Building a decision-support tool to inform sustainability approaches under complexity: Case study on managing wild ruminants

In wildlife management, differing perspectives among stakeholders generate conflicts about how to achieve disparate sustainability goals that include ecological, economic, and sociocultural dimensions. To mitigate such conflicts, decisions regarding wildlife management must be taken thoughtfully. To our knowledge, there exists no integrative modeling framework to inform these decisions, considering all dimensions of sustainability. We constructed a decision-support tool based on stakeholder workshops and a Bayesian decision network to inform management of wild ruminants in the federal state of Lower Austria. We use collaborative decision analysis to compare resource allocations while accounting for trade-offs among dimensions of sustainability. The tool is designed for application by non-technical users across diverse decision-making contexts with particular sets of wildlife management actions, objectives, and uncertainties. Our tool represents an important step toward developing and evaluating a transparent and replicable approach for mitigating wildlife-based conflicts in Europe and beyond.

Ecological Civilisation and Amphibian Sustainability through Reproduction Biotechnologies, Biobanking, and Conservation Breeding Programs (RBCs)

Intergenerational justice entitles the maximum retention of Earth's biodiversity. The 2022 United Nations COP 15, "Ecological Civilisation: Building a Shared Future for All Life on Earth", is committed to protecting 30% of Earth's terrestrial environments and, through COP 28, to mitigate the effects of the climate catastrophe on the biosphere. We focused this review on three core themes: the need and potential of reproduction biotechnologies, biobanks, and conservation breeding programs (RBCs) to satisfy sustainability goals; the technical state and current application of RBCs; and how to achieve the future potentials of RBCs in a rapidly evolving environmental and cultural landscape. RBCs include the hormonal stimulation of reproduction, the collection and storage of sperm and oocytes, and artificial fertilisation. Emerging technologies promise the perpetuation of species solely from biobanked biomaterials stored for perpetuity. Despite significant global declines and extinctions of amphibians, and predictions of a disastrous future for most biodiversity, practical support for amphibian RBCs remains limited mainly to a few limited projects in wealthy Western countries. We discuss the potential of amphibian RBCs to perpetuate amphibian diversity and prevent extinctions within multipolar geopolitical, cultural, and economic frameworks. We argue that a democratic, globally inclusive organisation is needed to focus RBCs on regions with the highest amphibian diversity. Prioritisation should include regional and international collaborations, community engagement, and support for RBC facilities ranging from zoos and other institutions to those of private carers. We tabulate a standard terminology for field programs associated with RBCs for publication and media consistency.

Conservation Mitonuclear Replacement: Facilitated mitochondrial adaptation for a changing world

Most species will not be able to migrate fast enough to cope with climate change, nor evolve quickly enough with current levels of genetic variation. Exacerbating the problem are anthropogenic influences on adaptive potential, including the prevention of gene flow through habitat fragmentation and the erosion of genetic diversity in small, bottlenecked populations. Facilitated adaptation, or assisted evolution, offers a way to augment adaptive genetic variation via artificial selection, induced hybridization, or genetic engineering. One key source of genetic variation, particularly for climatic adaptation, are the core metabolic genes encoded by the mitochondrial genome. These genes influence environmental tolerance to heat, drought, and hypoxia, but must interact intimately and co-evolve with a suite of important nuclear genes. These coadapted mitonuclear genes form some of the important reproductive barriers between species. Mitochondrial genomes can and do introgress between species in an adaptive manner, and they may co-introgress with nuclear genes important for maintaining mitonuclear compatibility. Managers should consider the relevance of mitonuclear genetic variability in conservation decision-making, including as a tool for facilitating adaptation. I propose a novel technique dubbed Conservation Mitonuclear Replacement (CmNR), which entails replacing the core metabolic machinery of a threatened species-the mitochondrial genome and key nuclear loci-with those from a closely related species or a divergent population, which may be better-adapted to climatic changes or carry a lower genetic load. The most feasible route to CmNR is to combine CRISPR-based nuclear genetic editing with mitochondrial replacement and assisted reproductive technologies. This method preserves much of an organism's phenotype and could allow populations to persist in the wild when no other suitable conservation options exist. The technique could be particularly important on mountaintops, where rising temperatures threaten an alarming number of species with almost certain extinction in the next century.

Understanding and overcoming obstacles in adaptive management

Adaptive management (AM) is widely promoted to improve management of natural resources, yet its implementation is challenging. We show that obstacles to the implementation of AM are related not only to the AM process per se but also to external factors such as ecosystem properties and governance systems. To overcome obstacles, there is a need to build capacities within the AM process by ensuring adequate resources, management tools, collaboration, and learning. Additionally, building capacities in the legal and institutional frames can enable the necessary flexibility in the governance system. Furthermore, in systems experiencing profound changes in wildlife populations, building such capacities may be even more critical as more flexibility will be needed to cope with increased uncertainty and changed environmental conditions.

