Impact of the Australian National Cervical Screening Program in women of different ages

Coverage of cervical cancer prevention interventions among people in Australia who inject drugs

BACKGROUND

The human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine and regular (i.e., every five years) cervical screening are essential to prevent cervical cancer. Australia has high overall coverage of both interventions but little is known about coverage among people who inject drugs. and known barriers to preventive care among this population may extend to cervical cancer control measures.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the 2023 Illicit Drug Reporting System interviews, in which people who regularly inject drugs participated. The sample was restricted to people with a cervix, with participants aged 25-74 years eligible for the National Cervical Screening Program and participants born after 1980 eligible for HPV vaccination. Age-standardised prevalence ratios were used to compare coverage among this sample to the Australian general population; other results were summarised descriptively.

FINDINGS

Among participants eligible for screening (n = 243), most (96.7 %) reported lifetime uptake, while 70.2 % had been screened during the past five years, which was similar to the general population (prevalence ratio [PR]: 1.14, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.96-1.31). Among those never or overdue for screening (n = 57), one third (31.7 %) were aware that self-sampling is available and barriers to screening varied, with similar numbers reporting personal (e.g., 'I didn't know I needed to'), logistical (e.g., 'I don't have time'), and test-related reasons (e.g., 'the test is uncomfortable/painful'). Among participants eligible for HPV vaccination (n = 99), coverage was 27.2 %, 38 % lower than the general population (PR: 0.62, 95 % CI: 0.39-0.86).

CONCLUSIONS

Cervical screening coverage among this sample of people who inject drugs was similar to the Australian population. Health promotion messaging that focuses on the availability of self-sampling and the importance of regular screening may improve coverage among those overdue for screening. HPV vaccination was lower than the general population, warranting targeted efforts to offer the vaccine to eligible people who inject drugs.

Epidemiology of HPV-associated cancers past, present and future: towards prevention and elimination

Cervical cancer is the first cancer deemed amenable to elimination through prevention, and thus lessons from the epidemiology and prevention of this cancer type can provide information on strategies to manage other cancers. Infection with the human papillomavirus (HPV) causes virtually all cervical cancers, and an important proportion of oropharyngeal, anal and genital cancers. Whereas 20th century prevention efforts were dominated by cytology-based screening, the present and future of HPV-associated cancer prevention relies mostly on HPV vaccination and molecular screening tests. In this Review, we provide an overview of the epidemiology of HPV-associated cancers, their disease burden, how past and contemporary preventive interventions have shaped their incidence and mortality, and the potential for elimination. We particularly focus on the cofactors that could have the greatest effect on prevention efforts, such as parity and human immunodeficiency virus infection, as well as on social determinants of health. Given that the incidence of and mortality from HPV-associated cancers remain strongly associated with the socioeconomic status of individuals and the human development index of countries, elimination efforts are unlikely to succeed unless prevention efforts focus on health equity, with a commitment to both primary and secondary prevention.

Pregnancy-associated gynecological cancer in New South Wales, Australia 1994-2013: A population-based historical cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Pregnancy-associated gynecological cancer (PAGC) refers to cancers of the ovary, uterus, fallopian tube, cervix, vagina, and vulva diagnosed during pregnancy or within 12 months postpartum. We aimed to describe the incidence of, and perinatal outcomes associated with, invasive pregnancy-associated gynecological cancer.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We conducted a population-based historical cohort study using linked data from New South Wales, Australia. We included all women who gave birth between 1994 and 2013, with a follow-up period extending to September 30, 2018. Three groups were analyzed: a gestational PAGC group (women diagnosed during pregnancy), a postpartum PAGC group (women diagnosed within 1 year of giving birth), and a control group (women with control diagnosis during pregnancy or within 1 year of giving birth). We used generalized estimation equations to compare perinatal outcomes between study groups.

RESULTS

There were 1 786 137 deliveries during the study period; 70 women were diagnosed with gestational PAGC and 191 with postpartum PAGC. The incidence of PAGC was 14.6/100 000 deliveries and did not change during the study period. Women with gestational PAGC (adjusted odds ratio [aAOR] 6.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.97-15.62) and with postpartum PAGC (aOR 2.65, 95% CI 1.25-5.61) had significantly increased odds of a severe maternal morbidity outcome compared with the control group. Babies born to women with gestational PAGC were more likely to be born preterm (aOR 3.11, 95% CI 1.47-6.59) and were at increased odds of severe neonatal complications (aOR 3.47, 95% CI 1.45-8.31) compared with babies born to women without PAC.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of PAGC has not increased over time perhaps reflecting, in part, the effectiveness of cervical screening and early impacts of human papillomavirus vaccination programs in Australia. The higher rate of preterm birth among the gestational PAGC group is associated with adverse outcomes in babies born to these women.

Participation in the national cervical screening programme among women from New South Wales, Australia, by place of birth and time since immigration: A data linkage analysis using the 45 and up study

OBJECTIVE

Equitable elimination of cervical cancer in Australia within the next decade will require high National Cervical Screening Program (NCSP) participation by all subgroups of women. The aim of this study was to examine the participation of immigrants compared to Australian-born women.

METHODS

Participation in the NCSP (≥1cytology test) over a 3-year (2010-2012) and 5-year (2008-2012) period, by place of birth and time since immigration was examined using individually linked data of 67,350 New South Wales (NSW) women aged ≥45 enrolled in the 45 and Up Study.

RESULTS

Three-year cervical screening participation was 77.0% overall. Compared to Australian-born women (77.8%), 3-year participation was lower for women born in New Zealand (adjusted odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.69-0.87), Oceania (0.67, 0.51-0.89), Middle East/North Africa (0.76, 0.60-0.97), South-East Asia (0.72, 0.60-0.87), Chinese Asia (0.82, 0.69-0.97), Japan/South Korea (0.68, 0.50-0.94), and Southern/Central Asia (0.54, 0.43-0.67), but higher for women from Malta (2.85, 1.77-4.58) and South America (1.33, 1.01-1.75). Non-English-speaking-at-home women were less likely to be screened than English-speaking-at-home women (0.85, 0.78-0.93). Participation increased with years lived in Australia but remained lower in immigrant groups compared to Australian-born women, even after ≥20 years living in Australia. Similar results were observed for 5-year participation.

