Potential Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Future Birth Rate

Haemoglobinopathies and other rare anemias in Spain: ten years of a nationwide registry (REHem-AR)

REHem-AR was created in 2013. The progressive implementation of neonatal screening for haemoglobinopathies in Spanish autonomous communities where the registry had not been implemented, as well as the addition of new centres during this period, has considerably increased the sample of patients covered. In this study, we update our previous publication in this area, after a follow-up of more than 5 years. An observational, descriptive, multicentre and ambispective study of adult and paediatric patients with haemoglobinopathies and rare anaemias registered in REHem was performed. The data are from a cross-sectional analysis performed on 1 June, 2023. The study population comprised 1,756 patients, of whom 1,317 had SCD, 214 had thalassaemia and 224 were diagnosed with another condition. Slightly more than one third of SCD patients (37%) were diagnosed based on neonatal bloodspot screening, and the mean age at diagnosis was 2.5 years; 71% of thalassaemia patients were diagnosed based on the presence of anaemia. Vaso-occlusive crisis and acute chest syndrome continue to be the most frequent complications in SCD. HSCT was performed in 83 patients with SCD and in 50 patients with thalassaemia. Since the previous publication, REHem-AR has grown in size by more than 500 cases. SCD and TM are less frequent in Spain than in other European countries, although the data show that rare anaemias are frequent within rare diseases. REHem-AR constitutes an important structure for following the natural history of rare anaemias and enables us to calculate investment needs for current and future treatments.

Associations between the COVID-19 pandemic and women's fertility intentions: a multi-country, cross-sectional (I-SHARE) study

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic, together with the subsequent social distancing measures, could lead to shifts in family and fertility planning. This study aimed to explore the associations between the COVID-19 pandemic and changes in fertility intentions among an international sample of reproductive-aged women.

METHODS

A multi-country, cross-sectional study based on data from 10 672 women aged 18-49 years who participated in the International Sexual Health And REproductive Health (I-SHARE) study, which organised an international online survey between July 2020 and February 2021. Factors associated with changes in fertility intentions were explored using multinomial probit regression models. Cluster-robust standard errors were used to calculate model parameters.

RESULTS

Of 10 672 included reproductive-aged women, 14.4% reported changing their fertility intentions due to the pandemic, with 10.2% postponement and 4.2% acceleration. Women who had ever been isolated/quarantined were more likely to postpone their fertility intentions (adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=1.41; 95% CI 1.18 to 1.69) compared with those who had not; women who lived with a steady partner were more likely to want children sooner (AOR=1.57; 95% CI 1.10 to 2.23) compared with those who did not; and those who reported a higher frequency of getting angry, feeling frustrated, or worrying about their finances were more likely to postpone their fertility intentions. The main findings were robust in the sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Most women who changed fertility intentions because of the pandemic have postponed intentions to expand their families. The pandemic-induced exposures were associated with these postponements.

Net benefit of smaller human populations to environmental integrity and individual health and wellbeing

Introduction

The global human population is still growing such that our collective enterprise is driving environmental catastrophe. Despite a decline in average population growth rate, we are still experiencing the highest annual increase of global human population size in the history of our species-averaging an additional 84 million people per year since 1990. No review to date has accumulated the available evidence describing the associations between increasing population and environmental decline, nor solutions for mitigating the problems arising.

Methods

We summarize the available evidence of the relationships between human population size and growth and environmental integrity, human prosperity and wellbeing, and climate change. We used PubMed, Google Scholar, and Web of Science to identify all relevant peer-reviewed and gray-literature sources examining the consequences of human population size and growth on the biosphere. We reviewed papers describing and quantifying the risks associated with population growth, especially relating to climate change.

Results

These risks are global in scale, such as greenhouse-gas emissions, climate disruption, pollution, loss of biodiversity, and spread of disease-all potentially catastrophic for human standards of living, health, and general wellbeing. The trends increasing the risks of global population growth are country development, demographics, maternal education, access to family planning, and child and maternal health.

Conclusion

Support for nations still going through a demographic transition is required to ensure progress occurs within planetary boundaries and promotes equity and human rights. Ensuring the wellbeing for all under this aim itself will lower population growth and further promote environmental sustainability.

The (temporary) Covid-19 baby bust in Mexico

In this paper, we investigate whether fertility and newborn health changed during the Covid-19 pandemic in Mexico. We use national administrative data and an event-study design to examine the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on fertility and newborn health characteristics. Our findings suggest that Mexico's fertility declined temporarily as measured by conceptions that likely occurred during the stay-at-home order. Initially, the general fertility rate fell by 11-12 per cent but quickly rebounded and returned close to its original levels by the end of 2021. Newborn health also deteriorated during the pandemic. Instances of low birthweight and prematurity substantially increased, with both remaining elevated over the entire pandemic period.

The impact of COVID-19-related restrictions on pregnancy and abortion rates in the Republic of Georgia

BACKGROUND

The Republic of Georgia implemented COVID-19-related restrictions starting on 31 March 2020, when it imposed a 1-month strict lockdown, after which the country continued with some form of restrictions for 1 year. These restrictions created barriers to healthcare access, affected healthcare services, caused severe economic degradation, and changed reproductive behavior. The aim of this study was to explore the impact of COVID-19-related restrictions on pregnancy and abortion rates in Georgia.

METHODS

Information on pregnancy, abortion, and related variables was extracted from the Georgian Birth Registry from January 2018 through April 2022. The final study sample included 232,594 pregnancies and 86,729 abortions. We used interrupted time series analysis to study the impact of COVID-19-related restrictions.

