Sellers' Revisited: A Big Data Reassessment of Historical Outbreaks of Bluetongue and African Horse Sickness due to the Long-Distance Wind Dispersion of Culicoides Midges

Quantitative risk assessment for the introduction of bluetongue virus into mainland Europe by long-distance wind dispersal of Culicoides spp.: A case study from Sardinia

Europe faces regular introductions and reintroductions of bluetongue virus (BTV) serotypes, most recently exemplified by the incursion of serotype 3 in the Netherlands. Although the long-distance wind dispersal of the disease vector, Culicoides spp., is recognized as a virus introduction pathway, it remains understudied in risk assessments. A Quantitative Risk Assessment framework was developed to estimate the risk of BTV-3 incursion into mainland Europe from Sardinia, where the virus has been present since 2018. We used an atmospheric transport model (HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) to infer the probability of airborne dispersion of the insect vector. Epidemiological disease parameters quantified the virus prevalence in vector population in Sardinia and its potential first transmission after introduction in a new area. When assuming a 24h maximal flight duration, the risk of BTV introduction from Sardinia is limited to the Mediterranean Basin, mainly affecting the southwestern area of the Italian Peninsula, Sicily, Malta, and Corsica. The risk extends to the northern and central parts of Italy, Balearic archipelago, and mainland France and Spain, mostly when maximal flight duration is longer than 24h. Additional knowledge on vector flight conditions and Obsoletus complex-specific parameters could improve the robustness of the model. Providing both spatial and temporal insights into BTV introduction risks, our framework is a key tool to guide global surveillance and preparedness against epizootics.

Viral diversity and blood-feeding patterns of Afrotropical Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae)

Introduction

Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are vectors of arboviral pathogens that primarily affect livestock represented by Schmallenberg virus (SBV), epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) and bluetongue virus (BTV). In Kenya, studies examining the bionomic features of Culicoides including species diversity, blood-feeding habits, and association with viruses are limited.

Methods

Adult Culicoides were surveyed using CDC light traps in two semi-arid ecologies, Baringo and Kajiado counties, in Kenya. Blood-fed specimens were analysed through polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and sequencing of cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) barcoding region. Culicoides pools were screened for virus infection by generic RT-PCR and next-generation sequencing (NGS).

Results

Analysis of blood-fed specimens confirmed that midges had fed on cattle, goats, sheep, zebra, and birds. Cox1 barcoding of the sampled specimens revealed the presence of known vectors of BTV and epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) including species in the Imicola group (Culicoides imicola) and Schultzei group (C. enderleni, C. kingi, and C. chultzei). Culicoides leucostictus and a cryptic species distantly related to the Imicola group were also identified. Screening of generated pools (11,006 individuals assigned to 333 pools) by generic RT-PCR revealed presence of seven phylogenetically distinct viruses grouping in the genera Goukovirus, Pacuvirus and Orthobunyavirus. The viruses showed an overall minimum infection rate (MIR) of 7.0% (66/333, 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.5-8.9). In addition, full coding sequences of two new iflaviruses, tentatively named Oloisinyai_1 and Oloisinyai_2, were generated by next-generation sequencing (NGS) from individual homogenate of Culicoides pool.

Conclusion

The results indicate a high genetic diversity of viruses in Kenyan biting midges. Further insights into host-vector-virus interactions as well as investigations on the potential clinical significance of the detected viruses are warranted.

Culicoides-borne Orbivirus epidemiology in a changing climate

Orbiviruses are of significant importance to the health of wildlife and domestic animals worldwide; the major orbiviruses transmitted by multiple biting midge (Culicoides) species include bluetongue virus, epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus, and African horse sickness virus. The viruses, insect vectors, and hosts are anticipated to be impacted by global climate change, altering established Orbivirus epidemiology. Changes in global climate have the potential to alter the vector competence and extrinsic incubation period of certain biting midge species, affect local and long-distance dispersal dynamics, lead to range expansion in the geographic distribution of vector species, and increase transmission period duration (earlier spring onset and later fall transmission). If transmission intensity is associated with weather anomalies such as droughts and wind speeds, there may be changes in the number of outbreaks and periods between outbreaks for some regions. Warmer temperatures and changing climates may impact the viral genome by facilitating reassortment and through the emergence of novel viral mutations. As the climate changes, Orbivirus epidemiology will be inextricably altered as has been seen with recent outbreaks of bluetongue, epizootic hemorrhagic disease, and African horse sickness outside of endemic areas, and requires interdisciplinary teams and approaches to assess and mitigate future outbreak threats.

