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Zhang N, Yang X, Su B, Dou Z. Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a university classroom based on real human close contact behaviors. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 917:170346. [PMID: 38281642 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170346] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2023] [Revised: 12/29/2023] [Accepted: 01/19/2024] [Indexed: 01/30/2024]
Abstract
Due to high-population density, frequent close contact, possible poor ventilation, university classrooms are vulnerable for transmission of respiratory infectious diseases. Close contact and long-range airborne are possibly main routes for SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In this study, taking a university classroom in Beijing for example, close contact behaviors of students were collected through a depth-detection device, which could detect depth to each pixel of the image, based on semi-supervised learning. Finally, >23 h of video data were obtained. Using Computational Fluid Dynamics, the relationship between viral exposure and close contact behaviors (e.g. interpersonal distance, relative facial orientations, and relative positions) was established. A multi-route transmission model (short-range airborne, mucous deposition, and long-range airborne) of infectious diseases considering real close contact behaviors was developed. In the case of Omicron, the risk of infection in university classrooms and the efficacy of different interventions were assessed based on dose-response model. The average interpersonal distance in university classrooms is 0.9 m (95 % CI, 0.5 m-1.4 m), with the highest proportion of face-to-back contact at 87.0 %. The risk of infection of susceptible students per 45-min lesson was 1 %. The relative contributions of short-range airborne and long-range airborne transmission were 40.5 % and 59.5 %, respectively, and the mucous deposition was basically negligible. When all students are wearing N95 respirators, the infection risk could be reduced by 96 %, the relative contribution of long-range airborne transmission increases to 95.6 %. When the fresh air per capita in the classroom is 24 m3/h/person, the virus exposure could be decreased by 81.1 % compared to the real situation with 1.02 m3/h/person. In a classroom with an occupancy rate of 50 %, after optimized arrangement of student distribution, the infection risk could be decreased by 62 %.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nan Zhang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Xueze Yang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Boni Su
- China Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute, Beijing, China
| | - Zhiyang Dou
- Department of Computer Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
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2
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Zhang N, Liu L, Dou Z, Liu X, Yang X, Miao D, Guo Y, Gu S, Li Y, Qian H, Wei J. Close contact behaviors of university and school students in 10 indoor environments. JOURNAL OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS 2023; 458:132069. [PMID: 37463561 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2023.132069] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2023] [Revised: 05/24/2023] [Accepted: 07/13/2023] [Indexed: 07/20/2023]
Abstract
Close contact routes, including short-range airborne and large-droplet routes, play an important role in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in indoor environments. However, the exposure risk of such routes is difficult to quantify due to the lack of data on the close contact behavior of individuals. In this study, a digital wearable device, based on semi-supervised learning, was developed to automatically record human close contact behavior. We collected 337,056 s of indoor close contact of school and university students from 194.5 h of depth video recordings in 10 types of indoor environments. The correlation between aerosol exposure and close contact behaviors was then evaluated. Individuals in restaurants had the highest close contact ratio (64%), as well as the highest probability of face-to-face pattern (78%) during close contact. Accordingly, university students showed greater exposure potential in dormitories than school students in homes, however, a lower exposure was observed in classrooms and postgraduate student offices in comparison with school students in classrooms. In addition, restaurants had the highest aerosol exposure volume for both short-range inhalation and direct deposition on the facial mucosa. Thus, the classroom was established as the primary indoor environment where school students are exposed to aerosols.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nan Zhang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Li Liu
- School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Zhiyang Dou
- Department of Computer Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Xiyue Liu
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Xueze Yang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Doudou Miao
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Yong Guo
- Department of Building Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Silan Gu
- Thee First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Yuguo Li
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Hua Qian
- School of Energy and Environment, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
| | - Jianjian Wei
- Institute of Refrigeration and Cryogenics, Key Laboratory of Refrigeration and Cryogenic Technology of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
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3
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Guo Y, Dou Z, Zhang N, Liu X, Su B, Li Y, Zhang Y. Student close contact behavior and COVID-19 transmission in China's classrooms. PNAS NEXUS 2023; 2:pgad142. [PMID: 37228510 PMCID: PMC10205473 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad142] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2022] [Revised: 04/10/2023] [Accepted: 04/14/2023] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Classrooms are high-risk indoor environments, so analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in classrooms is important for determining optimal interventions. Due to the absence of human behavior data, it is challenging to accurately determine virus exposure in classrooms. A wearable device for close contact behavior detection was developed, and we recorded >250,000 data points of close contact behaviors of students from grades 1 to 12. Combined with a survey on students' behaviors, we analyzed virus transmission in classrooms. Close contact rates for students were 37 ± 11% during classes and 48 ± 13% during breaks. Students in lower grades had higher close contact rates and virus transmission potential. The long-range airborne transmission route is dominant, accounting for 90 ± 3.6% and 75 ± 7.7% with and without mask wearing, respectively. During breaks, the short-range airborne route became more important, contributing 48 ± 3.1% in grades 1 to 9 (without wearing masks). Ventilation alone cannot always meet the demands of COVID-19 control; 30 m3/h/person is suggested as the threshold outdoor air ventilation rate in a classroom. This study provides scientific support for COVID-19 prevention and control in classrooms, and our proposed human behavior detection and analysis methods offer a powerful tool to understand virus transmission characteristics and can be employed in various indoor environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yong Guo
- Department of Building Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Indoor Air Quality Evaluation and Control, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Zhiyang Dou
- Department of Computer Science, The University of Hong Kong, Beijing 999077, China
| | - Nan Zhang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
| | - Xiyue Liu
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
| | - Boni Su
- Clean Energy Research Institute, China Electric Power Planning and Engineering Institute, Beijing 100120, China
| | - Yuguo Li
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR 999077, China
| | - Yinping Zhang
- Department of Building Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Indoor Air Quality Evaluation and Control, Beijing 100084, China
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4
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Chen W, Liu L, Zhang N, Hang J, Li Y. Conversational head movement decreases close-contact exposure to expired respiratory droplets. JOURNAL OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS 2023; 444:130406. [PMID: 36417778 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2022.130406] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2022] [Revised: 11/01/2022] [Accepted: 11/13/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
