Systematic review and economic decision modelling for the prevention and treatment of influenza A and B

Cost-effectiveness for high dose quadrivalent versus the adjuvanted quadrivalent influenza vaccine in the Italian older adult population

Objectives

To assess the cost-effectiveness of switching from adjuvanted quadrivalent vaccine (aQIV) to high-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine (HD-QIV) in those aged ≥65 years from the Italian National Health Service perspective.

Methods

We developed a decision tree model over a 1-year time-horizon to assess influenza-related costs and health outcomes. Two hospitalization approaches were considered: "hospitalization conditional on developing influenza" and "hospitalization possibly related to Influenza." The first approach considered only hospitalizations with influenza ICD-9-CM diagnosis codes. The second included hospitalizations for cardiorespiratory events possibly related to influenza to better capture the "hidden burden". Since comparative efficacy of high-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine versus adjuvanted quadrivalent vaccine was lacking, we assumed relative efficacy versus a common comparator, standard-dose influenza quadrivalent vaccines (SD-QIV). We assumed the relative efficacy of HD-QIV vs. SD-QIV was 24.2 and 18.2% for the first and second hospitalization approaches, respectively, based on published information. Due to lack of comparative efficacy data for aQIV vs. SD-QIV, we assumed three different scenarios: 0, 6, and 12% relative efficacy in scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively.

Results

For the first hospitalization approach, HD-QIV was a cost-effective alternative to aQIV in all scenarios at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €30,000 per Quality Adjusted Life Years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios across the scenarios were €7,301, €9,805, and €14,733, respectively, much lower than the willingness-to-pay per Quality Adjusted Life Years threshold. For the second hospitalization approach, HD-QIV was a dominant alternative to aQIV across all scenarios. The robustness of the results was confirmed in one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

Conclusion

Switching to HD-QIV from aQIV for the older adult in Italy would improve health-related outcomes, and would be cost-effective or cost saving.

Burden of seasonal influenza in the Swiss adult population during the 2016/2017-2018/2019 influenza seasons

BACKGROUND

Evidence on the burden of seasonal influenza in Switzerland is scarce, yet it is critical for the design of effective prevention and control measures. The objective of this study was to assess influenza-related resource utilization, health care expenditures and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost in Switzerland across the 2016/2017-2018/2019 influenza seasons.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed multiple real-world data sources to calculate epidemiological and health outcomes, QALYs lost, and direct medical costs due to influenza in the Swiss adult population. Subgroups included residents 18-49, 50-64, and 65+ years of age. The observation period was Week 26, 2016, to Week 25, 2019.

RESULTS

Across the three seasons, we estimated seasonal averages of 203,090 (se ± 26,717) general practitioner (GP) visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) 4944 (se ± 785) influenza-attributable hospitalizations and 1355 (se ± 169) excess deaths attributable to influenza. We estimated a total loss of 8429 (2016/2017), 11,179 (2017/2018), and 7701 (2018/2019) QALYs due to influenza. On average, 88% of the loss in QALYs was attributed to premature deaths due to influenza. The total direct medical costs amounted to 44.4 (2016/2017), 77.3 (2017/2018), and 64.5 (2018/2019) million euros. On average, 79.6% of the total costs arose due to hospitalizations.

CONCLUSIONS

In Switzerland, the burden of influenza on patients and payers is significant and particularly high in the elderly population. Policy interventions to increase vaccination rates and the uptake of more effective vaccines among the elderly are needed to reduce the burden of influenza.

Cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination with a high dose quadrivalent vaccine of the elderly population in Belgium, Finland, and Portugal

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza may result in severe outcomes, resulting in a significant increase of hospitalizations during the winter. To improve the protection provided by the standard dose influenza quadrivalent vaccine (SDQIV), a high-dose vaccine (HDQIV) has been developed specifically for adults aged 60 and older who are at higher risk of life-threatening complications.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of HD QIV vs. SD-QIV in the recommended population of three European countries: Belgium, Finland and Portugal.

METHODS

A cost-utility analysis comparing HDQIV vs. SDQIV was conducted using a decision tree estimating health outcomes conditional on influenza: cases, general practitioner and emergency department visits, hospitalizations and deaths. To account for the full benefit of the vaccine, an additional outcome-hospitalizations attributable to influenza-was also evaluated. Demographic, epidemiological and economic inputs were based on the respective local data. HDQIV relative vaccine efficacy vs. SDQIV was obtained from a phase IV efficacy randomized clinical trial. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were computed for each country, and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (1,000 simulations per country) was performed to assess the robustness of the results.

RESULTS

In the base case analysis, HDQIV resulted in improved health outcomes (visits, hospitalizations, and deaths) compared to SDQIV. The ICERs computed were 1,397, 9,581, and 15,267 €/QALY, whereas the PSA yielded 100, 100, and 84% of simulations being cost-effective at their respective willingness-to-pay thresholds, for Belgium, Finland, and Portugal, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In three European countries with different healthcare systems, HD-QIV would contribute to a significant improvement in the prevention of influenza health outcomes while being cost-effective.

Cost-effectiveness of adding oseltamivir to primary care for influenza-like-illness: economic evaluation alongside the randomised controlled ALIC4E trial in 15 European countries

BACKGROUND

Oseltamivir is usually not often prescribed (or reimbursed) for non-high-risk patients consulting for influenza-like-illness (ILI) in primary care in Europe. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adding oseltamivir to usual primary care in adults/adolescents (13 years +) and children with ILI during seasonal influenza epidemics, using data collected in an open-label, multi-season, randomised controlled trial of oseltamivir in 15 European countries.

METHODS

Direct and indirect cost estimates were based on patient reported resource use and official country-specific unit costs. Health-Related Quality of Life was assessed by EQ-5D questionnaires. Costs and quality adjusted life-years (QALY) were bootstrapped (N = 10,000) to estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER), from both the healthcare payers' and the societal perspectives, with uncertainty expressed through probabilistic sensitivity analysis and expected value for perfect information (EVPI) analysis. Additionally, scenario (self-reported spending), comorbidities subgroup and country-specific analyses were performed.

RESULTS

The healthcare payers' expected ICERs of oseltamivir were €22,459 per QALY gained in adults/adolescents and €13,001 in children. From the societal perspective, oseltamivir was cost-saving in adults/adolescents, but the ICER is €8,344 in children. Large uncertainties were observed in subgroups with comorbidities, especially for children. The expected ICERs and extent of decision uncertainty varied between countries (EVPI ranged €1-€35 per patient).

CONCLUSION

Adding oseltamivir to primary usual care in Europe is likely to be cost-effective for treating adults/adolescents and children with ILI from the healthcare payers' perspective (if willingness-to-pay per QALY gained > €22,459) and cost-saving in adults/adolescents from a societal perspective.

COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign among the Health Workers of Fondazione Policlinico Universitario Agostino Gemelli IRCCS: A Cost–Benefit Analysis

Vaccinations generate health, economic and social benefits in both vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. The aim of this study was to conduct a cost–benefit analysis to estimate the costs and benefits associated with the COVID-19 vaccination campaign for health workers in Fondazione Policlinico Universitario Agostino Gemelli IRCCS (FPG). The analysis included 5152 healthcare workers who voluntarily received the Pfizer–BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, divided into physicians, nurses and other health workers. Data about vaccine cost, administration and materials were derived from administrative databases of the FPG from 28 December 2020 to 31 March 2021. The costs associated with the COVID-19 vaccination campaign amounted to EUR 2,221,768, while the benefits equaled EUR 10,345,847. The benefit-to-cost ratio resulted in EUR 4.66, while the societal return on investment showed a ratio of EUR 3.66. The COVID-19 vaccination campaign for health workers in FPG has high social returns and it strengthens the need to inform and update decision-making about the economic and social benefits associated with a vaccination campaign. Health economic evaluations on vaccines should always be considered by decision-makers when considering the inclusion of a new vaccine into the national program.

Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies

Background: The duration of immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still uncertain, but it is of key clinical and epidemiological importance. Seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) have been circulating for longer and, therefore, may offer insights into the long-term dynamics of reinfection for such viruses. Methods: Combining historical seroprevalence data from five studies covering the four circulating HCoVs with an age-structured reverse catalytic model, we estimated the likely duration of seropositivity following seroconversion. Results: We estimated that antibody persistence lasted between 0.9 (95% Credible interval: 0.6 - 1.6) and 3.8 (95% CrI: 2.0 - 7.4) years. Furthermore, we found the force of infection in older children and adults (those over 8.5 [95% CrI: 7.5 - 9.9] years) to be higher compared with young children in the majority of studies. Conclusions: These estimates of endemic HCoV dynamics could provide an indication of the future long-term infection and reinfection patterns of SARS-CoV-2.

Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies

Background: The duration of immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still uncertain, but it is of key clinical and epidemiological importance. Seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) have been circulating for longer and, therefore, may offer insights into the long-term dynamics of reinfection for such viruses. Methods: Combining historical seroprevalence data from five studies covering the four circulating HCoVs with an age-structured reverse catalytic model, we estimated the likely duration of seropositivity following seroconversion. Results: We estimated that antibody persistence lasted between 0.9 (95% Credible interval: 0.6 - 1.6) and 3.8 (95% CrI: 2.0 - 7.4) years. Furthermore, we found the force of infection in older children and adults (those over 8.5 [95% CrI: 7.5 - 9.9] years) to be higher compared with young children in the majority of studies. Conclusions: These estimates of endemic HCoV dynamics could provide an indication of the future long-term infection and reinfection patterns of SARS-CoV-2.

Role of sialylated glycans on bovine lactoferrin against influenza virus

Influenza is a worldwide plague caused by the influenza virus (IAV) infection, which is initiated by specific recognition with sialic acids on host cell surface. Bovine lactoferrin (bLf) is a sialoglycoprotein belonging to the transferrin family, and it plays an important role in immune regulation. It also shows toxicity against cancer cells and pathogenic microorganisms including bacteria, fungi, and virus. The purpose of this study is to assess the roles of the sialylated glycans on bLf against IAV. To this end, bLf were first treated with sodium periodate to destroy its sialylated glycans. Then, the binding activity of native or desialylated bLf with various IAV was assessed by blotting assay. Finally, their ability to inhibit IAV attachment to host cells was analyzed in vitro. Our result showed that the sialylated glycans on bLf were almost completely destroyed by sodium periodate treatment. Furthermore, the binding activity of desialylated bLf to IAV and the ability to inhibit IAV mimics binding to MDCK cells were significantly reduced compared to that of native bLf. These results demonstrated that the sialylated glycans on bLf could serve as competitive substrates to block IAV attachment to host cells during the early stages of viral infection. Our findings make an important contribute for the fully understanding of the mechanism of bLf in the prevention of IAV infections and their possible applications in antiviral infection.