Computing Geographical Networks Generated by Air-Mass Movement

As air masses move within the troposphere, they transport a multitude of components including gases and particles such as pollen and microorganisms. These movements generate atmospheric highways that connect geographic areas at distant, local, and global scales that particles can ride depending on their aerodynamic properties and their reaction to environmental conditions. In this article we present an approach and an accompanying web application called tropolink for measuring the extent to which distant locations are potentially connected by air-mass movement. This approach is based on the computation of trajectories of air masses with the HYSPLIT atmospheric transport and dispersion model, and on the computation of connection frequencies, called connectivities, in the purpose of building trajectory-based geographical networks. It is illustrated for different spatial and temporal scales with three case studies related to plant epidemiology. The web application that we designed allows the user to easily perform intensive computation and mobilize massive archived gridded meteorological data to build weighted directed networks. The analysis of such networks allowed us for example, to describe the potential of invasion of a migratory pest beyond its actual distribution. Our approach could also be used to compute geographical networks generated by air-mass movement for diverse application domains, for example, to assess long-term risk of spread from persistent or recurrent sources of pollutants, including wildfire smoke.

A quantitative risk assessment for the incursion of lumpy skin disease virus into Australia via long-distance windborne dispersal of arthropod vectors

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an infectious disease of cattle and water buffalo caused by lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV). It is primarily transmitted mechanically by biting insects. LSDV has spread from Africa to the Middle-East, the Balkans, Caucasus, Russia, Kazakhstan, China, Asia and India, suggesting that a wide variety of arthropod vectors are capable of mechanical transmission. In 2022, LSD was detected in Indonesia, heightening awareness for Australia's livestock industries. To better understand the risk of LSDV incursion to Australia we undertook a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) looking at windborne dispersal of arthropod vectors, assuming a hypothetical situation where LSD is endemic in south-east Asia and Papua New Guinea. We estimated the risk of LSDV incursion to be low, with a median incursion rate of one incursion every 403 years, based on a model where several infectious insects (i.e. a 'small batch' of 3-5) must bite a single bovine to transmit infection. The incursion risk increases substantially to one incursion every 7-8 years if a bite from a single insect is sufficient for transmission. The risk becomes negligible (one incursion every 20,706 years) if bites from many insects (i.e. a 'large batch' of 30-50 insects) are necessary. Critically, several of our parameter estimates were highly uncertain during sensitivity analyses. Thus, a key outcome of this QRA was to better prioritise surveillance activities and to understand the key research gaps associated with LSDV in the Australasian context. The current literature shows that multiple vectors are required for successful bovine-to-vector transmission of LSDV, suggesting that our estimate of one outbreak every 403 years more accurately represents the risk to Australia; however, the role of single insects in transmission has not yet been evaluated. Similarly, attempts to transmit LSDV between bovines by Culicoides have not been successful, although midges were the highest risk vector category in our model due to the high vector-to-host ratio for midges compared to other vector categories. Our findings provide further insight into the risk of LSD to Australian cattle industries and identify the Tiwi Islands and areas east of Darwin as priority regions for LSDV surveillance, especially between December and March.

Modeling the Seasonal Variation of Windborne Transmission of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus between Swine Farms

Modeling the windborne transmission of aerosolized pathogens is challenging. We adapted an atmospheric dispersion model named the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to simulate the windborne dispersion of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv) between swine farms and incorporated the findings into an outbreak investigation. The risk was estimated semi-quantitatively based on the cumulative daily deposition of windborne particles and the distance to the closest emitting farm with an ongoing outbreak. Five years of data (2014:2018) were used to study the seasonal differences of the deposition thresholds of the airborne particles containing PRRSv and to evaluate the model in relation to risk prediction and barn air filtration. When the 14-day cumulative deposition was considered, in winter, above-threshold particle depositions would reach up to 30 km from emitting farms with 84% of them being within 10 km. Long-distance pathogen transmission was highest in winter and fall, lower in spring, and least in summer. The model successfully replicated the observed seasonality of PRRSv, where fall and winter posed a higher risk for outbreaks. Reaching the humidity and temperature thresholds tolerated by the virus in spring and summer reduced the survival and infectivity of aerosols beyond 10-20 km. Within the data limitations of voluntary participation, when wind was assumed to be the sole route of PRRSv transmission, the predictive performance of the model was fair with >0.64 AUC. Barn air filtration was associated with fewer outbreaks, particularly when exposed to high levels of viral particles. This study confirms the usefulness of the HYSPLIT model as a tool when determining seasonal effects and distances and informs the near real-time risk of windborne PRRSv transmission that can be useful in future outbreak investigations and for implementing timely control measures.

