Reemerging rabies and lack of systemic surveillance in People's Republic of China

Cross-correlation and time series analysis of rabies in different animal species in Nepal from 2005 to 2018

Rabies is a fatal zoonotic disease, resulting in human and livestock deaths. In Nepal, animal rabies has posed a significant challenge to public health. Because animals are the primary source of rabies in humans, a better understanding of rabies epidemiology in animals is necessary. The objectives of this study were to determine the correlation between rabies occurrences in dogs and livestock animals and to detect the trends and change points of the disease using longitudinal data. The nationwide rabies dataset from 2005 to 2018 was analyzed using cross-correlation, multiple change points, and time series methods. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Neural Network Autoregression (NNAR) were applied to the time series data. The results show a positive correlation between canine rabies and livestock rabies occurrences. Three significant change points were detected in the time series data, demonstrating that the occurrences were high in the initial years but stabilized before peaking to an upward trend in the final years of the study period. Nonetheless, there was no seasonality pattern in rabies occurrences. The most suitable models were ARIMA (2,1,2) and NNAR (5,1,4) (12). Based on the study findings, both locals and tourists in Nepal need to have enhanced awareness of the potential dangers posed by rabies in canines and livestock. This study offers much-needed insight into the patterns and epidemiology of animal rabies which will be helpful for policymakers in drafting rabies control plans for Nepal.

Spatiotemporal patterns of rabid dogs and cats and the opinions of personnel responsible for disease control in Thailand

The aim of this study was to evaluate the patterns of rabies cases in dogs and cats in Thailand from 2013 to 2016 via spatiotemporal analysis. We also assessed the opinions of responsible district-level personnel regarding risk factors and control measures for rabies. Evaluation of rabies case patterns was based on secondary data from a national online database, and a structured questionnaire was used to obtain the opinions of district-level personnel. A total of 1202 cases (1202/13058, 9.21 %) of rabid dogs and cats were documented between 2013 and 2016, with the majority of cases involving dogs (1165/13058; 8.92 %). The spatiotemporal analysis indicated that most of the cases were recorded in central Thailand and that there was a general trend of an increase in rabies cases from the beginning of 2013 to the end of 2016. Month-by-month analysis for each year suggested that the number of rabies cases tended to increase over the course of the year in 2013 and 2016. Results from the autocorrelation indicated that the correlation coefficient tended to be similar in adjacent time lags. In terms of the opinion analysis, only one factor (i.e., the presence of a forest that served as a habitat for carrier animals in the district) was statistically significant (P < 0.05) in the final binary logistic regression model. The results of this study may facilitate planning for effective rabies control in Thailand.

Optimizing Dog Rabies Vaccination Services to the Public: A Discrete Choice Experiment in Guangdong, China

Vaccination for dogs is essential for controlling rabies and achieving the goal of eliminating dog-mediated rabies globally by 2030. This paper aims to investigate the preferences for public services regarding rabies vaccination, in an effort to optimize the existing rabies vaccination and prevention programs in China. The households investigated had significant preferences for dog rabies vaccination service attributes. The households can be classified into three types: resolute executors (52.13%), mischievous rebels (5.85%), and incentivized compliers (42.02%). The residence, the presence of children in the household, perception of the safety risks, and knowledge of rabies may be sources of heterogeneity. Supportive services on dog rabies vaccination should be made available, such as arranging weekend vaccination services, building mobile vaccination stations, providing home vaccination services, and increasing vaccine supply through multiple channels. Furthermore, multiple measures can be taken to increase rabies vaccination awareness among family members and facilitate dog management innovation to further increase the level of rabies prevention and control.

Progress towards dog-mediated rabies elimination in PR China: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Rabies continues to be a serious threat to global public health endangering people's health and public health safety. In the People's Republic of China, multi-sectoral and comprehensive prevention and control strategies have aimed to extensively curb human rabies transmission. Here, we examine the current state of rabies infection in China, explore strategic interventions put in place in response to WHO's ambition of "Zero rabies deaths by 2030" and critically assess the constraints and feasibility of dog-mediated rabies elimination in China.

METHODS

This study analyzed and evaluated the process towards dog-mediated rabies elimination in China from five perspectives: namely, human, dog, policy, challenge, and prospects. Evidence-based data on progress of dog-mediated rabies elimination in China was derived from a number of sources; a literature search was undertaken using PubMed, Web of Science and CNKI databases, distribution data for human rabies cases as derived from the Data-center of the China Public Health Science and policy and document data were obtained from official websites of the relevant China ministries and commissions.

RESULTS

The incidence of human rabies cases in China have shown a downward trend year-on-year since 2007. Implementation of a government-led, multi-sectoral "One Health" approach to combating rabies has driven down the total number of rabies deaths nationwide to around 200 in 2020. The number of provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) reporting human cases of rabies has also decreased to 21 in 2020, 13 of which reported less than 10 cases. Furthermore, the number of outpatient visits seeking rabies post-exposure prophylaxis has risen dramatically over the past two decades, with demand being 15 times higher than it was initially. There remain however, significant gaps in rabies elimination outcomes across the different regions of China. To date the target of achieving a canine rabies vaccination rate of > 75% has not been met. The challenges of rabies immunization of dogs and dog management in underdeveloped cities and rural areas need to be addressed together with more effective animal surveillance and rabies risk from and too wildlife and livestock.

CONCLUSIONS

The Chinese government-led, multi-sectoral "One Health" approach to combating rabies and has made significant progress over the past decade. Development and adoption of more cost-effective One Health strategies can achieve more nationally beneficial rabies elimination outcomes. The ambitious target of "Zero rabies deaths by 2030" can be met through establishment of long-lasting herd immunity in dogs by means of dog mass vaccination campaigns, dog population management, epidemiological surveillance and the application of large-scale oral rabies vaccine to eliminate rabies in wild animals coupled with deployment of cost-effective human post-exposure prophylaxis, and community education.

