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Zhu Z, Feng Y, Gu L, Guan X, Liu N, Zhu X, Gu H, Cai J, Li X. Spatio-temporal pattern and associate factors of intestinal infectious diseases in Zhejiang Province, China, 2008-2021: a Bayesian modeling study. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:1652. [PMID: 37644452 PMCID: PMC10464402 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-16552-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2023] [Accepted: 08/17/2023] [Indexed: 08/31/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite significant progress in sanitation status and public health awareness, intestinal infectious diseases (IID) have caused a serious disease burden in China. Little was known about the spatio-temporal pattern of IID at the county level in Zhejiang. Therefore, a spatio-temporal modelling study to identify high-risk regions of IID incidence and potential risk factors was conducted. METHODS Reported cases of notifiable IID from 2008 to 2021 were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Moran's I index and the local indicators of spatial association (LISA) were calculated using Geoda software to identify the spatial autocorrelation and high-risk areas of IID incidence. Bayesian hierarchical model was used to explore socioeconomic and climate factors affecting IID incidence inequities from spatial and temporal perspectives. RESULTS From 2008 to 2021, a total of 101 cholera, 55,298 bacterial dysentery, 131 amoebic dysentery, 5297 typhoid, 2102 paratyphoid, 27,947 HEV, 1,695,925 hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), and 1,505,797 other infectious diarrhea (OID) cases were reported in Zhejiang Province. The hot spots for bacterial dysentery, OID, and HEV incidence were found mainly in Hangzhou, while high-high cluster regions for incidence of enteric fever and HFMD were mainly located in Ningbo. The Bayesian model showed that Areas with a high proportion of males had a lower risk of BD and enteric fever. People under the age of 18 may have a higher risk of IID. High urbanization rate was a protective factor against HFMD (RR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.88, 0.94), but was a risk factor for HEV (RR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01-1.10). BD risk (RR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.10-1.18) and enteric fever risk (RR = 1.18, 95% CI:1.10-1.27) seemed higher in areas with high GDP per capita. The greater the population density, the higher the risk of BD (RR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.23-1.36), enteric fever (RR = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.00-1.25), and HEV (RR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.09-1.21). Among climate variables, higher temperature was associated with a higher risk of BD (RR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.23-1.41), enteric fever (RR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.33-1.50), and HFMD (RR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.08-1.38), and with lower risk of HEV (RR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.78-0.89). Precipitation was positively correlated with enteric fever (RR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.00-1.08), HFMD (RR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00-1.06), and HEV (RR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.03-1.08). Higher HFMD risk was also associated with increasing relative humidity (RR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.16-1.24) and lower wind velocity (RR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.84-0.92). CONCLUSIONS There was significant spatial clustering of IID incidence in Zhejiang Province from 2008 to 2021. Spatio-temporal patterns of IID risk could be largely explained by socioeconomic and meteorological factors. Preventive measures and enhanced monitoring should be taken in some high-risk counties in Hangzhou city and Ningbo city.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhixin Zhu
- Department of Big Data in Health Science, and Center for Clinical Big Data and Statistics, The Second Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Yan Feng
- Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, 310051, China
| | - Lanfang Gu
- Department of Big Data in Health Science, and Center for Clinical Big Data and Statistics, The Second Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Xifei Guan
- Department of Big Data in Health Science, and Center for Clinical Big Data and Statistics, The Second Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Nawen Liu
- Department of Big Data in Health Science, and Center for Clinical Big Data and Statistics, The Second Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Xiaoxia Zhu
- Department of Big Data in Health Science, and Center for Clinical Big Data and Statistics, The Second Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Hua Gu
- The Cancer Hospital of the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Zhejiang Cancer Hospital), Institute of Basic Medicine and Cancer, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hangzhou, 310022, China
| | - Jian Cai
- Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, 310051, China.
| | - Xiuyang Li
- Department of Big Data in Health Science, and Center for Clinical Big Data and Statistics, The Second Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China.
