Geographic Variation in Heart Failure Mortality and Its Association With Hypertension, Diabetes, and Behavioral-Related Risk Factors in 1,723 Counties of the United States

Trends of Acute Myocardial Infarction Mortality in People Over 65 Years Old in the United States From 1999-2020: Insight From the CDC-WONDER Database

Background Over the past two decades, there have been numerous advances in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) care. We assessed the impact of these advances on the trend of AMI-related mortality. Methods This retrospective analysis of the Centers for Disease Control's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC_WONDER) database focused on AMI-related mortality in individuals aged 65 and older in the United States from 1999 to 2020. Trends -n crude and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) were assessed based on socio-demographic and regional variables using Joinpoint Regression software (Joinpoint Regression Program, Version 5.0.2 - May 2023; Statistical Methodology and Applications Branch, Surveillance Research Program, National Cancer Institute Bethesda, Maryland). Annual percentage change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the AAMRs were calculated for the line segments linking a Joinpoint using a data-driven weighted Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) model. Results There were 2,354,971 AMI-related deaths with an overall decline in the AAMR from 474.6 in 1999 to 153.2 in 2020 and an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of -5.3 (95% CI -5.4 to -5.2). Notable declines were observed across gender, race, age groups, and urbanization levels. However, the rate of AMI-related deaths at decedents' homes slowed down between 2008 and 2020 and climbed up between 2018 and 2020. In addition to this, nonmetropolitan areas were found to have a significantly lower decline in mortality when compared to large and medium/small metropolitan areas. Conclusion While there is an overall positive trend in reducing AMI-associated mortality, disparities persist, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions.

Determinants of survival in patients with chronic heart failure: a population-based study in Reggio Emilia, Italy

AIMS

We aim to monitor and improve the quality of the heart failure (HF) integrated assistance model defined by national and regional guidelines and implemented in the province of Reggio Emilia, Italy. Specific aims of the audit were to estimate the prevalence of HF, describe the characteristics of patients with HF and the rate of patients enrolled in the integrated care treated in primary care, and identify socioeconomic and geographic determinants of the 4-year survival of these patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Retrospective analysis of a cohort of prevalent cases of HF, diagnosed before 31 December 2015 in Reggio Emilia, Italy, alive on 1 January 2016, and residing at the time of diagnosis on the provincial territory. Age and sex-adjusted prevalence of HF by area of residence were calculated according to the standard European population 2013. Patients were followed until death or 31 December 2019, whatever came first. The outcome measure of the study was four-year case fatality. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, sex, and duration of disease were used to determine the association between socio-geographic factors and death. The 4-year case-fatality rate was 36.7%, and it was the highest in the mountains (50.8%) compared with hills (34.6%), lowland (35.4%) and city (37.7%). The prevalence of HF was the lowest in the mountain [149.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 112.1-187.7] and the highest in the lowland (340.8, 95% CI 308.7-372.9) and city (308, 95% CI 276.0-321.2). Patients living in the mountains had a lower deprivation index, and fewer hospitalizations prior to official diagnosis, although these characteristics were not statistically significant determinants of HF death in multivariate analysis. Behavioural (smoking and obesity) and socio-geographic characteristics (educational level, deprivation index and area of residence) were not significantly associated with mortality in both univariable and multivariable analysis; however, patients who live in mountains (hazard ratio 1.10, 95% CI 0.73-1.66) or hills (hazard ratio 1.11, 95% CI 0.90-1.37) had a slightly higher risk of death than those living in the city. Only 197 (12.1%) of patients in the cohort were enrolled in the integrated care pathway over the course of 4 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Although clinical determinants outweigh the geographic and behavioural disparities in the survival of patients with CHF treated in primary care, effective prevention strategies are needed to address environmental and socio-geographic inequalities in access to primary care and to hasten equitable linkage to integrated care.

Barriers and facilitators to self-measured blood pressure monitoring among US-resettled Arab refugees with hypertension: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Minoritized communities including refugees are at an increased risk of poorly controlled hypertension. Evidence indicates that self-measured blood pressure monitoring (SMBP) is an effective method to improve blood pressure control in patients with hypertension. However, it has not been studied among refugee populations. The objective of this study is to examine barriers and facilitators to SMBP among Arab refugees resettled in the United States (US) with diagnosed hypertension.

METHODS

A total of 109 participants were recruited through a Federally Qualified Health Center system that is a major provider of healthcare to refugees in San Diego, California. Participants completed a questionnaire and were interviewed using in-depth, semi-structured interviews. Interviews were transcribed and translated, and data were coded using inductive thematic analysis and organized based on the theory of care-seeking behavior.

