Insight into the phylogeny and responses of species from the genus Sergia (Campanulaceae) to the climate changes predicted for the Mountains of Central Asia (a world biodiversity hotspot)

BACKGROUND

Together with other elevated areas, the Mountains of Central Asia are significantly threatened by ongoing climate change. The presence of refuges during the glaciations makes the region extremely rich in species, especially endemic ones. However, the limited potential for colonisation of other habitats makes rocky-related species with 'island-like' distribution, particularly vulnerable to climate change. To understand the processes underlying species response to climate warming, we assessed differences in ecological niches and phylogenetic relationship of two geographically disjunctive alpine species belonging to the genus Sergia. The taxa are considered Tertiary relicts, endemic to the Tian Shan and Pamir-Alai Mountains. To illustrate range dynamics and differences in occupied niches of Sergia species, we used Ecological Niche Modelling of current and future distribution. Whereas, to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationship within and between Sergia and other related Campanulaceae species from the region we used molecular data (ITS, cpDNA, DArTseq-derived SNPs).

RESULTS

The results reveal that the genus Sergia is a polyphyletic group, and its representatives differ geographically, ecologically and genetically. Both S. regelii and S. sewerzowii constitute a common clade with Asyneuma group, however, S. sewerzowii is more closely related to Campanula alberti (a species that has never previously been considered closely related to the genus Asyneuma or Sergia) than to S. regelii. Sergia sewerzowii is adapted to lower elevations with higher temperatures, while S. regelii prefers higher elevations with lower temperatures. The future distribution models demonstrate a dramatic loss of S. regelii range with a shift to suitable habitats in higher elevations, while the potential range of S. sewerzowii increases and shifts to the north.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that S. regelii and S. sewerzowii have a long and independent evolution history. Sergia regelii and S. sewerzowii significantly differ in realised niches. These differences are mirrored in the response of the studied endemics to future climate warming. As suitable habitats shrink, rapid changes in distribution can lead to species' range loss, which is also directly related to declines in genetic variability. The outcomes of this paper will help to more precisely assess the impact of climate changes on rocky-related plant species found in this world's biodiversity hotspot.

An investigation into the potential for upward range expansion in high-montane species on the roof of the world

Climate warming is occurring in high-mountain areas at a faster rate than the global average. To escape the increasing temperatures, alpine species may shift in distribution upwards, threatening cold-adapted nival plant specialists. However, little is known about the success of seedling emergence and establishment at high altitudes outside the current range, particularly in the highest mountain areas of the Himalayas. We selected four native alpine species occurring around 4000 m a.s.l. and sowed seeds at the natural growing site (GS), at a high elevation site (HS; 5000 m a.s.l.) and at high elevation with soil from the growing site (HS-S) in the Khumbu Valley, north-eastern Nepal. We monitored seedling emergence and establishment for two consecutive years. Seedling emergence and establishment varied between species. Emergence was similar between GS and HS and improved at HS-S. Establishment was low at high elevations with all but one species having high mortality after winter. Seedling emergence of low elevation plants is possible at high elevations in the Everest region, indicating species may be able to shift their distribution range upwards. However, successful establishment may be limited by the soil and high winter mortality at high elevations, although not in all species. Climate warming will potentially lead to upward migration of some Himalayan plant species, leading to altered community composition in high-mountain areas.

The importance of species addition 'versus' replacement varies over succession in plant communities after glacier retreat

The mechanisms underlying plant succession remain highly debated. Due to the local scope of most studies, we lack a global quantification of the relative importance of species addition 'versus' replacement. We assessed the role of these processes in the variation (β-diversity) of plant communities colonizing the forelands of 46 retreating glaciers worldwide, using both environmental DNA and traditional surveys. Our findings indicate that addition and replacement concur in determining community changes in deglaciated sites, but their relative importance varied over time. Taxa addition dominated immediately after glacier retreat, as expected in harsh environments, while replacement became more important for late-successional communities. These changes were aligned with total β-diversity changes, which were more pronounced between early-successional communities than between late-successional communities (>50 yr since glacier retreat). Despite the complexity of community assembly during plant succession, the observed global pattern suggests a generalized shift from the dominance of facilitation and/or stochastic processes in early-successional communities to a predominance of competition later on.