Factors Associated with Dog Rabies Immunization in Changsha, China: Results of a Cross-Sectional Cluster Survey, 2015-2021

The objective of this study was to examine longitudinal trends in the prevalence of dogs that are successfully immunized against rabies virus (as measured by sufficient serum antibodies) in Changsha, an urban center of China. The secondary objective was to investigate the factors affecting the seroprevalence of rabies virus antibodies in dogs. In this study, 4515 canine serum samples were collected from 57 pet hospitals (immunization points) during the period of 2015-2021 in five major urban areas of Kaifu, Furong, Tianxin, Yuhua, and Yuelu in Changsha, China. The enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) method was used to analyze the level and trend of rabies virus antibodies in serum and further evaluate the potential factors affecting the immunization effect from five factors: sex, age, time interval after most recent vaccination and sample collection, number of vaccinations, and vaccine manufacturer. The results showed that the seroconversion from the urban dog in Changsha steadily increased from 46.13% to 73.38% during 2015-2017. The seropositivity prevalence remained above the international standard (70%) from 2018 to 2020 and up to 90.99% in 2021. Further analysis showed that the seroconversion of rabies virus among dogs was significantly affected by the age, the number of vaccinations, time interval after the most recent vaccination and sample collection, and vaccine manufacturer, while sex had less influence. The overall rabies vaccination situation in urban areas of Changsha generally meets international standards, with only a few areas showing low levels of antibodies in dogs after vaccination and risk of infectiousness. Therefore, it is recommended that the first vaccination should be given when the dog is about three months old and regularly repeated every year after that. At the same time, antibody concentrations in dogs, especially in newborn puppies and older dogs, need to be tested promptly after vaccination at the required time to ensure that they are at a high level of immune protection, which can strengthen the supervision of rabies.

Animal Rabies Surveillance, China, 2004-2018

Rabies is a severe zoonotic disease in China, but the circulation and distribution of rabies virus (RABV) within animal reservoirs is not well understood. We report the results of 15 years of surveillance of the first Chinese Rabies Surveillance Plan in animal populations, in which animal brain tissues collected during 2004–2018 were tested for RABV and phylogenetic and spatial–temporal evolutionary analyses performed using obtained RABV sequences. The results have provided the most comprehensive dataset to date on the infected animal species, geographic distribution, transmission sources, and genetic diversity of RABVs in China. In particular, the transboundary transmission of emerging RABV subclades between China and neighboring countries was confirmed. The study highlights the importance of continuous animal rabies surveillance in monitoring the transmission dynamics, and provides updated information for improving current control and prevention strategies at the source.

Knowledge, attitude, and practice about rabies prevention and control: A community survey in Nepal

Background and Aim:

Rabies is a fatal zoonosis caused by RNA virus belonging to genus Lyssavirus. Nepal is one of the endemic countries in South Asia for rabies. This study was conducted to better understand the knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) of Nepalese community toward rabies across five developmental zones of the country.

Materials and Methods:

The cross-sectional study was carried out by face-to-face interview using structured questionnaires among 5000 respondents of five cities representing each of the five developmental regions of Nepal by adopting random cluster sampling procedure. The respondents were classified into four categories, including gender, age, education, and social status. The responses for KAP variables were analyzed using descriptive and Chi-square test.

Results:

The male and younger age respondents with higher education and social status were found more knowledgeable than their counterparts in terms of knowledge variables, including cause of rabies, mode of transmission, clinical signs, treatment, and preventive measures of this fatal disease. Similar findings were observed for attitude and practice variables such as vaccination practice, dog sterilization, health-seeking behavior, first aid practice, and use of first aid materials after dog bites. Some respondents in elderly age group still preferred to use traditional and local methods, which were application of turmeric powder and shrubs to cure dog bites rather than seeking medical facilities.

Conclusion:

There is a strong need for rabies awareness programs in the community targeting females, school, and college-level students, older age groups, and economically marginalized communities. The awareness materials need to focus on particular topics such as the risk of rabies, modes of transmission, the importance of first aid, health-seeking behavior following dog bite injuries, and practice preventive measures for their pets and community dogs.

Findings from the initial Stepwise Approach to Rabies Elimination (SARE) Assessment in China, 2019

In 2015, China and other member states of the United Nations adopted the goal of eliminating dog-mediated rabies by 2030. China has made substantial progress in reducing dog-mediated human rabies since peaking with more than 3,300 reported cases in 2007. To further improve coordination and planning, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, in collaboration with the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, conducted a Stepwise Approach towards Rabies Elimination (SARE) assessment in March 2019. Assessment goals included outlining progress and identifying activities critical for eliminating dog-mediated rabies. Participants representing national, provincial and local human and animal health sectors in China used the SARE assessment tool to answer 115 questions about the current dog-mediated rabies control and prevention programs in China. The established surveillance system for human rabies cases and availability of post-exposure prophylaxis were identified as strengths. Low dog vaccination coverage and limited laboratory confirmation of rabid dogs were identified gaps, resulting in an overall score of 1.5 on a scale of 0 to 5. Participants outlined steps to increase cross-sectoral information sharing, improve surveillance for dog rabies, increase dog vaccination coverage, and increase laboratory capacity to diagnose rabies at the provincial level. All assessment participants committed to strengthening cross-sector collaboration using a One Health approach to achieve dog-mediated human rabies elimination by 2030.

Rabies is an acute zoonosis with a mortality rate of almost 100% following the onset of symptoms. In China, the increased access to post-exposure prophylaxis has substantially reduced the number of human rabies deaths. However, rabies continues to circulate in many rural parts of the country, resulting in hundreds of rabid dog-related exposures and deaths each year. In 2015, member states of the United Nations adopted the goal of eliminating dog-mediated rabies by 2030. We conducted a Stepwise Approach towards Rabies Elimination (SARE) assessment to outline progress and identify steps needed to achieve the elimination goal in China. The assessment involved representatives from the national and 12 selected provincial-level human and animal health sectors. The 12 provinces were purposefully selected based on the current dog-mediated rabies burden, an interest in participating, and the ability to complete the SARE assessment tool. This cross-sector–or One Health—approach was useful for improving coordination and planning. In particular, the assessment identified opportunities to improve collaboration between sectors on laboratory diagnostic capacity, implementing mass dog vaccination campaigns and conducting epidemiologic investigations on dog-mediated rabies exposures. An integrated One Health strategy should be strengthened in China as well as in other countries aiming to eliminate dog-mediated rabies.

Neglected challenges in the control of animal rabies in China

Complex rabies transmission dynamics, including in dogs, wildlife livestock, and human-acquired rabies, can be observed in China. A temporary decrease in human rabies deaths with a simultaneous increase in animal rabies transmission is a typical example of "sectoral management separation" but not of the recommended "one-health" concept. In contrast to reliance on mass dog vaccination, reliance on postexposure prophylaxis to reduce human rabies burden is costly and ineffective in the prevention of rabies transmission from dogs to humans and other susceptible animal species. To answer the WHO call for the "elimination of dog-mediated human rabies by 2030," China faces the challenge of a lack of a strong political commitment and a workable plan and must act now before the rabies transmission dynamics become increasingly complicated by spreading to other species, such as ferret badgers in the Southeast and raccoon dogs and foxes in the North.

