FDA-iRISK--a comparative risk assessment system for evaluating and ranking food-hazard pairs: case studies on microbial hazards

Systematic risk ranking of microbiological hazards in infant foods

Ensuring food safety, particularly for vulnerable groups, like infants and young children, requires identifying and prioritizing potential hazards in food chains. We previously developed a web-based decision support system (DSS) to identify specific microbiological hazards (MHs) in infant and toddler foods through a structured five-step process. This study takes the framework further by introducing systematic risk ranking (RR) steps to rank MH risks with seven criteria: process survival, recontamination, growth opportunity, meal preparation, hazard-food association evidence, food consumption habits of infants and toddlers in the EU, and MH severity. Each criterion is given a semi-quantitative or quantitative score or risk value, contributing to the final MH risk calculation via three aggregation methods: semi-quantitative risk scoring, semi-quantitative risk value, and outranking multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). To validate the criteria and ranking approaches, we conducted a case study to rank MH risks in infant formula, compared the results of the three risk ranking methods, and additionally evaluated the ranking results against expert opinions to ensure their accuracy. The results showed strong agreement among the three methods, consistently ranking Salmonella non-Typhi and Cronobacter spp. and Shiga-toxin-producing Escherichia coli as the top MH risks in infant formulae, with minor deviations. When MHs were ranked after an initial hazard identification step, all three methods produced nearly identical MH rankings, reinforcing the reliability of the ranking steps and the selected criteria. Notably, the risk value and MCDA methods provided more informative MH rankings compared to the risk scoring method. The risk value and risk scoring methods were implemented into an online tool, called the MIcrobiological hazards risk RAnking decision support system (Mira-DSS), available at https://foodmicrobiologywur.shinyapps.io/MIcrobial_hazards_RAnking/. In conclusion, our framework enables the ranking of MH risks, facilitating intervention comparisons and resource allocations to mitigate MH risks in infant foods, with potential applicability to broader food categories.

Guidance on risk-benefit assessment of foods

The EFSA Scientific Committee has updated its 2010 Guidance on risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods. The update addresses methodological developments and regulatory needs. While it retains the stepwise RBA approach, it provides additional methods for complex assessments, such as multiple chemical hazards and all relevant health effects impacting different population subgroups. The updated guidance includes approaches for systematic identification, prioritisation and selection of hazardous and beneficial food components. It also offers updates relevant to characterising adverse and beneficial effects, such as measures of effect size and dose-response modelling. The guidance expands options for characterising risks and benefits, incorporating variability, uncertainty, severity categorisation and ranking of different (beneficial or adverse) effects. The impact of different types of health effects is assessed qualitatively or quantitatively, depending on the problem formulation, scope of the RBA question and data availability. The integration of risks and benefits often involves value-based judgements and should ideally be performed with the risk-benefit manager. Metrics such as Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) can be used. Additional approaches are presented, such as probability of all relevant effects and/or effects of given severities and their integration using severity weight functions. The update includes practical guidance on reporting results, interpreting outcomes and communicating the outcome of an RBA, considering consumer perspectives and responses to advice.

A tiered approach of hazard-prioritization and risk-ranking for chemical hazards in food commodities: Application for selected mycotoxins

Chemical hazards in foods, especially naturally occurring food contaminants like mycotoxins, are of serious public health concern. It is important to develop a practical framework to assess and rank health risks of chemical contaminants which can be further utilized by regulatory agencies to prioritize resources for risk assessment and management. In this study, a tiered hazard-prioritization and risk-ranking approach, which included two steps: exposure-based screening and margin of exposure (MOE)-based probabilistic risk ranking; was proposed to efficiently identify and rank chemicals of health concerns. Given the exposure-based hazard prioritization, chemicals with negligible or low health risks were first excluded. The remaining chemicals, imposing a higher health risk, were then ranked to facilitate risk-based decision making. The proposed approach was applied to identify and rank the mycotoxins with substantial health concerns in food commodities randomly sampled in China. A total of 19 mycotoxins were analyzed in 783 food commodities, including infant cookie, noodle, rice flour samples, wheat flour, millet, and rice. Results showed that the mycotoxins in infant foods with the highest health risk were Tenuazonic acid, Deoxynivalenol, and Enniatin B1, but as indicated by the probabilistic MOE estimation, the risks were still in the acceptable range and generally lower than the risks imposed by trace elements (e.g., Arsenic and Cadmium). The health risks of the other 16 mycotoxins were negligible mainly due to their low exposure levels. This study demonstrated that the proposed tiered approach was an efficient and effective tool to quantify and prioritize health risks in support of human health risk management.

