Mortality Rates during Cholera Epidemic, Haiti, 2010-2011

Cholera rages in Africa and the Middle East: A narrative review on challenges and solutions

Background and Aim

Cholera is a life-threatening infectious disease that is still one of the most common acute watery diarrheal diseases in the world today. Acute diarrhea and severe dehydration brought on by cholera can cause hypovolemic shock, which can be fatal in minutes. Without competent clinical therapy, the rate of case fatality surpasses 50%. The purpose of this review was to highlight cholera challenges in Africa and the Middle East and explain the reasons for why this region is currently a fertile environment for cholera. We investigated cholera serology, epidemiology, and the geographical distribution of cholera in Africa and the Middle East in 2022 and 2023. We reviewed detection methods, such as rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), and treatments, such as antibiotics and phage therapy. Finally, this review explored oral cholera vaccines (OCVs), and the vaccine shortage crisis.

Methods

We carried out a systematic search in multiple databases, including PubMed, Web of Science, Google Scholar, Scopus, MEDLINE, and Embase, for studies on cholera using the following keywords: ((Cholera) OR (Vibrio cholera) and (Coronavirus) OR (COVID-19) OR (SARS-CoV2) OR (The Middle East) OR (Africa)).

Results and Conclusions

Cholera outbreaks have increased dramatically, mainly in Africa and many Middle Eastern countries. The COVID-19 pandemic has reduced the attention devoted to cholera and disrupted diagnosis and treatment services, as well as vaccination initiatives. Most of the cholera cases in Africa and the Middle East were reported in Malawi and Syria, respectively, in 2022. RDTs are effective in the early detection of cholera epidemics, especially with limited advanced resources, which is the case in much of Africa. By offering both direct and indirect protection, expanding the use of OCV will significantly reduce the burden of current cholera outbreaks in Africa and the Middle East.

Cholera Deaths During Outbreaks in Uvira, Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, 10-35 Months After Mass Vaccination

Our understanding of the burden and drivers of cholera mortality is hampered by limited surveillance and confirmation capacity. Leveraging enhanced clinical and laboratory surveillance in the cholera-endemic community of Uvira, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, we describe cholera deaths across 3 epidemics between September 2021 and September 2023 following mass vaccination.

Excess mortality in northern Haiti during the 2010 cholera epidemic

In the course of infectious disease outbreaks, barriers to accessing health care can contribute to preventable mortality. According to the Ministry of Health of Haiti (Ministère de la Santé Publique et de la Population [MSPP]), the 2010 cholera epidemic caused 7,936 deaths from October 2010 to December 2012 in Haiti alone. We seek to quantify the excess mortality attributable to patients not seeking care during the cholera outbreak in the Nord Department in 2010-2012. Using data from a community-based retrospective survey conducted by Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières [MSF]) in Northern Haiti, we used logistic regression to examine the association between healthcare utilization and fatality among household members with watery diarrhea in the Communes of Borgne, Pilate, Plaisance, and Port-Margot in the Nord Department. We found that failing to seek care resulted in a 5-fold increase in the case fatality ratio among infected individuals (26%) versus those who sought care (5%). Common concerns noted for why care was not sought included travel distance to treatment centers, not attributing watery diarrhea episodes to cholera, and being unsure where to seek health care for their watery diarrhea episodes within their Communes. In conclusion, addressing transportation and information needs could increase healthcare utilization and reduce lives lost during an outbreak.

Pharmacological Management of Cholera: A Century of Expert Opinions in Cecil Textbook of Medicine

BACKGROUND

Cholera is a potentially lethal diarrheal disease produced by Vibrio cholerae serotypes O1 El Tor and O139. Known since antiquity, the condition causes epidemics in many areas, particularly in Asia, Africa, and South America. Left untreated, the mortality may reach 50%. The crucial therapeutic intervention is intravenous or oral rehydration and correction of acidosis, dyselectrolytemia, and renal impairment. Antibiotic use represents the main pharmacological intervention.

STUDY QUESTION

What are the milestones of the antibiotics use recommended by experts for the pharmacological management of cholera in the past century?

STUDY DESIGN

To determine the changes in the experts' approach to the management of cholera and particularly the use of antibiotics as presented in a widely used textbook in the United States.

DATA SOURCES

The chapters describing the management of cholera in the 26 editions of Cecil Textbook of Medicine published from 1927 through 2020.