Portable Rabies Virus Sequencing in Canine Rabies Endemic Countries Using the Oxford Nanopore MinION

As countries with endemic canine rabies progress towards elimination by 2030, it will become necessary to employ techniques to help plan, monitor, and confirm canine rabies elimination. Sequencing can provide critical information to inform control and vaccination strategies by identifying genetically distinct virus variants that may have different host reservoir species or geographic distributions. However, many rabies testing laboratories lack the resources or expertise for sequencing, especially in remote or rural areas where human rabies deaths are highest. We developed a low-cost, high throughput rabies virus sequencing method using the Oxford Nanopore MinION portable sequencer. A total of 259 sequences were generated from diverse rabies virus isolates in public health laboratories lacking rabies virus sequencing capacity in Guatemala, India, Kenya, and Vietnam. Phylogenetic analysis provided valuable insight into rabies virus diversity and distribution in these countries and identified a new rabies virus lineage in Kenya, the first published canine rabies virus sequence from Guatemala, evidence of rabies spread across an international border in Vietnam, and importation of a rabid dog into a state working to become rabies-free in India. Taken together, our evaluation highlights the MinION's potential for low-cost, high volume sequencing of pathogens in locations with limited resources.

The impact of anthropogenic and environmental factors on human rabies cases in China

Human rabies is a public health problem in Asia, especially in less-developed regions where the disease is under-reported because of a lack of epidemiological surveillance. To address this gap, we collected data on human rabies in Yunnan Province, China, between 2005 and 2016. Using statistical mapping techniques, we correlated the occurrence of human rabies to environmental (elevation, precipitation, normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI], temperature and distance to the nearest main rivers) and anthropogenic (human and dog population density, distance to the nearest main roads and gross domestic product [GDP]) factors. We used a performance score, the average area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (0.88), to validate our risk model. Using this model, we found that environmental factors were more strongly associated with human rabies occurrence than anthropogenic factors. Areas with elevation below 2000 metres, GDP per capita between $750 and $4500/year and NDVI below 0.07 were associated with greater risk of human rabies. Rabies control in China should specifically target these areas.

Canine distemper viral infection threatens the giant panda population in China

We evaluated exposure to canine distemper virus (CDV) in eight wild giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) and 125 unvaccinated domestic dogs living in and around Foping National Nature Reserve (FNNR), China. Seventy-two percent of unvaccinated domestic dogs (mixed breed) had neutralizing antibodies for CDV due to exposure to the disease. The eight wild giant pandas were naïve to CDV and carried no positive antibody titer. RT-PCR assays for hemagglutinin (H) gene confirmed the presence of CDV in 31 clinically ill dogs from several areas near FNNR. Genomic sequence analysis showed that the 21 canine CDV were highly homologous to each other and belonged to the Asian-1 genotype. They showed high homology with the GP01 strain sequenced from a fatally infected giant panda, suggesting cross-species infection. Observational and GPS tracking data revealed home range overlap in pandas and dogs around FNNR. This study shows that CDV is endemic in domestic dogs near FNNR and that cross-species CDV infection threatens the wild giant panda population.

Incidence of human rabies and characterization of rabies virus nucleoprotein gene in dogs in Fujian Province, Southeast China, 2002-2012

Background

Rabies is a global fatal infectious viral disease that is characterized by a high mortality after onset of clinical symptoms. Recently, there has been an increase in the incidence of rabies in China. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence of human rabies and characterize the rabies virus nucleoprotein gene in dogs sampled from Fujian Province, Southeast China from 2002 to 2012.

Methods

Data pertaining to human rabies cases in Fujian Province during the period from 2002 through 2012 were collected, and the epidemiological profiles were described. The saliva and brain specimens were collected from dogs in Quanzhou, Longyan and Sanming cities of the province, and the rabies virus antigen was determined in the canine saliva specimens using an ELISA assay. Rabies virus RNA was extracted from canine brain specimens, and rabies virus nucleoprotein gene was amplified using a nested RT-PCR assay, followed by sequencing and genotyping.

Results

A total of 226 human rabies cases were reported in Fujian Province from 2002 to 2012, in which 197 cases were detected in three cities of Quanzhou, Longyan and Sanming. ELISA assay revealed positive rabies virus antigen in six of eight rabid dogs and 165 of 3492 seemingly healthy dogs. The full-length gene fragment of the rabies virus nucleoprotein gene was amplified from the brain specimens of seven rabid dogs and 12 seemingly healthy dogs. Sequence alignment and phylogenetic analysis revealed that these 19 rabies virus nucleoprotein genes all belonged to genotype I, and were classified into three genetic groups. Sequencing analysis showed a 99.7% to 100% intra-group and an 86.4% to 89.3% inter-group homology.

Conclusions

This study is the first description pertaining to the epidemiological characteristics of human rabies cases and characterization of the rabies virus nucleoprotein gene in dogs in Fujian Province, Southeast China. Our findings may provide valuable knowledge for the development of strategies targeting the prevention and control of rabies.

Molecular characterization of atypical antigenic variants of canine rabies virus reveals its reintroduction by wildlife vectors in southeastern Mexico

Rabies is an infectious viral disease that is practically always fatal following the onset of clinical signs. In Mexico, the last case of human rabies transmitted by dogs was reported in 2006 and canine rabies has declined significantly due to vaccination campaigns implemented in the country. Here we report on the molecular characterization of six rabies virus strains found in Yucatan and Chiapas, remarkably, four of them showed an atypical reaction pattern when antigenic characterization with a reduced panel of eight monoclonal antibodies was performed. Phylogenetic analyses on the RNA sequences unveiled that the three atypical strains from Yucatan are associated with skunks. Analysis using the virus entire genome showed that they belong to a different lineage distinct from the variants described for this animal species in Mexico. The Chiapas atypical strain was grouped in a lineage that was considered extinct, while the others are clustered within classic dog variants.

