network to gather information about the ticks of public health concern: 1) passive collection (voluntary submission by the public); 2) systematic collection (biweekly active surveillance); and 3) special collections (active collections in locations of special interest). Of collected adult and nymphal ticks, 436 were from passive collections, 142 from systematic collections, and 1,270 from special collections. Tick species distribution status changed in 36 counties. Our data provide noteworthy updates to distribution maps for use by public health agencies to develop prevention and control strategies. Additionally, the program built a network of collaborations and partnerships to support future tick surveillance efforts within Illinois and highlighted how the combination of the three surveillance strategies can be used to determine geographic spread of ticks, pinpoint locations in need of more surveillance, and help with long-term efforts that support phenology studies.

Impact of Land Use Changes and Habitat Fragmentation on the Eco-epidemiology of Tick-Borne Diseases

The incidence of tick-borne diseases has increased in recent decades and accounts for the majority of vector-borne disease cases in temperate areas of Europe, North America, and Asia. This emergence has been attributed to multiple and interactive drivers including changes in climate, land use, abundance of key hosts, and people's behaviors affecting the probability of human exposure to infected ticks. In this forum paper, we focus on how land use changes have shaped the eco-epidemiology of Ixodes scapularis-borne pathogens, in particular the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto in the eastern United States. We use this as a model system, addressing other tick-borne disease systems as needed to illustrate patterns or processes. We first examine how land use interacts with abiotic conditions (microclimate) and biotic factors (e.g., host community composition) to influence the enzootic hazard, measured as the density of host-seeking I. scapularis nymphs infected with B. burgdorferi s.s. We then review the evidence of how specific landscape configuration, in particular forest fragmentation, influences the enzootic hazard and disease risk across spatial scales and urbanization levels. We emphasize the need for a dynamic understanding of landscapes based on tick and pathogen host movement and habitat use in relation to human resource provisioning. We propose a coupled natural-human systems framework for tick-borne diseases that accounts for the multiple interactions, nonlinearities and feedbacks in the system and conclude with a call for standardization of methodology and terminology to help integrate studies conducted at multiple scales.

Assessing Public Tick Identification Ability and Tick Bite Riskiness Using Passive Photograph-Based Crowdsourced Tick Surveillance

Tick identification is critical for assessing disease risk from a tick bite and for determining requisite treatment. Data from the University of Rhode Island's TickEncounter Resource Center's photo-based surveillance system, TickSpotters, indicate that users incorrectly identified their submitted specimen 83% of the time. Of the top four most commonly submitted tick species, western blacklegged ticks (Ixodes pacificus Cooley & Kohls [Ixodida: Ixodidae]) had the largest proportion of unidentified or misidentified submissions (87.7% incorrectly identified to species), followed by lone star ticks (Amblyomma americanum Linneaus [Ixodida: Ixodidae]; 86.8% incorrect), American dog ticks (Dermacentor variabilis Say [Ixodida: Ixodidae]; 80.7% incorrect), and blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis Say [Ixodida: Ixodidae]; 77.1% incorrect). More than one quarter of participants (26.3%) submitted photographs of ticks that had been feeding for at least 2.5 d, suggesting heightened risk. Logistic regression generalized linear models suggested that participants were significantly more likely to misidentify nymph-stage ticks than adult ticks (odds ratio [OR] = 0.40, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.23, 0.68, P < 0.001). Ticks reported on pets were more likely to be identified correctly than those found on humans (OR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.01-2.04, P < 0.001), and ticks feeding for 2.5 d or longer were more likely to be misidentified than those having fed for one day or less (OR = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.29-0.65, P < 0.001). State and region of residence and season of submission did not contribute significantly to the optimal model. These findings provide targets for future educational efforts and underscore the value of photograph-based tick surveillance to elucidate these knowledge gaps.

Likely Geographic Distributional Shifts among Medically Important Tick Species and Tick-Associated Diseases under Climate Change in North America: A Review

Ticks rank high among arthropod vectors in terms of numbers of infectious agents that they transmit to humans, including Lyme disease, Rocky Mountain spotted fever, Colorado tick fever, human monocytic ehrlichiosis, tularemia, and human granulocytic anaplasmosis. Increasing temperature is suspected to affect tick biting rates and pathogen developmental rates, thereby potentially increasing risk for disease incidence. Tick distributions respond to climate change, but how their geographic ranges will shift in future decades and how those shifts may translate into changes in disease incidence remain unclear. In this study, we have assembled correlative ecological niche models for eight tick species of medical or veterinary importance in North America (Ixodes scapularis, I. pacificus, I. cookei, Dermacentor variabilis, D. andersoni, Amblyomma americanum, A. maculatum, and Rhipicephalus sanguineus), assessing the distributional potential of each under both present and future climatic conditions. Our goal was to assess whether and how species' distributions will likely shift in coming decades in response to climate change. We interpret these patterns in terms of likely implications for tick-associated diseases in North America.