RESULTS

Sulfonamides were recommended in 1947, followed by the introduction of tetracyclines, chloramphenicol, and furazolidone in 1955. The options were restricted in 2000 to doxycycline. In the past decade, patients infected with strains known to have a degree a resistance to tetracyclines were treated with azithromycin or ciprofloxacin. Antibiotic use decreases the volume of stool and the duration of diarrhea but has not been considered lifesaving. Drugs with antimotility, antiemetic, or antisecretory properties are not useful.

CONCLUSIONS

The utility of antibiotic use in cholera has been endorsed by experts, but only as an adjunct to rapid and complete fluid and electrolyte replacement.

Estimating the proportion of clinically suspected cholera cases that are true Vibrio cholerae infections: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Cholera surveillance relies on clinical diagnosis of acute watery diarrhea. Suspected cholera case definitions have high sensitivity but low specificity, challenging our ability to characterize cholera burden and epidemiology. Our objective was to estimate the proportion of clinically suspected cholera that are true Vibrio cholerae infections and identify factors that explain variation in positivity.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a systematic review of studies that tested ≥10 suspected cholera cases for V. cholerae O1/O139 using culture, PCR, and/or a rapid diagnostic test. We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Google Scholar for studies that sampled at least one suspected case between January 1, 2000 and April 19, 2023, to reflect contemporary patterns in V. cholerae positivity. We estimated diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity using a latent class meta-analysis. We estimated V. cholerae positivity using a random-effects meta-analysis, adjusting for test performance. We included 119 studies from 30 countries. V. cholerae positivity was lower in studies with representative sampling and in studies that set minimum ages in suspected case definitions. After adjusting for test performance, on average, 52% (95% credible interval (CrI): 24%, 80%) of suspected cases represented true V. cholerae infections. After adjusting for test performance and study methodology, the odds of a suspected case having a true infection were 5.71 (odds ratio 95% CrI: 1.53, 15.43) times higher when surveillance was initiated in response to an outbreak than in non-outbreak settings. Variation across studies was high, and a limitation of our approach was that we were unable to explain all the heterogeneity with study-level attributes, including diagnostic test used, setting, and case definitions.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that burden estimates based on suspected cases alone may overestimate the incidence of medically attended cholera by 2-fold. However, accounting for cases missed by traditional clinical surveillance is key to unbiased cholera burden estimates. Given the substantial variability in positivity between settings, extrapolations from suspected to confirmed cases, which is necessary to estimate cholera incidence rates without exhaustive testing, should be based on local data.

Seroprevalence of Vibrio cholerae in Adults, Haiti, 2017

In Haiti in 2017, the prevalence of serum vibriocidal antibody titers against Vibrio cholerae serogroup O1 among adults was 12.4% in Cerca-la-Source and 9.54% in Mirebalais, suggesting a high recent prevalence of infection. Improved surveillance programs to monitor cholera and guide public health interventions in Haiti are necessary.

Reports of deaths are an exaggeration: all-cause and NAA-test-conditional mortality in Germany during the SARS-CoV-2 era

Counts of SARS-CoV-2-related deaths have been key numbers for justifying severe political, social and economical measures imposed by authorities world-wide. A particular focus thereby was the concomitant excess mortality (EM), i.e. fatalities above the expected all-cause mortality (AM). Recent studies, inter alia by the WHO, estimated the SARS-CoV-2-related EM in Germany between 2020 and 2021 as high as 200 000. In this study, we attempt to scrutinize these numbers by putting them into the context of German AM since the year 2000. We propose two straightforward, age-cohort-dependent models to estimate German AM for the 'Corona pandemic' years, as well as the corresponding flu seasons, out of historic data. For Germany, we find overall negative EM of about -18 500 persons for the year 2020, and a minor positive EM of about 7000 for 2021, unveiling that officially reported EM counts are an exaggeration. In 2022, the EM count is about 41 200. Further, based on NAA-test-positive related death counts, we are able to estimate how many Germans have died due to rather than with CoViD-19; an analysis not provided by the appropriate authority, the RKI. Through 2020 and 2021 combined, our due estimate is at no more than 59 500. Varying NAA test strategies heavily obscured SARS-CoV-2-related EM, particularly within the second year of the proclaimed pandemic. We compensated changes in test strategies by assuming that age-cohort-specific NAA-conditional mortality rates during the first pandemic year reflected SARS-CoV-2-characteristic constants.

