Systematic Review to Update 'Value of a Statistical Life' Estimates for Australia

What is the economic and social return on investment for telephone cancer information and support services in Australia? An evaluative social return on investment study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Over 50% of people affected by cancer report unmet support needs. To address unmet information and psychological needs, non-government organisations such as Cancer Councils (Australia) have developed state-based telephone cancer information and support services. Due to competing demands, evidence of the value of these services is needed to ensure that future investment makes the best use of scarce resources. This research aims to determine the costs and broader economic and social value of a telephone support service, to inform future funding and service provision.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A codesigned, evaluative social return on investment analysis (SROI) will be conducted to estimate and compare the costs and monetised benefits of Cancer Council Victoria's (CCV) telephone support line, 13 11 20, over 1-year and 3-year benefit periods. Nine studies will empirically estimate the parameters to inform the SROI and calculate the ratio (economic and social value to value invested): step 1 mapping outcomes (in-depth analysis of CCV's 13 11 20 recorded call data; focus groups and interviews); step 2 providing evidence of outcomes (comparative survey of people affected by cancer who do and do not call CCV's 13 11 20; general public survey); step 3 valuing the outcomes (financial proxies, value games); step 4 establishing the impact (Delphi); step 5 calculating the net benefit and step 6 service improvement (discrete choice experiment (DCE), 'what if' analysis). Qualitative (focus groups, interviews) and quantitative studies (natural language processing, cross-sectional studies, Delphi) and economic techniques (willingness-to-pay, financial proxies, value games, DCE) will be applied.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval for each of the studies will be sought independently as the project progresses. So far, ethics approval has been granted for the first two studies. As each study analysis is completed, results will be disseminated through presentation, conferences, publications and reports to the partner organisations.

The economic costs of alcohol-related harms at the local level in New South Wales

INTRODUCTION

Alcohol is a harmful, toxic and addictive substance that causes many diseases and injuries. Alcohol use also incurs a financial cost to the health care system and wider economy. This project aimed to undertake a cost impact analysis of alcohol-related harms at the local level in New South Wales (NSW). The alcohol-related harms costing model is an interactive tool designed for use by local health districts, stakeholders such as Liquor and Gaming NSW, NSW Independent Liquor and Gaming Authority and community stakeholders.

METHODS

Costs included in the analysis were alcohol-related hospitalisations, deaths, crimes, emergency department attendances, outpatient presentations and their impacts on productivity. Two local government areas (LGA) were used as case studies to demonstrate local impacts.

RESULTS

In 2019-2020, the total cost of alcohol-related harms for NSW was estimated at $9 billion, at a rate of $120.3 million per 100,000 population. The total costs were comprised of alcohol-attributable premature mortality ($8.3 billion), non-fatal health care costs ($275 million) and crime costs ($457 million). A comparative analysis of two case study LGAs estimated that alcohol-related harms cost $195 million for the Northern Beaches LGA and $351 million for the Central Coast LGA.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

This research has developed a 'proof-of-concept' model to estimate the cost of alcohol-related harms at the local level in Australia, empowering health agencies and local community stakeholders to use economic evidence in their submissions in response to new liquor licence applications and other policies that impact their local community. This economic evidence can be used to improve the quality of decisions on alcohol regulation and policies. There are a number of future research opportunities that would enhance the economic evidence available to liquor licensing decision-makers.

Assessment of health impacts and costs attributable to air pollution in urban areas using two different approaches. A case study in the Western Balkans

In this study, two different air quality impact assessment methodologies were adopted and combined with a sensitivity analysis to estimate the unit costs. Air pollution health impact (mortality) assessment was carried out using one methodology based on log-linear concentration response functions (CRF) and another relying on the integrated exposure response curve (IER) from the Global Burden of Disease. Morbidity impacts were estimated with the CRF approach only. To assess the inequalities between low and high income countries, an area of low-medium income countries with a critical air pollution situation, was selected. The health impact and related external costs attributable to air pollution in 2019 were assessed in 30 urban areas of the Western Balkans region, one of Europe's air pollution hot spots. The evaluation was based on PM2.5, O3 and NO2 concentrations in background sites from official monitoring networks. In 2019, the cost of mortality attributable to PM2.5 in 26 urban areas was 7.8 and 9.0 billion Euro according to IER and CRF methodologies, respectively. The cost of O3 associated with all-cause mortality estimated with the CRF methodology in 17 urban areas was 1.0 billion Euro while the one attributable to NO2 pollution in 28 urban areas was 1.5 billion Euro. The study results suggest that the economic burden of air pollution in the Western Balkans is higher in terms of GDP than the one observed in EU27 in the same time window. The study concludes that CRF and IER methodologies are coherent, because the discrepancy in the results are explained by the differences in the assessed health outcomes. The two approaches are complementary because the combination of them makes it possible to obtain a wider range of outcomes. In addition, despite the different causes of death considered, the comparison between them is useful for cross-validation.