Local climate modulates the development of soil nematode communities after glacier retreat

The worldwide retreat of glaciers is causing a faster than ever increase in ice-free areas that are leading to the emergence of new ecosystems. Understanding the dynamics of these environments is critical to predicting the consequences of climate change on mountains and at high latitudes. Climatic differences between regions of the world could modulate the emergence of biodiversity and functionality after glacier retreat, yet global tests of this hypothesis are lacking. Nematodes are the most abundant soil animals, with keystone roles in ecosystem functioning, but the lack of global-scale studies limits our understanding of how the taxonomic and functional diversity of nematodes changes during the colonization of proglacial landscapes. We used environmental DNA metabarcoding to characterize nematode communities of 48 glacier forelands from five continents. We assessed how different facets of biodiversity change with the age of deglaciated terrains and tested the hypothesis that colonization patterns are different across forelands with different climatic conditions. Nematodes colonized ice-free areas almost immediately. Both taxonomic and functional richness quickly increased over time, but the increase in nematode diversity was modulated by climate, so that colonization started earlier in forelands with mild summer temperatures. Colder forelands initially hosted poor communities, but the colonization rate then accelerated, eventually leveling biodiversity differences between climatic regimes in the long term. Immediately after glacier retreat, communities were dominated by colonizer taxa with short generation time and r-ecological strategy but community composition shifted through time, with increased frequency of more persister taxa with K-ecological strategy. These changes mostly occurred through the addition of new traits instead of their replacement during succession. The effects of local climate on nematode colonization led to heterogeneous but predictable patterns around the world that likely affect soil communities and overall ecosystem development.

Glacier retreat reorganizes river habitats leaving refugia for Alpine invertebrate biodiversity poorly protected

Alpine river biodiversity around the world is under threat from glacier retreat driven by rapid warming, yet our ability to predict the future distributions of specialist cold-water species is currently limited. Here we link future glacier projections, hydrological routing methods and species distribution models to quantify the changing influence of glaciers on population distributions of 15 alpine river invertebrate species across the entire European Alps, from 2020 to 2100. Glacial influence on rivers is projected to decrease steadily, with river networks expanding into higher elevations at a rate of 1% per decade. Species are projected to undergo upstream distribution shifts where glaciers persist but become functionally extinct where glaciers disappear completely. Several alpine catchments are predicted to offer climate refugia for cold-water specialists. However, present-day protected area networks provide relatively poor coverage of these future refugia, suggesting that alpine conservation strategies must change to accommodate the future effects of global warming.

Estimating phenological sensitivity in contemporary vs. historical data sets: Effects of climate resolution and spatial scale

PREMISE

Phenological sensitivity, or the degree to which a species' phenology shifts in response to warming, is an important parameter for comparing and predicting species' responses to climate change. Phenological sensitivity is often measured using herbarium specimens or local studies in natural populations. These approaches differ widely in spatiotemporal scales, yet few studies explicitly consider effects of the geographic extent and resolution of climate data when comparing phenological sensitivities quantified from different data sets for a given species.

METHODS

We compared sensitivity of flowering phenology to growing degree days of the alpine plant Silene acaulis using two data sets: herbarium specimens and a 6 yr observational study in four populations at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA. We investigated differences in phenological sensitivity obtained using variable spatial scales and climate data sources.

RESULTS

Herbarium specimens underestimated phenological sensitivity compared to observational data, even when herbarium samples were limited geographically or to nearby weather station data. However, when observational data were paired with broader-scale climate data, as is typically used in herbarium data sets, estimates of phenological sensitivity were more similar.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the potential for variation in data source, geographic scale, and accuracy of macroclimate data to produce very different estimates of phenological responses to climate change. Accurately predicting phenological shifts would benefit from comparisons between methods that estimate climate variables and phenological sensitivity over a variety of spatial scales.

