The fertility of immigrants after arrival: The Italian case

Family trajectories among immigrants and their descendants in three European countries: A multistate approach in comparative research

This study investigates partnership changes and childbearing among immigrants and their descendants in the UK, France, and Germany. Our analysis of longitudinal data shows, first, significant diversity in family trajectories among immigrants and their descendants in Europe. Immigrants from other European countries and their descendants tend to cohabit prior to marriage, and their fertility in unions is often similar to that of the native population. In contrast, South Asians and Turkish populations exhibit marriage-centred family behaviour with elevated third-birth rates. Individuals of sub-Saharan African or Caribbean origin display higher rates of non-marital family transitions. Second, we observe some changes in partnership and childbearing patterns across migrant generations; these are stronger for fertility than for partnership patterns. Third, migration background is particularly associated with partnership patterns, whereas the destination country context influences childbearing patterns. We expect some patterns to persist across future migrant generations (e.g. preference for marriage vs cohabitation), whereas others are likely to vanish (e.g. large families).

Fertility patterns and sex composition preferences in immigrant-native unions in Sweden

Intermarriage between immigrants and native individuals highlights the need to study childbearing as a joint decision of couples, because fertility preferences are likely to differ for the two partners involved. This study focuses on Sweden, where the majority population holds a relative preference for daughters but many immigrants come from countries with son preferences. Using longitudinal registers for the period 1990-2009, I analyse third-birth risks according to the sex composition of previous children and type of union. Doing so allows the study of preferences from behavioural data: couples with a daughter preference, for example, are more likely to have another child if their two previous children were boys. Results show that third-birth risks tend to be higher in unions between Swedish women and immigrant men, whereas unions between Swedish men and immigrant women tend to exhibit lower third-birth risks. Son preferences are rarely realized in intermarriages.

Legal Status and Fertility Patterns: Regulation-Induced Disruption Among Previously Undocumented Immigrant Women in Italy

We explore, using a unique survey dataset containing retrospective information on immigrants' legal status, the relationship between previous irregular experience-from arrival up to the first residence permit achievement-and fertility patterns among non-EU immigrant women in Italy. While competing hypotheses explaining migrants' fertility behaviour have been recurrently offered, there is a substantial lack of knowledge on the role of undocumented experience as a contextual barrier in shaping international migrants' family formation processes. We adopt a life-course approach, employing event history analysis and Poisson regression modelling, to investigate how irregularity among immigrant women intertwines with the timing of the first childbirth and the total number of births occurred in Italy. We find that irregular experience-as a time-dependent process-delays the transition to childbirth post-migration. Furthermore, having experienced irregular status reduces completed fertility, offering few possibilities to catch-up over the life-course with fertility levels of women continuously having the legal status. Findings suggest long-lasting effects of irregular status and the potential disruption of migrant's fertility induced by migration policies, admission systems, and regulation factors. The reduced possibility of legal entry channels and lack of migration policies for planning and managing migration into Italy may thus have an impact on family formation trajectories among international immigrant women.

On the Timing of Marriage and Childbearing: Family Formation Pathways Among Immigrants in Switzerland

This paper examines childbearing in and outside of marriage as a manifestation of the Second Demographic Transition among immigrant populations in Switzerland. Based on full-population register data, we simultaneously analyse fertility and partnership changes at different stages of the migration process. Results from a multistate event history model show that most of the differences in family formation patterns between migrant groups and natives are in the sequencing of marriage and first birth among childless unmarried women. Out of wedlock family trajectories prove to be a common experience for European migrants, but a sustainable family pathway only among natives, as well as among immigrants from France, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Among married women, it is the risk of a third birth that marks the differences between groups; first and second birth rates are relatively similar across migrant groups. Distinguishing between the transition patterns of newly arrived immigrants and settled immigrants (characterised by various residence durations) support the disruption hypothesis among EU migrants and the interrelated life events hypothesis among non-EU groups. Family size and the partnership context of fertility highlight which family regime prevails in different population subgroups and the role that immigrants play in the Second Demographic Transition and family transformation in Europe.