Analisi di costo-efficacia e budget impact per il vaccino antinfluenzale quadrivalente ad alto dosaggio nella popolazione anziana italiana

Introduction:

Influenza is a widespread acute respiratory disease and represents a serious Public Health problem, both from the NHS and society perspectives. The High Dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV HD) is a flu vaccine containing 4 times the antigens of a Standard Dose vaccine, resulting in demonstrated superior protection in the population aged 65 years and over.

Methods:

The analysis has been conducted from the perspective of the NHS. The CEA focuses on the comparison between QIV HD and the QIV SD vaccine. The BIM aims to estimate the potential economic impact for the National Health Service (NHS) resulting from the use of QIV HD in clinical practice in subjects aged 65 or over, when considering its introduction in combination with currently used vaccines, QIV SD and adjuvanted TIV.

Results:

In a scenario which considers hospitalizations possibly related to influenza, so including cardio-respiratory events, a dominant cost-effectiveness profile emerges in the comparison with QIV SD. In terms of budget impact, overall savings obtained by comparing the two scenarios regarding hospitalizations are equal to 92,766,429 € over the three years’ time horizon considered in the analysis.

Conclusions:

Nowadays, also considering the state of emergency due to the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, it is crucial to implement innovative health technologies that improve the efficiency and sustainability of the health system. Also, it is essential to protect the elderly population, helping to avoid overload and healthcare systems disruption due to the many COVID-19 hospitalizations.

Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies

Background: The duration of immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still uncertain, but it is of key clinical and epidemiological importance. Seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) have been circulating for longer and, therefore, may offer insights into the long-term dynamics of reinfection for such viruses. Methods: Combining historical seroprevalence data from five studies covering the four circulating HCoVs with an age-structured reverse catalytic model, we estimated the likely duration of seropositivity following seroconversion. Results: We estimated that antibody persistence lasted between 0.9 (95% Credible interval: 0.6 - 1.6) and 3.8 (95% CrI: 2.0 - 7.4) years. Furthermore, we found the force of infection in older children and adults (those over 8.5 [95% CrI: 7.5 - 9.9] years) to be higher compared with young children in the majority of studies. Conclusions: These estimates of endemic HCoV dynamics could provide an indication of the future long-term infection and reinfection patterns of SARS-CoV-2.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccination in preventing hospitalisation due to influenza in children: a systematic review and meta-analysis

This systematic review assesses the literature for estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalisation in children. Studies of any design to 08 June 2020 were included if the outcome was hospitalisation, participants were 17 years old or less and influenza infection was laboratory-confirmed. A random-effects meta-analysis of 37 studies that used a test-negative design gave a pooled seasonal IVE against hospitalisation of 53.3% (47.2-58.8) for any influenza. IVE was higher against influenza A/H1N1pdm09 (68.7%, 56.9-77.2) and lowest against influenza A/H3N2 (35.8%, 23.4-46.3). Estimates by vaccine type ranged from 44.3% (30.1-55.7) for LAIV to 68.9% (53.6-79.2) for inactivated vaccines. IVE estimates were higher in seasons when the circulating influenza strains were antigenically matched to vaccine strains (59.3%, 48.3-68.0). Influenza vaccination gives moderate overall protection against influenza-associated hospitalisation in children supporting annual vaccination. IVE varies by influenza subtype and vaccine type.

Cost-effectiveness of high dose versus adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccines in England and Wales

AIMS

High dose trivalent influenza vaccine (HD TIV) and adjuvant TIV (aTIV) have been developed specifically for adults aged 65 and older (65+) who are at high risk of life-threatening complications. However, there is a scarcity of evidence comparing the clinical and cost-effectiveness of HD TIV and aTIV. The aim of this study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of HD TIV versus aTIV in the England and Wales 65+ population.

METHODS

A cost-utility analysis was conducted using a decision tree with two influenza related outcomes: Laboratory confirmed cases that could result in GP consultation, and hospitalizations that may result in premature mortality. Due to a lack of comparative evidence, the effectiveness of HD TIV versus aTIV was calculated indirectly, based on relative effectiveness estimates for each vaccine versus a common comparator, standard dose (SD) TIV. The primary analysis included hospitalizations explicitly due to influenza/pneumonia. Cost-effectiveness was established for three scenarios applying differing relative effectiveness estimates for aTIV versus SD TIV. Uncertainty was analysed in one-way deterministic sensitivity analyses. A secondary analysis included hospitalizations due to any respiratory illness.

RESULTS

The minimum population impact of vaccination with HD TIV rather than aTIV was 13,092 fewer influenza cases, 1,109 fewer influenza related deaths, 4,673 fewer hospitalizations, and 3,245 fewer GP appointments. HD TIV was cost-effective versus aTIV for all three effectiveness scenarios, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) equal to £1,932, £4,181, and £8,767 per quality adjusted life year. Results were consistent across the secondary analysis and deterministic sensitivity analyses.

LIMITATIONS

The analysis was limited by a lack of robust and consistent effectiveness data for aTIV.

CONCLUSION

HD TIV is cost-effective versus aTIV in people aged 65+ in England and Wales. Use of HD TIV over aTIV could increase clinical benefits and reduce the public health and economic burden of influenza.

[A network meta-analysis of the efficacy and safety of baloxavir marboxil versus neuraminidase inhibitors for the treatment of influenza in otherwise healthy patients]

AIM

Baloxavir marboxil (baloxavir) is the first cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitor being studied for the treatment of influenza in single oral dosing regimen. This network meta-analysis (NMA) evaluated the efficacy and safety of baloxavir compared to other antivirals for influenza in otherwise healthy patients.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was performed on 14 November 2016 in Medline, Embase, CENTRAL, and ICHUSHI to identify randomized controlled trials assessing antivirals for influenza. A NMA including 22 trials was performed to compare the efficacy and safety of baloxavir with other antivirals.

RESULTS

The time to alleviation of all symptoms was significantly shorter for baloxavir compared to zanamivir (difference in median time 19.96 h; 95% CrI [3.23, 39.07]). The time to cessation of viral shedding was significantly shorter for baloxavir than zanamivir and oseltamivir (47.00 h; 95% CrI [28.18, 73.86] and 56.03 h [33.74, 87.86], respectively). The mean decline in virus titer from baseline to 24 h was significantly greater for baloxavir than for the other drugs. Other differences in efficacy outcomes were not significant. No significant differences were found between baloxavir and the other antivirals for safety, except total drug-related adverse events where baloxavir demonstrated a decrease compared to oseltamivir and laninamivir.

CONCLUSION

The NMA suggests that baloxavir demonstrated better or similar efficacy results compared to other antivirals with a comparable safety profile. Baloxavir led to a significant decrease in viral titer versus zanamivir, oseltamivir and peramivir and decreased viral shedding versus zanamivir and oseltamivir.

Point-of-care diagnostic tests for influenza in the emergency department: A cost-effectiveness analysis in a high-risk population from a Canadian perspective

BACKGROUND

Our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of novel rapid diagnostic tests: rapid influenza diagnostic tests (RIDT), digital immunoassays (DIA), rapid nucleic acid amplification tests (NAAT), and other treatment algorithms for influenza in high-risk patients presenting to hospital with influenza-like illness (ILI).

METHODS

We developed a decision-analytic model to assess the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic test strategies (RIDT, DIA, NAAT, clinical judgement, batch polymerase chain reaction) preceding treatment; no diagnostic testing and treating everyone; and not treating anyone. We modeled high-risk 65-year old patients from a health payer perspective and accrued outcomes over a patient's lifetime. We reported health outcomes, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), healthcare costs, and net health benefit (NHB) to measure cost-effectiveness per cohort of 100,000 patients.

RESULTS

Treating everyone with no prior testing was the most cost-effective strategy, at a cost-effectiveness threshold of $50,000/QALY, in over 85% of simulations. This strategy yielded the highest NHB of 15.0344 QALYs, but inappropriately treats all patients without influenza. Of the novel rapid diagnostics, NAAT resulted in the highest NHB (15.0277 QALYs), and the least number of deaths (1,571 per 100,000). Sensitivity analyses determined that results were most impacted by the pretest probability of ILI being influenza, diagnostic test sensitivity, and treatment effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on our model, treating high-risk patients presenting to hospital with influenza-like illness, without performing a novel rapid diagnostic test, resulted in the highest NHB and was most cost-effective. However, consideration of whether treatment is appropriate in the absence of diagnostic confirmation should be taken into account for decision-making by clinicians and policymakers.

Cost effectiveness of trivalent and quadrivalent influenza vaccines in 50- to 64-year-old adults in Korea

BACKGROUND

Influenza causes severe complications in at-risk populations, resulting in significant morbidity and mortality. Vaccination is the most effective measure to prevent infection and complications caused by seasonal influenza. However, no study has analyzed the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccines in 50- to 64-year-olds in South Korea.

OBJECTIVE

We examined the application of the National Immunization Program (NIP) in 50- to 64-year-olds and compared the cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) with that of trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) in South Korea.

METHODS

One-year static model was assumed by constructing separate decision trees for age subgroups: 50-54, 55-59, and 60-64. Each subgroup was divided into at-risk and not-at-risk groups. Using circulation data from previous studies and Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we estimated the probabilities of influenza infection, outpatient treatment, hospitalization, and deaths. Medical cost was estimated from 2015 to 2017 National Health Insurance Sharing Service claim data, while productivity losses from work absenteeism or death were estimated from labor and economic surveys of Korean government. Disutility was estimated based on previous studies.

RESULTS

Compared with non-vaccination, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for the 50-54, 55-59, and 60-64 age groups for TIV were US$2010.90, US$2004.58, and US$1865.55, respectively, while for QIV were US$2187.17, US$2190.89, and US$2074.52, respectively. Compared with TIV, ICERs for QIV were US$4445.66, US$4578.06, and US$4751.93, respectively. All the aforementioned ICER values were lower than the 2017 Korean GDP per capita of US$29,742.839.