Adapting an Atmospheric Dispersion Model to Assess the Risk of Windborne Transmission of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus between Swine Farms

Modeling the windborne transmission of aerosolized pathogens is challenging. We adapted an atmospheric dispersion model (ADM) to simulate the windborne dispersion of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv) between swine farms. This work focuses on determining ADM applicable parameter values for PRRSv through a literature and expert opinion-based approach. The parameters included epidemiological features of PRRSv, characteristics of the aerosolized particles, and survival of aerosolized virus in relation to key meteorological features. A case study was undertaken to perform a sensitivity analysis on key parameters. Farms experiencing ongoing PRRSv outbreaks were assigned as particle emitting sources. The wind data from the North American Mesoscale Forecast System was used to simulate dispersion. The risk was estimated semi-quantitatively based on the median daily deposition of particles and the distance to the closest emitting farm. Among the parameters tested, the ADM was most sensitive to the number of particles emitted, followed by the model runtime, and the release height was the least sensitive. Farms within 25 km from an emitting farm were at the highest risk; with 53.66% being within 10 km. An ADM-based risk estimation of windborne transmission of PRRSv may inform optimum time intervals for air sampling, plan preventive measures, and aid in ruling out the windborne dispersion in outbreak investigations.

Species Identity, Life History, and Geographic Distance Influence Gut Bacterial Communities in Lab-Reared and European Field-Collected Culicoides Biting midges

Bacteria are part of the insect gut system and influence many physiological traits of their host. Gut bacteria may even reduce or block the transmission of arboviruses in several species of arthropod vectors. Culicoides biting midges are important arboviral vectors of several livestock and wildlife diseases, yet limited information is available on their gut bacterial communities. Addressing this gap will help inform how these communities can be manipulated and ultimately used as novel tools to control pathogens. To assess how bacterial communities change during the life stages of lab-reared C. nubeculosus and C. sonorensis, endosymbiotic bacteria were identified using Illumina sequencing of 16S rRNA and taxonomically characterised. Analyses were conducted to determine how gut bacterial communities in adults are influenced by species identity and geographic distance among biting midge populations. Communities of the two lab-reared Culicoides species significantly changed after pupation and with maturation into 6-day-old adults. Pseudomonas, Burkholderiaceae and Leucobacter bacteria were part of a core community that was trans-stadially transmitted and found throughout their life cycle. Among field-collected biting midges, the bacterial communities were unique for almost each species. Cardinium, Rickettsia and Wolbachia were some of the most abundant bacteria in midges collected from wetlands. Only Pseudomonas was present in high relative abundance in all field-collected species. In this study, species identity, as well as geographic distance, influenced the gut bacterial communities and may partly explain known inter- and intra-species variability in vector competence. Additionally, stably associated bacterial species could be candidates for paratransgenic strategies to control vector-borne pathogens.

A study of the composition of the Obsoletus complex and genetic diversity of Culicoides obsoletus populations in Spain

Background

The Culicoides obsoletus species complex (henceforth ‘Obsoletus complex’) is implicated in the transmission of several arboviruses that can cause severe disease in livestock, such as bluetongue, African horse sickness, epizootic hemorrhagic disease and Schmallenberg disease. Thus, this study aimed to increase our knowledge of the composition and genetic diversity of the Obsoletus complex by partial sequencing of the cytochrome c oxidase I (cox1) gene in poorly studied areas of Spain.

Methods

A study of C. obsoletus populations was carried out using a single-tube multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay that was designed to differentiate the Obsoletus complex sibling species Culicoides obsoletus and Culicoides scoticus, based on the partial amplification of the cox1 gene, as well as cox1 georeferenced sequences from Spain available at GenBank. We sampled 117 insects of the Obsoletus complex from six locations and used a total of 238 sequences of C. obsoletus (ss) individuals (sampled here, and from GenBank) from 14 sites in mainland Spain, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands for genetic diversity and phylogenetic analyses.

