Alkaline Phosphatase-To-Albumin Ratio as a Prognostic Indicator in Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma after Curative Resection

The Nomogram predicting the overall survival of patients with pancreatic cancer treated with radiotherapy: a study based on the SEER database and a Chinese cohort

Objective

Patients with pancreatic cancer (PC) have a poor prognosis. Radiotherapy (RT) is a standard palliative treatment in clinical practice, and there is no effective clinical prediction model to predict the prognosis of PC patients receiving radiotherapy. This study aimed to analyze PC's clinical characteristics, find the factors affecting PC patients' prognosis, and construct a visual Nomogram to predict overall survival (OS).

Methods

SEER*Stat software was used to collect clinical data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database of 3570 patients treated with RT. At the same time, the relevant clinical data of 115 patients were collected from the Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University. The SEER database data were randomly divided into the training and internal validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio, with all patients at The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University as the external validation cohort. The lasso regression was used to screen the relevant variables. All non-zero variables were included in the multivariate analysis. Multivariate Cox proportional risk regression analysis was used to determine the independent prognostic factors. The Kaplan-Meier(K-M) method was used to plot the survival curves for different treatments (surgery, RT, chemotherapy, and combination therapy) and calculate the median OS. The Nomogram was constructed to predict the survival rates at 1, 3, and 5 years, and the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) were plotted with the calculated curves. Calculate the area under the curve (AUC), the Bootstrap method was used to plot the calibration curve, and the clinical efficacy of the prediction model was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

The median OS was 25.0, 18.0, 11.0, and 4.0 months in the surgery combined with chemoradiotherapy (SCRT), surgery combined with radiotherapy, chemoradiotherapy (CRT), and RT alone cohorts, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age, N stage, M stage, chemotherapy, surgery, lymph node surgery, and Grade were independent prognostic factors for patients. Nomogram models were constructed to predict patients' OS. 1-, 3-, and 5-year Time-dependent ROC curves were plotted, and AUC values were calculated. The results suggested that the AUCs were 0.77, 0.79, and 0.79 for the training cohort, 0.79, 0.82, and 0.81 for the internal validation cohort, and 0.73, 0.93, and 0.88 for the external validation cohort. The calibration curves Show that the model prediction probability is in high agreement with the actual observation probability, and the DCA curve shows a high net return.

Conclusion

SCRT significantly improves the OS of PC patients. We developed and validated a Nomogram to predict the OS of PC patients receiving RT.

Association between alkaline phosphatase/albumin ratio and the prognosis in patients with chronic kidney disease stages 1-4: results from a C-STRIDE prospective cohort study

Background

The alkaline phosphatase-to-albumin ratio (APAR) has been demonstrated to be a promising non-invasive biomarker for predicting prognosis in certain diseases. However, the relationship between APAR and prognosis in non-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients remains unclear. This study aims to identify the association between APAR and prognosis among CKD stages 1-4 in China.

Methods

Patients with CKD stages 1-4 were consecutively recruited from 39 clinical centers in China from 2011 to 2016. New occurrences of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events, and all-cause deaths were the outcome events of this study. Subdistribution hazard competing risk and Cox proportional hazards regression models were adopted.

Results

A total of 2,180 participants with baseline APAR values were included in the analysis. In the primary adjusted analyses, higher APAR level [per 1-standard deviation (SD) increase in natural logarithm transformed (ln-transformed) APAR] was associated with 33.5% higher risk for all-cause deaths [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.335, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.068-1.670]. In addition, there was evidence for effect modification of the association between APAR and ESKD by baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (P interaction < 0.001). A higher APAR level (per 1-SD increase in ln-transformed APAR) was associated with a greater risk of ESKD among participants with eGFR ≥ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 (adjusted SHR 1.880, 95% CI 1.260-2.810) but not in eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2.

Conclusion

Higher APAR levels in patients with CKD stages 1-4 seemed to be associated with an increased risk of all-cause death. Thus, APAR appears to be used in risk assessment for all-cause death among patients with CKD stages 1-4.

Subcutaneous Injection of Bee Venom in Wistar Rats: effects on blood cells and biochemical parameters

Objectives

Bee venom (BV) therapy is performed by a bee sting or subcutaneous injection of BV. However, there is not much information on the effect of BV on blood parameters after entering the body. This project aimed to assess the side effects of subcutaneous BV injections in healthy rats by measuring the hematological and biochemical parameters.

Methods

Various amounts of BV, including 100, 200, and 500 (µg/day), were subcutaneously injected into rats for 30 days. The results showed that BV affected the metabolism of the liver, kidney, and glands.

Results

An increase in blood sugar and a decrease in other biochemical parameters, including cholesterol, triglyceride, urea, creatinine AST, ALT, ALP, and phosphorous, were observed. Results also showed increased counts of white blood cells, neutrophils (%), and platelets and decreased levels of red cells, hemoglobin, and hematocrit.

