Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatial-Temporal Distribution of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Chongqing, China, 2009-2016

Non-linear association between daily mean temperature and children's hand foot and mouth disease in Chongqing, China

Chongqing was seriously affected by hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), but the relationships between daily mean temperature and the incidence of HFMD remain unclear. This study used distributed lag nonlinear model to evaluate the effect of daily mean temperature on the incidence of HFMD in children aged < 5 years in Chongqing. Daily HFMD data from 2012 to 2019 in Chongqing were retrieved from the notifiable infectious disease surveillance system. A total of 413,476 HFMD cases aged < 5 years were reported in Chongqing from 2012 to 2019. The exposure-response curve of daily mean temperature and daily HFMD cases was wavy-shaped. The relative risks (RRs) increased as daily mean temperature below 5.66 °C or above 9.43 °C, with two peaks at 16.10 °C and 26.68 °C. The RRs reached the highest when the daily mean temperature at 26.68 °C on the current day (RR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.09-1.32), followed by the daily mean temperature at 16.10 °C at lag 5 days (RR = 1.07, 95% CI 1.05-1.08). The RRs for girls and daycare children were much higher than those for boys and scattered children, respectively. Taken together, daily mean temperature has strong effect on HFMD in children aged < 5 years old in Chongqing, particularly for girls and daycare children.

Research on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence forecasting using hybrid model in mainland China

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to construct a more accurate model to forecast the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in mainland China from January 2008 to December 2019 and to provide a reference for the surveillance and early warning of HFMD.

METHODS

We collected data on the incidence of HFMD in mainland China between January 2008 and December 2019. The SARIMA, SARIMA-BPNN, and SARIMA-PSO-BPNN hybrid models were used to predict the incidence of HFMD. The prediction performance was compared using the mean absolute error(MAE), mean squared error(MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and correlation analysis.

RESULTS

The incidence of HFMD in mainland China from January 2008 to December 2019 showed fluctuating downward trends with clear seasonality and periodicity. The optimal SARIMA model was SARIMA(1,0,1)(2,1,2)_[12], with Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Schwarz information criterion (BIC) values of this model were 638.72, 661.02, respectively. The optimal SARIMA-BPNN hybrid model was a 3-layer BPNN neural network with nodes of 1, 10, and 1 in the input, hidden, and output layers, and the R-squared, MAE, and RMSE values were 0.78, 3.30, and 4.15, respectively. For the optimal SARIMA-PSO-BPNN hybrid model, the number of particles is 10, the acceleration coefficients c1 and c2 are both 1, the inertia weight is 1, the probability of change is 0.95, and the values of R-squared, MAE, and RMSE are 0.86, 2.89, and 3.57, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with the SARIMA and SARIMA-BPNN hybrid models, the SARIMA-PSO-BPNN model can effectively forecast the change in observed HFMD incidence, which can serve as a reference for the prevention and control of HFMD.

Epidemiological and etiological characteristics of mild hand, foot and mouth disease in children under 7 years old, Nanjing, China, 2010-2019

Background

Mild hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) cases make up a relatively high proportion of HFMD while have often been overlooked. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of mild HFMD in Nanjing.

Methods

Data on mild HFMD cases, during 2010–2019 in Nanjing, were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. This study mainly focused on mild cases aged < 7 years. Descriptive analysis was used to summarize epidemiological and etiological characteristics of mild cases. Flexible spatial scan statistic was used to detect spatial clusters of mild cases.

Results

A total of 175,339 mild cases aged < 7 years were reported, accounting for 94.4% of all mild cases. There was a higher average annual incidence of mild HFMD in children aged < 7 years (4,428 cases/100,000) compared with children aged ≥ 7 years (14 cases/100,000, P < 0.001), and especially children aged 1-year-old (7,908 cases/100,000). Mild cases showed semi-annual peaks of activity, including a major peak (April to July) and a minor peak (September to November). The average annual incidence was higher in males (5,040 cases/100,000) than females (3,755 cases/100,000). Based on the cumulative reported cases, the most likely cluster was detected, including Yuhuatai District, Jiangning District, Jiangbei new Area, and Pukou District. The annual distribution of enterovirus serotypes showed a significant difference. During 2010–2016, Enterovirus 71 (EV71), Coxsackievirus A16 (Cox A16), and other non-EV71/Cox A16 EVs, accounted for 29.1%, 34.6%, 36.3% of all the enterovirus test positive cases, respectively. Moreover, during 2017–2019, Cox A6, Cox A16, EV71, and other non-EV71/Cox A16/Cox A6 EVs, accounted for 47.3%, 32.5%, 10.7%, 9.5%, respectively.