CONCLUSIONS

Women born in New Zealand, Oceania, and parts of Asia and the Middle East had lower NCSP participation, which persisted for ≥20 years post-immigration. The NCSP transition to primary HPV screening, and the introduction of the universal self-collection option in 2022, will offer new opportunities for increasing screening participation for these groups.

The early impacts of primary HPV cervical screening implementation in Australia on the pathology sector: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

The transition of Australia's National Cervical Screening Program from cytology to a molecular test for human papillomavirus (HPV) (locally referred to as the 'Renewal'), including a longer five-year interval and older age at commencement, significantly impacted all sectors of program delivery. The Renewal had major implications for the roles and requirements of pathology laboratories providing services for the Program. This study aimed to understand the early impacts of the Renewal and its implementation on the pathology sector.

METHODS

Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with key stakeholders (N = 49) involved in the STakeholder Opinions of Renewal Implementation and Experiences Study (STORIES), 11-20 months after the program transition. A subset of interviews (N = 24) that discussed the pathology sector were analysed using inductive thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Four overarching themes were identified: implementation enablers, challenges, missed opportunities, and possible improvements. Participants believed that the decision to transition to primary HPV screening was highly acceptable and evidence-based, but faced challenges due to impacts on laboratory infrastructure, resources, staffing, and finances. These challenges were compounded by unfamiliarity with new information technology (IT) systems and the new National Cancer Screening Register ('Register') not being fully functional by the date of the program transition. The limited availability of self-collection and lack of standardised fields in pathology forms were identified as missed opportunities to improve equity in the Program. To improve implementation processes, participants suggested increased pathology sector involvement in planning was needed, along with more timely and transparent communication from the Government, and clearer clinical management guidelines.

CONCLUSION

The transition to primary HPV screening had a significant and multifaceted impact on the Australian pathology sector reflecting the magnitude and complexity of the Renewal. Strategies to support the pathology sector through effective change management, clear, timely, and transparent communication, as well as adequate funding sources will be critical for other countries planning to transition cervical screening programs.

Perceptions and implications for cervical screening and self-collection: A qualitative exploration of never and under-screened Queensland women

BACKGROUND

Over 70% of cervical cancers are detected in women not currently screening. Queensland Health wanted to better understand the drivers of screening to inform our planning and capitalise on self-collection as an option to reach under-screened women. In 2020 Queensland Health commissioned qualitative research to explore barriers and enablers to cervical screening with never-screened and under-screened women in Queensland (with under-screeners defined as having last screened more than 4 years ago and being more than 2 years overdue). Additionally, the research explored the acceptability of self-collection amongst this cohort.

METHODS

A mixed methods qualitative approach of online focus groups and in-depth interviews was employed. Online focus groups were conducted with under-screeners. In-depth telephone interviews were conducted with never-screeners due to the anticipated personal nature of their reasons for not screening.

RESULTS

A total of 51 Queensland women aged 30 to 50 years participated in the research.

CONCLUSIONS

Queensland women cited several negative experiences and aspects of the current program, as well as barriers in their social and personal lives that limited screening intention and behaviour. Barriers and enablers to cervical screening identified in this research have been classified into four categories: structural, knowledge and attitudinal, social, and personal. The research identified more factors associated with nonparticipation than participation. However, the research did uncover a range of potential enablers to encourage screening, some of which related to the program design. SO WHAT?: The concept of self-collection was broadly well accepted by research participants, particularly by never-screeners. Recommendations resulting from this research include communications, systems, and eligibility changes, particularly regarding the availability and benefits of self-collection.

Implementation of Australia's primary human papillomavirus (HPV) cervical screening program: The STakeholders Opinions of Renewal Implementation and Experiences Study

In this study, we aimed to document stakeholders' experiences of implementing Australia's renewed National Cervical Screening Program. In December 2017, the program changed from 2nd yearly cytology for 20-69 year olds to 5 yearly human papillomavirus (HPV) screening for women 25-74 years. We undertook semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders including government, program administrators, register staff, clinicians and health care workers, non-government organisations, professional bodies, and pathology laboratories from across Australia between Nov 2018 - Aug 2019. Response rate to emailed invitations was 49/85 (58%). We used Proctor et al's (2011) implementation outcomes framework to guide our questions and thematic analysis. We found that stakeholders were evenly divided over whether implementation was successful. There was strong support for change, but concern over aspects of the implementation. There was some frustration related to the delayed start, timeliness of communication and education, shortcomings in change management, lack of inclusion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in planning and implementation, failure to make self-collection widely available, and delays in the National Cancer Screening Register. Barriers centred around a perceived failure to appreciate the enormity of the change and register build, and consequent failure to resource, project manage and communicate effectively. Facilitators included the good will and dedication of stakeholders, strong evidence base for change and the support of jurisdictions during the delay. We documented substantial implementation challenges, offering learnings for other countries transitioning to HPV screening. Sufficient planning, significant and transparent engagement and communication with stakeholders, and change management are critical.

'I'm a bit of a champion for it actually': qualitative insights into practitioner-supported self-collection cervical screening among early adopting Victorian practitioners in Australia

BACKGROUND

Self-collection for cervical screening has been available in the Australian National Cervical Screening Program since 2017 and is now available to all people as an option for cervical screening through a practitioner-supported model. Documenting early adopting practitioner experiences with self-collection as a mechanism to engage people in cervical screening is crucial to informing its continuing roll-out and implementation in other health systems.

AIM

This study aimed to describe the experiences of practitioners in Victoria, Australia, who used human papillomavirus (HPV)-based self-collection cervical screening during the first 17 months of its availability.

METHODS

Interviews (n = 18) with practitioners from Victoria, who offered self-collection to their patients between December 2017 and April 2019, analysed using template analysis.

FINDINGS

Practitioners were overwhelmingly supportive of self-collection cervical screening because it was acceptable to their patients and addressed patients' barriers to screening. Practitioners perceived that knowledge and awareness of self-collection were variable among the primary care workforce, with some viewing self-collection to be inferior to clinician-collected screening. Practitioners championed self-collection at an individual level, with the extent of practice-level implementation depending on resourcing. Concerns regarding supporting the follow-up of self-collected HPV positive patients were noted. Other practical barriers included gaining timely, accurate screening histories from the National Cancer Screening Register to assess eligibility. Practitioners' role surrounded facilitating the choice between screening tests through a patient-centred approach.

