Framework for Estimating Indirect Costs in Animal Health Using Time Series Analysis

Why Foot-and-Mouth Disease-Free with Vaccination Should Be Equivalent to Foot-and-Mouth Disease-Free without Vaccination

Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) is still one of the most relevant animal diseases and remains of global concern. The World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) has specified two sanitary statuses that assure freedom from FMD: a country or zone can be free from FMD either with or without vaccination. To obtain either of the two statuses, absence of virus circulation must be shown. The standards set by WOAH are used for trade negotiations. During recent decades, different tools and approaches were developed to control FMD, including vaccines, diagnostics, and the Progressive Control Pathway for FMD. These tools improved over time, and nowadays high-quality, reliable vaccines and specific diagnostics are available to efficiently control and detect the infection, even in vaccinated populations. Due to these improvements, it is no longer justifiable to treat the two FMD-free statuses differently. The distinction between the statuses provides wrong incentives and tempts countries to take increased risks by stopping vaccination to improve their trade conditions, which can have potentially devastating consequences. The decision to stop vaccination should only be made on the basis of a careful and comprehensive analysis of the local and regional epidemiological situation. This paper presents the perspective that member countries and WOAH should recognize the two FMD-free statuses as equivalent.

A novel diagnostic approach to Paratuberculosis in dairy cattle using near-infrared spectroscopy and aquaphotomics

Introduction

As a contagious and chronic disease in the livestock industry, Paratuberculosis is a significant threat to dairy herds' genetic and economic resources. Due to intensive breeding and high production of dairy cattle, the incidence and prevalence are higher. Developing non-destructive diagnostic methods for the early detection and identification of healthy animals is paramount for breeding programs. Conventional methods are almost entirely destructive, have low accuracy, lack precision, and are time-consuming. Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and aquaphotomics can detect changes in biofluids and thus have the potential to diagnose disease. This study aimed to investigate the diagnostic ability of NIRS and aquaphotomics for Paratuberculosis in dairy cattle.

Methods

Blood plasma from dairy cattle was collected in the NIR range (1,300 nm to 1,600 nm) 60 days before and 100 days to 200 days after calving in two groups, positive and negative, using the same consecutive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay test results three times as a reference test.

Results

NIRS and aquaphotomics methods invite 100% accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity to detect Paratuberculosis using data mining by unsupervised method, Principal Component Analysis, and supervised methods: Soft Independent Modeling of Class Analogiest, Linear Discriminant Analysis, Quadratic Discriminant Analysis, Partial Least Square-Discriminant Analysis, and Support Vector Machine models.

Discussion

The current study found that monitoring blood plasma with NIR spectra provides an opportunity to analyze antibody levels indirectly via changes in water spectral patterns caused by complex physiological changes, such as the amount of antibodies related to Paratuberculosis by aquagram.

The Reasons Behind Long-Term Endemicity of Brucellosis in Low and Middle-Income Countries: Challenges and Future Perspectives

Brucellosis is a neglected worldwide zoonotic disease with more than 500,000 new human cases each year. Direct contact with infected animals and consumption of undercooked animal origin foods are the main routes of brucellosis transmission to humans. Although long endeavor has been applied to control and eliminate brucellosis from animal and human populations in developing countries especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), the disease is still endemic in these regions. Many common or unique factors including raw milk consumption, unhygienic slaughter of livestock, extensive husbandry, budgetary limitations, misdiagnosis, and other conditions play a role in long-term endemicity of brucellosis in these locations. It has been shown that One Health is the only practical approach to control brucellosis; however, applying such methods is challenging in low-resource areas. In such conditions, brucellosis is continuously maintained in animals and repeatedly spread to human populations. In this article, factors playing a critical role in brucellosis endemicity, and the real conditions challenging the application of One Health approach in control of brucellosis are highlighted.