Conclusions

Children under 7 years old are at higher risk of mild HFMD. Regions with high risk are mainly concentrated in the areas surrounding central urban areas. Cox A16 and Cox A6 became the dominant serotypes and they alternated or were co-epidemic. Our findings could provide valuable information for improving the regional surveillance, prevention and control strategies of HFMD.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13690-022-00974-4.

Epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease clusters during 2016-2020 in Beijing, China

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an infectious disease that usually occurs in children under 5 years and is caused by a group of enteroviruses. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD clusters from 2016 to 2020 in Tongzhou, Beijing, and explored the genetic evolution of CV-A6. The HFMD case information came from the Information System of China Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as well as the clusters information verification and on-site investigation by Tongzhou CDC. ARIMA model was applied to forecast HFMD clusters in 2020. Totally 440 HFMD clusters were reported during 2016-2020. The large peak of the clusters occurred in April-July, followed by a smaller peak in October-November during 2016-2019. However, in 2020, the two peaks disappeared. The main site of HFMD clusters was childcare facilities (65.0%) and mostly occurred in urban areas (46.1%). The detection rate of CV-A6 was the highest (36.1%), and cases with CV-A6 infection had the highest proportion of fever. The phylogenetic analysis based on CV-A6 VP1 gene showed that the predominant strains mainly located in Group F during 2016-2017, while changed into Group A during 2018-2020. HFMD clusters presented seasonality, mainly located in childcare facilities and urban areas, and CV-A6 was the major causative agent. Targeted prevention and control measures should be taken to reduce HFMD clusters.

The effect of daily mean temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease and the source of regional heterogeneity in Chongqing, China, 2010-2019

BACKGROUND

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a serious infectious disease which has become a public health problem. A multi-regional study was conducted in this study to explore the relationship between temperature and HFMD in different regions and the source of heterogeneity, and further detect the effect modifiers such as socio-economic factors, medical and health factors and meteorological factors.

METHODS

The data on daily reported HFMD cases and meteorological data from 2010 to 2019 in Chongqing were collected. Thirty-eight districts and counties of Chongqing were divided into 6 regions. The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was applied to assess the effect of daily mean temperature on HFMD at region level with the pooled effect estimates from multivariate meta-regression model analysis. Stratified analyses by gender, age and children's type were also conducted. Potential modifiers were considered in meta regression to explore the source of heterogeneity.

RESULTS

There were nonlinear relationships with an inverted V-shape between temperature and HFMD. A maximum cumulative relative risk (CRR) of 1.22 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.12-1.34) peaked at 23.8 °C, and the risk appeared immediately and lasted for the whole 14 days. Compared with other groups, warm temperature had a stronger effect on children aged 0-1 and scattered children, while cold temperature had a stronger effect on female, children aged 3-6 and childcare children with an M-shape. We found that socio-economic factors, medical health factors and meteorological factors were significantly associated with heterogeneity. Density of medical technical personnel, urbanization rate and density of health care institutions were the main modifiers for explaining heterogeneity of 26.10%, 24.90% and 24.86% respectively which were revealed by meta-analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a significant nonlinear correlation between temperature and HFMD. Compared with other groups, children aged 0-1 and scattered children were more susceptible to warm temperature, while female, children aged 3-6 and childcare children were more susceptible to cold temperature. Socio-economic factors, medical health factors and meteorological factors may be the source of the heterogeneity. Therefore, local governments should consider different temperature-HFMD relationships between different regions and populations when formulating appropriate preventive measures.