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of brief aftercare interventions following hospital-treated self-harm

BACKGROUND

Prior self-harm represents the most significant risk factor for future self-harm or suicide.

AIM

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a theoretical brief aftercare intervention (involving brief follow-up contact, care coordination and safety planning), following a hospital-treated self-harm episode, for reducing repeated self-harm within the Australian context.

METHOD

We employed economic modelling techniques to undertake: (a) a return-on-investment analysis, which compared the cost-savings generated by the intervention with the overall cost of implementing the intervention; and (b) a cost-utility analysis, which compared the net costs of the intervention with health outcomes measured in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). We considered cost offsets associated with hospital admission for self-harm and the cost of suicide over a period of 10 years in the base case analysis. Uncertainty and one-way sensitivity analyses were also conducted.

RESULTS

The brief aftercare intervention resulted in net cost-savings of AUD$7.5 M (95% uncertainty interval: -56.2 M to 15.1 M) and was associated with a gain of 222 (95% uncertainty interval: 45 to 563) QALYs over a 10-year period. The estimated return-on-investment ratio for the intervention's modelled cost in relation to cost-savings was 1.58 (95% uncertainty interval: -0.17 to 5.33). Eighty-seven per cent of uncertainty iterations showed that the intervention could be considered cost-effective, either through cost-savings or with an acceptable cost-effectiveness ratio of 50 000 per QALY gained. The results remained robust across sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

A theoretical brief aftercare intervention is highly likely to be cost-effective for preventing suicide and self-harm among individuals with a history of self-harm.

Exploring the Health and Economic Burden Among Truck Drivers in Australia: A Health Economic Modelling Study

Background The transport and logistics industry contributes to a significant proportion of the Australian economy. However, few studies have explored the economic and clinical burden attributed to poor truck driver health. We therefore estimated the work-related mortality burden among truck drivers over a 10-year period. Methods Dynamic life table modelling was used to simulate the follow-up of the Australian male working-age population (aged 15-65 years) over a 10-year period of follow-up (2021-2030). The model estimated the number of deaths occurring among the Australian working population, as well as deaths occurring for male truck drivers. Data from the Driving Health study and other published sources were used to inform work-related mortality and associated productivity loss, hospitalisations and medication costs, patient utilities and the value of statistical life year (VoSLY). All outcomes were discounted by 5% per annum. Results Over 10 years, poor truck driver health was associated with a loss of 21,173 years of life lived (discounted), or 18,294 QALYs (discounted). Healthcare costs amounted to AU$485 million (discounted) over this period. From a broader, societal perspective, a total cost of AU$2.6 billion (discounted) in lost productivity and AU$4.7 billion in lost years of life was estimated over a 10-year period. Scenario analyses supported the robustness of our findings. Conclusions The health and economic consequences of poor driver health are significant, and highlight the need for interventions to reduce the burden of work-related injury or disease for truck drivers and other transport workers.

The societal value of SARS-CoV-2 booster vaccination in Indonesia

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the expected socio-economic value of booster vaccination in terms of averted deaths and averted closures of businesses and schools using simulation modelling.

METHODS

The value of booster vaccination in Indonesia is estimated by comparing simulated societal costs under a twelve-month, 187-million-dose Moderna booster vaccination campaign to costs without boosters. The costs of an epidemic and its mitigation consist of lost lives, economic closures and lost education; cost-minimising non-pharmaceutical mitigation is chosen for each scenario.

RESULTS

The cost-minimising non-pharmaceutical mitigation depends on the availability of vaccines: the differences between the two scenarios are 14 to 19 million years of in-person education and $153 to $204 billion in economic activity. The value of the booster campaign ranges from $2,500 ($1,400-$4,100) to $2,800 ($1,700-$4,600) per dose in the first year, depending on life-year valuations.