Cache Valley virus: an emerging arbovirus of public and veterinary health importance

Cache Valley virus (CVV) is a mosquito-borne virus in the genus Orthobunyavirus (Bunyavirales: Peribunyaviridae) that has been identified as a teratogen in ruminants causing fetal death and severe malformations during epizootics in the U.S. CVV has recently emerged as a viral pathogen causing severe disease in humans. Despite its emergence as a public health and agricultural concern, CVV has yet to be significantly studied by the scientific community. Limited information exists on CVV's geographic distribution, ecological cycle, seroprevalence in humans and animals, and spectrum of disease, including its potential as a human teratogen. Here, we present what is known of CVV's virology, ecology, and clinical disease in ruminants and humans. We discuss the current diagnostic techniques available and highlight gaps in our current knowledge and considerations for future research.

The hidden carbon impact of animal disease

Livestock production is under scrutiny for its impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Animal disease outbreaks will have economic effects on producers and the indirect cost of an animal disease outbreak is the result of shifts in consumption across commodities. This shift in demand for meat products will also positively or negatively affect carbon emissions. We explore the indirect costs and subsequent carbon impact of four potential exotic disease outbreaks, namely African swine fever, sheep pox, bluetongue, and foot and mouth disease. The indirect costs are quantified under different severities of outbreak using a vector error correction model and by estimating the changes in revenues of livestock and feed markets. By associating subsequent consumption switches with emission factors, we quantify the hidden carbon impact of these livestock disease outbreaks. The indirect costs vary based on severity and type of disease outbreak. Similarly, the net reduction in supply and subsequent consumption impacts result in averting between 0.005 and 0.67 million tonnes of CO2 eq. for these sectors. A foot and mouth disease outbreak has the highest indirect costs and largest reduction in GHG emissions as it decreases the production of cattle as consumers switch to lower emitting meat commodities. Conversely, African swine fever has the smallest reduction in GHG emissions, reflecting the more industrialised nature of pig farming. Our modelling approach opens a provocative debate around how compensation to producers supports restocking and how this relates to commitments to net zero farming. Overall, an exotic disease outbreak may trigger an opportunity to switch to lower emitting breeds or species if a more holistic, joined up approach were taken by Government.

Approaches for disease prioritization and decision-making in animal health, 2000-2021: a structured scoping review

This scoping review identifies and describes the methods used to prioritize diseases for resource allocation across disease control, surveillance, and research and the methods used generally in decision-making on animal health policy. Three electronic databases (Medline/PubMed, Embase, and CAB Abstracts) were searched for articles from 2000 to 2021. Searches identified 6, 395 articles after de-duplication, with an additional 64 articles added manually. A total of 6, 460 articles were imported to online document review management software (sysrev.com) for screening. Based on inclusion and exclusion criteria, 532 articles passed the first screening, and after a second round of screening, 336 articles were recommended for full review. A total of 40 articles were removed after data extraction. Another 11 articles were added, having been obtained from cross-citations of already identified articles, providing a total of 307 articles to be considered in the scoping review. The results show that the main methods used for disease prioritization were based on economic analysis, multi-criteria evaluation, risk assessment, simple ranking, spatial risk mapping, and simulation modeling. Disease prioritization was performed to aid in decision-making related to various categories: (1) disease control, prevention, or eradication strategies, (2) general organizational strategy, (3) identification of high-risk areas or populations, (4) assessment of risk of disease introduction or occurrence, (5) disease surveillance, and (6) research priority setting. Of the articles included in data extraction, 50.5% had a national focus, 12.3% were local, 11.9% were regional, 6.5% were sub-national, and 3.9% were global. In 15.2% of the articles, the geographic focus was not specified. The scoping review revealed the lack of comprehensive, integrated, and mutually compatible approaches to disease prioritization and decision support tools for animal health. We recommend that future studies should focus on creating comprehensive and harmonized frameworks describing methods for disease prioritization and decision-making tools in animal health.