Risk Factors for Severe Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease in China: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: This study aimed to identify potential risk factors for severe hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD). Methods: The PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, Sinomed, WanFang, CNKI, and VIP databases were searched (up to August 2021). Results: Twenty-nine studies (9,241 and 927,355 patients with severe HFMD and controls, respectively; all from China) were included. EV71 was associated with higher odds of severe HFMD compared with other agents (OR = 4.44, 95%CI: 3.12-6.33, p < 0.001). Being home-raised (OR = 1.99, 95%CI: 1.59-2.50, p < 0.001), higher number of children in the family (OR = 2.09, 95%CI: 1.93-2.27, p < 0.001), poor hand hygiene (OR = 2.74, 95%CI: 1.78-4.23, p < 0.001), and no breastfeeding (OR = 2.01, 95%CI: 1.45-2.79, p < 0.001) were risk factors for severe HFMD. First consulting to a district-level or above hospital (OR = 0.34, 95%CI: 0.25-0.45, p < 0.001) and diagnosis of HFMD at baseline (OR = 0.17, 95%CI: 0.13-0.24, p < 0.001) were protective factors against severe HFMD. Fever, long fever duration, vomiting, lethargy, leukocytosis, tic, and convulsions were each associated with severe HFMD (all p < 0.05), while rash was not. Conclusions: EV71, lifestyle habits, frequent hospital visits, and symptoms are risk factors for severe HFMD in children in China, while early diagnosis and admission to higher-level hospitals are protective factors.

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal analysis of hand-foot-mouth diseases from 2010 to 2019 in Zibo city, Shandong, China

Background

Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is a global public health issues, especially in China. It has threat the health of children under 5 years old. The early recognition of high-risk districts and understanding of epidemic characteristics can facilitate health sectors to prevent the occurrence of HFMD effectively.

Methods

Descriptive analysis was used to summarize epidemic characteristics, and the spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time scan analysis were utilized to explore distribution pattern of HFMD and identify hot spots with statistical significance. The result was presented in ArcMap.

Results

A total of 52,095 HFMD cases were collected in Zibo city from 1 Jan 2010 to 31 Dec 2019. The annual average incidence was 129.72/100,000. The distribution of HFMD was a unimodal trend, with peak from April to September. The most susceptible age group was children under 5 years old (92.46%), and the male-to-female ratio is 1.60: 1. The main clusters were identified in Zhangdian District from 12 April 2010 to 18 September 2012. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the global spatial correlation in Zibo were no statistical significance, except in 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2018. Cold spots were gathered in Boshan county and Linzi district, while hot spots only in Zhangdian District in 2018, but other years were no significance.

Conclusion

Hot spots mainly concentrated in the central and surrounding city of Zibo city. We suggest that imminent public health planning and resource allocation should be focused within those areas.

Spatiotemporal characters and influence factors of hand, foot and mouth epidemic in Xinjiang, China

Hand, foot and mouth (HFM) disease is a common childhood illness. The paper aims to capture the spatiotemporal characters, and investigate the influence factors of the HFM epidemic in 15 regions of Xinjiang province from 2008 to 2017, China. Descriptive statistical analysis shows that the children aged 0-5 years have a higher HFM incidence, mostly boys. The male-female ratio is 1.5:1. Through the scanning method, we obtain the first cluster high-risk areas. The cluster time is usually from May to August every year. A spatiotemporal model is proposed to analyze the impact of meteorological factors on HFM disease. Comparing with the spatial model, the model is more effective in terms of R², AIC, deviation, and mean-square error. Among meteorological factors, the number of HFM cases generally increases with the intensity of rainfall. As the temperature increases, there are more HFM patients. Some regions are mostly influenced by wind speed. Further, another spatiotemporal model is introduced to investigate the relationship between HFM disease and socioeconomic factors. The results show that socioeconomic factors have significant influence on the disease. In most areas, the risk of HFM disease tends to rise with the increase of the gross domestic product, the ratios of urban population and tertiary industry. The incidence is closely related to the number of beds and population density in some regions. The higher the ratio of primary school, the lower the number of HFM cases. Based on the above analysis, it is the key measure to prevent and control the spread of the HFM epidemic in high-risk areas, and influence factors should not be ignored.

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease and Their Influencing Factors in Urumqi, China

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) remains a serious health threat to young children. Urumqi is one of the most severely affected cities in northwestern China. This study aims to identify the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of HFMD, and explore the relationships between driving factors and HFMD in Urumqi, Xinjiang.

METHODS

HFMD surveillance data from 2014 to 2018 were obtained from the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The center of gravity and geographical detector model were used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of HFMD and identify the association between these characteristics and socioeconomic and meteorological factors.

RESULTS

A total of 10,725 HFMD cases were reported in Urumqi during the study period. Spatially, the morbidity number of HFMD differed regionally and the density was higher in urban districts than in rural districts. Overall, the development of HFMD in Urumqi expanded toward the southeast. Temporally, we observed that the risk of HFMD peaked from June to July. Furthermore, socioeconomic and meteorological factors, including population density, road density, GDP, temperature and precipitation were significantly associated with the occurrence of HFMD.