People constantly move their heads during conversation, as such movement is an important non-verbal mode of communication. Head movement alters the direction of people's expired air flow, therefore affecting their conversational partners' level of exposure. Nevertheless, there is a lack of understanding of the mechanism whereby head movement affects people's exposure. In this study, a dynamic meshing method in computational fluid dynamics was used to simulate the head movement of a human-shaped thermal manikin. Droplets were released during the oral expiration periods of the source manikin, during which it was either motionless, was shaking its head or was nodding its head, while the head of a face-to-face target manikin remained motionless. The results indicate that the target manikin had a high level of exposure to respiratory droplets when the source manikin was motionless, whereas the target manikin's level of exposure was significantly reduced when the source manikin was shaking or nodding its head. The source manikin had the highest level of self-exposure when it was nodding its head and the lowest level of self-exposure when its head was motionless. People's level of exposure during close contact is highly variable, highlighting the need for further investigations in more realistic conversational scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenzhao Chen
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, China
| | - Li Liu
- Department of Building Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Nan Zhang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Jian Hang
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Zhuhai 519082, China
| | - Yuguo Li
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, China; Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, China.
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5
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Relative assessment of cloth mask protection against ballistic droplets: A frugal approach. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0275376. [PMID: 36194594 PMCID: PMC9531801 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275376] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2022] [Accepted: 09/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the relevance of evaluating the effectiveness of face masks-especially those made at home using a variety of materials-has become obvious. However, quantifying mask protection often requires sophisticated equipment. Using a frugal stain technique, here we quantify the "ballistic" droplets reaching a receptor from a jet-emitting source which mimics a coughing, sneezing or talking human-in real life, such droplets may host active SARS-CoV-2 virus able to replicate in the nasopharynx. We demonstrate that materials often used in home-made face masks block most of the droplets. Mimicking situations eventually found in daily life, we also show quantitatively that less liquid carried by ballistic droplets reaches a receptor when a blocking material is deployed near the source than when located near the receptor, which supports the paradigm that your face mask does protect you, but protects others even better than you. Finally, the blocking behavior can be quantitatively explained by a simple mechanical model.
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Himeur Y, Al-Maadeed S, Almaadeed N, Abualsaud K, Mohamed A, Khattab T, Elharrouss O. Deep visual social distancing monitoring to combat COVID-19: A comprehensive survey. SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND SOCIETY 2022; 85:104064. [PMID: 35880102 PMCID: PMC9301907 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2022.104064] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2022] [Revised: 07/07/2022] [Accepted: 07/12/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, social distancing (SD) has played an essential role in controlling and slowing down the spread of the virus in smart cities. To ensure the respect of SD in public areas, visual SD monitoring (VSDM) provides promising opportunities by (i) controlling and analyzing the physical distance between pedestrians in real-time, (ii) detecting SD violations among the crowds, and (iii) tracking and reporting individuals violating SD norms. To the authors' best knowledge, this paper proposes the first comprehensive survey of VSDM frameworks and identifies their challenges and future perspectives. Typically, we review existing contributions by presenting the background of VSDM, describing evaluation metrics, and discussing SD datasets. Then, VSDM techniques are carefully reviewed after dividing them into two main categories: hand-crafted feature-based and deep-learning-based methods. A significant focus is paid to convolutional neural networks (CNN)-based methodologies as most of the frameworks have used either one-stage, two-stage, or multi-stage CNN models. A comparative study is also conducted to identify their pros and cons. Thereafter, a critical analysis is performed to highlight the issues and impediments that hold back the expansion of VSDM systems. Finally, future directions attracting significant research and development are derived.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yassine Himeur
- Computer Science and Engineering Department, Qatar University, Qatar
| | - Somaya Al-Maadeed
- Computer Science and Engineering Department, Qatar University, Qatar
| | - Noor Almaadeed
- Computer Science and Engineering Department, Qatar University, Qatar
| | - Khalid Abualsaud
- Computer Science and Engineering Department, Qatar University, Qatar
| | - Amr Mohamed
- Computer Science and Engineering Department, Qatar University, Qatar
| | - Tamer Khattab
- Electrical Engineering Department, Qatar University, Qatar
| | - Omar Elharrouss
- Computer Science and Engineering Department, Qatar University, Qatar
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7
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Liu X, Dou Z, Wang L, Su B, Jin T, Guo Y, Wei J, Zhang N. Close contact behavior-based COVID-19 transmission and interventions in a subway system. JOURNAL OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS 2022; 436:129233. [PMID: 35739753 PMCID: PMC9132379 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2022.129233] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2022] [Revised: 05/21/2022] [Accepted: 05/23/2022] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
During COVID-19 pandemic, analysis on virus exposure and intervention efficiency in public transports based on real passenger's close contact behaviors is critical to curb infectious disease transmission. A monitoring device was developed to gather a total of 145,821 close contact data in subways based on semi-supervision learning. A virus transmission model considering both short- and long-range inhalation and deposition was established to calculate the virus exposure. During rush-hour, short-range inhalation exposure is 3.2 times higher than deposition exposure and 7.5 times higher than long-range inhalation exposure of all passengers in the subway. The close contact rate was 56.1 % and the average interpersonal distance was 0.8 m. Face-to-back was the main pattern during close contact. Comparing with random distribution, if all passengers stand facing in the same direction, personal virus exposure through inhalation (deposition) can be reduced by 74.1 % (98.5 %). If the talk rate was decreased from 20 % to 5 %, the inhalation (deposition) exposure can be reduced by 69.3 % (73.8 %). In addition, we found that virus exposure could be reduced by 82.0 % if all passengers wear surgical masks. This study provides scientific support for COVID-19 prevention and control in subways based on real human close contact behaviors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiyue Liu
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Zhiyang Dou
- Department of Computer Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Lei Wang
- Institute of Refrigeration and Cryogenics/Key Laboratory of Refrigeration and Cryogenic Technology of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Boni Su
- China Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute, Beijing, China
| | - Tianyi Jin
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Yong Guo
- Department of Building Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Jianjian Wei
- Institute of Refrigeration and Cryogenics/Key Laboratory of Refrigeration and Cryogenic Technology of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Nan Zhang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China.