Human Papillomavirus Vaccine

Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women worldwide with immense associated morbidity and mortality. Although most of the cervical cancer cases are caused by the human papillomavirus (HPV) and can effectively be prevented by HPV vaccination, vaccination unfortunately remains underused on a global scale with vast inequities in distribution. A vaccine as a tool to prevent cancer, cervical and others, is largely unprecedented. Then why do HPV vaccination rates globally remain so low? This article explores the burden of disease, development of the vaccine and its subsequent uptake, cost-effectiveness, and associated equity issues.

Cervical cancer screening and outcomes for women under 25 years of age in Belgium: a 10-year nationwide study

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to describe trends in cervical cancer screening and outcomes for women under 25 years of age in Belgium between 2010 and 2019 in response to a changed reimbursement policy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We used the databases of the National Health Insurance Institute (RIZIV/INAMI) and the Belgian Cancer Registry (BCR) for a nationwide description of cervical screening, subsequent diagnostic procedures and outcomes for women younger than 20 years and women aged 20-25 years between 2010 and 2019.

RESULTS

Over a 10-year period, the number of cytology screening tests and annual screening rates in women younger than 25 years have been reduced by 50%, but no increases in invasive cervical cancer or high-grade intraepithelial lesion diagnoses were observed. The major determinant of this decreased overscreening has been the limitation of reimbursement in 2013 to once every 3 years instead of once every 2 years. In women aged 25-29 years, there is no increase in invasive cervical cancer diagnoses after decreased screening of women younger than 25 years. To detect 29 invasive cervical cancers in women younger than 25 during the 10-year study period, a total of 5606 conizations were performed and 43 million EUR of Belgian health insurance budget was spent. Since the cost of hospitalization, sickness leave and negative psychological impact were not included in our estimation, these costs are underestimated.

CONCLUSION

Incidence of cervical cancer in women under 25 years remains low and screening is not effective in preventing cervical cancer, although there is clear evidence of potential reproductive harm and financial cost. We state that restricting reimbursement of cervical cancer screening before the age of 25 will improve guideline adherence and decrease healthcare expenditures without negatively impacting the health of the population.

Long-Term Projections of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Japan and Decomposition Analysis of Changes in Cancer Burden, 2020-2054: An Empirical Validation Approach

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to project new cancer cases/deaths forward to 2054, and decompose changes in cancer cases/deaths to assess the impact of demographic transitions on cancer burden.

METHODS

We collected data on cancer cases/deaths up to 2019, empirically validated the projection performance of multiple statistical models, and selected optimal models by applying time series cross-validation.

RESULTS

We showed an increasing number of new cancer cases but decreasing number of cancer deaths in both genders, with a large burden attributed to population aging. We observed the increasing incidence rates in most cancer sites but reducing rates in some infection-associated cancers, including stomach and liver cancers. Colorectal and lung cancers were projected to remain as leading cancer burdens of both incidence and mortality in Japan over 2020-2054, while prostate and female breast cancers would be the leading incidence burdens among men and women, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from decomposition analysis require more supportive interventions for reducing mortality and improving the quality of life of Japanese elders. We emphasize the important role of governments and policymakers in reforming policies for controlling cancer risk factors, including oncogenic infections. The rapid increase and continued presence of those cancer burdens associated with modifiable risk factors warrant greater efforts in cancer control programs, specifically in enhancing cancer screening and controlling cancer risk factors in Japan.

"So, if she wasn't aware of it, then how would everybody else out there be aware of it?"-Key Stakeholder Perspectives on the Initial Implementation of Self-Collection in Australia's Cervical Screening Program: A Qualitative Study

BACKGROUND

In December 2017, the Australian National Cervical Screening Program transitioned from 2-yearly cytology-based to 5-yearly human papillomavirus (HPV)-based cervical screening, including a vaginal self-collection option. Until July 2022, this option was restricted to under- or never-screened people aged 30 years and older who refused a speculum exam. We investigated the perspectives and experiences of stakeholders involved in, or affected by, the initial implementation of the restricted self-collection pathway.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 49 stakeholders as part of the STakeholder Opinions of Renewal Implementation and Experiences Study. All interviews were audio recorded and transcribed. Data were thematically analysed and coded to the Conceptual Framework for Implementation Outcomes.

RESULTS

Stakeholders viewed the introduction of self-collection as an exciting opportunity to provide under-screened people with an alternative to a speculum examination. Adoption in clinical practice, however, was impacted by a lack of clear communication and promotion to providers, and the limited number of laboratories accredited to process self-collected samples. Primary care providers tasked with communicating and offering self-collection described confusion about the availability, participant eligibility, pathology processes, and clinical management processes for self-collection. Regulatory delay in developing an agreed protocol to approve laboratory processing of self-collected swabs, and consequently initially having one laboratory nationally accredited to process samples, led to missed opportunities and misinformation regarding the pathway's availability.

CONCLUSIONS

Whilst the introduction of self-collection was welcomed, clear communication from Government regarding setbacks in implementation and how to overcome these in practice were needed. As Australia moves to a policy of providing everyone eligible for screening the choice of self-collection, wider promotion to providers and eligible people, clarity around pathology processes and the scaling up of test availability, as well as timely education and communication of clinical management practice guidelines, are needed to ensure smoother program delivery in the future. Other countries implementing self-collection policies can learn from the implementation challenges faced by Australia.

The Implementation of a Primary HPV Self-Testing Cervical Screening Program in Malaysia through Program ROSE-Lessons Learnt and Moving Forward

Program ROSE (removing obstacles to cervical screening) is a primary HPV-based cervical screening program that incorporates self-sampling and digital technology, ensuring that women are linked to care. It was developed based on the principles of design thinking in the context of Malaysia. The program illustrates the importance of collaborative partnerships and addressing the multi-faceted barriers from policy changes, and infrastructure readiness to the implementation of a radically new cervical screening program in communities. The paradigm shift in cervical cancer requires a monumental and concerted effort in educating both the healthcare providers and the general public. In this short review, we highlight how Pilot Project ROSE incorporated evidence-based tools that rapidly scaled up to Program ROSE. These ideas and solutions can be adapted and adopted by other countries. Notwithstanding the impact of COVID-19, it is incumbent on countries to pave the road towards the elimination of cervical cancer with pre-existing footpaths.