CONCLUSIONS

HFMD cases occurred in spatiotemporal clusters. Our findings showed strong associations between HFMD and socioeconomic and meteorological factors. We comprehensively considered the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and influencing factors of HFMD, and proposed some intervention strategies that may assist in predicting the morbidity number of HFMD.

Forecasting hand-foot-and-mouth disease cases using wavelet-based SARIMA-NNAR hybrid model

BACKGROUND

Hand-foot-and-mouth disease_(HFMD) is one of the most typical diseases in children that is associated with high morbidity. Reliable forecasting is crucial for prevention and control. Recently, hybrid models have become popular, and wavelet analysis has been widely performed. Better prediction accuracy may be achieved using wavelet-based hybrid models. Thus, our aim is to forecast number of HFMD cases with wavelet-based hybrid models.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We fitted a wavelet-based seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA)-neural network nonlinear autoregressive (NNAR) hybrid model with HFMD weekly cases from 2009 to 2016 in Zhengzhou, China. Additionally, a single SARIMA model, simplex NNAR model, and pure SARIMA-NNAR hybrid model were established for comparison and estimation.

RESULTS

The wavelet-based SARIMA-NNAR hybrid model demonstrates excellent performance whether in fitting or forecasting compared with other models. Its fitted and forecasting time series are similar to the actual observed time series.

CONCLUSIONS

The wavelet-based SARIMA-NNAR hybrid model fitted in this study is suitable for forecasting the number of HFMD cases. Hence, it will facilitate the prevention and control of HFMD.

Clinical, etiological and epidemiological investigations of hand, foot and mouth disease in southern Vietnam during 2015 - 2018

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) continues to challenge Asia with pandemic potential. In Vietnam, there have been two major outbreaks occurring during 2011-2012 (>200,000 hospitalizations and >200 deaths) and more recently in 2018 (>130,000 hospitalizations and 17 deaths). Given the high burden and the complex epidemic dynamics of HFMD, synthesizing its clinical and epidemiological data remains essential to inform the development of appropriate interventions and design public health measures. We report the results of a hospital-based study conducted during 2015-2018, covering the severe HFMD outbreak recently documented in Vietnam in 2018. The study was conducted at three major hospitals responsible for receiving HFMD patients from southern Vietnam with a population of over 40 million. A total of 19 enterovirus serotypes were detected in 1196 HFMD patients enrolled in the clinical study during 2015-2018, with enterovirus A71 (EV-A71), coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6), CV-A10 and CV-A16 being the major causes. Despite the emergence of coxsackieviruses, EV-A71 remains the leading cause of severe HFMD in Vietnam. EV-A71 was consistently detected at a higher frequency during the second half of the years. The emergence of EV-A71 subgenogroup C4 in late 2018 was preceded by its low activity during 2017-early 2018. Compared with EV-A71 subgenogroup B5, C4 was more likely to be associated with severe HFMD, representing the first report demonstrating the difference in clinical severity between subgenogroup C4 and B5, the two predominant EV-A71 subgenogroups causing HFMD worldwide. Our data have provided significant insights into important aspects of HFMD over four years (2015-2018) in Vietnam, and emphasize active surveillance for pathogen circulation remains essential to inform the local public health authorities in the development of appropriate intervention strategies to reduce the burden of this emerging infections. Multivalent vaccines are urgently needed to control HFMD.

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of severe hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) among children: a 6-year population-based study

Background

Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is considered to be self-limited, however, severe HFMD is a deadly threat for children worldwide, therefore, it is essential to define the clinical and epidemiologic characteristics of children with severe HFMD and identify the risk factors of death.

Methods

Between 2013 and 2018, children who diagnosed with severe HFMD from Chongqing, China were enrolled in this population-based study. A total of 459 severe HFMD children cases were identified during the study period, including 415 survivors and 44 fatal cases. Demographic, geographical, epidemiological and clinical data of the cases were acquired and analyzed.