RESULTS

There were slightly decreasing trends in pregnancy and abortion rates in the pre-pandemic period (1 January 2018-31 March 2020). During the 1-month strict lockdown (1 April-30 April 2020), pregnancy and abortion rates decreased in all investigated age groups. There were no substantial differences in pregnancy or abortion rates in the pandemic period (for pregnancies: 1 April 2020-30 June 2021; for abortions: 1 April 2020-30 April 2022) compared to the pre-pandemic period. The precision of all estimates suggested that both small increases and decreases in pregnancy and abortion rates are reasonably compatible with our data.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the 1-year-long COVID-19-related restrictions, our results did not indicate substantial long-term changes in pregnancy or abortion rates during the study period for any age group. This may indicate that the restrictions did not substantially influence access to contraception, abortion services, or reproductive behavior.

Temporal analysis of mortality from preventable causes in the first 24 hours of life, 2000-2021

OBJECTIVE

to analyze the temporal pattern and estimate mortality rates in the first 24 hours of life and from preventable causes in the state of Pernambuco from 2000 to 2021.

METHOD

an ecological study, using the quarter as the unit of analysis. The data source was made up of the Mortality Information System and the Live Birth Information System. The time series modeling was conducted according to the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model.

RESULTS

14,462 deaths were recorded in the first 24 hours of life, 11,110 (76.8%) of which being preventable. It is observed from the forecasts that the mortality rate in the first 24 hours of life ranged from 3.3 to 2.4 per 1,000 live births, and the mortality rate from preventable causes ranged from 2.3 to 1.8 per 1,000 live births.

CONCLUSION

the prediction suggested progress in reducing mortality in the first 24 hours of life in the state and from preventable causes. The ARIMA models presented satisfactory estimates for mortality rates and preventable causes in the first 24 hours of life.

The relationship between staying at home during the pandemic and the number of conceptions: A national panel data analysis

hether the COVID-19 pandemic has changed fertility patterns is still an open question, as social isolation for long periods can impact the number of conceptions in many ways. We combine administrative data on all recent births in Brazil with daily data on individual location to estimate the relationship between the share of individuals staying close to their homes in each week and the number of conceptions in that same week, comparing municipalities with different social isolation patterns during the first semester of 2020. We find that conceptions unequivocally decline when social isolation increases. The effect is stronger for women who are between 21 and 25 years old and more educated, as well as for richer, larger, and more urban municipalities. COVID-19 is likely to change fertility across countries depending on the behavior of the population and on the lock-down measures implemented to fight the pandemic.

Did COVID-19 enlarge spatial disparities in population dynamics? A comparative, multivariate approach for Italy

A short-term issue that has been occasionally investigated in the current literature is if (and, eventually, how) population dynamics (directly or indirectly) driven by COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to enlarge regional divides in specific demographic processes and dimensions. To verify this assumption, our study run an exploratory multivariate analysis of ten indicators representative of different demographic phenomena (fertility, mortality, nuptiality, internal and international migration) and the related population outcomes (natural balance, migration balance, total growth). We developed a descriptive analysis of the statistical distribution of the ten demographic indicators using eight metrics that assess formation (and consolidation) of spatial divides, controlling for shifts over time in both central tendency, dispersion, and distributional shape regimes. All indicators were made available over 20 years (2002-2021) at a relatively detailed spatial scale (107 NUTS-3 provinces) in Italy. COVID-19 pandemic exerted an impact on Italian population because of intrinsic (e.g. a particularly older population age structure compared with other advanced economies) and extrinsic (e.g. the early start of the pandemic spread compared with the neighboring European countries) factors. For such reasons, Italy may represent a sort of 'worst' demographic scenario for other countries affected by COVID-19 and the results of this empirical study can be informative when delineating policy measures (with both economic and social impact) able to mitigate the effect of pandemics on demographic balance and improve the adaptation capacity of local societies to future pandemic's crises.

Childbearing decisions and related factors in the COVID-19 pandemic: A narrative review study

The COVID-19 pandemic has had considerable consequences in many areas of life, including the social area and childbearing plans. The present narrative review aimed to examine the childbearing decisions and its related factors during the COVID-19 pandemic. This review was conducted by searching in scientific databases, including Web of Science, Science Direct, Google Scholar, Scopus, Cochrane, PubMed, ProQuest, Scientific Information Database (SID), Iranian Research Institute for Information Science and Technology (IranDoc) and Iranian Journal Database (Magiran) in June 2022. The search resulted in 111 sources, of which 16 were in line with the research objective. Couples have mainly cancelled or delayed their previous plans related to childbearing decisions. There are two groups of direct and indirect factors related to childbearing decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic: The former includes (1) well-being-related factors such as economic conditions, interpersonal relationships and gender roles in terms of task division; and (2) health-related factors, including health emergencies and physical and psychological health. The latter includes factors such as social distancing and social media. Based on the results, governments should facilitate childbearing by adjusting existing policies, addressing economic insecurity and protecting the livelihoods of those affected by the crisis. Health policymakers and planners must also prioritize women's access to reproductive health services in a safe environment while promoting equity in access. It is also necessary to promote the quality and quantity of indirect care and virtual counseling based on the needs of women in crisis.

The impact of COVID-19 on the birth rate in Nigeria: a report from population-based registries

Background and objectives

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic that has become a major source of morbidity and mortality worldwide, affecting the physical and mental health of individuals influencing reproduction. Despite the threat, it poses to maternal health in sub-Saharan Africa and Nigeria, there is little or no data on the impact it has on fertility, conception, gestation and birth. To compare the birth rate between pre-COVID and COVID times using selected months of the year.

Materials and methods

This was a secondary analysis of cross-sectional analytical study data from the birth registries of three tertiary hospitals, comparing two years [2019 (Pre-COVID)] versus [2020 (COVID era)] using three months of the year (October to December). The data relied upon was obtained from birth registries in three busy maternity clinics all within tertiary hospitals in South-East Nigeria and we aimed at discussing the potential impacts of COVID-19 on fertility in Nigeria. The secondary outcome measures were; mode of delivery, booking status of the participants, maternal age and occupation.