Spatial Association of Canine Rabies Outbreak and Ecological Urban Corridors, Arequipa, Peru

In the city of Arequipa, Peru, a rabid dog was detected in March 2015, marking the reintroduction of the rabies virus in the area; more rabid dogs have been detected since then. The presence of free-roaming dogs in Arequipa seems to be higher in dry water channels, which are widespread in the city. We created a geographic information system (GIS) with surveillance data on the location of rabid dogs detected during the first year of the outbreak, as well as the water channels. We conducted a spatial analysis using Monte Carlo simulations to determine if detected rabid dogs were closer to the water channels than expected. Thirty rabid dogs were detected during the first year of the outbreak, and they were statistically associated with the water channels (average distance to closest water channel = 334 m; p-value = 0.027). Water channels might play a role in the ecology of free-roaming dog populations, functioning as ecological corridors. Landscape ecology could assist in understanding the impact of these urban structures on control activities and the persistence of transmission.

Modeling the transmission dynamics and control of rabies in China

Human rabies was first recorded in ancient China in about 556 BC and is still one of the major public-health problems in China. From 1950 to 2015, 130,494 human rabies cases were reported in Mainland China with an average of 1977 cases per year. It is estimated that 95% of these human rabies cases are due to dog bites. The purpose of this article is to provide a review about the models, results, and simulations that we have obtained recently on studying the transmission of rabies in China. We first construct a basic susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) type model for the spread of rabies virus among dogs and from dogs to humans and use the model to simulate the human rabies data in China from 1996 to 2010. Then we modify the basic model by including both domestic and stray dogs and apply the model to simulate the human rabies data from Guangdong Province, China. To study the seasonality of rabies, in Section 4 we further propose a SEIR model with periodic transmission rates and employ the model to simulate the monthly data of human rabies cases reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health from January 2004 to December 2010. To understand the spatial spread of rabies, in Section 5 we add diffusion to the dog population in the basic SEIR model to obtain a reaction-diffusion equation model and determine the minimum wave speed connecting the disease-free equilibrium to the endemic equilibrium. Finally, in order to investigate how the movement of dogs affects the geographically inter-provincial spread of rabies in Mainland China, in Section 6 we propose a multi-patch model to describe the transmission dynamics of rabies between dogs and humans and use the two-patch submodel to investigate the rabies virus clades lineages and to simulate the human rabies data from Guizhou and Guangxi, Hebei and Fujian, and Sichuan and Shaanxi, respectively. Some discussions are provided in Section 7.

Estimating the global burden of endemic canine rabies

BACKGROUND

Rabies is a notoriously underreported and neglected disease of low-income countries. This study aims to estimate the public health and economic burden of rabies circulating in domestic dog populations, globally and on a country-by-country basis, allowing an objective assessment of how much this preventable disease costs endemic countries.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We established relationships between rabies mortality and rabies prevention and control measures, which we incorporated into a model framework. We used data derived from extensive literature searches and questionnaires on disease incidence, control interventions and preventative measures within this framework to estimate the disease burden. The burden of rabies impacts on public health sector budgets, local communities and livestock economies, with the highest risk of rabies in the poorest regions of the world. This study estimates that globally canine rabies causes approximately 59,000 (95% Confidence Intervals: 25-159,000) human deaths, over 3.7 million (95% CIs: 1.6-10.4 million) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 8.6 billion USD (95% CIs: 2.9-21.5 billion) economic losses annually. The largest component of the economic burden is due to premature death (55%), followed by direct costs of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP, 20%) and lost income whilst seeking PEP (15.5%), with only limited costs to the veterinary sector due to dog vaccination (1.5%), and additional costs to communities from livestock losses (6%).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study demonstrates that investment in dog vaccination, the single most effective way of reducing the disease burden, has been inadequate and that the availability and affordability of PEP needs improving. Collaborative investments by medical and veterinary sectors could dramatically reduce the current large, and unnecessary, burden of rabies on affected communities. Improved surveillance is needed to reduce uncertainty in burden estimates and to monitor the impacts of control efforts.

A recombinant rabies virus expressing a phosphoprotein-eGFP fusion is rescued and applied to the rapid virus neutralization antibody assay

Rabies remains a worldwide concern, and dogs are a major vector for rabies virus (RABV) transmission. Vaccination is used in China to control the spread of rabies in dogs, a practice which necessitates effective, efficient, and high-throughput methods to confirm vaccination. The current rapid fluorescent focus inhibition test (RFFIT) method to measure virus-neutralizing antibody titers in the serum involves multiple steps, and more efficient methods are needed to match the increasing demand for this type of monitoring. In this study, based on the parental rRC-HL strain, a recombinant RABV rRV-eGFP expressing enhanced green fluorescent protein (eGFP) fused with RABV P protein was generated by a reverse genetic technique. The rRV-eGFP grew stably and successfully expressed P-eGFP fusion in Neuro-2A (NA) host cells. Furthermore, the P protein was shown to co-localize with eGFP in rRV-eGFP-infected NA cells. Since eGFP is easily detected in infected cells under a fluorescence microscope, rRV-eGFP could be used to establish a more rapid virus-neutralizing antibody titers assay based on RFFIT, designated as the RFFIT-eGFP method. From 69 canine serum samples, the RFFIT-eGFP method was shown to be as specific and as sensitive as the RFFIT method, suggesting that it might represent a faster tool than conventional RFFIT for measuring RABV virus-neutralizing antibody titers in canine sera without sacrificing accuracy.

Estimating the global burden of endemic canine rabies

BACKGROUND

Rabies is a notoriously underreported and neglected disease of low-income countries. This study aims to estimate the public health and economic burden of rabies circulating in domestic dog populations, globally and on a country-by-country basis, allowing an objective assessment of how much this preventable disease costs endemic countries.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We established relationships between rabies mortality and rabies prevention and control measures, which we incorporated into a model framework. We used data derived from extensive literature searches and questionnaires on disease incidence, control interventions and preventative measures within this framework to estimate the disease burden. The burden of rabies impacts on public health sector budgets, local communities and livestock economies, with the highest risk of rabies in the poorest regions of the world. This study estimates that globally canine rabies causes approximately 59,000 (95% Confidence Intervals: 25-159,000) human deaths, over 3.7 million (95% CIs: 1.6-10.4 million) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 8.6 billion USD (95% CIs: 2.9-21.5 billion) economic losses annually. The largest component of the economic burden is due to premature death (55%), followed by direct costs of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP, 20%) and lost income whilst seeking PEP (15.5%), with only limited costs to the veterinary sector due to dog vaccination (1.5%), and additional costs to communities from livestock losses (6%).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study demonstrates that investment in dog vaccination, the single most effective way of reducing the disease burden, has been inadequate and that the availability and affordability of PEP needs improving. Collaborative investments by medical and veterinary sectors could dramatically reduce the current large, and unnecessary, burden of rabies on affected communities. Improved surveillance is needed to reduce uncertainty in burden estimates and to monitor the impacts of control efforts.