Disease burden contributed by dietary exposure to aflatoxins in a mountainous city in Southwest China

Introduction

Aflatoxins (AFT) identified as a Group 1 human carcinogen naturally contaminate various types of food and could increase the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) through dietary intake. Chongqing municipality is located in Southwest China with subtropical monsoon climate which is conducive to AFT contamination in crops. However, the burden of HCC caused by the dietary exposure of the population in Chongqing to AFT has not been quantified.

Methods

The burden of HCC was estimated in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) using FDA-iRISK software. Dietary exposure to AFT in three food categories including grain and its products, nuts and seeds, and spices was assessed.

Results

The lifetime average daily dose (LADD) of AFT exposure for the population ranged from 2.40 to 8.25 ng/kg bw/day and 9.51 to 15.10 ng/kg bw/day at the mean and heavy (P95) AFT contamination levels, respectively. Among the three food categories, grain and its products contributed most to AFT exposure of the population. The estimated DALYs related to HCC induced by AFT were 162,000-556,000 and 641,000-1,020,000; the DALY rates were 6.47-22.20 and 25.59-40.72 per 100,000 persons per year; and the population attribution fractions (PAF) were 1.68-5.78% and 6.66-10.60%.

Discussion

Although the burden of HCC caused by dietary AFT was estimated to be relatively low among the population, the overall health burden might be underestimated owing to the uncertainties of this dataset. Thus, the overall health burden associated with AFT intake should still be of concern in further studies.

Microbiological Risk Assessment in Foods: Background and Tools, with a Focus on Risk Ranger

Risk assessment is an important phase of the food production path; it is strictly related to the processing chain as a necessary step for safe foods. This paper represents a contribution to understanding what is and how risk assessment could be conducted; it aims to provide some information on the structure of risk assessment, the tools for its identification and measurement and the importance of risk assessment for correct communication. In this context, after a focus on the background and on some commonly used tools (Risk Ranger, FDA-iRisk, decision tree, among others), the paper describes how to perform risk assessment through three case studies: lettuce (for Listeria monocytogenes), chicken salad (for Escherichia coli), and fresh egg pasta (for Staphylococcus aureus) in the first step, and then a comparison of risk for chicken salad contaminated by different pathogens (E. coli O157:H7, Campylobacter spp. and Salmonella sp.). As a final step, a critical evaluation of Risk Ranger was carried out, pointing out its pros and cons.

Campylobacter Species, Microbiological Source Tracking and Risk Assessment of Bacterial pathogens

Campylobacter species continue to remain critical pathogens of public health interest. They are responsible for approximately 500 million cases of gastroenteritis per year worldwide. Infection occurs through the consumption of contaminated food and water. Microbial risk assessment and source tracking are crucial epidemiological strategies to monitor the outbreak of campylobacteriosis effectively. Various methods have been proposed for microbial source tracking and risk assessment, most of which rely on conventional microbiological techniques such as detecting fecal indicator organisms and other novel microbial source tracking methods, including library-dependent microbial source tracking and library-independent source tracking approaches. However, both the traditional and novel methods have their setbacks. For example, while the conventional techniques are associated with a poor correlation between indicator organism and pathogen presence, on the other hand, it is impractical to interpret qPCR-generated markers to establish the exact human health risks even though it can give information regarding the potential source and relative human risk. Therefore, this article provides up-to-date information on campylobacteriosis, various approaches for source attribution, and risk assessment of bacterial pathogens, including next-generation sequencing approaches such as shotgun metagenomics, which effectively answer the questions of potential pathogens are there and in what quantities.

