Model-Based Evaluation of Strategies to Control Brucellosis in China

Prediction and control for the transmission of brucellosis in inner Mongolia, China

Brucellosis, a zoonotic infectious disease caused by the Brucella genus, remains a significant global public health concern, with Inner Mongolia, China, being a notable hotspot affecting both human health and livestock. In response to this, we developed a dynamic SEIVWShIahIch model to simulate the transmission of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia. We calculated the basic reproduction number (R0 = 2.86), indicating a severe epidemic trend with cases expected to increase over the coming decades. The model was fitted to human brucellosis data, and key transmission parameters were estimated to predict future trends. We also evaluated the impact of various control measures, including vaccination, disinfection, culling, and health education. While these measures positively influence disease control, they cannot completely eliminate brucellosis, suggesting that a single control strategy is insufficient. Combining vaccination and culling proved more effective, with identified threshold values for R0 and to keep R0 < 1. Our findings indicate that a comprehensive strategy integrating vaccination, culling, disinfection, and health education is essential for effectively curbing brucellosis in Inner Mongolia, providing a strong foundation for optimizing future prevention and control strategies.

Sensitivity analysis and dynamics of brucellosis infection disease in cattle with control incident rate by using fractional derivative

The farming of animals is one of the largest industries, with animal food products, milk, and dairy being crucial components of the global economy. However, zoonotic bacterial diseases, including brucellosis, pose significant risks to human health. The goal of this research is to develop a mathematical model to understand the spread of brucellosis in cattle populations, utilizing the Caputo-Fabrizio operator to control the disease's incidence rate. The existence and uniqueness of the model's solution are ensured through the Lipschitz conditions, the contraction mapping theorem, and the application of the kernel properties of the Caputo-Fabrizio operator. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the impact of various factors on the disease's progression. This study performs a realistic stability analysis of both global and local stability at the disease-free and the endemic equilibrium point which give a more accurate understanding of the dynamism and behavior of the system. Stability analysis is performed using Picard stability in Banach spaces, and Lagrange's interpolation formula is employed to obtain initial approximations for successive fractional orders. The findings of this study demonstrate that fractional orders, along with memory effects, play a crucial role in describing the transmission dynamics of brucellosis. Sensitivity analysis helps identify the parameters most critical to the infection rate, providing essential data for potential control measures. The results highlight the applicability of the Caputo-Fabrizio operator in modeling the transmission of infectious diseases like brucellosis and offer a strong foundation for controlling disease spread within communities.

Effective intervention of brucellosis prevention in developing countries: A dynamic modelling study

Objective

Brucellosis has a considerable impact on human health and the economy in developing countries. In China, the biggest developing country, brucellosis shifted spread of the epidemic from northern to southern regions. Understanding the transmission characteristic of brucellosis on Hunan province, located in central China, is of great significance for successful control.

Methods

We developed a multi-population and multi-route dynamic model (MPMRDM), which is an animal-human-environment coupled model. The model is an extension of the SEIR model, taking into account direct transmission and indirect transmission. We used the model to explore the spread of brucellosis and evaluate the effectiveness of various intervention strategies.

Results

The animal-to-animal transmission rate was the highest at 5.14 × 10-8, while the environment-to-person transmission rate was the lowest at 9.49 × 10-12. The mean R0 was 1.51. The most effective intervention was taking personal protection, followed by shortening the infection period. Shortening the infection period combined with personal protection is the most effective two-combined intervention strategy. After any comprehensive intervention strategy was implemented, TAR dropped by 90% or more.

Conclusion

The results demonstrate that animal transmission route is essential for controlling human brucellosis. Strengthening personal protection, early detection, and early treatment can effectively control the trend of brucellosis. These results can provide an important reference for optimizing brucellosis intervention plans.

Epidemiological characteristics and spatio-temporal clusters of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia, 2010-2021

BACKGROUND

Brucellosis poses a significant public health challenge in China. Inner Mongolia, characterized by its developed livestock industry, is the most severe endemic area for human brucellosis. This study aims to describe the epidemiology, explore the spatial-temporal distribution patterns, and clustering characteristics of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia.