Investing in health to improve the sustainability of cattle production in the United Kingdom: A narrative review

Livestock health is a key concern for all food system stakeholders and has considerable impacts upon sustainable food production. Improving productivity means that a set quantity of milk or meat may be produced at a lower economic cost, using fewer resources and with reduced greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe); however, diseases that reduce yield, growth or fertility have the opposite effect. The purpose of this narrative review was to assess the breadth of economic and environmental sustainability information relating to cattle health within the literature and to discuss related knowledge gaps within the literature. The mechanisms by which improved awareness and investment can lead to improved cattle health both on-farm and across the wider cattle industry are also appraised; concluding with the opportunities and challenges still outstanding in improving sustainability through livestock health. The economic and environmental impacts of cattle health have not been sufficiently quantified in the literature to draw valid conclusions regarding the sustainability impact of different diseases. Where available, economic data tended to be dated or extremely variable. Furthermore, environmental analyses did not use consistent methodologies and principally focused on GHGe, with little attention paid to other metrics. Although reducing disease severity or occurrence reduced GHGe, published impacts of disease varied from 1% to 40% with little apparent association between GHGe and industry-wide economic cost. An urgent need therefore exists to standardise methodologies and quantify disease impacts using a common baseline with up-to-date data inputs. Given the threat of antimicrobial resistance, improving cattle health through technology adoption and vaccine use would be expected to have positive impacts on social acceptability, especially if these improvements rendered milk and meat more affordable to the consumer. Therefore, it is important for cattle producers and allied industry to take a proactive approach to improving cattle health and welfare, with particular focus on diseases that have the greatest implications for sustainability.

FMD vaccine allocation and surveillance resourcing options for a potential Australian incursion

Australian Animal Disease Spread (AADIS) epidemiological simulation modelling of potential foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in the state of Victoria, Australia examined the targeted use of limited vaccine supplies in combination with varying surveillance resources. Updated, detailed estimates of government response costs were prepared based on state level data inputs of required and available resources. Measures of outbreak spread such as duration and numbers of animals removed through depopulation of infected and vaccinated herds from the epidemiological modelling were compared to summed government response costs. This comparison illustrated the trade-offs between targeted control strategies combining vaccination-to-remove and varying surveillance capacities and their corresponding costs. For this intensive cattle and sheep producing region: (1) Targeting vaccination toward intensive production areas or toward specialized cattle operations had outbreak control and response cost advantages similar to vaccination of all species. The median duration was reduced by 27% and response costs by 11%. (2) Adding to the pool of outbreak surveillance resources available further decreased outbreak duration and outbreak response costs. The median duration was reduced by an additional 13% and response costs declined by an additional 8%. (3) Pooling of vaccine resources overcame the very early binding constraints under proportional allocation of vaccines to individual states with similar reductions in outbreak duration to those with additional surveillance resources. However, government costs rose substantially by over 40% and introduced additional risk of a negative consumer response. Increased knowledge of the outbreak situation obtained from more surveillance led to better-informed vaccination deployment decisions in the short timeframe they needed to be made.

From Farm to Fork: Streptococcus suis as a Model for the Development of Novel Phage-Based Biocontrol Agents

Bacterial infections of livestock threaten the sustainability of agriculture and public health through production losses and contamination of food products. While prophylactic and therapeutic application of antibiotics has been successful in managing such infections, the evolution and spread of antibiotic-resistant strains along the food chain and in the environment necessitates the development of alternative or adjunct preventive and/or therapeutic strategies. Additionally, the growing consumer preference for “greener” antibiotic-free food products has reinforced the need for novel and safer approaches to controlling bacterial infections. The use of bacteriophages (phages), which can target and kill bacteria, are increasingly considered as a suitable measure to reduce bacterial infections and contamination in the food industry. This review primarily elaborates on the recent veterinary applications of phages and discusses their merits and limitations. Furthermore, using Streptococcus suis as a model, we describe the prevalence of prophages and the anti-viral defence arsenal in the genome of the pathogen as a means to define the genetic building blocks that are available for the (synthetic) development of phage-based treatments. The data and approach described herein may provide a framework for the development of therapeutics against an array of bacterial pathogens.