Cholera in Haiti

The cholera epidemic that hit Haiti from October 2010 to February 2019 was the world's deadliest of the last 25 years. Officially, the successive waves caused 9789 deaths, although numerous additional casualties could not be recorded. The origin of this epidemic has been the subject of a controversy involving two opposing theories. The first hypothesis, put forward by renowned American academics, was that the cholera epidemic originated from the environment, due to the proliferation and transmission of aquatic Vibrio cholerae bacteria driven by a confluence of circumstances, i.e., the earthquake followed by a hot summer and, ultimately, heavy rainfall and flooding. The alternative hypothesis, which was subsequently confirmed by epidemiological and genomic studies, attributed the epidemic to the recent importation of cholera by UN peacekeepers having recently arriving from Nepal, and to a river polluted with sewage. In late 2016, the Secretary General of the United Nations finally begged the Haitian people for forgiveness. This implicit recognition of the role of the UN in the cholera epidemic helped to fund the ongoing fight against it. Case-area targeted interventions aimed at interrupting cholera transmission were reinforced, which resulted in the extinction of the epidemic within two years. In the meantime, several phylogenetic studies on Vibrio cholerae during the seventh cholera pandemic demonstrated that local environmental and global epidemic Vibrio populations were distinct. These studies also showed that epidemics arose when the bacterium had diversified and that it had spread during transmission events associated with human travel.

Cholera

Cholera was first described in the areas around the Bay of Bengal and spread globally, resulting in seven pandemics during the past two centuries. It is caused by toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1 or O139 bacteria. Cholera is characterised by mild to potentially fatal acute watery diarrhoeal disease. Prompt rehydration therapy is the cornerstone of management. We present an overview of cholera and its pathogenesis, natural history, bacteriology, and epidemiology, while highlighting advances over the past 10 years in molecular epidemiology, immunology, and vaccine development and deployment. Since 2014, the Global Task Force on Cholera Control, a WHO coordinated network of partners, has been working with several countries to develop national cholera control strategies. The global roadmap for cholera control focuses on stopping transmission in cholera hotspots through vaccination and improved water, sanitation, and hygiene, with the aim to reduce cholera deaths by 90% and eliminate local transmission in at least 20 countries by 2030.

Impact of a human gut microbe on Vibrio cholerae host colonization through biofilm enhancement

Recent studies indicate that the human intestinal microbiota could impact the outcome of infection by Vibrio cholerae, the etiological agent of the diarrheal disease cholera. A commensal bacterium, Paracoccus aminovorans, was previously identified in high abundance in stool collected from individuals infected with V. cholerae when compared to stool from uninfected persons. However, if and how P. aminovorans interacts with V. cholerae has not been experimentally determined; moreover, whether any association between this bacterium alters the behaviors of V. cholerae to affect the disease outcome is unclear. Here, we show that P. aminovorans and V. cholerae together form dual-species biofilm structure at the air–liquid interface, with previously uncharacterized novel features. Importantly, the presence of P. aminovorans within the murine small intestine enhances V. cholerae colonization in the same niche that is dependent on the Vibrio exopolysaccharide and other major components of mature V. cholerae biofilm. These studies illustrate that multispecies biofilm formation is a plausible mechanism used by a gut microbe to increase the virulence of the pathogen, and this interaction may alter outcomes in enteric infections.

"Y no quedó nada, nada de la casa, todo salió volando" (And there was nothing left, nothing of the house, everything flew away): a critical medical ecological perspective on the lived experience of hurricane María in Puerto Rico

Background

Ecological disasters create dramatic changes as man-made and natural ecosystems adapt to their effects. In 2017, Hurricanes Irma and María devastated Puerto Rico. Public focus after such traumatic ecological events often neglects pre-existing community dynamics, heterogeneity of lived experience, and complexity of decision-making in the disaster context. We intended to better understand the lived experience of this ecological trauma in communities across ecosystems in Puerto Rico and among those displaced to Florida.

Method

We used the Critical Medical Ecological (CME) framework to assess the relative contribution of ecological dimensions on lived experience across community levels and time. We used qualitative methods with emic coding and etic mapping of salient constructs to the ecological model. In total, 96 people participated in 23 discussion encounters. Two people coded interviews in Spanish using Dedoose. We identified common themes in sequential order mapped to elements of the CME to approximate the participants’ temporal experience.

Results

Codes applied to the period of the hurricane’s landfall, traverse, and exit were markedly distinct from the other two periods (before and after) examined in this study: the experience of the hurricane’s strike was highly personal and, at this level, reflected a mix of sociocultural, biological, and abiotic factors. After the hurricanes, social and community factors re-emerged while new risks and conditions arose that were biological (e.g., leptospirosis, no food or water) or abiotic (e.g., unusable roads/bridges, structures destroyed), but created ongoing stressors and social needs for communities. As we found, the dynamics of the social and household landscape sometimes involved the decision to leave Puerto Rico altogether, or forced people to continually face and adapt to the ongoing collapse in basic services that were only slowly and differentially restored.