CONCLUSION

Implementing the NIP in the 50- to 64-year-old age group was found to be cost effective. Since both TIV and QIV were cost effective, we recommend QIV as the preferred option, based on its greater protection against Influenza B.

Cost-effectiveness of introducing an MF59-adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine for older adults in Argentina

INTRODUCTION

Influenza surveillance in Argentina reported influenza-like illness at a rate of 3500/100,000, a hospitalization rate of 15.5/100,000, and a death rate of 0.32/100,000 annually in adults aged over 65 years. The high burden of disease may be due to a combination of immunosenescence and the suboptimal clinical effectiveness of conventional, non-adjuvanted influenza vaccines in this age group. There is a clinical need for more effective influenza vaccines in this population. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of an MF59®-adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (aTIV) in adults aged over 65 years in Argentina compared with the non-adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) used under the current national vaccination policy.

METHODS

A decision tree cost-effectiveness model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of switching from TIV to aTIV in Argentinian older adults. The model compared cost and health benefits of vaccination in one influenza season from the payer perspective. The main predictions included survival, quality-adjusted survival, and costs. Model inputs were sourced from Argentina or internationally where local data was considered inaccurate. Vaccine efficacy assumptions were extracted from recently published, peer-reviewed scientific literature.

RESULTS

Switching from TIV to aTIV would result in 170 deaths averted and 1310 incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per QALY was US $2660.59 from the payer perspective. In all sensitivity analyses, aTIV remained highly cost-effective. The probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed a 95% CI per QALY of US $113.74-7721.67.

CONCLUSION

Introducing an adjuvanted influenza vaccine in Argentina is potentially beneficial and cost-effective relative to the currently-used TIV through the reduction of disease burden and utilization of healthcare resources.

A network meta-analysis of the efficacy and safety of baloxavir marboxil versus neuraminidase inhibitors for the treatment of influenza in otherwise healthy patients

Objective: Baloxavir marboxil (baloxavir) is the first cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitor being studied for the treatment of influenza in single oral dosing regimen. This network meta-analysis (NMA) evaluated the efficacy and safety of baloxavir compared to other antivirals for influenza in otherwise healthy patients. Methods: A systematic literature review was performed on 14 November 2016 in Medline, Embase, CENTRAL, and ICHUSHI to identify randomized controlled trials assessing antivirals for influenza. A NMA including 22 trials was performed to compare the efficacy and safety of baloxavir with other antivirals. Results: The time to alleviation of all symptoms was significantly shorter for baloxavir compared to zanamivir (difference in median time 19.96 h; 95% CrI [3.23, 39.07]). The time to cessation of viral shedding was significantly shorter for baloxavir than zanamivir and oseltamivir (47.00 h; 95% CrI [28.18, 73.86] and 56.03 h [33.74, 87.86], respectively). The mean decline in virus titer from baseline to 24 h was significantly greater for baloxavir than for the other drugs. Other differences in efficacy outcomes were not significant. No significant differences were found between baloxavir and the other antivirals for safety, except total drug-related adverse events where baloxavir demonstrated a decrease compared to oseltamivir and laninamivir. Conclusions: The NMA suggests that baloxavir demonstrated better or similar efficacy results compared to other antivirals with a comparable safety profile. Baloxavir led to a significant decrease in viral titer versus zanamivir, oseltamivir and peramivir and decreased viral shedding versus zanamivir and oseltamivir.

Bacterial sialoglycosidases in Virulence and Pathogenesis

Human oral microbiome and dysbiotic infections have been recently evidently identified. One of the major reasons for such dysbiosis is impairment of the immune system. Periodontitis is a chronic inflammatory disease affecting the tissues that surround and support the teeth. In the United States., approximately 65 million people are affected by this condition. Its occurrence is also associated with many important systemic diseases such as cardiovascular disease, rheumatoid arthritis, and Alzheimer’s disease. Among the most important etiologies of periodontitis is Porphyromonas gingivalis, a keystone bacterial pathogen. Keystone pathogens can orchestrate inflammatory disease by remodeling a normally benign microbiota causing imbalance between normal and pathogenic microbiota (dysbiosis). The important characteristics of P. gingivalis causing dysbiosis are its virulence factors which cause effective subversion of host defenses to its advantage allowing other pathogens to grow. Some of the mechanisms involved in these processes are still not well-understood. However, various microbial strategies target host sialoglycoproteins for immune dysregulation. In addition, the enzymes that break down sialoglycoproteins and sialoglycans are the “sialoglycoproteases”, resulting in exposed terminal sialic acid. This process could lead to pathogen-toll like receptor (TLR) interactions mediated through sialic acid receptor ligand mechanisms. Assessing the function of P. gingivalis sialoglycoproteases, could pave the way to designing carbohydrate analogues and sialic acid mimetics to serve as drug targets.

Cost-effectiveness of switching from trivalent to quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccines for the at-risk population in Italy

Seasonal influenza is caused by two subtypes of influenza A and two lineages of influenza B. Although trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs) contain both circulating A strains, they contain only a single B-lineage strain. This can lead to mismatches between the vaccine and predominant circulating B lineages, a concern especially for at-risk populations. Quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) containing a strain from both B lineages have been developed to improve protection against influenza. Here, we used a cost-utility model to examine whether switching from TIV to QIV would be cost-effective for the at-risk population in Italy. Costs were estimated from the payer and societal perspectives. The discount rate for outcomes was 3.0%. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the effects of variations in parameters. Switching from TIV to QIV in Italy was estimated to increase quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and produce cost savings, including €1.6 million for hospitalization and approximately €2 million in productivity. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €23,426 per QALY from a payer perspective and €21,096 per QALY from a societal perspective. Switching to QIV was most cost-effective for individuals ≥ 65 years of age (€19,170 per QALY). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the switching from TIV to QIV would be cost-effective for > 91% of simulation at a maximum willingness-to-pay threshold of €40,000 per QALY gained. Although the model did not take herd protection into account, it predicted that the switch from TIV to QIV would be cost-effective for the at-risk population in Italy.

Interventions to increase influenza vaccination rates of those 60 years and older in the community

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of interventions to increase influenza vaccination uptake in people aged 60 years and older varies by country and participant characteristics. This review updates versions published in 2010 and 2014.

OBJECTIVES

To assess access, provider, system, and societal interventions to increase the uptake of influenza vaccination in people aged 60 years and older in the community.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, which includes the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections Group's Specialised Register, MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and ERIC for this update, as well as WHO ICTRP and ClinicalTrials.gov for ongoing studies to 7 December 2017. We also searched the reference lists of included studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and cluster-randomised trials of interventions to increase influenza vaccination in people aged 60 years or older in the community.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard methodological procedures as specified by Cochrane.

MAIN RESULTS

We included three new RCTs for this update (total 61 RCTs; 1,055,337 participants). Trials involved people aged 60 years and older living in the community in high-income countries. Heterogeneity limited some meta-analyses. We assessed studies as at low risk of bias for randomisation (38%), allocation concealment (11%), blinding (44%), and selective reporting (100%). Half (51%) had missing data. We assessed the evidence as low-quality. We identified three levels of intervention intensity: low (e.g. postcards), medium (e.g. personalised phone calls), and high (e.g. home visits, facilitators).Increasing community demand (12 strategies, 41 trials, 53 study arms, 767,460 participants)One successful intervention that could be meta-analysed was client reminders or recalls by letter plus leaflet or postcard compared to reminder (odds ratio (OR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07 to 1.15; 3 studies; 64,200 participants). Successful interventions tested by single studies were patient outreach by retired teachers (OR 3.33, 95% CI 1.79 to 6.22); invitations by clinic receptionists (OR 2.72, 95% CI 1.55 to 4.76); nurses or pharmacists educating and nurses vaccinating patients (OR 152.95, 95% CI 9.39 to 2490.67); medical students counselling patients (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.35); and multiple recall questionnaires (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.24).Some interventions could not be meta-analysed due to significant heterogeneity: 17 studies tested simple reminders (11 with 95% CI entirely above unity); 16 tested personalised reminders (12 with 95% CI entirely above unity); two investigated customised compared to form letters (both 95% CI above unity); and four studies examined the impact of health risk appraisals (all had 95% CI above unity). One study of a lottery for free groceries was not effective.Enhancing vaccination access (6 strategies, 8 trials, 10 arms, 9353 participants)We meta-analysed results from two studies of home visits (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.61) and two studies that tested free vaccine compared to patient payment for vaccine (OR 2.36, 95% CI 1.98 to 2.82). We were unable to conduct meta-analyses of two studies of home visits by nurses plus a physician care plan (both with 95% CI above unity) and two studies of free vaccine compared to no intervention (both with 95% CI above unity). One study of group visits (OR 27.2, 95% CI 1.60 to 463.3) was effective, and one study of home visits compared to safety interventions was not.Provider- or system-based interventions (11 strategies, 15 trials, 17 arms, 278,524 participants)One successful intervention that could be meta-analysed focused on payments to physicians (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.77 to 2.77). Successful interventions tested by individual studies were: reminding physicians to vaccinate all patients (OR 2.47, 95% CI 1.53 to 3.99); posters in clinics presenting vaccination rates and encouraging competition between doctors (OR 2.03, 95% CI 1.86 to 2.22); and chart reviews and benchmarking to the rates achieved by the top 10% of physicians (OR 3.43, 95% CI 2.37 to 4.97).We were unable to meta-analyse four studies that looked at physician reminders (three studies with 95% CI above unity) and three studies of facilitator encouragement of vaccination (two studies with 95% CI above unity). Interventions that were not effective were: comparing letters on discharge from hospital to letters to general practitioners; posters plus postcards versus posters alone; educational reminders, academic detailing, and peer comparisons compared to mailed educational materials; educational outreach plus feedback to teams versus written feedback; and an intervention to increase staff vaccination rates.Interventions at the societal levelNo studies reported on societal-level interventions.Study funding sourcesStudies were funded by government health organisations (n = 33), foundations (n = 9), organisations that provided healthcare services in the studies (n = 3), and a pharmaceutical company offering free vaccines (n = 1). Fifteen studies did not report study funding sources.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We identified interventions that demonstrated significant positive effects of low (postcards), medium (personalised phone calls), and high (home visits, facilitators) intensity that increase community demand for vaccination, enhance access, and improve provider/system response. The overall GRADE assessment of the evidence was moderate quality. Conclusions are unchanged from the 2014 review.

