Evaluating Social Distancing Measures and Their Association with the Covid-19 Pandemic in South America

COVID-19 prevention and control effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions-fuzzy-sets qualitative comparative analysis based on 69 countries in the world

Introduction

Coronavirus disease 2019 occurred unexpectedly in late December 2019, it was difficult to immediately develop an effective vaccine or propose targeted medical interventions in the early stages of the outbreak. At this point, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are essential components of the public health response to COVID-19. How to combine different NPIs in the early stages of an outbreak to control the spread of epidemics and ensure that the policy combination does not incur high socio-economic costs became the focus of this study.

Methods

We mainly used the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis to assess the impact of different combinations of NPIs on the effectiveness of control in the COVID-19 pandemic early stage, using open datasets containing case numbers, country populations and policy responses.

Results

We showed that the configuration of high morbidity results includes one, which is the combination of non-strict face covering, social isolation and travel restrictions. The configuration of non-high morbidity results includes three, one is strict mask wearing measures, which alone constitute sufficient conditions for interpreting the results; the second is strict testing and contact tracing, social isolation; the third is strict testing and contact tracing, travel restriction. The results of the robustness test showed that the number, components and consistency of the configurations have not changed after changing the minimum case frequency, which proved that the analysis results are reliable.

Conclusion

In the early stages of the epidemic, the causes of high morbidity are not symmetrical with the causes of non-high morbidity. Strict face covering is the most basic measure required to prevent and control epidemics, and the combination of non-strict face covering and containment is the most important factor leading to poor prevention and control, and the combination of strict containment and proactive pursuit is the way to achieve superior prevention and control, timely and proactive containment strategies have better prevention and control, and should mobilize the public to cooperate.

Depression Symptoms Amongst Older Brazilian and Chinese Women Submitted to Different Social Distancing Measures Rigidness During COVID-19 Outbreak

BACKGROUND

It is plausible that depression symptoms and disrupting sleep quality were differently affected according to the rigidity of social distancing during the COVID-19 outbreak.

OBJECTIVE

To describe and compare depression symptoms and sleep quality amongst older Brazilian and Chinese women who were submitted to different social distancing measures (less rigid (Brazil) versus more rigid (China)).

METHODS

This observational cross-sectional study assessed urban older women who underwent home confinement with less (Brazil; n=1015) or more (China; n=644) rigidity. Socio-demographic correlates, general health information, depression symptoms [Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS- 15)], and sleep quality [Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI)] were assessed through interviews.

RESULTS

1659 older women (66.74 ± 5.48 years old; 38.8% Chinese; 61.2% Brazilian) were included for analysis. 22% of Brazilians and 19.6% of Chinese women presented depression symptoms. The frequency of bad sleepers was 56.4% and 37.7% amongst Brazilian and Chinese older women, respectively. After adjusting for socio-demographic variables, general health status, and PSQI global score, Chinese women had a significantly higher score of depression symptoms (3.88 ± 0.13) compared to the Brazilians (3.26 ± 0.10; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The frequency of poor sleep quality was very high regardless of the country. After adjusting for confounders and sleep quality, older Chinese women had a significantly superior score of depression symptoms exacerbating psychological distress by confinement rigidness.

The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Early Adolescent Fractures in the Republic of Korea