Assessing the sustainability of yellow anaconda (Eunectes notaeus) harvest

Sustainable wildlife management is necessary to guarantee the viability of source populations; but it is rarely practiced in the tropics. The yellow anaconda (Eunectes notaeus) has long been harvested for its leather. Since 2002 its harvest has operated under a management program in northeastern Argentina, which relies on adaptive management practices, that limit the minimum body length permitted for harvesting, the number of active hunters and the length of hunting seasons. Here we investigated the effects of yellow anaconda harvest on its demography based on 2002-2019 data and show that exploitation levels are sustainable. The gradual reduction in annual hunting effort, due to a decrease in the number of hunters and hunting season duration, reduced the total number of anacondas harvested. Conversely, captures per unit effort increased across the study period. The body size of anacondas was not influenced by the harvesting, and more females than males were caught. We also found that a decrease in mean temperature positively influenced anaconda harvest and the capture of giant individuals. Because sustainable use is a powerful tool for conservation, and anacondas are widespread in South America, these discoveries are highly applicable to other species and regions.

Life and death in a dynamic environment: Invasive trout, floods, and intraspecific drivers of translocated populations

Understanding the relative strengths of intrinsic and extrinsic factors regulating populations is a long-standing focus of ecology and critical to advancing conservation programs for imperiled species. Conservation could benefit from an increased understanding of factors influencing vital rates (somatic growth, recruitment, survival) in small, translocated populations, which is lacking owing to difficulties in long-term monitoring of rare species. Translocations, here defined as the transfer of wild-captured individuals from source populations to new habitats, are widely used for species conservation, but outcomes are often minimally monitored, and translocations that are monitored often fail. To improve our understanding of how translocated populations respond to environmental variation, we developed and tested hypotheses related to intrinsic (density dependent) and extrinsic (introduced rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss, stream flow and temperature regime) causes of vital rate variation in endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha) populations translocated to Colorado River tributaries in the Grand Canyon (GC), USA. Using biannual recapture data from translocated populations over 10 years, we tested hypotheses related to seasonal somatic growth, and recruitment and population growth rates with linear mixed-effects models and temporal symmetry mark-recapture models. We combined data from recaptures and resights of dispersed fish (both physical captures and continuously recorded antenna detections) from throughout GC to test survival hypotheses, while accounting for site fidelity, using joint live-recapture/live-resight models. While recruitment only occurred in one site, which also drove population growth (relative to survival), evidence supported hypotheses related to density dependence in growth, survival, and recruitment, and somatic growth and recruitment were further limited by introduced trout. Mixed-effects models explained between 67% and 86% of the variation in somatic growth, which showed increased growth rates with greater flood-pulse frequency during monsoon season. Monthly survival was 0.56-0.99 and 0.80-0.99 in the two populations, with lower survival during periods of higher intraspecific abundance and low flood frequency. Our results suggest translocations can contribute toward the recovery of large-river fishes, but continued suppression of invasive fishes to enhance recruitment may be required to ensure population resilience. Furthermore, we demonstrate the importance of flooding to population demographics in food-depauperate, dynamic, invaded systems.

Life and death in a dynamic environment: Invasive trout, floods, and intraspecific drivers of translocated populations

Understanding the relative strengths of intrinsic and extrinsic factors regulating populations is a long-standing focus of ecology and critical to advancing conservation programs for imperiled species. Conservation could benefit from an increased understanding of factors influencing vital rates (somatic growth, recruitment, survival) in small, translocated populations, which is lacking owing to difficulties in long-term monitoring of rare species. Translocations, here defined as the transfer of wild-captured individuals from source populations to new habitats, are widely used for species conservation, but outcomes are often minimally monitored, and translocations that are monitored often fail. To improve our understanding of how translocated populations respond to environmental variation, we developed and tested hypotheses related to intrinsic (density dependent) and extrinsic (introduced rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss, stream flow and temperature regime) causes of vital rate variation in endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha) populations translocated to Colorado River tributaries in the Grand Canyon (GC), USA. Using biannual recapture data from translocated populations over 10 years, we tested hypotheses related to seasonal somatic growth, and recruitment and population growth rates with linear mixed-effects models and temporal symmetry mark-recapture models. We combined data from recaptures and resights of dispersed fish (both physical captures and continuously recorded antenna detections) from throughout GC to test survival hypotheses, while accounting for site fidelity, using joint live-recapture/live-resight models. While recruitment only occurred in one site, which also drove population growth (relative to survival), evidence supported hypotheses related to density dependence in growth, survival, and recruitment, and somatic growth and recruitment were further limited by introduced trout. Mixed-effects models explained between 67% and 86% of the variation in somatic growth, which showed increased growth rates with greater flood-pulse frequency during monsoon season. Monthly survival was 0.56-0.99 and 0.80-0.99 in the two populations, with lower survival during periods of higher intraspecific abundance and low flood frequency. Our results suggest translocations can contribute toward the recovery of large-river fishes, but continued suppression of invasive fishes to enhance recruitment may be required to ensure population resilience. Furthermore, we demonstrate the importance of flooding to population demographics in food-depauperate, dynamic, invaded systems.