Neuraminidase inhibitors for influenza: a systematic review and meta-analysis of regulatory and mortality data

BACKGROUND

Neuraminidase inhibitors (NIs) are stockpiled and recommended by public health agencies for treating and preventing seasonal and pandemic influenza. They are used clinically worldwide.

OBJECTIVES

To (1) describe the potential benefits and harms of NIs for influenza in all age groups by reviewing all clinical study reports (CSRs) of published and unpublished randomised, placebo-controlled trials and regulatory comments; and (2) determine the effect of oseltamivir (Tamiflu(®), Roche) treatment on mortality in patients with 2009A/H1N1 influenza.

METHODS

We searched trial registries, electronic databases and corresponded with regulators and sponsors to identify randomised trials of NIs. We requested full CSRs and accessed regulators' comments. We included only those trials for which we had CSRs. To examine the effects of oseltamivir on 2009A/H1N1 influenza mortality, we requested individual patient data (IPD) from corresponding authors of all included observational studies.

RESULTS

Effect of oseltamivir and zanamivir (Relenza®, GlaxoSmithKline) in the prevention and treatment of influenza: Oseltamivir reduced the time to first alleviation of symptoms in adults by 16.8 hours [95% confidence interval (CI) 8.4 to 25.1 hours]. Zanamivir reduced the time to first alleviation of symptoms in adults by 0.60 days (95% CI 0.39 to 0.81 days). Oseltamivir reduced unverified pneumonia in adult treatment [risk difference (RD) 1.00%, 95% CI 0.22% to 1.49%]; similar findings were observed with zanamivir prophylaxis in adults (RD 0.32%, 95% CI 0.09% to 0.41%). Oseltamivir treatment of adults increased the risk of nausea (RD 3.66%, 95% CI 0.90% to 7.39%) and vomiting (RD 4.56%, 95% CI 2.39% to 7.58%). In the treatment of children, oseltamivir induced vomiting (RD 5.34%, 95% CI 1.75% to 10.29%). Both oseltamivir and zanamivir prophylaxis reduced the risk of symptomatic influenza in individuals (oseltamivir RD 3.05%, 95% CI 1.83% to 3.88%; zanamivir RD 1.98%, 95% CI 0.98% to 2.54%) and in households (oseltamivir RD 13.6%, 95% CI 9.52% to 15.47%; zanamivir RD 14.84%, 95% CI 12.18% to 16.55%). Oseltamivir increased psychiatric adverse events in the combined on- and off-treatment periods (RD 1.06%, 95% CI 0.07% to 2.76%) and the risk of headaches while on treatment (RD 3.15%, 95% CI 0.88% to 5.78%). Effect of oseltamivir on mortality in patients with 2009A/H1N1 influenza: Analysis of summary data of 30 studies as well as IPD of four studies showed evidence of time-dependent bias. After adjusting for time-dependent bias and potential confounding variables, competing risks analysis of the IPD showed insufficient evidence that oseltamivir reduced the risk of mortality (hazard ratio 1.03, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.65).

CONCLUSIONS

Oseltamivir and zanamivir cause small reductions in the time to first alleviation of influenza symptoms in adults. The use of oseltamivir increases the risk of nausea, vomiting, psychiatric events in adults and vomiting in children. Oseltamivir has no protective effect on mortality among patients with 2009A/H1N1 influenza. Prophylaxis with either NI may reduce symptomatic influenza in individuals and in households. The balance between benefits and harms should be considered when making decisions about use of NIs for either prophylaxis or treatment of influenza.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012002245.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Non-specific Effect of Vaccines: Immediate Protection against Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection by a Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine

The non-specific effects (NSEs) of vaccines have been discussed for their potential long-term beneficial effects beyond direct protection against a specific pathogen. Cold-adapted, live attenuated influenza vaccine (CAIV) induces local innate immune responses that provide a broad range of antiviral immunity. Herein, we examined whether X-31ca, a donor virus for CAIVs, provides non-specific cross-protection against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). The degree of RSV replication was significantly reduced when X-31ca was administered before RSV infection without any RSV-specific antibody responses. The vaccination induced an immediate release of cytokines and infiltration of leukocytes into the respiratory tract, moderating the immune perturbation caused by RSV infection. The potency of protection against RSV challenge was significantly reduced in TLR3-/- TLR7-/- mice, confirming that the TLR3/7 signaling pathways are necessary for the observed immediate and short-term protection. The results suggest that CAIVs provide short-term, non-specific protection against genetically unrelated respiratory pathogens. The additional benefits of CAIVs in mitigating acute respiratory infections for which vaccines are not yet available need to be assessed in future studies.

Cost-utility of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine in Brazil - comparison of outcomes from different static model types

Background

Influenza burden in Brazil is considerable with 4.2–6.4 million cases in 2008 and influenza-like-illness responsible for 16.9% of hospitalizations. Cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination may be assessed by different types of models, with limitations due to data availability, assumptions, and modelling approach.

Objective

To understand the impact of model complexity, the cost-utility of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccines in Brazil was estimated using three distinct models: a 1-year decision tree population model with three age groups (FLOU); a more detailed 1-year population model with five age groups (FLORA); and a more complex lifetime multi-cohort Markov model with nine age groups (FLORENCE).

Methods

Analysis 1 (impact of model structure) compared each model using the same data inputs (i.e., best available data for FLOU). Analysis 2 (impact of increasing granularity) compared each model populated with the best available data for that model.

Results

Using the best data for each model, the discounted cost-utility ratio of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine was R$20,428 with FLOU, R$22,768 with FLORA (versus R$20,428 in Analysis 1), and, R$19,257 with FLORENCE (versus R$22,490 in Analysis 1) using a lifetime horizon. Conceptual differences between FLORA and FLORENCE meant the same assumption regarding increased all-cause mortality in at-risk individuals had an opposite effect on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in Analysis 2 versus 1, and a proportionally higher number of vaccinated elderly in FLORENCE reduced this ratio in Analysis 2.

Discussion

FLOU provided adequate cost-effectiveness estimates with data in broad age groups. FLORA increased insights (e.g., in healthy versus at-risk, paediatric, respiratory/non-respiratory complications). FLORENCE provided greater insights and precision (e.g., in elderly, costs and complications, lifetime cost-effectiveness).

Conclusion

All three models predicted a cost per quality-adjusted life year gained for quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine in the range of R$19,257 (FLORENCE) to R$22,768 (FLORA) with the best available data in Brazil (Appendix A).

Influenza vaccine use to protect healthy children: A debated topic

At the beginning of this century, a number of studies suggested that in healthy children, particularly those <2years of age, influenza could have a serious and complicated course, as it frequently led to hospitalization and sometimes, albeit rarely, to death. Moreover, pre-schoolers and school-age children were found to be among the most important causes of influenza transmission to the community, as they shed the virus for a longer time than adults and had frequent contact with greater numbers of individuals through day-care and school. These findings led a number of health authorities to modify the official recommendations regarding the use of influenza vaccine in healthy children. Several factors seem to indicate that vaccination against influenza in healthy children of any age and in pregnant women could be effective in preventing the disease in the entire paediatric population and in providing herd immunity in adults and old people as well. The direct advantages of the vaccine seem greater in younger subjects, particularly those <2-3years of age. Vaccination of older children is considered effective by most experts, but high vaccination coverage of these subjects has been difficult to attain. Similar difficulties have been identified for the vaccination of pregnant women. These challenges can be overcome, at least in part, by appropriate information and accurate evaluations of available data. In addition, further studies specifically designed to clarify unresolved problems regarding vaccine use in paediatric and pregnant populations are needed to convince reluctant health authorities. More effective vaccines for younger children as well as improved availability of data regarding the optimal time period for vaccine administration in pregnant women appear relevant in this regard.

History and current trends in influenza virus infections with special reference to Sri Lanka

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that approximately one billion people are infected and up to 500,000 people die from influenza each year in the world. Influenza is considered to be the greatest killer of the human populations, due to the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed millions around the world. Despite the effective treatment available against influenza, it still contributes to significant morbidity and mortality. Currently circulating influenza strains in humans include influenza A (H1N1)pdm09, influenza A (H3N2) and influenza B viruses, (B/Victoria and B/Yamagata). Influenza has been prevalent in Sri Lanka from 1969, since then it continued to cause morbidity and mortality in children and adults. The current global influenza surveillance network monitors the global influenza activity through WHO collaborating centres. The Medical Research Institute monitors and diagnoses influenza cases in the country as part of the WHO network laboratories. Vaccinations to high risk groups and antiviral therapy for the successful prevention of influenza have been practiced in Sri Lanka. This review highlights the impact of influenza on public health in Sri Lanka including the historical aspects, current diagnostic practices and prevention approaches in high risk individuals in the country.

Comparative Analysis of the Japanese Version of the Revised Impact of Event Scale: A Study of Firefighters

Introduction:

The Impact of Event Scale Revised (IES-R) has been used in various epidemiological studies to assess the prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Previous studies using the IES-R Japanese version to assess the mental health of firefighters were based on the premise that firefighters had experienced a traumatic event(s) as a matter of course. However, use of the IES-R-J does not indicate whether or not a traumatic event was experienced. The purpose of this study is to clarify the differences between: (1) IES-R-J high and low score groups; and (2) those who report symptoms similar to those of PTSD with and without having been being exposed to a traumatic event.

Methods:

Questionnaire packets distributed to all 157 workers in a Japanese fire station included the IES-R, the Japan Brief Job Stress Questionnaire, a questionnaire regarding traumatic event experiences, and demographic questions. Participants who scored ≥25 points on the IES-R-J scale were defined as the PTSD high risk (HR) group; those with scores <25 points as the PTSD low risk (LR) group.