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8
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Ji S, Xiao S, Wang H, Lei H. Increasing contributions of airborne route in SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant transmission compared with the ancestral strain. BUILDING AND ENVIRONMENT 2022; 221:109328. [PMID: 35784591 PMCID: PMC9233747 DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2022.109328] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2022] [Revised: 06/14/2022] [Accepted: 06/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant has become the dominant lineage worldwide. Experimental studies have shown that SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant is more stable on various environmental surfaces than the ancestral strains of SARS-CoV-2. However, the influences on the role of the contact route in SARS-CoV-2 transmission are still unknown. In this study, we built a Markov chain model to simulate the transmission of the Omicron and ancestral strains of SARS-CoV-2 within a household over a 1-day period from multiple pathways; that is, airborne, droplet, and contact routes. We assumed that there were two adults and one child in the household, and that one of the adults was infected with SARS-CoV-2. We assumed two scenarios. (1) Asymptomatic/presymptomatic infection, and (2) symptomatic infection. During asymptomatic/presymptomatic infection, the contact route contributing the most (37%-45%), followed by the airborne (34%-38%) and droplet routes (21%-28%). During symptomatic infection, the droplet route was the dominant pathway (48%-71%), followed by the contact route (25%-42%), with the airborne route playing a negligible role (<10%). Compared to the ancestral strain, although the contribution of the contact route increased in Omicron variant transmission, the increase was slight, from 25%-41% to 30%-45%. With the growing concern about the increase in the proportion of asymptomatic/presymptomatic infection in Omicron strain transmissions, the airborne route, rather than the fomite route, should be of focus. Our findings suggest the importance of ventilation in the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant prevention in building environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shuyi Ji
- School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, PR China
| | - Shenglan Xiao
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, PR China
| | - Huaibin Wang
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, PR China
| | - Hao Lei
- School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, PR China
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9
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Zhang N, Hu T, Zhang J, Mai W, Jian M, Li J, Chen F, Zhu M, Zhuang L, Jin T, Qian H, Li Y, Kang M. Probable close contact transmission in a restaurant in China. J Infect 2022; 85:573-607. [PMID: 36057385 PMCID: PMC9428334 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2022.08.029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2022] [Revised: 08/24/2022] [Accepted: 08/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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10
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Rowe BR, Canosa A, Meslem A, Rowe F. Increased airborne transmission of COVID-19 with new variants, implications for health policies. BUILDING AND ENVIRONMENT 2022; 219:109132. [PMID: 35578697 PMCID: PMC9095081 DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2022.109132] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2022] [Revised: 04/19/2022] [Accepted: 04/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
New COVID-19 variants, either of higher viral load such as delta or higher contagiousness like omicron, can lead to higher airborne transmission than historical strains. This paper highlights their implications for health policies, based on a clear analytical understanding and modeling of the airborne contamination paths, of the dose following exposure, and the importance of the counting unit for pathogens, itself linked to the dose-response law. Using the counting unit of Wells, i.e. the quantum of contagium, we develop the conservation equation of quanta which allows deriving the value of the quantum concentration at steady state for a well-mixed room. The link with the monitoring concentration of carbon dioxide is made and used for a risk analysis of a variety of situations for which we collected CO2 time-series observations. The main conclusions of these observations are that 1) the present norms of ventilation, are both insufficient and not respected, especially in a variety of public premises, leading to high risk of contamination and that 2) air can often be considered well-mixed. Finally, we insist that public health policy in the field of airborne transmission should be based on a multi parameter analysis such as the time of exposure, the quantum production rate, mask wearing and the infector proportion in the population in order to evaluate the risk, considering the whole complexity of dose evaluation. Recognizing airborne transmission requires thinking in terms of time of exposure rather than in terms of proximal distance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bertrand R Rowe
- Rowe Consulting, 22 chemin des moines, 22750 Saint Jacut de la Mer, France
| | - André Canosa
- CNRS, IPR (Institut de Physique de Rennes)-UMR 6251, Université de Rennes, 35000 Rennes, France
| | - Amina Meslem
- Université de Rennes, LGCGM, 3 Rue du Clos Courtel, BP 90422, 35704, Rennes, CEDEX 7, France
| | - Frantz Rowe
- Nantes Université, LEMNA, Nantes, France
- SKEMA Business School, KTO, Sophia-Antipolis, France
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11