Experimental validation of otolith-based age and growth reconstructions across multiple life stages of a critically endangered estuarine fish

Background

The application of otolith-based tools to inform the management and conservation of fishes first requires taxon- and stage-specific validation. The Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), a critically endangered estuarine fish that is endemic to the upper San Francisco Estuary (SFE), California, United States, serves as a key indicator species in the SFE; thus, understanding this species’ vital rates and population dynamics is valuable for assessing the overall health of the estuary. Otolith-based tools have been developed and applied across multiple life stages of Delta Smelt to reconstruct age structure, growth, phenology, and migration. However, key methodological assumptions have yet to be validated, thus limiting confidence in otolith-derived metrics that are important for informing major water management decisions in the SFE.

Methods

Using known-age cultured Delta Smelt and multiple independent otolith analysts, we examined otolith formation, otolith-somatic proportionality, aging accuracy and precision, left-right symmetry, and the effects of image magnification for larval, juvenile, and adult Delta Smelt.

Results

Overall, otolith size varied linearly with fish size (from 10–60 mm), explaining 99% of the variation in fish length, despite a unique slope for larvae < 10 mm. Otolith-somatic proportionality was similar among wild and cultured specimens. Aging precision among independent analysts was 98% and aging accuracy relative to known ages was 96%, with age estimates exhibiting negligible differences among left and right otoliths. Though error generally increased with age, percent error decreased from 0–30 days-post-hatch, with precision remaining relatively high (≥ 95%) thereafter. Increased magnification (400×) further improved aging accuracy for the oldest, slowest-growing individuals. Together, these results indicate that otolith-based techniques provide reliable age and growth reconstructions for larval, juvenile, and adult Delta Smelt. Such experimental assessments across multiple developmental stages are key steps toward assessing confidence in otolith-derived metrics that are often used to assess the dynamics of wild fish populations.

Addressing the Early-Successional Habitat Needs of At-Risk Species on Privately Owned Lands in the Eastern United States

Public lands alone are insufficient to address the needs of most at-risk wildlife species in the U.S. As a result, a variety of voluntary incentive programs have emerged to recruit private landowners into conservation efforts that restore and manage the habitats needed by specific species. We review the role of one such effort, Working Lands for Wildlife (WLFW), initiated by the Natural Resources Conservation Service in partnership with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Using two at-risk species in the eastern U.S. (where private lands dominate), we show the substantial potential that WLFW has for restoring and maintaining needed habitats. Monitoring how effective these efforts are on populations of the target species has been challenging, and both monitoring and implementation are being modified in response to new information. Identifying landowner motivations is essential for developing long-term relationships and conservation success. As WLFW projects develop, they are moving toward a more holistic ecosystem approach, within which the conservation goals of at-risk species are embedded.

A framework for allocating conservation resources among multiple threats and actions

Land managers decide how to allocate resources among multiple threats that can be addressed through multiple possible actions. Additionally, these actions vary in feasibility, effectiveness, and cost. We sought to provide a way to optimize resource allocation to address multiple threats when multiple management options are available, including mutually exclusive options. Formulating the decision as a combinatorial optimization problem, our framework takes as inputs the expected impact and cost of each threat for each action (including do nothing) and for each overall budget identifies the optimal action to take for each threat. We compared the optimal solution to an easy to calculate greedy algorithm approximation and a variety of plausible ranking schemes. We applied the framework to management of multiple introduced plant species in Australian alpine areas. We developed a model of invasion to predict the expected impact in 50 years for each species-action combination that accounted for each species' current invasion state (absent, localized, widespread); arrival probability; spread rate; impact, if present, of each species; and management effectiveness of each species-action combination. We found that the recommended action for a threat changed with budget; there was no single optimal management action for each species; and considering more than one candidate action can substantially increase the management plan's overall efficiency. The approximate solution (solution ranked by marginal cost-effectiveness) performed well when the budget matched the cost of the prioritized actions, indicating that this approach would be effective if the budget was set as part of the prioritization process. The ranking schemes varied in performance, and achieving a close to optimal solution was not guaranteed. Global sensitivity analysis revealed a threat's expected impact and, to a lesser extent, management effectiveness were the most influential parameters, emphasizing the need to focus research and monitoring efforts on their quantification.

