Data-Driven Machine-Learning Methods for Diabetes Risk Prediction

Comparative hepato-ameliorative effects of Bambusa nutans fresh and fermented shoot extracts on STZ induced diabetic LACA mice

Bamboo shoots are nutritionally rich source of antioxidants and bioactive compounds with immense therapeutic potentials. The fresh shoot is acrid and needs to be processed to make it palatable. Fermentation is one the best processing methods for long term storage and make the shoot palatable and enhance taste. This study aims to assess the prophylactic hepatoprotective effects of fresh and fermented B. nutans shoot aqueous extract (200 mg/kg b.w.) in STZ induced diabetic LACA mice. Both extracts effectively improved body weight loss, hyperglycemia, and hepatomegaly. Fresh shoot reduced LDH activity and LPO level by 26.1% and 46.6%, while fermented shoot reduced them by 51.5% and 55.8%, respectively. The fermented shoot extract group demonstrated a noteworthy decrease in liver enzymes (SGPT, SGOT, ALP, and bilirubin levels) and an increase in albumin and A/G ratio, with more substantial improvements compared to the group treated with fresh extract. Additionally, the extracts enhanced antioxidant activities and showed histological improvements in hepatocytes and central vein structure. The findings indicate that both fresh and fermented B. nutans extracts are non-toxic and possess hepatoprotective potential in hyperglycaemic liver dysfunction, with fermented shoot extract exhibiting superior efficacy suggesting its potential as a therapeutic agent for hyperglycemic liver conditions.

Exploratory risk prediction of type II diabetes with isolation forests and novel biomarkers

Type II diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a rising global health burden due to its rapidly increasing prevalence worldwide, and can result in serious complications. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to identify individuals at risk as early as possible to avoid long-term T2DM complications. In this study, we developed an interpretable machine learning model leveraging baseline levels of biomarkers of oxidative stress (OS), inflammation, and mitochondrial dysfunction (MD) for identifying individuals at risk of developing T2DM. In particular, Isolation Forest (iForest) was applied as an anomaly detection algorithm to address class imbalance. iForest was trained on the control group data to detect cases of high risk for T2DM development as outliers. Two iForest models were trained and evaluated through ten-fold cross-validation, the first on traditional biomarkers (BMI, blood glucose levels (BGL) and triglycerides) alone and the second including the additional aforementioned biomarkers. The second model outperformed the first across all evaluation metrics, particularly for F1 score and recall, which were increased from 0.61 ± 0.05 to 0.81 ± 0.05 and 0.57 ± 0.06 to 0.81 ± 0.08, respectively. The feature importance scores identified a novel combination of biomarkers, including interleukin-10 (IL-10), 8-isoprostane, humanin (HN), and oxidized glutathione (GSSG), which were revealed to be more influential than the traditional biomarkers in the outcome prediction. These results reveal a promising method for simultaneously predicting and understanding the risk of T2DM development and suggest possible pharmacological intervention to address inflammation and OS early in disease progression.

Proactive Identification of Patients with Diabetes at Risk of Uncontrolled Outcomes during a Diabetes Management Program: Conceptualization and Development Study Using Machine Learning

BACKGROUND

The growth in the capabilities of telehealth have made it possible to identify individuals with a higher risk of uncontrolled diabetes and provide them with targeted support and resources to help them manage their condition. Thus, predictive modeling has emerged as a valuable tool for the advancement of diabetes management.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to conceptualize and develop a novel machine learning (ML) approach to proactively identify participants enrolled in a remote diabetes monitoring program (RDMP) who were at risk of uncontrolled diabetes at 12 months in the program.

METHODS

Registry data from the Livongo for Diabetes RDMP were used to design separate dynamic predictive ML models to predict participant outcomes at each monthly checkpoint of the participants' program journey (month-n models) from the first day of onboarding (month-0 model) up to the 11th month (month-11 model). A participant's program journey began upon onboarding into the RDMP and monitoring their own blood glucose (BG) levels through the RDMP-provided BG meter. Each participant passed through 12 predicative models through their first year enrolled in the RDMP. Four categories of participant attributes (ie, survey data, BG data, medication fills, and health signals) were used for feature construction. The models were trained using the light gradient boosting machine and underwent hyperparameter tuning. The performance of the models was evaluated using standard metrics, including precision, recall, specificity, the area under the curve, the F1-score, and accuracy.