Results

We identified 90 C. obsoletus (ss), 19 Culicoides scoticus and five Culicoides montanus midges from the six collection sites sampled, and found that the genetic diversity of C. obsoletus (ss) were higher in mainland Spain than in the Canary Islands. The multiplex PCR had limitations in terms of specificity, and no cryptic species within the Obsoletus complex were identified.

Conclusions

Within the Obsoletus complex, C. obsoletus (ss) was the predominant species in the analyzed sites of mainland Spain. Information about the species composition of the Obsoletus complex could be of relevance for future epidemiological studies when specific aspects of the vector competence and capacity of each species have been identified. Our results indicate that the intraspecific divergence is higher in C. obsoletus (ss) northern populations, and demonstrate the isolation of C. obsoletus (ss) populations of the Canary Islands.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-021-04841-z.

An entry risk assessment of African horse sickness virus into the controlled area of South Africa through the legal movement of equids

South Africa is endemic for African horse sickness (AHS), an important health and trade-sensitive disease of equids. The country is zoned with movement control measures facilitating an AHS-free controlled area in the south-west. Our objective was to quantitatively establish the risk of entry of AHS virus into the AHS controlled area through the legal movement of horses. Outcomes were subcategorised to evaluate movement pathway, temporal, and spatial differences in risk. A 'no-control' scenario allowed for evaluation of the impact of control measures. Using 2019 movement and AHS case data, and country-wide census data, a stochastic model was developed establishing local municipality level entry risk of AHSV at monthly intervals. These were aggregated to annual probability of entry. Sensitivity analysis evaluated model variables on their impact on the conditional means of the probability of entry. The median monthly probability of entry of AHSV into the controlled area of South Africa ranged from 0.75% (June) to 5.73% (February), with the annual median probability of entry estimated at 20.21% (95% CI: 15.89%-28.89%). The annual risk of AHSV entry compared well with the annual probability of introduction of AHS into the controlled area, which is ~10% based on the last 20 years of outbreak data. Direct non-quarantine movements made up most movements and accounted for most of the risk of entry. Spatial analysis showed that, even though reported case totals were zero throughout 2019 in the Western Cape, horses originating from this province still pose a risk that should not be ignored. Control measures decrease risk by a factor of 2.8 on an annual basis. Not only do the outcomes of this study inform domestic control, they can also be used for scientifically justified trade decision making, since in-country movement control forms a key component of export protocols.

High dispersal capacity of Culicoides obsoletus (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), vector of bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses, revealed by landscape genetic analyses

BACKGROUND

In the last two decades, recurrent epizootics of bluetongue virus and Schmallenberg virus have been reported in the western Palearctic region. These viruses affect domestic cattle, sheep, goats and wild ruminants and are transmitted by native hematophagous midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). Culicoides dispersal is known to be stratified, i.e. due to a combination of dispersal processes occurring actively at short distances and passively or semi-actively at long distances, allowing individuals to jump hundreds of kilometers.

METHODS

Here, we aim to identify the environmental factors that promote or limit gene flow of Culicoides obsoletus, an abundant and widespread vector species in Europe, using an innovative framework integrating spatial, population genetics and statistical approaches. A total of 348 individuals were sampled in 46 sites in France and were genotyped using 13 newly designed microsatellite markers.

RESULTS

We found low genetic differentiation and a weak population structure for C. obsoletus across the country. Using three complementary inter-individual genetic distances, we did not detect any significant isolation by distance, but did detect significant anisotropic isolation by distance on a north-south axis. We employed a multiple regression on distance matrices approach to investigate the correlation between genetic and environmental distances. Among all the environmental factors that were tested, only cattle density seems to have an impact on C. obsoletus gene flow.

CONCLUSIONS

The high dispersal capacity of C. obsoletus over land found in the present study calls for a re-evaluation of the impact of Culicoides on virus dispersal, and highlights the urgent need to better integrate molecular, spatial and statistical information to guide vector-borne disease control.