RESULTS

Several barriers to engaging in effective SMBP monitoring were identified. Clinical and sociodemographic barriers included reliance on public monitors and poor hypertension literacy. Psychosocial barriers of affect, norms, and habits included fear and anxiety from hypertension, cultural stigma of illness, and conditional SMBP with symptoms, respectively. Utility psychosocial barriers included lack of SMBP prioritization in treatment and perceived inaccuracy of home monitors. Family members' support with home monitoring served as an important facilitator to SMBP.

CONCLUSIONS

There are several barriers to effective SMBP among the US-resettled Arab refugee population that may reflect unique cultural and care-seeking behaviors. Tailored public health and clinical interventions are needed to support refugee patients and providers to improve hypertension self-management behaviors for this unique population.

Cardiomyopathy: Evaluating Disparities in Place of Death in the United States Using the CDC Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) Database Over 22 Years

Background The human experience involves the inevitable end of life, whether sudden or expected. Ensuring a dignified end-of-life encounter necessitates understanding influential factors. Cardiomyopathy, a group of heart muscle diseases, has varying mortality implications, including heart failure and arrhythmias. Disparities in place of death (hospital, home, or hospice) can significantly alter the end-of-life care for a patient. Methods The aim of this study is to identify variations in death locations for U.S. cardiomyopathy patients between 1999 and 2020, based on age, gender, race, and census region, utilizing the CDC WONDER ( CDC Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research) database, which contains a wide array of public health information. Data were categorized by age, gender, race, and location, and further subcategorized according to place of death. Statistical analysis was done via R programming software. Result The aggregate data of 528,401 cardiomyopathy-related deaths from 1990 to 2020 were obtained. Findings revealed age, gender, and regional disparities in death location. Notably, cardiomyopathy is found to be prevalent in the 75+ years age group, male gender, and people belonging to Caucasian descent, and maximal in the Southern census area. The study's logistic regression analysis unveiled a significant association between demographic factors and death locations. Conclusion This research underscores the significance of understanding disparities in the place of death for cardiomyopathy patients, shedding light on demographic influences and paving the way for patient-centered end-of-life care approaches.

Sensor-Controlled Digital Game for Heart Failure Self-management: Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is the leading cause of hospitalization among older adults in the United States. There are substantial racial and geographic disparities in HF outcomes, with patients living in southern US states having a mortality rate 69% higher than the national average. Self-management behaviors, particularly daily weight monitoring and physical activity, are extremely important in improving HF outcomes; however, patients typically have particularly low adherence to these behaviors. With the rise of digital technologies to improve health outcomes and motivate health behaviors, sensor-controlled digital games (SCDGs) have become a promising approach. SCDGs, which leverage sensor-connected technologies, offer the benefits of being portable and scalable and allowing for continuous observation and motivation of health behaviors in their real-world contexts. They are also becoming increasingly popular among older adults and offer an immersive and accessible way to measure self-management behaviors and improve adherence. No SCDGs have been designed for older adults or evaluated to test their outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

This randomized clinical trial aims to assess the efficacy of a SCDG in integrating the behavioral data of participants with HF from weight scale and activity tracker sensors to activate game progress, rewards, and feedback and, ultimately, to improve adherence to important self-management behaviors.

METHODS

A total of 200 participants with HF, aged ≥45 years, will be recruited and randomized into 2 groups: the SCDG playing group (intervention group) and sensor-only group (control group). Both groups will receive a weight scale, physical activity tracker, and accompanying app, whereas only the intervention group will play the SCDG. This design, thereby, assesses the contributions of the game. All participants will complete a baseline survey as well as posttests at 6 and 12 weeks to assess the immediate effect of the intervention. They will also complete a third posttest at 24 weeks to assess the maintenance of behavioral changes. Efficacy and benefits will be assessed by measuring improvements in HF-related proximal outcomes (self-management behaviors of daily weight monitoring and physical activity) and distal outcomes (HF hospitalization, quality of life, and functional status) between baseline and weeks 6, 12, and 24. The primary outcome measured will be days with weight monitoring, for which this design provides at least 80% power to detect differences between the 2 groups.

RESULTS

Recruitment began in the fall of 2022, and the first patient was enrolled in the study on November 7, 2022. Recruitment of the last participant is expected in quarter 1 of 2025. Publication of complete results and data from this study is expected in 2026.

CONCLUSIONS

This project will generate insight and guidance for scalable and easy-to-use digital gaming solutions to motivate persistent adherence to HF self-management behaviors and improve health outcomes among individuals with HF.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05056129; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05056129.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/45801.

Trends in Heart Failure-Related Mortality Among Older Adults in the United States From 1999-2019

BACKGROUND

The U.S. population is aging with concurrent increases in heart failure (HF) burden. However, HF-related mortality trends among adults ≥75 years have not been investigated.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to assess the trends and regional differences in HF-related mortality among older adults in the United States.