Results

There was a significant decrease in tertiary-hospital based birth rate by 92 births (P = 0.0009; 95% CI: -16.0519 to -4.1481) among mothers in all the three hospitals in 2020 during the COVID period (post lockdown months) of October to December. There was a significant difference in the mode of delivery for mothers (P = 0.0096) with a 95% confidence interval of 1.0664 to 1.5916, as more gave birth through vaginal delivery during the 2020 COVID-19 period than pre-COVID-19.

Conclusion

Tertiary-hospital based birth rates were reduced during the pandemic. Our multi-centre study extrapolated on possible factors that may have played a role in this decline in their birth rate, which includes but is not limited to; decreased access to hospital care due to the total lockdowns/curfews and worsening inflation and economic recession in the country.

Systems thinking on the gendered impacts of COVID-19 in Bangladesh: A systematic review

The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately affected women and threatens to overturn four decades of progress in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 5: Gender Equality and Women's Empowerment. To better grasp the key areas of concern that gender inequality exists, gender studies and sex-disaggregated evidence are required. Using the PRISMA technique, this review paper is the first attempt to present a comprehensive and current picture of the gendered dimensions of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh regarding economic well-being, resource endowments, and agency. This study found that women were more likely to face hardship as widows, mothers, or sole breadwinners after the loss of husbands and male household members because of the pandemic. The evidence suggests that the advancement of women during this pandemic was hampered by poor reproductive health outcomes; girls' dropping out of school; job loss; less income; a comparable wage gap; a lack of social security; unpaid work burnout; increased emotional, physical, and sexual abuse; an increase in child marriages; and less participation in leadership and decision-making. Our study found inadequate sex-disaggregated data and gender studies on COVID-19 in Bangladesh. However, our research concludes that policies must account for gender disparities and male and female vulnerability across multiple dimensions to achieve inclusive and effective pandemic prevention and recovery.

Impact of Covid-19 on rates of gestational diabetes in a North American pandemic epicenter

AIMS

We assessed the impact of Covid-19 on gestational diabetes rates in Quebec, the pandemic epicenter of Canada.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based study of 569,686 deliveries in Quebec between 2014 and 2021. We measured gestational diabetes rates in wave 1 (March 1, 2020-August 22, 2020) and wave 2 (August 23, 2020-March 31, 2021), compared with the prepandemic period. We used interrupted time series regression to assess changes in gestational diabetes rates during each wave, and log-binomial regression models to estimate adjusted risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of the pandemic with gestational diabetes. We identified the types of patients that contributed to the change in gestational diabetes rates using Kitagawa's decomposition.

RESULTS

Gestational diabetes rates were higher during the first (13.2 per 100 deliveries) and second waves (14.3 per 100 deliveries) than during the prepandemic period (12.4 per 100 deliveries). Risk of gestational diabetes increased both in wave 1 (RR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.09) and wave 2 (RR 1.14, 95% CI 1.10-1.18), compared with the prepandemic period. However, most of the increase in gestational diabetes rates was driven by low-risk women without Covid-19 infections who were socioeconomically advantaged, had no comorbidity, and were 25-34 years of age.

CONCLUSIONS

Gestational diabetes rates increased during the pandemic, mainly among women traditionally at low risk of hyperglycemia who did not have Covid-19 infections. Sudden widespread changes in screening or lifestyle can have a large impact on gestational diabetes rates in a population.

Unwanted sexual activity among United States women early in the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Female sexual activity and, accordingly, birth rates tend to decline in times of stress, such as a pandemic. In addition, when resources are scarce or exogenous conditions are threatening, some women may engage in sexual activity primarily to maintain socioeconomic security. Having unwanted sex may indicate sexual activity in exchange for economic security.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to describe patterns and correlates of unwanted sex, defined as having sex more frequently than desired, among US women early in the COVID-19 pandemic.

STUDY DESIGN

The National US Women's Health COVID-19 Study was conducted in April 2020, using a nested quota sample design to enroll 3200 English-speaking women (88% cooperation rate) aged 18 to 90 years recruited from a research panel. The quota strata ensured sufficient sample sizes in sociodemographic groups of interest, namely, racial and ethnic subgroups. Patterns of sexual activity, including unwanted sex early in the pandemic, were described. To further elucidate the experiences of women reporting unwanted sex, open-ended responses to an item querying "how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting your sex life" were assessed using conventional content analysis. Logistic regression analyses-adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, self-reported health, and prepandemic health-related socioeconomic risk factors, including food insecurity, housing instability, utilities and transportation difficulties, and interpersonal violence-were used to model the odds of unwanted sex by a pandemic-related change in health-related socioeconomic risk factors.

RESULTS

The proportion of women who were sexually active early in the pandemic (51%) was about the same as in the 12 months before the pandemic (52%), although 7% of women became active, and 7% of women became inactive. Overall, 11% of sexually active women were having unwanted sex in the early pandemic. The rates of anxiety, depression, traumatic stress symptoms, and each of the 5 health-related socioeconomic risk factors assessed were about 2 times higher among women having unwanted sex than other women (P<.001). Women having unwanted sex were also 5 times more likely than other women to report an increased frequency of sex since the pandemic (65% vs 13%; P<.001) and 6 times more likely to be using emergency contraception (18% vs 3%; P<.001). Women reporting unwanted sex commonly described decreased libido or interest in sex related to mood changes since the pandemic, having "more sex," fear or worry about the transmission of the virus because of sex, and having sex to meet the partner's needs. Among sexually active women, the odds of unwanted sex (adjusting for demographic, reproductive, and health factors) were higher among women with 1 prepandemic health-related socioeconomic risk factor (adjusted odds ratio, 2.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-3.8) and 2 or more prepandemic health-related socioeconomic risk factors (adjusted odds ratio, 6.0; 95% confidence interval, 3.4-10.6). Among sexually active women with any prepandemic health-related socioeconomic risk factor, those with new or worsening transportation difficulties early in the pandemic were particularly vulnerable to unwanted sex (adjusted odds ratio, 2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-4.3).