RESULTS

The ML models exhibited strong performance, accurately identifying observable at-risk participants, with recall ranging from 70% to 94% and precision from 40% to 88% across the 12-month program journey. Unobservable at-risk participants also showed promising performance, with recall ranging from 61% to 82% and precision from 42% to 61%. Overall, model performance improved as participants progressed through their program journey, demonstrating the importance of engagement data in predicting long-term clinical outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

This study explored the Livongo for Diabetes RDMP participants' temporal and static attributes, identification of diabetes management patterns and characteristics, and their relationship to predict diabetes management outcomes. Proactive targeting ML models accurately identified participants at risk of uncontrolled diabetes with a high level of precision that was generalizable through future years within the RDMP. The ability to identify participants who are at risk at various time points throughout the program journey allows for personalized interventions to improve outcomes. This approach offers significant advancements in the feasibility of large-scale implementation in remote monitoring programs and can help prevent uncontrolled glycemic levels and diabetes-related complications. Future research should include the impact of significant changes that can affect a participant's diabetes management.

A feature optimization study based on a diabetes risk questionnaire

Introduction

The prevalence of diabetes, a common chronic disease, has shown a gradual increase, posing substantial burdens on both society and individuals. In order to enhance the effectiveness of diabetes risk prediction questionnaires, optimize the selection of characteristic variables, and raise awareness of diabetes risk among residents, this study utilizes survey data obtained from the risk factor monitoring system of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States.

Methods

Following univariate analysis and meticulous screening, a more refined dataset was constructed. This dataset underwent preprocessing steps, including data distribution standardization, the application of the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) in combination with the Round function for equilibration, and data standardization. Subsequently, machine learning (ML) techniques were employed, utilizing enumerated feature variables to evaluate the strength of the correlation among diabetes risk factors.

Results

The research findings effectively delineated the ranking of characteristic variables that significantly influence the risk of diabetes. Obesity emerges as the most impactful factor, overshadowing other risk factors. Additionally, psychological factors, advanced age, high cholesterol, high blood pressure, alcohol abuse, coronary heart disease or myocardial infarction, mobility difficulties, and low family income exhibit correlations with diabetes risk to varying degrees.

Discussion

The experimental data in this study illustrate that, while maintaining comparable accuracy, optimization of questionnaire variables and the number of questions can significantly enhance efficiency for subsequent follow-up and precise diabetes prevention. Moreover, the research methods employed in this study offer valuable insights into studying the risk correlation of other diseases, while the research results contribute to heightened societal awareness of populations at elevated risk of diabetes.

Diabetes risk prediction model based on community follow-up data using machine learning

Diabetes is a chronic metabolic disease characterized by hyperglycemia, the follow-up management of diabetes patients is mostly in the community, but the relationship between key lifestyle indicators in community follow-up and the risk of diabetes is unclear. In order to explore the association between key life characteristic indicators of community follow-up and the risk of diabetes, 252,176 follow-up records of people with diabetes patients from 2016 to 2023 were obtained from Haizhu District, Guangzhou. According to the follow-up data, the key life characteristic indicators that affect diabetes are determined, and the optimal feature subset is obtained through feature selection technology to accurately assess the risk of diabetes. A diabetes risk assessment model based on a random forest classifier was designed, which used optimal feature parameter selection and algorithm model comparison, with an accuracy of 91.24% and an AUC corresponding to the ROC curve of 97%. In order to improve the applicability of the model in clinical and real life, a diabetes risk score card was designed and tested using the original data, the accuracy was 95.15%, and the model reliability was high. The diabetes risk prediction model based on community follow-up big data mining can be used for large-scale risk screening and early warning by community doctors based on patient follow-up data, further promoting diabetes prevention and control strategies, and can also be used for wearable devices or intelligent biosensors for individual patient self examination, in order to improve lifestyle and reduce risk factor levels.