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Huang W, Gao Y, Xu R, Yang Z, Yu P, Ye T, Ritchie EA, Li S, Guo Y. Health Effects of Cyclones: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Epidemiological Studies. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2023; 131:86001. [PMID: 37639476 PMCID: PMC10461789 DOI: 10.1289/ehp12158] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2022] [Revised: 07/31/2023] [Accepted: 08/03/2023] [Indexed: 08/31/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND More intense cyclones are expected in the future as a result of climate change. A comprehensive review is urgently needed to summarize and update the evidence on the health effects of cyclones. OBJECTIVES We aimed to provide a systematic review with meta-analysis of current evidence on the risks of all reported health outcomes related to cyclones and to identify research gaps and make recommendations for further research. METHODS We systematically searched five electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science) for relevant studies in English published before 21 December 2022. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines, we developed inclusion criteria, screened the literature, and included epidemiological studies with a quantitative risk assessment of any mortality or morbidity-related outcomes associated with cyclone exposures. We extracted key data and assessed study quality for these studies and applied meta-analyses to quantify the overall effect estimate and the heterogeneity of comparable studies. RESULTS In total, 71 studies from eight countries (the United States, China, India, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, Australia, Brazil), mostly the United States, were included in the review. These studies investigated the all-cause and cause-specific mortality, as well as morbidity related to injury, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), respiratory diseases, infectious diseases, mental disorders, adverse birth outcomes, cancer, diabetes, and other outcomes (e.g., suicide rates, gender-based violence). Studies mostly included only one high-amplitude cyclone (cyclones with a Saffir-Simpson category of 4 or 5, i.e., Hurricanes Katrina or Sandy) and focused on mental disorders morbidity and all-cause mortality and hospitalizations. Consistently elevated risks of overall mental health morbidity, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), as well as all-cause mortality or hospitalizations, were found to be associated with cyclones. However, the results for other outcomes were generally mixed or limited. A statistically significant overall relative risk of 1.09 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04, 1.13], 1.18 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.25), 1.15 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.18), 1.26 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.50) was observed for all-cause mortality, all-cause hospitalizations, respiratory disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease hospitalizations, respectively, after cyclone exposures, whereas no statistically significant risks were identified for diabetes mortality, heart disease mortality, and preterm birth. High between-study heterogeneity was observed. CONCLUSIONS There is generally consistent evidence supporting the notion that high-amplitude cyclones could significantly increase risks of mental disorders, especially for PTSD, as well as mortality and hospitalizations, but the evidence for other health outcomes, such as chronic diseases (e.g., CVDs, cancer, diabetes), and adverse birth outcomes remains limited or inconsistent. More studies with rigorous exposure assessment, of larger spatial and temporal scales, and using advanced modeling strategy are warranted in the future, especially for those small cyclone-prone countries or regions with low and middle incomes. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12158.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenzhong Huang
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Yuan Gao
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Rongbin Xu
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Zhengyu Yang
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Pei Yu
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Tingting Ye
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Elizabeth A. Ritchie
- School of Earth Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Shanshan Li
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Yuming Guo
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Gao S, Wang Y, Webster GD. Causal Modeling of Descriptive Social Norms from Twitter and the Physical World on Expressed Attitudes Change: A Case Study of COVID-19 Vaccination. CYBERPSYCHOLOGY, BEHAVIOR AND SOCIAL NETWORKING 2022; 25:769-775. [PMID: 36374239 DOI: 10.1089/cyber.2022.0153] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The high infection rate of SARS-CoV-2 makes it urgent to promote vaccination among the public. Previous studies found that people tend to follow the behaviors desired in descriptive social norms, which exist in both social media (e.g., Twitter) and physical-world communities. However, it remains unclear whether and to what extent the descriptive social norms from the cyber and physical communities affect people's attitude change. This study, focusing on COVID-19 vaccination, developed a Directed Acyclic Graphs model to investigate the causal effects of the descriptive social norms of (i) Twitterverse and (ii) physical-world communities on people's attitude change as well as the temporal scales of the effects. It used a Long Short-Term Memory classifier to extract expressed attitudes and changes from relevant tweets posted by 843 sample users. We found that a people's attitude change toward the vaccination receives a more significant impact from Twitter-based descriptive social norms over the prior week, whereas the norms in the physical-world communities tend to be less influential but still notable with the time gap between 2 weeks and 1 month. The findings revealed the potential of using online social norm approaches to proactively motivate behavioral changes toward a culture of health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shangde Gao
- Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Florida Institute for Built Environment Resilience, College of Design, Construction and Planning, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
| | - Yan Wang
- Department of Urban and Regional Planning and Florida Institute for Built Environment Resilience, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
| | - Gregory D Webster
- Department of Psychology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
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Feng H, Zhang H, Ma C, Zhang H, Yin D, Fang H. National and provincial burden of varicella disease and cost-effectiveness of childhood varicella vaccination in China from 2019 to 2049: a modelling analysis. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. WESTERN PACIFIC 2022; 32:100639. [PMID: 36785851 PMCID: PMC9918754 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100639] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2022] [Revised: 10/12/2022] [Accepted: 10/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
Background In China, varicella is the third most frequently reported vaccine-preventable infectious disease after tuberculosis and influenza, and imposes a heavy burden on families and society. To inform future immunization policy, we investigated disease burden of varicella in China and explored cost-effectiveness of different varicella vaccination strategies at national and provincial levels. Methods A dynamic transmission model was developed to assess disease burden of varicella and the impact of varicella vaccination in China. A cost-effectiveness analysis of three alternative vaccination strategies in China's National Immunization Program (NIP) compared with no vaccination was conducted. Scenario analyses and sensitivity analyses were performed to check the robustness of the results. Findings It was estimated that 3.35 million new varicella cases occurred in 2019, more than three times of 982 thousand cases officially reported from National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System (NNIDSS). The under-reported rate was approximately 71%. The economic analysis revealed that from the societal perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for one dose of varicella vaccination in NIP was US$ 2357 per QALY at the national level and it was cost-effective in 22 of 31 provinces. The ICER for one dose varicella vaccination plus a mass catch-up for unvaccinated children aged 2-11 years old would be US$ -5260 per QALY, cost-saving at the national level. The one dose plus mass catch-up NIP strategy was also cost-saving in 24 of the 31 provinces. Interpretation Varicella incident cases were substantially under-reported in China. Varicella vaccination in the NIP could significantly contribute to reducing the burden of varicella disease. From the societal perspective, including varicella vaccination into China's NIP was highly cost-effective at the national level and in most provinces. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huangyufei Feng
- School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, China,China Center for Health Development Studies, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, China
| | - Haijun Zhang
- School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, China,China Center for Health Development Studies, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, China
| | - Chao Ma
- National Immunization Program, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China
| | - Haonan Zhang
- School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, China,China Center for Health Development Studies, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, China
| | - Dapeng Yin
- Hainan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hainan, 570203, China,Corresponding author. Hainan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hainan, 570203, China
| | - Hai Fang
- China Center for Health Development Studies, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, China,Peking University Health Science Center, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Joint Center for Vaccine Economics, Beijing, 100191, China,Institute for Global Health and Development, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, China,Corresponding author. China Center for Health Development Studies, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China.