Conclusion

Lived experience across each stage of the hurricanes differed substantially from one another. Communities disrupted by ecological disaster are also frequently entangled within global economic and political histories and dependencies that could preclude recovery. Island nations are especially vulnerable to both climate-induced ecological change and political-economic exploitation. The ongoing health effect of the hurricane remains palpable in many communities of Puerto Rico and among the diaspora in Florida.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11847-w.

"When It's a Girl, They Have a Chance to Have Sex With Them. When It's a Boy…They Have Been Known to Rape Them": Perceptions of United Nations Peacekeeper-Perpetrated Sexual Exploitation and Abuse Against Women/Girls Versus Men/Boys in Haiti

Peacekeeping missions have been marred by reports of sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) against local community members. However, there is limited research on how SEA against women/girls versus men/boys is perceived in peacekeeping host societies. In 2017 we collected micro-narratives in Haiti and then conducted a thematic analysis to understand how peacekeeper-perpetrated SEA was perceived by local community members comparing SEA against women/girls versus SEA against men/boys. Both male and female participants used language which suggested the normalization, in Haitian society, of both transactional sex with and rape of women/girls by UN personnel. In contrast, peacekeeper-perpetrated SEA against men/boys was viewed as unacceptable and was associated with homosexuality and related stigmatization. Overall, our results suggest that in Haiti, inequitable gender norms, the commodification of female sexuality, and homophobia result in SEA against males being recognized as a wrong that elicits outrage, while SEA against women/girls has been normalized. It is important to address the normalization of SEA against women/girls to prevent future violence and to recognize that SEA is also perpetrated against men/boys. Survivor-centered programs, sensitive to the needs of both male and female survivors, are required.

Vibrio cholerae O139 persists in Dhaka, Bangladesh since 1993

BACKGROUND

After a multi-country Asian outbreak of cholera due to Vibrio cholerae serogroup O139 which started in 1992, it is rarely detected from any country in Asia and has not been detected from patients in Africa.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We extracted surveillance data from the Dhaka and Matlab Hospitals of International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b) to review trends in isolation of Vibrio cholerae O139 in Bangladesh. Data from the Dhaka Hospital is a 2% sample of > 100,000 diarrhoeal patients treated annually. Data from the Matlab Hospital includes all diarrhoeal patients who hail from the villages included in the Matlab Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Vibrio cholerae O139 was first isolated in Dhaka in 1993 and had been isolated every year since then except for a gap between 2005 and 2008. An average of thirteen isolates was detected annually from the Dhaka Hospital during the last ten years, yielding an estimated 650 cases annually at this hospital. During the last ten years, cases due to serogroup O139 represented 0.47% of all cholera cases; the others being due to serogroup O1. No cases with serogroup O139 were identified at Matlab since 2006. Clinical signs and symptoms of cholera due to serogroup O139 were similar to cases due to serogroup O1 though more of the O139 cases were not dehydrated. Most isolates of O139 remained sensitive to tetracycline, ciprofloxacin, and azithromycin, but they became resistant to erythromycin starting in 2009.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Cholera due to Vibrio cholerae serogroup O139 continues to cause typical cholera in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Predators among protectors: overcoming power abuse during humanitarian crisis through effective humanitarian diplomacy and a gender-transformative approach

Sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) is one of the most depraved crimes against humanity. When carried out by peacekeepers and humanitarian aid workers, it depicts a catastrophic failure of protection bringing harm to the very people the United Nations and international organizations vow to protect. This paper has highlighted the various allegations and incidents of SEA repeatedly happening in conflict-affected countries. Allegations of SEA have since surfaced related to operations in Bosnia, Cambodia, Somalia, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Kosovo, Cote d'Ivoire, Haiti, Sudan, Guinea and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The symptoms of abuse survivors generally resemble those of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, and SEA has significant health consequences and poses a severe threat to public health advancement. Based on the literature review, we propose that international and humanitarian organizations must ensure that these offences do not happen in the future by taking appropriate measures. These organizations must prioritize rigorous training on gender equality and values and include a basic mandatory test on gender equality before joining humanitarian missions. Since humanitarian diplomacy encompasses actions carried out by the humanitarian organizations to acquire space from military and political authorities within to function with integrity, we emphasize that strengthening humanitarian diplomacy can play a pivotal role to train the humanitarian workforce on best practices to reduce SEA. Besides, we further propose that women should be allowed to lead from the front; otherwise, true gender equality and issues relevant to gender, including SEA, will be challenging to attain.