Using Machine Learning for the Risk Factors Classification of Glycemic Control in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Several risk factors are related to glycemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), including demographics, medical conditions, negative emotions, lipid profiles, and heart rate variability (HRV; to present cardiac autonomic activity). The interactions between these risk factors remain unclear. This study aimed to use machine learning methods of artificial intelligence to explore the relationships between various risk factors and glycemic control in T2DM patients. The study utilized a database from Lin et al. (2022) that included 647 T2DM patients. Regression tree analysis was conducted to identify the interactions among risk factors that contribute to glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) values, and various machine learning methods were compared for their accuracy in classifying T2DM patients. The results of the regression tree analysis revealed that high depression scores may be a risk factor in one subgroup but not in others. When comparing different machine learning classification methods, the random forest algorithm emerged as the best-performing method with a small set of features. Specifically, the random forest algorithm achieved 84% accuracy, 95% area under the curve (AUC), 77% sensitivity, and 91% specificity. Using machine learning methods can provide significant value in accurately classifying patients with T2DM when considering depression as a risk factor.

Analysis of Publication Activity and Research Trends in the Field of AI Medical Applications: Network Approach

Artificial intelligence (AI) has revolutionized numerous industries, including medicine. In recent years, the integration of AI into medical practices has shown great promise in enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of diagnosing diseases, predicting patient outcomes, and personalizing treatment plans. This paper aims at the exploration of the AI-based medicine research using network approach and analysis of existing trends based on PubMed. Our findings are based on the results of PubMed search queries and analysis of the number of papers obtained by the different search queries. Our goal is to explore how are the AI-based methods used in healthcare research, which approaches and techniques are the most popular, and to discuss the potential reasoning behind the obtained results. Using analysis of the co-occurrence network constructed using VOSviewer software, we detected the main clusters of interest in AI-based healthcare research. Then, we proceeded with the thorough analysis of publication activity in various categories of medical AI research, including research on different AI-based methods applied to different types of medical data. We analyzed the results of query processing in the PubMed database over the past 5 years obtained via a specifically designed strategy for generating search queries based on the thorough selection of keywords from different categories of interest. We provide a comprehensive analysis of existing applications of AI-based methods to medical data of different modalities, including the context of various medical fields and specific diseases that carry the greatest danger to the human population.

Long-Term Coronary Artery Disease Risk Prediction with Machine Learning Models

The heart is the most vital organ of the human body; thus, its improper functioning has a significant impact on human life. Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a disease of the coronary arteries through which the heart is nourished and oxygenated. It is due to the formation of atherosclerotic plaques on the wall of the epicardial coronary arteries, resulting in the narrowing of their lumen and the obstruction of blood flow through them. Coronary artery disease can be delayed or even prevented with lifestyle changes and medical intervention. Long-term risk prediction of coronary artery disease will be the area of interest in this work. In this specific research paper, we experimented with various machine learning (ML) models after the use or non-use of the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE), evaluating and comparing them in terms of accuracy, precision, recall and an area under the curve (AUC). The results showed that the stacking ensemble model after the SMOTE with 10-fold cross-validation prevailed over the other models, achieving an accuracy of 90.9 %, a precision of 96.7%, a recall of 87.6% and an AUC equal to 96.1%.

Efficient Data-Driven Machine Learning Models for Cardiovascular Diseases Risk Prediction

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are now the leading cause of death, as the quality of life and human habits have changed significantly. CVDs are accompanied by various complications, including all pathological changes involving the heart and/or blood vessels. The list of pathological changes includes hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, angina, myocardial infarction and stroke. Hence, prevention and early diagnosis could limit the onset or progression of the disease. Nowadays, machine learning (ML) techniques have gained a significant role in disease prediction and are an essential tool in medicine. In this study, a supervised ML-based methodology is presented through which we aim to design efficient prediction models for CVD manifestation, highlighting the SMOTE technique's superiority. Detailed analysis and understanding of risk factors are shown to explore their importance and contribution to CVD prediction. These factors are fed as input features to a plethora of ML models, which are trained and tested to identify the most appropriate for our objective under a binary classification problem with a uniform class probability distribution. Various ML models were evaluated after the use or non-use of Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE), and comparing them in terms of Accuracy, Recall, Precision and an Area Under the Curve (AUC). The experiment results showed that the Stacking ensemble model after SMOTE with 10-fold cross-validation prevailed over the other ones achieving an Accuracy of 87.8%, Recall of 88.3%, Precision of 88% and an AUC equal to 98.2%.