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Zhang Y, Ren H, Shi R. Influences of Differentiated Residence and Workplace Location on the Identification of Spatiotemporal Patterns of Dengue Epidemics: A Case Study in Guangzhou, China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:13393. [PMID: 36293969 PMCID: PMC9603590 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192013393] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2022] [Revised: 10/10/2022] [Accepted: 10/13/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
The location of the infections is the basic data for precise prevention and control of dengue fever (DF). However, most studies default to residence address as the place of infection, ignoring the possibility that cases are infected at other places (e.g., workplace address). This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of DF in Guangzhou from 2016 to 2018, differentiating workplace and residence. In terms of temporal and spatial dimensions, a case weight assignment method that differentiates workplace and residence location was proposed, taking into account the onset of cases around their workplace and residence. Logistic modeling was used to classify the epidemic phases. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to reveal the high and early incidence areas of DF in Guangzhou from 2016 to 2018. At high temporal resolution, the DF in Guangzhou has apparent phase characteristics and is consistent with logistic growth. The local epidemic is clustered in terms of the number of cases and the time of onset and outbreak. High and early epidemic areas are mainly distributed in the central urban areas of Baiyun, Yuexiu, Liwan and Haizhu districts. The high epidemic areas due to commuting cases can be further identified after considering the workplaces of cases. Improving the temporal resolution and differentiating the workplace and residence address of cases could help to improve the identification of early and high epidemic areas in analyzing the spatiotemporal patterns of dengue fever in Guangzhou, which could more reasonably reflect the spatiotemporal patterns of DF in the study area.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuqi Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
- School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
- Key Laboratory of Spatial-Temporal Big Data Analysis and Application of Natural Resources in Megacities, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shanghai 200241, China
- Joint Laboratory for Environmental Remote Sensing and Data Assimilation, ECNU&CEODE Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
| | - Hongyan Ren
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Runhe Shi
- State Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
- School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
- Key Laboratory of Spatial-Temporal Big Data Analysis and Application of Natural Resources in Megacities, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shanghai 200241, China
- Joint Laboratory for Environmental Remote Sensing and Data Assimilation, ECNU&CEODE Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
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Li C, Zhao Z, Yan Y, Liu Q, Zhao Q, Ma W. Short-term effects of tropical cyclones on the incidence of dengue: a time-series study in Guangzhou, China. Parasit Vectors 2022; 15:358. [PMID: 36203178 PMCID: PMC9535872 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-022-05486-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2022] [Accepted: 09/16/2022] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Limited evidence is available about the association between tropical cyclones and dengue incidence. This study aimed to examine the effects of tropical cyclones on the incidence of dengue and to explore the vulnerable populations in Guangzhou, China. Methods Weekly dengue case data, tropical cyclone and meteorological data during the tropical cyclones season (June to October) from 2015 to 2019 were collected for the study. A quasi-Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was conducted to quantify the association between tropical cyclones and dengue, controlling for meteorological factors, seasonality, and long-term trend. Proportion of dengue cases attributable to tropical cyclone exposure was calculated. The effect difference by sex and age groups was calculated to identify vulnerable populations. The tropical cyclones were classified into two levels to compare the effects of different grades of tropical cyclones on the dengue incidence. Results Tropical cyclones were associated with an increased number of dengue cases with the maximum risk ratio of 1.41 (95% confidence interval 1.17–1.69) in lag 0 week and cumulative risk ratio of 2.13 (95% confidence interval 1.28–3.56) in lag 0–4 weeks. The attributable fraction was 6.31% (95% empirical confidence interval 1.96–10.16%). Men and the elderly were more vulnerable to the effects of tropical cyclones than the others. The effects of typhoons were stronger than those of tropical storms among various subpopulations. Conclusions Our findings indicate that tropical cyclones may increase the incidence of dengue within a 4-week lag in Guangzhou, China, and the effects were more pronounced in men and the elderly. Precautionary measures should be taken with a focus on the identified vulnerable populations to control the transmission of dengue associated with tropical cyclones. Graphical Abstract ![]()
Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05486-2.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chuanxi Li
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.,Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, China
| | - Zhe Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.,Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, China
| | - Yu Yan
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.,Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, China
| | - Qiyong Liu
- Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, China.,State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Qi Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China. .,Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, China. .,Department of Epidemiology, IUF-Leibniz Research Institute for Environmental Medicine, Düsseldorf, Germany.
| | - Wei Ma
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China. .,Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, China.