Partnership and fertility trajectories of immigrants and descendants in the United Kingdom: A multilevel multistate event history approach

We study the interrelationships between partnership and fertility trajectories of immigrant women and female descendants of immigrants using the UK Household Longitudinal Study. We propose a novel multistate event history approach to analyse the outcomes of unpartnered, cohabiting, and married women. We find that the partnership and fertility behaviours of immigrants and descendants from European and Western countries are similar to those of native women: many cohabit first and then have children and/or marry. Those from countries with conservative family behaviours (e.g. South Asian countries) marry first and then have children. Women from the Caribbean show the weakest link between partnership changes and fertility: some have births outside unions; some form a union and have children thereafter. Family patterns have remained relatively stable across migrant generations and birth cohorts, although marriage is being postponed in all groups. Our findings on immigrants support the socialization hypothesis, whereas those on descendants are in line with the minority subculture hypothesis.

Interaction between childbearing and partnership trajectories among immigrants and their descendants in France: An application of multichannel sequence analysis

While there is a large literature investigating migrant marriage or fertility, little research has examined how childbearing and partnerships are interrelated. In this paper, we investigate how childbearing and partnership trajectories evolve and interact over the life course for immigrants and their descendants and how the relationship varies by migrant origin. We apply multichannel sequence analysis to rich longitudinal survey data from France and find significant differences in family-related behaviour between immigrants, their descendants, and the native French. Immigrants' family behaviour is characterized by stronger association between marriage and childbearing than in the native population. However, there are significant differences across migrant groups. Turkish immigrants exhibit the most conservative family pathways. By contrast, the family behaviour of European immigrants is similar to that of the native population. The study also demonstrates that the family behaviour of some descendant groups has gradually become indistinguishable from that of the native French, whereas for other groups significant differences in family behaviour persist.Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2022.2049856.

Forced Migration and the Childbearing of Women and Men: A Disruption of the Tempo and Quantum of Fertility?

It is well known that migrant fertility is associated with age at migration, but little is known about this relationship for forced migrants. We study an example of displacement in which the entire population of Finnish Karelia was forced to move elsewhere in Finland in the 1940s. This displacement was unique because of its size and scale, because we have data on almost the whole population of both men and women who moved, and because of the similarity between origin and destination. These aspects enable us to investigate the disruptive impact of forced migration, net of other factors such as adaptation and selection. For all ages at migration from one to 20, female forced migrants had lower levels of completed fertility than similar women born in present-day Finland, which suggests a permanent impact of migration. However, women born in the same year as the initial forced migration showed no difference, which may indicate the presence of a counterbalancing fertility-increasing effect, as observed elsewhere for people born during a humanitarian crisis. There is less evidence of an impact for men, which suggests a gendered impact of forced migration-and its timing-on fertility. Results are similar after controlling for social and spatial mobility, indicating that there may be no major trade-off between reproduction and these forms of mobility.

Nativity differentials in first births in the United States: Patterns by race and ethnicity

BACKGROUND

While recent decades have seen gradual convergence in ethno-racial disparities in completed fertility in the United States, differences in the age pattern of first births remain. The role of nativity has not been fully understood.

OBJECTIVE

This paper examines how first births vary by nativity, and how this variation contributes to more significant racial and ethnic differentials.

METHODS

Using data from the National Survey of Family Growth (1997-2017), we jointly estimate the correlates of the timing of first births and childlessness. We assess differences between immigrants and US-born and child-migrant women across ethno-racial groups.

RESULTS

The unique first-birth patterns among foreign-born women have a notable impact on Hispanics, reducing differences from Whites in the average age at first birth and contributing to more significant differentials in childlessness. The impact of immigrant women on White and Black first births is more modest in scope.