Results:

One hundred thirty-one of the 157 subjects (83.4%) responded to the questionnaire; three were excluded from the analysis because of missing data. The mean total IES-R-J score was 14.9 ±15.2. Twenty-eight subjects scored in the PTSD HR group (≥25); 100 scored in the LR group (<25). A total of 54 (42.2%) participants had experienced a traumatic event; 57.8% had not. In the HR group, 14 subjects had experienced a traumatic event and 14 had not. Participants who had experienced a traumatic event reported a higher incidence of intrusion/re-experience symptoms than did those who had not experienced a traumatic event. The level of social support significantly affected the risk for PTSD.

Firefighters who scored ≥25 on the IES-R-J and, thus, considered to be at high risk for the development of PTSD, were less confident about their health, experienced more job stressors and had less social support than did those whose IES-R-J scores were <25. Having experienced a traumatic event was reported by only 42% of all the participants and by only 50% of those in the high risk PTSD group.

Conclusions:

Although the IES-R is an easily-administered tool useful in epidemiological studies evaluating psychological stress, it is recommended that the questionnaire be amended to include a question regarding the existence of a threatened experience or event and to analyze the data using positive and negative predictive value methodology.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine in Taiwan: A lifetime multi-cohort model

A government-funded trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) program to prevent seasonal influenza was implemented in Taiwan since 1998. However, mismatch between the vaccine and circulating strains may occur. Alternatively, a quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) includes all 4 influenza lineages could minimize the risk of mismatches. Therefore, QIV could be considered as an alternative strategy to enhance protection against seasonal influenza. The objective of the study was to analyze, from a governmental perspective, the cost-effectiveness of using QIV vs. TIV as a vaccination strategy in Taiwan. A lifetime multi-cohort, static Markov model was constructed with 9 age groups to assess the costs and effectiveness of QIV vs. TIV. Direct costs were obtained from a database released by the Ministry of Health and Welfare. Outcomes included life-years gained, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, influenza cases avoided and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). The discount rate of costs and effectiveness was set at 3.5% and the time horizon used in the model was 100 y. Results show that a vaccination strategy utilizing QIV instead of TIV would bring an additional 10,557 QALYs at an extra cost of US$39.4 million, yielding an ICER of US$3,015.07 per QALY gained. When setting the willingness-to-pay threshold at US$10,000, compared to TIV, the probability that QIV would be cost-effective was 98%. Sensitivity analyses show that ICER was sensitive to the changes of circulation of influenza virus subtypes and vaccine mismatch. From a governmental perspective, the QIV vaccination could be considered as a cost-effective strategy within the context of public health in Taiwan.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the direct and indirect impact of intranasal live attenuated influenza vaccination strategies in children: alternative country profiles

BACKGROUND

Influenza poses a significant burden on healthcare systems and society, with under-recognition in the paediatric population. Existing vaccination policies (largely) target the elderly and other risk groups where complications may arise.

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of annual paediatric vaccination (in 2-17-year-olds) with live attenuated influenza vaccination (LAIV), as well as the protective effect on the wider population in England and Wales (base). The study aimed to demonstrate broad applications of the model in countries where epidemiological and transmission data is limited and that have sophisticated vaccination policies (Brazil, Spain, and Taiwan).

METHODS

The direct and indirect impact of LAIV in the paediatric cohort was simulated using an age-stratified dynamic transmission model over a 5-year time horizon of daily cycles and applying discounting of 3.5% in the base case. Pre-existing immunity structure was based on a 1-year model run. Sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

In the base case for England and Wales, the annual paediatric strategy with LAIV was associated with improvements in influenza-related events and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost, yielding an incremental cost per QALY of £6,208. The model was robust to change in the key input parameters. The probabilistic analysis demonstrated LAIV to be cost effective in more than 99% of iterations, assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of £30,000. Incremental costs per QALY for Brazil were £2,817, and for the cases of Spain and Taiwan the proposed strategy was dominant over the current practice.

CONCLUSION

In addition to existing policies, annual paediatric vaccination using LAIV provides a cost-effective strategy that offers direct and indirect protection in the wider community. Paediatric vaccination strategies using LAIV demonstrated clinical and economic benefits over alternative (current vaccination) strategies in England and Wales as well as Brazil, Spain, and Taiwan.

Cost-Effectiveness of Increasing Influenza Vaccination Coverage in Adults with Type 2 Diabetes in Turkey

Objective

In Turkey, the prevalence of diabetes is high but the influenza vaccination coverage rate (VCR) is low (9.1% in 2014), despite vaccination being recommended and reimbursed. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of increasing the influenza VCR of adults with type 2 diabetes in Turkey to 20%.

Methods

A decision-analytic model was adapted to Turkey using data derived from published sources. Direct medical costs and indirect costs due to productivity loss were included in the societal perspective. The time horizon was set at 1 year to reflect the seasonality of influenza.

Results

Increasing the VCR for adults with type 2 diabetes to 20% is predicted to avert an additional 19,777 influenza cases, 2376 hospitalizations, and 236 deaths. Associated influenza costs avoided were estimated at more than 8.3 million Turkish Lira (TRY), while the cost of vaccination would be more than TRY 8.4 million. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was estimated at TRY 64/quality-adjusted life years, which is below the per capita gross domestic product of TRY 21,511 and therefore very cost-effective according to World Health Organization guidelines. Factors most influencing the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio were the excess hospitalization rate, inpatient cost, vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization, and influenza attack rate. Increasing the VCR to >20% was also estimated to be very cost-effective.

Conclusions

Increasing the VCR for adults with type 2 diabetes in Turkey to ≥20% would be very cost-effective.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of quadrivalent influenza vaccine in Spain

Influenza has a major impact on healthcare systems and society, but can be prevented using vaccination. The World Health Organization (WHO) currently recommends that influenza vaccines should include at least two virus A and one virus B lineage (trivalent vaccine; TIV). A new quadrivalent vaccine (QIV), which includes an additional B virus strain, received regulatory approval and is now recommended by several countries. The present study estimates the cost-effectiveness of replacing TIVs with QIV for risk groups and elderly population in Spain. A static, lifetime, multi-cohort Markov model with a one-year cycle time was adapted to assess the costs and health outcomes associated with a switch from TIV to QIV. The model followed a cohort vaccinated each year according to health authority recommendations, for the duration of their lives. National epidemiological data allowed the determination of whether the B strain included in TIVs matched the circulating one. Societal perspective was considered, costs and outcomes were discounted at 3% and one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Compared to TIVs, QIV reduced more influenza cases and influenza-related complications and deaths during periods of B-mismatch strains in the TIV. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was 8,748€/quality-adjusted life year (QALY). One-way sensitivity analysis showed mismatch with the B lineage included in the TIV was the main driver for ICER. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows ICER below 30,000€/QALY in 96% of simulations. Replacing TIVs with QIV in Spain could improve influenza prevention by avoiding B virus mismatch and provide a cost-effective healthcare intervention.

Economic evaluation of HBV vaccination: A systematic review of recent publications (2000-2013)

AIM

To conduct a systematic review of the economic evaluations (EE) of HBV vaccination, taking also into account the studies published in the new millennium.

METHODS

An extensive scientific literature review was conducted using two electronic medical journal databases: Scopus and PubMed engines for published studies on EE of HBV vaccination.

RESULTS

22 articles were reviewed, 9, 5 and 8 cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit and cost-utility analysis, respectively. Studies were mainly concerning EE of universal vaccination (UV), mostly with regards to low or low-medium income countries. For high income countries, EE were focused on the possible implementation of HBV vaccination in particular settings, such as diabetic, renal and other chronic conditions care, as well as infectious diseasesUV has usually a very good cost-effectiveness ratio (80%), ranging from cost-saving (China) or few Euro per LY/QALY gained (in Thailand, and Vietnam) to 630.00$/QALY in USA (Asian and Pacific Islands) Moreover, EE of HBV vaccination are favorable in the infectious diseases field as well as for chronic conditions. In relation to diabetes the studies gave controversial results.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review highlighted the importance of introducing HBV vaccination not only for infant UV program but also for other settings in which patients are people affected by communicable and non-communicable diseases.

Sources and Characteristics of Utility Weights for Economic Evaluation of Pediatric Vaccines: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Cost-effectiveness analysis of pediatric vaccines for infectious diseases often requires quality-of-life (utility) weights.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate how utility weights have been elicited and used in this context.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted of studies published between January 1990 and July 2013 that elicited or used utility weights in cost-effectiveness analyses of vaccines for pediatric populations. The review focused on vaccines for 17 infectious diseases and is presented following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology.

RESULTS

A total of 6410 titles and abstracts and 225 full-text articles were reviewed. Of those selected for inclusion (n = 101), 15 articles described the elicitation of utility weights and 86 described economic modeling studies using utilities. Various methods were used to generate utilities, including time trade-off, contingent valuation, and willingness to pay, as well as a preference-based measure with associated value sets, such as the EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire or the Health Utilities Index. In modeling studies, the source of utilities used was often unclear, poorly reported, or based on weak underlying evidence. We found no articles that reported on the elicitation or use of utilities in diphtheria, polio, or tetanus.

CONCLUSIONS

The scarcity of appropriate utility weights for vaccine-preventable infectious diseases in children and a lack of standardization in their use in economic assessments limit the ability to accurately assess the benefits associated with interventions to prevent infectious diseases. This is an issue that should be of concern to those making decisions regarding the prevention and treatment of infectious childhood illnesses.

Neuraminidase inhibitors for the treatment of influenza infection in people with cystic fibrosis

BACKGROUND

Cystic fibrosis is the most common, life-threatening, recessively inherited disease of Caucasian populations. It is a multisystem disorder caused by a mutation in the gene encoding the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator protein which is important in producing sweat, digestive juices and mucus.The impaired or absent function of this protein results in the production of viscous mucus within the lungs and an environment that is susceptible to chronic airway obstruction and pulmonary colonization by a range of pathogenic bacteria. Morbidity and mortality of cystic fibrosis is related to chronic pulmonary sepsis and its complications by these bacteria.Influenza can worsen the course of the disease in cystic fibrosis by increasing the risk of pneumonia and secondary respiratory complications. Antiviral agents form an important part of influenza management and include the neuraminidase inhibitors zanamivir and oseltamivir. These inhibitors can limit the infection and prevent the spread of the virus.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of neuraminidase inhibitors for the treatment of influenza infection in people with cystic fibrosis.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Cystic Fibrosis and Genetic Disorders Group Trials Register comprising references identified from comprehensive electronic database searches and handsearches of relevant journals and abstract books of conference proceedings.Most recent search: 02 November 2015.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials and quasi-randomised controlled trials comparing neuraminidase inhibitors with placebo or other antiviral drugs.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors had planned to independently screen studies, extract data and assess risk of bias using standard Cochrane methodologies. No studies were identified for inclusion.