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Abstract
Natural and human-made disasters can cause tremendous physical damage, societal change, and suffering. In addition to their effects on people, disasters have been shown to alter the microbial population in the area affected. Alterations for microbial populations can lead to new ecological interactions, with additional potentially adverse consequences for many species, including humans. Disaster-related stressors can be powerful forces for microbial selection. Studying microbial adaptation in disaster sites can reveal new biological processes, including mechanisms by which some microbes could become pathogenic and others could become beneficial (e.g., used for bioremediation). Here we survey examples of how disasters have affected microbiology and suggest that the topic of "disaster microbiology" is itself a new field of study. Given the accelerating pace of human-caused climate change and the increasing encroachment of the natural word by human activities, it is likely that this area of research will become increasingly relevant to the broader field of microbiology. Since disaster microbiology is a broad term open to interpretation, we propose criteria for what phenomena fall under its scope. The basic premise is that there must be a disaster that causes a change in the environment, which then causes an alteration to microbes (either a physical or biological adaptation), and that this adaptation must have additional ramifications.
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Zhang R, Zhang N, Sun W, Lin H, Liu Y, Zhang T, Tao M, Sun J, Ling F, Wang Z. Analysis of the effect of meteorological factors on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Taizhou City, China, 2008–2020. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:1097. [PMID: 35650552 PMCID: PMC9161505 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13423-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2022] [Accepted: 05/13/2022] [Indexed: 04/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is endemic in Zhejiang Province, China, while few studies have concentrated on the influence of meteorological factors on HFRS incidence in the area.
Methods
Data on HFRS and meteorological factors from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2020 in Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province were collected. Multivariate analysis was conducted to the relationship between meteorological factors including minimum temperatures, relative humidity, and cumulative rainfall with HFRS.
Results
The HFRS incidence peaked in November and December and it was negatively correlated with average and highest average temperatures. Compared with median of meteorological factors, the relative risks (RR) of weekly average temperature at 12 ℃, weekly highest temperature at 18 ℃relative humidity at 40%, and cumulative rainfall at 240 mm were most significant and RRs were 1.41 (95% CI: 1.09–1.82), 1.32 (95% CI: 1.05–1.66), 2.18 (95% CI: 1.16–4.07), and 1.91 (95% CI: 1.16–2.73), respectively. Average temperature, precipitation, relative humidity had interactions on HFRS and the risk of HFRS occurrence increased with the decrease of average temperature and the increase of precipitation.
Conclusion
Our study results are indicative of the association of environmental factors with the HFRS incidence, probable recommendation could be use of environmental factors as early warning signals for initiating the control measure and response.
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Li C, Zhao Q, Zhao Z, Liu Q, Ma W. The association between tropical cyclones and dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta, China during 2013-2018: A time-stratified case-crossover study. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009776. [PMID: 34499666 PMCID: PMC8454958 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009776] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2021] [Revised: 09/21/2021] [Accepted: 08/28/2021] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Studies have shown that tropical cyclones are associated with several infectious diseases, while very few evidence has demonstrated the relationship between tropical cyclones and dengue fever. This study aimed to examine the potential impact of tropical cyclones on dengue fever incidence in the Pearl River Delta, China. Methods Data on daily dengue fever incidence, occurrence of tropical cyclones and meteorological factors were collected between June and October, 2013–2018 from nine cities in the Pearl River Delta. Multicollinearity of meteorological variables was examined via Spearman correlation, variables with strong correlation (r>0.7) were not included in the model simultaneously. A time-stratified case-crossover design combined with conditional Poisson regression model was performed to evaluate the association between tropical cyclones and dengue fever incidence. Stratified analyses were performed by intensity grades of tropical cyclones (tropical storm and typhoon), sex (male and female) and age-groups (<18, 18–59, ≥60 years). Results During the study period, 20 tropical cyclones occurred and 47,784 dengue fever cases were reported. Tropical cyclones were associated with an increased risk of dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta region, with the largest relative risk of 1.62 with the 95% confidence interval (1.45–1.80) occurring on the lag 5 day. The strength of association was greater and lasted longer for typhoon than for tropical storm. There was no difference in effect estimates between males and females. However, individuals aged over 60 years were more vulnerable than others. Conclusions Tropical cyclones are associated with increased risk of local dengue fever incidence in south China, with the elderly more vulnerable than other population subgroups. Health protective strategies should be developed to reduce the potential risk of dengue epidemic after tropical cyclones. Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne tropical infectious disease, has been increasingly serious in recent decades, causing great healthcare burden in low-latitude regions and countries. Aedes is the vector of dengue fever, particularly sensitive to climatic conditions during all stages of the life cycle. Numerous epidemiological studies have demonstrated the association between dengue fever and meteorological factors (e.g., temperature, precipitation and relative humidity). Tropical cyclones are a common extreme weather events in the low latitude and have been associated with the outbreak of several infectious diseases. However, the impact of tropical cyclones on the incidence of dengue fever has not been well clarified. In this study, we explored the association between tropical cyclones and dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta region, China. The results showed that the local incidence of dengue fever was substantially associated with tropical cyclones over a certain lag period, with the effect estimate greater for stronger tropical cyclones. The elderly was more vulnerable than any other population subgroups. The findings highlighted the importance of developing public health surveillance, preparedness, and response targeting the outbreak of dengue fever during the tropical cyclone season.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chuanxi Li
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.,Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, China
| | - Qi Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.,Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, China
| | - Zhe Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.,Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, China
