Relative Age Influences Performance of World-Class Track and Field Athletes Even in the Adulthood

Mitigating against relative age effects in youth Track & Field: Validating corrective adjustment procedures across multiple events

OBJECTIVES

With the aim to better identify talented Track & Field performance development, this study estimated the relationships between chronological (decimal) age with 60-m sprint, high jump, triple jump, and pole vault performance. Then, to mitigate against expected Relative Age Effects (RAEs), Corrective Adjustment Procedures (CAPs) were applied to an independent sample.

DESIGN

Mixed-longitudinal design examining public data between 2005 and 2019.

METHODS

The performances of 5339 Italian sprinters and jumpers (53.1 %) spanning 11.01-17.99 years of age were examined, with trendlines between chronological age and performance established. Related to an independent sample (N = 40,306; female 45.5 %), trendlines were then utilised to apply CAPs and adjust individual performance. Considering raw and adjusted performance data, RAE distributions were examined for the top 25 % and 10 % performers.

RESULTS

For all male and female events, quadratic models best summarised the relationships between chronological age and performance (R2 = 0.74-0.89). When examining independent athletes in similar event, RAEs were more pronounced in males (Cramer's V = 0.35-0.14) than females (Cramer's V = 0.29-0.07). For both sexes, RAE magnitude decreased with age and increased according to performance level (i.e., Top25%-Top10%). However, following CAP applications, RAEs were reduced or removed within annual age groups and performance levels.

CONCLUSIONS

With RAEs prevalent across Italian youth Track & Field events, findings validate CAPs as a strategy to account for the influence of relative age differences on athletic performance. CAPs help establish a more equitable strategy for performance evaluation and could help improve the efficacy of long-term athlete development programming.

Relative Age Effects and Self-Organized Sport Practices Among Adults

Purpose: Given that previous research on relative age effects (RAEs) has only focused on organized sport, the aim of this exploratory study was to examine whether this phenomenon also existed among self-organized practitioners. In relation to that, a second aim was to know whether self-organized sport practices could be favored by late-born practitioners as a result of a strategic adaptation. Method(s): Representative sub-samples of 474 soccer players, 363 basketball players, 2,536 swimmers, 1,788 strength training practitioners, 1,873 pétanque players, 973 table tennis players and 2,136 runners were analyzed. Results: The results did not show any significant RAEs, including in sport practices that are sensitive to this phenomenon such as soccer or basketball. The results did not show any significant overrepresentation of late-born people either. Conclusion: This study suggests that self-organized sport practices are not impacted by the RAEs. This finding is interesting because self-organized sport practice is the most important one in numbers.

The Relative Age Effect at Different Age Periods in Soccer: A Meta-Analysis

In the selection of young athletes, earlier-born adolescents often leverage their temporary biological advantage over their later-born peers from the same cohort, giving rise to the phenomenon known as the Relative Age Effect (RAE). In this study, we delved into the complexities of the RAE in soccer by reviewing 563 independent research samples across 90 articles. Our analysis showed that age period and performance level are pivotal factors influencing the magnitude of the RAE. The adolescent age period emerged as a significant RAE determinant, showcasing the highest effect size magnitudes in our findings. Among athletes of different performance levels, adult European soccer players have been extensively studied, and they have exhibited the most pronounced RAE magnitudes. Intriguingly, our findings reveal another compelling trend: the frequency of players born early versus late in the eligible birth year escalated as player performance levels increased, particularly during adolescence. Coaches and players appear to capitalize unconsciously on this maturational advantage, though this strategy wanes post-adolescence. While there are currently no penalties for this team selection practice, our findings stress the need for coaches to comprehend the ramifications of selecting athletes with an age bias We offer insights into RAE complexities, highlight the synergy of age and performance in these transitory advantages, and advance arguments for more fairly selecting and developing youth athletes.

Relative age effects and the youth-to-senior transition in Italian soccer: the underdog hypothesis versus knock-on effects of relative age

Relative Age Effects (RAEs) appear largely throughout youth soccer. However, little is known about how RAEs at youth levels can impact transition at senior levels. Accordingly, this study aimed to: (a) provide further test of RAEs by exploring the birth quarter (BQ) distribution of 2,030 Italian players born from 1975 to 2001 who have played in any of the Youth National Italian Soccer Teams; and (b) investigate how RAEs influence future career outcomes, by exploring the BQ distribution of players who completed the transition from youth squads to the Senior National Team (n = 182).  Chi-square statistics revealed significantly skewed BQ distributions for all Youth squads (P values <0.0001), and for the cohort of players who completed the transition (P = 0.003). In contrast, results from the Odds Ratios highlighted how BQ4s were more likely to transition from youth-to-senior compared to BQ1s. Results showed BQ1s remained overrepresented at senior level due to a residual bias effect. Whereas BQ4s who were able to overcome selection processes at youth levels recorded the highest likelihood of competing at senior levels. Involving players' career trajectories in RAEs studies is needed to understand how RAEs impacts career outcomes of early selected players.