MAIN RESULTS

No relevant studies were retrieved after a comprehensive search of the literature.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We were unable to identify any randomised controlled studies or quasi-randomised controlled studies on the efficacy of neuraminidase inhibitors for the treatment of influenza infection in people with cystic fibrosis. The absence of high level evidence for the effectiveness of these interventions emphasises the need for well-designed, adequately powered, randomised controlled clinical studies.

Cost-effectiveness evaluation of quadrivalent influenza vaccines for seasonal influenza prevention: a dynamic modeling study of Canada and the United Kingdom

Background

The adoption of quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) to replace trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) in immunization programs is growing worldwide, thus helping to address the problem of influenza B lineage mismatch. However, the price per dose of QIV is higher than that of TIV. In such circumstances, cost-effectiveness analyses provide important and relevant information to inform national health recommendations and implementation decisions. This analysis assessed potential vaccine impacts and cost-effectiveness of a country-wide switch from TIV to QIV, in Canada and the UK, from a third-party payer perspective.

Methods

An age-stratified, dynamic four-strain transmission model which incorporates strain interaction, transmission-rate seasonality and age-specific mixing in the population was used. Model input data were obtained from published literature and online databases. In Canada, we evaluated a switch from TIV to QIV in the entire population. For the UK, we considered two strategies: Children aged 2–17 years who receive the live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) switch to the quadrivalent formulation (QLAIV), while individuals aged > 18 years switch from TIV to QIV. Two different vaccination uptake scenarios in children (UK1 and UK2, which differ in the vaccine uptake level) were considered. Health and cost outcomes for both vaccination strategies, and the cost-effectiveness of switching from TIV/LAIV to QIV/QLAIV, were estimated from the payer perspective. For Canada and the UK, cost and outcomes were discounted using 5 % and 3.5 % per year, respectively.

Results

Overall, in an average influenza season, our model predicts that a nationwide switch from TIV to QIV would prevent 4.6 % influenza cases, 4.9 % general practitioner (GP) visits, 5.7 % each of emergency room (ER) visits and hospitalizations, and 6.8 % deaths in Canada. In the UK (UK1/UK2), implementing QIV would prevent 1.4 %/1.8 % of influenza cases, 1.6 %/2.0 % each of GP and ER visits, 1.5 %/1.9 % of hospitalizations and 4.3 %/4.9 % of deaths. Discounted incremental cost-utility ratios of $7,961 and £7,989/£7,234 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained are estimated for Canada and the UK (UK1/UK2), both of which are well within their respective cost-effectiveness threshold values.

Conclusions

Switching from TIV to QIV is expected to be a cost-effective strategy to further reduce the burden of influenza in both countries.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-015-1193-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Influenza and respiratory syncytial viruses: Efficacy of different diagnostic assays

Objective:

To determine the efficacy of cell culture, immunoflourescence Assay (IFA) and real time polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) in relation to diagnosis of influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV).

Methods:

Total 2781 specimens of throat swabs and nasopharyngeal aspirates were obtained from patients suspected of respiratory viruses’ infections from January 2009 to December 2011 at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Medical Centre(UKMMC). The specimens were processed by cell culture and immunoflurescence assay (IFA) and (rRT-PCR).

Results:

Thirty three (1.19%) specimens were positive for influenza virus A and 42 (1.51%) were positive for RSV by cell culture and IFA. On the other hand, rRT-PCR was able to identify 189 of 505 (37.43%) specimens in which 65 were influenza A virus and 124 were RSV. Sensitivity of rRT-PCR was 100% for both influenza A virus and RSV and specificity was 88% and 77% for influenza A virus and RSV, respectively.

Conclusion:

rRT-PCR diagnosed respiratory viruses in shorter time with a high level of sensitivity in comparison to conventional assays - cell culture and IFA. These advantages help in managing patients by saving cost and hospitalization stay.

Psychiatric Symptoms in a Patient with Influenza A (H1N1) Treated with Oseltamivir (Tamiflu): A Case Report

Oseltamivir is the most common antiviral drug used to treat and prevent influenza. Epidemiological studies performed in Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom indicate that oseltamivir may cause psychiatric symptoms; however, the underlying mechanism has not been elucidated. In South Korea, interest in oseltamivir has increased with the spread of the new influenza virus; however, no case report or investigation of psychiatric symptoms associated with the drug has been reported to date. Here, we report a case o0f a 22-year-old male who complained of mood swings, suicidal feelings, auditory hallucinations, memory deterioration, and insomnia after taking oseltamivir.

An Assessment of the Expected Cost-Effectiveness of Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccines in Ontario, Canada Using a Static Model

Ontario, Canada, immunizes against influenza using a trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV3) under a Universal Influenza Immunization Program (UIIP). The UIIP offers IIV3 free-of-charge to all Ontarians over 6 months of age. A newly approved quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV4) offers wider protection against influenza B disease. We explored the expected cost-utility and budget impact of replacing IIV3 with IIV4, within the context of Ontario’s UIIP, using a probabilistic and static cost-utility model. Wherever possible, epidemiological and cost data were obtained from Ontario sources. Canadian or U.S. sources were used when Ontario data were not available. Vaccine efficacy for IIV3 was obtained from the literature. IIV4 efficacy was derived from meta-analysis of strain-specific vaccine efficacy. Conservatively, herd protection was not considered. In the base case, we used IIV3 and IIV4 prices of $5.5/dose and $7/dose, respectively. We conducted a sensitivity analysis on the price of IIV4, as well as standard univariate and multivariate statistical uncertainty analyses. Over a typical influenza season, relative to IIV3, IIV4 is expected to avert an additional 2,516 influenza cases, 1,683 influenza-associated medical visits, 27 influenza-associated hospitalizations, and 5 influenza-associated deaths. From a societal perspective, IIV4 would generate 76 more Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and a net societal budget impact of $4,784,112. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio for this comparison was $63,773/QALY. IIV4 remains cost-effective up to a 53% price premium over IIV3. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that IIV4 was cost-effective with a probability of 65% for a threshold of $100,000/QALY gained. IIV4 is expected to achieve reductions in influenza-related morbidity and mortality compared to IIV3. Despite not accounting for herd protection, IIV4 is still expected to be a cost-effective alternative to IIV3 up to a price premium of 53%. Our conclusions were robust in the face of sensitivity analyses.

Prompt Oseltamivir Therapy Reduces Medical Care and Mortality for Patients With Influenza Infection: An Asian Population Cohort Study

There are limited population-based studies on the progress of oseltamivir therapy for influenza infection.Using insurance claims data of 2005, 2009, and 2010, the authors established an "in-time" cohort and a "lag-time" cohort representing influenza patients taking the medicine within and not within 1 week to examine the treatment progress. Incident outpatient visit, emergency care and hospitalization, and fatality were compared between the 2 cohorts in the first week and the second week of follow-up periods, after the oseltamivir therapy.A total of 112,492 subjects diagnosed with influenza on oseltamivir therapy in 2005, 2009, and 2010 were identified. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the in-time treatment was superior to the lag-time treatment with less repeat outpatient visits, hospitalizations, and fatality. The overall corresponding in-time treatment to lag-time treatment odds ratios (OR) were 0.50, 0.54, and 0.71 (all P value < 0.05), respectively. The in-time to lag-time ORs of all events were 0.50 in 2009 and 0.54 in 2010.Our study demonstrates that the in-time oseltamivir therapy leads to significantly better treatment outcomes. Oseltamivir should be administered as early as the onset of influenza symptoms appears.

Natural attack rate of influenza in unvaccinated children and adults: a meta-regression analysis

Background

The natural (i.e. unvaccinated population) attack rate of an infectious disease is an important parameter required for understanding disease transmission. As such, it is an input parameter in infectious disease mathematical models. Influenza is an infectious disease that poses a major health concern worldwide and the natural attack rate of this disease is crucial in determining the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of public health interventions and informing surveillance program design. We estimated age-stratified, strain-specific natural attack rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza in unvaccinated individuals.

Methods

Utilizing an existing systematic review, we calculated the attack rates in the trial placebo arms using a random effects model and a meta-regression analysis (GSK study identifier: 117102).

Results

This post-hoc analysis included 34 RCTs (Randomized Control Trials) contributing to 47 influenza seasons from 1970 to 2009. Meta-regression analyses showed that age and type of influenza were important covariates. The attack rates (95% CI (Confidence Interval)) in adults for all influenza, type A and type B were 3.50% (2.30%, 4.60%), 2.32% (1.47%, 3.17%) and 0.59% (0.28%, 0.91%) respectively. For children, they were 15.20% (11.40%, 18.90%), 12.27% (8.56%, 15.97%) and 5.50% (3.49%, 7.51%) respectively.

Conclusions

This analysis demonstrated that unvaccinated children have considerably higher exposure risk than adults and influenza A can cause more disease than influenza B. Moreover, a higher ratio of influenza B:A in children than adults was observed. This study provides a new, stratified and up to-date natural attack rates that can be used in influenza infectious disease models and are consistent with previous published work in the field.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-014-0670-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Vaccination of children with a live-attenuated, intranasal influenza vaccine - analysis and evaluation through a Health Technology Assessment

BACKGROUND

Influenza is a worldwide prevalent infectious disease of the respiratory tract annually causing high morbidity and mortality in Germany. Influenza is preventable by vaccination and this vaccination is so far recommended by the The German Standing Committee on Vaccination (STIKO) as a standard vaccination for people from the age of 60 onwards. Up to date a parenterally administered trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) has been in use almost exclusively. Since 2011 however a live-attenuated vaccine (LAIV) has been approved additionally. Consecutively, since 2013 the STIKO recommends LAIV (besides TIV) for children from 2 to 17 years of age, within the scope of vaccination by specified indications. LAIV should be preferred administered in children from 2 to 6 of age. The objective of this Health Technology Assessment (HTA) is to address various research issues regarding the vaccination of children with LAIV. The analysis was performed from a medical, epidemiological and health economic perspective, as well as from an ethical, social and legal point of view.