Management Actions Promote Human-Wildlife Coexistence in Highly Anthropized Landscapes: The Case of an Endangered Avian Scavenger

Anthropized landscapes are characterized by various human activities related to resource extraction, recreational activities, and urbanization, among others. Conservation of species living in such landscapes is challenging due to the lack of compatibility between wildlife and human needs, which can create win-lose scenarios for target species. Therefore, adequate management practices are necessary to reduce conflicts and promote coexistence between wildlife and human beings. Here, we test the effectiveness of management measures on the productivity of an Egyptian vulture population living in an anthropized region of Northern Spain by using long-term monitoring data (2000–2020). During the first decade, we demonstrated that disturbance events negatively affected the species reproduction. Therefore, in 2010 we started a management plan in which we first established a basis for the species protection, and second we developed management actions to avoid or reduce the impact of potential disturbance events on the Egyptian vulture’ breeding. We observed that almost half of the disturbances detected after the management was related to resource extraction activities such as forestry (40.6%). Management measures effectively increased productivity (84 vs 137, chicks fledged successfully before and after, respectively) and the breeding success of the pairs in which the disturbances were detected and stopped (66.7%) was much higher than those non-managed and non-stopped in time (17.4%). Moreover, we estimated that 44 nestlings (32.1%) would have died without management actions during the second decade. Overall, our work demonstrated that collaborative networks can design and implement effective management measures for endangered territorial species, taking into account all agents involved (policymakers, rangers, stakeholders, general public, and researchers) in the conservation area. Thereby, it alleviates conflicts in human-dominated ecosystems and generates a balanced scenario that favors long-term sustainable human-wildlife coexistence.

Mammal-exclusion fencing improves the nesting success of an endangered native Hawaiian waterbird

Invasive predator control is often critical to improving the nesting success of endangered birds, but methods of control vary in cost and effectiveness. Poison-baiting or trapping and removal are relatively low-cost, but may have secondary impacts on non-target species, and may not completely exclude mammals from nesting areas. Mammal-exclusion fencing has a substantial up-front cost, but due to cost savings over the lifetime of the structure and the complete exclusion of mammalian predators, this option is increasingly being utilized to protect threatened species such as ground-nesting seabirds. However, non-mammalian predators are not excluded by these fences and may continue to impact nesting success, particularly in cases where the fence is designed for the protection of waterbirds, open to an estuary or wetland on one side. Thus, there remains a research gap regarding the potential gains in waterbird nesting success from the implementation of mammal-exclusion fencing in estuarine systems. In this study, we compared the nesting success of endangered Hawaiian Stilts (Ae‘o; Himantopus mexicanus knudseni) within a mammal-exclusion fence to that of breeding pairs in a nearby wetland where trapping was the sole means for removing invasive mammals. We predicted success would be greater for breeding pairs inside the exclusion fence and the hatchlings inside the enclosure would spend more time in the nesting area than hatchlings at the unfenced site. During a single breeding season following construction of a mammal-exclusion fence, we used motion-activated game cameras to monitor nests at two sites, one site with mammal-exclusion fencing and one site without. Clutch sizes and hatch rates were significantly greater at the fenced site than the unfenced site, but time spent by chicks in the nesting area did not differ between sites. These results add to the mounting body of evidence that demonstrates the effectiveness of mammal-exclusion fencing in protecting endangered birds and suggests it can aid endangered Hawaiian waterbirds toward recovery. These results also suggest that the single greatest predatory threat to the Hawaiian Stilt may be invasive mammals, despite a host of known non-mammalian predators including birds, crabs, turtles, and bullfrogs, as the complete exclusion of mammals resulted in significant gains in nesting success. As additional fences are built, future studies are necessary to compare nesting success among multiple sites and across multiple seasons to determine potential gains in fledging success and recruitment.

Using Decision Science for Monitoring Threatened Western Snowy Plovers to Inform Recovery

Simple Summary

We developed a decision-analysis evaluation of a suite of nine alternative strategies for monitoring federally Threatened populations of Western Snowy Plovers (Charadrius nivosus nivosus) along the Pacific Coast, US. The species is increasing in numbers as a result of successful recovery plan implementation efforts, and is no longer feasible to conduct absolute censuses of birds and nests, as well as track productivity, fate, and predation events at every nest. What is needed is a statistically sound and economically feasible sampling approach to continue monitoring plover populations and informing management decisions that advance recovery for the species. We convened an eight-person technical team of plover monitoring experts to score the nine alternative strategies on a set of six categories of monitoring objectives such as maximizing the accuracy of determining the adult population size. Scoring consisted of ordinal scales of performance measures related to the recovery criteria for the species, and to other criteria related to monitoring reporting. We calculated overall scores among the team members, and explored how different objective weights influenced which monitoring strategies were best. Several monitoring strategies stood out as having the highest utility, depending on the importance given to cost, which we subsequently conveyed to the US Fish and Wildlife Service, responsible for monitoring as well as for consideration when choosing a standard monitoring sampling strategy throughout all the plover recovery units.