Achieving coordinated national immunity and cholera elimination in Haiti through vaccination: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Cholera was introduced into Haiti in 2010. Since then, more than 820 000 cases and nearly 10 000 deaths have been reported. Oral cholera vaccine (OCV) is safe and effective, but has not been seen as a primary tool for cholera elimination due to a limited period of protection and constrained supplies. Regionally, epidemic cholera is contained to the island of Hispaniola, and the lowest numbers of cases since the epidemic began were reported in 2019. Hence, Haiti may represent a unique opportunity to eliminate cholera with OCV.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we assessed the probability of elimination, time to elimination, and percentage of cases averted with OCV campaign scenarios in Haiti through simulations from four modelling teams. For a 10-year period from January 19, 2019, to Jan 13, 2029, we compared a no vaccination scenario with five OCV campaign scenarios that differed in geographical scope, coverage, and rollout duration. Teams used weekly department-level reports of suspected cholera cases from the Haiti Ministry of Public Health and Population to calibrate the models and used common vaccine-related assumptions, but other model features were determined independently.

FINDINGS

Among campaigns with the same vaccination coverage (70% fully vaccinated), the median probability of elimination after 5 years was 0-18% for no vaccination, 0-33% for 2-year campaigns focused in the two departments with the highest historical incidence, 0-72% for three-department campaigns, and 35-100% for nationwide campaigns. Two-department campaigns averted a median of 12-58% of infections, three-department campaigns averted 29-80% of infections, and national campaigns averted 58-95% of infections. Extending the national campaign to a 5-year rollout (compared to a 2-year rollout), reduced the probability of elimination to 0-95% and the proportion of cases averted to 37-86%.

INTERPRETATION

Models suggest that the probability of achieving zero transmission of Vibrio cholerae in Haiti with current methods of control is low, and that bolder action is needed to promote elimination of cholera from the region. Large-scale cholera vaccination campaigns in Haiti would offer the opportunity to synchronise nationwide immunity, providing near-term population protection while improvements to water and sanitation promote long-term cholera elimination.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Global Good Fund, Institute for Disease Modeling, Swiss National Science Foundation, and US National Institutes of Health.

Progress and Challenges in Using Oral Cholera Vaccines to Control Outbreaks: The Médecins Sans Frontières Experience

The use of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) has increased since 2011, when Shanchol, the first OCV suitable for large-scale use, became available. Médecins Sans Frontières considers OCVs an essential cholera outbreak control tool and has contributed to generating new evidence on OCV use in outbreaks. We showed that large-scale mass campaigns are feasible during outbreaks, documented high short-term effectiveness and showed that vaccines are likely safe in pregnancy. We found that a single-dose regimen has high short-term effectiveness, making rapid delivery of vaccine during outbreaks easier, especially given the on-going global vaccine shortage. Despite progress, OCV has still not been used widely in some of the largest recent outbreaks and thousands of cholera deaths are reported every year. While working towards improving our tools to protect those most at-risk of cholera, we must strive to use all available effective interventions in efficient ways, including OCV, to prevent avoidable deaths today.

Contrasts, contradictions and control of cholera

Cholera has been extremely pervasive during the past four decades and continues to remain a significant public health concern. The disease has plagued humankind in the form of seven pandemics since the last two centuries. There is considerable scientific evidence based on research on cholera and its etiologic agent Vibrio cholerae, however we are still unable to accurately forecast and pre-empt the occurrence of cholera outbreaks. The commentary discusses the contrasts and contradictions of cholera, its control and its unpredictable nature. Through a multi-sectoral approach and broad stakeholder collaboration cholera control is possible with meticulous country-level planning for early detection and response to outbreaks. The commentary reiterates that every potential death on account of cholera is preventable because of the available knowledge and tools to effectively prevent and treat cholera.

Epidemiological and molecular forensics of cholera recurrence in Haiti

Cholera has affected Haiti with damping waves of outbreaks since October 2010. However, mechanisms behind disease persistence during lull periods remain poorly understood. By mid 2014, cholera transmission seemed to only persist in the northern part of Haiti. Meanwhile, cholera appeared nearly extinct in the capital, Port-au-Prince, where it eventually exploded in September 2014. This study aimed to determine whether this outbreak was caused by local undetected cases or by re-importation of the disease from the north. Applying an integrated approach between November 2013 and November 2014, we assessed the temporal and spatial dynamics of cholera using routine surveillance data and performed population genetics analyses of 178 Vibrio cholerae O1 clinical isolates. The results suggest that the northern part of the country exhibited a persisting metapopulation pattern with roaming oligoclonal outbreaks that could not be effectively controlled. Conversely, undetected and unaddressed autochthonous low-grade transmission persisted in the Port-au-Prince area, which may have been the source of the acute outbreak in late-2014. Cholera genotyping is a simple but powerful tool to adapt control strategies based on epidemic specificities. In Haiti, these data have already yielded significant progress in cholera surveillance, which is a key component of the strategy to eventually eliminate cholera.