METHOD

An extensive systematic database research was performed to obtain relevant information. In addition a supplementary research by hand was done. Identified literature was screened in two passes by two independent reviewers using predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Included literature was evaluated in full-text using acknowledged standards. Studies were graded with the highest level of evidence (1++), if they met the criteria of European Medicines Agency (EMA)-Guidance: Points to consider on applications with 1. meta-analyses; 2. one pivotal study.

RESULTS

For the medical section, the age of the study participants ranges from 6 months to 17 years. Regarding study efficacy, in children aged 6 months to ≤7 years, LAIV is superior to placebo as well as to a vac-cination with TIV (Relative Risk Reduction - RRR - of laboratory confirmed influenza infection approx. 80% and 50%, respectively). In children aged >7 to 17 years (= 18th year of their lives), LAIV is superior to a vaccination with TIV (RRR 32%). For this age group, no studies that compared LAIV with placebo were identified. It can be concluded that there is high evidence for superior efficacy of LAIV (compared to placebo or TIV) among children aged 6 months to ≤7 years. For children from >7 to 17 years, there is moderate evidence for superiority of LAIV for children with asthma, while direct evidence for children from the general population is lacking for this age group. Due to the efficacy of LAIV in children aged 6 months to ≤7 years (high evidence) and the efficacy of LAIV in children with asthma aged >7 to 17 years (moderate evidence), LAIV is also very likely to be efficacious among children in the general population aged >7 to 17 years (indirect evidence). In the included studies with children aged 2 to 17 years, LAIV was safe and well-tolerated; while in younger children LAIV may increase the risk of obstruction of the airways (e.g. wheezing). In the majority of the evaluated epidemiological studies, LAIV proved to be effective in the prevention of influenza among children aged 2-17 years under everyday conditions (effectiveness). The trend appears to indicate that LAIV is more effective than TIV, although this can only be based on limited evidence for methodological reasons (observational studies). In addition to a direct protective effect for vaccinated children themselves, indirect protective ("herd protection") effects were reported among non-vaccinated elderly population groups, even at relatively low vaccination coverage of children. With regard to safety, LAIV generally can be considered equivalent to TIV. This also applies to the use among children with mild chronically obstructive conditions, from whom LAIV therefore does not have to be withheld. In all included epidemiological studies, there was some risk of bias identified, e.g. due to residual confounding or other methodology-related sources of error. In the evaluated studies, both the vaccination of children with previous illnesses and the routine vaccination of (healthy) children frequently involve cost savings. This is especially the case if one includes indirect costs from a societal perspective. From a payer perspective, a routine vaccination of children is often regarded as a highly cost-effective intervention. However, not all of the studies arrive at consistent results. In isolated cases, relatively high levels of cost-effectiveness are reported that make it difficult to perform a conclusive assessment from an economic perspective. Based on the included studies, it is not possible to make a clear statement about the budget impact of using LAIV. None of the evaluated studies provides results for the context of the German healthcare setting. The efficacy of the vaccine, physicians' recommendations, and a potential reduction in influenza symptoms appear to play a role in the vaccination decision taken by parents/custodians on behalf of their children. Major barriers to the utilization of influenza vaccination services are a low level of perception and an underestimation of the disease risk, reservations concerning the safety and efficacy of the vaccine, and potential side effects of the vaccine. For some of the parents surveyed, the question as to whether the vaccine is administered as an injection or nasal spray might also be important.

CONCLUSION

In children aged 2 to 17 years, the use of LAIV can lead to a reduction of the number of influenza cases and the associated burden of disease. In addition, indirect preventive effects may be expected, especially among elderly age groups. Currently there are no data available for the German healthcare setting. Long-term direct and indirect effectiveness and safety should be supported by surveillance programs with a broader use of LAIV. Since there is no general model available for the German healthcare setting, statements concerning the cost-effectiveness can be made only with precaution. Beside this there is a need to conduct health eco-nomic studies to show the impact of influenza vaccination for children in Germany. Such studies should be based on a dynamic transmission model. Only these models are able to include the indirect protective effects of vaccination correctly. With regard to ethical, social and legal aspects, physicians should discuss with parents the motivations for vaccinating their children and upcoming barriers in order to achieve broader vaccination coverage. The present HTA provides an extensive basis for further scientific approaches and pending decisions relating to health policy.

Interventions to increase influenza vaccination rates of those 60 years and older in the community

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of interventions to increase the uptake of influenza vaccination in people aged 60 and older is uncertain.

OBJECTIVES

To assess access, provider, system and societal interventions to increase the uptake of influenza vaccination in people aged 60 years and older in the community.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL (2014, Issue 5), MEDLINE (January 1950 to May week 3 2014), EMBASE (1980 to June 2014), AgeLine (1978 to 4 June 2014), ERIC (1965 to June 2014) and CINAHL (1982 to June 2014).

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of interventions to increase influenza vaccination uptake in people aged 60 and older.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently assessed study quality and extracted influenza vaccine uptake data.

MAIN RESULTS

This update identified 13 new RCTs; the review now includes a total of 57 RCTs with 896,531 participants. The trials included community-dwelling seniors in high-income countries. Heterogeneity limited meta-analysis. The percentage of trials with low risk of bias for each domain was as follows: randomisation (33%); allocation concealment (11%); blinding (44%); missing data (49%) and selective reporting (100%). Increasing community demand (32 trials, 10 strategies)The interventions with a statistically significant result were: three trials (n = 64,200) of letter plus leaflet/postcard compared to letter (odds ratio (OR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07 to 1.15); two trials (n = 614) of nurses/pharmacists educating plus vaccinating patients (OR 3.29, 95% CI 1.91 to 5.66); single trials of a phone call from a senior (n = 193) (OR 3.33, 95% CI 1.79 to 6.22), a telephone invitation versus clinic drop-in (n = 243) (OR 2.72, 95% CI 1.55 to 4.76), a free groceries lottery (n = 291) (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.76) and nurses educating and vaccinating patients (n = 485) (OR 152.95, 95% CI 9.39 to 2490.67).We did not pool the following trials due to considerable heterogeneity: postcard/letter/pamphlets (16 trials, n = 592,165); tailored communications (16 trials, n = 388,164); customised letter/phone-call (four trials, n = 82,465) and client-based appraisals (three trials, n = 4016), although several trials showed the interventions were effective. Enhancing vaccination access (10 trials, six strategies)The interventions with a statistically significant result were: two trials (n = 2112) of home visits compared to clinic invitation (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.61); two trials (n = 2251) of free vaccine (OR 2.36, 95% CI 1.98 to 2.82) and one trial (n = 321) of patient group visits (OR 24.85, 95% CI 1.45 to 425.32). One trial (n = 350) of a home visit plus vaccine encouragement compared to a home visit plus safety advice was non-significant.We did not pool the following trials due to considerable heterogeneity: nurse home visits (two trials, n = 2069) and free vaccine compared to no intervention (two trials, n = 2250). Provider- or system-based interventions (17 trials, 11 strategies)The interventions with a statistically significant result were: two trials (n = 2815) of paying physicians (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.77 to 2.77); one trial (n = 316) of reminding physicians about all their patients (OR 2.47, 95% CI 1.53 to 3.99); one trial (n = 8376) of posters plus postcards (OR 2.03, 95% CI 1.86 to 2.22); one trial (n = 1360) of chart review/feedback (OR 3.43, 95% CI 2.37 to 4.97) and one trial (n = 27,580) of educational outreach/feedback (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.81).Trials of posters plus postcards versus posters (n = 5753), academic detailing (n = 1400) and increasing staff vaccination rates (n = 26,432) were non-significant.We did not pool the following trials due to considerable heterogeneity: reminding physicians (four trials, n = 202,264) and practice facilitators (three trials, n = 2183), although several trials showed the interventions were effective. Interventions at the societal level We identified no RCTs of interventions at the societal level.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There are interventions that are effective for increasing community demand for vaccination, enhancing access and improving provider/system response. Heterogeneity limited pooling of trials.

The potential cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine in elderly people and clinical risk groups in the UK: a lifetime multi-cohort model

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent influenza vaccine compared with trivalent influenza vaccine in the UK.

METHODS

A lifetime, multi-cohort, static Markov model was constructed, with nine age groups each divided into healthy and at-risk categories. Influenza A and B were accounted for separately. The model was run in one-year cycles for a lifetime (maximum age: 100 years). The analysis was from the perspective of the UK National Health Service. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5%. 2010 UK vaccination policy (vaccination of people at risk and those aged ≥65 years) was applied. Herd effect was not included. Inputs were derived from national databases and published sources where possible. The quadrivalent influenza vaccine price was not available when the study was conducted. It was estimated at £6.72,15% above the trivalent vaccine price of £5.85. Sensitivity analyses used an incremental price of up to 50%.

RESULTS

Compared with trivalent influenza vaccine, the quadrivalent influenza vaccine would be expected to reduce the numbers of influenza cases by 1,393,720, medical visits by 439,852 complications by 167,357, hospitalisations for complications by 26,424 and influenza deaths by 16,471. The estimated base case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £5,299/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Sensitivity analyses indicated that the ICER was sensitive to changes in circulation of influenza virus subtypes and vaccine mismatch; all other parameters had little effect. In 96% of simulations the ICER was <£20,000/QALY. Since this analysis was completed, quadrivalent influenza vaccine has become available in the UK at a list price of £9.94. Using this price in the model, the estimated ICER for quadrivalent compared with trivalent vaccination was £27,378/QALY, still within the NICE cost-effectiveness threshold (£20,000-£30,000).

CONCLUSIONS

Quadrivalent influenza vaccine could reduce influenza disease burden and would be cost-effective compared with trivalent influenza vaccine in elderly people and clinical risk groups in the UK.

Use of implicit and explicit bayesian methods in health technology assessment

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to examine the use of implicit and explicit Bayesian methods in health technology assessments and to identify whether this has changed over time.

METHODS

A review of all health technology assessment (HTA) reports of secondary research published by the UK National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) between 1997 and 2011. Data were extracted on the use and implementation of Bayesian methods, whether defined as such by the original authors (i.e., explicit) or not (i.e., implicit).