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Wilber MQ, Yang A, Boughton R, Manlove KR, Miller RS, Pepin KM, Wittemyer G. A model for leveraging animal movement to understand spatio-temporal disease dynamics. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:1290-1304. [PMID: 35257466 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13986] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2021] [Revised: 12/27/2021] [Accepted: 02/04/2022] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
The ongoing explosion of fine-resolution movement data in animal systems provides a unique opportunity to empirically quantify spatial, temporal and individual variation in transmission risk and improve our ability to forecast disease outbreaks. However, we lack a generalizable model that can leverage movement data to quantify transmission risk and how it affects pathogen invasion and persistence on heterogeneous landscapes. We developed a flexible model 'Movement-driven modelling of spatio-temporal infection risk' (MoveSTIR) that leverages diverse data on animal movement to derive metrics of direct and indirect contact by decomposing transmission into constituent processes of contact formation and duration and pathogen deposition and acquisition. We use MoveSTIR to demonstrate that ignoring fine-scale animal movements on actual landscapes can mis-characterize transmission risk and epidemiological dynamics. MoveSTIR unifies previous work on epidemiological contact networks and can address applied and theoretical questions at the nexus of movement and disease ecology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark Q Wilber
- Forestry, Wildlife, and Fisheries, Institute of Agriculture, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA
| | - Anni Yang
- United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, National Wildlife Research Center, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.,Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.,Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA
| | - Raoul Boughton
- Archbold Biological Station, Buck Island Ranch, Lake Placid, Florida, USA
| | - Kezia R Manlove
- Department of Wildland Resources and Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA
| | - Ryan S Miller
- United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Veterinary Service, Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Kim M Pepin
- United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, National Wildlife Research Center, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - George Wittemyer
- Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
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12
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Wilson AM, Aviles N, Petrie JI, Beamer PI, Szabo Z, Xie M, McIllece J, Chen Y, Son Y, Halai S, White T, Ernst KC, Masel J. Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 Infection Risk Within the Google/Apple Exposure Notification Framework to Inform Quarantine Recommendations. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2022; 42:162-176. [PMID: 34155669 PMCID: PMC8447042 DOI: 10.1111/risa.13768] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2020] [Revised: 01/31/2021] [Accepted: 05/24/2021] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
Most early Bluetooth-based exposure notification apps use three binary classifications to recommend quarantine following SARS-CoV-2 exposure: a window of infectiousness in the transmitter, ≥15 minutes duration, and Bluetooth attenuation below a threshold. However, Bluetooth attenuation is not a reliable measure of distance, and infection risk is not a binary function of distance, nor duration, nor timing. We model uncertainty in the shape and orientation of an exhaled virus-containing plume and in inhalation parameters, and measure uncertainty in distance as a function of Bluetooth attenuation. We calculate expected dose by combining this with estimated infectiousness based on timing relative to symptom onset. We calibrate an exponential dose-response curve based on infection probabilities of household contacts. The probability of current or future infectiousness, conditioned on how long postexposure an exposed individual has been symptom-free, decreases during quarantine, with shape determined by incubation periods, proportion of asymptomatic cases, and asymptomatic shedding durations. It can be adjusted for negative test results using Bayes' theorem. We capture a 10-fold range of risk using six infectiousness values, 11-fold range using three Bluetooth attenuation bins, ∼sixfold range from exposure duration given the 30 minute duration cap imposed by the Google/Apple v1.1, and ∼11-fold between the beginning and end of 14 day quarantine. Public health authorities can either set a threshold on initial infection risk to determine 14-day quarantine onset, or on the conditional probability of current and future infectiousness conditions to determine both quarantine and duration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amanda M. Wilson
- Mel & Enid Zuckerman College of Public HealthUniversity of Arizona1295 N Martin AveTucsonAZ85724USA
- Rocky Mountain Center for Occupational and Environmental HealthUniversity of Utah391 Chipeta Way suite cSalt Lake CityUT84108USA
| | - Nathan Aviles
- Graduate Interdisciplinary Program in StatisticsUniversity of Arizona617 N. Santa Rita Ave.TucsonAZ85721USA
| | - James I. Petrie
- WeHealth Solutions PBC5325 Elkhorn Blvd # 7011SacramentoCA95842USA
- Applied MathematicsUniversity of Waterloo200 University Ave. WWaterlooOntarioN2L 3G1Canada
- Covid Watch (affiliation at time of writing, now dissolved)
| | - Paloma I. Beamer
- Mel & Enid Zuckerman College of Public HealthUniversity of Arizona1295 N Martin AveTucsonAZ85724USA
| | - Zsombor Szabo
- Covid Watch (affiliation at time of writing, now dissolved)
| | - Michelle Xie
- WeHealth Solutions PBC5325 Elkhorn Blvd # 7011SacramentoCA95842USA