METHODS

Death certificates from the CDC WONDER (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging OnLine Data for Epidemiologic Research) database were examined from 1999 to 2019 for HF-related mortality in adults ≥75 years of age. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 10,000 persons and annual percent change (APC) were calculated and stratified by year, sex, race/ethnicity, and geographic region.

RESULTS

Between 1999 and 2019, 5,014,919 HF-related deaths occurred among adults ≥75 years. The AAMR declined from 141.0 in 1999 to 108.3 in 2012 (APC: -2.1; 95% CI: -2.4 to -1.9), after which it increased to 121.3 in 2019 (APC: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.2-2.2). Men had consistently higher AAMR than women from 1999 (AAMR men: 158.3 vs women: 131.0) to 2019 (AAMR men: 141.1 vs women: 107.8). Non-Hispanic (NH) White adults had the highest overall AAMR (127.2), followed by NH Black (108.7), NH American Indian/Alaska Native (102.0), Hispanic or Latino (78.0), and NH Asian or Pacific Islander adults (57.1) AAMR also varied substantially by region (overall AAMR: Midwest 133.9; South: 119.2; West: 116.3; Northeast: 113.5), and nonmetropolitan areas had higher HF-related AAMR (147.0) than metropolitan areas (115.2). States in the top 90th percentile of HF-related AAMR were Mississippi, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Oregon, and Indiana, which had approximately double the AAMRs compared with states that fell into the lower 10th percentile.

CONCLUSIONS

Following a period of steady decline, HF-related mortality in U.S. adults ≥75 years has increased since 2012. The highest AAMRs were observed among White adults and men, and among patients living in the Midwestern and nonmetropolitan United States. Targeted strategies are needed to prevent and treat HF among older adults to curb increasing levels of HF-related mortality.

Demographic and Regional Trends of Heart Failure-Related Mortality in Young Adults in the US, 1999-2019

Importance

There are limited data on mortality trends in young adults with heart failure (HF).

Objective

To study the trends in HF-related mortality among young adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort analysis used mortality data of young adults aged 15 to 44 years with HF listed as a contributing or underlying cause of death in the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database from January 1999 to December 2019. Analysis took place in October 2021.

Exposures

Age 15 to 44 years with HF listed as a contributing or underlying cause of death.

Main Outcomes and Measures

HF-related age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per 100 000 US population stratified by sex, race and ethnicity, and geographic areas.

Results

Between 1999 and 2019, a total of 61 729 HF-related deaths occurred in young adults. Of these, 38 629 (62.0%) were men and 23 460 (38.0%) were women, and 22 156 (35.9%) were Black, 6648 (10.8%) were Hispanic, and 30 145 (48.8%) were White. The overall AAMR per 100 000 persons for HF in young adults increased from 2.36 in 1999 to 3.16 in 2019. HF mortality increased in young men and women, with men having higher AAMRs throughout the study period. AAMR increased for all race and ethnicity groups, with Black adults having the highest AAMRs (6.41 in 1999 and 8.58 in 2019). AAMR for Hispanic adults and White adults increased from 1.62 to 2.04 and 1.83 to 2.45 over the same time period, respectively. Across most demographic and regional subgroups, HF-related mortality stayed stable or decreased between 1999 and 2012, followed by an increase between 2012 and 2019. There were significant regional differences in the burden of HF-related mortality, with states in the upper 90th percentile of HF-related mortality (Oklahoma, South Carolina, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama, and Mississippi) having a significantly higher mortality burden compared with those in the bottom tenth percentile.

Conclusions and Relevance

Following an initial period of stability, HF-related mortality in young adults increased from 2012 to 2019 in the United States. Black adults have a 3-fold higher AAMR compared with White adults, with significant geographic variation. Targeted health policy measures are needed to address the rising burden of HF in young adults, with a focus on prevention, early diagnosis, and reduction in disparities.

Results of pilot remote monitoring of heart failure patients

Aim. To analyze the results of remote monitoring of patients with decompensated heart failure (HF) based on the assessment of quality of life (QOL), self-care ability and adherence to treatment 3 and 6 months after discharge from the hospital.

Material and methods. The first group (experimental) consisted of 70 patients who, along with the approved healthcare standard, underwent measures according to the developed model for managing HF patients, including remote monitoring. The second group (control) included 65 patients who received care according to generally accepted algorithms for managing HF patients. In the study group, there were 46% men (69,6±9,4 years) and 54% women (71,7±9,9 years). The control group also included 46% men (70,6±9,1 years) and 54% women (73,0±10,3 years). Class I HF in the first group had 4%, while in the second — 3%; class II HF in both groups occurred in 11%; class III in the first group — 43%, in the second group — 54%, class IV HF in the first group — 41%, in the second group — 32% of patients. We conducted a standard clinical examination, assessed QOL, self-care ability, and adherence to treatment.