Relative age effect reversal on the junior-to-senior transition in world-class athletics

The relative age effect (RAE) is a selection bias resulting from the interaction between the selected dates and birthdates. Nevertheless, the impact of birthdate on the junior-to-senior transition in international track and field is unclear. This study aimed to quantify the RAE's magnitude and test if birthdate affects the junior-to-senior transition rate. The birthdate and performances of 5,766 sprinters (female: 51.0%) and 5,863 jumpers (female: 45.9%) were collected. Elite athletes (operationally defined as the World's all-time Top 200, 100 and 50 athletes) were identified according to Under 18 and Senior categories. Skewed quartile distributions were observed in the Under 18 (effect size ranged = 0.15-0.10) but not in the Senior category. RAE magnitude increased according to performance level (i.e., from Top 200 to Top 50) and was higher in males than females. Relatively younger athletes showed significantly higher transition rates with a higher chance of maintaining top level in the senior category (odds ratio (OR) ~ 1.64). The probability of maintaining success was lower for sprinters than jumpers (OR ~ 0.70), influenced by decade of birth and continental place but similar for male and female athletes. Data corroborate that relatively younger athletes are disadvantaged in the junior category but advantaged when transitioning to the senior category.

Relative age effects on speed trials in Brazilian athletics

BACKGROUND

Relative age effect (RAE) is a concept related to the possible advantage that older athletes would have over younger ones within the same category. Although many studies have approached this subject in individual sports, there are few clippings by events within the sport. More detailed analyses are necessary for a better understanding of how RAE behaves in sports, especially in athletics, the subject of this study. The objective of this study was to analyze the RAE on speed in track and field events as a whole, separating the flat races from the hurdles races.

METHODS

The Brazilian Ranking of Brazilian Athletics Confederation was used for data analysis, and the sample was composed of the 50 best-placed marks in the ranking of speed events in athletics in the categories Under(U)-16 and U-18 (female and male). Statistical analysis was calculated by chi-square, and the effect size was checked by Cramer's V. Likelihood-ratio test (L-Ratio) assessed the probability of the RAE occurring in the total sample and by age groups.

RESULTS

In the total sample the results pointed to the emergence of RAE in males in both categories (U-16: p < 0.001; V: 0.13; L-Ratio: 3.64, U-18: p < 0.001; V: 0.13; L-Ratio: 3.80), whereas in females no such effect was found in any category (U-16: p = 0.6; V: 0.09; L-Ratio: 0.09, U-18: p = 0.6; V: 0.07; L-Ratio: 0.12). When the results were separated by type of event, there was only a RAE in the shallow event in the U-18 female category (p = 0.3; V: 0.11; L-Ratio: 8.72).

CONCLUSION

The results allow us to conclude that there is a RAE in the speed trials of Brazilian athletics in the U16 and U18 categories for men, while this effect appears only in the shallow trials of the U18 category for women, indicating that the RAE has incidence when there is more participation and competition in the sport.

Why age categories in youth sport should be eliminated: Insights from performance development of youth female long jumpers

Long-term sports participation and performance development are major issues in popular sports and talent development programs. This study aimed to provide longitudinal trends in youth female long jump performance development, participation, and relative age effects (RAEs), as longitudinal data for female athletes are missing. 51'894 season's best results of female long jump athletes (n = 16'189) were acquired from the Swiss Athletics online database and analyzed within a range of 6-22 years of age. To examine longitudinal performance development and RAEs, data from athletes who participated in at least three seasons were selected (n = 41'253) and analyzed. Performance development was analyzed using age groups (AGs) and exact chronological age (CA) at competition. Differences between performances of birth quarters were analyzed using 83% confidence intervals (CIs) and smallest worthwhile change. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CI were used to quantify RAEs. With the traditional classification into age groups (AG), performances of athletes born between January and March (Q1) were significantly better than those born between October and December (Q4) from U8 to U17. Using exact CA resulted in similar performances in Q1 and Q4 until the U20 age category. The peak of participation was reached in the U12 category, and then decreased until the U23 category with a substantial drop at U17. Significant RAEs were observed from U8 to U19 and at U22. RAEs continuously decreased from U8 (large effect) to U14 (small effect). The present results show that differences in performance arise from the comparison of athletes in AGs. Thus, going beyond AGs and using exact CA, Q4 athletes could benefit from a realistic performance comparison, which promotes fair performance evaluation, un-biased talent development, realistic feedback, and long-term participation.

Relative age effects in track-and-field: Identification and performance rebalancing

Introduction: Relative Age Effect (RAE) consists of a biased distribution of the dates of birth in a same-age group. Objectives: This study aimed to investigate Relative Age Effect among French athletes in different track-and-field events, and propose a corrective adjustment method to highlight the true potential of an athlete with respect to his/her relative age. Methods: 358,610 performances from 2009 to 2019 of female and male athletes between 12 and 21 years old were collected. Relative age distributions of performances were analyzed by level of competitiveness ("All," "Top50%," "Top10%" where "all" represents all athletes, top50% and top10% represent the best 50% and 10% of athletes per age category respectively) and age category, with chi-square and odd-ratio statistics. A linear relationship between distribution of performances and age leads to a calibration coefficient allowing to rebalance the performance by considering the effect of Relative Age Effect. Validation is obtained by Wilcoxon statistical test on actual athlete data. Results: Relative Age Effect is present in all types of events. It is larger when the level of competitiveness increases. In male 100 m sprint, 1 year difference between two athletes birth date represents an average gain of 931.01 ms (6.5%) in the U13 (Under 13 years old) and 229.65 ms (1.9%) in the U17 (Under 17 years old) categories. Our validated rebalancing methods allows to compensate for the biases induced by the relative age effect. By comparing the rebalanced performance and the realised performance of each athlete, we cannot say that they are significantly different. On average, there is no significant difference between these two performances. Conclusion: This study showed that there is a relative age effect among young French athletes, with an even greater effect as the level of competition increases. Thanks to the rebalancing method that has been validated, performances can now be better appreciated according to category and event.

