Use of a Diagonal Approach to Health System Strengthening and Measles Elimination after a Large Nationwide Outbreak in Mongolia

Group-based trajectory models of integrated vaccine delivery and equity in low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Integrated vaccine delivery - the linkage of routine vaccination with provision of other essential health services - is a hallmark of robust primary care systems that has been linked to equitable improvements in population health outcomes.

METHODS

We gathered longitudinal data relating to routine immunization coverage and vaccination equity in 78 low- and middle-income countries that have ever received support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, using multiple imputation to handle missing values. We then estimated several group-based trajectory models to describe the relationship between integrated vaccine delivery and vaccination equity in these countries. Finally, we used multinomial logistic regression to identify predictors of group membership.

RESULTS

We identified five distinct trajectories of geographic vaccination equity across both the imputed and non-imputed datasets, along with two and four trajectories of socioeconomic vaccination equity in the imputed and non-imputed datasets, respectively. Integration was associated with reductions in the slope index of inequality of measles vaccination in the countries analyzed. Integration was also associated with an increase in the percentage of districts reporting high measles vaccination coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

Integrated vaccine delivery is most strongly associated with improvements in vaccination equity in settings with high baseline levels of inequity. Continued scholarship is needed to further characterize the relationship between integration and health equity, as well as to improve measurement of vaccination coverage and integration.

Health systems effects of successive emergency health and nutrition projects: an embedded retrospective case study analysis in Sudan and Pakistan

Despite increasing attention to the concept of a humanitarian-development nexus in recent years, limited research is available to improve health systems strengthening practice within humanitarian programmes. We used an exploratory, systematic, embedded, multiple case study design to discern systems effects of successive Save the Children chronic emergency health and nutrition projects implemented in Sudan and Pakistan between 2011 and 2018. We used textual analysis to code 63 documents focused on eight themes using NVivo 11.0. This was supplemented by six key informant interviews. Findings offer a complex and mixed picture, with contributions to systems strengthening in community systems, their linkages to health management structures, and human resources for health. Projects with primary mandates for urgent service delivery progressively found systems strengthening opportunities, through a combination of tacit choices and explicit objectives. In both countries, some 'parallel systems' were set in place initially, with immediate gains (e.g. quality of services) only occasionally accompanied by enhanced systems capacity to sustain them. Cycles of implementation, however, achieved financial transition of 'macro-costs' to the government (e.g. facilities in Sudan, staff in Pakistan) through indirect pathways and the influence of pluralistic governmental structures themselves. Opportunities were taken, or missed, based on dynamic relationships within the government-development partners eco-system. Transition steps also came with unintended effects and drops in intensity. Both project contributions to systems strengthening and our own study were limited by substantial gaps in evaluation and documentation processes. We provide cautious recommendations based on the literature and our two case studies. Even mid-size chronic emergency projects can and should make meaningful and explicit contributions to systems strengthening. This contribution will, however, depend on the development eco-system context, and development of better collective intelligence (coordination, evaluation and learning, benchmarking, accountability) to improve individual projects' adaptive management efforts to improve fit with evolving national systems.

Analysis of 605 tuberculosis outbreaks in Japan, 1993-2015: time, place and transmission site

Since 1993, reports on tuberculosis (TB) outbreaks have been collected in Japan; however, there has never been an overall analysis of these TB outbreaks. We aim to provide one here. The TB outbreak data were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare and are described in terms of time, place and transmission site. The average number of TB cases and latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) were compared by the transmission site. Some 605 TB outbreaks with 3491 TB cases were reported in 1993-2015 with an increasing trend (r = 0.45), during which time 728 777 TB cases were reported nationwide. On an average, TB outbreaks occurred more often in April to May (5.5 outbreaks per 2 months) than in December to January (3.4). The most common transmission sites were workplaces (n = 255), followed by health facilities (n = 144), schools (n = 60) and welfare facilities (n = 48). Psychiatric hospitals and nursing homes had the highest average number of TB cases per outbreak (8.5 each), whereas schools and prisons had the highest numbers of LTBI cases (29.1 and 38.9, respectively). Countries, particularly those that have resources to investigate TB outbreaks, should collect and analyse findings of TB outbreaks, as it informs surveillance systems and eventually strengthens general health systems.