Results

Risk factors of the death because of severe HFMD children included female, aged 1 ~ 3 years, enterovirus 71 infection, falling ill in winter, more than one children in home, being taken care of by grandparents, the caregivers’ education not more than 9 years, having fever more than 3 days, consciousness disorders, general weakness, vomiting, general weakness, abnormal pupillary light reflex, repeated cough, tachypnea, moist rales, white frothy sputum, pink frothy sputum, and cyanosis on lips or the whole body, tachycardia, arrhythmia, cold limbs, pale complexion, weakened pulse. (all p < 0.05). Spatial-temporal analysis detected high-value clusters, the most likely cluster located at rural countries in the northern parts of Chongqing, from January, 2015 to July, 2017. (p < 0.01). Besides, some urban districts were also found high incidence of severe HFMD cases according to the incidence maps.

Conclusions

The detection of clinical risk factors and the temporal, spatial and socio-demographic distribution epidemiological characteristics of severe HFMD contribute to the timely diagnosis and intervention, the results of this study can be the reference of further clinical and public health practice.

Epidemiological and aetiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Sichuan Province, China, 2011-2017

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) remains a threat to the Asia-Pacific region. The epidemiological characteristics and pathogen spectrum of HFMD vary with space and time. These variations are crucial for HFMD interventions but poorly understood in Sichuan Province, China, particularly after the introduction of the EV-A71 vaccine. Using descriptive methods, regression analyses, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and space-time scan statistics, we analysed the epidemiological and aetiological characteristics of HFMD surveillance data in Sichuan Province between 2011 and 2017 to identify spatio-temporal variations. The dominant serotypes of HFMD have changed from enterovirus 71 and coxsackievirus A16 to other enteroviruses since 2013. The seasonal pattern of HFMD showed two peaks generally occurring from April to July and November to December; however, the seasonal pattern varied by prefecture and enterovirus serotype. From 2011 to 2017, spatio-temporal clusters were increasingly concentrated in Chengdu, with several small clusters in northeast Sichuan. The clusters observed in southern Sichuan from 2011 to 2015 disappeared in 2016–2017. These findings highlight the importance of pathogen surveillance and vaccination strategies for HFMD interventions; future prevention and control of HFMD should focus on Chengdu and its vicinity.

Chromogranin A provides additional prognostic information in children with severe hand, foot, and mouth disease: A prospective observational study

OBJECTIVE

Severe hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is associated with high mortality in children, and persistent sympathetic activation is a common presentation. The aim of this study was to prospectively investigate serum chromogranin A (CHGA) levels and their prognostic role in this condition.

METHODS

Serum CHGA, creatine kinase myocardial band (CK-MB), serum D-dimer, norepinephrine, blood glucose, lactate, and C-reactive protein levels, white blood cell (WBC) counts, usage of vasopressors, pediatric risk of mortality Ⅲ (PRISM-Ⅲ) scores, and viral etiology were measured upon pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission. The correlation between clinical outcomes and the indicators listed above were analyzed, and the ability of CHGA as a biomarker to predict mortality was evaluated.

RESULTS

Serum CHGA levels were higher in the non-survivors group than in the survivors group (median (interquartile range): 434.8 (374.3-502.4) vs 183.3 (131.9-246.9) μg/l; p < 0.001) and were correlated with norepinephrine (r = 0.37. p < 0.001), blood glucose (r = 0.32, p = 0.001), lactate (r = 0.25, p = 0.009), WBC (r = 0.20, p = 0.039), and PRISM-Ⅲ scores (r = 0.748, p < 0.0001). Patients suffering neurogenic pulmonary edema, those infected with enterovirus A71, and those requiring more vasopressors had higher serum CHGA levels (median (interquartile range): 385 (239.9-488.8) vs 161 (115.6-222.9), 340.6 (190.6-436.0) vs 150.5 (112.1-210.0), 395.6 (209.1-487.0) vs 167.7 (110.5-240.5) μg/l, respectively; p < 0.0001). The CHGA level upon PICU admission in severe HFMD could be an independent risk factor for mortality (adjusted odds ratio 2.459, 95% confidence interval 1.054-5.906, p = 0.038) with high specificity (87.5%) and sensitivity (82.6%) (cut-off value at 339.6 μg/l).

CONCLUSIONS

The CHGA level in severe HFMD was found to be associated with cardiopulmonary failure. If measured upon PICU admission, CHGA may provide additional prognostic information in this disease.