Automatic inference of hypoglycemia causes in type 1 diabetes: a feasibility study

Background

Hypoglycemia is the most common adverse consequence of treating diabetes, and is often due to suboptimal patient self-care. Behavioral interventions by health professionals and self-care education helps avoid recurrent hypoglycemic episodes by targeting problematic patient behaviors. This relies on time-consuming investigation of reasons behind the observed episodes, which involves manual interpretation of personal diabetes diaries and communication with patients. Therefore, there is a clear motivation to automate this process using a supervised machine learning paradigm. This manuscript presents a feasibility study of automatic identification of hypoglycemia causes.

Methods

Reasons for 1885 hypoglycemia events were labeled by 54 participants with type 1 diabetes over a 21 months period. A broad range of possible predictors were extracted describing a hypoglycemic episode and the subject's general self-care from participants' routinely collected data on the Glucollector, their diabetes management platform. Thereafter, the possible hypoglycemia reasons were categorized for two major analysis sections - statistical analysis of relationships between the data features of self-care and hypoglycemia reasons, and classification analysis investigating the design of an automated system to determine the reason for hypoglycemia.

Results

Physical activity contributed to 45% of hypoglycemia reasons on the real world collected data. The statistical analysis provided a number of interpretable predictors of different hypoglycemia reasons based on self-care behaviors. The classification analysis showed the performance of a reasoning system in practical settings with different objectives under F1-score, recall and precision metrics.

Conclusion

The data acquisition characterized the incidence distribution of the various hypoglycemia reasons. The analyses highlighted many interpretable predictors of the various hypoglycemia types. Also, the feasibility study presented a number of concerns valuable in the design of the decision support system for automatic hypoglycemia reason classification. Therefore, automating the identification of the causes of hypoglycemia may help objectively to target behavioral and therapeutic changes in patients' care.

Supervised Machine Learning Models to Identify Early-Stage Symptoms of SARS-CoV-2

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic was caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus and began in December 2019. The virus was first reported in the Wuhan region of China. It is a new strain of coronavirus that until then had not been isolated in humans. In severe cases, pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiple organ failure or even death may occur. Now, the existence of vaccines, antiviral drugs and the appropriate treatment are allies in the confrontation of the disease. In the present research work, we utilized supervised Machine Learning (ML) models to determine early-stage symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 occurrence. For this purpose, we experimented with several ML models, and the results showed that the ensemble model, namely Stacking, outperformed the others, achieving an Accuracy, Precision, Recall and F-Measure equal to 90.9% and an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 96.4%.

Metabolomic Selection in the Progression of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Genetic Algorithm Approach

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a result of the inefficient use of insulin by the body. More than 95% of people with diabetes have T2DM, which is largely due to excess weight and physical inactivity. This study proposes an intelligent feature selection of metabolites related to different stages of diabetes, with the use of genetic algorithms (GA) and the implementation of support vector machines (SVMs), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNNs) and Nearest Centroid (NEARCENT) and with a dataset obtained from the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social with the protocol name of the following: "Análisis metabolómico y transcriptómico diferencial en orina y suero de pacientes pre diabéticos, diabéticos y con nefropatía diabética para identificar potenciales biomarcadores pronósticos de daño renal" (differential metabolomic and transcriptomic analyses in the urine and serum of pre-diabetic, diabetic and diabetic nephropathy patients to identify potential prognostic biomarkers of kidney damage). In order to analyze which machine learning (ML) model is the most optimal for classifying patients with some stage of T2DM, the novelty of this work is to provide a genetic algorithm approach that detects significant metabolites in each stage of progression. More than 100 metabolites were identified as significant between all stages; with the data analyzed, the average accuracies obtained in each of the five most-accurate implementations of genetic algorithms were in the range of 0.8214-0.9893 with respect to average accuracy, providing a precise tool to use in detections and backing up a diagnosis constructed entirely with metabolomics. By providing five potential biomarkers for progression, these extremely significant metabolites are as follows: "Cer(d18:1/24:1) i2", "PC(20:3-OH/P-18:1)", "Ganoderic acid C2", "TG(16:0/17:1/18:1)" and "GPEtn(18:0/20:4)".