CONTRIBUTION

Our work shows the importance of nativity for ethnic/racial disparities in the timing and quantum of fertility in the United States. We demonstrate how the migrant population is more determinant for Hispanic fertility patterns than for Black or White. We conclude by elaborating on the implications of these results for future research as the immigrant population in the United States becomes ethnically and racially more diverse.

Cohort, Policy, and Process: The Implications for Migrant Fertility in West Germany

Although a growing literature explores the relationship between migration and fertility, far less scholarship has examined how migrant childbearing varies over time, including across migrant cohorts. I extend previous research by exploring migrant-cohort differences in fertility and the role of changing composition by education and type of family migration. Using 1984-2016 German Socio-Economic Panel data, I investigate the transition into first, second, and third birth among foreign-born women in West Germany. Results from an event-history analysis reveal that education and type of family migration-including marriage migration and family reunions-contribute to differences in first birth across migrant cohorts. Specifically, more rapid entry into first birth among recent migrants from Turkey stems from a greater representation of marriage migrants across arrival cohorts, while increasing education is associated with reduced first birth propensities among recent migrants from Southern Europe. I also find variation in the risk of higher parity transitions across migrant cohorts, particularly lower third birth risks among recent arrivals from Turkey, likely a result of changing exposures within origin and destination contexts. These findings suggest that as political and socioeconomic circumstances vary within origin and destination contexts, selection, adaptation, and socialization processes jointly shape childbearing behavior.

The Fertility of Immigrants From Low-Fertility Settings: Adaptation in the Quantum and Tempo of Childbearing?

Immigrant women who have lived longer in a destination often have relatively low levels of fertility, which is sometimes taken as evidence of the adaptation of behavior. This evidence is almost exclusively based on studies of immigrants from high-fertility settings, while the fertility of immigrants from low-fertility settings has been largely overlooked. Research has also rarely studied the fertility of immigrants who migrated as children, despite the methodological advantages of applying such an approach. This study focuses on women who grew up in Sweden with a migration background from low-fertility origins. We expect that Sweden's welfare regime makes it easier for women to combine childbearing and working life, regardless of migration background, thereby facilitating an adaptation of fertility behavior toward that prevailing in Sweden. We find evidence of adaptation in terms of birth timing for at least half of the country-origin groups that we study, but very little evidence of adaptation in terms of completed fertility. Further, we find that, in comparison with ancestral Swedes, completed fertility differentials are larger for second-generation individuals than for immigrants who arrived during childhood. This is evidence against the notion of "straight-line" adaptation for immigrants and the children of immigrants who are born in Sweden.

Fertility Behavior of Turkish Migrant Men in Europe Compared to Stayers at Origin

This paper addresses the fertility behavior of Turkish men in Europe from a context of origin perspective. Men of the first and subsequent migrant generations are compared with “stayers” from the same regions of origin in Turkey. We pay special attention to the men’s reasons for migration by distinguishing between work and nonwork motivations for migration. We use data from the 2000 Families Study, which was conducted in 2010 and 2011 in Turkey and in western European countries; the sample consists of about 3,500 men. We analyze the transitions to fatherhood as well as to second and third births using event-history analyses; and we investigate the cumulated number of children using Poisson regression analysis. As the men were aged 18–92 at the data collection, we carry out separate models for birth cohort groups. Our findings provide support for the hypothesis of the interrelatedness of events. First-generation migrant men show elevated first birth transitions, which are closely linked to marriage and migration. However, in contrast to the pattern that is often found for women, this effect is observed for labor as well as for nonwork migrants. The rates of transition to a second and a third birth differ less from those of stayers. Analyses of cumulated fertility at age 41 or older further suggest that the migrants’ overall numbers of children are smaller than those of the stayers in Turkey. Thus, our findings indicate that there are dissimilation processes and crossover trends among emigrant men characterized by higher rates of transition to family formation linked to migration but lower overall fertility.