METHODS

Data on human brucellosis cases from 2010 to 2021 were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Inner Mongolia. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to identify high-risk areas, while spatial-temporal scan statistics were employed to detect changes in clusters over time.

RESULTS

A total of 153,792 brucellosis cases were reported in Inner Mongolia from 2010 to 2021, with an average annual incidence rate of 52.59 per 100,000 persons. The incidence showed a decreasing trend from 2010 to 2016, followed by a significant increase from 2016 to 2021. The disease exhibited distinct seasonality, peaking in spring and summer (March to August). Middle-aged individuals, males, and farmers/herdsmen had higher incidence rates. Spatially, incidence rates decreased from north to south and from the central and eastern regions to the west. Clear spatial clusters were observed during 2010-2013 and 2016-2021 in the global Moran's I test. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that high-high clusters expanded from the central and eastern regions towards the west over time. Spatio-temporal scan analysis further indicated that high-risk clusters were primarily concentrated in the central and eastern regions, with a continuous expansion towards the west and south, leading to an increasingly broad geographical spread.

CONCLUSION

Human brucellosis cases in Inner Mongolia exhibit spatio-temporal clustering, with spatial concentration in the central and eastern regions, but also observed expansion towards the western and southern regions. The most of cases occur between March and August each year. For high-risk areas and populations, more timely and effective prevention and control measures should be implemented to mitigate the spread of brucellosis and protect public health.

Dynamic analysis of sheep Brucellosis model with environmental infection pathways

We develop a mathematical model for the transmission of brucellosis in sheep taking into account external inputs, immunity, stage structure and other factors. We find the the basic reproduction number $ R_0 $ in terms of the model parameters, and prove the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium. Then, the existence and global stability of the endemic equilibrium is proven. Finally, sheep data from Yulin, China are employed to fit the model parameters for three different environmental infection exposure conditions. The variability between different models in terms of control measures are analyzed numerically. Results show that the model is sensitive to the control parameters for different environmental infection exposure functions. This means that in practical modeling, the selection of environmental infection exposure functions needs to be properly considered.

Accessibility of the three-year comprehensive prevention and control of brucellosis in Ningxia: a mathematical modeling study

BACKGROUND

Brucellosis is a chronic zoonotic disease, and Ningxia is one of the high prevalence regions in China. To mitigate the spread of brucellosis, the government of Ningxia has implemented a comprehensive prevention and control plan (2022-2024). It is meaningful to quantitatively evaluate the accessibility of this strategy.

METHODS

Based on the transmission characteristics of brucellosis in Ningxia, we propose a dynamical model of sheep-human-environment, which coupling with the stage structure of sheep and indirect environmental transmission. We first calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and use the model to fit the data of human brucellosis. Then, three widely applied control strategies of brucellosis in Ningxia, that is, slaughtering of sicked sheep, health education to high risk practitioners, and immunization of adult sheep, are evaluated.

RESULTS

The basic reproduction number is calculated as [Formula: see text], indicating that human brucellosis will persist. The model has a good alignment with the human brucellosis data. The quantitative accessibility evaluation results show that current brucellosis control strategy may not reach the goal on time. "Ningxia Brucellosis Prevention and Control Special Three-Year Action Implementation Plan (2022-2024)" will be achieved in 2024 when increasing slaughtering rate [Formula: see text] by 30[Formula: see text], increasing health education to reduce [Formula: see text] to 50[Formula: see text], and an increase of immunization rate of adult sheep [Formula: see text] by 40[Formula: see text].

CONCLUSION

The results demonstrate that the comprehensive control measures are the most effective for brucellosis control, and it is necessary to further strengthen the multi-sectoral joint mechanism and adopt integrated measures to prevention and control brucellosis. These results can provide a reliable quantitative basis for further optimizing the prevention and control strategy of brucellosis in Ningxia.