Co-designed, culturally tailored cervical screening education with migrant and refugee women in Australia: a feasibility study

Background

Participation of culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) women from migrant and refugee backgrounds in cervical screening is crucial to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem within the next 20 years. However, CALD women report low participation in cervical screening. Barriers to participation can be addressed with culturally tailored, community-based programs. There is a need for research to explore the process, feasibility, acceptability and barriers to cultural tailoring in the delivery and evaluation of cervical screening health education.

Methods

CALD community health workers took part in a 2 day training program then co-designed, culturally tailored and co-facilitated cervical screening health promotion forums within their communities. Forums were delivered to a total of seven groups, involving 12 sessions and 71 CALD women. The forums were evaluated for feasibility, acceptability, implementation and effectiveness using a survey, interviews and observations. Data were collected from CALD women, facilitators and researchers.

Results

The co-design and co-delivery of cervical screening health promotion forums was time and resource intensive however allowed for deeper cultural tailoring resulting in engagement with ‘hard to reach’ CALD women, improved health literacy and intention to screen. Flexibility in the intervention implementation was crucial to ensure forums were responsive to community interests and needs. Online delivery of the forums in response to the COVID-19 pandemic was acceptable to most groups.

Conclusions

Co-designed, culturally tailored cervical screening health promotion forums are feasible and acceptable to CALD women, in both face-to-face and online formats. Adjustments to the intervention protocol were recommended to improve future implementation.

Trends in cervical cancer incidence and mortality of young and middle adults in Japan

In most high‐resource countries with organized screening programs, the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer is decreasing. Recent statistics have also revealed a reduction in invasive cervical cancer incidence as a result of national vaccination programs. Paradoxically, cervical cancer incidence has increased in Japan, particularly amongst women of reproductive age. This study aimed to examine the trends in cervical cancer incidence and mortality for young and middle adult women in Japan, by analyzing trends in 10‐year interval age‐groups. Cervical cancer incidence for young and middle adult women (ages 20‐59 years) was obtained from high‐quality population‐based cancer registries in three prefectures from 1985 to 2015. National cancer mortality data were obtained from published vital statistics from 1985 to 2019. Trends in crude and age‐standardized rates (ASR) were analyzed using Joinpoint regression. The cervical cancer incidence trend in 20‐59‐year‐old women combined significantly increased over the observation period. Both crude and ASR increased from 1985 to 2015 with an annual percent change (APC) of +1.6% (95% confidence interval, 1.1, 2.1) and +1.7% (1.2, 2.3), respectively. Similar increases were seen in ages 20‐29, 30‐39, and 40‐49 years with higher APCs especially in 20s and 30s. Both crude and ASR mortality significantly increased after the early 1990s in ages 20‐59 years combined. Based on the recognition that current cervical cancer control strategies in Japan have not been effective in reducing the cervical cancer burden in young and middle adults, promotion of screening and vaccination should be urgently strengthened.

The experience of under-screened and never-screened participants using clinician-supported self-collection cervical screening within the Australian National Cervical Screening Program

Background:

Australia has had significant successes in the prevention of cervical cancer. However, there is considerable scope for improving screening participation. In December 2017, Australia shifted from cytology to a human papillomavirus–based screening program as part of the renewed National Cervical Screening Program. This provided the opportunity to introduce a clinician-supported self-collection cervical screening pathway, which allows screening participants aged 30 years or more and who are under-screened or never-screened to screen via a self-collected human papillomavirus test.

Objective:

This study aimed to explore screening participant experiences of a clinician-supported self-collection cervical screening pathway.

Methods:

Interviews (n = 45) were conducted with participants who had used the clinician-supported self-collection cervical screening pathway in the Australian National Cervical Screening Program between December 2017 and April 2019. Interviews were analyzed using template analysis.

Results:

Under-screened and never-screened participants reported a variety of interrelated barriers to cervical screening due to the nature of the test. For these participants, self-collection was a preferable way to perform screening as it overcame various barriers, was easy to use and promoted a sense of empowerment. Participants reported that the role of their practitioner was influential in their decision to undertake cervical screening, and that the support and information provided was a key factor in their experiences of the self-collection pathway.

Conclusion:

Findings support the use of a clinician-supported model of care, as an alternative screening modality in Australia’s National Cervical Screening Program. As more countries consider the move from a cytology to human papillomavirus–based cervical screening program, this model may assist in greater engagement of under-screened participants.

Recent global burden of cervical cancer incidence and mortality, predictors, and temporal trends

BACKGROUNDS

This study investigated the global incidence and mortality of cervical cancer, its predictors, the temporal trend by country and age.

METHODS

Data from Global Cancer Observatory 2020 for 185 countries was used to estimate current cervical cancer incidence and mortality and their associations with predictors by linear regression analysis. Estimated age-standardized rates (ASR) and average annual percentage changes (AAPC) from cancer registries for up to 53 countries through 2018 were used for trend analysis by joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

Wide variations in cervical cancer were observed globally with the highest rates of incidence and mortality in East Africa (ASR, 40.1 and 28.6). The incidence and mortality of cervical cancer were positively associated with human papillomavirus, human immunodeficiency virus infection and negatively associated with cervical cancer screening coverage. In the most recent 5 years, reduction of incidence and mortality was found from 22 (AAPC, -11.2 to -0.5) and 27 countries (-21.5 to -0.3). Increase of incidence and mortality was found from 13 (1.7 to 6.5) and 5 (0.3 to 1.8) countries. Comparing to women aged above 50 years, increasing incidence were additionally found among women under age 50 years from 9 countries (ranging from 0.2 in Denmark to 3.8 in Sweden).

CONCLUSIONS

While most countries with cancer registry have shown reduction in cervical cancer incidence and mortality, the increasing incidence among younger women from some developed countries warrants further implementation of effective cancer screening.