RESULTS

A total of 155 of 375 (41 percent) NIHR HTA reports, identified as relevant to this review, contained a Bayesian analysis. Of these, 128 (83 percent) contained an implicit Bayesian analysis, 3 (2 percent) an explicit Bayesian analysis and 24 (15 percent) both implicit and explicit Bayesian analyses. Of the twenty-seven reports that explicitly used Bayes theorem, only six included prior information in the form of (informative) prior distributions. Over time, the percentage of HTA reports that used Bayesian (implicit and/or explicit) methods increased from 0 percent in 1997 to nearly 80 percent in 2011.

CONCLUSIONS

This review has shown that there has been an increase in the use of Bayesian methods in HTA, which is likely to be a result of the increase in freely available resources to implement the approach. Areas where Bayesian methods have the potential to advance healthcare evaluations in the future are considered in the discussion.

Neuraminidase inhibitors for preventing and treating influenza in adults and children

BACKGROUND

Neuraminidase inhibitors (NIs) are stockpiled and recommended by public health agencies for treating and preventing seasonal and pandemic influenza. They are used clinically worldwide.

OBJECTIVES

To describe the potential benefits and harms of NIs for influenza in all age groups by reviewing all clinical study reports of published and unpublished randomised, placebo-controlled trials and regulatory comments.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched trial registries, electronic databases (to 22 July 2013) and regulatory archives, and corresponded with manufacturers to identify all trials. We also requested clinical study reports. We focused on the primary data sources of manufacturers but we checked that there were no published randomised controlled trials (RCTs) from non-manufacturer sources by running electronic searches in the following databases: the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE, Embase.com, PubMed (not MEDLINE), the Database of Reviews of Effects, the NHS Economic Evaluation Database and the Health Economic Evaluations Database.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised, placebo-controlled trials on adults and children with confirmed or suspected exposure to naturally occurring influenza.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We extracted clinical study reports and assessed risk of bias using purpose-built instruments. We analysed the effects of zanamivir and oseltamivir on time to first alleviation of symptoms, influenza outcomes, complications, hospitalisations and adverse events in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population. All trials were sponsored by the manufacturers.

MAIN RESULTS

We obtained 107 clinical study reports from the European Medicines Agency (EMA), GlaxoSmithKline and Roche. We accessed comments by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), EMA and Japanese regulator. We included 53 trials in Stage 1 (a judgement of appropriate study design) and 46 in Stage 2 (formal analysis), including 20 oseltamivir (9623 participants) and 26 zanamivir trials (14,628 participants). Inadequate reporting put most of the zanamivir studies and half of the oseltamivir studies at a high risk of selection bias. There were inadequate measures in place to protect 11 studies of oseltamivir from performance bias due to non-identical presentation of placebo. Attrition bias was high across the oseltamivir studies and there was also evidence of selective reporting for both the zanamivir and oseltamivir studies. The placebo interventions in both sets of trials may have contained active substances. Time to first symptom alleviation. For the treatment of adults, oseltamivir reduced the time to first alleviation of symptoms by 16.8 hours (95% confidence interval (CI) 8.4 to 25.1 hours, P < 0.0001). This represents a reduction in the time to first alleviation of symptoms from 7 to 6.3 days. There was no effect in asthmatic children, but in otherwise healthy children there was (reduction by a mean difference of 29 hours, 95% CI 12 to 47 hours, P = 0.001). Zanamivir reduced the time to first alleviation of symptoms in adults by 0.60 days (95% CI 0.39 to 0.81 days, P < 0.00001), equating to a reduction in the mean duration of symptoms from 6.6 to 6.0 days. The effect in children was not significant. In subgroup analysis we found no evidence of a difference in treatment effect for zanamivir on time to first alleviation of symptoms in adults in the influenza-infected and non-influenza-infected subgroups (P = 0.53). Hospitalisations. Treatment of adults with oseltamivir had no significant effect on hospitalisations: risk difference (RD) 0.15% (95% CI -0.78 to 0.91). There was also no significant effect in children or in prophylaxis. Zanamivir hospitalisation data were unreported. Serious influenza complications or those leading to study withdrawal. In adult treatment trials, oseltamivir did not significantly reduce those complications classified as serious or those which led to study withdrawal (RD 0.07%, 95% CI -0.78 to 0.44), nor in child treatment trials; neither did zanamivir in the treatment of adults or in prophylaxis. There were insufficient events to compare this outcome for oseltamivir in prophylaxis or zanamivir in the treatment of children. Pneumonia. Oseltamivir significantly reduced self reported, investigator-mediated, unverified pneumonia (RD 1.00%, 95% CI 0.22 to 1.49); number needed to treat to benefit (NNTB) = 100 (95% CI 67 to 451) in the treated population. The effect was not significant in the five trials that used a more detailed diagnostic form for pneumonia. There were no definitions of pneumonia (or other complications) in any trial. No oseltamivir treatment studies reported effects on radiologically confirmed pneumonia. There was no significant effect on unverified pneumonia in children. There was no significant effect of zanamivir on either self reported or radiologically confirmed pneumonia. In prophylaxis, zanamivir significantly reduced the risk of self reported, investigator-mediated, unverified pneumonia in adults (RD 0.32%, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.41); NNTB = 311 (95% CI 244 to 1086), but not oseltamivir. Bronchitis, sinusitis and otitis media. Zanamivir significantly reduced the risk of bronchitis in adult treatment trials (RD 1.80%, 95% CI 0.65 to 2.80); NNTB = 56 (36 to 155), but not oseltamivir. Neither NI significantly reduced the risk of otitis media and sinusitis in both adults and children. Harms of treatment. Oseltamivir in the treatment of adults increased the risk of nausea (RD 3.66%, 95% CI 0.90 to 7.39); number needed to treat to harm (NNTH) = 28 (95% CI 14 to 112) and vomiting (RD 4.56%, 95% CI 2.39 to 7.58); NNTH = 22 (14 to 42). The proportion of participants with four-fold increases in antibody titre was significantly lower in the treated group compared to the control group (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.86 to 0.97, I(2) statistic = 0%) (5% absolute difference between arms). Oseltamivir significantly decreased the risk of diarrhoea (RD 2.33%, 95% CI 0.14 to 3.81); NNTB = 43 (95% CI 27 to 709) and cardiac events (RD 0.68%, 95% CI 0.04 to 1.0); NNTB = 148 (101 to 2509) compared to placebo during the on-treatment period. There was a dose-response effect on psychiatric events in the two oseltamivir "pivotal" treatment trials, WV15670 and WV15671, at 150 mg (standard dose) and 300 mg daily (high dose) (P = 0.038). In the treatment of children, oseltamivir induced vomiting (RD 5.34%, 95% CI 1.75 to 10.29); NNTH = 19 (95% CI 10 to 57). There was a significantly lower proportion of children on oseltamivir with a four-fold increase in antibodies (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.00, I(2) = 0%). Prophylaxis. In prophylaxis trials, oseltamivir and zanamivir reduced the risk of symptomatic influenza in individuals (oseltamivir: RD 3.05% (95% CI 1.83 to 3.88); NNTB = 33 (26 to 55); zanamivir: RD 1.98% (95% CI 0.98 to 2.54); NNTB = 51 (40 to 103)) and in households (oseltamivir: RD 13.6% (95% CI 9.52 to 15.47); NNTB = 7 (6 to 11); zanamivir: RD 14.84% (95% CI 12.18 to 16.55); NNTB = 7 (7 to 9)). There was no significant effect on asymptomatic influenza (oseltamivir: RR 1.14 (95% CI 0.39 to 3.33); zanamivir: RR 0.97 (95% CI 0.76 to 1.24)). Non-influenza, influenza-like illness could not be assessed due to data not being fully reported. In oseltamivir prophylaxis studies, psychiatric adverse events were increased in the combined on- and off-treatment periods (RD 1.06%, 95% CI 0.07 to 2.76); NNTH = 94 (95% CI 36 to 1538) in the study treatment population. Oseltamivir increased the risk of headaches whilst on treatment (RD 3.15%, 95% CI 0.88 to 5.78); NNTH = 32 (95% CI 18 to 115), renal events whilst on treatment (RD 0.67%, 95% CI -2.93 to 0.01); NNTH = 150 (NNTH 35 to NNTB > 1000) and nausea whilst on treatment (RD 4.15%, 95% CI 0.86 to 9.51); NNTH = 25 (95% CI 11 to 116).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Oseltamivir and zanamivir have small, non-specific effects on reducing the time to alleviation of influenza symptoms in adults, but not in asthmatic children. Using either drug as prophylaxis reduces the risk of developing symptomatic influenza. Treatment trials with oseltamivir or zanamivir do not settle the question of whether the complications of influenza (such as pneumonia) are reduced, because of a lack of diagnostic definitions. The use of oseltamivir increases the risk of adverse effects, such as nausea, vomiting, psychiatric effects and renal events in adults and vomiting in children. The lower bioavailability may explain the lower toxicity of zanamivir compared to oseltamivir. The balance between benefits and harms should be considered when making decisions about use of both NIs for either the prophylaxis or treatment of influenza. The influenza virus-specific mechanism of action proposed by the producers does not fit the clinical evidence.

Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial viral infections in Malaysia: Demographic and Clinical perspective

Objective: Respiratory infections represent a major public health problem worldwide. The study aimed to determine the prevalence of respiratory syncytial and influenza virus infections and analyzed in respect to demography and clinical perspective.

Methods: The specimens were processed by cell culture and immunofluorescent assay (IFA) and real-time reverse transcriptase-PCR (rRT-PCR) for detection of respiratory viruses.

Results: Out of 505 specimens 189 (37.8%) were positive, in which RSV was positive in 124(24.8%) cases and influenza A was positive in 65(13%) cases. Positive cases for influenza virus A and RSV were analyzed based on demography: age, gender, ethnicity and clinical symptoms. There were no significant differences among gender, ethnicity and clinical symptoms in both RSV and influenza A virus infections. It was observed that children below 3 years of ages were more prone to RSV infections. On the contrary, influenza virus A infected all age groups of humans.

Conclusion: RSV infects mostly child below 3 years of age and influenza virus infects all age group. No specificity of RSV and influenza infection in relation to demography.