Abstract

Western Snowy Plovers (Charadrius nivosus nivosus) are federally listed under the US Endangered Species Act as Threatened. They occur along the US Pacific coastline and are threatened by habitat loss and destruction and excessive levels of predation and human disturbance. Populations have been monitored since the 1970s for distribution, reproduction, and survival. Since the species was federally listed in 1993 and a recovery plan was approved under the US Fish and Wildlife Service in 2007, recovery actions have resulted in growing populations with increased presence at breeding and wintering sites throughout their Pacific Coast range. This success has created logistical challenges related to monitoring a recovering species and a need for identifying and instituting the best monitoring approach given recovery goals, budgets, and the likelihood of monitoring success. We devised and implemented a structured decision analysis to evaluate nine alternative monitoring strategies. The analysis included inviting plover biologists involved in monitoring to score each strategy according to a suite of performance measures. Using multi-attribute utility theory, we combined scores across the performance measures for each monitoring strategy, and applied weighted utility values to show the implications of tradeoffs and find optimal decisions. We evaluated four scenarios for weighting the monitoring objectives and how risk attitude affects optimal decisions. This resulted in identifying six strategies that best meet recovery needs and were Pareto optimal for cost-effective monitoring. Results were presented to the US Fish and Wildlife Service, responsible for monitoring as well as for consideration to ensure consistent monitoring methods across the species’ range. Our use of structured decision-making can be applied to cases of other species once imperiled but now on the road to recovery.

Reconstructing population dynamics of a threatened marine mammal using multiple data sets

Models of marine mammal population dynamics have been used extensively to predict abundance. A less common application of these models is to reconstruct historical population dynamics, filling in gaps in observation data by integrating information from multiple sources. We developed an integrated population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) to reconstruct its population dynamics in the southwest region of the state over the past 20 years. Our model improved precision of key parameter estimates and permitted inference on poorly known parameters. Population growth was slow (averaging 1.02; 95% credible interval 1.01-1.03) but not steady, and an unusual mortality event in 2013 led to an estimated net loss of 332 (217-466) manatees. Our analyses showed that precise estimates of abundance could be derived from estimates of vital rates and a few input estimates of abundance, which may mean costly surveys to estimate abundance don't need to be conducted as frequently. Our study also shows that retrospective analyses can be useful to: (1) model the transient dynamics of age distribution; (2) assess and communicate the conservation status of wild populations; and (3) improve our understanding of environmental effects on population dynamics and thus enhance our ability to forecast.

Interventions to help coral reefs under global change-A complex decision challenge

Climate change is impacting coral reefs now. Recent pan-tropical bleaching events driven by unprecedented global heat waves have shifted the playing field for coral reef management and policy. While best-practice conventional management remains essential, it may no longer be enough to sustain coral reefs under continued climate change. Nor will climate change mitigation be sufficient on its own. Committed warming and projected reef decline means solutions must involve a portfolio of mitigation, best-practice conventional management and coordinated restoration and adaptation measures involving new and perhaps radical interventions, including local and regional cooling and shading, assisted coral evolution, assisted gene flow, and measures to support and enhance coral recruitment. We propose that proactive research and development to expand the reef management toolbox fast but safely, combined with expedient trialling of promising interventions is now urgently needed, whatever emissions trajectory the world follows. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of embracing new interventions in a race against time, including their risks and uncertainties. Ultimately, solutions to the climate challenge for coral reefs will require consideration of what society wants, what can be achieved technically and economically, and what opportunities we have for action in a rapidly closing window. Finding solutions that work for coral reefs and people will require exceptional levels of coordination of science, management and policy, and open engagement with society. It will also require compromise, because reefs will change under climate change despite our best interventions. We argue that being clear about society's priorities, and understanding both the opportunities and risks that come with an expanded toolset, can help us make the most of a challenging situation. We offer a conceptual model to help reef managers frame decision problems and objectives, and to guide effective strategy choices in the face of complexity and uncertainty.

Yellowstone Lake Ecosystem Restoration: A Case Study for Invasive Fish Management

Invasive predatory lake trout Salvelinus namaycush were discovered in Yellowstone Lake in 1994 and caused a precipitous decrease in abundance of native Yellowstone cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri. Suppression efforts (primarily gillnetting) initiated in 1995 did not curtail lake trout population growth or lakewide expansion. An adaptive management strategy was developed in 2010 that specified desired conditions indicative of ecosystem recovery. Population modeling was used to estimate effects of suppression efforts on the lake trout and establish effort benchmarks to achieve negative population growth (λ < 1). Partnerships enhanced funding support, and a scientific review panel provided guidance to increase suppression gillnetting effort to >46,800 100-m net nights; this effort level was achieved in 2012 and led to a reduction in lake trout biomass. Total lake trout biomass declined from 432,017 kg in 2012 to 196,675 kg in 2019, primarily because of a 79% reduction in adults. Total abundance declined from 925,208 in 2012 to 673,983 in 2019 but was highly variable because of recruitment of age-2 fish. Overall, 3.35 million lake trout were killed by suppression efforts from 1995 to 2019. Cutthroat trout abundance remained below target levels, but relative condition increased, large individuals (> 400 mm) became more abundant, and individual weights doubled, probably because of reduced density. Continued actions to suppress lake trout will facilitate further recovery of the cutthroat trout population and integrity of the Yellowstone Lake ecosystem.