| | - Qiyong Liu
- Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, China.,State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Wei Ma
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.,Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, China
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Coalson JE, Anderson EJ, Santos EM, Madera Garcia V, Romine JK, Luzingu JK, Dominguez B, Richard DM, Little AC, Hayden MH, Ernst KC. The Complex Epidemiological Relationship between Flooding Events and Human Outbreaks of Mosquito-Borne Diseases: A Scoping Review. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2021; 129:96002. [PMID: 34582261 PMCID: PMC8478154 DOI: 10.1289/ehp8887] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2020] [Revised: 08/10/2021] [Accepted: 08/19/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of flooding events. Although rainfall is highly correlated with mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) in humans, less research focuses on understanding the impact of flooding events on disease incidence. This lack of research presents a significant gap in climate change-driven disease forecasting. OBJECTIVES We conducted a scoping review to assess the strength of evidence regarding the potential relationship between flooding and MBD and to determine knowledge gaps. METHODS PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were searched through 31 December 2020 and supplemented with review of citations in relevant publications. Studies on rainfall were included only if the operationalization allowed for distinction of unusually heavy rainfall events. Data were abstracted by disease (dengue, malaria, or other) and stratified by post-event timing of disease assessment. Studies that conducted statistical testing were summarized in detail. RESULTS From 3,008 initial results, we included 131 relevant studies (dengue n = 45 , malaria n = 61 , other MBD n = 49 ). Dengue studies indicated short-term (< 1 month ) decreases and subsequent (1-4 month) increases in incidence. Malaria studies indicated post-event incidence increases, but the results were mixed, and the temporal pattern was less clear. Statistical evidence was limited for other MBD, though findings suggest that human outbreaks of Murray Valley encephalitis, Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus, Rift Valley fever, and Japanese encephalitis may follow flooding. DISCUSSION Flooding is generally associated with increased incidence of MBD, potentially following a brief decrease in incidence for some diseases. Methodological inconsistencies significantly limit direct comparison and generalizability of study results. Regions with established MBD and weather surveillance should be leveraged to conduct multisite research to a) standardize the quantification of relevant flooding, b) study nonlinear relationships between rainfall and disease, c) report outcomes at multiple lag periods, and d) investigate interacting factors that modify the likelihood and severity of outbreaks across different settings. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8887.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jenna E. Coalson
- Center for Insect Science, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | | | - Ellen M. Santos
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Valerie Madera Garcia
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - James K. Romine
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Joy K. Luzingu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Brian Dominguez
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Danielle M. Richard
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Ashley C. Little
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Mary H. Hayden
- National Institute for Human Resilience, University of Colorado Colorado Springs, Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA
| | - Kacey C. Ernst
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
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11
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Talukder B, van Loon GW, Hipel KW, Chiotha S, Orbinski J. Health impacts of climate change on smallholder farmers. One Health 2021; 13:100258. [PMID: 34027006 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2021.100258] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2020] [Revised: 04/26/2021] [Accepted: 04/26/2021] [Indexed: 10/21/2022] Open
Abstract
The health of smallholder farmers is crucial for ensuring food and nutritional security for two billion people. However, their health is in jeopardy for several reasons including challenges from climate change impacts. Using a narrative literature review supported by field observations and informal interviews with key informants in India, Bangladesh and Malawi, this paper identifies and discusses the health impacts of climate change under four categories: (i) communicable diseases, (ii) non-communicable diseases, (iii) mental health, and (iv) occupational health, safety and other health issues. The health impacts of climate change on smallholder farmers will hamper the realization of many of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, and a series of recommendations are made to regional and country governments to address the increasing health impacts of accelerating climate change among smallholder farmers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Byomkesh Talukder
- Dahdaleh Institute for Global Health Research, York University, Canada
| | - Gary W van Loon
- School of Environmental Studies, Queen's University, Kingston, Canada
| | - Keith W Hipel
- System Engineering Department, Waterloo University; Canada Centre for International Governance Innovation Coordinator, Conflict Analysis Group, Waterloo, Canada
| | | | - James Orbinski
- Dahdaleh Institute for Global Health Research, York University, Canada.,Faculty of Health, York University, Canada
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12
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Assimilation of Multi-Source Precipitation Data over Southeast China Using a Nonparametric Framework. REMOTE SENSING 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/rs13061057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The accuracy of the rain distribution could be enhanced by assimilating the remotely sensed and gauge-based precipitation data. In this study, a new nonparametric general regression (NGR) framework was proposed to assimilate satellite- and gauge-based rainfall data over southeast China (SEC). The assimilated rainfall data in Meiyu and Typhoon seasons, in different months, as well as during rainfall events with various rainfall intensities were evaluated to assess the performance of this proposed framework. In rainy season (Meiyu and Typhoon seasons), the proposed method obtained the estimates with smaller total absolute deviations than those of the other satellite products (i.e., 3B42RT and 3B42V7). In general, the NGR framework outperformed the original satellites generally on root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), especially on Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE). At monthly scale, the performance of assimilated data by NGR was better than those of satellite-based products in most months, by exhibiting larger correlation coefficients (CC) in 6 months, smaller RMSE and MAE in at least 9 months and larger NSE in 9 months, respectively. Moreover, the estimates from NGR have been proven to perform better than the two satellite-based products with respect to the simulation of the gauge observations under different rainfall scenarios (i.e., light rain, moderate rain and heavy rain).