A methodology to assess indirect economic impacts of animal disease outbreaks: A case of hypothetical African swine fever outbreak in Switzerland

Indirect costs of animal disease outbreaks often significantly exceed the direct costs. Despite their importance, indirect costs remain poorly characterized due to their complexity. In this study, we developed a framework to assess the indirect costs of a hypothetical African swine fever outbreak in Switzerland. We collected data through international and national stakeholder interviews, analysis of national disease control regulations and industry data. We developed a framework to capture the resulting qualitative and quantitative data, categorize the impacts of these regulations, and rank the impacts in order of importance. We then developed a spreadsheet model to calculate the indirect costs of one category of control measure for an individual group of stakeholders. We developed a decision tree model to guide the most economically favourable implementation plan for a given control measure category, under different outbreak scenarios. Our results suggest that the most important measure/impact categories were 'Transport logistics', 'Consumer demand', 'Prevention of wild boar and domestic pig contact' and 'Slaughter logistics'. In our hypothetical scenario, the greatest costs associated with 'Prevention of wild boar and domestic pig contact' were due to assumed partial or total depopulation of fattening pig farms in order to reduce herd size to comply with the simulated control regulations. The model also provides suggestions on the most economically favourable strategy to reduce contact between wild boar and domestic pigs in control areas. Our approach provides a new framework to integrate qualitative and quantitative data to guide disease control strategy. This method could be useful in other countries and for other diseases, including in data- and resource-poor settings, or areas with limited experience of animal disease outbreaks.

Antimicrobial Peptides: Bringing Solution to the Rising Threats of Antimicrobial Resistance in Livestock

Antimicrobial therapy is the most applied method for treating and preventing bacterial infection in livestock. However, it becomes less effective due to the development of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Therefore, there is an urgent need to find new antimicrobials to reduce the rising rate of AMR. Recently, antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) have been receiving increasing attention due to their broad-spectrum antimicrobial activity, rapid killing activities, less toxicity, and cell selectivity. These features make them potent and potential alternative antimicrobials to be used in animals. Here, we discuss and summarize the AMPs in animals, classification, structures, mechanisms of action, and their potential use as novel therapeutic alternative antimicrobials to tackle the growing AMR threat.

Financial impact of sheeppox and goatpox and estimated profitability of vaccination for subsistence farmers in selected northern states of Nigeria

Sheeppox and goatpox (SGP) are important transboundary diseases, endemic in Nigeria, causing severe clinical manifestations, impacting production, and resulting in economic losses. Vaccination is an effective control measure against SGP in endemic countries but is not currently implemented in Nigeria. This study aimed to estimate SGP financial impact and assess economic viability of SGP vaccination at the herd and regional level under different scenarios in Northern Nigeria. Integrated stochastic production and economic herd models were developed for transhumance and sedentary herds. Models were run for two disease scenarios (severely and slightly affected) and with and without vaccination, with data parameterisation from literature estimates, field survey and authors' experience. Herd-level net financial impact of the disease and its vaccination was assessed using gross margin (GM) and partial budget analyses. These were then used to assess regional financial impact of disease and profitability of a 3-year vaccination programme using a cost-benefit analysis. The regional-analysis was performed under 0 %, 50 % and 100 % government subsidy scenarios; as a standalone programme or in combination with other existing vaccination programmes; and for risk-based and non-risk-based intervention. Median SGP losses per reproductive female were £27 (90 % CI: £31-£22), and £5 (90 % CI: £7-£3), in sedentary, and £30 (90 % CI: £41-21), and £7 (90 % CI: £10-£3), in transhumance herds, for severely and slightly affected scenarios respectively. Selling animals at a reduced price, selling fewer young animals, and reduced value of affected animals remaining in the herd were the greatest contributors to farmer's SGP costs. SGP-affected herds realised a GM reduction of up to 121 % in sedentary and 138 % in transhumance. Median estimated regional SGP cost exceeded £24 million. Herd-level median benefits of vaccination per reproductive female were £23.76 (90 % CI: £19.28-£28.61), and £4.01 (90 % CI: £2.36-£6.31), in sedentary, and £26.85 (90 % CI: £17.99-£37.02) and £7.45 (90 % CI: £3.47-£15.14) in transhumance herds, in severely and slightly affected scenarios, respectively. Median benefit: cost ratio (BCR) for severely affected herds at 50% subsidies was 6.62 (90% CI: 5.30-8.90) for sedentary, and 5.14 (90% CI: 3.31-13.81) for transhumance herds. The regional SGP vaccination standalone programme BCR: 7-27, regional SGP vaccination with existing vaccination programme BCR: 7-228 and vaccinating high-risk areas BCR: 19-439 were found to be economically viable for all subsidy levels explored. Vaccinating low-risk areas only realised benefits with 100 % of government subsidies. This study further increases understanding of SGP's impact within Northern Nigeria and demonstrates vaccination is an economically viable control strategy at the herd-level and also regionally, depending on the strategy and government subsidy levels considered.