Estimation of the unvaccinated among those aged less than 25 years according to aimag and its association with incidence of measles outbreak 2015-2016 in Mongolia

Mongolia had an epidemic of measles in 2015-2016, even though more than 90% of the population have been vaccinated since 1997. This study aimed to examine the associations between unvaccinated proportion and measles incidence according to aimag. Mongolia has 21 provinces (aimag) with Ulaanbaatar as the capital city. Vaccination coverage between 1991 and 2014 and measles incidence according to aimag were obtained from the National Center for Communicable Diseases of Mongolia database. Accumulated unvaccinated proportion (AUP) among those aged 1 to 24 years in 2015 was estimated from the unvaccinated at the 1st dose of 1991 to 2014. From 1991 to 2014, unvaccinated proportion among those aged 1 to 24 years in the whole country has been reducing from 28.0% in 1991 to 1.8% in 2014. The AUP in 2015 varied from 2.7% (Selenge) to 21.8% (Govisumber). The incidence was remarkably higher in only two aimags with a large density of the unvaccinated aged 1 to 24 years (Ulaanbaatar and Darkhan-Uul) than in the other aimags. The incidence had no significant correlation with the AUP, although the correlation between the incidence and the density of unvaccinated aged 1 to 24 years was significant when the two aimags were included. In conclusion, the AUP between 2.7% and 21.8% had no correlation with the incidence according to aimags in Mongolia measles epidemic 2015-2016.

Genetic characteristics and pathogenesis of H5 low pathogenic avian influenza viruses from wild birds and domestic ducks in South Korea

H5 and H7 subtypes of low pathogenic avian influenza viruses (LPAIVs) can mutate to highly pathogenic forms and are therefore subject to stringent controls. We characterized H5 LPAIVs isolated from wild-bird habitats and duck farms in South Korea from 2010 to 2017. Through nationwide active surveillance for AIVs, 59 H5 LPAIVs were isolated from wild-bird habitats (a mean annual rate of 5.3% of AIV isolations). In 2015, one LPAI H5N3 strain was isolated on a duck farm. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the hemagglutinin (HA) gene of H5 isolates belonged to the Eurasian lineage, classified into three subgroups (HA-II, HA-III, and HA-IV). The H5 LPAIVs of the HA-III and HA-IV subgroups appeared in 2015 and 2017 in unusually high proportions (13.1% and 14.4%, respectively). In gene-constellation analysis, H5 LPAIVs isolated from 2015 to 2017 constituted ≥ 35 distinct genotypes, representing high levels of genetic diversity. Representative strains of three HA subgroups replicated restrictively in specific-pathogen-free chickens. Among the 11 isolates that were tested, 10 infected and replicated in mice without prior adaptation. The frequency of recent H5 LPAIV isolates with high genetic diversity indicates the importance of continued surveillance in both wild birds and poultry to monitor genetic and pathobiological changes.

Increase in Infant Measles Deaths During a Nationwide Measles Outbreak-Mongolia, 2015-2016

BACKGROUND

Surveillance data from a large measles outbreak in Mongolia suggested increased case fatality ratio (CFR) in the second of 2 waves. To confirm the increase in CFR and identify risk factors for measles death, we enhanced mortality ascertainment and conducted a case-control study among infants hospitalized for measles.

METHODS

We linked national vital records with surveillance data of clinically or laboratory-confirmed infant (aged <12 months) measles cases with rash onset during March-September 2015 (wave 1) and October 2015-June 2016 (wave 2). We abstracted medical charts of 95 fatal cases and 273 nonfatal cases hospitalized for measles, matched by age and sex. We calculated adjusted matched odds ratios (amORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk factors.

RESULTS

Infant measles deaths increased from 3 among 2224 cases (CFR: 0.13%) in wave 1 to 113 among 4884 cases (CFR: 2.31%) in wave 2 (P < .001). Inpatient admission, 7-21 days before measles rash onset, for pneumonia or influenza (amOR: 4.5; CI, 2.6-8.0), but not other diagnoses, was significantly associated with death.

DISCUSSION

Measles infection among children hospitalized with respiratory infections likely increased deaths due to measles during wave 2. Preventing measles virus nosocomial transmission likely decreases measles mortality.