Space-Time Clustering Characteristics of Tuberculosis in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan, 2015-2019

The number of tuberculosis (TB) cases in Pakistan ranks fifth in the world. The National TB Control Program (NTP) has recently reported more than 462,920 TB patients in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan from 2002 to 2017. This study aims to identify spatial and space-time clusters of TB cases in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province Pakistan during 2015-2019 to design effective interventions. The spatial and space-time cluster analyses were conducted at the district-level based on the reported TB cases from January 2015 to April 2019 using space-time scan statistics (SaTScan). The most likely spatial and space-time clusters were detected in the northern rural part of the province. Additionally, two districts in the west were detected as the secondary space-time clusters. The most likely space-time cluster shows a tendency of spread toward the neighboring districts in the central part, and the most likely spatial cluster shows a tendency of spread toward the neighboring districts in the south. Most of the space-time clusters were detected at the start of the study period 2015-2016. The potential TB clusters in the remote rural part might be associated to the dry-cool climate and lack of access to the healthcare centers in the remote areas.

Enterovirus 71 vaccine acceptance among parents of children < 5 years old and their knowledge of hand, foot and mouth disease, Chongqing, China, 2017

Background

Enterovirus 71 (EV71) vaccine, which was put into market in China in 2016, has been viewed as a promising prevention measure against severe and fatal hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). This study aimed to investigate the knowledge of HFMD and acceptability of EV71 vaccine among parents of under-five in Chongqing, China.

Methodology /Principal findings

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2017. A validated questionnaire consisting of three sections including demographic information, knowledge of HFMD, acceptability and reasons for declining vaccination was developed based on literature review. Factors associated with unwillingness to receive EV71 vaccine were explored using multivariate logistic regression. A total of 992 parents finished the questionnaire with a response rate of 91.9%. Awareness of HFMD and EV71 vaccine were reported by 823 (83.0%) parents and 386 (38.9%) parents respectively. Knowledge about HFMD was with a mean score of 5.0 (standard deviation = 3.5) out of a total score of 12. Only 369 (37.2%) participants were classified as with good knowledge level about HFMD. 279 (28.1%) participants had their children received EV71 vaccine and 271 (27.3%) expressed willingness to vaccinate their children after a short-time education about EV71 vaccine. Acceptability of EV71 vaccine increased along with parents’ education level (p = 0.008) and HFMD knowledge level (p<0.001). Parents of scattered children had higher acceptability than those of preschool children (p = 0.002). 442 (44.6%) of participants were unwilling to have their children vaccinated with EV71 vaccine. The most common reasons for declining EV71 vaccine were doubts about its safety (56.6%) and efficacy (48.3%), and the necessity of vaccination (38.3%). Physicians and vaccination certificate were the parents’ most trusted sources of vaccine information.

Conclusions

Parents’ knowledge about HFMD was not sufficient, and nearly half of the parents expressed unwillingness to vaccinate their children with EV71 vaccine. Our findings stress that more efforts by health authorities in Chongqing are needed to increase the acceptability of EV71 vaccine, especially among parents of preschool children with lower education level.

The epidemic characteristics and spatial autocorrelation analysis of hand, foot and mouth disease from 2010 to 2015 in Shantou, Guangdong, China

BACKGROUND

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is the highest incidence of infectious diseases in China. Shantou is one of the most infected cities. Therefore, it is necessary for us to understand the epidemic characteristics and distribution trend of HFMD in Shantou. The purpose of this study is to investigate the spatial epidemiological characteristics of HFMD and analyse its spatial autocorrelation.

METHOD

We collated and summarised the data of HFMD in Shantou from 2010 to 2015. SaTScan software and Moran's I were used to analyse the spatial correlation of HFMD, and the results were presented in ArcMap.

RESULTS

The distribution of HFMD in Shantou was of a seasonal trend, mainly concentrating during May and June. Children under 5-years-old were the main group of cases of HFMD, accounting for 92.46%. The proportion of infected children, especially those aged zero to 1, was the largest in each year, accounting for 45.62%, meaning that smaller children were more susceptible to HFMD. The number of male patients with HFMD was greater than that of females (1.78:1, male: female). With regard to the potential impact of patients' living style on the incidence rate of HFMD, this study revealed that scattered children were the dominant infected population, accounting for as much 84.49% of cases. The incidence of HFMD was unevenly distributed among streets. The incidence interval of streets was in a range of 13.76/100,000 to 1135.19/100,000. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was no global spatial correlation in Shantou, except in 2013. The results of local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that H-H correlation existed in the high incidence local area of Shantou.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of HFMD across the various streets in Shantou not only varied widely but also represented local autocorrelation. Attention, as well as prevention and control measures, should be focused on those high-incidence areas, such as the Queshi street, Zhuchi street and Xinjin street.