CONCLUSIONS

The societal benefits of booster vaccination are substantial. Much of the value of vaccination resides in the reduced need for costly non-pharmaceutical mitigation. We propose cost minimisation as a tool for policy decision-making and valuation of vaccination, taking into account all socio-economic costs, and not averted deaths alone.

A state-wide implementation of a whole of hospital sepsis pathway with a mortality based cost-effectiveness analysis from a healthcare sector perspective

With global estimates of 15 million cases of sepsis annually, together with a 24% in-hospital mortality rate, this condition comes at a high cost to both the patient and to the health services delivering care. This translational research determined the cost-effectiveness of state-wide implementation of a whole of hospital Sepsis Pathway in reducing mortality and/or hospital admission costs from a healthcare sector perspective, and report the cost of implementation over 12-months. A non-randomised stepped wedge cluster implementation study design was used to implement an existing Sepsis Pathway ("Think sepsis. Act fast") across 10 of Victoria's public health services, comprising 23 hospitals, which provide hospital care to 63% of the State's population, or 15% of the Australian population. The pathway utilised a nurse led model with early warning and severity criteria, and actions to be initiated within 60 minutes of sepsis recognition. Pathway elements included oxygen administration; blood cultures (x2); venous blood lactate; fluid resuscitation; intravenous antibiotics, and increased monitoring. At baseline there were 876 participants (392 female (44.7%), mean 68.4 years); and during the intervention, there were 1,476 participants (684 female (46.3%), mean 66.8 years). Mortality significantly reduced from 11.4% (100/876) at baseline to 5.8% (85/1,476) during implementation (p>0.001). Respectively, at baseline and intervention the average length of stay was 9.1 (SD 10.3) and 6.2 (SD 7.9) days, and cost was $AUD22,107 (SD $26,937) and $14,203 (SD $17,611) per patient, with a significant 2.9 day reduction in length of stay (-2.9; 95%CI -3.7 to -2.2, p<0.01) and $7,904 reduction in cost (-$7,904; 95%CI -$9,707 to -$6,100, p<0.01). The Sepsis Pathway was a dominant cost-effective intervention due to reduced cost and reduced mortality. Cost of implementation was $1,845,230. In conclusion, a well-resourced state-wide Sepsis Pathway implementation initiative can save lives and dramatically reduce the health service cost per admission.

Cost-effectiveness of media reporting guidelines for the prevention of suicide

INTRODUCTION

Media guidelines for the responsible reporting of suicide are a recognized universal suicide prevention intervention. While implemented in numerous countries, including Australia, little is known about whether they are cost-effective. We aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of Mindframe, the national initiative implementing media guidelines in Australia.

METHOD

We conducted a modelled economic evaluation (5-year time-horizon) incorporating two types of economic analysis: (i) return-on-investment (ROI) comparing estimated cost savings from the intervention to the total intervention cost, and (ii) cost-effectiveness analysis comparing the net intervention costs to health outcomes: suicide deaths prevented and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). We also included uncertainty analyses to propagate parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of the model outputs to changes in input parameters and assumptions.

RESULTS

The estimated ROI ratio for the main analysis was 94:1 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 37 to 170). The intervention was associated with cost savings of A$596M (95% UI: A$228M to A$1,081M), 139 (95% UI: 55 to 252) suicides prevented and 107 (95% UI: 42 to 192) QALYs gained. The intervention was dominant, or cost-saving, compared with no intervention with results being robust to sensitivity analysis but varying based on the conservativeness of the parameters entered.

CONCLUSION

Mindframe was found to be cost-saving, and therefore, worthy of investment and inclusion as part of national suicide prevention strategies.

The hospitalisations for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, and emergency department presentations and economic burden of bushfires in Australia between 2021 and 2030: A modelling study

BACKGROUND

The health and environmental impacts of bushfires results in substantial economic costs to society. The present analysis sought to estimate the burden of bushfires in Australia over ten years from 2021 to 2030 inclusive.

METHODS

A dynamic model with yearly cycles was constructed to simulate follow-up of the entire Australian population from 2021 to 2030, capturing deaths and years of life lived. Estimated numbers of bushfire-related-deaths, costs of related-hospitalisations, and broader economic costs were derived from published sources. A 5% annual discount rate was applied to all costs incurred and life years lived from 2022 onwards.