- Covid Watch (affiliation at time of writing, now dissolved)
| | - Janet McIllece
- World Wide Technology1 World Wide WaySt. LouisMO63146USA
| | - Yijie Chen
- Systems and Industrial EngineeringUniversity of Arizona1127 E. James E. Rogers WayTucsonAZ85721USA
| | - Young‐Jun Son
- Systems and Industrial EngineeringUniversity of Arizona1127 E. James E. Rogers WayTucsonAZ85721USA
| | - Sameer Halai
- WeHealth Solutions PBC5325 Elkhorn Blvd # 7011SacramentoCA95842USA
- Covid Watch (affiliation at time of writing, now dissolved)
| | - Tina White
- Covid Watch (affiliation at time of writing, now dissolved)
| | - Kacey C. Ernst
- Mel & Enid Zuckerman College of Public HealthUniversity of Arizona1295 N Martin AveTucsonAZ85724USA
| | - Joanna Masel
- WeHealth Solutions PBC5325 Elkhorn Blvd # 7011SacramentoCA95842USA
- Ecology & Evolutionary BiologyUniversity of Arizona1041 E Lowell StTucsonAZ85721USA
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13
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Zhang N, Liu X, Jin T, Zhao P, Miao D, Lei H, Su B, Xue P, Xie J, Li Y. Weakening personal protective behavior by Chinese university students after COVID-19 vaccination. BUILDING AND ENVIRONMENT 2021; 206:108367. [PMID: 34566244 PMCID: PMC8450227 DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2021.108367] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2021] [Revised: 09/14/2021] [Accepted: 09/15/2021] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Personal protective behaviors and their dynamic change are known to play a major role in the community spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causal pathogen of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In this study, a total of 3229 students in Chinese universities completed an online survey about their knowledge on transmission and personal protective behavior before and after COVID-19 vaccination. Of the respondents, 87.6% had been vaccinated. Most students believed that the large droplet (97.0%) and short-range airborne (89.3%) routes were the two most likely SARS-CoV-2 transmission routes, whereas only 24.1% considered long-range airborne transmission to be possible. Students who would be expected to possess better knowledge about virus transmission (e.g., students of medicine) reported better personal protective behaviors. Female students reported relatively better personal hygiene practices than male students, so did the confident students than their diffident peers. Students washed their hands on average of 5.76 times per day during the pandemic. Students at universities in southern regions washed their hands more frequently but paid less attention to indoor ventilation than did their northern counterparts. Interestingly, students who are fear of being infected had the bad personal hygiene. University students wore 22% less masks in public indoor environments after vaccination. Chinese university students weakened their personal protective behavior after vaccination and it may increase the potential risk of infection in the new waves of variant virus (e.g. delta).
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Affiliation(s)
- Nan Zhang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Xiyue Liu
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Tianyi Jin
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Pengcheng Zhao
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | - Doudou Miao
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Hao Lei
- School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Boni Su
- China Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Xue
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Jingchao Xie
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Yuguo Li
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China
- School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China
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14
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Cortellessa G, Stabile L, Arpino F, Faleiros DE, van den Bos W, Morawska L, Buonanno G. Close proximity risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 infection. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 794:148749. [PMID: 34225157 PMCID: PMC8242194 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148749] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2021] [Revised: 06/23/2021] [Accepted: 06/25/2021] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
Although the interpersonal distance represents an important parameter affecting the risk of infection due to respiratory viruses, the mechanism of exposure to exhaled droplets remains insufficiently characterized. In this study, an integrated risk assessment is presented for SARS-CoV-2 close proximity exposure between a speaking infectious subject and a susceptible subject. It is based on a three-dimensional transient numerical model for the description of exhaled droplet spread once emitted by a speaking person, coupled with a recently proposed SARS-CoV-2 emission approach. Particle image velocimetry measurements were conducted to validate the numerical model. The contribution of the large droplets to the risk is barely noticeable only for distances well below 0.6 m, whereas it drops to zero for greater distances where it depends only on airborne droplets. In particular, for short exposures (10 s) a minimum safety distance of 0.75 m should be maintained to lower the risk below 0.1%; for exposures of 1 and 15 min this distance increases to about 1.1 and 1.5 m, respectively. Based on the interpersonal distances across countries reported as a function of interacting individuals, cultural differences, and environmental and sociopsychological factors, the approach presented here revealed that, in addition to intimate and personal distances, particular attention must be paid to exposures longer than 1 min within social distances (of about 1 m).