The relative age effect is widespread among European adult professional soccer players but does not affect their market value

BACKGROUND

The relative age effect (RAE) is most prevalent in highly competitive youth soccer and persists to a lesser extent in senior soccer. However, it is known that soccer players born in the second half of the year are as successful at senior level, indicating that they are equally talented although under-represented at youth level due to bias during the selection process, in which the emphasis is on more pronounced physical qualities in a specific period of time. Examining the prevalence of the RAE among professional soccer players depending on the level of competition and playing position, as well as analyzing the relationship between the player's birth quarter and market value, are of scientific interest.

METHODS

The dates of birth, playing position, and market value of all adult male soccer players included in the final rosters of teams from the top-division of 54 European countries, listed on www.transfermarkt.com on August 15th, 2020, were analyzed (18,429 soccer players in total). All players were categorized into four groups according to the quarter of birth (Q) and playing position. All teams were further sub-divided in groups depending on the soccer clubs' level of representation in the UEFA Champions League.

RESULTS

Of 18,429 players, 30.9% were born in Q1, 25.7% in Q2, 23.8% in Q3 and 19.6% in Q4. The number of soccer players born in Q1 was lower in less competitive leagues. The number of players born in Q1 decreased as the level of competition decreased; the highest percentage of these players was observed in clubs that are among the top 50 ranked in UEFA or compete in the most prestigious European championships. The RAE was less pronounced in teams that participate in lower competitive championships. There was no significant difference in market value between players playing position and level of competition when born in different quarters. Although, the most expensive soccer players in the European championships were late-born forwards. Players of various groups differed in their market value.

CONCLUSIONS

The RAE is currently prevalent in all the most competitive senior soccer leagues and teams in Europe regardless of playing position. There are no significant differences in market value between players of the same playing position and level of competition when born in different quarters. The most expensive soccer players in the European championships are forwards born in Q4. These findings may indicate that the under-representation of "late-born" soccer players in youth, and then consequently in adult soccer, is not associated with lower talent, but with other factors, possibly based on physiological characteristics and socio-cultural factors. Further measures are needed to mitigate the discriminatory effects of selection bias based on the RAE.

The Influence of Contextual Factors on the Relative Age Effect in Male International Rugby Union: The Impact of Sociocultural Influences and Playing Position

The purpose of this study is not only to establish whether the relative age effect (RAE) exists in male international rugby union players, but also to investigate the impact of sociocultural influences (i.e., northern and southern hemispheres) and playing position (i.e., backs, forwards, and scrum-halves). The birth date and the playing position of 7144 senior male professional rugby players included in the rosters of the season 2020−2021 were collected from the top 10 nations of the World Rugby rankings (i.e., Argentina, Australia, England, France, Ireland, Japan, New Zealand, Scotland, South Africa, and Wales). Data were analyzed using a chi-square goodness-of-fit test to compare the observed and expected birth quarter (Q) distributions. Results showed that relatively older players were overrepresented in all the sample (p < 0.001; Q1 = 28.8% vs. Q4 = 20.3%). In players competing in both hemispheres, the RAE was weak despite a more pronounced RAE emerging for southern players. In addition, the RAE was present in backs and forwards, but inconsistent for scrum-halves. In general, the data suggest that relatively older players may be more likely to reach expertise at senior levels than their later-born peers, and that the effect was consistent in different sociocultural contexts as well as in backs and forwards.

The relative age effect in top 100 elite female tennis players in 2007-2016

The Relative Age Effect (RAE) has been the subject of many studies, but few have focused on professional athletes in individual sports. The aim of this study was to verify the existence of the RAE among elite senior female tennis players (top 100 players) in the WTA Rankings (n = 1000) in the years 2007-2016. The analysis was performed among top 100, resp. top 10 female tennis players, among players in 4 age subgroups and among left-handed (LH) and right-handed (RH) players. The existence of the RAE was assessed with the use of chi-square test (goodness of fit). More than half of top 100 players were born in first semester: both in individual years (53.0-63.0%) and in the whole observed period (58.4%). Significant RAE (ES medium) was observed in top 100 female players only in 2012 and 2016; significant RAE (ES small) was detected in the period of 2007-2016. Among the top 10 players, significant RAE (ES medium) was demonstrated during the whole period. No significant RAE (ES medium) was detected in the 17-18y subgroups, significant in 19-24y and 25-30y (ES small) as well as in 31-36y (ES medium). Although significant RAE was observed in the subgroups of LH and RH female players, ES was large only in the LH. The results contribute to the expansion of the knowledge about the reduction of the RAE existence in adulthood among coaches, athletes and tennis officials.