Fertility Drain or Fertility Gain? Emigration and Fertility During the Great Recession in Italy

How does emigration affect fertility in the country of origin? We address this question by estimating counterfactual fertility during the Great Recession in order to understand what the effect of the recession on fertility would be in the absence of emigration. Between 2009 and 2014, Southern European countries suffered from harsh economic instability, which triggered a sharp drop in fertility and a spike in emigration. We focus on Italy, exploiting the richness of the Italian Administrative Registry of Italians Residing Abroad (AIRE), which records information about all Italian citizens moving their residence abroad, as well as Italian birth records. Using an instrumental variable approach, which helps overcome endogeneity issues in the fertility-migration relationship, we find a positive impact of emigration on the total fertility rate at the Italian province level. This result suggests that emigrants are selected among those individuals who have a lower risk of having children. Therefore, in the absence of emigration, counterfactual fertility would have been lower than it actually is. Such a positive effect of out-migration on fertility in the area of origin could thereby lead to an underestimation of the effect of the recession on fertility.

Fertility Intentions Within a 3-Year Time Frame: a Comparison Between Migrant and Native Italian Women

The body of literature on the fertility of migrants in Europe has grown significantly in recent decades. The focus has mostly been on analysing their actual behaviours, and reflection on other crucial aspects extensively analysed in studies on natives has been lacking. In particular, differences between migrants’ reproductive decision-making process and that of natives are currently understudied in the European context. We will focus on the association between demographic and socio-economic characteristics and fertility intentions, comparing native Italian and migrant women in Italy. We apply logistic regression models to analyse factors associated with strong intentions to have a child (or positive fertility intention) and strong intentions not to have a child (or negative fertility intention) in the short term. We use data from the Social Condition and Integration of Foreign Citizens survey on households with at least one foreign member and from the Italian Gender and Generation Survey, both carried out at the national level by the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). Net of controlled covariates, migrant women have both higher positive and lower negative fertility intentions within a 3-year time frame than native women do. However, the patterns of fertility intentions are different for natives and migrants as a function of age, educational level, marital status, parity, homeownership and, notably, labour market status. Focusing only on migrant women, we observe that fertility intentions vary by age at arrival and time since migration and that there are significant differences by country and geographical area of birth.

Visualising Immigrant Fertility -- Profiles of Childbearing and their Implications for Migration Research

Different measures of fertility have strengths and limitations when used to describe the fertility of immigrants, and no single measure captures every aspect of this complex phenomenon. This paper introduces a novel visual framework that shows life course profiles of immigrant childbearing in a multifaceted way. It develops the well-known cohort fertility curve—showing the average number of children ever born over the life course—and adds lines for immigrant women arriving at different ages, using their average number of children born on arrival as a starting point. These immigrant fertility profiles can illustrate a number of important aspects of childbearing simultaneously, including children born before arrival, fertility after arrival and completed fertility at the end of childbearing. In addition to showing numbers of children born (i.e. fertility quantum), the slopes of each profile indicate the tempo of fertility and how this changes by age and duration of residence. The fertility profiles of different immigrant groups can be plotted in the same graph, and can be compared and contrasted with non-immigrant groups—at origin as well as destination—through the augmentation of each visualisation. Using Nordic register data, we illustrate how these fertility profiles can be used to expand our knowledge of immigrant childbearing and to investigate various hypotheses of migrant fertility, giving a novel overview of the relationships between fertility measures such as period and quantum, before and after arrival.

Over-coverage in population registers leads to bias in demographic estimates

Estimating the number of individuals living in a country is an essential task for demographers. This study assesses the potential bias in estimating the size of different migrant populations due to over-coverage in population registers. Over-coverage-individuals registered but not living in a country-is an increasingly pressing phenomenon; however, there is no common understanding of how to deal with over-coverage in demographic research. This study examines different approaches to and improvements in over-coverage estimation using Swedish total population register data. We assess over-coverage levels across migrant groups, test how estimates of age-specific death and fertility rates are affected when adjusting for over-coverage, and examine whether over-coverage can explain part of the healthy migrant paradox. Our results confirm the existence of over-coverage and we find substantial changes in mortality and fertility rates, when adjusted, for people of migrating age. Accounting for over-coverage is particularly important for correctly estimating migrant fertility.