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Affiliation(s)
- G Cortellessa
- Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Cassino, FR, Italy
| | - L Stabile
- Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Cassino, FR, Italy
| | - F Arpino
- Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Cassino, FR, Italy
| | - D E Faleiros
- Maritime and Transport Technology, TU Delft, Netherlands
| | - W van den Bos
- Maritime and Transport Technology, TU Delft, Netherlands
| | - L Morawska
- International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
| | - G Buonanno
- Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Cassino, FR, Italy; International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
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15
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Wilson AM, Weir MH, King MF, Jones RM. Comparing approaches for modelling indirect contact transmission of infectious diseases. J R Soc Interface 2021; 18:20210281. [PMID: 34465207 PMCID: PMC8437226 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0281] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2021] [Accepted: 08/02/2021] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Mathematical models describing indirect contact transmission are an important component of infectious disease mitigation and risk assessment. A model that tracks microorganisms between compartments by coupled ordinary differential equations or a Markov chain is benchmarked against a mechanistic interpretation of the physical transfer of microorganisms from surfaces to fingers and subsequently to a susceptible person's facial mucosal membranes. The primary objective was to compare these models in their estimates of doses and changes in microorganism concentrations on hands and fomites over time. The abilities of the models to capture the impact of episodic events, such as hand hygiene, and of contact patterns were also explored. For both models, greater doses were estimated for the asymmetrical scenarios in which a more contaminated fomite was touched more often. Differing representations of hand hygiene in the Markov model did not notably impact estimated doses but affected pathogen concentration dynamics on hands. When using the Markov model, losses due to hand hygiene should be handled as separate events as opposed to time-averaging expected losses. The discrete event model demonstrated the effect of hand-to-mouth contact timing on the dose. Understanding how model design influences estimated doses is important for advancing models as reliable risk assessment tools.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amanda M. Wilson
- Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
- Rocky Mountain Center for Occupational and Environmental Health, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
- Department of Community, Environment and Policy, Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Mark H. Weir
- Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OT, USA
| | - Marco-Felipe King
- School of Civil Engineering, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
| | - Rachael M. Jones
- Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
- Rocky Mountain Center for Occupational and Environmental Health, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
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16
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Zhang N, Chen X, Jia W, Jin T, Xiao S, Chen W, Hang J, Ou C, Lei H, Qian H, Su B, Li J, Liu D, Zhang W, Xue P, Liu J, Weschler LB, Xie J, Li Y, Kang M. Evidence for lack of transmission by close contact and surface touch in a restaurant outbreak of COVID-19. J Infect 2021; 83:207-216. [PMID: 34062182 PMCID: PMC8164346 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2021.05.030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2021] [Revised: 05/23/2021] [Accepted: 05/26/2021] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is primarily a respiratory disease that has become a global pandemic. Close contact plays an important role in infection spread, while fomite may also be a possible transmission route. Research during the COVID-19 pandemic has identified long-range airborne transmission as one of the important transmission routes although lack solid evidence. METHODS We examined video data related to a restaurant associated COVID-19 outbreak in Guangzhou. We observed more than 40,000 surface touches and 13,000 episodes of close contacts in the restaurant during the entire lunch duration. These data allowed us to analyse infection risk via both the fomite and close contact routes. RESULTS There is no significant correlation between the infection risk via both fomite and close contact routes among those who were not family members of the index case. We can thus rule out virus transmission via fomite contact and interpersonal close contact routes in the Guangzhou restaurant outbreak. The absence of a fomite route agrees with the COVID-19 literature. CONCLUSIONS These results provide indirect evidence for the long-range airborne route dominating SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the restaurant. We note that the restaurant was poorly ventilated, allowing for increasing airborne SARS-CoV-2 concentration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nan Zhang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Xuguang Chen
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong province, China
| | - Wei Jia
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong
| | - Tianyi Jin
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Shenglan Xiao
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Wenzhao Chen
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong
| | - Jian Hang
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Cuiyun Ou
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Hao Lei
- School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Hua Qian
- School of Energy and Environment, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
| | - Boni Su
- China Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute, Beijing, China
| | - Jiansen Li
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong province, China
| | - Dongmei Liu
- Fogang County Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong, China
| | - Weirong Zhang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Xue
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Jiaping Liu
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | | | - Jingchao Xie
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China.
| | - Yuguo Li
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong; School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong.
| | - Min Kang
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong province, China; School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
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17
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Zuo F, Gao J, Kurkcu A, Yang H, Ozbay K, Ma Q. Reference-free video-to-real distance approximation-based urban social distancing analytics amid COVID-19 pandemic. JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT & HEALTH 2021; 21:101032. [PMID: 36567866 PMCID: PMC9765816 DOI: 10.1016/j.jth.2021.101032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2020] [Revised: 01/13/2021] [Accepted: 02/24/2021] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The rapidly evolving COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically reshaped urban travel patterns. In this research, we explore the relationship between "social distancing," a concept that has gained worldwide familiarity, and urban mobility during the pandemic. Understanding social distancing behavior will allow urban planners and engineers to better understand the new norm of urban mobility amid the pandemic, and what patterns might hold for individual mobility post-pandemic or in the event of a future pandemic. METHODS There are still few efforts to obtain precise information on social distancing patterns of pedestrians in urban environments. This is largely attributed to numerous burdens in safely deploying any effective field data collection approaches during the crisis. This paper aims to fill that gap by developing a data-driven analytical framework that leverages existing public video data sources and advanced computer vision techniques to monitor the evolution of social distancing patterns in urban areas. Specifically, the proposed framework develops a deep-learning approach with a pre-trained convolutional neural network to mine the massive amount of public video data captured in urban areas. Real-time traffic camera data collected in New York City (NYC) was used as a case study to demonstrate the feasibility and validity of using the proposed approach to analyze pedestrian social distancing patterns. RESULTS The results show that microscopic pedestrian social distancing patterns can be quantified by using a generalized real-distance approximation method. The estimated distance between individuals can be compared to social distancing guidelines to evaluate policy compliance and effectiveness during a pandemic. Quantifying social distancing adherence will provide decision-makers with a better understanding of prevailing social contact challenges. It also provides insights into the development of response strategies and plans for phased reopening for similar future scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fan Zuo
- C2SMART Center, Department of Civil and Urban Engineering, Tandon School of Engineering, New York University, 6 MetroTech Center, 4th Floor, Brooklyn, NY, 11201, USA
| | - Jingqin Gao
- C2SMART Center, Department of Civil and Urban Engineering, Tandon School of Engineering, New York University, 6 MetroTech Center, 4th Floor, Brooklyn, NY, 11201, USA
| | - Abdullah Kurkcu
- Ulteig, 5575 DTC Parkway, Suite 200, Greenwood Village, CO, 80111, USA
| | - Hong Yang
- Department of Computational Modeling and Simulation Engineering, Old Dominion University, 1117 ENGR & COMP SCI BLDG, Norfolk, VA, 23529, USA
| | - Kaan Ozbay
- C2SMART Center, Department of Civil and Urban Engineering & Center for Urban Science and Progress (CUSP), Tandon School of Engineering, New York University, 6 MetroTech Center, 4th Floor, Brooklyn, NY, 11201, USA
| | - Qingyu Ma
- Department of Computational Modeling and Simulation Engineering, Old Dominion University, 1117 ENGR & COMP SCI BLDG, Norfolk, VA, 23529, USA
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18
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Chan EYY, Lam HCY. Research in Health-Emergency and Disaster Risk Management and Its Potential Implications in the Post COVID-19 World. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18052520. [PMID: 33806262 PMCID: PMC7967319 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18052520] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2021] [Accepted: 03/02/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Health-Emergency Disaster Risk Management (Health-EDRM) is one of the latest academic and global policy paradigms that capture knowledge, research and policy shift from response to preparedness and health risk management in non-emergency times [...].