Establishment and application of risk classification model for lead in vegetables based on spectral clustering algorithms

This study aims to evaluate the risk of lead pollution in 9 kinds of vegetables consumed by residents in 20 provinces/cities of China. Sampling data and vegetable consumption data from 20 provinces/cities in 2019 were used. Combined with dietary exposure assessment, the vegetable categories and provinces were paired, and a risk classification model based on spectral clustering algorithms was proposed. The results of the spectral clustering algorithm showed that the risk level of lead pollution in vegetables can be divided into five levels. The combination of vegetable-province/cities at the risk level of 1 and 2 accounted for 92.78%, and that at the risk level of 4 and 5 accounted for 2.22%. The high-risk combinations were fresh edible fungus-Shaanxi, fresh edible fungus-Sichuan, and fresh edible fungus-Shanghai and bean sprouts-Guangdong. In the proposed model, objective data were used as the classification index, and the spectral clustering algorithm was employed to select the optimal risk classification in a data-driven way. As a result, the influence of subjective factors was effectively reduced, the risk of lead pollution in vegetables was classified, and the results were scientific and accurate. This study provides a scientific basis of supervision priorities for regulatory departments.

Development and application of a comparative risk assessment method for ranking chemical hazards in food

The aim of this study was to develop a comparative risk assessment method to prioritise the public health risks posed by chemical hazards in food. Through a literature review, and in light of expert opinions, a bottom-up, semi-quantitative scoring method was applied to screen the ranking metrics and assign a score. In addition, a metrics system and a ranking model were constructed. The fuzzy comprehensive analysis model was used to assess typical chemical hazards in a specific food, as well as to rank risks in many foods. Data were collected from the National Food Surveillance System in China, the Food Consumption of Chinese Residents Database, government reports, public websites and databases of authoritative organisations. The comparative risk assessment method was applied to case studies on ranking chemical hazards in different kinds of food. According to application testing, the method truly reflects the overall risk and ranking of chemical hazards in food.

Predictive Growth Modeling of Listeria monocytogenes in Rice Balls and Its Risk Assessment

This study aimed to investigate the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in rice balls and to conduct its microbial risk assessment based on the Korean dietary pattern. Each tuna or ham rice ball was mixed with mayonnaise, soy sauce, or gochujang, a Korean traditional fermented red peeper paste, which was artificially contaminated with L. monocytogenes and then stored at 7°C–25°C to assess bacterial growth. Growth data were analyzed using three primary models (the Huang, Baranyi, and Gompertz models), and the growth pattern was found to fit well to the Baranyi model based on the following five statistical criteria: root mean square error (0.38–0.56), Akaike’s information criterion (−51.55–−26.99), coefficient of determination (0.72–0.97), bias factor (0.97–1.01), and accuracy factor (1.06–1.18). The effects of temperature on bacterial growth rate and lag time were evaluated using the square root model. The minimum growth temperature for L. monocytogenes in tuna or ham rice balls was the lowest when they were mixed with mayonnaise (−9.44°C or −15.37°C, respectively). Risk assessment using FDA-iRISK showed that tuna or ham rice balls mixed with gochujang exhibited the highest microbial risk among all the rice balls tested, regardless of the storage temperature. Tuna or ham rice balls mixed with gochujang had the highest disability-adjusted life years per year (0.015) followed by ham rice balls mixed with soy sauce (0.011–0.015) or mayonnaise (0.006–0.015) and then tuna rice balls mixed with soy sauce (0.006–0.008) or mayonnaise (<0.001). In conclusion, our results, determined using predictive growth models, allow the assessment of potential risk ranking associated with the consumption of rice balls contaminated with L. monocytogenes based on the number of illnesses experienced per serving and the disease burden.

A common approach for ranking of microbiological and chemical hazards in foods based on risk assessment - useful but is it possible?

This article compares and contrasts microbial and chemical risk assessment methodologies in order to evaluate the potential for a common framework for ranking of risk of chemical and microbiological hazards, and developments needed for such a framework. An overview of microbial (MRA) and chemical (CRA) risk assessment is presented and important differences are highlighted. Two microbiological and two chemical hazard-food combinations were ranked based on both a margin of exposure and a risk assessment approach. The comparisons illustrated that it is possible to rank chemical and microbiological hazard-food combinations with traditional approaches from each domain and indicated that the rank order but not the absolute measures is similar using either approach. Including severity in the assessment using DALY reduced differences between hazards and affected the outcome more than which approach was used. Ranking frameworks should include assessment of uncertainty as an integral part of the ranking, and be based on assessment of risk, not safety, and expressed in a common health metric such as disease burden. Necessary simplifications to address data gaps can involve the use of default scenarios. Challenges include comparisons of case-based vs. non-case-based health-endpoints, e.g. biomarker concentration, and integration of the severity of health effects into ranking.