Conclusion

This study demonstrates that BV therapy in medical clinics requires routine care and testing to prevent eventual metabolic and anemia side effects.

Preoperative Alkaline Phosphatase-to-Cholesterol Ratio as a Predictor of Overall Survival in Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma Patients Undergoing Radical Pancreaticoduodenectomy

Background

The value of alkaline phosphatase and cholesterol for predicting overall survival (OS) in cancer patients has been previously studied. However, the predictive value of these variables in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) was limited. Hence, we conducted this study to investigate the prognostic value of the alkaline phosphatase-to-cholesterol ratio (ACR) in patients undergoing radical pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) for PDAC.

Material/Methods

A total of 102 PDAC patients undergoing radical PD at the Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences were retrospectively enrolled based on medical records from June 2009 to June 2019. R programming language was used for the optimal cutoff value of biological markers such as preoperative ACR. Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used for univariate survival analysis, and a Cox regression model was used for multivariate survival analysis.

Results

The optimal cutoff value of preoperative ACR was 32.988. Patients with higher preoperative ACR values had worse OS (P<0.001). Higher preoperative ACR was significantly correlated with the degree of tumor differentiation (P<0.018); levels of alanine aminotransferase (P<0.001), aspartate aminotransferase (P<0.001), total bilirubin (P<0.001), and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (P=0.016); and clinical symptoms (P=0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that tumor differentiation (P<0.001), ACR value (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.225, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.33–3.724, P=0.002), and sex (HR, 1.725, 95% CI: 1.1–2.704, P=0.018) were independent factors associated with the prognosis of PDAC patients undergoing radical PD.

Conclusions

The preoperative ACR was correlated with OS in pancreatic cancer patients undergoing radical pancreaticoduodenectomy. Elevated ACR was correlated with poor OS.

Albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio as a predictor of tumor recurrence and prognosis in patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing radiofrequency ablation as initial therapy

OBJECTIVE

Albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR), a newly developed blood biomarker, has been reported to have prognostic value in several types of cancer. This study aimed to investigate the predictive value of AAPR in patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA) as initial therapy.

METHODS

This retrospective study analyzed 445 patients with newly diagnosed HCC undergoing RFA as initial therapy. A series of survival analyses were performed to evaluate the prognostic value of AAPR. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors. An AAPR-based nomogram was constructed, and its predictive performance was validated.

RESULTS

Patients with a low AAPR had a significantly reduced recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) compared with those with a high AAPR. AAPR was found to be an independent prognostic indicator and showed superior discrimination efficacy than other liver function indices. The AAPR-based nomogram had a concordance index value of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.65-0.79) in the training cohort and 0.72 (95% CI: 0.63-0.81) in the validation cohort, which significantly outperformed other existing staging systems.

CONCLUSIONS

AAPR serves as a promising indicator of prognosis in patients with early-stage HCC undergoing RFA. The AAPR-based nomogram might contribute to individualized prognosis prediction and clinical decision making.

Alkaline phosphatase-to-albumin ratio as a novel predictor of long-term adverse outcomes in coronary artery disease patients who underwent PCI

Background: Alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and albumin (ALB) have been shown to be associated with coronary artery disease (CAD), and it has been reported that alkaline phosphatase-to-albumin ratio (AAR) is associated with the liver damage and poorer prognosis of patients with digestive system malignancy. Moreover, several previous studies showed that there was a higher incidence of malignancy in CAD patients. However, to our knowledge, the relationship between AAR and long-term adverse outcomes in CAD patients after undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has not been investigated. Therefore, we aim to access the relation between AAR and long-term adverse outcomes in post-PCI patients with CAD.

Methods: A total of 3378 post-PCI patients with CAD were enrolled in the retrospective Clinical Outcomes and Risk Factors of Patients with Coronary Heart Disease after PCI (CORFCHD-ZZ) study from January 2013 to December 2017. The median duration of follow-up was 37.59 ± 22.24 months. The primary end point was long-term mortality including all-cause mortality (ACM) and cardiac mortality (CM). The secondary end points were major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs).

Results: Kaplan–Meier analyses showed that an increased AAR was positively correlated with incidences of long-term ACM (log-rank, P=0.014), CM (log-rank, P=0.011), MACEs (log-rank, P=0.013) and MACCEs (log-rank, P=0.006). Multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that the elevated AAR was an independent predictor of long-term ACM (adjusted HR = 1.488 [1.031–2.149], P=0.034), CM (adjusted HR = 1.837 [1.141–2.959], P=0.012), MACEs (adjusted HR = 1.257 [1.018–1.551], P=0.033) and MACCEs (adjusted HR = 1.237 [1.029–1.486], P=0.024).

Conclusion: An elevated AAR is a novel independent predictor of long-term adverse outcomes in CAD patients following PCI.