Cholera Mortality during Urban Epidemic, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, August 16, 2015-January 16, 20161

In 2015, a cholera epidemic occurred in Tanzania; most cases and deaths occurred in Dar es Salaam early in the outbreak. We evaluated cholera mortality through passive surveillance, burial permits, and interviews conducted with decedents’ caretakers. Active case finding identified 101 suspected cholera deaths. Routine surveillance had captured only 48 (48%) of all cholera deaths, and burial permit assessments captured the remainder. We interviewed caregivers of 56 decedents to assess cholera management behaviors. Of 51 decedents receiving home care, 5 (10%) used oral rehydration solution after becoming ill. Caregivers reported that 51 (93%) of 55 decedents with known time of death sought care before death; 16 (29%) of 55 delayed seeking care for >6 h. Of the 33 (59%) community decedents, 20 (61%) were said to have been discharged from a health facility before death. Appropriate and early management of cholera cases can reduce the number of cholera deaths.

Cumulative protective efficacy of rZot and rAce combination in challenge experiments with wild type Vibrio cholerae in mouse model

The aim of this study was to assess the cumulative immunogenicity properties of rZot and rAce combination and their potential ability to increase the clearance rate of pathogenic standard Vibrio cholerae strain in challenge experiments in mice model. The recombinant Zot and Ace proteins were produced and used to raise polyclonal antibodies of anti-Zot and anti-Ace recombinant proteins in rabbit. Six-week female BALB/c mice were immunized with different antigens via oral route. Blood samples were collected, and the total amount of IgG and IgA antibodies against rZot and rAce were measured in blood and stool samples of each immunized mouse. Challenge experiments were done with toxigenic V. cholerae strain. The anti-Zot and anti-Ace IgG titers were significantly higher in immunized mice in comparison with control group. The IgG and IgA titers were higher in the sera of mice immunized by recombinant Ace than in group immunized by rZot, indicating the higher immunogenicity of rAce than rZot. The use of rAce and rZot mixture led to synergistic activities in increasing the level of IgG and IgA in comparison with the use of each protein separately. The clearance rate was significantly higher in different challenge groups than in the control group, and the coherence between rZot and rAce reduced the bacterial shedding significantly. In conclusion, the use of recombinant Zot and Ace mixture can produce the proper amount of IgA and IgG against to toxigenic V. cholerae, reduce bacterial shedding in immunized mice significantly, and be used as a potent candidate in cholera vaccine research.

Cholera epidemic in Yemen, 2016-18: an analysis of surveillance data

Background

In war-torn Yemen, reports of confirmed cholera started in late September, 2016. The disease continues to plague Yemen today in what has become the largest documented cholera epidemic of modern times. We aimed to describe the key epidemiological features of this epidemic, including the drivers of cholera transmission during the outbreak.

Methods

The Yemen Health Authorities set up a national cholera surveillance system to collect information on suspected cholera cases presenting at health facilities. Individual variables included symptom onset date, age, severity of dehydration, and rapid diagnostic test result. Suspected cholera cases were confirmed by culture, and a subset of samples had additional phenotypic and genotypic analysis. We first conducted descriptive analyses at national and governorate levels. We divided the epidemic into three time periods: the first wave (Sept 28, 2016, to April 23, 2017), the increasing phase of the second wave (April 24, 2017, to July 2, 2017), and the decreasing phase of the second wave (July 3, 2017, to March 12, 2018). We reconstructed the changes in cholera transmission over time by estimating the instantaneous reproduction number, R_t. Finally, we estimated the association between rainfall and the daily cholera incidence during the increasing phase of the second epidemic wave by fitting a spatiotemporal regression model.

Findings

From Sept 28, 2016, to March 12, 2018, 1 103 683 suspected cholera cases (attack rate 3·69%) and 2385 deaths (case fatality risk 0·22%) were reported countrywide. The epidemic consisted of two distinct waves with a surge in transmission in May, 2017, corresponding to a median R_t of more than 2 in 13 of 23 governorates. Microbiological analyses suggested that the same Vibrio cholerae O1 Ogawa strain circulated in both waves. We found a positive, non-linear, association between weekly rainfall and suspected cholera incidence in the following 10 days; the relative risk of cholera after a weekly rainfall of 25 mm was 1·42 (95% CI 1·31–1·55) compared with a week without rain.