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13
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Cai W, Zhang C, Suen HP, Ai S, Bai Y, Bao J, Chen B, Cheng L, Cui X, Dai H, Di Q, Dong W, Dou D, Fan W, Fan X, Gao T, Geng Y, Guan D, Guo Y, Hu Y, Hua J, Huang C, Huang H, Huang J, Jiang T, Jiao K, Kiesewetter G, Klimont Z, Lampard P, Li C, Li Q, Li R, Li T, Lin B, Lin H, Liu H, Liu Q, Liu X, Liu Y, Liu Z, Liu Z, Liu Z, Lou S, Lu C, Luo Y, Ma W, McGushin A, Niu Y, Ren C, Ren Z, Ruan Z, Schöpp W, Su J, Tu Y, Wang J, Wang Q, Wang Y, Wang Y, Watts N, Xiao C, Xie Y, Xiong H, Xu M, Xu B, Xu L, Yang J, Yang L, Yu L, Yue Y, Zhang S, Zhang Z, Zhao J, Zhao L, Zhao M, Zhao Z, Zhou J, Gong P. The 2020 China report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change. Lancet Public Health 2021; 6:e64-e81. [PMID: 33278345 PMCID: PMC7966675 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(20)30256-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2020] [Revised: 10/05/2020] [Accepted: 10/14/2020] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Wenjia Cai
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Chi Zhang
- Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Hoi Ping Suen
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Siqi Ai
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yuqi Bai
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Junzhe Bao
- College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Bin Chen
- School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Liangliang Cheng
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xueqin Cui
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Hancheng Dai
- College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Qian Di
- Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Wenxuan Dong
- Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | | | - Weicheng Fan
- Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Xing Fan
- Institute of Environment and Ecology, Shandong Normal University, Jinan, China
| | - Tong Gao
- School of Business, Shandong Normal University, Jinan, China
| | - Yang Geng
- School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Dabo Guan
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; The Bartlett School of Construction and Project Management, Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Yafei Guo
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yixin Hu
- Department of Statistics and Data Science, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
| | - Junyi Hua
- Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Cunrui Huang
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Hong Huang
- Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Jianbin Huang
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Tingting Jiang
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Kedi Jiao
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Gregor Kiesewetter
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Zbigniew Klimont
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Pete Lampard
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Chuanxi Li
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Qiwei Li
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Ruiqi Li
- Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Tiantian Li
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Borong Lin
- School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Hualiang Lin
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Huan Liu
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaobo Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yufu Liu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Zhao Liu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Zhidong Liu
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Zhu Liu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Shuhan Lou
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Chenxi Lu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Yong Luo
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Wei Ma
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China; Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Alice McGushin
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Yanlin Niu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Chao Ren
- Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Zhehao Ren
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Zengliang Ruan
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Wolfgang Schöpp
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Jing Su
- School of Humanities, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Ying Tu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Jie Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Qiong Wang
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yaqi Wang
- People's Bank of China School of Finance, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Research Center for Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Yu Wang
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Nick Watts
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Congxi Xiao
- School of Computer Science and Technology, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China
| | - Yang Xie
- School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, China
| | - Hui Xiong
- Rutgers Business School, Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Mingfang Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Bing Xu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Lei Xu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jun Yang
- Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Lianping Yang
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Le Yu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Yujuan Yue
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Shaohui Zhang
- School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, China; Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | | | - Jiyao Zhao
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Liang Zhao
- The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Mengzhen Zhao
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Zhe Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | | | - Peng Gong
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
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14
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Wu X, Liu J, Li C, Yin J. Impact of climate change on dysentery: Scientific evidences, uncertainty, modeling and projections. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 714:136702. [PMID: 31981871 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136702] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2019] [Revised: 01/06/2020] [Accepted: 01/13/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Dysentery is water-borne and food-borne infectious disease and its incidence is sensitive to climate change. Although the impact of climate change on dysentery is being studied in specific areas, a systematic review is lacking. We searched the worldwide literature using three sets of keywords and six databases. We identified and selected 98 studies during 1866-2019 and reviewed the relevant findings. Climate change, including long-term variations in factors, such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity, and short-term variations in extreme weather events, such as floods and drought, mostly had a harmful impact on dysentery incidence. However, some uncertainty over the exact effects of climate factors exists, specifically in the different indexes for the same climate factor, various determinant indexes for different dysentery burdens, and divergent effects for different population groups. These complicate the accurate quantification of such impacts. We generalized two types of methods: sensitivity