An Introductory Framework for Choosing Spatiotemporal Analytical Tools in Population-Level Eco-Epidemiological Research

Spatiotemporal visualization and analytical tools (SATs) are increasingly being applied to risk-based surveillance/monitoring of adverse health events affecting humans, animals, and ecosystems. Different disciplines use diverse SATs to address similar research questions. The juxtaposition of these diverse techniques provides a list of options for researchers who are new to population-level spatial eco-epidemiology. Here, we are conducting a narrative review to provide an overview of the multiple available SATs, and introducing a framework for choosing among them when addressing common research questions across disciplines. The framework is comprised of three stages: (a) pre-hypothesis testing stage, in which hypotheses regarding the spatial dependence of events are generated; (b) primary hypothesis testing stage, in which the existence of spatial dependence and patterns are tested; and (c) secondary-hypothesis testing and spatial modeling stage, in which predictions and inferences were made based on the identified spatial dependences and associated covariates. In this step-wise process, six key research questions are formulated, and the answers to those questions should lead researchers to select one or more methods from four broad categories of SATs: (T1) visualization and descriptive analysis; (T2) spatial/spatiotemporal dependence and pattern recognition; (T3) spatial smoothing and interpolation; and (T4) geographic correlation studies (i.e., spatial modeling and regression). The SATs described here include both those used for decades and also other relatively new tools. Through this framework review, we intend to facilitate the choice among available SATs and promote their interdisciplinary use to support improving human, animal, and ecosystem health.

A model for the assessment of bluetongue virus serotype 1 persistence in Spain

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus of ruminants that has been circulating in Europe continuously for more than two decades and has become endemic in some countries such as Spain. Spain is ideal for BTV epidemiological studies since BTV outbreaks from different sources and serotypes have occurred continuously there since 2000; BTV-1 has been reported there from 2007 to 2017. Here we develop a model for BTV-1 endemic scenario to estimate the risk of an area becoming endemic, as well as to identify the most influential factors for BTV-1 persistence. We created abundance maps at 1-km2 spatial resolution for the main vectors in Spain, Culicoides imicola and Obsoletus and Pulicaris complexes, by combining environmental satellite data with occurrence models and a random forest machine learning algorithm. The endemic model included vector abundance and host-related variables (farm density). The three most relevant variables in the endemic model were the abundance of C. imicola and Obsoletus complex and density of goat farms (AUC 0.86); this model suggests that BTV-1 is more likely to become endemic in central and southwestern regions of Spain. It only requires host- and vector-related variables to identify areas at greater risk of becoming endemic for bluetongue. Our results highlight the importance of suitable Culicoides spp. prediction maps for bluetongue epidemiological studies and decision-making about control and eradication measures.

Endemic and Emerging Arboviruses in Domestic Ruminants in East Asia

Epizootic congenital abnormalities caused by Akabane, Aino, and Chuzan viruses have damaged the reproduction of domestic ruminants in East Asia for many years. In the past, large outbreaks of febrile illness related to bovine ephemeral fever and Ibaraki viruses severely affected the cattle industry in that region. In recent years, vaccines against these viruses have reduced the occurrence of diseases, although the viruses are still circulating and have occasionally caused sporadic and small-scaled epidemics. Over a long-term monitoring period, many arboviruses other than the above-mentioned viruses have been isolated from cattle and Culicoides biting midges in Japan. Several novel arboviruses that may infect ruminants (e.g., mosquito- and tick-borne arboviruses) were recently reported in mainland China based on extensive surveillance. It is noteworthy that some are suspected of being associated with cattle diseases. Malformed calves exposed to an intrauterine infection with orthobunyaviruses (e.g., Peaton and Shamonda viruses) have been observed. Epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus serotype 6 caused a sudden outbreak of hemorrhagic disease in cattle in Japan. Unfortunately, the pathogenicity of many other viruses in ruminants has been uncertain, although these viruses potentially affect livestock production. As global transportation grows, the risk of an accidental incursion of arboviruses is likely to increase in previously non-endemic areas. Global warming will also certainly affect the distribution and active period of vectors, and thus the range of virus spreads will expand to higher-latitude regions. To prevent anticipated damages to the livestock industry, the monitoring system for arboviral circulation and incursion should be strengthened; moreover, the sharing of information and preventive strategies will be essential in East Asia.