Eliminating Cervical Cancer: Progress and Challenges for High-income Countries

In 2020, the World Health Organization launched a major initiative to eliminate cervical cancer globally. The initiative is built around the three key pillars of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, cervical screening and treatment, with associated intervention targets for the year 2030. The '90-70-90' targets specify that 90% of adolescent girls receive prophylactic HPV vaccination, 70% of adult women receive a minimum twice-in-a-lifetime cervical HPV test and 90% receive appropriate treatment for preinvasive or invasive disease. Modelling has shown that if these targets are met, the elimination of cervical cancer, defined as fewer than four cases per 100 000 women per annum, will be achieved within a century. Many high-income countries are well positioned to eliminate cervical cancer within the coming decades, but few have achieved '90-70-90' and many challenges must still be addressed to deliver these critical interventions effectively. This review considers the current status of cervical cancer control in relation to each of the three elimination pillars in high-income countries and discusses some of the developments that will assist countries in reaching these ambitious targets by 2030.

Modeling Cervical Cancer Screening Strategies With Varying Levels of Human Papillomavirus Vaccination

IMPORTANCE

Cervical cancer screening is a lifesaving intervention, with an array of approaches, including liquid-based cytology (LBC), molecular testing for human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, and combinations via parallel cotesting or sequential triage. Maximizing screening efficacy while minimizing overtreatment is vital, especially when considering how the HPV vaccine will affect the interpretation of results.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the likely outcomes of different screening modalities and to model how the increasing uptake of the HPV vaccine could affect the interpretation of screening results.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This decision analytic model established a simple Markov model to compare the outcomes of different cervical cancer screening modalities on a simulated population of women (aged ≥25 years), considering different levels of HPV vaccination.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The number of cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 2 and 3 detected and missed, the number of false positives, and the number of tests required to achieve a given level of accuracy. Positive and negative predictive values of different modalities were simulated under varying levels of HPV vaccination and therefore HPV prevalence.

RESULTS

In a simulated population of 1000 women aged 25 years and older with an HPV prevalence of 2%, HPV-based modalities outperformed LBC-based approaches, detecting 19% more true positives (HPV test sensitivity, 89.9% [95% CI, 88.6%-91.1%]; LBC test sensitivity, 75.5% [95% CI, 66.6%-82.7%]). While cotesting markedly reduced missed cases, detecting 29% more true positives than LBC alone (19.5 [95% CI, 19.3-19.7] per 1000 women screened vs 15.1 [95% CI, 13.3-16.5] per 1000 women screened), it unacceptably increased excess colposcopy referral by 94% (184.4 [95% CI, 181.8-188.0] false positives per 1000 women screened vs 95.1 [95% CI, 93.1-97.0] false positives per 1000 women screened). By contrast, triage testing with reflex screening substantially reduced false positives by a factor of approximately 10 (eg, HPV with LBC triage, 9.6 [95% CI, 9.3-10.0] per 1000 women screened). Over a lifetime of screening, reflex approaches with appropriate test intervals maximized therapeutic efficacy; as HPV vaccination rates increased, HPV-based screening approaches resulted in fewer unnecessary colposcopies than LBC approaches (HPV testing, 80% vaccine coverage: 44.1 [95% CI, 40-45.9] excess colposcopies; LBC testing, 80% vaccine coverage: 96.9 [95% CI, 96.8-97.0] excess colposcopies).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this decision analytic model, the effectiveness of cervical cancer screening was dependent on the prevalence of cervical dysplasia and/or HPV infection or vaccination in a population as well as the sensitivity and specificity of various modalities. Although screening is lifesaving, overtesting or modalities inappropriate to the target population may cause significant harm, including overtreatment.

No longer recommended for cervical screening: How women aged 18-24 feel about the renewed National Cervical Screening Program

BACKGROUND

Since December 2017, the Australian National Cervical Screening Program no longer recommends screening for women under 25 years of age.

AIM

To explore the attitudes of women under 25 years toward the changes.

METHODS

In December 2019, women aged 18-24, residing in Australia, were recruited via the social media platform Instagram and Facebook. Descriptive analysis, t-tests, χ² tests and multivariable regressions were used to analyse the data.

RESULTS

Five hundred and twelve women completed a cross-sectional web-based survey. Women who were older (22-24: 3.1 vs 18-21: 2.8, P < 0.001), sexually active (3.1 vs 2.7, P = 0.003), vaccinated against human papillomavirus (mean = 3.2 vs 2.7, P = 0.005) or who had screened previously (mean = 3.5 vs 2.8, P < 0.001) had significantly greater knowledge about the current cervical screening practices. Older women (odds ratio (OR) = 0.85, 95% CI 0.80-0.95) or those who had screened previously (OR = 0.51, 95% CI 0.31-0.83) were less positive about the delayed start age of screening and five-yearly screening (OR = 0.54, 95% CI 0.35-0.85). A significant association was determined between being sexually active (χ² (4) = 32.71, P < 0.001) and women who had screened previously (χ² (4) = 34.43, P < 0.001), with a greater intention to screen in the future. Regarding health information, 64.6% of women had never heard of the 'National Cervical Screening Program' website and 38.9% of the sample (n = 199/512) reported they had 'rarely' noticed any health information regarding cervical screening in the past 12 months.

CONCLUSION

Further work is required to rectify women's knowledge of cervical screening to ensure women under 25 are aware of the screening guidelines and reduce the potential for over-testing and overtreatment in this age group.

Updated Trends in Cancer in Japan: Incidence in 1985-2015 and Mortality in 1958-2018-A Sign of Decrease in Cancer Incidence

Background

Unlike many North American and European countries, Japan has observed a continuous increase in cancer incidence over the last few decades. We examined the most recent trends in population-based cancer incidence and mortality in Japan.

Methods

National cancer mortality data between 1958 and 2018 were obtained from published vital statistics. Cancer incidence data between 1985 and 2015 were obtained from high-quality population-based cancer registries maintained by three prefectures (Yamagata, Fukui, and Nagasaki). Trends in age-standardized rates (ASR) were examined using Joinpoint regression analysis.