Background and Objectives: Restrictions on daily activities to slow down the propagation of COVID-19 have changed the epidemiological pattern of pediatric fractures in many countries. However, the effect of the pandemic on pediatric fractures has not been fully studied. In this study, we investigated the impact of COVID-19 on early adolescent fractures in Korea. Materials and methods: We conducted a retrospective follow-up on a nationwide cohort of Korean early adolescents born between 2006 and 2009. The prevalence and incidence of pediatric fractures and the frequency of surgical treatment were compared between two different eras. Results: The prevalence and incidence of fractures during the pandemic have both shown a significant decrease: prevalence reduced from 34,626 to 24,789 (p < 0.001), while incidence decreased from 29,804 to 18,898 (p < 0.001). Considering sex, the shift in fracture prevalence was statistically significant (p = 0.020), whereas the incidence was not (p = 0.862). The decline in both fracture prevalence and incidence exhibited significant variation across birth year groups (prevalence, p < 0.001; incidence, p < 0.001), with a more pronounced reduction observed in the older age groups. While the proportion of patients who required surgeries has increased, the mean frequency of surgical treatment per patient remained at a similar level (by prevalence, p = 0.181; by incidence, p = 0.735). The decline in both fracture prevalence and incidence has shown significant variation in relation to fracture sites (prevalence, p < 0.001; incidence, p < 0.001), with a decrease in distal limb fractures and an increase in forearm and axial body fractures. Conclusions: The pediatric fracture pattern in Korea has been notably influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, warranting further investigation into causal factors. Our findings should help predict epidemiology in the post-pandemic period and thus aid policymaking and patient management.

Development of multi-scale indices of human mobility restriction during the COVID-19 based on air quality from local and global NO2 concentration

This study investigated whether variability in air quality, especially related to vehicular emissions, during the COVID-19 pandemic could indicate social distancing. Data from in situ measurements and satellite estimates were used. The study areas were São Paulo, Brazil, and Bologna, Italy. We focused our analysis on NO2, a combustion-derived pollutant, because of its availability in surface stations and satellite tracking, and because it has a short atmospheric lifetime. The analyses included graphical, statistical, and wavelet transform-based approaches to understand NO2 concentrations before and during the pandemic. After confirming the reduction in vehicular emissions during the pandemic, we created normalized indices to assess the social remoteness in 2020 in different locations, with a focus on São Paulo and Bologna. These indices were compared to existing indices based on cell phone mobility. The indices proposed in this study suffered high sensitivity to social distance compared to existing ones and helped to understand the actual application of social distance and contamination rates, considering the various dimensions of the problem.

Non-rigorous versus rigorous home confinement differently impacts mental health, quality of life and behaviors. Which one was better? A cross-sectional study with older Brazilian adults during covid-19 first wave

BACKGROUND

The implementation of social distancing measures during covid-19 influenced health outcomes and population´s behaviors, and its rigidity was very different across countries. We aimed to verify the association between the rigidity of social distancing measures of covid-19 first wave with depression symptoms, quality of life and sleep quality in older adults.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional study including 1023 older adults (90% women; 67.68 ± 5.92 years old) of a community-based program in Fortaleza (Brazil). Dependent variables (depression symptoms, sleep quality, and quality of life) were measured through phone calls along June 2020, during the first covid-19 wave. Confinement rigidity (non-rigorous and rigorous) was considered as independent variable. Sociodemographic characteristics (sex, marital status, scholarity, and ethnicity), number of health conditions, nutritional status, movement behavior (physical activity and sitting time), technological skills, and pet ownership were considered as confounding variables. A binomial logistic regression (odds ratio [OR]) was performed to verify the association of confinement rigidity and depression symptoms, sleep quality, and quality of life, adjusted by confounding variables.

RESULTS

Older adults who adopted a less rigid lockdown had a higher frequency of depression symptoms, worse perception of quality of life, and bad sleep quality (p < 0.001). Confinement rigidity was able to explain the probability of depression symptoms occurrence (OR: 2.067 [95% CI: 1.531-2.791]; p < 0.001), worse quality of life (OR: 1.488 [95% CI: 1.139-1.944]; p < 0.05), and bad sleep quality (OR: 1.839 [95% CI: 1.412-2.395]; p < 0.001). Even adjusted by confounding variables, confinement rigidity was able to explain the poor outcomes analyzed in older adults.

CONCLUSION

Our findings showed that less rigid lockdown was associated with a superior frequency of depression symptoms, worse sleep quality, and lower perception of quality of life in older adults. Therefore, our study could improve comprehension regarding the impact of social distancing measures rigidity in health-related conditions and in the context of covid-19 and other similar pandemic situations.

