Agreement between Type 2 Diabetes Risk Scales in a Caucasian Population: A Systematic Review and Report

Optimizing strategies to identify high risk of developing type 2 diabetes

Introduction

The success of diabetes prevention based on early treatment depends on high-quality screening. This study compared the diagnostic properties of currently recommended screening strategies against alternative score-based rules to identify those at high risk of developing diabetes.

Methods

The study used data from ELSA-Brasil, a contemporary cohort followed up for a mean (standard deviation) of 7.4 (0.54) years, to develop risk functions with logistic regression to predict incident diabetes based on socioeconomic, lifestyle, clinical, and laboratory variables. We compared the predictive capacity of these functions against traditional pre-diabetes cutoffs of fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h plasma glucose (2hPG), and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) alone or combined with recommended screening questionnaires.

Results

Presenting FPG > 100 mg/dl predicted 76.6% of future cases of diabetes in the cohort at the cost of labeling 40.6% of the sample as high risk. If FPG testing was performed only in those with a positive American Diabetes Association (ADA) questionnaire, labeling was reduced to 12.2%, but only 33% of future cases were identified. Scores using continuously expressed clinical and laboratory variables produced a better balance between detecting more cases and labeling fewer false positives. They consistently outperformed strategies based on categorical cutoffs. For example, a score composed of both clinical and laboratory data, calibrated to detect a risk of future diabetes ≥20%, predicted 54% of future diabetes cases, labeled only 15.3% as high risk, and, compared to the FPG ≥ 100 mg/dl strategy, nearly doubled the probability of future diabetes among screen positives.

Discussion

Currently recommended screening strategies are inferior to alternatives based on continuous clinical and laboratory variables.

Large scale application of the Finnish diabetes risk score in Latin American and Caribbean populations: a descriptive study

Background

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) continues to increase in the Americas. Identifying people at risk for T2D is critical to the prevention of T2D complications, especially cardiovascular disease. This study gauges the ability to implement large population-based organized screening campaigns in 19 Latin American and Caribbean countries to detect people at risk for T2D using the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC).

Methods

This cross-sectional descriptive analysis uses data collected in a sample of men and women 18 years of age or older who completed FINDRISC via eHealth during a Guinness World Record attempt campaign between October 25 and November 1, 2021. FINDRISC is a non-invasive screening tool based on age, body mass index, waist circumference, physical activity, daily intake of fruits and vegetables, history of hyperglycemia, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, and family history of T2D, assigning a score ranging from 0 to 26 points. A cut-off point of ≥ 12 points was considered as high risk for T2D.

Results

The final sample size consisted of 29,662 women (63%) and 17,605 men (27%). In total, 35% of subjects were at risk of T2D. The highest frequency rates (FINDRISC ≥ 12) were observed in Chile (39%), Central America (36.4%), and Peru (36.1%). Chile also had the highest proportion of people having a FINDRISC ≥15 points (25%), whereas the lowest was observed in Colombia (11.3%).

Conclusions

FINDRISC can be easily implemented via eHealth technology over social networks in Latin American and Caribbean populations to detect people with high risk for T2D. Primary healthcare strategies are needed to perform T2D organized screening to deliver early, accessible, culturally sensitive, and sustainable interventions to prevent sequelae of T2D, and reduce the clinical and economic burden of cardiometabolic-based chronic disease.

Assessing racial bias in type 2 diabetes risk prediction algorithms

Risk prediction models for type 2 diabetes can be useful for the early detection of individuals at high risk. However, models may also bias clinical decision-making processes, for instance by differential risk miscalibration across racial groups. We investigated whether the Prediabetes Risk Test (PRT) issued by the National Diabetes Prevention Program, and two prognostic models, the Framingham Offspring Risk Score, and the ARIC Model, demonstrate racial bias between non-Hispanic Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks. We used National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data, sampled in six independent two-year batches between 1999 and 2010. A total of 9,987 adults without a prior diagnosis of diabetes and with fasting blood samples available were included. We calculated race- and year-specific average predicted risks of type 2 diabetes according to the risk models. We compared the predicted risks with observed ones extracted from the US Diabetes Surveillance System across racial groups (summary calibration). All investigated models were found to be miscalibrated with regard to race, consistently across the survey years. The Framingham Offspring Risk Score overestimated type 2 diabetes risk for non-Hispanic Whites and underestimated risk for non-Hispanic Blacks. The PRT and the ARIC models overestimated risk for both races, but more so for non-Hispanic Whites. These landmark models overestimated the risk of type 2 diabetes for non-Hispanic Whites more severely than for non-Hispanic Blacks. This may result in a larger proportion of non-Hispanic Whites being prioritized for preventive interventions, but it also increases the risk of overdiagnosis and overtreatment in this group. On the other hand, a larger proportion of non-Hispanic Blacks may be potentially underprioritized and undertreated.

External validation of the risk prediction model for early diabetic kidney disease in Taiwan population: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to independently and externally validate the Risk Prediction Model for Diabetic Kidney Disease (RPM-DKD) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

DESIGN

This is a retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Outpatient clinics at Lee's United Clinics, Taiwan, China.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 2504 patients (average age 55.44 years, SD, 7.49 years) and 4455 patients (average age 57.88 years, SD, 8.80 years) were included for analysis in the DKD prediction and progression prediction cohorts, respectively.

EXPOSURE

The predicted risk for DKD and DKD progression for each patient were all calculated using the RPM-DKD.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was overall incidence of DKD. Secondary outcomes included DKD progression. The discrimination, calibration and precision of the RPM-DKD score were assessed.