Exploring risk transfer of human brucellosis in the context of livestock agriculture transition: A case study in Shaanxi, China

With the booming of worldwide agriculture intensification, brucellosis, one of the most neglected zoonotic diseases, has become an increasing challenge for global public health. Although the transmission patterns of human brucellosis (HB) have been studied in many regions, the dynamic transfer processes of risk and its driving factors remain poorly understood, especially in the context of agricultural intensification. This study attempted to explore the risk transfer of HB between the exact epidemic areas and the neighboring or distant low-risk areas to explain the impact of livestock agriculture intensification and foodborne infections on the transmission of HB in Shaanxi Province as a case study. We adopted multiple approaches, including test-based methods, model-based methods, and a geographical detector to detect the spatial-temporal dynamic changes of high-risk epidemic areas of HB at the county scale. We also quantitatively estimated how the related factors drove the risk transfer of the disease. Results confirmed the risk transfer pattern of HB with an expansion from north to south in Shaanxi Province and identified two primary transfer routes. In particular, in the traditional epidemic areas of the Shaanbei plateau, the farm agglomeration effect can significantly increase the risk of HB. Meanwhile, retail outlets for milk and dairy products were partially responsible for the foodborne infections of HB in the emerging epidemic areas of Xi'an. This study not only contributed helpful insights to support HB control and prevention in the rapid transition of livestock agriculture but also provided possible directions for further research on foodborne HB infections in urbanized areas.

Optimal control strategy analysis for an human-animal brucellosis infection model with multiple delays

Firstly, we consider an animal-human infection model of brucellosis with three distributed delays, representing the latent period of brucellosis in infected animal and human population and the survival time of brucella in the environment, respectively. The equilibrium points and basic reproduction number R 0 are calculated. By building appropriate Lyapunov functionals and applying LaSalle's invariance principle, the sufficient conditions for global asymptotic stability of two equilibria are given. Secondly, by introducing four control variables, we set the corresponding optimal control model and drive the first order necessary conditions for the existence of optimal control solution. Finally, we perform several numerical simulations to validate our theoretical results and show effects of different control strategies.

Interactions of periodic birth and shearing induce outbreak of Brucellosis in Inner Mongolia

Brucellosis, a zoonotic disease, has brought about enormous human suffering and tremendous economic burden to animal husbandry in China. However, Inner Mongolia is the hardest hit area of brucellosis in China. A total of 132,037 human cases have been reported from 2010 to 2020. Endogenous mechanisms of brucellosis spreading across Inner Mongolia till remains to be revealed. We propose a periodic epidemic model to investigate the effect of periodic parameter changes on brucellosis epidemics. Then we evaluate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and analyze the global dynamics of the model. Furthermore, key parameters related to periodic transmission are estimated based on the monthly data of human brucellosis cases and the trend of newly infected human brucellosis cases are predicted in Inner Mongolia. Our modeling results illustrate that periodical birth and sheep shearing play a significant role in inducing periodical outbreak of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia. Moreover, it is exhibited that the annual peak number and the final scale of human brucellosis cases will be reduced dramatically with the delayed peak time of sheep birth. While the annual peak time will be lagged and the annual peak number will be decreased as the peak time of sheep shearing is postponed. In addition, we discover that it is difficult to stem brucellosis even if all sheep are vaccinated besides ewes. Nevertheless, the detection rate exceed a certain value 0.032 or the decaying rate of Brucella surpass a critical value 0.585, the human brucellosis can be regulated in Inner Mongolia according to the sensitivity analysis of [Formula: see text]. The insights shed herein may contribute to the careful implementation of brucellosis control strategies in other regions.

A Model for Brucellosis Disease Incorporating Age of Infection and Waning Immunity

This paper proposes a model for brucellosis transmission. The model takes into account the age of infection and waning immunity, that is, the progressive loss of immunity after recovery. Three routes of transmissions are considered: vertical transmission, and both direct and indirect routes of horizontal transmission. According to the well-posedness results, we provide explicit formulas for the equilibria. Next, we derive the basic reproduction number R0 and prove some stability results depending on the basic reproductive number. Finally, we perform numerical simulations using model parameters estimated from biological data to confirm our theoretical results. The results of these simulations suggest that for certain values of parameters, there will be periodic outbreaks of epidemics, and the disease will not be eradicated from the population. Our results also highlight the fact that the birth rate of cattle significantly influences the dynamics of the disease. The proposed model can be of a good use in studying the effects of vaccination on the cattle population.