CONCLUSION

More than 1 in 10 sexually active US women was having unwanted sex early in the COVID-19 pandemic. Socioeconomically vulnerable women, especially those with new or worsening transportation problems because of the pandemic, were more likely than others to engage in unwanted sex. Pandemic response and recovery efforts should seek to mitigate unwanted sexual activity and related health and social risks among women.

Love in the Time of COVID-19: The Social Dimensions of Intimate Life under Lockdown

Although popular media across the United States reported that the coronavirus disease 2019 COVID pandemic incited dramatic transformations in personal relationships, identities, and practices, little sociological research examines these developments. What exists elaborates the "how" and "how much" of sex, the frequency of sexual conduct, and changes in the patterning of sexual behavior. In this study of the intimate trajectories of 46 young adults, conducted during the height of U.S. quarantine restrictions in 2020 and early 2021, the authors explore the "whys" of sex. They find that the exogenous force of the pandemic profoundly altered individual relationship trajectories, prompted sexual introspection projects, shifted understandings of sexual risk, and promoted new modes of intimacy. These findings suggest that pandemic life reached deep into subjective self-understandings and ways of relating to others. They also reveal the benefits of foregrounding cultural meanings over behaviors, changes in thoughts over actions, and social processes over individual outcomes.

Delivery and neonatal outcomes of pregnant women during the Shanghai lockdown: A retrospective analysis

OBJECTIVES

Shanghai witnessed an unprecedented outbreak of COVID-19 and experienced a strict lockdown from March 28, 2022 to May 31, 2022. Most studies to date are on the first lockdown after the outbreak in December 2019. This study aimed to examine the impact of lockdown on delivery and neonatal outcomes among uninfected pregnant women in the new phase of the COVID-19 outbreak.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted in the Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital of Fudan University. Pregnant women without COVID-19 who delivered from March 28, 2022 to May 31, 2022 (lockdown group) and the same period in 2021 (non-lockdown group) were recruited for this study. Logistic regression models and 1 : 1 propensity score matching (PSM) were used to assess the effect of lockdown on delivery outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 2,962 patients were included in this study, 1,339 of whom were from the lockdown group. Compared with the non-lockdown group, pregnant women giving birth during lockdown had an increased risk of term prelabor rupture of membranes (TPROM) (aOR = 1.253, 95% CI: 1.026-1.530), and decreased risks of postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) (aOR = 0.362, 95% CI: 0.216-0.606) and fetal malformation (aOR = 0.309, 95% CI: 0.164-0.582). The risk of large for gestational age (LGA) (aOR = 0.802, 95% CI: 0.648-0.992) and rate of admission to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) (aOR = 0.722, 95% CI: 0.589-0.885) also significantly declined. After 1 : 1 PSM, the impact of lockdown on the risk of TPROM (aOR = 1.501, 95% CI: 1.083-2.080), PPH (aOR = 0.371, 95% CI: 0.211-0.654), fetal malformation (aOR = 0.332, 95% CI: 0.161-0.684), LGA (aOR = 0.749, 95% CI: 0.594-0.945) and rate of admission to the NICU (aOR = 0.700, 95% CI: 0.564-0.869) all remained. There were no other delivery or neonatal outcomes affected by the lockdown after the COVID-19 outbreak.

CONCLUSION

This study indicated a significant increase in the risk of term PROM, significant decreases in the risk of PPH, fetal malformation and LGA, and a marked decline in the rate of admission to the NICU during Shanghai Lockdown.

The impact of lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility intentions

Lockdown edicts during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to concerns about consequences for childbirth plans and decisions. Robust empirical research to either refute or confirm these concerns, however, is lacking. To evaluate the causal impact of lockdowns on fertility, we exploited a large sample of Australians (aged 18-45) from a nationally representative household panel survey and leveraged variation from a unique natural experiment that occurred in Australia in 2020: a lockdown imposed in the state of Victoria, but not elsewhere in Australia. Difference-in-differences models were estimated comparing changes in fertility intentions of persons who resided in Victoria during lockdown, or within four weeks of the lockdown being lifted, and those living elsewhere in Australia. Results revealed a significantly larger decline in reported intentions of having another child among women who lived through the protracted lockdown. The average effect was small, with fertility intentions estimated to fall by between 2.8% and 4.3% of the pre-pandemic mean. This negative effect was, however, more pronounced among those aged over 35 years, the less educated, and those employed on fixed-term contracts. Impacts on men's fertility intentions were generally negligible, but with a notable exception being Indigenous Australians.

Fertility plans in the early times of the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of occupational and financial uncertainty in Italy

This study investigates the association between objective and subjective indicators of economic uncertainty, generated by the COVID-19 health and economic crisis, and young Italians' fertility plans during the 2020. We use unique repeated cross-sectional data, collected at different time points during the pandemic (March and October/November 2020) together with pre-COVID data (2016). The data offer a standard fertility intention question pre- and during-COVID, and also a direct question on whether pre-COVID fertility plans have been confirmed, postponed or abandoned. In March 2020, individuals with more vulnerable occupations show a lower probability of intending to have a(nother) child in the short-term and a higher probability of abandoning their pre-COVID fertility plan; in October 2020 changes in fertility plans do not vary by employment condition. Instead, both in March and October, those who suffered from a negative income shock and those with negative expectations on their future income and occupation are more likely to abandon their pre-pandemic fertility plan compared to their better off counterparts. Overall, economic uncertainty seems to have similarly affected men and women's fertility intentions. Our findings point to the fact that the unequal economic consequences of the pandemic also produced and will produce heterogeneous effects on fertility intentions.

Impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on birth rates in Europe: a time series analysis in 24 countries

STUDY QUESTION

Did the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic have an impact on monthly birth rates in Europe?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Using datasets on live births per month in Europe, collected from the Human Fertility Database, we found a -14.1% decline in live births in January 2021 (i.e. 9-10 months after the epidemic peaks and first lockdowns), compared to the average number of live births in January 2018 and 2019.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Previous pandemics in the 20th and 21st centuries have been associated with a decline in birth rates 9 months after their peak, and a rebound in births over time. Lockdowns were necessary to control the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and may have had an impact on subsequent birth rates.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

Monthly time series data on live births from January 2018 to March 2021 were extracted to provide a time-series analysis of birthrates during and after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in 24 European countries.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

We conducted a random-effect generalized least squares regression to assess the seasonality of births from January 2018 to March 2021, and to identify potential differences in monthly live births after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, considering the seasonality of births. To quantify these potential differences, we estimated the variation rate between the monthly live births observed during 2020 and 2021 and the mean of the 2018-2019 monthly live births in Europe. Factors potentially associated with a variation in monthly birth rates were assessed using univariable and multivariable generalized linear regressions.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

When considering the seasonality of births, January 2021 was the only month with a significant difference in live births. A drop of -14.1% was observed compared to the average number of live births in January 2018 and 2019. At the national level, this drop was observed 9-10 months after the epidemic peaks in 13 countries. The duration of lockdowns was the variable that had the stronger association with this decrease, whereas higher incomes per capita could be a factor limiting this decline. A rebound in births compared to the previous years occurred in March 2021 in 13 countries.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Our data are based on national data, limiting the power in the multivariable models used and the identification of other potential factors contributing to a decrease or an increase in birth rates. In addition, we collected only live births up to April 2021, which precludes the identification of a difference in births seasonality in 2021.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

As with previous pandemics, the COVID-19 outbreak was associated with a decline in births 9 months after its first wave. This trend may be associated with the duration of the lockdowns. Although there was a rebound in births in the following months, it does not seem to compensate for this decline.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

The authors receive no external funding and have no conflict of interest to declare.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Effects of pandemics uncertainty on fertility

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected various dimensions of the economies and societies. At this juncture, this paper examines the effects of pandemics-related uncertainty on fertility in the panel dataset of 126 countries from 1996 to 2019. For this purpose, the World Pandemics Uncertainty Indices are used to measure the pandemics-related uncertainty. The novel empirical evidence is that pandemics-related uncertainty decreases fertility rates. These results are robust to estimate different models and include various controls. We also try to explain why the rise in uncertainty during the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the fertility decline.

Research trends and hotspots of COVID-19 impact on sexual function: A bibliometric analysis based on Web of Science

Background

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has brought indelible harms to the world and aroused great concern worldwide. This paper aims to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on sexual function using bibliometrics, and summarize research hotspots in this field.

Methods

Relevant publications concerning the impact of COVID-19 on sexual function in the Web of Science collection database (WoSCC) between January 1, 2020 and March 12, 2022 were screened and analyzed by bibliometric analysis using the visualization software CiteSpace and VOSviewer.

Results

Of the 1,054 publications screened, the United States (US) contributed the most (398/37.8%), followed by the United Kingdom (UK) (119/11.3%). Among all institutions, the University of Toronto in Canada enjoyed the largest number of publications (30), and Johns Hopkins University in the US enjoyed the highest frequency of citation (235). The journal INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH published the largest number of studies in this field (31), and the most-cited journal was LANCET. "Chow, Eric," "Ong, Jason J," and "Stephenson, Rob" tied for first place in publications (8), and "Fish, Jessica N." enjoyed the highest number of citations (99). Burstness analysis of references and keywords showed that the developing research trends in this field mainly focused on "sexual transmission" and "angiotensin converting-enzyme 2 (ACE2)" during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Conclusion

The impact of COVID-19 on sexual function remains an urgent concern at present, and the management of sexual health during the pandemic needs to be further improved. More frequent and deeper cooperation between countries and institutions is required in future. Meanwhile, searching for more evidence on whether COVID-19 can achieve sexual transmission and the pathophysiological mechanisms underlying the impact of COVID-19 on sexual function remains a focus of research in the coming years.

Fertility intentions among young people in the era of China's three-child policy: a national survey of university students

Background

This study aimed to assess the fertility intentions of young people after the announcement of the three–child policy in China and to determine whether knowledge about reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health (RMNCH) services or support, childbearing- and childbirth-related anxiety, and parenthood–related anxiety influence fertility intentions.

Methods

A cross-sectional Internet-based survey was conducted on a nationwide sample of young people aged 18 to 28 years old in education institutions. Factors associated with fertility intentions were analysed using partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM).

Results

Only 4.2% of males and 1.7% of females intended to have three children or more. On the whole, the majority (40.3%) reported the intention to have two children. The mean and standard deviation (SD) for the total knowledge RMNCH support and/or services knowledge score was 9.5 (SD ± 8.9), out of a possible score of 39. The median and interquartile range (IQR) of childbearing– and childbirth-related anxiety score was 8.0 (IQR = 6.0–9.0), out of a possible score of 10. The median and IQR of parenthood–related anxiety score among the males was 6.0 (IQR = 4.0–9.0) and for females was 7.0 (IQR = 5.0–9.0). Results from PLS-SEM revealed that a higher level of knowledge of RMNCH support and/or services is significantly associated with higher fertility intentions. Both childbearing- and childbirth-related anxiety and parenthood–related anxiety were inversely associated with fertility intentions.

Conclusion

Raising awareness about RMNCH supportive measures and easing birth- and parenting anxiety are imperative to enhance birth rates. Future policies should pay more attention to these determinants to achieve their intended goal of boosting population growth.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12884-022-04873-y.

How different COVID-19 recovery paths affect human health, environmental sustainability, and food affordability: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic arrived at a time of faltering global poverty reduction and increasing levels of diet-related diseases, both of which have a strong link to poor outcomes for those with COVID-19. Governments responded to the pandemic by placing unprecedented restrictions on internal and external movements, which have resulted in an economic contraction. In response to the economic shock, G20 governments have committed to providing US$14 trillion stimuli to support economic recovery. We aimed to assess the impact of different COVID-19 recovery paths on human health, environmental sustainability, and food sustainability.