Impact of mobility restrictions on NO2 concentrations in key Latin American cities during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic

Between March and June 2020, activity in the major cities of Latin America declined due to containment efforts implemented by local governments to avoid the rapid spread of COVID-19. Our study compared 2020 with the previous year and demonstrated a considerable drop in tropospheric NO₂ levels obtained by the SENTINEL 5P satellite in major Latin American cities. Lima (47.5%), Santiago (36.1%), São Paulo (27%), Rio de Janeiro (23%), Quito (18.6%), Bogota (17.5%), Buenos Aires (16.6%), Guayaquil (15.3%), Medellin (14.2%), La Paz (9.5%), Belo Horizonte (7.8%), Mexico (7.6%) and Brasilia (5.9%) registered statistically significant decreases in NO₂ concentrations during the study period. In addition, we analyzed mobility data from Google and Apple reports as well as meteorological information from atmospheric reanalysis data along with satellite fields between 2011 and 2020, and performed a refined multivariate analysis (non-negative matrix approximation) to show that this decrease was associated with a reduction in population mobility rather than meteorological factors. Our findings corroborate the argument that confinement scenarios may indicate how air pollutant concentrations can be effectively reduced and managed.

The influencing factors of health-related quality of life of the general population of Iran during the COVID-19 Pandemic

COVID-19 is a global challenge that negatively affects the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of the general population. The current study aimed to evaluate HRQoL and its associated factors among the Iranian general population during the COVID-19 pandemic. The data were collected in 2021 using the EuroQol 5-Dimension 3-Level (EQ-5D-3L) and EQ-5D Visual Analog Scale (EQ VAS) questionnaires through an online survey. Participants were recruited via social media from the Fars province. The multiple binary logistic regression model was used to identify factors influencing participants' HRQoL. Kolmogorov-Smirnov, the t-test, ANOVA, and the chi-square test were used. All tests were conducted at a significance level of 5% using Stata 14.2 and SPSS 16. A total of 1,198 participants were involved in this cross-sectional study. The mean age of participants was 33.3 (SD:10.2), and more than half were women (55.6%). The mean EQ-5D-3L index value and EQ-VAS of the respondents were 0.80 and 77.53, respectively. The maximum scores of the EQ-5D-3L and EQ-VAS in the present study were 1 and 100, respectively. The most frequently reported problems were anxiety/depression (A/D) (53.7%), followed by pain/discomfort (P/D) (44.2%). Logistic regression models showed that the odds of reporting problems on the A/D dimension increased significantly with supplementary insurance, including concern about getting COVID-19, hypertension, and asthma, by 35% (OR = 1.35; P = 0.03), 2% (OR = 1.02; P = 0.02), 83% (OR = 1.83; P = 0.02), and 6.52 times (OR = 6.52; P = 0.01), respectively. The odds of having problems on the A/D dimension were significantly lower among male respondents, those in the housewives + students category, and employed individuals by 54% (OR = 0.46; P = 0.04), 38% (OR = 0.62; P = 0.02) and 41% (OR = 0.59; P = 0.03), respectively. Moreover, the odds of reporting a problem on the P/D dimension decreased significantly in those belonging in a lower age group and with people who were not worried about getting COVID-19 by 71% (OR = 0.29; P = 0.03) and 65% (OR = 0.35; P = 0.01), respectively. The findings of this study could be helpful for policy-making and economic evaluations. A significant percentage of participants (53.7%) experienced psychological problems during the pandemic. Therefore, effective interventions to improve the quality of life of these vulnerable groups in society are essential.