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily Ying Yang Chan
- JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7BN, UK
- Correspondence:
| | - Holly Ching Yu Lam
- Genomic and Environmental Medicine, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK;
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19
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Marín-García D, Moyano-Campos JJ, Bienvenido-Huertas JD. Distances of transmission risk of COVID-19 inside dwellings and evaluation of the effectiveness of reciprocal proximity warning sounds. INDOOR AIR 2021; 31:335-347. [PMID: 32866286 DOI: 10.1111/ina.12738] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2020] [Revised: 08/20/2020] [Accepted: 08/21/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
One of the main modes of transmission and propagation of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) is the direct contact with respiratory droplets transmitted among individuals at a certain distance. There are indoor spaces, such as dwellings, in which the transmission risk is high. This research aims to record and analyze risk close contacts in this scope, experimentally assessing the effectiveness of using electronic proximity warning sound devices or systems. For this purpose, the methodology is based on monitoring the location of the occupants of a dwelling. Then, the days in which a proximity warning sound system is installed and activated are compared to the days in which the system is not activated. The results stressed the significant reduction of time and number of close contacts among individuals when the warning was activated. Regarding the relation between the number and the duration of close contacts, together with the reductions mentioned, the possibility of making certain predictions based on the distributions obtained is proved. All this contributes to the progress in the prevention of COVID-19 transmission because of close contacts in dwellings.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Marín-García
- Department of Graphical Expression and Building Engineering, Higher Technical School of Building Engineering, University de Seville, Seville, Spain
| | - Juan J Moyano-Campos
- Department of Graphical Expression and Building Engineering, Higher Technical School of Building Engineering, University de Seville, Seville, Spain
| | - J David Bienvenido-Huertas
- Department of Building Construction II, Higher Technical School of Building Engineering, University de Seville, Seville, Spain
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20
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Zhang N, Jia W, Lei H, Wang P, Zhao P, Guo Y, Dung CH, Bu Z, Xue P, Xie J, Zhang Y, Cheng R, Li Y. Effects of human behaviour changes during the COVID-19 pandemic on influenza spread in Hong Kong. Clin Infect Dis 2020; 73:e1142-e1150. [PMID: 33277643 PMCID: PMC7799278 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciaa1818] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2020] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Background COVID-19 continues to threaten human life worldwide. We explored how human behaviours have been influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong, and how the transmission of other respiratory diseases (e.g. influenza) has been influenced by human behaviour. Methods We focused on the spread of COVID-19 and influenza infections based on reported COVID-19 cases and influenza surveillance data, and investigated the changes in human behaviour due to COVID-19 based on mass transit railway data and the data from a telephone survey. We did the simulation based on SEIR model to assess the risk reduction of influenza transmission caused by the changes in human behaviour. Results During the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of passengers fell by 52.0% compared with the same period in 2019. Residents spent 32.2% more time at home. Each person on average came into close contact with 17.6 and 7.1 people per day during the normal and pandemic periods, respectively. Students, workers, and older people reduced their daily number of close contacts by 83.0%, 48.1%, and 40.3%, respectively. The close contact rates in residences, workplaces, places of study, restaurants, shopping centres, markets, and public transport decreased by 8.3%, 30.8%, 66.0%, 38.5%, 48.6%, 41.0%, and 36.1%, respectively. Based on the simulation, these changes in human behaviours reduced the effective reproduction number of influenza by 63.1%. Conclusions Human behaviours were significantly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong. Close contact control contributed more than 47% to the reduction in infection risk of COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nan Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China.,Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Wei Jia
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Hao Lei
- School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Peihua Wang
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Pengcheng Zhao
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Yong Guo
- Department of Building Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Chung-Hin Dung
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Zhongming Bu
- Department of Energy and Environmental System Engineering, Zhejiang University of Science and Technology, Hangzhou, China
| | - Peng Xue
- Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Jingchao Xie
- Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Yingping Zhang
- Department of Building Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Reynold Cheng
- Department of Computer Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Yuguo Li
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.,School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
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21
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Zhang N, Cheng P, Jia W, Dung CH, Liu L, Chen W, Lei H, Kan C, Han X, Su B, Xiao S, Qian H, Lin B, Li Y. Impact of intervention methods on COVID-19 transmission in Shenzhen. BUILDING AND ENVIRONMENT 2020; 180:107106. [PMID: 32834417 PMCID: PMC7331564 DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2020.107106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2020] [Revised: 06/10/2020] [Accepted: 06/26/2020] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
By March 31, 2020, COVID-19 had spread to more than 200 countries. Over 750,000 confirmed cases were reported, leading to more than 36,000 deaths. In this study, we analysed the efficiency of various intervention strategies to prevent infection by the virus, SARS-CoV-2, using an agent-based SEIIR model, in the fully urbanised city of Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China. Shortening the duration from symptom onset to hospital admission, quarantining recent arrivals from Hubei Province, and letting symptomatic individuals stay at home were found to be the three most important interventions to reduce the risk of infection in Shenzhen. The ideal time window for a mandatory quarantine of arrivals from Hubei Province was between 10 January and January 17, 2020, while the ideal time window for local intervention strategies was between 15 and 22 January. The risk of infection could have been reduced by 50% if all symptomatic individuals had immediately gone to hospital for isolation, and by 35% if a 14-day quarantine for arrivals from Hubei Province had been introduced one week earlier. Intervention strategies implemented in Shenzhen were effective, and the spread of infection would be controlled even if the initial basic reproduction number had doubled. Our results may be useful for other cities when choosing their intervention strategies to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nan Zhang