The surveillance of the epidemiological and serotype characteristics of hand, foot, mouth disease in Neijiang city, China, 2010-2017: A retrospective study

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is well recognized as one of the major threats to children’s health globally. The increasing complexity of the etiology of HFMD still challenges disease control in China. There is little surveillance of the molecular epidemiological characteristics of the enteroviruses (EVs) that cause HFMD in Neijiang city or the Sichuan Basin area in Southwest China. In this study, demographic and epidemiological information for 14,928 probable HFMD cases was extracted and analyzed to describe the epidemic features of HFMD in Neijiang city from Jan 2010 to Dec 2017. The swab samples of select probable HFMD cases from 2012 to 2017 were tested by reverse transcription (RT) real-time PCR to identify the serotype distribution of EVs, and 110 randomly selected RT-real-time PCR positive samples were then amplified and analyzed for the VP1 or VP4 regions of EVs to further analyze the phylogenetic characteristics of the circulating strains in this area. The eight-year average annual incidence was 49.82 per 100,000 in Neijiang. The incidence rates varied between 19.51 and 70.73 per 100,000, demonstrating peaks of incidence in even-number years (2012, 2014 and 2016). The median age of the probable cases was 27 months and the interquartile range (25^th to 75^th percentile) of ages for the probable HFMD cases was between 14 and 42 months. The male-to-female ratio of the probable HFMD cases was 1.47:1, and scattered children were the major population classification (81.7%). Two epidemic peaks were observed: one major peak between April and July and the other lesser peak between October and December. Of 6513 probable cases tested with RT-real-time PCR, 4015 (61.6%) were positive for enterovirus with the serotype distribution as follows: EV71+, 30.1% (n = 1210); CV-A16+, 28.7% (n = 1154) and a sole pan-enterovirus+, 41.1% (n = 1651). A total of 91 cases (82.7%, 91/110) were successfully amplified and underwent phylogenetic analysis: all EV71+ cases were C4a serotype (n = 23/30); all CV-A16+ cases were B2b serotype (n = 24/30); of 42 sole pan-enterovirus+ samples, 20 were CV-A6, 14 were CV-A10 and the rest within this group were CV-A4 (n = 4), CV-A8 (n = 2), CV-A9 (n = 1) and CV-B3 (n = 1). Our findings provide important evidence that aids the improvement of strategies for vaccination against HFMD and comprehensive disease control in China.

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Guangdong Province, China and Potential Predictors, 2009⁻2012

Background: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease among children. Guangdong Province is one of the most severely affected provinces in south China. This study aims to identify the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and potential predictors of HFMD in Guangdong Province and provide a theoretical basis for the disease control and prevention. Methods: Case-based HFMD surveillance data from 2009 to 2012 was obtained from the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC). The Bayesian spatiotemporal model was used to evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of HFMD and identify the potential association with meteorological and socioeconomic factors. Results: Spatially, areas with higher relative risk (RR) of HFMD tended to be clustered around the Pearl River Delta region (the mid-east of the province). Temporally, we observed that the risk of HFMD peaked from April to July and October to December each year and detected an upward trend between 2009 and 2012. There was positive nonlinear enhancement between spatial and temporal effects, and the distribution of relative risk in space was not fixed, which had an irregular fluctuating trend in each month. The risk of HFMD was significantly associated with monthly average relative humidity (RR: 1.015, 95% CI: 1.006–1.024), monthly average temperature (RR: 1.045, 95% CI: 1.021–1.069), and monthly average rainfall (RR: 1.004, 95% CI: 1.001–1.008), but not significantly associated with average GDP. Conclusions: The risk of HFMD in Guangdong showed significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. There was spatiotemporal interaction in the relative risk of HFMD. Adding a spatiotemporal interaction term could well explain the change of spatial effect with time, thus increasing the goodness of fit of the model. Meteorological factors, such as monthly average relative humidity, monthly average temperature, and monthly average rainfall, might be the driving factors of HFMD.