Declined Total Fertility Rate Among Immigrants and the Role of Newly Arrived Women in Norway

In many Western countries, the total fertility rate (TFR) of immigrant women has declined over the last decades. This paper proposes two methods for investigating such changes in the aggregate immigrant fertility level: what-if scenarios and a formal decomposition. Both methods disentangle the effect of changed composition-by origin area and duration of stay-from the effect of changed fertility within subgroups. The methods are applied to data from Norway, where immigrant TFR declined from 2.6 births per women in 2000 to below 2.0 in 2017. The results show that this decline is not due to successful integration, nor changed composition of immigrant women by origin area or duration of stay. A main reason for the decline is found among newly arrived immigrant women, particularly from Asia. They have a considerably lower fertility now than what the newly arrived had 15-20 years ago. After investigating several possible reasons for the TFR decline among the newly arrived, decreased fertility in origin areas is suggested as a key driver.

Fertility, Migration and Acculturation (FEMINA): a research protocol for studying intersectional sexual and reproductive health inequalities

BACKGROUND

The existing knowledge on the interplay between reproductive and sexual health, migration and acculturation is recent and inconsistent, particularly on the sociocultural motives and constraints regarding fertility. Therefore, sexual and reproductive health (SRH) surveys are needed to provide accurate and comparable indicators to identify and address SRH inequalities, with specific focus on under researched aspects, such as the interrelation between migration and gender. FEMINA (FErtility, MIgratioN and Acculturation) aims to investigate intersectional SRH inequalities among Cape Verdean immigrant and Portuguese native families and how they impact on fertility in Portugal. This study will use a comprehensive approach exploring simultaneously the components of SRH, namely regarding identities, perceptions and practices of both women and men among lay people and relevant experts and stakeholders. The project has three main goals: 1) to identify social determinants of SRH among Cape Verdean immigrant and Portuguese native men and women of reproductive age; 2) to gain understanding of the diversity of the sexual and reproductive experiences and expectations of Cape Verdean immigrant and Portuguese native men and women of reproductive age, considering the singularities of their migratory, social and family dynamics; and 3) to produce recommendations for policy makers, employers and service providers on how to better address the SRH needs of Portuguese-born and immigrant populations.

METHODS

The study will address these goals using a mixed methods approach, including: a cross-sectional telephone survey with a probabilistic sample of 600 Cape Verdean immigrant and 600 Portuguese native women and men (women aged 18 to 49 and men aged 18 to 54), residents of the Greater Lisbon Area; a qualitative research through in-depth interviews with a subsample of 30 Cape Verdean immigrants and 30 Portuguese native men and women; and a Delphi technique for finding consensus on good practices in SRH for the entire population with a special emphasis on immigrants, namely extra-EU migrants.

DISCUSSION

Data will be used to produce a comprehensive set of indicators to monitor SRH in Portugal, to foster a greater understanding of its specificities and challenges to policy and decision makers, and to provide targeted recommendations to promote inclusive and migrant sensitive SRH services.

Fertility Change among Post-1989 Immigrants to Israel from the Former Soviet Union

Research on the evolution of immigrant fertility patterns has focused on the expected reduction in fertility among immigrants from high fertility, less developed countries who arrive in relatively low-fertility developed societies. The current research considers a different context in which immigrants from the low-fertility Former Soviet Union arrive in a relatively high-fertility setting in Israel. This research context allows us to test various theories of immigrant fertility, which cannot normally be distinguished empirically. Results from Cox multivariate regressions of parity-specific progression do not support assimilation theory, which would predict an increase in fertility following migration, in this context. We interpret the very low fertility rates of the FSU immigrants in Israel, relative to all relevant comparison groups, in terms of the economic uncertainty and hardship experienced during a difficult transition period by immigrants who have high aspirations for social mobility in their destination society.