analysis, used to detect the sensitivity of dysentery to climate change, including Pearson's and Spearman's correlations; and mathematical models, which quantify the impact of climate on dysentery, and include models that examine the associations (including negative binomial regression models) and quantify correlations (including single generalized additive models and mixed models). Projection studies mostly predict disease risks, and some predict disease incidence based on climate models under RCP 4.5. Since some geographic heterogeneity exists in the climate-dysentery relationship, modeling and projection of dysentery incidence on a national or global scale remain challenging. The reviewed results have implications for the present and future. Current research should be extended to select appropriate and robust climate-dysentery models, reasonable disease burden measure, and appropriate climate models and scenarios. We recommend future studies focus on qualitative investigation of the mechanism involved in the impact of climate on dysentery, and accurate projection of dysentery incidence, aided by advancing accuracy of extreme weather forecasting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoxu Wu
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
| | - Jianing Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Chenlu Li
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Jie Yin
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
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15
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Chan EYY, Ho JY, Hung HHY, Liu S, Lam HCY. Health impact of climate change in cities of middle-income countries: the case of China. Br Med Bull 2019; 130:5-24. [PMID: 31070715 PMCID: PMC6587073 DOI: 10.1093/bmb/ldz011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2018] [Revised: 01/31/2019] [Accepted: 04/23/2019] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND This review examines the human health impact of climate change in China. Through reviewing available research findings under four major climate change phenomena, namely extreme temperature, altered rainfall pattern, rise of sea level and extreme weather events, relevant implications for other middle-income population with similar contexts will be synthesized. SOURCES OF DATA Sources of data included bilingual peer-reviewed articles published between 2000 and 2018 in PubMed, Google Scholar and China Academic Journals Full-text Database. AREAS OF AGREEMENT The impact of temperature on mortality outcomes was the most extensively studied, with the strongest cause-specific mortality risks between temperature and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. The geographical focuses of the studies indicated variations in health risks and impacts of different climate change phenomena across the country. AREAS OF CONTROVERSY While rainfall-related studies predominantly focus on its impact on infectious and vector-borne diseases, consistent associations were not often found. GROWING POINTS Mental health outcomes of climate change had been gaining increasing attention, particularly in the context of extreme weather events. The number of projection studies on the long-term impact had been growing. AREAS TIMELY FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH The lack of studies on the health implications of rising sea levels and on comorbidity and injury outcomes warrants immediate attention. Evidence is needed to understand health impacts on vulnerable populations living in growing urbanized cities and urban enclaves, in particular migrant workers. Location-specific climate-health outcome thresholds (such as temperature-mortality threshold) will be needed to support evidence-based clinical management plans and health impact mitigation strategies to protect vulnerable communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily Y Y Chan
- Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC), Division of Global Health and Humanitarian Medicine, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.,Division of Global Health and Humanitarian Medicine, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.,Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.,François-Xavier Bagnoud Center for Health & Human Rights, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Janice Y Ho
- Division of Global Health and Humanitarian Medicine, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Heidi H Y Hung
- Division of Global Health and Humanitarian Medicine, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Sida Liu
- Division of Global Health and Humanitarian Medicine, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Holly C Y Lam
- Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC), Division of Global Health and Humanitarian Medicine, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
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16
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Fouque F, Reeder JC. Impact of past and on-going changes on climate and weather on vector-borne diseases transmission: a look at the evidence. Infect Dis Poverty 2019; 8:51. [PMID: 31196187 PMCID: PMC6567422 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-019-0565-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2018] [Accepted: 06/03/2019] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The climate variables that directly influence vector-borne diseases’ ecosystems are mainly temperature and rainfall. This is not only because the vectors bionomics are strongly dependent upon these variables, but also because most of the elements of the systems are impacted, such as the host behavior and development and the pathogen amplification. The impact of the climate changes on the transmission patterns of these diseases is not easily understood, since many confounding factors are acting together. Consequently, knowledge of these impacts is often based on hypothesis derived from mathematical models. Nevertheless, some direct evidences can be found for several vector-borne diseases. Main body Evidences of the impact of climate change are available for malaria, arbovirus diseases such as dengue, and many other parasitic and viral diseases such as Rift Valley Fever, Japanese encephalitis, human African trypanosomiasis and leishmaniasis. The effect of temperature and rainfall change as well as extreme events, were found to be the main cause for outbreaks and are alarming the global community. Among the main driving factors, climate strongly influences the geographical distribution of insect vectors, which is rapidly changing due to climate change. Further, in both models and direct evidences, climate change is seen to be affecting vector-borne diseases more strikingly in fringe of different climatic areas often in the border of transmission zones, which were once free of these diseases with human populations less immune and more receptive. The impact of climate change is also more devastating because of the unpreparedness of Public Health systems to provide adequate response to the events, even when climatic warning is available. Although evidences are strong at the regional and local levels, the studies on impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases and health are producing contradictory results at the global level. Conclusions In this paper we discuss the current state of the results and draw on evidences from malaria, dengue and other vector-borne diseases to illustrate the state of current thinking and outline the need for further research to inform our predictions and response. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s40249-019-0565-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Florence Fouque
- UNICEF/UNDP/ World Bank/WHO Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), 20 Avenue Appia, 1211, Geneva 27, Switzerland.