Results. In the first group, after 3 months, compared with the baseline, the average Minnesota Satisfaction Questionnaire (MSQ) score was lower by 37 (p=0,037), while after 6 months — by 33,6 (p=0,026). After 3 months according to the MSQ, the QOL in the second group was higher by 7,9 points (p=0,0001); according to the Morisky-Green test — lower by 1,2 points (p=0,0003); according to the self-care questionnaire — higher by 4,7 points (p=0,0001) than in the first group. After 6 months, MSQ score in the second group was higher by 10,4 points (p=0,0001), according to the Morisky-Green test — lower by 1,8 points (p=0,0003); according to the self-care questionnaire  — higher by 5,6 points (p=0,0001) than in the study group.

Conclusion. The developed model for managing HF patients using remote monitoring, in comparison with the generally accepted standards, has led to an increase in QOL, adherence to treatment and self-care ability of patients.

Epidemiology of geographic disparities in heart failure among US older adults: a Medicare-based analysis

BACKGROUND

There are prominent geographic disparities in the life expectancy (LE) of older US adults between the states with the highest (leading states) and lowest (lagging states) LE and their causes remain poorly understood. Heart failure (HF) has been proposed as a major contributor to these disparities. This study aims to investigate geographic disparities in HF outcomes between the leading and lagging states.

METHODS

The study was a secondary data analysis of HF outcomes in older US adults aged 65+, using Center for Disease Control and Prevention sponsored Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database and a nationally representative 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries over 2000-2017. Empiric estimates of death certificate-based mortality from HF as underlying cause of death (CBM-UCD)/multiple cause of death (CBM-MCD); HF incidence-based mortality (IBM); HF incidence, prevalence, and survival were compared between the leading and lagging states. Cox regression was used to investigate the effect of residence in the lagging states on HF incidence and survival.

RESULTS

Between 2000 and 2017, HF mortality rates (per 100,000) were higher in the lagging states (CBM-UCD: 188.5-248.6; CBM-MCD: 749.4-965.9; IBM: 2656.0-2978.4) than that in the leading states (CBM-UCD: 79.4-95.6; CBM-MCD: 441.4-574.1; IBM: 1839.5-2138.1). Compared to their leading counterparts, lagging states had higher HF incidence (2.9-3.9% vs. 2.2-2.9%), prevalence (15.6-17.2% vs. 11.3-13.0%), and pre-existing prevalence at age 65 (5.3-7.3% vs. 2.8-4.1%). The most recent rates of one- (77.1% vs. 80.4%), three- (59.0% vs. 60.7%) and five-year (45.8% vs. 49.8%) survival were lower in the lagging states. A greater risk of HF incidence (Adjusted Hazards Ratio, AHR [95%CI]: 1.29 [1.29-1.30]) and death after HF diagnosis (AHR: 1.12 [1.11-1.13]) was observed for populations in the lagging states. The study also observed recent increases in CBMs and HF incidence, and declines in HF prevalence, prevalence at age 65 and survival with a decade-long plateau stage in IBM in both leading and lagging states.

CONCLUSION

There are substantial geographic disparities in HF mortality, incidence, prevalence, and survival across the U.S.: HF incidence, prevalence at age 65 (age of Medicare enrollment), and survival of patients with HF contributed most to these disparities. The geographic disparities and the recent increase in incidence and decline in survival underscore the importance of HF prevention strategies.

Mississippi CHAMPS: Decreasing Racial Inequities in Breastfeeding

Mississippi CHAMPS addressed racial inequities in breastfeeding by implementing community and hospital-based practice changes in accordance with the BFHI and by parallel community work.

Demographic and Regional Trends of Mortality in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction in the United States, 1999 to 2019

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI)-related mortality has been decreasing within the United States because of improvements in management and preventive efforts; however, persistent disparities in demographic subsets such as race may exist. In this study, the nationwide trends in mortality related to AMI in adults in the United States from 1999 to 2019 are described. Trends in mortality related to AMI were assessed through a cross-sectional analysis of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database. Age-adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 people and associated annual percentage change and average annual percentage changes with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were determined. Joinpoint regression was used to assess the trends in the overall, demographic (gender, race/ethnicity, age), and regional groups. Between 1999 and 2019, a total of 3,655,274 deaths related to AMI occurred. In the overall population, age-adjusted mortality rates decreased from 134.7 (95% CI 134.2 to 135.3) in 1999 to 48.5 (95% CI 48.3 to 48.8) in 2019 with an average annual percentage change of -5.0 (95% CI -5.5 to -4.6). Higher mortality rates were seen in Black individuals, men, and those living in the South. Patients older than 85 years experienced substantial decreases in mortality. In addition, rural counties had persistently higher mortality rates in comparison with urban counties. In conclusion, despite decreasing mortality rates in all groups, persistent disparities continued to exist throughout the study period.