Scientists' warning of the impacts of climate change on mountains

Mountains are highly diverse in areal extent, geological and climatic context, ecosystems and human activity. As such, mountain environments worldwide are particularly sensitive to the effects of anthropogenic climate change (global warming) as a result of their unique heat balance properties and the presence of climatically-sensitive snow, ice, permafrost and ecosystems. Consequently, mountain systems-in particular cryospheric ones-are currently undergoing unprecedented changes in the Anthropocene. This study identifies and discusses four of the major properties of mountains upon which anthropogenic climate change can impact, and indeed is already doing so. These properties are: the changing mountain cryosphere of glaciers and permafrost; mountain hazards and risk; mountain ecosystems and their services; and mountain communities and infrastructure. It is notable that changes in these different mountain properties do not follow a predictable trajectory of evolution in response to anthropogenic climate change. This demonstrates that different elements of mountain systems exhibit different sensitivities to forcing. The interconnections between these different properties highlight that mountains should be considered as integrated biophysical systems, of which human activity is part. Interrelationships between these mountain properties are discussed through a model of mountain socio-biophysical systems, which provides a framework for examining climate impacts and vulnerabilities. Managing the risks associated with ongoing climate change in mountains requires an integrated approach to climate change impacts monitoring and management.

Climate, immigration and speciation shape terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity in the European Alps

Quaternary climate fluctuations can affect speciation in regional biodiversity assembly in two non-mutually exclusive ways: a glacial species pump, where isolation in glacial refugia accelerates allopatric speciation, and adaptive radiation in underused adaptive zones during ice-free periods. We detected biogeographic and genetic signatures associated with both mechanisms in the assembly of the biota of the European Alps. Age distributions of endemic and widespread species within aquatic and terrestrial taxa (amphipods, fishes, amphibians, butterflies and flowering plants) revealed that endemic fish evolved only in lakes, are highly sympatric, and mainly of Holocene age, consistent with adaptive radiation. Endemic amphipods are ancient, suggesting preglacial radiation with limited range expansion and local Pleistocene survival, perhaps facilitated by a groundwater-dwelling lifestyle. Terrestrial endemics are mostly of Pleistocene age and are thus more consistent with the glacial species pump. The lack of evidence for Holocene adaptive radiation in the terrestrial biome is consistent with faster recolonization through range expansion of these taxa after glacial retreats. More stable and less seasonal ecological conditions in lakes during the Holocene may also have contributed to Holocene speciation in lakes. The high proportion of young, endemic species makes the Alpine biota vulnerable to climate change, but the mechanisms and consequences of species loss will likely differ between biomes because of their distinct evolutionary histories.

Winter Frosts Reduce Flower Bud Survival in High-Mountain Plants

At higher elevations in the European Alps, plants may experience winter temperatures of -30 °C and lower at snow-free sites. Vegetative organs are usually sufficiently frost hardy to survive such low temperatures, but it is largely unknown if this also applies to generative structures. We investigated winter frost effects on flower buds in the cushion plants Saxifraga bryoides L. (subnival-nival) and Saxifraga moschata Wulfen (alpine-nival) growing at differently exposed sites, and the chionophilous cryptophyte Ranunculus glacialis L. (subnival-nival). Potted plants were subjected to short-time (ST) and long-time (LT) freezing between -10 and -30 °C in temperature-controlled freezers. Frost damage, ice nucleation and flowering frequency in summer were determined. Flower bud viability and flowering frequency decreased significantly with decreasing temperature and exposure time in both saxifrages. Already, -10 °C LT-freezing caused the first injuries. Below -20 °C, the mean losses were 47% (ST) and 75% (LT) in S. bryoides, and 19% (ST) and 38% (LT) in S. moschata. Winter buds of both saxifrages did not supercool, suggesting that damages were caused by freeze dehydration. R. glacialis remained largely undamaged down to -30 °C in the ST experiment, but did not survive permanent freezing below -20 °C. Winter snow cover is essential for the survival of flower buds and indirectly for reproductive fitness. This problem gains particular relevance in the context of winter periods with low precipitation and winter warming events leading to the melting of the protective snowpack.