Spatio-temporal variation in environmental features predicts the distribution and abundance of Ixodes scapularis

Many species have experienced dramatic changes in both geographic range and population sizes in recent history. Increases in the geographic range or population size of disease vectors have public health relevance as these increases often precipitate the emergence of infectious diseases in human populations. Accurately identifying environmental factors affecting the biogeographic patterns of vector species is a long-standing analytical challenge, stemming from a paucity of data capturing periods of rapid changes in vector demographics. We systematically investigated the occurrence and abundance of nymphal Ixodes scapularis ticks at 532 sampling locations throughout New York State (NY), USA, between 2008 and 2018, a time frame that encompasses the emergence of diseases vectored by these ticks. Analyses of these field-collected data demonstrated a range expansion into northern and western NY during the last decade. Nymphal abundances increased in newly colonised areas, while remaining stable in areas with long-standing populations over the last decade. These trends in the geographic range and abundance of nymphs correspond to both the geographic expansion of human Lyme disease cases and increases in incidence rates. Analytic models fitted to these data incorporating time, space, and environmental factors, accurately identified drivers of the observed changes in nymphal occurrence and abundance. These models accounted for the spatial and temporal variation in the occurrence and abundance of nymphs and can accurately predict nymphal population patterns in future years. Forecasting disease risk at fine spatial scales prior to the transmission season can influence both public health mitigation strategies and individual behaviours, potentially impacting tick-borne disease risk and subsequently human disease incidence.

A Generalized Additive Model Correlating Blacklegged Ticks With White-Tailed Deer Density, Temperature, and Humidity in Maine, USA, 1990-2013

Geographical range expansions of blacklegged tick [Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae)] populations over time in the United States have been attributed to a mosaic of factors including 20th century reforestation followed by suburbanization, burgeoning populations of the white-tailed deer [Odocoileus virginianus Zimmerman (Artiodactyla: Cervidae)], and, at the northern edge of I. scapularis' range, climate change. Maine, a high Lyme disease incidence state, has been experiencing warmer and shorter winter seasons, and relatively more so in its northern tier. Maine served as a case study to investigate the interacting impacts of deer and seasonal climatology on the spatial and temporal distribution of I. scapularis. A passive tick surveillance dataset indexed abundance of I. scapularis nymphs for the state, 1990-2013. With Maine's wildlife management districts as the spatial unit, we used a generalized additive model to assess linear and nonlinear relationships between I. scapularis nymph abundance and predictors. Nymph submission rate increased with increasing deer densities up to ~5 deer/km2 (13 deer/mi2), but beyond this threshold did not vary with deer density. This corroborated the idea of a saturating relationship between I. scapularis and deer density. Nymphs also were associated with warmer minimum winter temperatures, earlier degree-day accumulation, and higher relative humidity. However, nymph abundance only increased with warmer winters and degree-day accumulation where deer density exceeded ~2 deer/km2 (~6/mi2). Anticipated increases in I. scapularis in the northern tier could be partially mitigated through deer herd management.

Modeling the Sensitivity of Blacklegged Ticks (Ixodes scapularis) to Temperature and Land Cover in the Northeastern United States

The prevalence of Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases is dramatically increasing across the United States. While the rapid rise in Lyme disease is clear, the causes of it are not. Modeling Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae), the primary Lyme disease vector in the eastern United States, presents an opportunity to disentangle the drivers of increasing Lyme disease, including climate, land cover, and host populations. We improved upon a recently developed compartment model of ordinary differential equations that simulates I. scapularis growth, abundance, and infection with Borrelia burgdorferi (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae) by adding land cover effects on host populations, refining the representation of growth stages, and evaluating output against observed data. We then applied this model to analyze the sensitivity of simulated I. scapularis dynamics across temperature and land cover in the northeastern United States. Specifically, we ran an ensemble of 232 simulations with temperature from Hanover, New Hampshire and Storrs, Connecticut, and land cover from Hanover and Cardigan in New Hampshire, and Windsor and Danielson in Connecticut. Consistent with observations, simulations of I. scapularis abundance are sensitive to temperature, with the warmer Storrs climate significantly increasing the number of questing I. scapularis at all growth stages. While there is some variation in modeled populations of I. scapularis infected with B. burgdorferi among land cover distributions, our analysis of I. scapularis response to land cover is limited by a lack of observations describing host populations, the proportion of hosts competent to serve as B. burgdorferi reservoirs, and I. scapularis abundance.