Results

For males, all-cancer incidence increased between 1985 and 1996 (annual percent change [APC] +1.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.7–1.5%), increased again in 2000–2010 (+1.3%; 95% CI, 0.9–1.8%), and then decreased until 2015 (−1.4%; 95% CI, −2.5 to −0.3%). For females, all-cancer incidence increased until 2010 (+0.8%; 95% CI, 0.6–0.9% in 1985–2004 and +2.4%; 95% CI, 1.3–3.4% in 2004–2010), and stabilized thereafter until 2015. The post-2000 increase was mainly attributable to prostate in males and breast in females, which slowed or levelled during the first decade of the 2000s. After a sustained increase, all-cancer mortality for males decreased in 1996–2013 (−1.6%; 95% CI, −1.6 to −1.5%) and accelerated thereafter until 2018 (−2.5%; 95% CI, −2.9 to −2.0%). All-cancer mortality for females decreased intermittently throughout the observation period, with the most recent APC of −1.0% (95% CI, −1.1 to −0.9%) in 2003–2018. The recent decreases in mortality in both sexes, and in incidence in males, were mainly attributable to stomach, liver, and male lung cancers.

Conclusion

The ASR of all-cancer incidence began decreasing significantly in males and levelled off in females in 2010.

Cervical Screening Practices and Outcomes for Young Women in Response to Changed Guidelines in Calgary, Canada, 2007-2016

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to describe temporal trends in screening and outcomes for women, after changes in guidelines in Alberta, Canada, that raised starting age to 21 years, then to 25 years of age, and reduced frequency to 3 yearly.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Calgary Laboratory Information System data were used to examine screening rates, follow-up procedures, and cancer among women 10-29 years from 2007 to 2016 in the whole population of Calgary. Interrupted time-series analyses were used to assess changes in screening and subsequent diagnostic procedures over the 10-year period.

RESULTS

Annual screening rates dropped by approximately 10% at all ages older than 15 years after the 2009 Alberta cervical cancer screening guidelines, followed by a steady decrease. Further change continued subsequent to minimal apparent effect of the 2013 Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care guidelines. The rates of abnormal test results decreased in concert with decreased screening. No increases in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 1, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2/3, or invasive cervical cancer rates were observed after reduced testing.

CONCLUSIONS

The largest decrease in screening and follow-up procedures occurred in the period immediately after implementation of 2009 Alberta screening guidelines. The number of consequent procedures also decreased in proportion to decreased screening, but there was no increase in cancer rates. Starting screening at the age of 25 years and reducing intervals seem to be safe.

Changes in cancer incidence and mortality in Australia over the period 1996-2015

OBJECTIVE

A previous Australian study compared the observed numbers of cancer cases and deaths in 2007 with the expected numbers based on 1987 rates. This study examines the impact of cancer rate changes over the 20-year period 1996-2015, for people aged under 75 years.

RESULTS

The overall age-standardised cancer incidence rate increased from 350.7 in 1995 to 364.4 per 100,000 in 2015. Over the period 1996-2015, there were 29,226 (2.0%) more cases (males: 5940, 0.7%; females: 23,286, 3.7%) than expected numbers based on 1995 rates. Smaller numbers of cases were observed compared to those expected for cancers of the lung for males and colorectum, and cancers with unknown primary. Larger numbers of cases were observed compared to those expected for cancers of the prostate, thyroid and female breast. The overall age-standardised cancer mortality rate decreased from 125.6 in 1995 to 84.3 per 100,000 in 2015. During 1996 to 2015 there were 106,903 (- 20.6%) fewer cancer deaths (males: - 69,007, - 22.6%; females: - 37,896, - 17.9%) than expected based on the 1995 mortality rates. Smaller numbers of deaths were observed compared to those expected for cancers of the lung, colorectum and female breast, and more cancer deaths were observed for liver cancer.

Spatial and temporal variations in cervical cancer screening participation among indigenous and non-indigenous women, Queensland, Australia, 2008-2017

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer incidence and mortality have declined in Australia since the implementation of a national cervical screening program in 1991, however, disparities in both measures between Indigenous and non-Indigenous women remain. We describe spatial and temporal changes in Pap test participation rates by Indigenous status for Queensland (Australia). Analyses were done in the context of renewed screening program in December 2017.

METHODS

Population-based study 2,132,925 Queensland female residents, aged 20-69 years who underwent cervical screening from 2008 to December 2017; 47,136 were identified as Indigenous through linkage to hospital records. Bayesian spatial models were used to generate smoothed estimates of participation across 528 small areas during 2008-2012 and 2013-2017 compared to the overall state average (2008-2017). Results are presented as thematic maps and graphs showing the associated uncertainty of the estimates.

RESULTS

Overall screening participation decreased over time for both Indigenous and non-Indigenous women. Strong spatial patterns were evident in five-year participation for both groups. Indigenous women had significantly lower participation than the Queensland average for ≥ 88 % of areas during both reporting periods whereas corresponding estimates were lower than average for <30 % of areas among non-Indigenous women. Disparities by Indigenous status persisted over time and remained across broader geographical groups of accessibility and area disadvantage.

CONCLUSIONS

Cervical cancer burden in Australia can only be reduced through concentrated efforts on identifying and addressing key drivers of the continuing disparities in screening participation. Achieving equitable screening participation for all women especially Indigenous women requires community engagement and localised interventions.

Prognostic value of changes in neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) for patients with cervical cancer undergoing definitive chemoradiotherapy (dCRT)

BACKGROUND

Peripheral NLR, PLR, and LMR have prognostic value in various malignancies as they are surrogates for inflammation. Recent studies have identified NLR, PLR, and LMR correlate with patient outcomes in cervical cancer patients however there remains uncertainty regarding the optimal time point for assessing these markers.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed cervical cancer patients underoing definitive chemoradiation therapy (dCRT). NLR, PLR, and LMR values were identified before, during, and after dCRT and both relative and absolute changes in these values were calculated and compared with patient outcmoes.

RESULTS

Ninety-nine patients who met the includsion criteria were identified. NLR values before, during, and after dCRT correlated with progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). In addition, increasing NLR after treatment was associated with worse PFS and OS. LMR before and after treatment had a positive correlation with PFS however increasing LMR during dCRT was found to have a negative correlation with PFS and OS.

CONCLUSIONS

NLR serves as a prognostic indicator irrespective of timing with response to dCRT. While higher LMR before treatment was a positive prognostic indicator, increasing LMR was found to negatively correlate with PFS and OS.