Using disease-burden method to evaluate the strategies for reduction of aflatoxin exposure in peanuts

Aflatoxin is a fungal secondary metabolite with high toxicity that is capable of contaminating various types of food crops. It has been identified as a Group 1 human carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Chronic aflatoxin exposure has caused worldwide concern as a matter of public food safety. Peanuts and peanut products are the major sources of aflatoxin exposure. Therefore, some reduction interventions have been developed to minimize contamination throughout the peanut production chain. The purpose of this study is to estimate the efficacy of interventions in reducing the health impact of hepatocellular carcinoma caused by aflatoxin contamination in peanuts. The estimated total Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were calculated using FDA-iRISK software. Six aflatoxin reduction strategies were evaluated, including good agricultural practice (GAP), biocontrol, Purdue Improved Crop Storage packaging, basic processing, ozonolysis, and ultraviolet irradiation. The results indicated that basic processing could prevent huge public health loss of 4,079.7-21,833 total DALYs per year. In addition, GAP and biocontrol were both found to be effective strategies in the farm field. Meanwhile, the other three interventions had limited effectiveness in reducing total DALYs. In conclusion, this study could help farmers, processing plants, and government policy makers to alleviate aflatoxin contamination issues in the peanut production chain.

A Quantitative Risk Assessment of Human Salmonellosis from Consumption of Walnuts in the United States

We assessed the risk of human salmonellosis from consumption of shelled walnuts in the United States and the impact of 0- to 5-log reduction treatments for Salmonella during processing. We established a baseline model with Salmonella contamination data from 2010 to 2013 surveys of walnuts from California operations to estimate baseline prevalence and levels of Salmonella during preshelling storage and typical walnut processing stages, considered U.S. consumption data, and applied an adapted dose-response model from the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Health Organization to evaluate risk of illness per serving and per year. Our baseline model predicted 1 case of salmonellosis per 100 million servings (95% confidence interval [CI], 1 case per 3 million to 1 case per 2 billion servings) of walnuts untreated during processing and uncooked by consumers, resulting in an estimated 6 cases of salmonellosis per year (95% CI, <1 to 278 cases) in the United States. A minimum 3-log reduction treatment for Salmonella during processing of walnuts eaten alone or as an uncooked ingredient resulted in a mean risk of <1 case per year. We modeled the impact on risk per serving of three atypical situations in which the Salmonella levels were increased by 0.5 to 1.5 log CFU per unit pretreatment during processing at the float tank or during preshelling storage or posttreatment during partitioning into consumer packages. No change in risk was associated with the small increase in levels of Salmonella at the float tank, whereas an increase in risk was estimated for each of the other two atypical events. In a fourth scenario, we estimated the risk per serving associated with consumption of walnuts with Salmonella prevalence and levels from a 2014 to 2015 U.S. retail survey. Risk per serving estimates were two orders of magnitude larger than those of the baseline model without treatment. Further research is needed to determine whether this finding reflects variability in Salmonella contamination across the supply or a rare event affecting a portion of the supply.

Risk Assessment of Salmonellosis from Consumption of Alfalfa Sprouts and Evaluation of the Public Health Impact of Sprout Seed Treatment and Spent Irrigation Water Testing

We developed a risk assessment of human salmonellosis associated with consumption of alfalfa sprouts in the United States to evaluate the public health impact of applying treatments to seeds (0-5-log₁₀ reduction in Salmonella) and testing spent irrigation water (SIW) during production. The risk model considered variability and uncertainty in Salmonella contamination in seeds, Salmonella growth and spread during sprout production, sprout consumption, and Salmonella dose response. Based on an estimated prevalence of 2.35% for 6.8 kg seed batches and without interventions, the model predicted 76,600 (95% confidence interval (CI) 15,400-248,000) cases/year. Risk reduction (by 5- to 7-fold) predicted from a 1-log₁₀ seed treatment alone was comparable to SIW testing alone, and each additional 1-log₁₀ seed treatment was predicted to provide a greater risk reduction than SIW testing. A 3-log₁₀ or a 5-log₁₀ seed treatment reduced the predicted cases/year to 139 (95% CI 33-448) or 1.4 (95% CI <1-4.5), respectively. Combined with SIW testing, a 3-log₁₀ or 5-log₁₀ seed treatment reduced the cases/year to 45 (95% CI 10-146) or <1 (95% CI <1-1.5), respectively. If the SIW coverage was less complete (i.e., less representative), a smaller risk reduction was predicted, e.g., a combined 3-log₁₀ seed treatment and SIW testing with 20% coverage resulted in an estimated 92 (95% CI 22-298) cases/year. Analysis of alternative scenarios using different assumptions for key model inputs showed that the predicted relative risk reductions are robust. This risk assessment provides a comprehensive approach for evaluating the public health impact of various interventions in a sprout production system.