The contemporary trends and geographic variation in premature mortality due to heart failure from 1999 to 2018 in the United States

•

There were 118,116 premature deaths due to heart failure from 1999 to 2018 across the U.S.

•

Of these 52.40% of deaths were reported in the South, 20.30% in the Midwest, 15.10% in the West, and 12.20% in the Northeast.

•

A downward trajectory of overall HF-related premature mortality was observed till 2012 followed by a substantial rise till 2018.

•

Our findings may help clinicians to understand the gravity of the problem and navigate public health interventions to reverse the current trajectory.

Objectives

We aimed to examine the contemporary trends and regional variations in premature mortality due to heart failure across the U.S. from 1999 to 2018.

Background

For most U.S. census regions, it is unknown whether premature mortality (deaths among persons under age 65) due to heart failure is increasing -or decreasing.

Methods

In this descriptive study, the death certificate data were retrieved from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) database and examined from 1999 to 2018 for the underlying cause of death. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per 100,000 persons and annual percent change (APC) in rates stratified by census region were calculated using Joinpoint trend analysis software.

Results

There were 118,116 premature deaths due to heart failure from 1999 to 2018 across the U.S. Of these 52.40% of deaths were reported in the South, 20.30% in the Midwest, 15.10% in the West, and 12.20% in the Northeast. The AAMRs were the highest in the South region (range: 3.1–4.9) and the lowest in the Northeast region (range: 1.5–1.9). There was an overall decline in mortality across all regions from 1999 till 2011–2012. However, mortality has an upward trajectory throughout all the census regions after 2012.

Conclusions

This study on nationwide data showed that overall premature mortality due to heart failure declined from 1999 to 2011–2012 followed by an upward trajectory from 2012 to 2018; the explanation for this merits further discovery.

Geographic Variation in Trends and Disparities in Heart Failure Mortality in the United States, 1999 to 2017

Background Cardiovascular disease mortality related to heart failure (HF) is rising in the United States. It is unknown whether trends in HF mortality are consistent across geographic areas and are associated with state-level variation in cardiovascular health (CVH). The goal of the present study was to assess regional and state-level trends in cardiovascular disease mortality related to HF and their association with variation in state-level CVH. Methods and Results Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per 100 000 attributable to HF were ascertained using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research from 1999 to 2017. CVH at the state-level was quantified using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Linear regression was used to assess temporal trends in HF AAMR were examined by census region and state and to examine the association between state-level CVH and HF AAMR. AAMR attributable to HF declined from 1999 to 2011 and increased between 2011 and 2017 across all census regions. Annual increases after 2011 were greatest in the Midwest (β=1.14 [95% CI, 0.75, 1.53]) and South (β=0.96 [0.66, 1.26]). States in the South and Midwest consistently had the highest HF AAMR in all time periods, with Mississippi having the highest AAMR (109.6 [104.5, 114.6] in 2017). Within race‒sex groups, consistent geographic patterns were observed. The variability in HF AAMR was associated with state-level CVH (P<0.001). Conclusions Wide geographic variation exists in HF mortality, with the highest rates and greatest recent increases observed in the South and Midwest. Higher levels of poor CVH in these states suggest the potential for interventions to promote CVH and reduce the burden of HF.

Changing Spatiotemporal Trends in County-Level Heart Failure Death Rates in the United States, 1999 to 2018

Background

Amid recently rising heart failure (HF) death rates in the United States, we describe county‐level trends in HF mortality from 1999 to 2018 by racial/ethnic group and sex for ages 35 to 64 years and 65 years and older.

Methods and Results

Applying a hierarchical Bayesian model to National Vital Statistics data representing all US deaths, ages 35 years and older, we estimated annual age‐standardized county‐level HF death rates and percent change by age group, racial/ethnic group, and sex from 1999 through 2018. During 1999 to 2011, ~30% of counties experienced increasing HF death rates among adults ages 35 to 64 years. However, during 2011 to 2018, 86.9% (95% CI, 85.2–88.2) of counties experienced increasing mortality. Likewise, for ages 65 years and older, during 1999 to 2005 and 2005 to 2011, 27.8% (95% CI, 25.8–29.8) and 12.6% (95% CI, 11.2–13.9) of counties, respectively, experienced increasing mortality. However, during 2011 to 2018, most counties (67.4% [95% CI, 65.4–69.5]) experienced increasing mortality. These temporal patterns by age group held across racial/ethnic group and sex.