National Cervical Screening Program renewal in Australia: survey of clinician views and attitudes

From 1 December 2017, the National Cervical Screening Program was renewed in Australia, with updated national cervical screening guidelines released. This study was performed to determine clinicians’ familiarity with the updated guidelines and explore their views and attitudes towards the renewed program. Clinicians providing cervical screening in New South Wales, Australia, were invited to complete an online survey in 2018. Of the 241 clinicians who responded, 91.5% supported the change to 5-yearly human papillomavirus screening from the age of 25 years. However, nearly 13% indicated they did not know where to access the renewed guidelines and 37% had never or rarely accessed them. Open-ended responses highlighted clinicians’ concerns about missed cancers and missed opportunities for health checks. Those raising these concerns accessed the guidelines less frequently. The findings highlight important areas for additional education and support for clinicians in translating guidelines into practice to ensure successful delivery of the renewed program.

Pathways to a cancer-free future: A protocol for modelled evaluations to maximize the future impact of interventions on cervical cancer in Australia

OBJECTIVE

Australia's HPV vaccination and HPV-based cervical screening programs are changing the landscape in cervical cancer prevention. We aim to identify areas which can make the biggest further impact on cervical cancer burden. This protocol describes the first stage of a program of work called Pathways-Cervix that aims to generate evidence from modelled evaluations of interventions across the cervical cancer spectrum.

METHODS

Based on evidence from literature reviews and guidance from a multi-disciplinary Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC), the most relevant evaluations for prevention, diagnosis and treatment were identified.

RESULTS

Priority evaluations agreed by the SAC included: increasing/decreasing and retaining vaccination uptake at the current level; vaccinating older women; increasing screening participation; methods for triaging HPV-positive women; improving the diagnosis of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and cancer; treating cervical abnormalities and cancer; and vaccinating women treated for CIN2/3 to prevent recurrence. Evaluations will be performed using a simulation model, Policy1-Cervix previously used to perform policy evaluations in Australia. Exploratory modelling of interventions using idealised scenarios will initially be conducted in single birth cohorts. If these have a significant impact on findings then evaluations with more realistic assumptions will be conducted. Promising strategies will be investigated further by multi-cohort simulations predicting health outcomes, resource use and cost outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Pathways-Cervix will assess the relative benefits of strategies and treatment options in a systematic and health economic framework, producing a list of 'best buys' for future decision-making in cervical cancer control.

Aboriginal women have a higher risk of cervical abnormalities at screening; South Australia, 1993-2016

OBJECTIVE

Cervical cancer mortality has halved in Australia since the national cervical screening program began in 1991, but elevated mortality rates persist for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women (referred to as Aboriginal women in this report). We investigated differences by Aboriginal status in abnormality rates predicted by cervical cytology and confirmed by histological diagnoses among screened women.

METHODS

Using record linkage between cervical screening registry and public hospital records in South Australia, we obtained Aboriginal status of women aged 20-69 for 1993-2016 (this was not recorded by the registry). Differences in cytological abnormalities were investigated by Aboriginal status, using relative risk ratios from mixed effect multinomial logistic regression modelling. Odds ratios were calculated for histological high grade results for Aboriginal compared with non-Aboriginal women.

RESULTS

Of 1,676,141 linkable cytology tests, 5.8% were abnormal. Abnormal results were more common for women who were younger, never married, and living in a major city or socioeconomically disadvantaged area. After adjusting for these factors and numbers of screening episodes, the relative risk of a low grade cytological abnormality compared with a normal test was 14% (95% confidence interval 5-24%) higher, and the relative risk of a high grade cytological abnormality was 61% (95% confidence interval 44-79%) higher, for Aboriginal women. The adjusted odds ratio of a histological high grade was 76% (95% confidence interval 46-113%) higher.

CONCLUSIONS

Ensuring that screen-detected abnormalities are followed up in a timely way by culturally acceptable services is important for reducing differences in cervical cancer rates between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal women.

Comorbidity and cervical cancer survival of Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australian women: A semi-national registry-based cohort study (2003-2012)

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the impact of comorbidity on cervical cancer survival in Australian women, including whether Indigenous women's higher prevalence of comorbidity contributes to their lower survival compared to non-Indigenous women.

METHODS

Data for cervical cancers diagnosed in 2003-2012 were extracted from six Australian state-based cancer registries and linked to hospital inpatient records to identify comorbidity diagnoses. Five-year cause-specific and all-cause survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Flexible parametric models were used to estimate excess cause-specific mortality by Charlson comorbidity index score (0,1,2+), for Indigenous women compared to non-Indigenous women.

RESULTS

Of 4,467 women, Indigenous women (4.4%) compared to non-Indigenous women had more comorbidity at diagnosis (score ≥1: 24.2% vs. 10.0%) and lower five-year cause-specific survival (60.2% vs. 76.6%). Comorbidity was associated with increased cervical cancer mortality for non-Indigenous women, but there was no evidence of such a relationship for Indigenous women. There was an 18% reduction in the Indigenous: non-Indigenous hazard ratio (excess mortality) when comorbidity was included in the model, yet this reduction was not statistically significant. The excess mortality for Indigenous women was only evident among those without comorbidity (Indigenous: non-Indigenous HR 2.5, 95%CI 1.9-3.4), indicating that factors other than those measured in this study are contributing to the differential. In a subgroup of New South Wales women, comorbidity was associated with advanced-stage cancer, which in turn was associated with elevated cervical cancer mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Survival was lowest for women with comorbidity. However, there wasn't a clear comorbidity-survival gradient for Indigenous women. Further investigation of potential drivers of the cervical cancer survival differentials is warranted.

IMPACT

The results highlight the need for cancer care guidelines and multidisciplinary care that can meet the needs of complex patients. Also, primary and acute care services may need to pay more attention to Indigenous Australian women who may not obviously need it (i.e. those without comorbidity).