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Pan Cheng
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Wei Jia
- Zhejiang Institute of Research and Innovation, The University of Hong Kong, Lin An, Zhejiang, China
| | - Chung-Hin Dung
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Li Liu
- Department of Building Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Wenzhao Chen
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Hao Lei
- School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Changcheng Kan
- Beijing Baidu Netcom Science Technology Co., Ltd., Baidu Campus, Shangdi 10th Street, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaoyan Han
- Beijing Baidu Netcom Science Technology Co., Ltd., Baidu Campus, Shangdi 10th Street, Beijing, China
| | - Boni Su
- China Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute, Beijing, China
| | - Shenglan Xiao
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Hua Qian
- School of Energy and Environment, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
| | - Borong Lin
- Department of Building Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Yuguo Li
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
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22
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Zhang N, Chen W, Chan PT, Yen HL, Tang JWT, Li Y. Close contact behavior in indoor environment and transmission of respiratory infection. INDOOR AIR 2020; 30:645-661. [PMID: 32259319 DOI: 10.1111/ina.12673] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2019] [Revised: 02/29/2020] [Accepted: 03/25/2020] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Close contact was first identified as the primary route of transmission for most respiratory infections in the early 20th century. In this review, we synthesize the existing understanding of the mechanisms of close contact transmission. We focus on two issues: the mechanism of transmission in close contact, namely the transmission of the expired particles between two people, and the physical parameters of close contact that affect the exposure of particles from one individual to another, or how the nature of close contact plays a role in transmission. We propose the existence of three sub-routes of transmission: short-range airborne, large droplets, and immediate body-surface contact. We also distinguish a "body contact," which is defined with an interpersonal distance of zero, from a close contact. We demonstrate herein that the short-range airborne sub-route may be most common. The timescales over which data should be collected to assess the transmission risk during close contact events are much shorter than those required for the distant airborne or fomite routes. The current paucity of high-resolution data over short distances and timescales makes it very difficult to assess the risk of infection in these circumstances.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nan Zhang
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Wenzhao Chen
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Pak-To Chan
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Hui-Ling Yen
- School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Julian Wei-Tze Tang
- Clinical Microbiology, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, Leicester, UK
- Respiratory Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Yuguo Li
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
- School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
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23
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Hosein HI, Moore MD, Abdel-Moneim AS. Known SARS-CoV-2 infections: The tip of an important iceberg. Int J Health Plann Manage 2020; 35:1270-1273. [PMID: 32557774 PMCID: PMC7323144 DOI: 10.1002/hpm.3006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2020] [Revised: 05/04/2020] [Accepted: 05/23/2020] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Hosein I Hosein
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Beni-Suef University, Beni-Suef, Egypt
| | - Matthew D Moore
- Department of Food Science, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Ahmed S Abdel-Moneim
- Department of Microbiology, College of Medicine, Taif University, Al-Taif, Saudi Arabia.,Department of Virology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Beni-Suef University, Beni-Suef, Egypt
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24
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Zhao P, Zhang N, Li Y. A Comparison of Infection Venues of COVID-19 Case Clusters in Northeast China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:E3955. [PMID: 32503192 PMCID: PMC7312430 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17113955] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2020] [Revised: 05/30/2020] [Accepted: 06/01/2020] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
The world has been suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic since late 2019. In this study, we compared various types of infection locations in which COVID-19 cases clustered, based on the data from three adjacent provinces in Northeast China. The collected data include all officially reported cases in this area until 8 March 2020. We explored the associations between the cases and the frequency of infection locations. The COVID-19 epidemic situation was worse in Heilongjiang Province than in Liaoning and Jilin Provinces. Most clustered cases occurred in individual families and/or between relatives. The transmission in public venues served as a hub for transmitting the disease to other families and results in new clusters. The public transport spread the infection over long distances by transporting infected individuals, and most infections did not seem to occur within vehicles. This field study shows the effect of indoor environments on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and our data may be useful in developing guidance for future disease prevention and control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pengcheng Zhao
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China; (N.Z.); (Y.L.)
| | - Nan Zhang
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China; (N.Z.); (Y.L.)
| | - Yuguo Li
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China; (N.Z.); (Y.L.)
- School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China
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