An antiviral drug screening system for enterovirus 71 based on an improved plaque assay: A potential high-throughput method

Plaque assay plays an irreplaceable role in a variety of virological studies, including determining titers of viruses. Our previous study showed that a simple and highly repeatable plaque assay could be used for enterovirus 71 (EV-A71). Now, we show that using a subclone of a clinical EV-A71 isolate and a rhabdomyosarcoma cell line (RD), a plaque assay based on an EV-A71/RD model could exhibit the most rapid formation of plaques (<2 days), with much higher repeatability and consistency. Inspired by a plaque inhibitory test for testing ribavirin and interferon, as well as a plaque reduction neutralization test, this modified method has been used to establish a convenient system by using 96-well plates for screening anti-EV-A71 drugs from a 130-compound library containing multiple types of inhibitors. Nine candidate effective compounds for EV-A71 have been screened out, and among them, nobiletin (flavonoid) was found to be a novel effective compound at the concentration of 10 μM. Our findings imply that this improved method based on an EV-A71/RD model proved to be a potential high-throughput method in screening novel antiviral drugs for EV-A71. Undoubtedly, this method can also be applied to other viruses that can produce an obvious cytopathic effect.

Clinical characteristics and managements of severe hand, foot and mouth disease caused by enterovirus A71 and coxsackievirus A16 in Shanghai, China

Background

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a transmissible infectious disease caused by human enteroviruses (EV). Here, we described features of children with severe HFMD caused by EV-A71 or coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) in Shanghai, China.

Methods

Severe EV-A71 or CV-A16 caused HFMD children admitted to the Xinhua Hospital from January 2014 and December 2016, were recruited retrospectively to the study. Symptoms and findings at the time of hospitalization, laboratory tests, treatments, length of stay and residual findings at discharge were systematically recorded and analyzed.

Results

Of 19,995 children visited clinic service with probable HFMD, 574 children (2.87%) were admitted, 234 children (40.76%) were confirmed with EV-A71 (90/574) or CV-A16 (144/574) disease. Most (91.02%) of the patients were under 5 years. Initial clinical symptoms of EV-A71 and CV-A16 cases were: fever > 39 °C in 81 (90%) and 119 (82.63%), vomiting in 31 (34.44%) and 28 (19.44%), myoclonic twitching in 19 (21.11%) and 11(7.64%), startle in 21 (23.33%) and 20 (13.69%), respectively. Serum levels of interleukin-1β (IL-1β), IL-2, IL-6, IL-8, interferon-γ (IFN-γ), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) were significantly upregulated in severe HFMD subjects. Forty-seven children (20.08%) treated with intravenous gamma globulin (IVIG) showed decreased duration of illness episodes. All children were discharged without complications.

Conclusions

EV-A71 and CV-A16 accounted 40.76% of admitted HFMD during 2014 to 2016 in Xinhua Hospital. IVIG appeared to be beneficial in shortening the duration of illness episodes of severe HFMD.

Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology of Viral Hepatitis in China (2003-2015): Implications for Prevention and Control Policies

Viral hepatitis, as one of the most serious notifiable infectious diseases in China, takes heavy tolls from the infected and causes a severe economic burden to society, yet few studies have systematically explored the spatio-temporal epidemiology of viral hepatitis in China. This study aims to explore, visualize and compare the epidemiologic trends and spatial changing patterns of different types of viral hepatitis (A, B, C, E and unspecified, based on the classification of CDC) at the provincial level in China. The growth rates of incidence are used and converted to box plots to visualize the epidemiologic trends, with the linear trend being tested by chi-square linear by linear association test. Two complementary spatial cluster methods are used to explore the overall agglomeration level and identify spatial clusters: spatial autocorrelation analysis (measured by global and local Moran's I) and space-time scan analysis. Based on the spatial autocorrelation analysis, the hotspots of hepatitis A remain relatively stable and gradually shrunk, with Yunnan and Sichuan successively moving out the high-high (HH) cluster area. The HH clustering feature of hepatitis B in China gradually disappeared with time. However, the HH cluster area of hepatitis C has gradually moved towards the west, while for hepatitis E, the provincial units around the Yangtze River Delta region have been revealing HH cluster features since 2005. The space-time scan analysis also indicates the distinct spatial changing patterns of different types of viral hepatitis in China. It is easy to conclude that there is no one-size-fits-all plan for the prevention and control of viral hepatitis in all the provincial units. An effective response requires a package of coordinated actions, which should vary across localities regarding the spatial-temporal epidemic dynamics of each type of virus and the specific conditions of each provincial unit.