Rift Valley Fever: risk of persistence, spread and impact in Mayotte (France)

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne disease transmitted by different mosquito species, especially Aedes and Culex genus, to animals and humans. In November 2018, RVF re-emerged in Mayotte (France) after 11 years. Up to the end of October 2019, 126 outbreaks in animals and 143 human cases were reported. RVF mortality was 0.01%, and the number of abortions reported in polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive ruminants was fivefold greater than the previous 7 years. Milk loss production in 2019 compared to 2015-2018 was estimated to be 18%, corresponding to an economic loss of around €191,000 in all of Mayotte. The tropical climate in Mayotte provides conditions for the presence of mosquitoes during the whole year, and illegal introductions of animals represent a continuous risk of (re)introduction of RVF. The probability of RVF virus (RVFV) persisting in Mayotte for 5 or more years was estimated to be < 10% but could be much lower if vertical transmission in vectors does not occur. Persistence of RVF by vertical transmission in Mayotte and Réunion appears to be of minor relevance compared to other pathways of re-introduction (i.e. animal movement). However, there is a high uncertainty since there is limited information about the vertical transmission of some of the major species of vectors of RVFV in Mayotte and Réunion. The only identified pathways for the risk of spread of RVF from Mayotte to other countries were by infected vectors transported in airplanes or by wind currents. For the former, the risk of introduction of RVF to continental France was estimated to 4 × 10-6 epidemic per year (median value; 95% CI: 2 × 10-8; 0.0007), and 0.001 epidemic per year to Réunion (95% CI: 4 × 10-6; 0.16). For the latter pathway, mosquitoes dispersing on the wind from Mayotte between January and April 2019 could have reached the Comoros Islands, Madagascar, Mozambique and, possibly, Tanzania. However, these countries are already endemic for RVF, and an incursion of RVFV-infected mosquitoes would have negligible impact.

Origin of Bluetongue Virus Serotype 8 Outbreak in Cyprus, September 2016

In September 2016, clinical signs, indicative of bluetongue, were observed in sheep in Cyprus. Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) was detected in sheep, indicating the first incursion of this serotype into Cyprus. Following virus propagation, Nextera XT DNA libraries were sequenced on the MiSeq instrument. Full-genome sequences were obtained for five isolates CYP2016/01-05 and the percent of nucleotide sequence (% nt) identity between them ranged from 99.92% to 99.95%, which corresponded to a few (2-5) amino acid changes. Based on the complete coding sequence, the Israeli ISR2008/13 (98.42-98.45%) was recognised as the closest relative to CYP2016/01-05. However, the phylogenetic reconstruction of CYP2016/01-05 revealed that the possibility of reassortment in several segments: 4, 7, 9 and 10. Based on the available sequencing data, the incursion BTV-8 into Cyprus most likely occurred from the neighbouring countries (e.g., Israel, Lebanon, Syria, or Jordan), where multiple BTV serotypes were co-circulating rather than from Europe (e.g., France) where a single BTV-8 serotype was dominant. Supporting this hypothesis, atmospheric dispersion modelling identified wind-transport events during July-September that could have allowed the introduction of BTV-8 infected midges from Lebanon, Syria or Israel coastlines into the Larnaca region of Cyprus.

The possible route of introduction of bluetongue virus serotype 3 into Sicily by windborne transportation of infected Culicoides spp

In October 2017, the first outbreak of bluetongue virus serotype 3 (BTV-3) began in Italy, specifically in western Sicily. The route of entrance remains unclear, although since 2016 the same strain had been circulating only 150 km away, on the Tunisian peninsula of Cape Bon. The present analysis assessed the feasibility that wind could have carried BTV-3-infected Culicoides spp. from Tunisia to Sicily. An advection-deposition-survival (ADS) model was used to estimate when and where Culicoides spp. were likely to be introduced prior to the first BTV-3 report in Italy. Additionally, the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model was used to support ADS outputs. The modelling suggests that during September 2017, strong wind currents and suitable climatic conditions could have allowed the transportation of Culicoides spp. from BTV-3-infected areas in Tunisia into Sicily. ADS simulations suggest that particles could have reached the province of Trapani in western Sicily on 2 and 12 September. These simulations suggest the feasibility of aerial transportation of infected Culicoides spp. from Tunisia into Sicily. They demonstrate the suitability of the ADS model for retrospective studies of long-range transportation of insects across large water bodies, which may enhance the early detection of vectorial disease introduction in a region.