Elucidation and control of low and high active populations of alkaline phosphatase molecules for quantitative digital bioassay

Alkaline phosphatase (ALP), a homo‐dimeric enzyme has been widely used in various bioassays as disease markers and enzyme probes. Recent advancements of digital bioassay revolutionized ALP‐based diagnostic assays as seen in rapid growth of digital ELISA and the emerging multiplex profiling of single‐molecule ALP isomers. However, the intrinsic heterogeneity found among ALP molecules hampers the ALP‐based quantitative digital bioassays. This study aims quantitative analysis of single‐molecule activities of ALP from Escherichia coli and reveals the static heterogeneity in catalytic activity of ALP with two distinct populations: half‐active and fully‐active portions. Digital assays with serial buffer exchange uncovered single‐molecule Michaelis–Menten kinetics of ALP; half‐active molecules have halved values of the catalytic turnover rate, k_cat, and the rate constant of productive binding, k_on, of the fully active molecules. These findings suggest that half‐active ALP molecules are heterogenic dimers composed of inactive and active monomer units, while fully active ALP molecules comprise two active units. Static heterogeneity was also observed for ALP with other origins: calf intestine or shrimp, showing how the findings can be generalized across species. Cell‐free expression of ALP with disulfide bond enhancer and spiked zinc ion resulted in homogenous population of ALP of full activity, implying that inactive monomer units of ALP are deficient in correct disulfide bond formation and zinc ion coordination. These findings provide basis for further study on molecular mechanism and biogenesis of ALP, and also offer the way to prepare homogenous and active populations of ALP for highly quantitative and sensitive bioassays with ALP.

Prognostic Utility of Prechemoradiotherapy Albumin-to-Alkaline Phosphatase Ratio in Unresectable Locally Advanced Pancreatic Carcinoma Patients

Background

We investigated the prognostic usefulness of prechemoradiotherapy (CRT) albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR) in unresectable locally advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma (LAPAC) patients managed with definitive concurrent CRT (CCRT).

Methods

A sum of 136 LAPAC patients who consecutively underwent definitive CCRT was retrospectively analyzed. The AAPR (serum albumin (g/dL)/serum alkaline phosphatase (IU/L)) was calculated by using the parameters obtained from the routine biochemistry tests on the first day of the CCRT. Ideal AAPR cutoff was sought by utilizing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The primary and secondary endpoints were the impact of the AAPR on the overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) results, respectively.

Results

At a median follow-up of 14.8 months (range: 3.2-85.7), the median PFS and OS times were 7.5 (95% confidence interval (CI): 6.0-9.0) and 14.9 months (95% CI: 11.9-17.9), respectively. The ideal common AAPR cutoff was identified at the rounded 0.46 (area under the curve: 72.3%; sensitivity: 71.2%; specificity: 70.3%) point that dichotomized the patients into two groups: low AAPR (L-AAPR; N = 71) and high AAPR (H-AAPR; N = 65) groups, respectively. Comparative survival analyses showed that the L-AAPR cohort had significantly shorter median PFS (6.8 (95% CI: 5.7-7.9) versus 11.3 (95% CI: 9.9-12.7) months; P = 0.005) and OS (12.8 (95% CI: 10.6-15.0) versus 19.2 (95% CI: 16.9-21.5) months; P = 0.001) durations than their H-AAPR counterparts, separately. Albeit the N1-2 (P = 0.004) and CA 19‐9 > 90 U/mL (P = 0.008) were also found to be associated with inferior outcomes, yet the results of the multivariate analyses ascertained the L-AAPR as an independent indicator of diminished PFS (P = 0.003) and OS (P = 0.002) results.

Conclusion

The present results proposed that the pretreatment AAPR < 0.46 was a novel independent indicator of adverse PFS and OS in unresectable LAPAC patients undergoing definitive CCRT.

Albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio as a promising indicator of prognosis in human cancers: is it possible?

Background

The impact of albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR) on prognosis in cancer patients remains uncertain, despite having multiple relevant studies in publication.

Methods

We systemically compiled literatures from 3 databases (Cochrane Library, PubMed, and Web of Science) updated to May 24th, 2020. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed and synthesized using STATA 14, values were then pooled and utilized in order to assess the overall impact of AAPR on patient’s prognosis.

Results

In total, 18 studies involving 25 cohorts with 7019 cases were incorporated. Pooled results originated from both univariate and multivariate analyses (HR = 2.14, 95%CI:1.83–2.51, random-effects model; HR = 1.93, 95%CI:1.75–2.12, fixed-effects model; respectively) suggested that decreased AAPR had adverse effect on overall survival (OS). Similarly, pooled results from both univariate and multivariate analysis of fixed-effects model, evinced that decreased AAPR also had adverse effect on disease-free survival (DFS) (HR = 1.81, 95%CI:1.60–2.04, I² = 29.5%, P = 0.174; HR = 1.69, 95%CI:1.45–1.97, I² = 13.0%, P = 0.330; respectively), progression-free survival (PFS) (HR = 1.71, 95%CI:1.31–2.22, I² = 0.0%, P = 0.754; HR = 1.90, 95%CI:1.16–3.12, I² = 0.0%, P = 0.339; respectively), and cancer-specific survival (CSS) (HR = 2.22, 95%CI:1.67–2.95, I² = 5.6%, P = 0.347; HR = 1.88, 95%CI:1.38–2.57, I² = 26.4%, P = 0.244; respectively). Admittedly, heterogeneity and publication bias existed, but stratification of univariate meta-analytic results, as well as adjusted meta-analytic results via trim and fill method, all showed that AAPR still significantly correlated with poor OS despite of confounding factors.