METHODS

We used LandSyMM, a global gridded land use change model, to analyse the impact of recovery paths from COVID-19. The paths were illustrated by four scenarios that represent different pandemic severities (including a single or recurrent pandemic) and alternate modes of recovery, including a transition of food demand towards healthier diets that result in changes to the food system: (1) solidarity and celery, (2) nothing new, (3) fries and fragmentation, and (4) best laid plans. For each scenario, we modelled the economic shocks of the pandemic and the impact of policy measures to promote healthier diets in the years after the COVID-19 pandemic, including the supply of and demand for food, environmental outcomes, and human health outcomes. The four scenarios use established future population growth and economic development projections derived from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2. We quantified the outcomes from more societally cooperative pandemic responses that result in reduced trade barriers and improved technological development against less cooperative responses.

FINDINGS

Repeated pandemic shocks (the fries and fragmentation and best laid plans scenarios) reduce the ability of the lowest income countries to ensure food security. A post-pandemic recovery that includes dietary transition towards the consumption of less meat and more fruits and vegetables (the solidarity and celery scenario) could prevent 2583 premature deaths per million in 2060, whereas recovery paths that are focused on economic recovery (the fries and fragmentation scenario) could trigger an additional 778 deaths per million in 2060. The transition of dietary preferences towards healthier diets (the solidarity and celery scenario) also reduces nitrogen fertiliser use by 40 million tonnes and irrigation water by 400 km³ compared with no dietary change in 2060 (the nothing new scenario). Finally, the scenario with dietary transition increases the affordability of the average diet.

INTERPRETATION

The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is most visible in low-income countries, where a reduction in growth projections makes a greater difference to the affordability of a basic diet. A change in dietary preferences is most impactful in reducing mortality and the burden of disease when income levels are high. At lower income, a transition towards lower meat consumption reduces undernourishment and diet-related mortality.

FUNDING

The Global Food Security's Resilience of the UK Food System Programme project, with support from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Natural Environment Research Council, and the Scottish Government.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of births in Pernambuco Brazil

This study aimed at analysing the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the time series and spatial patterns of live births in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil, from 2010 to 2021. This is an ecological study that applied intervention analysis in time series, with the goal to identify how projected data behaved in relation to observed data in the months December 2020 to November 2021, i.e. months representing conceptions from March2020 to April 2021. For the state of Pernambuco, a discrepancy up to +5.7% was found between the observed and projected data, while the respective difference for the São Francisco mesoregion showed the opposite trend with maximum discrepancy of -9%. The results did not indicate a clear change in the number of live births but supported the expected continuation of the downward trend of the previous years. Considering the importance of the number of live births in the context of demography, economy and public health, monitoring must be maintained to analyse the possible future impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on live birth projections.

Effect of COVID-19 Epidemic on Life Expectancy and Years of Life Lost in Iran: A Secondary Data Analysis

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a significant number of deaths in many countries around the world. This study provides an estimate of the effect of the COVID-19 epidemic on life expectancy and years of life lost (YLL) in Iran.

Methods

This study is a secondary data analysis carried out in 2020. Mortality data from COVID-19 were obtained from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education. Since the calculation of mortality rates requires the number of people at risk of death, this data was obtained from the Statistics Center of Iran and was used after a detailed evaluation. The effect of COVID-19 on mortality is evaluated using the techniques of a multi-decrement life table and the corresponding single-reduction life table. The YLL is calculated using the standard method provided by the World Health Organization.

Results

Analysis of mortality data showed that deaths due to COVID-19 could reduce life expectancy at birth by 1.4 years in 2020. Therefore, life expectancy at birth declined from 75.1 years to 73.7 years. Furthermore, the deaths due to COVID-19 from the outbreak to early February 2021 have caused about 800,000 years of YLL, which is almost as much as the YLL caused by cancers and tumors.

Conclusion

A decrease in life expectancy at birth by more than one year in countries with a life expectancy of over 70 years, such as Iran, can delay the increase in life expectancy for several years.

Change in childbearing intention, use of contraception, unwanted pregnancies, and related adverse events during the COVID-19 pandemic: Results from a panel study in rural Burkina Faso

Evidence on how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected women's reproductive health remains scarce, particularly for low- and middle-income countries. Deleterious indirect effects seem likely, particularly on access to contraception and risk of unwanted pregnancies, but rigorous evaluations using quasi-experimental designs are lacking. Taking a diachronic perspective, we aimed to investigate the effects of the pandemic on four indicators of women's reproductive health: history of recent adverse events during pregnancy (past), use of contraception and unwanted pregnancies (present), and childbearing intentions (future). This study was conducted in four rural health districts of Burkina Faso: Banfora, Leo, Sindou and Tenado. Two rounds of household surveys (before and during the pandemic) were conducted in a panel of 696 households using standardized questionnaires. The households were selected using a stratified two-stage random sampling method. All women aged 15-49 years living in the household were eligible for the study. The same households were visited twice, in February 2020 and February 2021. The effects were estimated by fitting hierarchical regression models with fixed effects or random intercepts at the individual level. A total of 814 and 597 women reported being sexually active before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, respectively. The odds of not wanting (any more) children were two times higher during the pandemic than before (2.0, 95% CI [1.32-3.04]). Among those with childbearing intention, the average desired delay until the next pregnancy increased from 28.7 to 32.8 months. When comparing 2021 versus 2020, there was an increase in the adjusted odds ratio of contraception use (1.23, 95% CI [1.08-1.40]), unwanted pregnancies (2.07, 95% CI [1.01-4.25]), and self-reported history of miscarriages, abortions, or stillbirths in the previous 12 months (2.4, 95% CI [1.04-5.43]). Our findings in rural Burkina Faso do not support the predicted detrimental effects of COVID-19 on the use of family planning services in LMICs, but confirm that it negatively affects pregnancy intentions. Use of contraception increased significantly among women in the panel, but arguably not enough to avoid an increase in unwanted pregnancies.