Factors Associated With Diagnostic Delays in Human Brucellosis in Tongliao City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

The diagnostic delays pose a huge challenge to human brucellosis (HB), which increases the risk of chronicity and complications with a heavy disease burden. This study aimed to quantify and identify the associated factors in the diagnostic delays to its prevention, reduction, and elimination. This study analyzed risk factors associated with the diagnostic delays in a cross-sectional study with data collected from Tongliao City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China. Diagnostic delays were defined with a cutoff of 30, 60, and 90 days. In different delay groups, risk factors of diagnostic delays were analyzed by univariate analysis and modeled by multivariate logistic regression analysis. A total of 14,506 cases were collected between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2017, of which the median diagnostic delays was 29 days [interquartile range (IQR): 14–54 days]. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the older age category was associated with longer diagnostic delays across all groups. Longer diagnostic delays increase with age among three delay groups (p for trend <0.001). Occupation as herdsman was associated with shorter diagnostic delays in group 1 with 30 days [adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 0.890 (95% CI 0.804–0.986)]. Diagnostic delays was shorter in patients with brucellosis who were reported in CDC in all delay groups [aOR 0.738 (95% CI 0.690–0.790), 0.539 (95% CI 0.497–0.586), and 0.559 (95% CI 0.504–0.621)]. Pastoral/agricultural area was associated with shorter diagnostic delays in group 1 with 30 days [aOR, 0.889 (95%CI 0.831–0.951)] and group 3 with 90 days [aOR, 0.806 (95%CI 0.727–0.893)]. Stratified analysis showed that the older age category was associated with an increased risk of a long delay in both genders (p < 0.05). The older age group-to-youth group OR increased along with increased delay time (p for trend <0.001). Furthermore, the pastoral/agricultural area was associated with a shorter delay in males (p < 0.05). Delays exist in the diagnosis of HB. We should pay great attention to the risk factors of diagnostic delays, such as older population, non-herdsman, non-pastoral/agricultural area, non-disease prevention, and control agencies. Effective measures should shorten the diagnostic delays, achieve early detection, diagnosis, and treatment, and reduce the risk of HB's chronicity, complications, and economic burden.

Changes in the epidemiological characteristics of human brucellosis in Shaanxi Province from 2008 to 2020

In the present study, surveys of case numbers, constituent ratios, conventional biotyping, and multilocus sequence typing (MLST) were applied to characterize the incidence rate and epidemiological characteristics of human brucellosis in Shaanxi Province, China. A total of 12,215 human brucellosis cases were reported during 2008-2020, for an annual average incidence rate of 2.48/100,000. The most significant change was that the county numbers of reported cases increased from 36 in 2008 to 84 in 2020, with a geographic expansion trend from northern Shaanxi to Guanzhong, and southern Shaanxi regions; the incidence rate declined in previous epidemic northern Shaanxi regions while increasing each year in Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi regions such as Hancheng and Xianyang. The increased incidence was closely related to the development of large-scale small ruminants (goats and sheep) farms in Guanzhong and some southern Shaanxi regions. Another significant feature was that student cases (n = 261) were ranked second among all occupations, accounting for 2.14% of the total number of cases, with the majority due to drinking unsterilized goat milk. Three Brucella species were detected (B. melitensis (bv. 1, 2, 3 and variant), B. abortus bv. 3/6, and B. suis bv. 1) and were mainly distributed in the northern Shaanxi and Guanzhong regions. Three known STs (ST8, ST2, and ST14) were identified based on MLST analysis. The characteristics that had not changed were that B. melitensis strains belonging to the ST8 population were the dominant species and were observed in all nine regions during the examined periods. Strengthened human and animal brucellosis surveillance and restriction of the transfer of infected sheep (goats) as well as students avoiding drinking raw milk are suggested as optimal control strategies.