Effect of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Vaccine on Pregnancy Failure in Beef Cows

This study evaluates whether the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) vaccination increases pregnancy failures in Bos taurus beef cows. A total of 3,379 cows were assigned to two experimental groups to receive (n = 1,722) or not receive (n = 1,657) a FMD vaccine (commercial preparation containing FMD virus, O1 Campos and A24 Cruzeiro) at different gestational age. Pregnancy diagnosis was performed by ultrasonography at vaccination time (Day 0), and the cows were classified by days of pregnancy as follows: (a) <29 days after mating (presumed pregnant cows, n = 778), (b) between 30 and 44 days of pregnancy (n = 1,100), (c) 45 and 59 days of pregnancy (n = 553), and (d) between 60 and 90 days of pregnancy (n = 948). Pregnancy failure was determined 30 days after vaccination by a second ultrasound examination. Cows that were vaccinated within 29 days after mating had a 7.8% greater pregnancy failure rate than non-vaccinated cows (44.1%, 163/370 vs. 36.3%, 148/408, respectively; P <0.05). Cows vaccinated between 30 and 44 days of gestation had a pregnancy failure rate greater than non-vaccinated cows (4.9%, 28/576 vs. 2.5%, 13/524, respectively; P <0.05). When cows received the vaccine between days 45 and 90 of gestation no differences in pregnancy failure were observed (0.8%, 6/776 vs. 1.2%, 9/725, respectively; P = NS). Body temperature and local adverse reactions to vaccine inoculation were recorded in a subset of 152 multiparous cows. Hyperthermia (>39.5°C) was detected on Day 1 or 2 in 28.0% (21/75) of vaccinated vs. 7.8% (6/77) of non-vaccinated cows (P <0.01). Local adverse reaction to the FMD vaccine inoculation increased from 0.0% (0/75) on Day 0, to 15.7% (11/75) on Day 4, and 38.7% (29/75) on Day 10 (P <0.01). On Day 30 local reaction was detected in 10.5% (34/323) and fell to 2.2% on Day 60 (7/323) post vaccination (P <0.01). In conclusion, FMD vaccine increases pregnancy failure when it is administered before 45 days of gestation, an effect that was associated with hyperthermia and local adverse reaction. No effect on pregnancy failure was found when vaccination was performed after 45 days of gestation.

Systematic Review of the Interaction between Nutrition and Immunity in Livestock: Effect of Dietary Supplementation with Synthetic Amino Acids