RESULTS

Over the ten years from 2021 to 2030, the modelled analysis predicted that 2418 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2412 - 2422] lives would be lost to bushfires, as well as 8590 [95% CI 8573 - 8606] years of life lost (discounted). Healthcare costs arising from deaths for smoke-related conditions, hospitalisations amounted to AUD $110 million [95% CI 91-129 million] (discounted). The impact on gross domestic product (GDP) totalled AUD $17.2 billion. A hypothetical intervention that reduces the impact of bushfires by 10% would save $11 million in healthcare costs and $1.7 billion in GDP.

CONCLUSIONS

The health and economic burden of bushfires in Australia looms large during 2021 and 2030. This underscores the importance of actions to mitigate bushfire risk. The findings are useful for the future design and delivery and help policy makers to make informed decisions about investment in strategies to reduce the incidence and severity of future bushfires.

Estimating deaths averted and cost per life saved by scaling up mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in low-income and lower-middle-income countries in the COVID-19 Omicron variant era: a modelling study

OBJECTIVES

While almost 60% of the world has received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, the global distribution of vaccination has not been equitable. Only 4% of the population of low-income countries (LICs) has received a full primary vaccine series, compared with over 70% of the population of high-income nations.

DESIGN

We used economic and epidemiological models, parameterised with public data on global vaccination and COVID-19 deaths, to estimate the potential benefits of scaling up vaccination programmes in LICs and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) in 2022 in the context of global spread of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV2.

SETTING

Low-income and lower-middle-income nations.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Outcomes were expressed as number of avertable deaths through vaccination, costs of scale-up and cost per death averted. We conducted sensitivity analyses over a wide range of parameter estimates to account for uncertainty around key inputs.

FINDINGS

Globally, universal vaccination in LIC/LMIC with three doses of an mRNA vaccine would result in an estimated 1.5 million COVID-19 deaths averted with a total estimated cost of US$61 billion and an estimated cost-per-COVID-19 death averted of US$40 800 (sensitivity analysis range: US$7400-US$81 500). Lower estimated infection fatality ratios, higher cost-per-dose and lower vaccine effectiveness or uptake lead to higher cost-per-death averted estimates in the analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Scaling up COVID-19 global vaccination would avert millions of COVID-19 deaths and represents a reasonable investment in the context of the value of a statistical life. Given the magnitude of expected mortality facing LIC/LMIC without vaccination, this effort should be an urgent priority.

Health and Economic Burden of Seven Foodborne Diseases in Denmark, 2019

We ranked seven foodborne pathogens in Denmark on the basis of their health and economic impact on society in 2019. We estimated burden of disease of infections with Campylobacter spp., Salmonella spp., Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC), Yersinia enterocolitica, Listeria monocytogenes, norovirus, and hepatitis A virus in terms of incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and economic burden in terms of direct and indirect health costs. These seven pathogens accounted for 268,372 cases, 98 deaths, and 3121 DALYs, and led to a total expenditure of 434 million Euro in 1 year in a country with 5.8 million citizens. Foodborne infections by Campylobacter, Salmonella, and norovirus caused the most DALYs, whereas Campylobacter, and norovirus and STEC had the higher costs. A combination of disease burden and cost of illness estimates is useful to inform policymaking and establish food safety priorities at the national level.

Cost-Benefit and Cost-Utility Analyses to Demonstrate the Potential Value-for-Money of Supermarket Shelf Tags Promoting Healthier Packaged Products in Australia

The supermarket environment impacts the healthiness of food purchased and consumed. Shelf tags that alert customers to healthier packaged products can improve the healthiness of overall purchases. This study assessed the potential value-for-money of implementing a three-year shelf tag intervention across all major supermarket chains in Australia. Cost-benefit analyses (CBA) and cost-utility analyses (CUA) were conducted based on results of a 12-week non-randomised controlled trial of a shelf tag intervention in seven Australian supermarkets. The change in energy density of all packaged foods purchased during the trial was used to estimate population-level changes in mean daily energy intake. A multi-state, multiple-cohort Markov model estimated the subsequent obesity-related health and healthcare cost outcomes over the lifetime of the 2019 Australian population. The CBA and CUA took societal and healthcare sector perspectives, respectively. The intervention was estimated to produce a mean reduction in population body weight of 1.09 kg. The net present value of the intervention was approximately AUD 17 billion (B). Over 98% of the intervention costs were borne by supermarkets. CUA findings were consistent with the CBA-the intervention was dominant, producing both health benefits and cost-savings. Shelf tags are likely to offer excellent value-for-money from societal and healthcare sector perspectives.