Using conservation science to advance corporate biodiversity accountability

Biodiversity declines threaten the sustainability of global economies and societies. Acknowledging this, businesses are beginning to make commitments to account for and mitigate their influence on biodiversity and report this in sustainability reports. We assessed the top 100 of the 2016 Fortune 500 Global companies' (the Fortune 100) sustainability reports to gauge the current state of corporate biodiversity accountability. Almost half (49) of the Fortune 100 mentioned biodiversity in reports, and 31 made clear biodiversity commitments, of which only 5 were specific, measureable, and time bound. A variety of biodiversity-related activities were disclosed (e.g., managing impacts, restoring biodiversity, and investing in biodiversity), but only 9 companies provided quantitative indicators to verify the magnitude of their activities (e.g., area of habitat restored). No companies reported quantitative biodiversity outcomes, making it difficult to determine whether business actions were of sufficient magnitude to address impacts and were achieving positive outcomes for nature. Conservation science can advance approaches to corporate biodiversity accountability by helping businesses make science-based biodiversity commitments, develop meaningful indicators, and select more targeted activities to address business impacts. With the biodiversity policy super year of 2020 rapidly approaching, now is the time for conservation scientists to engage with and support businesses in playing a critical role in setting the new agenda for a sustainable future for the planet with biodiversity at its heart.

Lessons from 30 years of population viability analysis of wildlife populations

Population viability analysis (PVA) has been used for three decades to assess threats and evaluate conservation options for wildlife populations. What has been learned from PVA on in situ populations are valuable lessons also for assessing and managing viability and sustainability of ex situ populations. The dynamics of individual populations are unpredictable, due to limited knowledge about important factors, variability in the environment, and the probabilistic nature of demographic events. PVA considers such uncertainty within simulations that generate the distribution of likely fates for a population; management of ex situ populations should also take into consideration the uncertainty in our data and in the trajectories of populations. The processes affecting wildlife populations interact, with feedbacks often leading to amplified threats to viability; projections of ex situ populations should include such feedbacks to allow for management that foresees and responds to the cumulative and synergistic threats. PVA is useful for evaluating conservation options only if the goals for each population and measures of success are first clearly identified; similarly, for ex situ populations to contribute maximally to species conservation, the purposes for the population and definitions of sustainability in terms of acceptable risk must be documented. PVA requires a lot of data, knowledge of many processes affecting the populations, modeling expertize, and understanding of management goals and constraints. Therefore, to be useful in guiding conservation it must be a collaborative, trans-disciplinary, and social process. PVA can help integrate management of in situ and ex situ populations within comprehensive species conservation plans.

Implicit decision framing as an unrecognized source of confusion in endangered species classification

Legal classification of species requires scientific and values-based components, and how those components interact depends on how people frame the decision. Is classification a negotiation of trade-offs, a decision on how to allocate conservation efforts, or simply a comparison of the biological status of a species to a legal standard? The answers to problem-framing questions such as these influence decision making in species classifications. In our experience, however, decision makers, staff biologists, and stakeholders often have differing perspectives of the decision problem and assume different framings. In addition to differences between individuals, in some cases it appears individuals themselves are unclear about the decision process, which contributes to regulatory paralysis, litigation, and a loss of trust by agency staff and the public. We present 5 framings: putting species in the right bin, doing right by the species over time, saving the most species on a limited budget, weighing extinction risk against other objectives, and strategic classification to advance conservation. These framings are inspired by elements observed in current classification practices. Putting species in the right bin entails comparing a scientific status assessment with policy thresholds and accounting for potential misclassification costs. Doing right by the species adds a time dimension to the classification decision, and saving the most species on a limited budget classifies a suite of species simultaneously. Weighing extinction risk against other objectives would weigh ecological or socioeconomic concerns in classification decisions, and strategic classification to advance conservation would make negotiation a component of classification. We view these framings as a means to generate thought, discussion, and movement toward selection and application of explicit classification framings. Being explicit about the decision framing could lead decision makers toward more efficient and defensible decisions, reduce internal confusion and external conflict, and support better collaboration between scientists and policy makers.