Mitigating The Burden Of Diabetes In Sub-Saharan Africa Through An Integrated Diagonal Health Systems Approach

Diabetes is a chronic non-communicable disease (NCD) presenting growing health and economic burdens in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Diabetes is unique due to its cross-cutting nature, impacting multiple organ systems and increasing the risk for other communicable and non-communicable diseases. Unfortunately, the quality of care for diabetes in SSA is poor, largely due to a weak disease management framework and fragmented health systems in most sub-Saharan African countries. We argue that by synergizing disease-specific vertical programs with system-specific horizontal programs through an integrated disease-system diagonal approach, we can improve access, quality, and safety of diabetes care programs while also supporting other chronic diseases. We recommend utilizing the six World Health Organization (WHO) health system building blocks - 1) leadership and governance, 2) financing, 3) health workforce, 4) health information systems, 5) supply chains, and 6) service delivery - as a framework to design a diagonal approach with a focus on health system strengthening and integration to implement and scale quality diabetes care. We discuss the successes and challenges of this approach, outline opportunities for future care programming and research, and highlight how this approach can lead to the improvement in the quality of care for diabetes and other chronic diseases across SSA.

Accelerating measles and rubella elimination through research and innovation - Findings from the Measles & Rubella Initiative research prioritization process, 2016

The Measles & Rubella Initiative (M&RI) identified five key strategies to achieve measles and rubella elimination, including research and innovation to support cost-effective operations and improve vaccination and diagnostic tools. In 2016, the M&RI Research and Innovation Working Group (R&IWG) completed a research prioritization process to identify key research questions and update the global research agenda. The R&IWG reviewed meeting reports and strategic planning documents and solicited programmatic inputs from vaccination experts at the program operational level through a web survey, to identify previous research priorities and new research questions. The R&IWG then convened a meeting of experts to prioritize the identified research questions in four strategic areas: (1) epidemiology and economics, (2) surveillance and laboratory, (3) immunization strategies, and (4) demand creation and communications. The experts identified 19 priority research questions in the four strategic areas to address key areas of work necessary to further progress toward elimination. Future commitments from partners will be needed to develop a platform for improved coordination with adequate and predictable resources for research implementation and innovation to address these identified priorities.

Molecular characterization of measles viruses in China: Circulation dynamics of the endemic H1 genotype from 2011 to 2017

Due to the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) and supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) in China, the incidence of measles in China has decreased extensively. The incidence reached its lowest levels in contemporary history in 2012 and 2017, with incidence rates of 4.6 and 4.3 per million population, respectively. However, more than 147,000 measles cases were reported from 2013 to 2016. Furthermore, the proportions of cases in infants < 8 months and adults have been increasing since 2013, representing a considerable challenge for measles elimination in China. A total of 14,868 measles viruses were isolated from confirmed measles cases from 2011 to 2017, of which 14,631 were identified as the predominant endemic genotype, H1; 87 were identified as genotype A viruses that were vaccine associated strains; and 150 were identified as non-H1 genotype viruses. The non-H1 genotype viruses included 62 D8 viruses, 70 D9 viruses, 3 D11 viruses, 14 B3 viruses, and 1 G3 virus, which were identified as imported or import-related viruses that caused sporadic cases or small outbreaks. Most of the transmission chains detected during the period 2011–2012 were interrupted and were followed by many new transmission chains of unknown origin that spread, causing a large measles resurgence in China during 2013–2016. After 4 years of measles resurgence and continuous implementation of the routine immunization program and SIAs, the population immunity reached a sufficiently high level to interrupt most of the transmission chains; only a few strains survived, which continued to be sporadically detected in China in 2017. In the present study, the results from the combined epidemiological and molecular virological data demonstrated the great progress towards measles elimination in China by the further analysis of circulation dynamics for the endemic H1 genotype measles virus from 2011 to 2017. And this study accumulated critical baseline data on circulating wild-type measles viruses in China and provides comprehensive information to the world. These comprehensive baseline data provide evidence to support measles elimination in the future, not only in China but also in other countries worldwide. In addition, the information will be very useful to other countries for tracing their sources of measles cases and for identifying transmission links, which can help prevent potential measles outbreaks.

Measles vaccination in an increasingly immunized and developed world

Increased measles immunization has led to a significant decline in measles incidence and mortality. During 2016 it is estimated that fewer than 100,000 died from measles for the first time in recorded history. In highly immunized countries measles epidemiology has changed. Threats to national elimination goals and public health include aging cohorts of naïve people that exist from imperfect vaccination rates during the early years of immunization programs. This may be complemented by some loss of immunity in vaccinated populations. While childhood immunization must remain a focus for control efforts, due to higher mortality in the very young, these naïve adolescents and adults also accumulate as they age and add to the pool of susceptible people, perhaps beyond the view of those that are focused on childhood immunization. Here, features of measles epidemiology and control in highly immunized populations are reviewed, providing global data where necessary, to highlight why countries with high immunization coverage are still threatened by measles outbreaks and how changing dynamics may alter disease control.