| | - John C Reeder
- UNICEF/UNDP/ World Bank/WHO Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), 20 Avenue Appia, 1211, Geneva 27, Switzerland
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17
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Zheng L, Ren HY, Shi RH, Lu L. Spatiotemporal characteristics and primary influencing factors of typical dengue fever epidemics in China. Infect Dis Poverty 2019; 8:24. [PMID: 30922405 PMCID: PMC6440137 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-019-0533-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2018] [Accepted: 03/12/2019] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dengue fever (DF) is a common mosquito-borne viral infectious disease in the world, and increasingly severe DF epidemics in China have seriously affected people's health in recent years. Thus, investigating spatiotemporal patterns and potential influencing factors of DF epidemics in typical regions is critical to consolidate effective prevention and control measures for these regional epidemics. METHODS A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to identify potential contributing factors that influence spatiotemporal epidemic patterns in typical DF epidemic regions of China (e.g., the Pearl River Delta [PRD] and the Border of Yunnan and Myanmar [BYM]). In terms of influencing factors, environmental factors including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), temperature, precipitation, and humidity, in conjunction with socioeconomic factors, such as population density (Pop), road density, land-use, and gross domestic product, were employed. RESULTS DF epidemics in the PRD and BYM exhibit prominent spatial variations at 4 km and 3 km grid scales, characterized by significant spatial clustering over the Guangzhou-Foshan, Dehong, and Xishuangbanna areas. The GAM that integrated the Pop-urban land ratio (ULR)-NDVI-humidity-temperature factors for the PRD and the ULR-Road density-NDVI-temperature-water land ratio-precipitation factors for the BYM performed well in terms of overall accuracy, with Akaike Information Criterion values of 61 859.89 and 826.65, explaining a total variance of 83.4 and 97.3%, respectively. As indicated, socioeconomic factors have a stronger influence on DF epidemics than environmental factors in the study area. Among these factors, Pop (PRD) and ULR (BYM) were the socioeconomic factors explaining the largest variance in regional epidemics, whereas NDVI was the environmental factor explaining the largest variance in both regions. In addition, the common factors (ULR, NDVI, and temperature) in these two regions exhibited different effects on regional epidemics. CONCLUSIONS The spatiotemporal patterns of DF in the PRD and BYM are influenced by environmental and socioeconomic factors, the socioeconomic factors may play a significant role in DF epidemics in cases where environmental factors are suitable and differ only slightly throughout an area. Thus, prevention and control resources should be fully allocated by referring to the spatial patterns of primary influencing factors to better consolidate the prevention and control measures for DF epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lan Zheng
- Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China.,State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.,School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China.,Joint Laboratory for Environmental Remote Sensing and Data Assimilation, East China Normal University and Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai, China
| | - Hong-Yan Ren
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
| | - Run-He Shi
- Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China. .,School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China. .,Joint Laboratory for Environmental Remote Sensing and Data Assimilation, East China Normal University and Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai, China.
| | - Liang Lu
- Department of Vector Biology and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Natural Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
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18
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Chan EYY, Man AYT, Lam HCY. Scientific evidence on natural disasters and health emergency and disaster risk management in Asian rural-based area. Br Med Bull 2019; 129:91-105. [PMID: 30753325 PMCID: PMC6413858 DOI: 10.1093/bmb/ldz002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2018] [Revised: 01/04/2019] [Accepted: 01/11/2019] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Disaster epidemiological studies indicate that Asia has the highest frequency of natural disasters. Rural communities are heavily impacted by natural disasters and have different healthcare needs to urban ones. Referencing Asian countries, this paper's objective is to provide an overview of health impacts and the current evidence for designing programmes and policies related to rural health emergency and disaster risk management (health-EDRM). SOURCES OF DATA This paper uses published English-only reports and papers retrieved from PubMed, Google Scholar, Embase, Medline and PsycINFO on rural disaster and emergency responses and relief, health impact and disease patterns in Asia (January 2000-January 2018). AREAS OF AGREEMENT Earthquakes are the most studied natural disasters in rural communities. The medical burden and health needs of rural communities were most commonly reported among populations of extreme age. Most of the existing research evidence for rural interventions was reported in China. There lacks published peer-reviewed reports of programme impacts on personal and community preparedness. AREAS OF CONTROVERSY There is a lack of evidence-based health-EDRM interventions to evaluate implementation effectiveness in rural areas despite vast volumes of health-related disaster literature. GROWING POINTS Climate change-related disasters are increasing in frequency and severity. Evidence is needed for disaster risk reduction interventions to address the health risks specific to rural populations. AREAS TIMELY FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH To support global policy development, urgent evidence is needed on the intervention effectiveness, long-term health outcomes, local and cultural relevance as well as sustainability of health relief produced by Health-EDRM programmes in rural areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Y Y Chan
- Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC), Division of Global Health and Humanitarian Medicine, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Division of Global Health and Humanitarian Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- François-Xavier Bagnoud Center for Health & Human Rights, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - A Y T Man
- Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC), Division of Global Health and Humanitarian Medicine, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Division of Global Health and Humanitarian Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - H C Y Lam
- Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC), Division of Global Health and Humanitarian Medicine, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Division of Global Health and Humanitarian Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
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19
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Li Y, Liu X, Wang L. Modelling the Transmission Dynamics and Control of Mumps in Mainland China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2017; 15:E33. [PMID: 29278378 PMCID: PMC5800133 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph15010033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2017] [Revised: 12/17/2017] [Accepted: 12/22/2017] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Mumps is a common childhood viral disease and children have been vaccinated throughout the world since 1967. The incidence of mumps has increased with more than 300,000 young people infected with mumps annually in mainland China since 2005. Therefore, we designed and analyzed long-term mumps surveillance data in an SVEILR (susceptible-vaccinated-exposed-severely infectious-mildly infectious-recovered) dynamic transmission model with optimized parameter values to describe the dynamics of mumps infections in China. There were 18.02% of mumps infected young adults seeking medical advice. The vaccine coverage has been insufficient in China. Young adults with frequent contact and mild infection were identified as a major driver of mumps epidemics. The reproduction number of mumps was determined 4.28 in China. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number and the endemic equilibrium was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of mumps control measures. We propose to increase the vaccine coverage and make two doses of MMR (Measles, mumps and rubella) vaccines freely available in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yong Li
- Key Laboratory of Eco-Environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), School of Mathematics and Statistics, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China.
- School of Information and Mathematics, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 434023, China.
| | - Xianning Liu
- Key Laboratory of Eco-Environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), School of Mathematics and Statistics, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China.
| | - Lianwen Wang
- Department of Mathematics, Hubei University for Nationalities, Enshi 445000, China.
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