The spatiotemporal expansion of human rabies and its probable explanation in mainland China, 2004-2013

BACKGROUND

Human rabies is a significant public health concern in mainland China. However, the neglect of rabies expansion and scarce analyses of the dynamics have made the spatiotemporal spread pattern of human rabies and its determinants being poorly understood.

METHODS

We collected geographic locations and timeline of reported human rabies cases, rabies sequences and socioeconomic variables for the years 2004-2013, and integrated multidisciplinary approaches, including epidemiological characterization, hotspots identification, risk factors analysis and phylogeographic inference, to explore the spread pattern of human rabies in mainland China during the last decade.

RESULTS

The results show that human rabies distribution and hotspots were expanding from southeastern regions to north or west regions, which could be associated with the evolution of the virus, especially the clade I-G. A Panel Poisson Regression analysis reveals that human rabies incidences had significant correlation with the education level, GDP per capita, temperature at one-month lag and canine rabies outbreak at two-month lag.

CONCLUSIONS

The reduction in the overall human rabies incidence was accompanied by a westward and northward expansion of the circulating region in mainland China. Higher risk of human rabies was associated with lower level of education and economic status. New clades of rabies, especial Clade I-G, played an important role in recent spread. Our findings provide valuable information for rabies control and prevention in the future.

Characterization of a virulent dog-originated rabies virus affecting more than twenty fallow deer (Dama dama) in Inner Mongolia, China

Rabies has emerged as a serious problem in the most recent years in northern China. A rabies virus (RABV) isolate, IMDRV-13, was recovered from brain samples of dog-bitten rabid fallow deer (Dama dama) in a farm in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia. We tested the susceptibility of mouse neuroblastoma (MNA) cells and BSR cells as well as that of adult mice to IMDRV-13. The isolate was found to be a virulent isolate with an equivalent pathogenicity index (0.12) and a slight lower neurotropism index (1.07) compared with those of challenge virus standard, CVS-24, which was 0.13 and 1.23, respectively. The complete genome of IMDRV-13 was determined subsequently and found to be 11,924 nucleotides (nt) in length with the same genomic organization as other RABVs. Phylogenetic tree based on complete genome sequences of 43 RABV isolates and strains indicated that IMDRV-13, along with other two isolates in Inner Mongolia, CNM1101C and CNM1104D, clustered within the dog-associated China I clade, which is also the dominant lineage in the current rabies epidemic in China. In addition, sequence analysis of the glycoprotein G identified an amino acid substitution (I338→T338) unique to the IMDRV-13 within antigenic sites III (330-338), this mutation also leads to an additional potential N-glycosylation site (N336), which may represent a useful model to study relationship of N-glycosylation in G protein and specific properties such as pathogenicity or host adaption of RABV.

Emerging and reemerging neglected tropical diseases: a review of key characteristics, risk factors, and the policy and innovation environment

In global health, critical challenges have arisen from infectious diseases, including the emergence and reemergence of old and new infectious diseases. Emergence and reemergence are accelerated by rapid human development, including numerous changes in demographics, populations, and the environment. This has also led to zoonoses in the changing human-animal ecosystem, which are impacted by a growing globalized society where pathogens do not recognize geopolitical borders. Within this context, neglected tropical infectious diseases have historically lacked adequate attention in international public health efforts, leading to insufficient prevention and treatment options. This subset of 17 infectious tropical diseases disproportionately impacts the world's poorest, represents a significant and underappreciated global disease burden, and is a major barrier to development efforts to alleviate poverty and improve human health. Neglected tropical diseases that are also categorized as emerging or reemerging infectious diseases are an even more serious threat and have not been adequately examined or discussed in terms of their unique risk characteristics. This review sets out to identify emerging and reemerging neglected tropical diseases and explore the policy and innovation environment that could hamper or enable control efforts. Through this examination, we hope to raise awareness and guide potential approaches to addressing this global health concern.

Rabies and rabies virus in wildlife in mainland China, 1990-2013

The number of wildlife rabies and wildlife-associated human and livestock rabies cases has increased in recent years, particularly in the southeast and northeast regions of mainland China. To better understand wildlife rabies and its role in human and livestock rabies, we reviewed what is known about wildlife rabies from the 1990s to 2013 in mainland China. In addition, the genetic diversity and phylogeny of available wildlife-originated rabies viruses (RABVs) were analyzed. Several wildlife species carry rabies including the bat, Chinese ferret badger, raccoon dog, rat, fox, and wolf. RABVs have been isolated or detected in the bat, Chinese ferret badger, raccoon dog, Apodemus, deer, and vole. Among them, the bat, Chinese ferret badger, and raccoon dog may play a role in the ecology of lyssaviruses in mainland China. All wildlife-originated RABVs were found to belong to genotype 1 RABV except for a bat-originated Irkut virus isolated in 2012. Several substitutions were found between the glycoprotein of wildlife-originated RABVs and vaccine strains. Whether these substitutions could affect the efficacy of currently used vaccines against infections caused by these wildlife-originated RABVs needs to be investigated further. Phylogenetic analysis showed that RABVs in the bat, Chinese ferret badger, and raccoon dog were distinct from local dog-originated RABVs, and almost all collected wildlife-originated isolates were associated with older China clades II to V, suggesting the possibility of wildlife reservoirs in mainland China through the ages.

Major emerging and re-emerging zoonoses in China: a matter of global health and socioeconomic development for 1.3 billion

Emerging and re-emerging zoonoses are a significant public health concern and cause considerable socioeconomic problems globally. The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1, avian influenza H7N9, and severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), and the re-emergence of rabies, brucellosis, and other zoonoses have had a significant effect on the national economy and public health in China, and have affected other countries. Contributing factors that continue to affect emerging and re-emerging zoonoses in China include social and environmental factors and microbial evolution, such as population growth, urbanization, deforestation, livestock production, food safety, climate change, and pathogen mutation. The Chinese government has devised new strategies and has taken measures to deal with the challenges of these diseases, including the issuing of laws and regulations, establishment of disease reporting systems, implementation of special projects for major infectious diseases, interdisciplinary and international cooperation, exotic disease surveillance, and health education. These strategies and measures can serve as models for the surveillance and response to continuing threats from emerging and re-emerging zoonoses in other countries.