Landscape features predict the current and forecast the future geographic spread of Lyme disease

Lyme disease, the most prevalent vector-borne disease in North America, is increasing in incidence and geographic distribution as the tick vector, Ixodes scapularis, spreads to new regions. We re-construct the spatial-temporal invasion of the tick and human disease in the Midwestern US, a major focus of Lyme disease transmission, from 1967 to 2018, to analyse the influence of spatial factors on the geographic spread. A regression model indicates that three spatial factors-proximity to a previously invaded county, forest cover and adjacency to a river-collectively predict tick occurrence. Validation of the predictive capability of this model correctly predicts counties invaded or uninvaded with 90.6% and 98.5% accuracy, respectively. Reported incidence increases in counties after the first report of the tick; based on this modelled relationship, we identify 31 counties where we suspect I. scapularis already occurs yet remains undetected. Finally, we apply the model to forecast tick establishment by 2021 and predict 42 additional counties where I. scapularis will probably be detected based upon historical drivers of geographic spread. Our findings leverage resources dedicated to tick and human disease reporting and provide the opportunity to take proactive steps (e.g. educational efforts) to prevent and limit transmission in areas of future geographic spread.

A Beginner's Guide to Collecting Questing Hard Ticks (Acari: Ixodidae): A Standardized Tick Dragging Protocol

Tick-borne diseases are emerging globally, necessitating increased research and coordination of tick surveillance practices. The most widely used technique for active collection of host-seeking, human-biting tick vectors is 'tick dragging', by which a cloth is dragged across the top of the vegetation or forest floor and regularly checked for the presence of ticks. Use of variable dragging protocols limits the ability of researchers to combine data sets for comparative analyses or determine patterns and trends across different spatial and temporal scales. Standardization of tick drag collection and reporting methodology will greatly benefit the field of tick-pathogen studies. Based on the recommendations of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention and other ecological considerations, we propose that tick dragging should be conducted to sample at least 750 m2 along linear transects when habitat allows in a manner that reduces bias in the sampled area, and report density of each tick species and life stage separately. A protocol for constructing a standard drag cloth, establishing linear transects, and drag sampling is presented, along with a downloadable datasheet that can be modified to suit the needs of different projects. Efforts to align tick surveillance according to these standard best practices will help generate robust data on tick population biology.

Tickborne disease awareness and protective practices among U.S. Forest Service employees from the upper Midwest, USA

Background

People with occupations that require them to spend time working outdoors in suitable tick habitats are predicted to be at an increased risk for tick-borne diseases (TBDs). However, few studies have assessed the risks of outdoor employees in the United States.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional survey to collect data on exposure to ticks and TBD infections among U.S. Forest Service employees in a high TBD incidence region of northern Wisconsin, and to examine employee knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAPs) regarding TBDs to help guide future education and prevention programs. Chi-square contingency tables, calculations of odds ratios, and logistic regression models were used to identify associations among self-reported employee factors, the proportion of correctly answered knowledge questions, their ranked concern for TBDs, adherence to practicing preventive behaviors, and willingness to pay for protective measures.

Results

Ninety-five employees completed the survey. Nearly all respondents (97%) reported recent tick exposure, with 27% reporting encountering 10 or more ticks per week during peak tick season. Employee knowledge of TBD was high (median score: 80% correct). Fifty-nine percent of respondents had high concern for TBDs, and there was high adherence to conducting body checks for ticks (83% reported always doing them), but only moderate use of tick repellents (24% reported always and 60% reported occasionally using). High concern for TBD (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 6.32 [95% confidence intervals, 1.97–20.28]), a history of TBD diagnosis (aOR = 5.88 [1.41–24.55]), and older age (≥ 46 years) (aOR = 3.29 [1.00–10.84]) were positively associated with high practice adherence. Respondents suggested they would be willing to pay for personal protective methods and get a hypothetical vaccine for Lyme disease, but not community-wide efforts to control ticks.

Conclusions

Our study provides evidence that U.S. Forest Service employees in Wisconsin represent a high risk group for TBD, and despite relatively high TBD knowledge and engagement in tick protection activities, efforts are needed to reduce their risks for tick bites. More generally, our findings suggest that studies to better understand the factors related to the adoption and effectiveness of public health interventions are needed.