Participatory and Transdisciplinary Studies of Brucella Infection in Humans and Animals in Yunnan Province, China-Lessons Learned

Brucellosis is an important zoonosis occurring globally. In addition to the risk for disease in humans, the disease causes production losses, since the disease in livestock is characterized by abortion and other reproductive failures. The disease is a public health concern in China, but no information is available on knowledge, perception and awareness of potential risk groups such as farmers, butchers and animal health workers; yet successful control requires compliance of those affected groups to be effective. Following the principles of the Ecohealth approach, emphasis was given to participation of all relevant stakeholders, use of qualitative and quantitative tools, and cross-sectorial collaboration. Data collection included on-farm questionnaires (N = 192) and collection of bulk milk samples of goat (N = 40), cattle (N = 45) and buffalo (N = 41) from farms, as well as serum samples (N = 228) from humans. Milk samples were tested with an ELISA for presence of antibodies, while a serum agglutination test was used for human samples. Qualitative work included 17 focus group discussion (FGD) with villagers and 47 in-depth interviews (IDI) with village animal health workers, doctors, and butchers, focused on knowledge, perception and awareness on zoonoses including brucellosis. Results from questionnaires indicate that abortions are a common problem; cattle with abortion history are kept for further insemination and the milk still consumed or sold. Antibodies against Brucella were detected in cows' (5/45) and goats' (1/40) milk samples, and in human samples (5/126) in Yiliang, while in Mangshi, all buffalo (N = 41) and humans (N = 102) were negative. FGD and IDI results showed an alarmingly low knowledge and awareness on zoonoses; particularly, low awareness about brucellosis was noted, even among the professional groups. Collaboration between village animal health workers and doctors was uncommon. No confirmed brucellosis cases were found in retrospective investigation of hospital and veterinary stations. This study demonstrates the presence of brucellosis in livestock and humans in Yunnan, indicating a non-negligible risk for humans. It is also made apparent that there is a need for increased awareness among both farmers and professionals in order to reduce the risk of zoonotic transmissions.

Human brucellosis epidemiology in the pastoral area of Hulun Buir city, Inner Mongolia autonomous region, China, between 2003 and 2018

Human brucellosis represents a serious public health concern in Hulun Buir and requires a comprehensive epidemiologic analysis to define adapted control measures. The present study describes the case numbers, constituent ratios and incidence rate of human brucellosis. Conventional biotyping, that is abortus, melitensis, ovis and suis (AMOS)-PCR and multi-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) were used to characterize the Brucella strains. Between 2003 and 2018, a total of 23,897 human brucellosis cases were reported, with an incidence rate of 56.03/100,000, which is 20 times higher than the country's average incidence. This incidence rate increased year after year, culminating in 2005 and decreased between 2011 and 2018. Because Hulun Buir relies on a nomadic livestock rearing system, brucellosis spreads easily among different animal species and humans. In Xin Barag Left Banner and Xin Barag Right Banner, the incidence rates were, respectively, 226.54/100,000 and 199.10/100,000, exceeding those observed in other areas. Most of the cases occurred in the 25- to 45-year-old group, accounting for 65.74% of the cases (15,709/23,897), and among farmers, accounting for 66.71% (15,942/23,897). The male to female incidence ratio was 2.67:1. The higher incidence in younger people and the large gender ratio reflected the unique traditional production and lifestyle of nomads. Most reported cases were observed from April to June, indicating that more than 40% of the cases were related to the delivery of domestic livestock. The biotyping showed that the 44 isolated strains were all B. melitensis, including 12 Brucella melitensis biovar (bv) 1 and 32 B. melitensis bv. 3. The strains displayed a genetic similarity of 80%-100%. Our hypothesis is that human brucellosis outbreak in this region may be originating from a limited source of infection, so further investigation is necessary. The epidemic situation of human brucellosis in Hulun Buir is extremely serious, strengthened surveillance and control in animals' brucellosis should be priority.