Immigrant mothers' preferences for children's sexes: A register-based study of fertility behaviour in Norway

Parental sex preferences have been documented in many native populations, but much less evidence is available on immigrants' preferences for the sexes of their children. Using high-quality longitudinal register data from Norway, a country with a recent immigration history, we estimate hazards regression models of third birth risks by the sex composition of the first two children. A central question in the extant literature is whether the sex preferences of immigrant mothers match those observed in their country of origin, or if cultural adaption to local conditions is more important. Our analyses indicate that the sex preferences of immigrants generally match those previously documented for their native population, especially in the case of son preferences. The pattern of sex preferences is unmodified by the mother's exposure to the host society. In sum, our evidence generally supports theories emphasizing cultural persistence in preferences, rather than theories of adaption or immigrant selectivity.

Marriage Migration Versus Family Reunification: How Does the Marriage and Migration History Affect the Timing of First and Second Childbirth Among Turkish Immigrants in Germany?

Our study focuses on the fertility of first-generation female and male Turkish migrants in Germany. To evaluate whether timing effects such as fertility disruption or an interrelation of marriage, migration and childbirth occur, we examine first and second births in the years before and after immigration to Germany. The Turkish sample of the Generations and Gender Survey which was conducted in 2006 offers the unique opportunity to examine Turkish immigrants as a single immigrant category. We question the common understanding that Turkish immigrants who arrived to Germany after 1973 mainly arrived for family reunification resulting in high birth intensities immediately after immigration. To distinguish different circumstances under which male and female immigrants have arrived to Germany, we include the combined marriage and migration history of the couple. We find that first birth probabilities are elevated during the years immediately following migration. But this effect is not universal among migrants with different marriage and migration histories. It appears that the arrival effect of high birth intensities is particularly high among female immigrants and is evident only among marriage migrants, that is Turks who married a partner who already lived in Germany at the time of the wedding. By contrast, among those who immigrated for family reunification, we do not find such an arrival effect.

Use It or Save It? Migration Background and Parental Leave Uptake in Sweden

Sweden is a welfare state with a family policy that strongly emphasizes equality without distinction by place of birth or gender. In this study, we investigate the differences in uptake of parental leave between native and immigrant mothers, and the connection to labour-market attachment. Sweden represents a unique case study, not only because of the strong effort to combine work and family for all women and men, the high level of fertility and the large presence of immigrants in the country; it also enables a detailed and sophisticated analysis based on the high-quality data derived from its population registers. We find that immigrant mothers use more parental leave benefit the first year after their child's birth, but then fewer in the second year compared with native mothers. The differences diminish when labour-market activity is controlled for. Additionally, after a time in Sweden, immigrant mothers use leave more similarly to how native mothers do.

Persisting Differences or Adaptation to German Fertility Patterns? First and Second Birth Behavior of the 1.5 and Second Generation Turkish Migrants in Germany

In this study, we use data of the German Mikrozensus to explore first and second birth behavior of migrants' descendants. Whereas prior waves of the Mikrozensus only included respondents' citizenship, in the survey years 2005 and 2009 also parental citizenship has been surveyed. This allows us to identify respondents' migrant backgrounds, even if they have German citizenship. We distinguish those who migrated as children (1.5 generation) from those who were born to Turkish parents in Germany (second generation migrants). We compare both migrant generations to German non-migrants. Using discrete-time hazard models, our results show that 1.5 generation migrants have the highest probability of having a first and second birth, while German non-migrants have the lowest birth probabilities. The second generation lies in-between. This pattern also persists after taking the educational attainment of respondents into consideration. However, there seems to be an adaptation of highly educated second generation Turkish migrants to non-migrant Germans: we find no significant differences in the probability of having a first birth in the two groups. For second births, we do not find this pattern which might be related to the young age structure in the sample of second generation migrants.