Conclusions

In summary, decreased AAPR had adverse effect on prognosis in cancer patients. As an inexpensive and convenient ratio derived from liver function test, AAPR might become a promising indicator of prognosis in human cancers.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-07921-6.

Prognostic Value of the Albumin-to-Alkaline Phosphatase Ratio before Chemoradiotherapy in Patients with Nonmetastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of the albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR) in patients with nonmetastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC).

METHODS

Patients with nonmetastatic NPC who underwent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) were retrospectively analyzed. The AAPR was calculated using the last value of albumin to alkaline phosphatase that was measured within 1 week before CRT. The optimal cutoff value for the AAPR value was determined by an X-tile plot. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to balance the differences of the baseline characteristics. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used to calculate the survival. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was conducted for the multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

Totally, 87 patients with nonmetastatic NPC who underwent CRT were included in the analysis. The optimal cutoff level for the AAPR was 0.46. The group with an AAPR ≤0.46 was more likely to have poorer overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) (p = 0.023, p = 0.031 and p = 0.027, for OS, PFS, and DMFS, respectively). In Cox proportional hazards analysis, high AAPR was a better prognostic predictor.

CONCLUSION

AAPR may be a reliable prognostic index for nonmetastatic NPC patients.

Prognostic Value of a Nomogram Based on the Dynamic Albumin-to-Alkaline Phosphatase Ratio for Patients with Extensive-Stage Small-Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose

Small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) is known as the characteristics of high invasion, rapid progression, and poor prognosis. Therefore, identification of patients with high risk of progression and death is critical to improve the survival of patients with extensive-stage SCLC (ES-SCLC). This study was designed to determine the prognostic importance of the albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR) in the survival of patients with ES-SCLC and to develop a nomogram based on AAPR dynamics for ES-SCLC prognosis.

Patients and Methods

Characteristics were reviewed from 300 patients with ES-SCLC. Training and validation cohorts included 200 and 100 patients, respectively. We applied univariate and multivariate Cox models to assess the prognostic value of AAPR for ES-SCLC. The nomogram for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) of ES-SCLC patients was developed based on the multivariate survival analysis of the training cohort. External validation of the established nomogram was performed using the validation cohort.

Results

N3 stage, thoracic radiotherapy, and post-AAPR were the independent factors identified for PFS. T stage, thoracic radiotherapy, and high post-AAPR were the independent risk factors identified for death. The prognostic nomogram was established by integrating the independent significant factors for PFS and OS in the training cohort with the c-indices of 0.675 and 0.662, respectively, and validated in the validation cohort. The nomogram had superior prognosis prediction ability than did TNM stage. Decision curve analysis (DCA) also indicated clinical net benefits from the nomogram.

Conclusion

AAPR was valuable for prognosis prediction in patients with ES-SCLC and was recommended to be dynamically evaluated to guide patient treatment. Additionally, the nomogram covering post-AAPR accurately predicted individual survival probability.

Validation of the Prognostic Value of Preoperative Albumin-to-Alkaline Phosphatase Ratio in Patients with Surgically Treated Non-Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma

Purpose

Several studies have revealed that albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR) was correlated to the survival of several cancers. To explore the impact of AAPR on the survival of non-metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients following nephrectomy, the present study was conducted.

Patients and Methods

A total of 648 patients were enrolled in the present study. The cut-off value of AAPR was determined based on the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Univariate and multivariate analyses were applied to identify prognostic factors. The discrimination and calibration of models for survival outcomes were evaluated based on the concordance index (C-index), ROC analysis and calibration curve.

Results

The low AAPR (≤0.5) was associated with older age (P<0.001), higher T stage (P=0.002), larger tumor size (P=0.014) and tumor necrosis (P=0.003). A high AAPR was significantly correlated to better OS (hazard ratio, HR=0.61; P=0.038) and CSS (HR=0.52; P=0.013) based on multivariate analysis. Integrating AAPR with UISS or SSIGN, the C-indexes of nomogram for OS (UISS: 0.790 vs 0.765; SSIGN: 0.861 vs 0.850) and CSS (UISS: 0.832 vs 0.805; SSIGN: 0.905 vs 0.896) increased. Moreover, the nomogram for OS and CSS was established based on the multivariate analysis. The C-indexes of nomogram for OS and CSS were 0.834 (95% CI 0.794–0.874) and 0.867 (95% CI 0.830–0.904), respectively.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the high preoperative AAPR was a favorable prognostic factor for surgically treated non-metastatic RCC patients. AAPR also could improve the predictive value of well-established models. The nomogram that incorporates AAPR had a good performance. More prospective studies with a large scale are essential to validate our findings.