How to improve threatened species management: An Australian perspective

Targeted threatened species management is a central component of efforts to prevent species extinction. Despite the development of a range of management frameworks to improve conservation outcomes over the past decade, threatened species management is still commonly characterised as ad hoc. Although there are notable successes, many management programs are ineffective, with relatively few species experiencing improvements in their conservation status. We identify underlying factors that commonly lead to ineffective and inefficient management. Drawing attention to some of the key challenges, and suggesting ways forward, may lead to improved management effectiveness and better conservation outcomes. We highlight six key areas where improvements are needed: 1) stakeholder engagement and communication; 2) fostering strong leadership and the development of achievable long-term goals; 3) knowledge of target species' biology and threats, particularly focusing on filling knowledge gaps that impede management, while noting that in many cases there will be a need for conservation management to proceed initially despite knowledge gaps; 4) setting objectives with measurable outcomes; 5) strategic monitoring to evaluate management effectiveness; and 6) greater accountability for species declines and failure to recover species to ensure timely action and guard against complacency. We demonstrate the importance of these six key areas by providing examples of innovative approaches leading to successful species management. We also discuss overarching factors outside the realm of management influence that can help or impede conservation success. Clear recognition of factors that make species' management more straightforward - or more challenging - is important for setting realistic management objectives, outlining strategic action, and prioritising resources. We also highlight the need to more clearly demonstrate the benefit of current investment, and communicate that the risk of under-investment is species extinctions. Together, improvements in conservation practice, along with increased resource allocation and re-evaluation of the prioritisation of competing interests that threaten species, will help enhance conservation outcomes for threatened species.

Guidelines for planning genomic assessment and monitoring of locally adaptive variation to inform species conservation

Identifying and monitoring locally adaptive genetic variation can have direct utility for conserving species at risk, especially when management may include actions such as translocations for restoration, genetic rescue, or assisted gene flow. However, genomic studies of local adaptation require careful planning to be successful, and in some cases may not be a worthwhile use of resources. Here, we offer an adaptive management framework to help conservation biologists and managers decide when genomics is likely to be effective in detecting local adaptation, and how to plan assessment and monitoring of adaptive variation to address conservation objectives. Studies of adaptive variation using genomic tools will inform conservation actions in many cases, including applications such as assisted gene flow and identifying conservation units. In others, assessing genetic diversity, inbreeding, and demographics using selectively neutral genetic markers may be most useful. And in some cases, local adaptation may be assessed more efficiently using alternative approaches such as common garden experiments. Here, we identify key considerations of genomics studies of locally adaptive variation, provide a road map for successful collaborations with genomics experts including key issues for study design and data analysis, and offer guidelines for interpreting and using results from genomic assessments to inform monitoring programs and conservation actions.

Improving Standards for At-Risk Butterfly Translocations

The use of human mediated translocations has been an increasing component of many species recovery initiatives, including for numerous imperiled Lepidopteran species. Despite the identified need for this ex situ strategy, few such programs are conducted in a scientifically repeatable way, are executed with a structured decision-making process, are well documented throughout, or are documented only in gray literature. The International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Guidelines for Reintroductions and Other Conservation Translocations are an important tool for conservation practitioners to help implement comprehensive translocation planning. These generalized guidelines are intended to be applicable to all taxa. Though there is a growing body of literature and supplementary guidelines for many vertebrate classes, other proposed standards fail to capture the specific biology of many invertebrate groups, like Lepidoptera. Here, we present a targeted list of detailed recommendations that are appropriate for Lepidopteran translocation programs to expand on the broad and tested guidelines developed by the IUCN. We assert that the increased standardization and repeatability among Lepidopteran translocations will improve the conservation outcomes.

Extinction Risk and Conservation Options for Maui Parrotbill, an Endangered Hawaiian Honeycreeper

Extinction rates for island birds around the world have been historically high. For forest passerines, the Hawaiian archipelago has suffered some of the highest extinction rates and reintroduction is a conservation tool that can be used to prevent the extinction of some of the remaining endangered species. Population viability analyses can be used to assess risks to vulnerable populations and evaluate the relative benefits of conservation strategies. Here we present a population viability analysis to assess the long-term viability for Maui parrotbill (Kiwikiu) Pseudonestor xanthophrys, a federally endangered passerine on the Hawaiian island of Maui. Contrary to indications from population monitoring, our results indicate Maui parrotbills may be unlikely to persist beyond 25 y. Our modeling suggests female mortality as a primary factor driving this decline. To evaluate and compare management options involving captive-rearing and translocation strategies we made a female-only stage-structured, meta-population simulation model. Maui parrotbills have low reproductive potential in captivity; therefore, the number of individuals (∼20% of the global population) needed to source a reintroduction solely from captive reared birds is unrealistic. A reintroduction strategy that incorporates a minimal contribution from captivity and instead translocates mostly wild individuals was found to be the most feasible management option. Habitat is being restored on leeward east Maui, which may provide more favorable climate and habitat conditions and promote increased reproductive output. Our model provides managers with benchmarks for fecundity and survival needed to ensure reintroduction success, and highlights the importance of establishing a new population in potentially favorable habitat to ensure long-term persistence.