Don't Throw the Baby Out With the Bathwater: Talent in Swimming Sprinting Events Might Be Hidden at Early Age

PURPOSE

This study aimed to describe the career performance progression of elite early- and later-success international swimmers competing in sprint events (ie, 50 and 100 m).

METHODS

The career performance trajectories of 6003 swimmers (50.9% females; 58,760 unique records) competing in the 4 swimming strokes were evaluated. Swimmers with early and later success were identified. The authors identified the top 50 all-time swimmers competing in junior career who did not reach the top 50 rankings in their senior career, and vice versa, and successful swimmers in both junior and senior career.

RESULTS

Early-success swimmers mainly achieved their peak performance before the age of 20 years and approximately 5-6 years before successful senior swimmers or approximately 3-4 years before successful swimmers both in junior and senior careers. The annual performance improvements of later-success swimmers were higher (about 1%-2%) until the age of 20 to 24 years, whereas early-success swimmers showed a performance stagnation at about 16 to 18 years in females and 19 to 20 years in males.

CONCLUSIONS

Early-success swimmers who achieved peak performance at a young age were unable to maintain the same level of competitiveness in adulthood as they experienced a plateau in performance from the age of 20 years. The procedure of considering early performances solely for talent identification (and not the current rate of progression) might represent a limited approach for selecting future elite swimmers. Our results indicate that performance progression in the transition toward adult careers might be a strong indicator of performance potential.

Performance in youth track and field is associated with birth quartile. A register-based study among athletes in Norway from 10 years to senior level

Introduction

Earlier studies have demonstrated that the oldest in a competition class are more likely to succeed than the youngest, a phenomenon called relative age effect (RAE). Track and field give us an opportunity to investigate the advantage of being born early in the year based upon actual performance, since objective criteria are the performance indicators. Hence, the aim of the present study was to investigate the occurrence of RAE in Norwegian track and field athletes in events where physical capacity is important for success.

Methods

All individual season best results from the register of The Norwegian Athletics Federation (n = 28 999) obtained in all competition classes from the age of 10 years to senior in both sexes on 60m and 600m from 2011 to 2020 were downloaded. One-way ANOVA and LSD post hoc analyses were used to analyze performance differences according to birth quartiles between athletes. Further, odds ratios (OR) were used to calculate the odds of being among the top-100 for athletes for those born in the first quartile of the year compared to the last.

Results

The RAE was present in several of the competition classes in sprint compared to middle-distance running, and in more male than female competition classes. Overall, the OR of being among the top-100 in one of the competition classes on 60m sprint when born in first quartile compared to last quartile was 2.88 [2.30–3.62] for males and 1.54 [1.26–1.89] for females.

Conclusion

Being born early in the year in events with high demand for specific physical capacities is an advantage in both sexes in most of the youngest competition classes. In males, the advantage of being born early in the year lasted longer in sprint than in middle-distance running, indicating that puberty affects performance in sprint and middle-distance running differently.

Relative Age Effect Among the Best Norwegian Track and Field Athletes of All Time: Comparisons of Explosive and Endurance Events

The purpose of this study was to investigate the degree of relative age effect (RAE) among the best Norwegian track and field athletes of all time, aged 13 years to senior, as well as to investigate the differences between athletes in events that impose different demands on their physical characteristics, categorised in endurance and explosiveness. The degree of RAE was investigated by examining the difference between the sample’s (N = 21,711) quarterly birth distribution and the quarterly distribution of birth of the Norwegian population as a whole from 1966 to 2019. To determine whether or not an RAE was present, chi-square tests (χ²) were conducted against an even distribution, with Cramer’s V (phi or ɸ) as a measure of effect size. The study’s results show a strong RAE in the two youngest age groups in both genders. RAE decreases with increasing age, but the effect is still present at the senior level in both men and women. Furthermore, the degree of RAE was strongest in explosive events in both boys (ɸ = 0.46) and girls (ɸ = 0.30), while in endurance events it was strong in boys (ɸ = 0.38) but not in girls (ɸ = 0.13). Prominent effect of RAE in the 13- and 14-year-old classes can be explained by the fact that in the youngest age groups impose the highest relative age difference. In addition, this is an age group where there are large differences in growth spurts, physical characteristics and training experience. Elimination of RAE with increasing age may be due to the fact that after puberty inherent physical advantages as a result of the month of birth are evened out. The prominent RAE in explosive events and in boys may be due to the fact that puberty and growth spurts make boys faster, stronger and larger, while puberty and growth spurts in girls are not always beneficial for girls in track and field events. The practical significance of the results relates to athletes developmental opportunities. Irrespective of whether young track and field athletes are relatively older or younger they should be met with patience and dedication from coaches. Superficial short-term categorization of young athletes potential do more harm than good.