Brucella melitensis, a latent "travel bacterium," continual spread and expansion from Northern to Southern China and its relationship to worldwide lineages

Brucellosis caused by Brucella melitensis is considered to be one of the most important zoonotic diseases in China. In this study, Conventional bio-typing, MLVA (multiple locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis), and WGS (whole-genome sequencing)-SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) were used to study the genetic similarity of B. melitensis in northern and southern China and analyze its relationship with worldwide lineages. Currently, the distribution of species/biovars of B. melitensis has obviously changed, and B. melitensis has become the dominant species in southern regions of China. Strains from the southern had a common geographic origin with strains from the northern. Many MLVA-16 events were shared in the genotypes of the southern and northern strains, suggest that genotypic movement occurred from north to south. Based on WGS-SNP analysis, strains from different provinces were closely related and may have descended from one common ancestor, suggests that the southern strains originated from northern China. These data indicate that B. melitensis is a latent “travel bacterium” that spread and expanded from North China to South China. Moreover, B. melitensis strains from China are also genetically related to strains from other Asian regions (Kazakhstan, Russia, Mongolia, and India). The movement of infected sheep and their products requires control.

Comparison of ARIMA model and XGBoost model for prediction of human brucellosis in mainland China: a time-series study

OBJECTIVES

Human brucellosis is a public health problem endangering health and property in China. Predicting the trend and the seasonality of human brucellosis is of great significance for its prevention. In this study, a comparison between the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model was conducted to determine which was more suitable for predicting the occurrence of brucellosis in mainland China.

DESIGN

Time-series study.

SETTING

Mainland China.

METHODS

Data on human brucellosis in mainland China were provided by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China. The data were divided into a training set and a test set. The training set was composed of the monthly incidence of human brucellosis in mainland China from January 2008 to June 2018, and the test set was composed of the monthly incidence from July 2018 to June 2019. The mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to evaluate the effects of model fitting and prediction.

RESULTS

The number of human brucellosis patients in mainland China increased from 30 002 in 2008 to 40 328 in 2018. There was an increasing trend and obvious seasonal distribution in the original time series. For the training set, the MAE, RSME and MAPE of the ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂ model were 338.867, 450.223 and 10.323, respectively, and the MAE, RSME and MAPE of the XGBoost model were 189.332, 262.458 and 4.475, respectively. For the test set, the MAE, RSME and MAPE of the ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂ model were 529.406, 586.059 and 17.676, respectively, and the MAE, RSME and MAPE of the XGBoost model were 249.307, 280.645 and 7.643, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The performance of the XGBoost model was better than that of the ARIMA model. The XGBoost model is more suitable for prediction cases of human brucellosis in mainland China.

Transmission dynamics of brucellosis: Mathematical modelling and applications in China

Brucellosis, the most common zoonotic disease worldwide, represents a great threat to animal husbandry with the potential to cause enormous economic losses. Meanwhile, brucellosis is one of the major public-health problems in China, and the number of human brucellosis cases has increased dramatically in recent years. In order to show the main features of brucellosis transmission in China, we give a systematic review on the transmission dynamics of brucellosis including a series of mathematical models and their applications in China. For different situations, dynamical models of brucellosis transmission in single population and multiple populations are devised based on ordinary differential equations. Furthermore, we revealed the spatial-temporal characteristics and effective control measures of brucellosis transmission. The results may provide new perspectives for the prevention and control of other types of zoonoses.

Spatiotemporal expansion of human brucellosis in Shaanxi Province, Northwestern China and model for risk prediction

Background

Human brucellosis imposes a heavy burden on the health and economy of endemic regions. Since 2011, China has reported at least 35,000 human brucellosis cases annually, with more than 90% of these cases reported in the northern. Given the alarmingly high incidence and variation in the geographical distribution of human brucellosis cases, there is an urgent need to decipher the causes of such variation in geographical distribution.

Method

We conducted a retrospective epidemiological study in Shaanxi Province from January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2018 to investigate the association between meteorological factors and transmission of human brucellosis according to differences in geographical distribution and seasonal fluctuation in northwestern China for the first time.