Early diagnosis of Irkut virus infection using magnetic bead-based serum peptide profiling by MALDI-TOF MS in a mouse model

Early diagnosis is important for the prompt post-exposure prophylaxis of lyssavirus infections. To diagnose Irkut virus (IRKV) infection during incubation in mice, a novel method using magnetic bead-based serum peptide profiling by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) has been established. For this test, serum peptides were concentrated by adsorption to and elution from the magnetic bead-based weak cation ion exchanger. Mass spectrograms obtained by MALDI-TOF MS were analyzed using ClinProTools bioinformatics software. Construction of the diagnostic model was performed using serum samples from mice infected with IRKV and rabies virus (RABV) BD06, Flury-LEP, and SRV₉ (as controls). The method accurately diagnosed sera 2, 4 and 8 days after IRKV and RABV infections. The sensitivity, specificity, and total accuracy of diagnosis were 86.7%, 95.2%, and 92.9%, respectively. However, IRKV could not be differentiated from RABV 1 day after infection. The results of the present study indicate that serum peptide profiling by MALDI-TOF MS is a promising technique for the early clinical diagnosis of lyssavirus infections and needs to be further tested in humans and farm animals.

Ginsenoside Re as an adjuvant to enhance the immune response to the inactivated rabies virus vaccine in mice

The inactivated rabies virus vaccine (RV) is a relatively expensive vaccine, prone to failure in some cases. Ginsenoside Re (Re) is a saponin isolated from Panax ginseng, and has an adjuvant property. Here the adjuvant effect of Re to improve the immune response to the RV is evaluated in mice. ICR mice were immunized with saline, 2.50mg/kg Re, 20μl RV, 100μl RV, or 20μl of RV adjuvanted with Re (1.25, 2.50 or 5.00mg/kg). Different time points after boosting, we measured serum antibodies in blood samples and separated splenocytes to detect lymphocyte proliferation and the production of IL-4, IL-10, IL-12, and IFN-γ in vitro. We also compared immunizations containing 20μl RV and 20μl RV adjuvanted with Re (5.00mg/kg) for the expression of CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cell subsets at different time points. Results indicated that co-administration of Re significantly enhanced serum antibody titers, increased the CD4(+):CD8(+) ratio, and enhanced both proliferation responses and IL-4, IL-10, IL-12 and IFN-γ secretions. Both Th1 and Th2 immune responses were activated. The supplementation of the Re (5.00mg/kg) to 20μl of RV significantly amplified serum antibody responses and Th1/Th2 responses inducing similar protection as did 100μl of RV. This suggests that Re could be used to reduce the dose, and therefore the cost, of the RV to achieve the same effective protection. Re merits further studies for use with vaccines of mixed Th1/Th2 immune responses.

Fertility control in wildlife: review of current status, including novel and future technologies

Overpopulation of selected groups of animals is widely recognised as an issue that can have adverse effects on several current global problems, such as animal and human health, conservation and environmental changes. This review will, therefore, focus on recent novel contraception together with future technologies that may provide additional contraceptive methods.

Challenges and needs for China to eliminate rabies

In China, rabies is a significant public health concern where dogs remain the main reservoir of disease transmission to humans; rabies-related mortality ranks second in the world.We compiled all published articles and official documents on rabies in mainland China to examine challenges and needs to eliminate rabies in the country. The Chinese authorities have identified rabies as a priority, recognized rabies control in dogs as key to control rabies in humans and required intersectoral collaborations. Efforts have been made to respond effectively to the latest re-emergence of rabies, which peaked in 2007 with >3,300 cases. Despite these outcomes and the increasing volume of publications and regulations in the recent years, our review points to some major information gaps to improve rabies control activities and envisage elimination program. An emphasis on laboratory or pathogen-associated and basic epidemiology research in the literature has contrasted with the absence of information to monitor various systems in humans and animals (e.g. quality of surveillance, response and post-exposure prophylaxis). Information is also lacking to appropriately inform policymakers (e.g. economic disease burden, impact of policies) and assist program managers (e.g. comprehensive and strategic guidance for cost-effective prevention and control activities, public education and dog population management).In conclusion, strategic planning is needed to provide a sense of direction, demonstrate feasibility of elimination in China, and develop a research agenda, addressing country's operational needs and constraints. The planning should be a multisectoral effort.

Geographical analysis of the distribution and spread of human rabies in china from 2005 to 2011

Background

Rabies is a significant public health problem in China in that it records the second highest case incidence globally. Surveillance data on canine rabies in China is lacking and human rabies notifications can be a useful indicator of areas where animal and human rabies control could be integrated. Previous spatial epidemiological studies lacked adequate spatial resolution to inform targeted rabies control decisions. We aimed to describe the spatiotemporal distribution of human rabies and model its geographical spread to provide an evidence base to inform future integrated rabies control strategies in China.

Methods

We geo-referenced a total of 17,760 human rabies cases of China from 2005 to 2011. In our spatial analyses we used Gaussian kernel density analysis, average nearest neighbor distance, Spatial Temporal Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise and developed a model of rabies spatiotemporal spread.

Findings

Human rabies cases increased from 2005 to 2007 and decreased during 2008 to 2011 companying change of the spatial distribution. The ANN distance among human rabies cases increased between 2005 and 2011, and the degree of clustering of human rabies cases decreased during that period. A total 480 clusters were detected by ST-DBSCAN, 89.4% clusters initiated before 2007. Most of clusters were mainly found in South of China. The number and duration of cluster decreased significantly after 2008. Areas with the highest density of human rabies cases varied spatially each year and in some areas remained with high outbreak density for several years. Though few places have recovered from human rabies, most of affected places are still suffering from the disease.

Conclusion

Human rabies in mainland China is geographically clustered and its spatial extent changed during 2005 to 2011. The results provide a scientific basis for public health authorities in China to improve human rabies control and prevention program.

Review of rabies epidemiology and control in South, South East and East Asia: past, present and prospects for elimination

Rabies is a serious public health problem in Asia. It causes substantial animal welfare, economic and human health impacts, with approximately 39,000 human deaths each year. Domestic dogs are the main reservoir and source of rabies in Asia. Common constraints for the control of rabies in the countries of Asia include inadequate resources; lack of political commitment to control programs; lack of consensus on strategy; weak intersectoral coordination and inadequate management structure; insensitive surveillance systems; limited accessibility to modern rabies vaccine and supply problems; lack of public awareness and public cooperation; and the existence of myths and religious issues. In this review, we summarize the epidemiology of rabies in both human and animals in each South and South East Asian country, the past and current approaches to control and the prospect for rabies elimination. We conclude that defining the cost of rabies to society and communicating this to decisionmakers might be the key to achieving such an advance.