Reconceptualizing successful pandemic preparedness and response: A feminist perspective

Pandemic preparedness and COVID-19 response indicators focus on public health outcomes (such as infections, case fatalities, and vaccination rates), health system capacity, and/or the effects of the pandemic on the economy, yet this avoids more political questions regarding how responses were mobilized. Pandemic preparedness country rankings have been called into question due to their inability to predict COVID-19 response and outcomes, and COVID-19 response indicators have ignored one of the most well documented secondary effects of the pandemic - its disproportionate effects on women. This paper analyzes pandemic preparedness and response indicators from a feminist perspective to understand how indicators might consider the secondary effects of the pandemic on women and other equity deserving groups. Following a discussion of the tensions that exist between feminist methodologies and the reliance on indicators by policymakers in preparing and responding to health emergencies, we assess the strengths and weakness of current pandemic preparedness and COVID-19 response indicators. The risk with existing pandemic preparedness and response indicators is that they give only limited attention to secondary effects of pandemics and inequities in terms of who is disproportionately affected. There is an urgent need to reconceptualize what 'successful' pandemic preparedness and response entails, moving beyond epidemiological and economic measurements. We suggest how efforts to design COVID response indicators on gender inclusion could inform pandemic preparedness and associated indicators.

COVID-19 health policy evaluation: integrating health and economic perspectives with a data envelopment analysis approach

The COVID-19 pandemic is a global challenge to humankind. To improve the knowledge regarding relevant, efficient and effective COVID-19 measures in health policy, this paper applies a multi-criteria evaluation approach with population, health care, and economic datasets from 19 countries within the OECD. The comparative investigation was based on a Data Envelopment Analysis approach as an efficiency measurement method. Results indicate that on the one hand, factors like population size, population density, and country development stage, did not play a major role in successful pandemic management. On the other hand, pre-pandemic healthcare system policies were decisive. Healthcare systems with a primary care orientation and a high proportion of primary care doctors compared to specialists were found to be more efficient than systems with a medium level of resources that were partly financed through public funding and characterized by a high level of access regulation. Roughly two weeks after the introduction of ad hoc measures, e.g., lockdowns and quarantine policies, we did not observe a direct impact on country-level healthcare efficiency, while delayed lockdowns led to significantly lower efficiency levels during the first COVID-19 wave in 2020. From an economic perspective, strategies without general lockdowns were identified as a more efficient strategy than the full lockdown strategy. Additionally, governmental support of short-term work is promising. Improving the efficiency of COVID-19 countermeasures is crucial in saving as many lives as possible with limited resources.

Test positivity - Evaluation of a new metric to assess epidemic dispersal mediated by non-symptomatic cases

Epidemic control may be hampered when the percentage of asymptomatic cases is high. Seeking remedies for this problem, test positivity was explored between the first 60 to 90 epidemic days in six countries that reported their first COVID-19 case between February and March 2020: Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Cuba, Mexico, and Uruguay. Test positivity (TP) is the percentage of test-positive individuals reported on a given day out of all individuals tested the same day. To generate both country-specific and multi-country information, this study was implemented in two stages. First, the epidemiologic data of the country infected last (Uruguay) were analyzed. If at least one TP-related analysis yielded a statistically significant relationship, later assessments would investigate the six countries. The Uruguayan data indicated (i) a positive correlation between daily TP and daily new cases (r = 0.75); (ii) a negative correlation between TP and the number of tests conducted per million inhabitants (TPMI, r = -0.66); and (iii) three temporal stages, which differed from one another in both TP and TPMI medians (p < 0.01) and, together, revealed a negative relationship between TPMI and TP. No significant relationship was found between TP and the number of active or recovered patients. The six countries showed a positive correlation between TP and the number of deaths/million inhabitants (DMI, r = 0.65, p < 0.01). With one exception -a country where isolation was not pursued-, all countries showed a negative correlation between TP and TPMI (r = 0.74). The temporal analysis of country-specific policies revealed four patterns, characterized by: (1) low TPMI and high DMI, (2) high TPMI and low DMI; (3) an intermediate pattern, and (4) high TPMI and high DMI. Findings support the hypothesis that test positivity may guide epidemiologic policy-making, provided that policy-related factors are considered and high-resolution geographical data are utilized.