Epidemic character and environmental factors in epidemic areas of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Shandong Province

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging lethal tick-borne disease that has been widely prevalent in East Asia in recent years, and raised an important public health problem in China. However, a comprehensive and thorough understanding of the current SFTS epidemic areas in Shandong Province is not available. Accordingly, a descriptive analysis was applied to explore the demographic and spatio-temporal features of SFTS cases in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2015. The division between epidemic areas and non-epidemic areas was given by maximum entropy niche model (MaxEnt) based on environmental factors such as temperature and precipitation. There were 1,786 SFTS cases between 2010 and 2015 in Shandong, mainly involving middle-aged and elderly individuals (age:40-80) and farmers (84.6 %). May-October was the high-incidence period and the SFTS cases were mostly clustered in the central and eastern regions of Shandong Province. In light of MaxEnt, 3 specific environmental features between dichotomous areas were identified, including 1) most epidemic areas are covered by acidic soils (Constituent ratio: 63.8 %) while 29.1 % coverage appears in non-epidemic areas, 2) compared with non-epidemic areas, the identical kinds of agricultural areas accounted for a higher constituent ratio (64.9 % vs. 42.7 %), and 3) lower level of annual temperature in epidemic areas compared to non-epidemic areas [Median: 13.2℃ vs. 14.2℃; (25th IQR, 75th IQR): (12.5, 13.7) vs. (13.6, 14.9)]. Our study suggests middle-aged and elderly farmers are high-risk population to be focused on in future prevention and acidic soils, agricultural activities as well lower temperature that may be related to increased SFTS incidence.

Species distribution models for the eastern blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, and the Lyme disease pathogen, Borrelia burgdorferi, in Ontario, Canada

The blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, is established in several regions of Ontario, Canada, and continues to spread into new geographic areas across the province at a rapid rate. This poses a significant public health risk since I. scapularis transmits the Lyme disease-causing bacterium, Borrelia burgdorferi, and other pathogens of potential public health concern. The objective of this study was to develop species distribution models for I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi to predict and compare the potential distributions of the tick vector and the Lyme disease pathogen as well as the ecological factors most important for species establishment. Ticks were collected via tick dragging at 120 sites across southern, central, and eastern Ontario between 2015 and 2018 and tested for tick-borne pathogens. A maximum entropy (Maxent) approach was used to model the potential distributions of I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi. Two independent datasets derived from tick dragging at 25 new sites in 2019 and ticks submitted by the public to local health units between 2015 and 2017 were used to validate the predictive accuracy of the models. The model for I. scapularis showed high suitability for blacklegged ticks in eastern Ontario and some regions along the shorelines of the Great Lakes, and moderate suitability near Algonquin Provincial Park and the Georgian Bay with good predictive accuracy (tick dragging 2019: AUC = 0.898; ticks from public: AUC = 0.727). The model for B. burgdorferi showed a similar predicted distribution but was more constrained to eastern Ontario, particularly between Ottawa and Kingston, and along Lake Ontario, with similarly good predictive accuracy (tick dragging 2019: AUC = 0.958; ticks from public: AUC = 0.863. The ecological variables most important for predicting the distributions of I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi included elevation, distance to deciduous and coniferous forest, proportions of agricultural land, water, and infrastructure, mean summer/spring temperature, and cumulative annual degree days above 0°C. Our study presents a novel application of species distribution modelling for I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi in Ontario, Canada, and provides an up to date projection of their potential distributions for public health knowledge users.

Spatial risk analysis for the introduction and circulation of six arboviruses in the Netherlands

Background

Arboviruses are a growing public health concern in Europe, with both endemic and exotic arboviruses expected to spread further into novel areas in the next decades. Predicting where future outbreaks will occur is a major challenge, particularly for regions where these arboviruses are not endemic. Spatial modelling of ecological risk factors for arbovirus circulation can help identify areas of potential emergence. Moreover, combining hazard maps of different arboviruses may facilitate a cost-efficient, targeted multiplex-surveillance strategy in areas where virus transmission is most likely. Here, we developed predictive hazard maps for the introduction and/or establishment of six arboviruses that were previously prioritized for the Netherlands: West Nile virus, Japanese encephalitis virus, Rift Valley fever virus, tick-borne encephalitis virus, louping-ill virus and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus.

Methods

Our spatial model included ecological risk factors that were identified as relevant for these arboviruses by an earlier systematic review, including abiotic conditions, vector abundance, and host availability. We used geographic information system (GIS)-based tools and geostatistical analyses to model spatially continuous datasets on these risk factors to identify regions in the Netherlands with suitable ecological conditions for arbovirus introduction and establishment.

Results

The resulting hazard maps show that there is spatial clustering of areas with either a relatively low or relatively high environmental suitability for arbovirus circulation. Moreover, there was some overlap in high-hazard areas for virus introduction and/or establishment, particularly in the southern part of the country.