Results

Human brucellosis cases were mainly distributed in the Shaanbei upland plateau before 2008 and then slowly extended towards the southern region with significant seasonal fluctuation. The results of quasi-Poisson generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) indicated that air temperature, sunshine duration, rainfall, relative humidity, and evaporation with maximum lag time within 7 months played crucial roles in the transmission of human brucellosis with seasonal fluctuation. Compared with the Shaanbei upland plateau, Guanzhong basin had more obvious fluctuations in the occurrence of human brucellosis due to changes in meteorological factors. Additionally, the established GAMM model showed high accuracy in predicting the occurrence of human brucellosis based on the meteorological factors.

Conclusion

These findings may be used to predict the seasonal fluctuations of human brucellosis and to develop reliable and cost-effective prevention strategies in Shaanxi Province and other areas with similar environmental conditions.

An estimate of the incidence and quantitative risk assessment of human brucellosis in mainland China

Two epidemiological models were applied to simulate whether animals with latent infections were contagious and calculate the outcomes of people that contracting brucellosis by all possible transmission routes under control measures implemented by the Chinese government. The health and economic burden of brucellosis overall presented an increasing trend from 2004 to 2017. Scenarios from epidemiological models showed that a larger scale of vaccine coverage would contribute to fewer infections in livestock and humans. S2 vaccine, the disinfection of the environment and the protection of the susceptible animals and humans could effectively reverse the trend of increasing brucellosis and reduce the incidence rates of brucellosis in humans to curb the epidemic of brucellosis in China.

Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of Human Brucellosis in China, 1950-2018

The rate of brucellosis, a zoonotic disease, has rapidly increased in humans brucellosis(HB) in recent years. In 1950-2018, a total of 684,380 HB cases (median 2274/year (interquartile range (IQR) 966-8325)) were reported to the National Infectious Disease Surveillance System in mainland China. The incidence of HB peaked in 2014 (4.32/100,000), and then showed a downward trend; we predict that it will maintain a steady downward trend in 2019-2020. Since 2015, the incidence of HB has shown opposite trends in the north and south of China; rates in the north have fallen and rates in the south have increased. In 2004-2018, the most significant increases in incidence of HB were in Yunnan (IQR 0.002-0.463/100,000), Hubei (IQR 0.000-0.338/100,000), and Guangdong (IQR 0.015-0.350/100,000). The areas where HB occurs have little overlap with areas with high per capita GDP in China. The "high-high" clusters of HB are located in northeastern China (Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Ningxia, Shanxi, and Gansu), and the "low-low" clusters of HB are located in southern China (Yunnan, Jiangxi, Shanghai, Guangxi, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Guizhou, and Hunan). In recent years, the incidence of HB in China has been controlled to some extent, but the incidence of HB has increased in southern China, and the disease has spread geographically in China from north to south. Further research is needed to address this change and to continue to explore the relationship between the incidence of HB and relevant factors.

On the Design of Hyperstable Feedback Controllers for a Class of Parameterized Nonlinearities. Two Application Examples for Controlling Epidemic Models

This paper studies the hyperstability and the asymptotic hyperstability of a single-input single-output controlled dynamic system whose feed-forward input-output dynamics is nonlinear and eventually time-varying consisting of a linear nominal part, a linear incremental perturbed part and a nonlinear and eventually time-varying one. The nominal linear part is described by a positive real transfer function while the linear perturbation is defined by a stable transfer function. The nonlinear and time-varying disturbance is, in general, unstructured but it is upper-bounded by the combination of three additive absolute terms depending on the input, output and input-output product, respectively. The non-linear time-varying feedback controller is any member belonging to a general class which satisfies an integral Popov's-type inequality. This problem statement allows the study of the conditions guaranteeing the robust stability properties under a variety of the controllers designed for the controlled system and controller disturbances. In this way, set of robust hyperstability and asymptotic hyperstability of the closed-loop system are given based on the fact that the input-output energy of the feed-forward controlled system is positive and bounded for all time and any given initial conditions and controls satisfying Popov's inequality. The importance of those hyperstability and asymptotic hyperstability properties rely on the fact that they are related to global closed-loop stability, or respectively, global closed-loop asymptotic stability of the same uncontrolled feed-forward dynamics subject to a great number of controllers under the only condition that that they satisfy such a Popov's-type inequality. It is well-known the relevance of vaccination and treatment controls for Public Health Management at the levels of prevention and healing. Therefore, two application examples concerning the linearization of known epidemic models and their appropriate vaccination and/or treatment controls on the susceptible and infectious, respectively, are discussed in detail with the main objective in mind of being able of achieving a fast convergence of the state- trajectory solutions to the disease- free equilibrium points under a wide class of control laws under deviations of the equilibrium amounts of such populations.