Infectious diseases represent one of the most critical threats to animal production worldwide. Due to the rise of pathogen resistance and consumer concern about chemical-free and environmentally friendly productions, the use of antimicrobials drugs is no longer desirable. The close relationship between nutrition and infection has led to numerous studies about livestock. The impact of feeding strategies, including synthetic amino acid supplementation, on host response to various infections has been investigated in different livestock animals. This systematic review provides a synthesis of the experimental studies on the interactions between synthetic amino acid supplementation and immune response to infectious diseases in livestock. Following PRISMA guidelines, quantitative research was conducted using two literature databases, PubMed and Web of Science. The eligibility criteria for the research articles were: (1) the host is a livestock animal; (2) the supplementation with at least one synthetic amino acid; (3) at least one mediator of immunity is measured; (4) at least one production trait is measured. Data were extracted from 58 selected studies. Articles on poultry were the most numerous; few contained experiments using ruminants and pigs. Most of the authors hypothesized that synthetic amino acid supplementation would particularly improve the animals' immune response against intracellular pathogens. An increase in T and natural killer lymphocytes and macrophages activation, intracellular redox state, lymphocytes proliferation and antibodies production were the most described immune mechanisms associated with synthetic amino acid supplementation. Most of the selected studies focused on three amino acids (methionine, threonine and arginine), all of which are associated with a significant improvement of the host immune response. The use of synthetic amino acid supplementation appears as an encouraging perspective for livestock infectious disease management, and research must concentrate on more analytical studies using these three amino acids.

Immediate impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on bean value chain in selected countries in sub-Saharan Africa

Africa's agriculture and food systems were already grappling with challenges such as climate change and weather variability, pests and disease, and regional conflicts. With rising new cases of COVID 19 propelling various African governments to enforce strict restrictions of varying degrees to curb the spread. Thus, the pandemic posed unprecedented shocks on agriculture and food supply chains in Sub Saharan Africa. In this study, we use survey data collected from nine countries in Central, Eastern, and Southern, Africa to understand the immediate impact of COVID-19 on production, distribution, and consumption of common beans, and possible food security implications. Descriptive analysis of data collected from bean farmers, aggregators, processors, bean regional coordinators, and mechanization dealers reveal that COVID-19 and government restrictions had impacted the availability and cost of farm inputs and labour, distribution, and consumption of beans in Eastern and Southern Africa. The immediate impacts were dire in Southern Africa with Central Africa slightly impacted. The production and distribution challenges negatively impacted on frequency and patterns of food consumption in households in Africa. Thus, the pandemic poses a greater risk to food security and poverty in the region. Governments could play a significant role in supporting the needs of smallholder farmers, traders and other actors through provision of subsidized agricultural inputs.

Impacts of African Swine Fever on Pigmeat Markets in Europe

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a highly contagious animal disease which can cause disruptions in the international trade of pigs and products derived from pigs. During 2014-2019 ASF was introduced into several member states in the European Union (EU), including the Baltic states and Poland (2014), Czech Republic and Romania (2017), Belgium, Bulgaria and Hungary (2018), and Slovakia (2019). The objective of this study was to analyze how the ASF epidemic has contributed to the production, export, and prices of pigmeat and to the national pig inventory (number of pigs) in 11 EU member states. The data included country-level statistics on the pig markets and ASF outbreaks observed during 2010-2019. The data were first analyzed descriptively. Following this, a system of four equations was specified and estimated by using seemingly unrelated regression method. The results indicated that the consequences of ASF to the pigmeat markets are complex and may differ by country. They suggest that an ASF outbreak can reduce the production of pigmeat, export quantities and the national pig inventory in the short and medium term. On average, those new cases of ASF reduced the exports of pigmeat by close to 15% and the production quantity by more than 4% in the year after the cases had occurred, and the national pig inventory by 3-4% both in the current and the next year. However, only indirect effects on pigmeat prices were observed.

Modeling Economic Effects of Vaccination Against Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome: Impact of Vaccination Effectiveness, Vaccine Price, and Vaccination Coverage