Socioeconomic Disparity in Birth Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic in New York City

Introduction: The differential impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic across race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status remains poorly understood. While recent explorations into birthrates during the pandemic have revealed significant declines, how birthrates may have differed between racial and socioeconomic subgroups during the pandemic remains to be detailed. Methods: Using electronic health records from a large hospital network in New York serving a racially and socioeconomically diverse population, we explored birthrates associated with conceptions that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown for demographic and obstetric differences. Results: Two thousand five hundred twenty-three unique patient deliveries corresponded with conceptions that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown in New York. Compared to the same period the previous year, there was a 22.85% decrease in births. Explorations into differences in birthrates by socioeconomic status revealed that much of the decline could be explained by fewer births among individuals living in higher socioeconomic status as opposed to individuals living in urban economic poverty [χ²(n = 5588) = 18.35, p < 0.01]. Conclusion: On March 22, 2020, New York instituted a prohibition of all nonessential social gatherings and the closure of all nonessential businesses. Although the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on reproductive health and outcomes remains largely unknown, the decreased birthrate associated with the initial COVID-19 wave in New York was not entirely unexpected. While the mechanisms that drive health disparities are complex and multifactorial, most of the decrease occurred among those living in higher socioeconomic status. This finding has important implications for understanding health behaviors and disparities among minorities living in low socioeconomic status.

Rapid rise in premature mortality due to anthropogenic air pollution in fast-growing tropical cities from 2005 to 2018

Tropical cities are experiencing rapid growth but lack routine air pollution monitoring to develop prescient air quality policies. Here, we conduct targeted sampling of recent (2000s to 2010s) observations of air pollutants from space-based instruments over 46 fast-growing tropical cities. We quantify significant annual increases in nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) (1 to 14%), ammonia (2 to 12%), and reactive volatile organic compounds (1 to 11%) in most cities, driven almost exclusively by emerging anthropogenic sources rather than traditional biomass burning. We estimate annual increases in urban population exposure to air pollutants of 1 to 18% for fine particles (PM_2.5) and 2 to 23% for NO₂ from 2005 to 2018 and attribute 180,000 (95% confidence interval: -230,000 to 590,000) additional premature deaths in 2018 (62% increase relative to 2005) to this increase in exposure. These cities are predicted to reach populations of up to 80 million people by 2100, so regulatory action targeting emerging anthropogenic sources is urgently needed.

Early impact of COVID-19 pandemic on childbearing plan in Bangladesh

The COVID-19 pandemic has already had many consequences for social life. This paper focused on the early impact of COVID-19 pandemic on pandemic-period childbearing plan that was made before the onset of the pandemic. Data were collected by posting survey questionnaire on social networks in Bangladesh. A total of 384 Bangladeshi men and women of reproductive age were analyzed using descriptive and multivariate logistic regression analyses after adjusting the data by applying sampling weights. One out of every five respondents was found to cancel their pandemic-period pregnancy plan by considering potential crises related to COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings showed that in canceling pandemic-period pregnancy, factors related to the potential crises of the pandemic emerged as more important than some persistent determinants of fertility, fertility intention and non-realization of fertility intention. Infection of COVID-19 to the acquaintance, being teenager, complete stopping and decline in income, and acquaintance's suggestion not to get pregnant during the pandemic played key role in canceling the pandemic-period pregnancy plan. Although it is uncertain if the impact of COVID-19 will substantially be reflected in the future fertility estimates of Bangladesh, the pandemic showed negative impact on pandemic-period childbearing plan during the early months.

Sustained Reductions in Online Search Interest for Communicable Eye and Other Conditions During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Infodemiology Study

Background

In a prior study at the start of the pandemic, we reported reduced numbers of Google searches for the term “conjunctivitis” in the United States in March and April 2020 compared with prior years. As one explanation, we conjectured that reduced information-seeking may have resulted from social distancing reducing contagious conjunctivitis cases. Here, after 1 year of continued implementation of social distancing, we asked if there have been persistent reductions in searches for “conjunctivitis,” and similarly for other communicable disease terms, compared to control terms.

Objective

The aim of this study was to determine if reduction in searches in the United States for terms related to conjunctivitis and other common communicable diseases occurred in the spring-winter season of the COVID-19 pandemic, and to compare this outcome to searches for terms representing noncommunicable conditions, COVID-19, and to seasonality.

Methods

Weekly relative search frequency volume data from Google Trends for 68 search terms in English for the United States were obtained for the weeks of March 2011 through February 2021. Terms were classified a priori as 16 terms related to COVID-19, 29 terms representing communicable conditions, and 23 terms representing control noncommunicable conditions. To reduce bias, all analyses were performed while masked to term names, classifications, and locations. To test for the significance of changes during the pandemic, we detrended and compared postpandemic values to those expected based on prepandemic trends, per season, computing one- and two-sided P values. We then compared these P values between term groups using Wilcoxon rank-sum and Fisher exact tests to assess if non-COVID-19 terms representing communicable diseases were more likely to show significant reductions in searches in 2020-2021 than terms not representing such diseases. We also assessed any relationship between a term’s seasonality and a reduced search trend for the term in 2020-2021 seasons. P values were subjected to false discovery rate correction prior to reporting. Data were then unmasked.

Results

Terms representing conjunctivitis and other communicable conditions showed a sustained reduced search trend in the first 4 seasons of the 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic compared to prior years. In comparison, the search for noncommunicable condition terms was significantly less reduced (Wilcoxon and Fisher exact tests, P<.001; summer, autumn, winter). A significant correlation was also found between reduced search for a term in 2020-2021 and seasonality of that term (Theil-Sen, P<.001; summer, autumn, winter). Searches for COVID-19–related conditions were significantly elevated compared to those in prior years, and searches for influenza-related terms were significantly lower than those for prior years in winter 2020-2021 (P<.001).