The Relative Age Effect in the Best Track and Field Athletes Aged 10 to 15 Years Old

(1) The purpose of this study was to examine the prevalence of the relative age effect (RAE) in the best young (10 to 15 years old) track and field athletes. (2) Hypothesis: The prevalence of the RAE in the best young track and field athletes of both genders will be evident in all age groups from 10 to 15 years old, which may be associated with the significant relationship between biological maturity, chronological age, and the development of physical qualities. (3) Materials and methods: In total, 1778 athletes volunteered for this study. The sample was based on the results of the best young athletes who participated in the final tournaments of the national competition “Shipovka Yunykh”(“Running spikes for young athletes”), which have been held since 1981. The sample group consisted of male and female athletes classified into specific age groups: 10 to 11 years old (n = 579), 12 to 13 years old (n = 600), and 14 to 15 years old (n = 599). Analysis was performed using Jamovi 1.8.1. The Chi-square test was used to compare the RAE between different groups. (4) Results: A wide distribution of the RAE was revealed both in the general sample and in boys and girls. The percentage of “early-born” athletes was 37.6% while only 12.3% were “late-born” athletes. The difference in the severity of the RAE may reflect the small sample of athletes from the fourth quartile, which was significantly less than the sample of boys from the fourth quartile (p = 0.04, OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.02−2.78). The RAE was also evident in all age groups of boys and girls, without any statistically significant differences in the severity (p > 0.05, Chi = 2.135, V = 0.02). In the 14- to 15-year-old male athletes group, the number of early-born compared to late-born athletes peaked. The RAE was most common amongst the most successful track and field athletes. Among the competition medalists during the analyzed time period, more than 50% of athletes were born in the first quarter and no athletes were born in the fourth quarter.

Successful Young Athletes Have Low Probability of Being Ranked Among the Best Senior Athletes, but This Is Higher When Compared to Their Less Successful Peers

Background

Contemporary research has shown that only a small proportion of high achieving young athletes continue to become successful senior athletes. However, there is a lack of empirical literature tracking the success of senior male and female athletes who were considered high achieving as a youth.

Hypothesis

Athletes of both sexes who are successful in youth categories (U18 and U20) are more likely to be successful senior athletes.

Conclusion

Data from 67,600 athletes were collated from the tilastopaja.org platform. The inclusion criteria for both genders were determined by top-100 ranking in the U18 and U20 age groups and progression to the top-100 as a senior athlete. Only 23.5% of successful track and field athletes (ranked in top-100) at U18 became a successful senior athlete, while 35.4% were from the U20 group. Girls ranked in the top-100 U18 and U20 categories are significantly more likely to be ranked in the top-100 as a senior when compared to boys. Although, being ranked in the top-50 at U18 and U20 significantly increases the probability of becoming a successful senior athlete when compared with less successful athletes at these age groups (p < 0.001). Notably, the majority (68.5%) of the most successful senior athletes were not ranked in the top-100 when in the U18 or U20 age groups. Only a small group of track and field athletes that are successful at U18 and U20 become successful at senior level. The most successful track and field youth athletes are significantly more likely to succeed as a senior athlete than their less successful peers, while girls are more likely to be successful than boys.

Relative age effect in French alpine skiing: Problem and solution

This study aims to identify the potential bias of the relative age effect (RAE) in French alpine skiers and to propose a mathematical correction adjustment for such a bias. All performances and birthdates of skiers on the national and international circuit were collected from the 2004 up to 2019. A goodness-of-fit chi-square test and the residuals were used to study the distribution of birth trimesters in youth competitors. A linear relationship between the distribution of performances and the months obtains a calibration coefficient allowing to rebalance the performance by considering the effect of RAE. Individuals born at the beginning of the year are over-represented in the elite young selections in all disciplines for both genders. A coefficient based on the relationship between month of birth and performance adjusts individual performance and cancels out the effect of RAE. The results show that RAE is present in French alpine skiing. We present a method allowing to consider the effect of the RAE in the performances realized in each gender and discipline. This method allows coaches to have a more objective opinion on performance and to reduce selection bias.

Relative Age Effects in Male Cricket: A Personal Assets Approach to Explain Immediate, Short-Term, and Long-Term Developmental Outcomes

The purpose of this study was to adopt the Personal Assets Framework (PAF) to examine the immediate, short-term, and long-term developmental outcomes associated with relative age effects (RAEs) in male cricket. As such, this study was comprised of three aims: (a) examine the birth quarter (BQ) distribution of players throughout the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) national talent pathway (i.e., Regional U15, Regional U17, England U19, England Lions, England T20, England ODI, and England Test; n = 1800; immediate timescale), (b) explore the youth-to-senior transitions based on BQ and skill-set (i.e., batters and bowlers; short-term timescale), and (c) analyse the average number of games played at senior levels based on BQ and skill-set (i.e., long-term timescale). A chi-square goodness of fit test, Cramer’s V, odds ratios, and 95% confidence intervals were used to compare the BQ distributions of each cohort against the expected BQ distributions. In the immediate timescale, results showed that relatively older players were overrepresented throughout all the youth levels (p < 0.05, V = 0.16−0.30), whereas there were no differences at senior levels (p > 0.05, V = 0.05−0.15). In the short-term timescale, when the senior cohorts were compared to the expected BQ distributions based on the Regional U15 cohort, relatively younger players were more likely to transition from youth to senior levels (p < 0.05, V = 0.22−0.37). In the long-term timescale, relatively older batters were selected for more games (p < 0.05, V = 0.18−0.51), whereas relatively younger bowlers were selected for more games (p < 0.05, V = 0.17−0.39). Moving forward, it is important for researchers and practitioners to better understand how (bi)annual-age grouping shapes developmental outcomes in across different timescales (i.e., immediate, short-term, and long-term), as well as consider alternative grouping strategies and RAE solutions.