Interpretation

Our analysis suggests that the small first cholera epidemic wave seeded cholera across Yemen during the dry season. When the rains returned in April, 2017, they triggered widespread cholera transmission that led to the large second wave. These results suggest that cholera could resurge during the ongoing 2018 rainy season if transmission remains active. Therefore, health authorities and partners should immediately enhance current control efforts to mitigate the risk of a new cholera epidemic wave in Yemen.

Funding

Health Authorities of Yemen, WHO, and Médecins Sans Frontières.

The potential impact of case-area targeted interventions in response to cholera outbreaks: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Cholera prevention and control interventions targeted to neighbors of cholera cases (case-area targeted interventions [CATIs]), including improved water, sanitation, and hygiene, oral cholera vaccine (OCV), and prophylactic antibiotics, may be able to efficiently avert cholera cases and deaths while saving scarce resources during epidemics. Efforts to quickly target interventions to neighbors of cases have been made in recent outbreaks, but little empirical evidence related to the effectiveness, efficiency, or ideal design of this approach exists. Here, we aim to provide practical guidance on how CATIs might be used by exploring key determinants of intervention impact, including the mix of interventions, "ring" size, and timing, in simulated cholera epidemics fit to data from an urban cholera epidemic in Africa.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed a micro-simulation model and calibrated it to both the epidemic curve and the small-scale spatiotemporal clustering pattern of case households from a large 2011 cholera outbreak in N'Djamena, Chad (4,352 reported cases over 232 days), and explored the potential impact of CATIs in simulated epidemics. CATIs were implemented with realistic logistical delays after cases presented for care using different combinations of prophylactic antibiotics, OCV, and/or point-of-use water treatment (POUWT) starting at different points during the epidemics and targeting rings of various radii around incident case households. Our findings suggest that CATIs shorten the duration of epidemics and are more resource-efficient than mass campaigns. OCV was predicted to be the most effective single intervention, followed by POUWT and antibiotics. CATIs with OCV started early in an epidemic focusing on a 100-m radius around case households were estimated to shorten epidemics by 68% (IQR 62% to 72%), with an 81% (IQR 69% to 87%) reduction in cases compared to uncontrolled epidemics. These same targeted interventions with OCV led to a 44-fold (IQR 27 to 78) reduction in the number of people needed to target to avert a single case of cholera, compared to mass campaigns in high-cholera-risk neighborhoods. The optimal radius to target around incident case households differed by intervention type, with antibiotics having an optimal radius of 30 m to 45 m compared to 70 m to 100 m for OCV and POUWT. Adding POUWT or antibiotics to OCV provided only marginal impact and efficiency improvements. Starting CATIs early in an epidemic with OCV and POUWT targeting those within 100 m of an incident case household reduced epidemic durations by 70% (IQR 65% to 75%) and the number of cases by 82% (IQR 71% to 88%) compared to uncontrolled epidemics. CATIs used late in epidemics, even after the peak, were estimated to avert relatively few cases but substantially reduced the number of epidemic days (e.g., by 28% [IQR 15% to 45%] for OCV in a 100-m radius). While this study is based on a rigorous, data-driven approach, the relatively high uncertainty about the ways in which POUWT and antibiotic interventions reduce cholera risk, as well as the heterogeneity in outbreak dynamics from place to place, limits the precision and generalizability of our quantitative estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that CATIs using OCV, antibiotics, and water treatment interventions at an appropriate radius around cases could be an effective and efficient way to fight cholera epidemics. They can provide a complementary and efficient approach to mass intervention campaigns and may prove particularly useful during the initial phase of an outbreak, when there are few cases and few available resources, or in order to shorten the often protracted tails of cholera epidemics.

The United Nations Material Assistance to Survivors of Cholera in Haiti: Consulting Survivors and Rebuilding Trust

Introduction

In August 2016, the United Nations (U.N.) Secretary General acknowledged the U.N.'s role in the cholera epidemic that has beset Haiti since 2010. Two months later, the Secretary General issued a historic apology to the Haitian people before the U.N. General Assembly, for the organization's insufficient response to the cholera outbreak. These steps are part of the U.N.'s "new approach" to cholera in Haiti, which also includes launching a material assistance package for those most affected by cholera.