Pretreatment albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio as a prognostic indicator in solid cancers: A meta-analysis with trial sequential analysis

BACKGROUND

Albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR), a novel and economic serum biomarker, is associated with survival in patients with cancer. This study aimed to evaluate the potential role of AAPR as a prognostic indicator of solid cancers.

METHODS

This meta-analysis with trial sequential analysis of retrospective studies was designed to investigate the relationship between AAPR and overall survival (OS) in solid cancers. The meta-analysis included 5951 patients from 20 cohorts. The main predictor variable was AAPR, and the main outcome was OS. Statistical tests were performed using Stata 12.0, Revman 5.3, and R 3.6.1.

RESULTS

Compared to patients with a lower AAPR, those with a higher AAPR had a better OS (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.50; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.43-0.58; p < 0.001). Subgroup analysis by tumor type indicated that a higher AAPR was associated with a better OS in non-small cell lung cancer (HR: 0.45; 95% CI: 0.26-0.78; p < 0.001), small cell lung cancer (HR: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.44-0.82; p < 0.001), hepatocellular carcinoma (HR: 0.49; 95% CI: 0.34-0.69; p < 0.001), pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (HR: 0.47; 95% CI: 0.31-0.71; p < 0.001), and nasopharyngeal carcinoma (HR: 0.42; 95% CI: 0.21-0.85; p = 0.016).

CONCLUSION

Pretreatment AAPR may be a useful prognostic indicator in solid cancers.

A Novel Prediction Tool Based on Large Cohorts to Determine the Cancer-Specific Survival Probability of Patients With Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer After Irreversible Electroporation Treatment

Irreversible electroporation (IRE) is a novel method which was especially suitable for the treatment of locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC). The purpose of this study was to evaluate probabilities of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with LAPC after IRE treatment and to construct nomograms to predict survival for these patients. Data of patients were retrospectively collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and medical records of Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC). A total of 312 LAPC patients after IRE treatment were included into this study. The 3-year cumulative incidence of cancer-specific mortality for patients with LAPC after IRE treatment was 74.3%. Nomograms for predicting probabilities of OS, CSS, and non-cancer-specific survival (NCSS) were built and calibrated with the concordance index (C-index) and the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). The established nomograms were well-calibrated, with C-indexes of 0.782 for OS prediction, 0.729 for CSS prediction, and 0.730 for NCSS prediction. Compared with the TNM stage system, the established nomograms displayed higher values of AUC and showed better discriminatory power for predicting OS, CSS, and NCSS. These nomograms were well-calibrated and could serve to guide management of LAPC patients after IRE treatment.

Albumin-to-Alkaline Phosphatase Ratio is an Independent Prognostic Indicator in Combined Hepatocellular and Cholangiocarcinoma

Background: The clinical significance of Albumin-to-Alkaline Phosphatase Ratio (AAPR) has been discussed in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and cholangiocarcinoma (CC). The aim of this study is to clarify the prognostic value of AAPR in patients with combined hepatocellular and cholangiocarcinoma (cHCC-CCA). Methods: A total of 267 patients pathologically diagnosed as Allen type C cHCC-CCA in our institution were retrospectively enrolled and randomly divided into the training (N=187) cohort and validation (N=80) cohort. The prognostic value of AAPR was evaluated and validated. An AAPR-based nomogram was constructed and its prediction performance was assessed. Results: We identified 0.43 as the optimal threshold value of AAPR by the X-tile software. In the training cohort, the median overall survival (OS) of patients with AAPR < 0.43 was significant shorter than that of those with AAPR ≥ 0.43(15.8 months vs 35 months, respectively, P < 0.001). Univariate and multivariate analyses demonstrated that AAPR was a strong indicator of OS. The concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, likelihood ratio tests (LAT), Akaike information criteria (AIC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated that AAPR outperformed the Child-Pugh (CP) grade and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade in predicting OS. These findings were further verified in the validation cohort. The AAPR-based nomogram achieved C-index values of 0.76 (95%CI: 0.71-0.81) in the training cohort and 0.69 (95%CI: 0.60-0.78) in the validation cohort, which presented significant superiority to TNM stage. Conclusions: Preoperative AAPR is an independent prognostic predictor in cHCC-CCA. The AAPR-based nomogram contributes to personalized prognosis prediction and clinical decision making for cHCC-CCA.

Albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio serves as a prognostic indicator in unresectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: a propensity score matching analysis

BACKGROUND

Recent evidence suggests that albumin-to-Alkaline Phosphatase Ratio (AAPR) functions as a novel prognostic marker in several malignancies. However, whether it can predict the prognosis of unresectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) remains unclear. Herein, we seek to investigate this possibility by a propensity score matching (PSM) analysis.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study in which 419 patients diagnosed with unresectable PDAC and receiving chemotherapy were recruited. Patients were stratified based on the cutoff value of AAPR. The PSM analysis was performed to identify 156 well-balanced patients in each group for overall survival (OS) comparison and subgroup analysis. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to examine the potential of AAPR to indicate the prognosis of unresectable PDAC. The prediction performance of conventional model and combined model including AAPR was compared using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and concordance index (C-index).

RESULTS

We identified an AAPR of 0.4 to be the optimal cutoff for OS prediction. Patients with AAPR≤0.4 had significantly shorter OS compared with patients with AAPR> 0.4 (6.4 versus 9.3 months; P < 0.001). Based on the PSM cohort and entire cohort, multivariate Cox analysis revealed that high pretreatment for AAPR was an independent marker predicting favorable survival in unresectable PDAC (hazard ratio, 0.556; 95% confidence interval, 0.408 to 0.757; P < 0.001). Significant differences in OS were observed in all subgroups except for the group of patients age ≤ 60. Combined prognostic model including AAPR had lower AIC and higher C-index than conventional prognostic model.

CONCLUSIONS

Pretreatment AAPR servers as an independent prognostic indicator for patients with unresectable PDAC. Inclusion of AAPR improved the prediction performance of conventional prognostic model, potentially helping clinicians to identify patients at high risk and guide individualized treatment.

A 16-mRNA signature optimizes recurrence-free survival prediction of Stages II and III gastric cancer

High-throughput messenger RNA (mRNA) analysis has become a powerful tool for exploring tumor recurrence or metastasis mechanisms. Here, we constructed a signature to predict the recurrence risk of Stages II and III gastric cancer (GC) patients. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method Cox regression model was utilized to construct the signature. Using this method, a 16-mRNA signature was identified to be associated with the relapse-free survival of Stages II and III GCs in training dataset GSE62254 (n = 194). Then this signature was validated in an independent Gene Expression Omnibus cohort GSE26253 (n = 297) and a dataset of The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA; n = 235). This classifier could successfully screen out the high-risk Stages II and III GCs in the training cohort (hazard ratio [HR] = 40.91; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.58-299.7; p < .0001). Analysis in two independent validation cohorts yielded consistent results (GSE26253: HR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.17-2.43,; p = .0045; TCGA: HR = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.13-3.56, p = .0146). Cox regression analyses revealed that the risk score derived from this signature was an independent risk factor in Stages II and III GCs. Besides, a nomogram was constructed to serve clinical practice. Through gene set variation analysis, we found several gene sets associated with chemotherapeutic drug resistance and tumor metastasis significantly enriched in high-risk patients. In summary, this 16-mRNA signature can be used as a powerful tool for prognostic evaluation and help clinicians identify high-risk patients.

The Value of Alkaline Phosphatase-to-Albumin Ratio in Detecting Synchronous Metastases and Predicting Postoperative Relapses among Patients with Well-Differentiated Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Neoplasms

Backgrounds

Pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasm (pNEN) is a highly heterogeneous entity, presenting widely varied biological behavior as well as long-term prognosis. Reliable biomarkers are urgently needed to make risk stratifications for pNEN patients, which could be beneficial to the development of individualized therapeutic strategy in the clinical practice. Here, we aimed to evaluate the predictive and prognostic roles of serum alkaline phosphatase-to-albumin ratio (APAR) in well-differentiated pNEN patients.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed the pathologically confirmed grade 1/2 pNEN patients, who were originally treated in our hospital from February 2008 to April 2018. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to assess the value of APAR in detecting synchronous metastases and predicting relapses following curative resections.

Results

A total of 170 eligible cases were included into analysis. Logistic univariate analysis indicated APAR (P=0.002) was significantly associated with synchronous distant metastasis among well-differentiated pNEN patients, which was further demonstrated to be an independent risk factor by multivariate analysis (odds ratio 8.127, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.105–31.372, P=0.002) was significantly associated with synchronous distant metastasis among well-differentiated pNEN patients, which was further demonstrated to be an independent risk factor by multivariate analysis (odds ratio 8.127, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.105–31.372, P=0.002) was significantly associated with synchronous distant metastasis among well-differentiated pNEN patients, which was further demonstrated to be an independent risk factor by multivariate analysis (odds ratio 8.127, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.105–31.372, P=0.002) was significantly associated with synchronous distant metastasis among well-differentiated pNEN patients, which was further demonstrated to be an independent risk factor by multivariate analysis (odds ratio 8.127, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.105–31.372, P=0.002) was significantly associated with synchronous distant metastasis among well-differentiated pNEN patients, which was further demonstrated to be an independent risk factor by multivariate analysis (odds ratio 8.127, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.105–31.372,

Conclusion

APAR may work as a convenient pretreatment marker to detect synchronous distant metastasis for well-differentiated pNEN patients and predict recurrences for curatively resected cases without nerve or vascular invasion. However, these findings should be further verified in prospectively well-designed studies.