Conclusions

We demonstrate the low-cost and unbiased use of online search data to study how a wide range of conditions may be affected by large-scale interventions or events such as social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings support emerging clinical evidence implicating social distancing and the COVID-19 pandemic in the reduction of communicable disease and on ocular conditions.

Crime and punishment in times of pandemics

How should we think about crime deterrence in times of pandemics? The economic analysis of crime tells us that potential offenders will compare the costs and the benefits from crime and from innocence and then choose whichever option is more profitable. We must therefore ask ourselves how this comparison is affected by the outbreak of a pandemic and the policy changes which may accompany it, such as governmental restrictions, social distancing, and responses to economic crises. Using insights from law and economics, this paper investigates how the various components in the cost-benefit analysis of crime might change during a pandemic, focusing on Covid-19 as a test case. Building on classical theoretical models, existing empirical evidence, and behavioral aspects, the analysis reveals that there are many potentially countervailing effects on crime deterrence. The paper thus highlights the need to carefully consider which aspects are applicable given the circumstances of the pandemic, as whether crime deterrence will increase or decrease should depend on the strength of the effects at play.

'Scrambling to figure out what to do': a mixed method analysis of COVID-19's impact on sexual and reproductive health and rights in the United States

OBJECTIVE

A weak and politicised COVID-19 pandemic response in the United States (US) that failed to prioritise sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR) overlaid longstanding SRHR inequities. In this study we investigated how COVID-19 affected SRHR service provision in the US during the first 6 months of the pandemic.

METHODS

We used a multiphase, three-part, mixed method approach incorporating: (1) a comprehensive review of state-by-state emergency response policies that mapped state-level actions to protect or suspend SRHR services including abortion, (2) a survey of SRHR service providers (n=40) in a sample of 10 states that either protected or suspended services and (3) in-depth interviews (n=15) with SRHR service providers and advocacy organisations.

RESULTS

Twenty-one states designated some or all SRHR services as essential and therefore exempt from emergency restrictions. Protections, however, varied by state and were not always comprehensive. Fourteen states acted to suspend abortion. Five cross-cutting themes surrounding COVID-19's impact on SRHR services emerged across the survey and interviews: reductions in SRHR service provision; shifts in service utilisation; infrastructural impacts; the critical role of state and local governments; and exacerbation of SRHR inequities for certain groups.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates serious disruptions to the provision of SRHR care that exacerbated existing SRHR inequities. The presence or absence of policy protections for SRHR services had critical implications for providers and patients. Policymakers and service providers must prioritise and integrate SRHR into emergency preparedness planning and implementation, with earmarked funding and tailored service delivery for historically oppressed groups.

Major Trends in Population Growth Around the World

The world’s population continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace. The decelerating growth is mainly attributable to fertility declines in a growing number of countries. However, there are substantial variations in the future trends of populations across regions and countries, with sub-Saharan African countries being projected to have most of the increase. Population momentum plays an important role in determining the future population growth in many countries and areas where fertility is in a rapid transition. With declines in fertility, the world’s population is unprecedentedly aging, and the numbers of households with smaller sizes are growing. International migration is also on the rise since the beginning of this century. The world’s population is also urbanizing due to increased internal rural to urban migration. Nevertheless, there are uncertainties in future population growth, not only because there are uncertainties in the future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration, but also because there are many other factors that could affect these trajectories. International consensus on climate change and ecosystem protections may trigger population control policies, and the ongoing pandemic is likely to have some impact on mortality, migration, or even fertility.

Impact of COVID-19 on birth rate trends in the Italian Metropolitan Cities of Milan, Genoa and Turin

Objectives

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to major changes in the lives of people worldwide, including changes in personal and social habits. Faced with this global health emergency, governments have imposed strict mitigation measures. Within this context, and considering data from previous epidemics, it has been proposed that birth rates may have been negatively impacted. This study aimed to assess the trends in birth rates in three main industrial cities in Northern Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Study design

This was a retrospective and observational study.

Methods

Data on birth rates were collected and compared for the cities of Milan, Genoa and Turin from November 2019 to January 2020 (i.e. before the COVID-19 pandemic) and during the same period of the following year (i.e. during the COVID-19 pandemic).

Results

Birth rates in the cities of Milan, Genoa and Turin decreased by 55%, 12% and 33%, respectively.

Conclusions

The decrease in birth rates during the COVID-19 pandemic in these three industrialised cities is in line with the demographic effects of previous pandemics. The negative impact of COVID-19 on conception may be a result of various underlying factors. Further studies are required to verify how social and demographic factors may influence birth rates during pandemics.

Extrinsic and Existential Mortality Risk in Reproductive Decision-Making: Examining the Effects of COVID-19 Experience and Climate Change Beliefs

While the COVID-19 pandemic has presented an immediate risk to human life around the world, climate change poses an arguably greater-although less immediate-threat to our species' survival. Within the framework of life-history theory (LHT), this pre-registered study investigated whether extrinsic risk (i.e., external factors that pose a risk to an individual's life, e.g., COVID-19) and existential risk (i.e., risks with outcomes that threaten the existence of humans as a species, e.g., climate change) had similar or different relationships with reproductive decision-making. A UK representative sample of 325 participants between 18 and 35 years of age was asked to indicate their ideal number of children, ideal age to start having children, and whether their desire for a child had recently changed. Participants were asked about their experiences of COVID-19 and given a series of scales with which to assess their beliefs about climate change. In support of LHT, the study found evidence that knowing people who had been hospitalized with or died of COVID-19 was associated with a greater ideal number of children. Conversely, there was no clear evidence of a relationship between climate change beliefs and reproductive decision-making. The repercussions for understanding how we interpret and respond to different forms of mortality risk are discussed.