A Quantitative Risk Assessment of Human Salmonellosis from Consumption of Pistachios in the United States

We developed a quantitative risk assessment model to assess the risk of human nontyphoidal salmonellosis from consumption of pistachios in the United States and to evaluate the impact of Salmonella treatments (1- to 5-log reductions). The exposure model estimating prevalence and contamination levels of Salmonella at consumption included steps in pistachio processing such as transport from grower to huller, removal of the hull through wet abrasion, separation of pistachio floaters (immature, smaller nuts) and sinkers (mature, larger nuts) in a flotation tank, drying, storage, and partitioning. The risks of illness per serving and per year were evaluated by including a Salmonella dose-response model and U.S. consumption data. The spread of Salmonella through float tank water, delay in drying resulting in growth, increased Salmonella levels through pest infestation during storage (pre- and posttreatment), and a simulation of the 2016 U.S. salmonellosis outbreak linked to consumption of pistachios were the modeled atypical situations. The baseline model predicted one case of salmonellosis per 2 million servings (95% CI: one case per 5 million to 800,000 servings) for sinker pistachios and one case per 200,000 servings (95% CI: one case per 400,000 to 40,000 servings) for floater pistachios when no Salmonella treatment was applied and pistachios were consumed as a core product (>80% pistachio) uncooked at home. Assuming 90% of the pistachio supply is sinkers and 10% is floaters, the model estimated 419 salmonellosis cases per year (95% CI: 200 to 1,083 cases) when no Salmonella treatment was applied. A mean risk of illness of less than one case per year was estimated when a minimum 4-log reduction treatment was applied to the U.S. pistachio supply, similar to the results of the Salmonella risk assessment for almonds. This analysis revealed that the predicted risk of illness per serving is higher for all atypical situations modeled compared with the baseline, and delay in drying had the greatest impact on consumer risk.

Transfer and Redistribution of Salmonella Typhimurium LT2 and Escherichia coli O157:H7 during Pilot-Scale Processing of Baby Spinach, Cilantro, and Romaine Lettuce

Several outbreaks of foodborne illness traced to leafy greens and culinary herbs have been hypothesized to involve cross-contamination during washing and processing. This study aimed to assess the redistribution of Salmonella Typhimurium LT2 during pilot-scale production of baby spinach and cilantro and redistribution of Escherichia coli O157:H7 during pilot-scale production of romaine lettuce. Four inoculated surrogate:uninoculated product weight ratios (10:100, 5:100, 1:100, and 0.5:100) and three inoculation levels (103, 101, and 10-1 CFU/g) were used for the three commodities. For each of three trials per condition, 5-kg batches containing uninoculated product and spot-inoculated surrogate products at each ratio and inoculation level were washed for 90 s in a 3.6-m-long flume tank through which 890 L of sanitizer-free, filtered tap water was circulated. After washing and removing the inoculated surrogate products, washed product (∼23, 225-g samples per trial) was analyzed for presence or absence of Salmonella Typhimurium or E. coli O157:H7 by using the GeneQuence Assay. For baby spinach, cilantro, and romaine lettuce, no significant differences ( P > 0.05) in the percentage of positive samples were observed at the same inoculation level and inoculated:uninoculated weight ratio. For each pathogen product evaluated (triplicate trials), inoculation level had a significant impact on the percentage of positive samples after processing, with the percentage of positive samples decreasing, as the initial surrogate inoculation level decreased. The weight ratio of contaminated:noncontaminated product plays an important role: positive samples ranged from 0% to 11.6% ± 2.05% and from 68.1% ± 33.6% to 100% among the four ratios at inoculation of 10-1 and 101 CFU/g, respectively. To our knowledge, this study is the first to assess the redistribution of low levels of pathogens from incoming product to leafy greens during processing and should provide important data for microbial risk assessments and other types of food safety analyses related to fresh-cut leafy greens.