Methods

This paper draws on the authors' experience and findings from consultations with more than 60,000 victims and communities affected by disasters and violence in a dozen countries. We reviewed the literature on best practices for consultation with and outreach to communities affected by development and transitional justice programming, and reviewed our own findings from previous studies with a view to identifying recommendations for ensuring that the assistance package reflects the views of people affected by cholera.

Results

The assistance package program is an opportunity to rebuild the relationship between the victims and the United Nations. This can only be achieved if victims are informed and engaged in the process. This consultation effort is also an opportunity to answer a set of key questions related to the nature, structure, and implementation of the victims' assistance program, but also how the program may be designed to contribute to rebuilding Haitians' confidence in the U.N. as an institution that promotes peace, human rights, and development.

Discussion

We recommend that the consultations must be accompanied by an outreach effort that provides clear, accurate information on the assistance program, so that it begins to establish a dialogue between the U.N. and cholera victims. Finally, we conclude by offering a number of concrete next steps that the U.N. can take to kick start the consultation process.

Cost-of-illness of cholera to households and health facilities in rural Malawi

Cholera remains an important public health problem in many low- and middle-income countries. Vaccination has been recommended as a possible intervention for the prevention and control of cholera. Evidence, especially data on disease burden, cost-of-illness, delivery costs and cost-effectiveness to support a wider use of vaccine is still weak. This study aims at estimating the cost-of-illness of cholera to households and health facilities in Machinga and Zomba Districts, Malawi. A cross-sectional study using retrospectively collected cost data was undertaken in this investigation. One hundred patients were purposefully selected for the assessment of the household cost-of-illness and four cholera treatment centres and one health facility were selected for the assessment conducted in health facilities. Data collected for the assessment in households included direct and indirect costs borne by cholera patients and their families while only direct costs were considered for the assessment conducted in health facilities. Whenever possible, descriptive and regression analysis were used to assess difference in mean costs between groups of patients. The average costs to patients’ households and health facilities for treating an episode of cholera amounted to US$65.6 and US$59.7 in 2016 for households and health facilities, respectively equivalent to international dollars (I$) 249.9 and 227.5 the same year. Costs incurred in treating a cholera episode were proportional to duration of hospital stay. Moreover, 52% of households used coping strategies to compensate for direct and indirect costs imposed by the disease. Both households and health facilities could avert significant treatment expenditures through a broader use of pre-emptive cholera vaccination. These findings have direct policy implications regarding priority investments for the prevention and control of cholera.

Antimicrobial Resistance Risks of Cholera Prophylaxis for United Nations Peacekeepers

More than 5 years after a United Nations peacekeeping battalion introduced cholera to Haiti, over 150,000 peacekeepers continue to be deployed annually from countries where cholera is endemic. The United Nations has thus far declined to provide antimicrobial chemoprophylaxis to peacekeepers, a policy based largely on concerns that the risks of drug resistance generation and spread would outweigh the potential benefits of preventing future cholera importations. In this study, we sought to better understand the relative benefits and risks of cholera chemoprophylaxis for peacekeepers in terms of antibiotic resistance. Using a stochastic model to quantify the potential impact of chemoprophylaxis on importation and transmission of drug-resistant and drug-sensitive Vibrio cholerae , we found that chemoprophylaxis would decrease the probability of cholera importation but would increase the expected number of drug-resistant infections if an importation event were to occur. Despite this potential increase, we found that at least 10 drug-sensitive infections would likely be averted per excess drug-resistant infection under a wide range of assumptions about the underlying prevalence of drug resistance and risk of acquired resistance. Given these findings, policymakers should reconsider whether the potential resistance risks of providing antimicrobial chemoprophylaxis to peacekeepers are sufficient to outweigh the anticipated benefits.

A cocktail of three virulent bacteriophages prevents Vibrio cholerae infection in animal models

Effective prevention strategies will be essential in reducing disease burden due to bacterial infections. Here we harness the specificity and rapid-acting properties of bacteriophages as a potential prophylaxis therapy for cholera, a severely dehydrating disease caused by Vibrio cholerae. To this end, we test a cocktail of three virulent phages in two animal models of cholera pathogenesis (infant mouse and rabbit models). Oral administration of the phages up to 24 h before V. cholerae challenge reduces colonization of the intestinal tract and prevents cholera-like diarrhea. None of the surviving V. cholerae colonies are resistant to all three phages. Genome sequencing and variant analysis of the surviving colonies indicate that resistance to the phages is largely conferred by mutations in genes required for the production of the phage receptors. For acute infections, such as cholera, phage prophylaxis could provide a strategy to limit the impact of bacterial disease on human health.