Conclusions

These results provide local context to previously documented recent national increases in HF death rates. Although county‐level declines were most common before 2011, some counties and demographic groups experienced increasing HF death rates during this period of national declines. However, recent county‐level increases were pervasive, occurring across counties, racial/ethnic group, and sex, particularly among ages 35 to 64 years. These spatiotemporal patterns highlight the need to identify and address underlying clinical risk factors and social determinants of health contributing to these increasing trends.

Impact of diabetes mellitus and cardiometabolic syndrome on the risk of Alzheimer’s disease among postmenopausal women

BACKGROUND

In spite of an increase in the incidence and prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in the aging population worldwide, limited attention has been paid to their potential association.

AIM

To investigate the association of DM and cardiometabolic syndrome (CMS, a precursor to DM) with risk of incident AD among postmenopausal women.

METHODS

Postmenopausal women aged 50-79 (n = 63117) who participated in the U.S. Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study (WHIOS), recruited in 1993-1998, without baseline AD and followed up through March 1, 2019, were analyzed. AD was classified by participant-reported history of doctor-diagnosis of incident AD in the WHIOS. DM was defined by participant-report or treated because of diabetes or serum glucose concentrations ≥ 126 mg/dL. CMS was defined as having ≥ 3 of five CMS components: large waist circumference, high blood pressure, elevated triglycerides, elevated glucose, and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. The associations of DM and CMS with AD were analyzed using Cox’s proportional hazards regression analysis.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 20 years (range: 3.36 to 23.36 years), of 63117 participants, 8340 developed incident AD. Women with DM had significantly higher incidence of AD [8.5, 95% confidence interval (CI): 8.0-9.0 per 1000 person-years (PY)] than those without DM (7.1, 95%CI: 6.9-7.2 per 1000 PY). Multivariate Cox’s regression analysis indicated that women with DM or CMS had a significantly higher risk of AD than those without DM or CMS. The corresponding hazard ratios [HR (95%CI)] were 1.22 (1.13-1.31, P < 0.001) in subjects with DM, and 1.18 (1.09-1.27, P < 0.001) in subjects with CMS. The HRs diminished with age and became non-significant in the oldest age group.

CONCLUSION

During a median follow-up of 20 years, DM and CMS were significantly associated with the risk of AD among postmenopausal women. More specifically, women aged 50-69 with DM or CMS vs those without these conditions had significantly higher relative risks of AD than the relative risks of AD in those aged 70-79 with DM or CMS vs those without DM or CMS.

Models for Heart Failure Admissions and Admission Rates, 2016 through 2018

BACKGROUND

Approximately 6.5 to 6.9 million individuals in the United States have heart failure, and the disease costs approximately $43.6 billion in 2020. This research provides geographical incidence and cost models of this disease in the U.S. and explanatory models to account for hospitals' number of heart failure DRGs using technical, workload, financial, geographical, and time-related variables.

METHODS

The number of diagnoses is forecast using regression (constrained and unconstrained) and ensemble (random forests, extra trees regressor, gradient boosting, and bagging) techniques at the hospital unit of analysis. Descriptive maps of heart failure diagnostic-related groups (DRGs) depict areas of high incidence. State- and county-level spatial and non-spatial regression models of heart failure admission rates are performed. Expenditure forecasts are estimated.

RESULTS

The incidence of heart failure has increased over time with the highest intensities in the East and center of the country; however, several Northern states have seen large increases since 2016. The best predictive model for the number of diagnoses (hospital unit of analysis) was an extremely randomized tree ensemble (predictive R² = 0.86). The important variables in this model included workload metrics and hospital type. State-level spatial lag models using first-order Queen criteria were best at estimating heart failure admission rates (R² = 0.816). At the county level, OLS was preferred over any GIS model based on Moran's I and resultant R²; however, none of the traditional models performed well (R² = 0.169 for the OLS). Gradient-boosted tree models predicted 36% of the total sum of squares; the most important factors were facility workload, mean cash on hand of the hospitals in the county, and mean equity of those hospitals. Online interactive maps at the state and county levels are provided.

CONCLUSIONS

Heart failure and associated expenditures are increasing. Costs of DRGs in the study increased $61 billion from 2016 through 2018. The increase in the more expensive DRG 291 outpaced others with an associated increase of $92 billion. With the increase in demand and steady-state supply of cardiologists, the costs are likely to balloon over the next decade. Models such as the ones presented here are needed to inform healthcare leaders.