Adaptation of a Chinese ferret badger strain of rabies virus to high-titered growth in BHK-21 cells for canine vaccine development

Rabies virus strain JX08-45CC was derived from a Chinese isolate (JX08-45) by serial passage in the BHK-21 cell line, reaching a titer of 10(8) TCID(50)/mL. JX08-45CC produced rabies in adult mice but was nonpathogenic in dogs after intramuscular injection. A comparison of the entire genomes of JX08-45 and JX08-45CC led to the identification of 17 nucleotide substitutions, resulting in seven amino acid changes in the mature G and L proteins. The immunogenicity of β-propiolactone-inactivated JX08-45CC was similar to the immunogenicity of the live vaccine strains widely used in China. The inactivated vaccine induced antibody responses for more than 6 months and provided full protection from an intramuscular challenge in dogs. JX08-45CC has excellent potential for development as an inactivated vaccine for dogs in China.

A semi-quantitative serological method to assess the potency of inactivated rabies vaccine for veterinary use

Potency is one of the most important indexes of inactivated vaccines. A number of methods have been established to assay the potency, of which the NIH test and single-dose mouse protection test are the "prescribed methods". Here, we report a method to semi-quantitatively assay the potency of an inactivated rabies vaccine, which uses fewer animals and takes less time to complete. Depending on the quality requirements of a vaccine (e.g. minimum potency), a rabies reference vaccine is, for example, diluted to the minimum potency, and 50 μL of the dilution is taken to inoculate 10 mice. The same amount of the test rabies vaccine is inoculated into another 10 mice. After two weeks, all mice are bled and serum samples are assayed for viral neutralizing antibody by the fluorescent antibody virus neutralization (FAVN) test. By comparing the median and interquartile range of antibody titers of the reference vaccine with those of the test vaccine, the test vaccine potency can be semi-quantitatively judged as to whether it is in accord with the required quality. The reliability of this method was also confirmed in dogs. The procedure can be recommended for batch potency testing during inactivated rabies vaccine production.

Anthropogenic and environmental risk factors for rabies occurrence in Bhutan

Anthropogenic and environmental factors were assessed as predictors of sub-districts in Bhutan that reported rabies in domestic animals during the period 1996-2009. Rabies surveillance data were retrieved from the Veterinary Information System database. Anthropogenic and environmental information were obtained from public data sources. Using the total number of rabies cases reported in domestic animals, the 205 sub-districts of Bhutan were categorized as those sub-districts that reported rabies and those that did not report rabies (n=146). Logistic regression models were fit to the data and odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated. Sub-districts that share a border with India (OR 10.43; 95% CI: 4.42-24.64; P<0.001); sub-districts connected by major roads (OR 3.09; 95% CI: 1.24-7.68; P=0.015); and greater human population density (OR 3.26; 95% CI: 1.48-7.21, P=0.003) were significantly associated with a sub-district reporting animal rabies in Bhutan during 1996-2009. Results suggest that human population characteristics play an important role in rabies occurrence.

The spatial and temporal dynamics of rabies in China

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Recent years have seen a rapid increase in the number of rabies cases in China and an expansion in the geographic distribution of the virus. In spite of the seriousness of the outbreak and increasing number of fatalities, little is known about the phylogeography of the disease in China. In this study, we report an analysis of a set of Nucleocapsid sequences consisting of samples collected through the trial Chinese National Surveillance System as well as publicly available sequences. This sequence set represents the most comprehensive dataset from China to date, comprising 210 sequences (including 57 new samples) from 15 provinces and covering all epidemic regions. Using this dataset we investigated genetic diversity, patterns of distribution, and evolutionary history.

RESULTS

Our analysis indicates that the rabies virus in China is primarily defined by two clades that exhibit distinct population subdivision and translocation patterns and that contributed to the epidemic in different ways. The younger clade originated around 1992 and has properties that closely match the observed spread of the recent epidemic. The older clade originated around 1960 and has a dispersion pattern that suggests it represents a strain associated with a previous outbreak that remained at low levels throughout the country and reemerged in the current epidemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide new insight into factors associated with the recent epidemic and are relevant to determining an effective policy for controlling the virus.

Assessment of inactivated human rabies vaccines: biochemical characterization and genetic identification of virus strains

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the periodic evaluation of the purity of the cell lines used in the production of rabies vaccines, as well as the antigenic identity of the virus strains. Here, we analyzed seventeen marketed inactivated human rabies virus vaccines for viral and non-viral proteins by SDS-PAGE and Coomassie/silver staining. Mass spectrometric analysis of an abundant 60-70 kDa signal indicated that in most vaccines serum albumin of human origin (HSA) was the major component. Quantification of HSA in the vaccines revealed a mean concentration of 22 mg HSA/dose in all tested PVRV (purified vero cell rabies vaccine), HDCV (human diploid cell rabies vaccine) and PHK (primary hamster kidney) vaccines. In contrast, 1000-fold lower HSA levels and no HSA were detected in PCECV (purified chick embryo cell-culture vaccine) and PDEV (duck embryo rabies vaccine), respectively. Western blot analyses further confirmed a high bias in the HSA content, whereas the virus protein levels were rather similar in all tested vaccines. In addition, the vaccine viruses were sequenced within the N- and G-genes to identify the strain. In the majority of sequenced vaccines, the declared vaccine strain was confirmed. However, some discrepancies in the genetic identification were observed, supporting WHO's recommendation for the molecular characterization of vaccine seed strains. This research highlights the variation in purity found between different human rabies virus vaccines, and suggests that further research is needed to establish the impact non-active components have on the potency of such vaccines.

Dynamics of rabies epidemics and the impact of control efforts in Guangdong Province, China

Rabies is a major public health problem in some developing countries including China. One of the reasons is that there is a very large number of dogs, both domestic and stray, especially in Guangdong Province which has the third most rabies cases (after Guangxi and Hunan) among the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in Mainland China, and at least 18.2% of the human rabies cases are caused by stray dogs. In this paper, based on the reported data and characteristics of the rabies infection in Guangdong Province, we propose a mathematical model for the dog-human transmission of rabies. We first determine the basic reproduction number R₀ and discuss the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and persistence of the disease. By carrying out sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number in terms of some parameters, we find that the domestic dog vaccination rate, the recruitment rate of domestic dogs, and the quantity of stray dogs play important roles in the transmission of rabies. This study suggests that rabies control and prevention strategies should include public education and awareness about rabies, increase of the domestic dog vaccination rate and reduction of the stray dog population.