Small Relative Age Effect Appears in Professional Female Italian Team Sports

The relative age effect (RAE) concerns those (dis)advantages and outcomes resulting from an interaction between the dates of selection and birthdates. Although this phenomenon is well known in a male context, limited data are available in female sports. Thus, the aim of this study was to quantify the prevalence and magnitude of the RAE in a female Italian context at the professional level in basketball, soccer, and volleyball. A total of 1535 birthdates of elite senior players were analyzed overall and separately between early and late career stages. Chi-square goodness-of-fit tests were applied to investigate the RAE in each sport. An asymmetry in birthdates was observed in all sports (Crammer's V ranged = 0.10-0.12). Players born close to the beginning of the year were 1.62 and 1.61 times more likely to reach first and second Italian divisions of soccer and volleyball, respectively, than those born in the last part of the year. A small over-representation of female athletes born close to the beginning of the year is evident at the senior professional level in all Italian investigated team sports. In soccer, this trend was more evident in the first stage of a senior career.

The New Generation of Professional Soccer Talent Is Born under the Bias of the RAE: Relative Age Effect in International Male Youth Soccer Championships

In 2019, numerous championships of youth categories soccer national teams were held. In the present study, we analyzed the existence of the Relative Age Effect (RAE) in four major male championships that, due to their importance and participating teams, most likely brought together the great bulk of the players who will dominate professional soccer in the next decade. Participants were professional and amateur youth male soccer players who participated in the last international championships: UEFA European Under-21 Championship (2017–2019); UEFA European Under-19 Championship (2019); South American Youth Football Championship (also known as Conmebol U-20) (2019); and FIFA U-20 World Cup (2019), with 823 players (20.25 ± 0.84 years). In the four championships analyzed, the existence of RAE was found for all players (p < 0.001). Analyzing the players when considering their position on the pitch and their championship, RAE was found, statistically significant, in 10 of the 16 classifications. New generations of elite soccer players arrive with a clear bias in the selection of talent; an unfair bias, based on unequal opportunities in early categories, which should be reviewed by sports authorities.

Corrective procedures remove relative age effect from world-class junior sprinters

This retrospective study investigated whether corrective adjustment procedures can remove the relative age effect (RAE) from world-class junior sprinters at the beginning of their career. A total of 2,918 male and 3,029 female athletes competing in sprint races (100 m, 200 m, and 400 m) of the World Athletics lists between 2000 and 2018 were considered. Longitudinal quadratic trendline equations across ages 16-25 yrs were calculated considering athletes' exact age and respective performance. Corrective adjustment calculations from the estimated longitudinal quadratic equations were applied at 16 yrs and 17 yrs. RAE was investigated for the whole sample and top-level athletes (i.e., first Top50 and Top100) considering the uncorrected and corrected performance. Moderate to large RAE was observed in Top50 and Top100 at 16 yrs. Differently, a lower RAE was observed at 17 yrs. When re-examining the data using the corrective adjustment calculations, the RAE disappeared in all sprint events and both genders at 16 yrs, while a more equal distribution was observed at 17 yrs. Corrective adjustment procedures can remove or at least reduce the RAE in world-class sprinters. Applying simple equations based on exact age might improve the accuracy of performance evaluation and talent identification in international track and field sprint competitions.

Relative age effect? No "flipping" way! Apparatus dependent inverse relative age effects in elite, women's artistic gymnastics

In contrast to research on team-sports, delayed maturation has been observed in higher-skilled gymnasts, leading to atypical distributions of the relative age effect. Recent studies have reported intra-sport differences in the relative age effect and given the task demands across gymnastics apparatus, we expected to find evidence for the influence of apparatus specialism. We examined the presence of a relative age effects within a sample of elite, international, women’s artistic gymnasts (N = 806, N_countries = 87), and further sampled our data from vault, bars, beam, and floor major competition finalists. Poisson regression analysis indicated no relative age effect in the full sample (p = .55; R²_adj. = .01) but an effect that manifested when analysing apparatus independently. The Index of Discrimination (I_D) analysis provided evidence of an inverse relative age effect identified for beam (p = .01; I_D = 1.27; R²_adj. = .12), a finding that was corroborated by a marginal effect in our vault finalists (p = .08; I_D = 1.21; R²_adj. = .06). These novel findings can be attributed to the integrated influence of self-fulfilling prophecy upon coach and gymnast expectations, as well as the technical mechanisms underpinning skill development involved in the underdog hypothesis.

Being a top swimmer during the early career is not a prerequisite for success: A study on sprinter strokes

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the junior-to-senior successful transition rate in sprint swimming events in elite European performers.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of publicly available competition data collected between 2004 and 2019.