Conclusions

The similarities in environmental suitability for some of the arboviruses provide opportunities for targeted sampling of vectors and/or sentinel hosts in these potential hotspots of emergence, thereby increasing the efficient use of limited resources for surveillance.

Mapping Brazilian spotted fever: Linking etiological agent, vectors, and hosts

Brazilian spotted fever (BSF) is a highly lethal disease in southeastern Brazil. BSF is caused by the bacterium Rickettsia rickettsii and is transmitted by the bites of the tick of the genus Amblyomma. The spatial distribution of BSF risk areas is not well known in the country given the complexity of the transmission cycle. This study used the ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach to anticipate the potential distribution of the etiological agent (Rickettsia rickettsii), vectors (Amblyomma sculptum and A. dubitatum), and hosts (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris, Didelphis aurita, and D. marsupialis) of BSF in Brazil. We compiled occurrence records for all vectors, hosts, and BSF from our own field surveillance, online repositories, and literature. ENM identified BSF risk areas in southeastern and southern Brazil, and anticipated other dispersed suitable areas in the western, central, and northeastern coast regions of Brazil. Tick vectors and mammalian hosts were confined to these same areas; however, host species showed broader suitability in northern Brazil. All species ENMs performed significantly better than random expectations. We also tested the BSF prediction based on 253 additional independent cases identified in our surveillance; the model anticipated 251 out of 253 of these independent cases. Background similarity tests comparing the ENMs of R. rickettsii, tick vectors, and mammalian hosts were unable to reject null hypotheses of niche similarity. Finally, we observed close coincidence between independent BSF cases, and areas suitable for combinations of vectors and hosts, reflecting the ability of these model pairs to anticipate the distribution of BSF cases across Brazil.

Impact of Unexplored Data Sources on the Historical Distribution of Three Vector Tick Species in Illinois

We updated the Illinois historical (1905-December 2017) distribution and status (not reported, reported or established) maps for Amblyomma americanum (L.) (Acari: Ixodidae), Dermacentor variabilis (Say) (Acari: Ixodidae), and Ixodes scapularis (Say) (Acari: Ixodidae) by compiling publicly available, previously unexplored or newly identified published and unpublished data (untapped data). Primary data sources offered specific tick-level information, followed by secondary and tertiary data sources. For A. americanum, D. variabilis, and I. scapularis, primary data contributed to 90% (4,045/4,482), 80% (2,124/2,640), and 32% (3,490/10,898) tick records vs 10%, 20%, and 68%, respectively from secondary data; primary data updated status in 95% (62/65), 94% (51/54) and in 90% (9/10) of the updated counties for each of these tick species; by 1985 there were tick records in 6%, 68%, and 0% of the counties, compared to 20%, 72%, and 58% by 2004, and 77%, 96%, and 75% of the counties by 2017, respectively for A. americanum, D. variabilis, and I. scapularis. We document the loss of tick records due to unidentified, not cataloged tick collections, unidentified ticks in tick collections, unpublished data or manuscripts without specific county location, and tick-level information, to determine distribution and status. In light of the increase in tick-borne illnesses, updates in historical distributions and status maps help researchers and health officials to identify risk areas for a tick encounter and suggest targeted areas for public outreach and surveillance efforts for ticks and tick-borne diseases. There is a need for a systematic, national vector surveillance program to support research and public health responses to tick expansions and tick-borne diseases.

Mapping the environmental suitability of etiological agent and tick vectors of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is one of the most important public health threats in many regions across Africa, Europe, and Asia. This study used ecological niche modeling analyses to map the environmental suitability of both CCHF virus (CCHFV), and its tick vectors (Amblyomma variegatum, Dermacentor marginatus, Hyalomma marginatum, Hyalomma rufipes, Hyalomma truncatum, Rhipicephalus appendiculatus, and Rhipicephalus evertsi evertsi) in the Old World countries. The CCHFV was anticipated to occur with high environmental suitability across southern and central Europe, northwestern Africa, central Asia, and western Mediterranean region. Ecological niche models of tick vectors anticipated diverse patterns based on the tick species in question; D. marginatus and H. marginatum showed high environmental suitability in southern and central Europe, and North Africa. The remaining vector species were anticipated to occur in Africa. All models were statistically robust and performed better than random (P < 0.001). Finally, we tested the niche similarities between CCHFV and diverse tick vectors and could not reject the null hypotheses of niche similarity in all vector-virus combinations (P > 0.05) except the combinations of CCHFV with A. variegatum, R. evertsi evertsi and R. appendiculatus (P < 0.05).