An exploratory study of factors associated with human brucellosis in mainland China based on time-series-cross-section data from 2005 to 2016

Objective

Many studies focused on reasons behind the increasing incidence and the spread of human brucellosis in mainland China, yet most of them lacked comprehensive consideration with quantitative evidence. Hence, this study aimed to further investigate the epidemic mechanism and associated factors of human brucellosis so as to provide thoughts for future countermeasures in China and the rest of the world.

Methods

Data of human brucellosis incidence and some associated factors in economy, animal husbandry, transportation as well as health and hygiene were collected at provincial level from 2005–2016. Time series plots were first used to visualize the annual incidence and annual rate of change of human brucellosis for each province, then cluster analysis categorized all the 31 provinces of mainland China based on their incidence time series during the study period. In addition, according to the characteristics of data, the dynamic panel data model in combination with supervised principal component analysis was proposed to explore effects of associated factors on human brucellosis.

Results

1. The incidence rate of human brucellosis in mainland China increased three-fold from 1.41 per 100,000 people in 2005 to 4.22 per 100,000 people in 2014, though it went down a little in 2015 and 2016. Incidence rates in the north have always been higher than those in the south, but the latter also experienced an upward trend especially between 2012 and 2016. 2. The 31 provinces of mainland China were categorized into three clusters, and each cluster had its own characteristics of incidence time series. 3. The impact of health and hygiene situations on the prevention and control work of human brucellosis was still very limited and trivial (regression coefficient = -0.02). Therefore, it was plausible to presume that improving the personal average number of medical institutes and the proportion of rural medical expenditure might be helpful in preventing and controlling human brucellosis.

Conclusions

The epidemic status of human brucellosis has changed in both spatial and temporal dimensions in recent years in mainland China. Apart from traditional control measures, more attention should be paid to the improvement of medical healthcare especially in rural areas in the hope of enhancing the control effect.

Spotted Fever Group Rickettsiae in Inner Mongolia, China, 2015-2016

We found Rickettsia raoultii infection in 6/261 brucellosis-negative patients with fever of unknown origin in brucellosis-endemic Inner Mongolia, China. We further identified Hyalomma asiaticum ticks associated with R. raoultii, H. marginatum ticks associated with R. aeschlimannii, and Dermacentor nuttalli ticks associated with both rickettsiae species in the autonomous region.

Immunogenicity of adenovirus and DNA vaccines co-expressing P39 and lumazine synthase proteins of Brucella abortus in BALB/c mice

Brucella poses a great threat to animal and human health. Vaccination is the most promising strategy in the effort to control Brucella abortus (B. abortus) infection, but the currently used live vaccines interfere with diagnostic tests and could potentially result in disease outbreak. Therefore, new subunit vaccines and combined immunization strategies are currently under investigation. In this study, immunogenicity and protection ability of a recombinant adenovirus and plasmid DNA vaccine co-expressing P39 and lumazine synthase proteins of B. abortus were evaluated based on the construction of the two molecular vaccines. Four immunization strategies (single adenovirus, single DNA, adenovirus/DNA, DNA/adenovirus) were investigated. The results showed that the immunization strategy of DNA priming followed by adenovirus boosting induced robust humoral and cellular immune responses, and it significantly reduced the numbers of B. abortus in a mouse model. These results suggest that it could be a potential antigen candidate for development of a new subunit vaccine against B. abortus infection.