METHODS

The yearly performance of 6631 European swimmers (females = 41.8% of the sample) competing in 50 and 100 m freestyle, backstroke, breaststroke, and butterfly were included in the analysis. The junior-to-senior transition rate was determined as the number of elite junior athletes who maintained their elite status in adulthood. To investigate how the definition of elite may affect the calculation of the transition rate, we operationally defined elite athletes as those ranked in the all-time top 10, 25, 50, and 100 in their category. We also calculated the correlation between junior and senior performances.

RESULTS

The average transition rates ranged, depending on the age of reference, from 10 to 26% in males and from 23 to 33% in females. The transition rate for the top 100 junior swimmers was greater than that for the top 10 swimmers. In general, swimmers who swam 50 m showed a slightly lower transition rate compared with those that swam 100 m. Depending on the age of reference, low-to-moderate correlations were observed between junior and senior peak performances.

CONCLUSIONS

Most elite junior athletes did not maintain the elite level in adulthood. Except for athletes in the last year of the junior category (18 years for males and 17 years for females), junior performances were poorly correlated with senior performances.

World-Class Sprinters’ Careers: Early Success Does Not Guarantee Success at Adult Age

Purpose: To quantify how many of the top 50 under-18 (U18) sprinters in the world managed to become top 50 ranked as adult competitors. The authors also described the career trajectory of athletes ranked in the top 50 during either U18 or senior category. Methods: A total of 4924 male and female athletes competing in sprint races and ranked in the International Association of Athletics Federations (now World Athletics) lists in any of the seasons between the 2000 and 2018 were included in the study. The athletes ranked in the top 50 positions of all-time lists during U18, senior, or both categories were analyzed. Results: Only 17% of the male and 21% of the female top 50 ranked U18 managed to become top 50 ranked senior athletes. The top 50 ranked senior athletes consistently produced yearly larger improvements during late adolescence and early adulthood compared with those who ranked in the top 50 at U18. Furthermore, top 50 ranked senior athletes reached their peak performance later compared with the top 50 ranked only in U18. Conclusions: This study confirms that early success in track and field is not a good predictor of success at senior level in sprinting events. The yearly performance improvements and their tracking provide the most suitable approach to identify athletes more likely to succeed as elite performers in adulthood. The authors hope that the results of this study can provide useful comparative data and reference criteria for talent-identification and -development programs.

Elite Junior Throwers Unlikely to Remain at the Top Level in the Senior Category

PURPOSE

This study investigated (1) the transition rate of elite world-class throwers, (2) the age of peak performance in either elite junior and/or elite senior athletes, and (3) if relative age effect (RAE) influences the chance of being considered elite in junior and/or senior category.

METHODS

The career performance trajectories of 5108 throwers (49.9% females) were extracted from the World Athletics database. The authors identified throwers who had reached the elite level (operationally defined as the World all-time top 50 ranked for each age category) in either junior and/or senior category and calculated the junior-to-senior transition rate. The age of peak performance and the RAE were also investigated.

RESULTS

The transition rate at 16 and 18 years of age was 6% and 12% in males and 16% and 24% in females, respectively. Furthermore, elite senior throwers reached their personal best later in life than elite junior throwers. The athletes of both genders considered elite in the junior category showed a large RAE. Interestingly, male athletes who reached the elite level in senior category also showed appreciable RAE.

CONCLUSIONS

Only a few of the athletes who reach the top 50 in the world at 16 or 18 years of age manage to become elite senior athletes, underlining that success at the beginning of an athletic career does not predict success in the athlete's senior career. Moreover, data suggest that being relatively older may confer a benefit across the whole career of male throwers.

Darwinian Selection Discriminates Young Athletes: the Relative Age Effect in Relation to Sporting Performance

BACKGROUND

The relative age effect (RAE) is a worldwide phenomenon, allowing sport participation and elite selection to be based on birthdate distribution. Negative consequences include both a narrow, non-optimal elite selection and negative health effects on entire populations. This study investigated the RAE and athletic performance in multiple individual sports in Sweden.

METHODS

Birthdates of athletes born between the years 1922 and 2015 were collected across 4-month periods (tertiles: T1, T2, T3) from cross-country skiing (N = 136,387), orienteering (N = 41,164), athletics (N = 14,503), alpine skiing (N = 508), E-sports (N = 47,030), and chess (N = 4889). In total, data from 244,560 athletes (women: N = 79,807, men: N = 164,753) was compared to the complete parent population of 5,390,954 births in Sweden during the same years. Chi-squared statistics compared parent and cohort distributions stratified by sport, sex, and age.

RESULTS

A significantly skewed distribution of birthdates was present in all sports, both sexes, and most age groups. The largest RAEs are seen in children where T1 often constitutes 40-50% and T3, 20-25% of the population. In E-sports, an inversed RAE was seen in adults. In most investigated sports, birthdate distribution was correlated to performance in children but not in adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Skewed birthdate distributions were consistently prevalent in all investigated individual sports in Sweden, both physically demanding and cognitive/skill-based. As sport participation is related to total level of physical activity, both present and future, failing to address the RAE issue at an early age will result not only in a narrow and arbitrary selection for adult elite athletes but also in a negative impact on public health.