How will transitioning from cytology to HPV testing change the balance between the benefits and harms of cervical cancer screening? Estimates of the impact on cervical cancer, treatment rates and adverse obstetric outcomes in Australia, a high vaccination coverage country

Primary HPV screening enables earlier diagnosis of cervical lesions compared to cytology, however, its effect on the risk of treatment and adverse obstetric outcomes has not been extensively investigated. We estimated the cumulative lifetime risk (CLR) of cervical cancer and excisional treatment, and change in adverse obstetric outcomes in HPV unvaccinated women and cohorts offered vaccination (>70% coverage in 12-13 years) for the Australian cervical screening program. Two-yearly cytology screening (ages 18-69 years) was compared to 5-yearly primary HPV screening with partial genotyping for HPV16/18 (ages 25-74 years). A dynamic model of HPV transmission, vaccination, cervical screening and treatment for precancerous lesions was coupled with an individual-based simulation of obstetric complications. For cytology screening, the CLR of cervical cancer diagnosis, death and treatment was estimated to be 0.649%, 0.198% and 13.4% without vaccination and 0.182%, 0.056% and 6.8%, in vaccinated women, respectively. For HPV screening, relative reductions of 33% and 22% in cancer risk for unvaccinated and vaccinated women are predicted, respectively, compared to cytology. Without the implementation of vaccination, a 4% increase in treatment risk for HPV versus cytology screening would have been expected, implying a possible increase in pre-term delivery (PTD) and low birth weight (LBW) events of 19 to 35 and 14 to 37, respectively, per 100,000 unvaccinated women. However, in vaccinated women, treatment risk will decrease by 13%, potentially leading to 4 to 41 fewer PTD events and from 2 more to 52 fewer LBW events per 100,000 vaccinated women. In unvaccinated women in cohorts offered vaccination as 12-13 year olds, no change to lifetime treatment risk is expected with HPV screening. In unvaccinated women in cohorts offered vaccination as 12-13 year olds, no change to lifetime treatment risk is expected with HPV screening. HPV screening starting at age 25 in populations with high vaccination coverage, is therefore expected to both improve the benefits (further decrease risk of cervical cancer) and reduce the harms (reduce treatments and possible obstetric complications) associated with cervical cancer screening.

Utility of gene methylation analysis, cytological examination, and HPV-16/18 genotyping in triage of high-risk human papilloma virus-positive women

In 2015, the American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology and the Society of Gynecologic Oncology issued interim guidance for the use of a human papillomavirus (HPV) test for primary screening, suggesting triage of women positive for high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) by HPV-16/18 genotyping and cytology for women positive for non-16/18 hrHPV. The design of the present study was based on this interim guidance and analysis of the methylation status of specific candidate genes, which has been proposed as a tool to reduce unnecessary referral following primary HPV screening for cervical cancer. We performed a hospital-based case-control study including 312 hrHPV-positive women. hrHPV genotyping was performed by nested multiplex PCR assay with type-specific primers.Residual cervical cells from liquid-based cytology were used for extraction of genomic DNA for assessment of the methylation status of PAX1, ZNF582, SOX1, and NKX6-1 and HPV genotyping. Combined with HPV-16/18 genotyping, both a dual methylation test for PAX1/ZNF582 and testing for ZNF582 methylation demonstrated 100% association of methylation with pathology results, indicating carcinoma in situ or squamous cell carcinoma. The sensitivity and specificity of the dual methylation test for PAX1/ZNF582 as a reflex test for identification of CIN3+ lesions were 78.85% and 73.55% (odds ratio = 10.37, 95% confidence interval = 4.76-22.58), respectively. This strategy could reduce the number of patients referred for colposcopic examination by 31.3% compared with cytology, and thus provide a feasible follow-up solution in regions where colposcopy is not readily available. This strategy could also prevent unnecessary anxiety in women with hrHPV infection.

Nationwide cervical cancer screening in Korea: data from the National Health Insurance Service Cancer Screening Program and National Cancer Screening Program, 2009-2014

OBJECTIVE

The rates of participation in the Korean nationwide cervical cancer screening program and the rates of abnormal test results were determined.

METHODS

The database of the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) was used during the study period (2009-2014).

RESULTS

The participation rate increased from 41.10% in 2009 to 51.52% in 2014 (annual percentage change, 4.126%; 95% confidence interval [CI]=2.253-6.034). During the study period, women ≥70 years of age had the lowest rate of participation (range, 21.7%-31.9%) and those 30-39 years of age the second-lowest (27.7%-44.9%). The participation rates of National Health Insurance beneficiaries (range, 48.6%-52.5%) were higher than those of Medical Aid Program (MAP) recipients (29.6%-33.2%). The rates of abnormal results were 0.65% in 2009 and 0.52% in 2014, with a decreasing tendency in all age groups except the youngest (30-39 years). Every year the abnormal result rates tended to decrease with age, from the age groups of 30-39 years to 60-69 years but increased in women ≥70 years of age. The ratio of patients with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance compared with those with squamous intraepithelial lesions increased from 2.71 in 2009 to 4.91 in 2014.

CONCLUSION

Differences related to age and occurring over time were found in the rates of participation and abnormal results. Further efforts are needed to encourage participation in cervical cancer screening, especially for MAP recipients, elderly women and women 30-39 years of age. Quality control measures for cervical cancer screening programs should be enforced consistently.

Projected impact of HPV vaccination and primary HPV screening on cervical adenocarcinoma: Example from Australia

Cytology-based cervical screening appears to have had a limited effect on the incidence of adenocarcinoma, however HPV vaccination and HPV-based screening will likely play a role in reducing future burden. Using Australia as an example, we estimated the future burden (2015-2040) of adenocarcinoma in the absence of other interventions; and the impact of HPV vaccination (introduced 2007) and HPV-based screening (commencing 2017). Future burden was estimated considering underlying trends in adenocarcinoma, using national data (1982-2010). The relative reduction in adenocarcinoma due to HPV vaccination and HPV-based screening was derived from observed clinical data. Adenocarcinoma incidence rates have been increasing since the early-mid 2000s (average annual increases from 3.0%(25-49 years) -8.1%(20-24 years)). If these trends continue, rates would increase from 1.4 to 2.4/100,000 in <50 years and from 2.2 to 4.4/100,000 in 50+ years by 2040. Taking into account coverage, HPV vaccination will reduce 2040 incidence by 36-39%, mainly in women <50 years (61% reduction). Taking into account uncertainties in trends and screening effectiveness, HPV-based screening will reduce incidence by an additional 19-43%, mainly in women 50+ years (additional 30-68% reduction). Together, these interventions will reduce incidence by 55-81%.