A Dynamic Approach to Economic Priority Setting to Invest in Youth Mental Health and Guide Local Implementation: Economic Protocol for Eight System Dynamics Policy Models

BACKGROUND

Mental illness costs the world economy over US2.5 Bn each year, including premature mortality, morbidity, and productivity losses. Multisector approaches are required to address the systemic drivers of mental health and ensure adequate service provision. There is an important role for economics to support priority setting, identify best value investments and inform optimal implementation. Mental health can be defined as a complex dynamic system where decision makers are challenged to prospectively manage the system over time. This protocol describes the approach to equip eight system dynamics (SD) models across Australia to support priority setting and guide portfolio investment decisions, tailored to local implementation context.

METHODS

As part of a multidisciplinary team, three interlinked protocols are developed; (i) the participatory process to codesign the models with local stakeholders and identify interventions for implementation, (ii) the technical protocol to develop the SD models to simulate the dynamics of the local population, drivers of mental health, the service system and clinical outcomes, and (iii) the economic protocol to detail how the SD models will be equipped to undertake a suite of economic analysis, incorporating health and societal perspectives. Models will estimate the cost of mental illness, inclusive of service costs (health and other sectors, where necessary), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost, productivity costs and carer costs. To assess the value of investing (disinvesting) in interventions, economic analysis will include return-on-investment, cost-utility, cost benefit, and budget impact to inform affordability. Economic metrics are expected to be dynamic, conditional upon changing population demographics, service system capacities and the mix of interventions when synergetic or antagonistic interactions. To support priority setting, a portfolio approach will identify best value combinations of interventions, relative to a defined budget(s). User friendly dashboards will guide decision makers to use the SD models to inform resource allocation and generate business cases for funding.

DISCUSSION

Equipping SD models to undertake economic analysis is intended to support local priority setting and help optimise implementation regarding the best value mix of investments, timing and scale. The objectives are to improve allocative efficiency, increase mental health and economic productivity.

A cost-benefit analysis framework for preventive health interventions to aid decision-making in Australian governments

Background

Australian governments are increasingly mandating the use of cost–benefit analysis (CBA) to inform the efficient allocation of government resources. CBA is likely to be useful when evaluating preventive health interventions that are often cross-sectoral in nature and require Cabinet approval prior to implementation. This study outlines a CBA framework for the evaluation of preventive health interventions that balances the need for consistency with other agency guidelines whilst adhering to guidelines and conventions for health economic evaluations.

Methods

We analysed CBA and other evaluation guidance documents published by Australian federal and New South Wales (NSW) government departments. Data extraction compared the recommendations made by different agencies and the impact on the analysis of preventive health interventions. The framework specifies a reference case and sensitivity analyses based on the following considerations: (1) applied economic evaluation theory; (2) consistency between CBA across different government departments; (3) the ease of moving from a CBA to a more conventional cost-effectiveness/cost-utility analysis framework often used for health interventions; (4) the practicalities of application; and (5) the needs of end users being both Cabinet decision-makers and health policy-makers.

Results

Nine documents provided CBA or relevant economic evaluation guidance. There were differences in terminology and areas of agreement and disagreement between the guidelines. Disagreement between guidelines involved (1) the community included in the societal perspective; (2) the number of options that should be appraised in ex ante analyses; (3) the appropriate time horizon for interventions with longer economic lives; (4) the theoretical basis and value of the discount rate; (5) parameter values for variables such as the value of a statistical life; and (6) the summary measure for decision-making.

Conclusions

This paper addresses some of the methodological challenges that have hindered the use of CBA in prevention by outlining a framework that is consistent with treasury department guidelines whilst considering the unique features of prevention policies. The effective use and implementation of a preventive health CBA framework is likely to require considerable investment of time and resources from state and federal government departments of health and treasury but has the potential to improve decision-making related to preventive health policies and programmes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12961-021-00796-w.