The ecology, genetic diversity, and phylogeny of Huaiyangshan virus in China

Surveys were carried out to better understand the tick vector ecology and genetic diversity of Huaiyangshan virus (HYSV) in both regions of endemicity and regions of nonendemicity. Haemaphysalis longicornis ticks were dominant in regions of endemicity, while Rhipicephalus microplus is more abundant in regions of nonendemicity. HYSV RNA was found in human and both tick species, with greater prevalence in H. longicornis and lesser prevalence in R. microplus. Phylogenetic analyses indicate that HYSV is a novel species of the genus Phlebovirus.

Vaccine shortages and suspect online pharmacy sellers

Vaccines represent half the products on the FDA Biologics Product Shortages list. As a result, providers and patients may purchase them online, a process rife with patient safety risks. We examined vaccine online availability by assessing up to 5 identified online sellers. We determined if sites were accredited by the National Association of Boards of Pharmacy (NABP) VIPPS program, listed as US or international, employed social media linking to suspect online pharmacies, and if they were on the NABP Not Recommended list. All vaccines were advertised by online pharmacies and through data aggregation and social media sites, none were VIPPS-accredited, and most were on the NABP Not Recommended list. We found some online sellers advertising vaccines as over-the-counter. We extended our analysis to WHO Essential Medicines List vaccines and found all are also available online from suspect, non-VIPPS accredited sellers. Stakeholders should be aware of these online patient safety dangers.

Molecular phylogenetics of the lyssaviruses--insights from a coalescent approach

Technical improvements over the past 2 decades have enormously facilitated the generation of nucleotide sequence data for lyssavirus collections. These databases are amenable to methods of phylogenetic analysis, which attempt to define the taxonomic structure of this genus and predict the evolutionary relationships of current circulating strains. Coupled with a range of mathematical tools to explore the appropriateness of nucleotide substitution models and test for positive selection, the evolutionary process is being explored in detail. Despite the potential for high viral mutation levels, the operation of purifying selection appears to effectively constrain lyssavirus evolution. The recent development of coalescent theory has provided additional approaches to data analysis whereby the time frame of emergence of viral lineages can be most reliably estimated. Such studies suggest that all currently circulating rabies viruses have emerged within the past 1500 years. Moreover, through the capability of analyzing viral population dynamics and determining patterns of population size variation, coalescent approaches can provide insight into the demographics of viral outbreaks. Whereas human-assisted movement of reservoir host species has clearly facilitated transfer of rabies between continents, topographical landscape features significantly influence the rate and extent of contiguous disease spread. Together with empirical studies on virus diversity, the application of coalescent approaches will help to better understand lyssavirus emergence, evolution, and spread. In particular, such methods are presently facilitating exploration of the factors operating to limit the ability of lyssaviruses to establish new persistent virus-host associations and ultimately control the emergence of new species of this genus.

Three dimensional morphology of rabies virus studied by cryo-electron tomography

The rabies virus (RABV) continues to be a worldwide health problem. RABV contains a single-stranded RNA genome that associates with the nucleoprotein N. The resulting ribonucleoprotein complex is surrounded by matrix protein M, lipid bilayer and glycoprotein G. RABV was reported to organize in bullet-like virions, but the role of each viral component in adopting this morphology is unclear. We present here a cryo-electron tomography study of RABV showing additional morphologies consisting in bullet-like virions containing a tubular, lipidic appendage having G-protein at its apex. In addition, there was evidence for an important fraction of pleomorphic particles. These pleomorphic forms differed in the amount of membrane-associated M-, M/N-protein providing interesting insight into its role in viral morphogenesis. In the absence of membrane-associated M-, M/N-protein viral morphology was almost spherical. Other images, showing straight membrane portions, correlate with the M-protein recruitment at the membrane independently of the presence of the G-protein. The viral membrane was found to contain a negative net charge indicating that M-, M/N-protein-membrane charge attraction drives this interaction.

Analysis of rabies in China: transmission dynamics and control

Human rabies is one of the major public-health problems in China. The number of human rabies cases has increased dramatically in the last 15 years, partially due to the poor understanding of the transmission dynamics of rabies and the lack of effective control measures of the disease. In this article, in order to explore effective control and prevention measures we propose a deterministic model to study the transmission dynamics of rabies in China. The model consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The model simulations agree with the human rabies data reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health. We estimate that the basic reproduction number for the rabies transmission in China and predict that the number of the human rabies is decreasing but may reach another peak around 2030. We also perform some sensitivity analysis of in terms of the model parameters and compare the effects of culling and immunization of dogs. Our study demonstrates that (i) reducing dog birth rate and increasing dog immunization coverage rate are the most effective methods for controlling rabies in China; and (ii) large scale culling of susceptible dogs can be replaced by immunization of them.

Patterns of rabies occurrence in Bhutan between 1996 and 2009

This study was conducted to evaluate incidence and seasonal trends of rabies in dogs and other domestic animals in Bhutan from 1996 to 2009. Time series analysis approach was used to determine the seasonal trend and temporal association between species-specific rabies cases in animals. A total of 814 rabies cases were reported during the 14-year period, of which cattle and domestic dogs accounted for 55% (447/814) and 39% (317/814) of the cases, respectively. The remaining 6% of the cases (50/814) were reported in horses (2%), cats (2%), pigs (1%) and goats (1%). Rabies cases were reported throughout the year with more reports during spring and summer months. The annual patterns of cases were stable from 1996 to 2005, but the incidence increased during 2006 and 2008. Fifty-nine of the 205 sub-districts reported rabies in animals from 1996 to 2009 with increased incidences in the four districts in southern Bhutan, an area located close to the border towns of India. A significant (P < 0.05) positive cross-correlation was observed between the number of cases in dogs and other domestic animals at time lags (months) 1-3 with the highest correlation (r = 0.94, P < 0.05) observed at time lag 0 (same month) indicating that the peak in rabies incidences occur in the same month when both dogs and other domestic animal cases are reported. Regression analysis predicted rabies in other domestic animal when there are reports of rabies in dogs during the previous months. This study provides useful information about the epidemiology of rabies that can be used to plan a rabies control programme in Bhutan.