The STARTEC Decision Support Tool for Better Tradeoffs between Food Safety, Quality, Nutrition, and Costs in Production of Advanced Ready-to-Eat Foods

A prototype decision support IT-tool for the food industry was developed in the STARTEC project. Typical processes and decision steps were mapped using real life production scenarios of participating food companies manufacturing complex ready-to-eat foods. Companies looked for a more integrated approach when making food safety decisions that would align with existing HACCP systems. The tool was designed with shelf life assessments and data on safety, quality, and costs, using a pasta salad meal as a case product. The process flow chart was used as starting point, with simulation options at each process step. Key parameters like pH, water activity, costs of ingredients and salaries, and default models for calculations of Listeria monocytogenes, quality scores, and vitamin C, were placed in an interactive database. Customization of the models and settings was possible on the user-interface. The simulation module outputs were provided as detailed curves or categorized as "good"; "sufficient"; or "corrective action needed" based on threshold limit values set by the user. Possible corrective actions were suggested by the system. The tool was tested and approved by end-users based on selected ready-to-eat food products. Compared to other decision support tools, the STARTEC-tool is product-specific and multidisciplinary and includes interpretation and targeted recommendations for end-users.

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment in food industry: Theory and practical application

The objective of this article is to bring scientific background as well as practical hints and tips to guide risk assessors and modelers who want to develop a quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) in an industrial context. MRA aims at determining the public health risk associated with biological hazards in a food. Its implementation in industry enables to compare the efficiency of different risk reduction measures, and more precisely different operational settings, by predicting their effect on the final model output. The first stage in MRA is to clearly define the purpose and scope with stakeholders, risk assessors and modelers. Then, a probabilistic model is developed; this includes schematically three important phases. Firstly, the model structure has to be defined, i.e. the connections between different operational processing steps. An important step in food industry is the thermal processing leading to microbial inactivation. Growth of heat-treated surviving microorganisms and/or post-process contamination during storage phase is also important to take into account. Secondly, mathematical equations are determined to estimate the change of microbial load after each processing step. This phase includes the construction of model inputs by collecting data or eliciting experts. Finally, the model outputs are obtained by simulation procedures, they have to be interpreted and communicated to targeted stakeholders. In this latter phase, tools such as what-if scenarios provide an essential added value. These different MRA phases are illustrated through two examples covering important issues in industry. The first one covers process optimization in a food safety context, the second one covers shelf-life determination in a food quality context. Although both contexts required the same methodology, they do not have the same endpoint: up to the human health in the foie gras case-study illustrating here a safety application, up to the food portion in the brioche case-study illustrating here a quality application.

Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food-related hazards, based on risks for human health

This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science and socio-economic sciences. The review used a predefined search protocol, and covered the bibliographic databases Scopus, CAB Abstracts, Web of Sciences, and PubMed over the period 1993-2013. All references deemed relevant, on the basis of predefined evaluation criteria, were included in the review, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered-based on their characteristics-into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years (HALY), multi-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking. The method to be used should be selected on the basis of risk manager/assessor requirements, data availability, and the characteristics of the method. Recommendations for future use and application are provided.

A Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Human Salmonellosis Arising from the Consumption of Almonds in the United States: The Impact of Preventive Treatment Levels

The presence of Salmonella on almonds continues to result in product-related outbreaks and recalls in the United States. In this study, the impact of microbial reduction treatment levels (1 to 5 log CFU) on the risk of human salmonellosis from the consumption of almond kernels in the United States was evaluated. An exposure model, including major steps in almond processing, was used to estimate prevalence and levels of contamination of Salmonella on almonds at the point of consumption. A Salmonella dose-response model and consumption data for almonds in the United States were used to assess risk of illness per serving and per year, quantifying variability and uncertainty separately. A 3-log reduction treatment resulted in a predicted mean risk of illness of two cases per year for almonds consumed as a core product not cooked at home (95% confidence interval [CI], one to four cases), one case per year for almonds consumed as an ingredient not cooked at home (95% CI, one to two cases), and less than one case per year for almonds consumed as an ingredient cooked at home (95% CI, 7 × 10-7 to 3 × 10-6 cases). A minimum 4-log reduction treatment resulted in an estimated mean risk of illness below one case per year in the United States. This study also includes an assessment of the risk of human salmonellosis as a result of an exceptional situation, which results in higher risk estimates compared with the baseline model. The exceptional situations modeled posttreatment resulted in estimates of mean risk that were not significantly affected by treatment level. Sensitivity analysis results showed initial Salmonella contamination level to be the factor with the most impact on risk per serving estimates, given a certain treatment level. The risk assessment also includes a simulation of the events that occurred in 2001. Treatment levels with a minimum 4-log microbial reduction would have been sufficient to prevent the outbreak cases. The uncertainty range in the estimates indicates that additional information is needed to make more precise predictions of this specific outbreak event.