Etiological Role of Diet in 30-Day Readmissions for Heart Failure: Implications for Reducing Heart Failure-Associated Costs via Culinary Medicine

Background. Reducing the under-30-day readmission for heart failure (HF) patients is a modifiable quality-of-care measure, yet the role of diet in HF readmissions and cost-effective HF care remain ill-defined. Methods. Medical chart review was conducted to determine cause(s) for HF treatment failure. Randomized controlled trial-backed machine learning models were employed to assess the relationship of culinary medicine education with HF 30-day readmission rate and cost. Results. Of 1031 HF admissions, 130 occurred within 30 days of discharge (12.61%.) Nearly two-thirds of individuals were male (64.02%), while the mean age and median length of stay were 64.33 ± 14.02 and 2, respectively. Medication noncompliance (34.62%) was the most common etiology for 30-day readmissions, followed by dietary noncompliance (16.92%), comorbidity (16.92%), a combination of dietary and medication noncompliance (10%), HF exacerbation (10%), iatrogenic (10%), and drug abuse (1.54%). Medication noncompliance contributed to the highest gross charge by readmission, costing a total of $1 802 096. Compared with traditional care, culinary medicine education for HF patients would prevent 93 HF readmissions and save $3.9 million in an estimated 4-year period. Conclusion. Though pharmacological treatment remains a focal point of HF management, diet-based approaches may improve tertiary HF prevention and reduce HF-associated health care expenditures.

Pseudouridine and N-formylmethionine associate with left ventricular mass index: Metabolome-wide association analysis of cardiac remodeling

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is the fastest growing form of cardiovascular disease both nationally and globally, underlining a need to phenotype subclinical HF intermediaries to improve primary prevention.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to identify novel metabolite associations with left ventricular (LV) remodeling, one upstream HF intermediary, among a community-based cohort of individuals.

METHODS

We examined 1052 Bogalusa Heart Study participants (34.98% African American, 57.41% female, aged 33.6-57.5 years). Measures of LV mass and relative wall thickness (RWT) were obtained using two-dimensional-guided echocardiographic measurements via validated eqs. LV mass was indexed to height^2.7 to calculate left ventricular mass index (LVMI). Untargeted metabolomic analysis of fasting serum samples was conducted. In combined and ethnicity-stratified analyses, multivariable linear and multinomial logistic regression models tested the associations of metabolites with the continuous LVMI and RWT and categorical LV geometry phenotypes, respectively, after adjusting for demographic and traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors.

RESULTS

Pseudouridine (B = 1.38; p = 3.20 × 10^-5) and N-formylmethionine (B = 1.65; 3.30 × 10^-6) were significantly associated with LVMI in the overall sample as well significant in Caucasians, with consistent effect direction and nominal significance (p < .05) in African Americans. Upon exclusion of individuals with self-report myocardial infarction or congestive HF, we similarly observed a 1.33 g/m^2.7 and 1.52 g/m^2.7 higher LVMI for each standard deviation increase in pseudouridine and N-formylmethionine, respectively. No significant associations were observed for metabolites with RWT or categorical LV remodeling outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The current analysis identified novel associations of pseudouridine and N-formylmethionine with LVMI, suggesting that mitochondrial-derived metabolites may serve as early biomarkers for LV remodeling and subclinical HF.

Race and Sex Differences in Modifiable Risk Factors and Incident Heart Failure

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to examine race- and sex-based variation in the associations between modifiable risk factors and incident heart failure (HF) among the SCCS (Southern Community Cohort Study) participants.

BACKGROUND

Low-income individuals in the southeastern United States have high HF incidence rates, but relative contributions of risk factors to HF are understudied in this population.

METHODS

We studied 27,078 black or white SCCS participants (mean age: 56 years, 69% black, 63% women) enrolled between 2002 and 2009, without prevalent HF, receiving Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. The presence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, physical underactivity, high body mass index, smoking, high cholesterol, and poor diet was assessed at enrollment. Incident HF was ascertained using International Classification of Diseases-9th revision, codes 428.x in Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data through December 31, 2010. Individual risk and population attributable risk for HF for each risk factor were quantified using multivariable Cox models.

RESULTS

During a median (25th, 75th percentile) 5.2 (3.1, 6.7) years, 4,341 (16%) participants developed HF. Hypertension and diabetes were associated with greatest HF risk, whereas hypertension contributed the greatest population attributable risk, 31.8% (95% confidence interval: 27.3 to 36.0). In black participants, only hypertension and diabetes associated with HF risk; in white participants, smoking and high body mass index also associated with HF risk. Physical underactivity was a risk factor only in white women.

CONCLUSIONS

In this high-risk, low-income cohort, contributions of risk factors to HF varied, particularly by race. To reduce the population burden of HF, interventions tailored for specific race and sex groups may be warranted.