RESULTS

The DKD prediction cohort and progression prediction cohort consisted of patients with 2504 and 4455 T2DM, respectively. The RPM-DKD examined in this study showed moderately discriminative ability with area under the curve ranged from 0.636 to 0.681 for the occurrence of DKD and 0.620 to 0.654 for the progression of DKD. The Hosmer-Lemeshow χ² test indicted the RPM-DKD was not well calibrated for predicting the occurrence of DKD and overestimated the progression of DKD. The precision for predicting the occurrence and progression of DKD were 43.2% and 42.2%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

On external validation, the RPM-DKD cannot accurately predict the risk of DKD occurrence and progression in patients with T2DM.

An Updated Insight Into Molecular Mechanism of Hydrogen Sulfide in Cardiomyopathy and Myocardial Ischemia/Reperfusion Injury Under Diabetes

Cardiovascular diseases are the most common complications of diabetes, and diabetic cardiomyopathy is a major cause of people death in diabetes. Molecular, transcriptional, animal, and clinical studies have discovered numerous therapeutic targets or drugs for diabetic cardiomyopathy. Within this, hydrogen sulfide (H₂S), an endogenous gasotransmitter alongside with nitric oxide (NO) and carbon monoxide (CO), is found to play a critical role in diabetic cardiomyopathy. Recently, the protective roles of H₂S in diabetic cardiomyopathy have attracted enormous attention. In addition, H₂S donors confer favorable effects in myocardial infarction, ischaemia-reperfusion injury, and heart failure under diabetic conditions. Further studies have disclosed that multiplex molecular mechanisms are responsible for the protective effects of H₂S against diabetes-elicited cardiac injury, such as anti-oxidative, anti-apoptotic, anti-inflammatory, and anti-necrotic properties. In this review, we will summarize the current findings on H₂S biology and pharmacology, especially focusing on the novel mechanisms of H₂S-based protection against diabetic cardiomyopathy. Also, the potential roles of H₂S in diabetes-aggravated ischaemia-reperfusion injury are discussed.

Fatty liver index and progression to type 2 diabetes: a 5-year longitudinal study in Spanish workers with pre-diabetes

OBJECTIVE

The main aim of the study was to evaluate the association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), estimated by fatty liver index (FLI), and the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in a large cohort of adult workers with pre-diabetes.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Occupational health services from Spain.

PARTICIPANTS

16 648 adult workers (aged 20-65 years) with pre-diabetes (fasting plasma glucose (FPG) of 100-125 mg/dL).

OUTCOME AND MEASURES

FLI was calculated based on measurements of triglycerides, body mass index, waist circumference and γ-glutamyltransferase. The population was classified into three categories: FLI<30 (no hepatic steatosis), FLI 30-60 (intermediate status) and FLI>60 (hepatic steatosis). Sociodemographic, anthropometric, dietary habits, physical activity and clinical data were collected from all subjects. The incidence rate of T2D was determined after 5 years of follow-up.

RESULTS

After 5 years of follow-up, 3706 of the 16 648 participants (22.2%) were diagnosed with T2D, corresponding to an annual rate of progression of 4.5%. FLI was strongly associated with T2D conversion. The incidence rates of T2D in the FLI<30, FLI 30-60 and FLI>60 groups were significantly different after 5 years of follow-up were 19/6,421 (0.3%), 338/4,318 (7.8%) and 3,349/5,909 (56.7%), respectively. This association remained significant for FLI>60 after adjustment for, age, diet, physical activity, FPG, blood pressure, social class and smoking habits (adjusted HR=6.879; 95% CI 5.873 to 8.057 for men, and HR=5.806; 95% CI 4.863 to 6.932 for women).

CONCLUSION

NAFLD assessed by FLI independently predicted the risk of conversion to T2D among people with pre-diabetes. FLI may be an easily determined and valuable early predictor for T2D in people with pre-diabetes. FLI-based assessment of NAFLD in subjects with pre-diabetes in routine clinical practice could allow the adoption of effective measures to prevent and reduce their progression to T2D.

Lifestyle and Progression to Type 2 Diabetes in a Cohort of Workers with Prediabetes

Background: People with prediabetes have an increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Few studies have evaluated the influence of lifestyle factors on the risk of progression to diabetes and reversion to normoglycemia. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of T2D in a large cohort of workers with prediabetes, and to evaluate the influence of sociodemographic, clinical, metabolic, and lifestyle factors that affect the persistence of prediabetes and the progression to T2D. Methods: A cohort study of 27,844 adult workers (aged 20 to 65 years) from Spain who had prediabetes based on an occupational medical examination from 2012 to 2013. Prediabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) between 100 and 125 mg/dL. At the baseline evaluation, sociodemographic, anthropometric, metabolic, and lifestyle data were collected. At the 5-year follow-up, incident T2D was defined as an FPG of at least 126 mg/dL or initiation of an antidiabetic medication. Results: Among 235,995 initially screened workers, the prevalence of T2D was 14.19% (95% confidence interval (CI) 14.05 to 14.33) and the prevalence of prediabetes was 11.85% (95% CI 11.71 to 11.99). Follow-up data were available for 23,293 individuals with prediabetes. Among them, 36.08% (95% CI 35.46 to 36.70) returned to normoglycemia, 40.92% (95% CI 40.29 to 41.55) had persistent prediabetes, and 23.00% (95% CI 22.46 to 23.54) progressed to T2D. The risk for persistence of prediabetes and for progression to T2D increased with age, body mass index (BMI), triglyceride level, and less than 150 min/week of physical activity. An HbA1c level of 6% or greater was the strongest individual predictor of progression to T2D. Conclusions: Physical activity, diet, smoking, and BMI are modifiable factors that are associated with the persistence of prediabetes and the progression to T2D. The workplace is a feasible setting for the early detection of prediabetes and the promotion of lifestyles that can prevent progression to T2D.