Development of a microbial dose response visualization and modelling application for QMRA modelers and educators

Microbial dose response modelling is vital to a well-characterized microbial risk estimate. Dose response modelling is an inherently multidisciplinary field, which collates knowledge and data from disparate scientific fields. This multidisciplinary nature presents a key challenge to the expansion of microbial dose response modelling into new groups of researchers and modelers. This research employs a dose response optimization R code used in 18 peer-reviewed research studies to develop a multi-functional dose response software. The underlying R code performs an optimization of the two primary dose response models using the MLE method and outputs statistical analyses of the fits and bootstrapped uncertainty information for the models. VizDR (Visual Dose Response) was developed to provide microbial dose response modelling capabilities to a larger audience. VizDR is programmed in JavaScript with underlying Python scripts for intercommunication with Rserve. VizDR allows for dose response model visualization and optimization of a user's own experimental data.

Survival and Risk Comparison of Campylobacter jejuni on Various Processed Meat Products

The objective of this study was to investigate survival kinetics of Campylobacter jejuni on various processed meat products (dry-cured ham, round ham with/without sodium nitrite, garlic seasoned ham with/without sodium nitrite, and sausage without sodium nitrite). Additionally, a semi-quantitative risk assessment of C. jejuni on various processed meat products was conducted using FDA-iRISK 1.0. Inoculated processed meat products with 6.0 ± 0.5 log CFU/g of C. jejuni were vacuum packed and stored at 4, 10, 17, 24, 30, and 36 °C. Survival curves were fitted to the Weibull model to obtain the delta values of C. jejuni on various processed meat products. The most rapid death of C. jejuni was observed on dry-cured ham, followed by sausage without sodium nitrite. The results of semi-quantitative risk assessment indicate that dry-cured ham represented the lowest risk among all samples. C. jejuni on processed meats presented a greater risk at 4 °C than at 10 °C. The risk of ham was greater than the risk of sausage, regardless of type. Among all samples, the highest risk of C. jejuni was observed in round ham without sodium nitrite. Overall, our data indicates that risk of processed meat products due to C. jejuni is relatively low.

A scoping review of the evidence for public health risks of three emerging potentially zoonotic viruses: hepatitis E virus, norovirus, and rotavirus

Emerging zoonoses are defined as those newly recognized, or increasing in incidence or geographic range. Hepatitis E virus (HEV), norovirus (NoV), and rotavirus (RV), while well known to be transmitted person-person, have also been hypothesized to be emerging zoonoses. Our objective was to investigate their potential public health risks from animal reservoirs. Given the diversity of evidence sources, a scoping review incorporating a mixed methods synthesis approach was used. A broad search was conducted in five electronic databases. Each citation was appraised independently by two reviewers using screening tools designed and tested a priori. Level 1 relevance screening excluded irrelevant citations; level 2 confirmed relevance and categorized. At level 3 screening, data were extracted to support a risk profile. A stakeholder group provided input on study tools and knowledge translation and transfer. Level 1 screening captured 2471 citations, with 1270 advancing to level 2 screening, and 1094 to level 3. We defined criteria for case attribution to zoonosis for each virus. Using these criteria, we identified a small number of zoonotic cases (HEV n=3, NoV=0, RV=40 (zoonoses=3; human-animal re-assortants=37)) categorized as 'likely'. The available evidence suggests the following potential HEV human exposure sources: swine, other domestic animals, wildlife, surface waters, and asymptomatic human shedders. Possible at-risk groups include the immunocompromised and the elderly. Reports of NoV intergenogroup recombinants suggest potential for human-animal recombination. Greatest public health impact for RV zoonoses may be the potential effect of human-animal reassortants on vaccination efficacy.