"Birthday-Banding" as a Strategy to Moderate the Relative Age Effect: A Case Study Into the England Squash Talent Pathway

The relative age effect (RAE) is almost pervasive throughout youth sports, whereby relatively older athletes are consistently overrepresented compared to their relatively younger peers. Although researchers regularly cite the need for sports programs to incorporate strategies to moderate the RAE, organizational structures often continue to adopt a one-dimensional (bi)annual-age group approach. In an effort to combat this issue, England Squash implemented a “birthday-banding” strategy in its talent pathway, whereby young athletes move up to their next age group on their birthday, with the aim to remove particular selection time points and fixed chronological bandings. Thus, the purpose of this study was to examine the potential effects of the birthday-banding strategy on birth quarter (BQ) distributions throughout the England Squash talent pathway. Three mixed-gender groups were populated and analyzed: (a) ASPIRE athletes (n = 250), (b) Development and Potential athletes (n = 52), and (c) Senior team and Academy athletes (n = 26). Chi-square analysis and odds ratios were used to test BQ distributions against national norms and between quartiles, respectively. Results reveal no significant difference between BQ distributions within all three groups (P > 0.05). In contrast to most studies examining the RAE within athlete development settings, there appears to be no RAE throughout the England Squash talent pathway. These findings suggest that the birthday-banding strategy may be a useful tool to moderate RAE in youth sports.

Performance progression of elite jumpers: Early performances do not predict later success

This study aimed (a) to estimate the transition rate for top 50 ranked track and field jumpers, (b) to compare the performance progression of top 50 ranked senior jumpers (top50 senior) to those who failed to be top 50 ranked in the senior category despite being top 50 ranked in the under 18 category (only U18), and (c) to verify whether relative age effect may at least partially explain the differences in the two above-mentioned subgroups. The career performance trajectories of 5981 athletes (2837 females) competing in jump events from 2000 to 2019 were extracted from the World Athletics database. The all-time top 50 ranked athletes for each age from 16 years to senior category were identified. Performance progression characteristics were compared using linear mixed-effects model. Only 8% of males and 16% of females top 50 ranked at the age of 16 years managed to be included among the top50 senior. Only U18subgroup made the first appearance in the database (at 15-16 years) and reached the peak performance (at 20 years) earlier than top50 senior (17-18 and 26-27 years, respectively). The relative age effect was largely present in Only U18 but not in top50 senior subgroups. Most of the early-successful U18 world-class jumpers did not manage to maintain the same level of competitiveness in adulthood since they experienced a plateau in performance from 20 years of age. Conversely, top 50 ranked senior jumpers continued to produce consistent performance improvement up to 26-27 years of age.

Sustainable Sport Development: The Influence of Competitive-Grouping and Relative Age on the Performance of Young Triathletes

Competitive-grouping by chronological age is a common organizational strategy in competition which may unintentionally promote relative age effects, for the benefit of older individuals within the same competitive-group, especially in young athletes. This work presents the aim of analyzing differences in young triathletes on their performance within each competitive group. A total of 1243 entries of both sexes, both children—13–14 years old—and cadets—15–17 years old—participated. Firstly, we identified the year in the competitive group and relative-age semester for all the triathletes who competed in a total of six seasons from 2013 to 2018. Secondly, the performance indicator was calculated in all the segments in a triathlon competition for all triathletes. The Kruskal-Wallis Test and U Mann Whitney Test was applied. It was observed that all cadet triathletes born in the first semester of the year (S1, born in January–June) were faster; for both boys and girls. Likewise, it was observed that older triathletes who competed within the same category were faster, but only in males and for both competitive groups: children (p < 0.0083), and cadet (p < 0.0033). In conclusion, families, coaches and sports political agencies need a greater knowledge and understanding of the effects of relative age and competitive grouping to understand the important role of age in the development of sports talent demonstrated in this study.

The Beginning of Senior Career in Team Sport Is Affected by Relative Age Effect

Many previous studies in national team sports did not report evidence about relative age effect (RAE) in senior categories. This study aimed for the first time to determine if the RAE may specifically affect the early, but not the late, phase of senior career in elite team sports. A total of 3,319 birthdates (basketball: n = 642; rugby: n = 572; soccer: n = 1318; volleyball: n = 337; water polo: n = 450) of elite senior players were analyzed. Senior players with an age lower or equal to the 25° percentile of age were considered as early phase players while the others as late phase players. Separate Poisson regression models were applied to investigate the RAE in each sport (overall, and for early phase and late phase subgroups). Considering the overall sample, players born close to the beginning of the year were 1.57, 1.34, 2.69, 1.48, and 1.45 times more likely to reach first and second Italian division of basketball, rugby, soccer, volleyball, and water polo respectively, than those born in the last part of the year. RAE was present in all early phase subgroups. Differently, in the late phase subgroups the RAE was present only in soccer. Data highlighted a bias in the selection of senior teams, which may limit the chance to identify talented players born late in the second part of the year. Italian sport federations should promote the talent development of relatively younger players by equally promoting the joining of young players to senior teams.