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) causes substantial financial losses in pig farms and economic losses to societies worldwide. Vaccination against PRRS virus (PRRSV) is a common intervention in affected farms. The aim of this study was to assess the economic impact and profitability of potential new PRRS vaccines with improved efficacy at animal, herd, and national level. Two vaccination strategies were modeled; (i) mass vaccination of sows only (MS) and (ii) mass vaccination of sows and vaccination of piglets (MSP), comprising different scenarios of vaccine effectiveness, vaccine price, and vaccination coverage. A farrow-to-finish farm with 1,000 working sows from a pig-dense region in Germany served as an example farm. Financial benefits were obtained from gross margin analyses and were defined as difference in gross margin between a PRRSV-infected farm without vaccination (baseline) and with vaccination (intervention). Financial benefits were highest if both sows and piglets (MSP) were vaccinated. In these scenarios, median annual net benefits per working sow ranged from €170 to 340. If sows only were vaccinated (MS), estimated benefits attributable to vaccination were between €148 and 270. Decisive variables for the estimation of national level benefits were the number of farmers switching from existing to a better protecting vaccine, the number of previously non-vaccinating herds adopting the new vaccine, and the effectiveness of the new vaccine relative to those already available. Benefits were greatest when the new vaccine was adopted by previously non-vaccinating herds. The analyses showed that vaccination against PRRS was beneficial for all modeled scenarios. The magnitude of benefits derived from vaccination was more susceptible to changes in vaccination effectiveness than to vaccine price changes. This study provides evidence to support future vaccine development. The estimates indicate that the introduction of more efficient vaccines might lead to substantial financial benefits, is of socio-economic importance and that new vaccines might significantly contribute to the reduction of disease burden.

Infectious Diseases and Meat Production

Most infectious diseases in humans originate from animals. In this paper, we explore the role of animal farming and meat consumption in the emergence and amplification of infectious diseases. First, we discuss how meat production increases epidemic risks, either directly through increased contact with wild and farmed animals or indirectly through its impact on the environment (e.g., biodiversity loss, water use, climate change). Traditional food systems such as bushmeat and backyard farming increase the risks of disease transmission from wild animals, while intensive farming amplifies the impact of the disease due to the high density, genetic proximity, increased immunodeficiency, and live transport of farmed animals. Second, we describe the various direct and indirect costs of animal-based infectious diseases, and in particular, how these diseases can negatively impact the economy and the environment. Last, we discuss policies to reduce the social costs of infectious diseases. While existing regulatory frameworks such as the "One Health" approach focus on increasing farms' biosecurity and emergency preparedness, we emphasize the need to better align stakeholders' incentives and to reduce meat consumption. We discuss in particular the implementation of a "zoonotic" Pigouvian tax, and innovations such as insect-based food or cultured meat.

EPIC, Scottish Government's Centre of Expertise in Animal Disease Outbreaks: A Model for Provision of Risk-Based Evidence to Policy

EPIC, Scottish Government's Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks, offers a successful and innovative model for provision of scientific advice and analysis to policy-makers in Scotland. In this paper, we describe EPIC's remit and operations, and reflect on three case studies which illustrate how the Centre of Expertise Model provides risk-based evidence through rapid access to emergency advice and analyses, estimating disease risks and improving disease detection, assessing different disease control options, and improving future risk resilience. The successes and challenges faced by EPIC and its members offer useful lessons for animal health researchers and authorities, working in contingency planning for animal health security in other countries.

The Carrier Conundrum; A Review of Recent Advances and Persistent Gaps Regarding the Carrier State of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus

The existence of a prolonged, subclinical phase of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) infection in cattle was first recognized in the 1950s. Since then, the FMDV carrier state has been a subject of controversy amongst scientists and policymakers. A fundamental conundrum remains in the discordance between the detection of infectious FMDV in carriers and the apparent lack of contagiousness to in-contact animals. Although substantial progress has been made in elucidating the causal mechanisms of persistent FMDV infection, there are still critical knowledge gaps that need to be addressed in order to elucidate, predict, prevent, and model the risks associated with the carrier state. This is further complicated by the occurrence of a distinct form of neoteric subclinical infection, which is indistinguishable from the carrier state in field scenarios, but may have substantially different epidemiological properties. This review summarizes the current state of knowledge of the FMDV carrier state and identifies specific areas of research in need of further attention. Findings from experimental investigations of FMDV pathogenesis are discussed in relation to experience gained from field studies of foot-and-mouth disease.