Congestive heart failure-related hospital deaths across the urban-rural continuum in the United States

Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a growing public health problem that affects nearly 6.5 million individuals nationwide. Access to quality outpatient care and disease management programs has been shown to improve disease treatment and prognosis. Rural populations face unique challenges in the availability and accessibility of quality cardiovascular care. In 2018, we conducted a pooled cross-sectional analysis of the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) for 2009–2014 to examine recent trends in CHF-related hospital deaths in the United States, highlighting urban-rural differences within each census region. We performed a multivariable logistic regression analysis to compare the odds of CHF-related hospital death, by levels of rurality and within each census region. Most CHF-related hospital deaths occurred in the South and Midwest census regions and in large central metropolitan areas. Findings from census region stratified models revealed that non-core residents living within the West (OR 1.47, CI 1.26, 1.71), Midwest (OR 1.30, CI 1.17, 1.44), and South (OR = 1.21, 95% C.I. = 1.12–1.32) had a higher relative risk (but not higher absolute numbers) of experiencing death during a CHF-related hospitalization, compared to patients in large central metropolitan areas. Within each census region, there were also differences in odds of a CHF-related hospital death depending on patient sex, comorbidities, insurance type, median annual income, and year. As efforts to reduce rural health disparities in CHF morbidity continue, more work is needed to understand and test interventions to reduce the risk of death from CHF in noncore areas of the West, Midwest, and South.

Regional Variation in the Association of Poverty and Heart Failure Mortality in the 3135 Counties of the United States

Background There is significant geographical variation in heart failure (HF) mortality across the United States. County socioeconomic factors that influence these outcomes are unknown. We studied the association between county socioeconomic factors and HF mortality and compared it with coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality. Methods and Results This is a cross-sectional analysis of socioeconomic factors and mortality in HF and CHD across 3135 US counties from 2010 to 2015. County-level poverty, education, income, unemployment, health insurance status, and cause-specific mortality rates were collected from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and US Census Bureau databases. Poverty had the strongest correlation with both HF and CHD mortality, disproportionately higher for HF (r=0.48) than CHD (r=0.24). HF mortality increased by 5.2 deaths/100 000 for each percentage increase in county poverty prevalence in a frequency-weighted, demographic-adjusted, multivariate regression model. The greatest attenuation in the poverty regression coefficient (66.4%) was seen after adjustment for prevalence of diabetes mellitus and obesity. Subgroup analysis by census region showed that this relationship was the strongest in the South and weakest in the Northeast (6.1 versus 1.4 deaths/100 000 per 1% increase in county poverty in a demographics-adjusted model). Conclusions County poverty is the strongest socioeconomic factor associated with HF and CHD mortality, an association that is stronger with HF than with CHD and varied by census region. Over half of the association was explained by differences in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus and obesity across the counties. Health policies targeting improvement in these risk factors may address and possibly minimize health disparities caused by socioeconomic factors.

Geographical Variations in Patients with Heart Failure and Preserved Ejection Fraction: A Sub-Group Analysis of the APOLLON Registry

Background:

Clinical characteristics of patients with heart failure may vary geographically. However, limited data are available regarding the geographical differences of patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction.

Aims:

The present subgroup analysis aims to investigate the geographical differences in clinical characteristics, management, and primary etiology of patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction in Turkey.

Study Design:

A cross-sectional study.

Methods:

A comPrehensive, ObservationaL registry of heart faiLure with mid-range and preserved ejection fractiON (APOLLON) is a multicenter and observational study conducted in seven regions of Turkey (NCT03026114). The present study is a post-hoc analysis of the APOLLON registry. In this substudy, we compared the clinical characteristics of 819 consecutive patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction (mean age, 67 years; 57.8% women) admitted to cardiology outpatient units in different geographical regions.

Results:

Based on the geographical distribution of the entire Turkish population, the highest number of patients enrolled were from Marmara (271 patients, 33.1%). All demographical characteristics, clinical and laboratory findings, comorbidities, primary etiology, and medications prescribed were significantly different between the regions. Furthermore, inter-regional gender differences were identified. Comparatively, the Aegean and Mediterranean regions had older patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction (p<0.001), and the Black Sea, Southeast, and East Anatolia regions had predominantly male patients (51.2, 54.5, and 56.9%, respectively; p=0.002). Notably, the Mediterranean and Southeast Anatolia had more symptomatic patients, and history of hospitalization for heart failure was more prevalent in Southeast Anatolia (33.3%, p<0.001). Prevalence of atrial fibrillation was higher in the Mediterranean and Southeast Anatolia regions (51 and 48.5%, p<0.001), and patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction had a higher prevalence of hypertension in the Mediterranean, Southeast Anatolia, and Black Sea regions (p=0.002). Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors were more frequently prescribed in East Anatolia (52.3%, p=0.001), and the prevalence of patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction using loop diuretics (48.8%, p=0.003) was higher in the Black Sea region.

Conclusion:

This study was the first to show geographical differences in clinical characteristics of patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction in Turkey. Determination of the clinical characteristics of the heart failure and preserved ejection fraction population based on the geographical region may enables physicians to adopt a region-specific clinical approach toward heart failure and preserved ejection fraction.