The RAB5-GEF function of RIN1 regulates multiple steps during Listeria monocytogenes infection

Listeria monocytogenes is a food-borne pathogenic bacterium that invades intestinal epithelial cells through a phagocytic pathway that relies on the activation of host cell RAB5 GTPases. Listeria monocytogenes must subsequently inhibit RAB5, however, in order to escape lysosome-mediated destruction. Relatively little is known about upstream RAB5 regulators during L. monocytogenes entry and phagosome escape processes in epithelial cells. Here we identify RIN1, a RAS effector and RAB5-directed guanine nucleotide exchange factor (GEF), as a host cell factor in L. monocytogenes infection. RIN1 is rapidly engaged following L. monocytogenes infection and is required for efficient invasion of intestinal epithelial cells. RIN1-mediated RAB5 activation later facilitates the fusion of phagosomes with lysosomes, promoting clearance of bacteria from the host cell. These results suggest that RIN1 is a host cell regulator that performs counterbalancing functions during early and late stages of L. monocytogenes infection, ultimately favoring pathogen clearance.

Proposal of performance objectives and sampling schemes for Listeria monocytogenes in fresh meat intended to be eaten cooked under different storage practices

The goal of this study was to define a practical approach to derive risk management measures, such as performance objectives (POs), for Listeria monocytogenes in pork cuts intended to be eaten cooked. Moreover, sampling plans to verify the compliance of meat lots to such POs are presented. The POs were estimated as prevalence and/or concentration values that should not be exceeded at time of consumption. To derive possible POs for L. monocytogenes, ten lots of pork cuts, collected within the same slaughterhouse along a one-year period, were tested for the presence and concentration of the pathogen under four different scenarios through the product shelf life. Our results indicated that the median values of the prevalence distributions ranged between 0.41 and 0.68. The number of samples to be tested in order to verify lot compliance ranged between six, for samples tested immediately after packaging, and three, for samples tested at the end of the shelf life. The concentration values ranged between 2.02 log10 CFU/g, for samples tested immediately after packaging, up to 3.14 log10 CFU/g for samples tested after final storage at 14°C. The concentration of L. monocytogenes in the samples contaminated by less than 10 CFU/g was estimated between 7 CFU/10g to 7 CFU/g, after storage at retail and abuse temperature, respectively. Basing on the knowledge of log normal distributions, the maximum contamination level of the lots in order to achieve the suggested POs, was calculated. It was obtained that mean concentration estimated as PO should be between -0.43 and 0.48 log10 CFU/g. Other risk management options are further evaluated and discussed. These results would help food operators and authorities to establish safety targets and corrective actions regarding inhibition of L. monocytogenes in fresh pork meat.

Review of various approaches for assessing public health risks in regulatory decision making: choosing the right approach for the problem

Stakeholders in the public health risk analysis community can possess differing opinions about what is meant by "conduct a risk assessment." In reality, there is no one-size-fits-all risk assessment that can address all public health issues, problems, and regulatory needs. Although several international and national organizations (e.g., Codex Alimentarius Commission, Office International des Epizooties, Food and Agricultural Organization, World Health Organization, National Research Council, and European Food Safety Authority) have addressed this issue, confusion remains. The type and complexity of a risk assessment must reflect the risk management needs to appropriately inform a regulatory or nonregulatory decision, i.e., a risk assessment is ideally "fit for purpose" and directly applicable to risk management issues of concern. Frequently however, there is a lack of understanding by those not completely familiar with risk assessment regarding the specific utility of different approaches for assessing public health risks. This unfamiliarity can unduly hamper the acceptance of risk assessment results by risk managers and may reduce the usefulness of such results for guiding public health policies, practices, and operations. Differences in interpretation of risk assessment terminology further complicate effective communication among risk assessors, risk managers, and stakeholders. This article provides an overview of the types of risk assessments commonly conducted, with examples primarily from the food and agricultural sectors, and a discussion of the utility and limitations of these specific approaches for assessing public health risks. Clarification of the risk management issues and corresponding risk assessment design needs during the formative stages of the risk analysis process is a key step for ensuring that the most appropriate assessment of risk is developed and used to guide risk management decisions.