Surveillance and management for serous cystic neoplasms of the pancreas based on total hazards-a multi-center retrospective study from China

Background

Serous cystic neoplasms (SCN) rarely have malignant potential, so accurate diagnosis of SCN is crucial for proper clinical management, especially to avoid unnecessary surgeries. However, the misdiagnosis of other pancreatic cystic neoplasm instead of SCN may highly increase the risk of malignancy in patients who receive no surgery.

Methods

Data from a total of 678 patients with pathologically confirmed to have SCN at sixteen institutions in China from January 1^st, 2006 to December 31^st, 2016 were retrieved to evaluate the malignancy risk of SCN.

Results

Among the 678 patients confirmed to have SCN with postoperative pathologic analysis, 649 patients (95.7%) had only one lesion and the average maximum diameter was 3.8±2.47 cm. Four patients were pathologically verified as having serous cystadenocarcinoma, so the SCN actual malignancy rate was 0.6%, while the mortality due to pancreatic surgery in these high-volume centers was nearly 0.2-2%. However, among the 99 SCN patients based on preoperative radiology, three were confirmed to have intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN), nine as mucinous cystic neoplasms (MCN), and four as solid pseudopapillary tumors (SPT) after postoperative pathological analysis. Thus, the total theoretical malignancy rate resulting from preoperative misdiagnosis was elevated to approximately 2.9%, higher than the risk of perioperative mortality.

Conclusions

When SCN can't be accurately distinguished from cystic tumors of pancreas, the malignant risk of cystic tumors may be higher than perioperative risk. However, if it can be diagnosed as SCN accurately, surgery can be avoided as well.

The Prognostic Significance Of Pretreatment Albumin/alkaline Phosphatase Ratio In Patients With Stage IB-IIA Cervical Cancer

Background

Pretreatment albumin/alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR) has been discussed about its prognostic value in several malignancies, whereas its role in cervical cancer remains unclear. In this study, we attempt to explore the prognostic significance of the AAPR in stage IB-IIA cervical cancer patients who underwent a radical hysterectomy.

Patients and methods

A total of 230 cervical cancer patients were enrolled in this retrospective study. The threshold value of AAPR was determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariate analysis were performed to identify independent prognostic predictors of disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS).

Results

The optimal cut-off value of the preoperative AAPR was 0.68. Patients with AAPR<0.68 showed obviously inferior OS and DFS than those with AAPR>0.68 according to Kaplan-Meier curves (DFS: P = 0.011; OS: P = 0.017). In multivariate analysis, the preoperative AAPR showed to be an independent predictive factor for disease-free survival (DFS: P = 0.015) and overall survival (OS: P = 0.019). Moreover, subgroup analysis revealed that the lower AAPR was correlated with worse prognosis in patients with histologic grade I-II; but in those with histologic grade III, there was no significant difference between the two groups.

Conclusion

Preoperative AAPR was a potentially valuable prognostic index in stage IB-IIA cervical cancer patients. Further prospective studies are required to validate its prognostic value.

Independent effect of postoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio on the survival of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma with open distal pancreatosplenectomy and its nomogram-based prediction

Background: The prognosis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) remains poor. Open distal pancreatosplenectomy (ODPS) is prevalent in the patients of early PDAC located in pancreatic body or tail. However, the models for relapse or survival prediction in those patients are still limited. Postoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte rate (poNLR), a novel inflammation-based score, has been formulated to analyze the prognostic significance in PDAC patients with ODPS. Therefore, this study aims to generate a valuable prognostic nomogram for PDAC following ODPS. Methods: We retrospectively enrolled 97 patients of PDAC undergoing ODPS in this study. The Cox proportional hazards regression methodology was used in univariate and multivariate survival analyses to identify significant independent prognostic factors. The prognostic nomograms integrating poNLR into the American Joint Commission on Cancer (AJCC) staging system (8th edition) for predicting overall survival (OS) and relapse free survival (RFS) were established to achieve superior discriminatory abilities. Further, these prognostic nomograms were verified according to concordance index (C-index), calibrations and decision curve analyses (DCA). Results: The optimal cut-off value of poNLR for assessing OS determined by X-tile program was 14.1. Higher poNLR was associated with higher postoperative neutrophil (poNeutrophil), lower postoperative lymphocyte (poLymphocyte), lower preoperative lymphocyte-to-monocyte rate (preLMR) and higher △NLR (postoperative-preoperative NLR). In the univariate and multivariate analysis, poNLR was identified as an independent prognostic indicator for OS and RFS (P=0.044 and 0.028, respectively) and patients with higher poNLR level were probable to have shorter OS and RFS. Compared with the TNM staging system of the AJCC 8th edition, the nomogram comprising of poNLR and AJCC 8th edition exhibited superior predictive accuracy for OS and RFS. Conclusions: poNLR can be a proven, inexpensive and novel survival predictor of PDAC patients with ODPS. One more advanced and accurate predictive model will be achieved to assist in risk stratification via the incorporation of poNLR into nomograms.