AMModels: An R package for storing models, data, and metadata to facilitate adaptive management

Agencies are increasingly called upon to implement their natural resource management programs within an adaptive management (AM) framework. This article provides the background and motivation for the R package, AMModels. AMModels was developed under R version 3.2.2. The overall goal of AMModels is simple: To codify knowledge in the form of models and to store it, along with models generated from numerous analyses and datasets that may come our way, so that it can be used or recalled in the future. AMModels facilitates this process by storing all models and datasets in a single object that can be saved to an .RData file and routinely augmented to track changes in knowledge through time. Through this process, AMModels allows the capture, development, sharing, and use of knowledge that may help organizations achieve their mission. While AMModels was designed to facilitate adaptive management, its utility is far more general. Many R packages exist for creating and summarizing models, but to our knowledge, AMModels is the only package dedicated not to the mechanics of analysis but to organizing analysis inputs, analysis outputs, and preserving descriptive metadata. We anticipate that this package will assist users hoping to preserve the key elements of an analysis so they may be more confidently revisited at a later date.

Development of a Species Status Assessment Process for Decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) require scientific input on the risk that the species will become extinct. A series of critiques on the role of science in ESA decisions have called for improved consistency and transparency in species risk assessments and clear distinctions between science input and policy application. To address the critiques and document the emerging practice of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), we outline an assessment process based on principles and practices of risk and decision analyses that results in a scientific report on species status. The species status assessment (SSA) process has three successive stages: 1) document the life history and ecological relationships of the species in question to provide the foundation for the assessment, 2) describe and hypothesize causes for the current condition of the species, and 3) forecast the species' future condition. The future condition refers to the ability of a species to sustain populations in the wild under plausible future scenarios. The scenarios help explore the species' response to future environmental stressors and to assess the potential for conservation to intervene to improve its status. The SSA process incorporates modeling and scenario planning for prediction of extinction risk and applies the conservation biology principles of representation, resiliency, and redundancy to evaluate the current and future condition. The SSA results in a scientific report distinct from policy application, which contributes to streamlined, transparent, and consistent decision-making and allows for greater technical participation by experts outside of the USFWS, for example, by state natural resource agencies. We present two case studies based on assessments of the eastern massasauga rattlesnake Sistrurus catenatus and the Sonoran Desert tortoise Gopherus morafkai to illustrate the process. The SSA builds upon the past threat-focused assessment by including systematic and explicit analyses of a species' future response to stressors and conservation, and as a result, we believe it provides an improved scientific analysis for ESA decisions.

An adaptive management case study for managing macropods on Maria Island National Park, Tasmania, Australia: adding devils to the detail

Adaptive management is driven by structured decision making and evidence from monitoring in a ‘learning’ framework that guides management actions. In a conservation context, this iterative approach includes evaluation of the impacts on natural processes. On Maria Island National Park, Tasmania, Australia, introduced Forester kangaroo, Bennetts wallaby and Tasmanian pademelon have been intensively managed by an annual cull since 1994. Management actions were triggered by high parasite loads, intense grazing pressure and high juvenile mortality during drought periods. Criticism of the annual cull from animal welfare groups initiated the development of an adaptive management approach for decision making that replaces the historic ‘trial and error’ process. Following a comprehensive review of the existing macropod management program in 2011, an integrated monitoring strategy was established to provide evidence for informed decision making. Assessments of animal health and estimates of population trends are the key indicators for management actions to occur. Maintaining viable macropod populations and protecting natural values form the basis of management objectives. Management actions in each year, for each species, represent ‘treatments’ as spatial replication is not possible at such a small scale. An adaptive management approach for macropod management on Maria Island has resulted in only one species being culled in 2014 and 2015 for the first time in almost 20 years. However the recent introduction of a major predator, the Tasmanian devil, has increased uncertainty for long-term macropod management on Maria Island with no cull occurring in 2016 and 2017.

Purpose, processes, partnerships, and products: four Ps to advance participatory socio-environmental modeling

Including stakeholders in environmental model building and analysis is an increasingly popular approach to understanding ecological change. This is because stakeholders often hold valuable knowledge about socio-environmental dynamics and collaborative forms of modeling produce important boundary objects used to collectively reason about environmental problems. Although the number of participatory modeling (PM) case studies and the number of researchers adopting these approaches has grown in recent years, the lack of standardized reporting and limited reproducibility have prevented PM's establishment and advancement as a cohesive field of study. We suggest a four-dimensional framework (4P) that includes reporting on dimensions of (1) the Purpose for selecting a PM approach (the why); (2) the Process by which the public was involved in model building or evaluation (the how); (3) the Partnerships formed (the who); and (4) the Products that resulted from these efforts (the what). We highlight four case studies that use common PM software-based approaches (fuzzy cognitive mapping, agent-based modeling, system dynamics, and participatory geospatial modeling) to understand human-environment interactions and the consequences of ecological changes, including bushmeat hunting in Tanzania and Cameroon, agricultural production and deforestation in Zambia, and groundwater management in India. We demonstrate how standardizing communication about PM case studies can lead to innovation and new insights about model-based reasoning in support of ecological policy development. We suggest that our 4P framework and reporting approach provides a way for new hypotheses to be identified and tested in the growing field of PM.