Optimized modification of the eighth edition of AJCC TNM staging system for resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

Aim: To reassess the prognostic performance of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and optimize the categorization of PDAC staging. Patients & methods: A total of 11,858 patients with resected PDAC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database were retrospectively enrolled by sequential analyses. Results: There was no statistical significance between stage IIA and IIB tumors with hazard ratios of 2.065 and 2.184 (p = 0.620) for stages IIA and IIB, respectively. With the proposed modification, there was a significant difference between the hazard ratios of stages IIIA and IIIB which were 2.481 and 2.715, respectively (p = 0.009). The C-index of modified system was 0.609, slightly higher than AJCC 8th staging system 0.604. Conclusion: We proposed a modified eighth edition of the AJCC staging system by combining stage IIA with IIB and further subclassifying stage III patients in order to lead to better discriminative power.

A systematic review of methodological quality of model development studies predicting prognostic outcome for resectable pancreatic cancer

OBJECTIVES

To assess the methodological quality of prognostic model development studies pertaining to post resection prognosis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).

DESIGN/SETTING

A narrative systematic review of international peer reviewed journals DATA SOURCE: Searches were conducted of: MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, Cochrane database and Google Scholar for predictive modelling studies applied to the outcome of prognosis for patients with PDAC post resection. Predictive modelling studies in this context included prediction model development studies with and without external validation and external validation studies with model updating. Data was extracted following the Checklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS) checklist.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcomes were all components of the CHARMS checklist. Secondary outcomes included frequency of variables included across predictive models.

RESULTS

263 studies underwent full text review. 15 studies met the inclusion criteria. 3 studies underwent external validation. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression was the most commonly employed modelling method (n=13). 10 studies were based on single centre databases. Five used prospective databases, seven used retrospective databases and three used cancer data registry. The mean number of candidate predictors was 19.47 (range 7 to 50). The most commonly included variables were tumour grade (n=9), age (n=8), tumour stage (n=7) and tumour size (n=5). Mean sample size was 1367 (range 50 to 6400). 5 studies reached statistical power. None of the studies reported blinding of outcome measurement for predictor values. The most common form of presentation was nomograms (n=5) and prognostic scores (n=5) followed by prognostic calculators (n=3) and prognostic index (n=2).

CONCLUSIONS

Areas for improvement in future predictive model development have been highlighted relating to: general aspects of model development and reporting, applicability of models and sources of bias.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018105942.

Albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio as a novel prognostic indicator for patients undergoing minimally invasive lung cancer surgery: Propensity score matching analysis using a prospective database

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate prognostic significance of albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR) for patients undergoing video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) lobectomy for non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) by a propensity score-matching (PSM) analysis.

METHODS

This PSM study was conducted on the prospectively-maintained database in our institution between December 2013 and March 2015. Overall survival analyses and further subgroup analyses were both performed to distinguish the differences in postoperative survival between patients stratified by an optimal cutoff of AAPR. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were established to determine the independent prognostic factors.

RESULTS

There were 390 patients with operable NSCLCs included. An AAPR of 0.57 was identified as the optimal cutoff regarding to postoperative survival. Both overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with AAPR≤0.57 were significantly shortened compared to those in patient with AAPR>0.57 (Log-rank P < 0.001). Patients with AAPR≤0.57 had significantly lower rates of OS and DFS than those of patients with AAPR>0.57 (P < 0.001). These differences still remained significant after subgroup analyses and PSM analyses. Multivariate analyses on the entire cohort and the PSM cohort commonly indicated that low preoperative AAPR could be an independent prognostic factor for unfavorable OS and DFS of resected NSCLCs.

CONCLUSIONS

AAPR can serve as a novel risk stratification tool to refine prognostic prediction for surgical NSCLC. It may help surgeons to screen high-surgical-risk patients and further formulate individualized treatment schemes.

Cell-intrinsic PD-1 promotes proliferation in pancreatic cancer by targeting CYR61/CTGF via the hippo pathway

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) remains a refractory disease. Programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1) monotherapy has shown strong performance in targeting several malignancies. However, the effect and mechanism of intrinsic PD-1 in pancreatic cancer cells is still unknown. In this study, associations between clinicopathological characteristics and stained tissue microarrays of PDAC specimens were analyzed along with profiling and functional analyses. The results showed that cell-intrinsic PD-1 was significantly correlated with overall survival (OS). Independently of adaptive immunity, intrinsic PD-1 promoted tumor growth in PDAC. Concomitantly, the overexpression of intrinsic PD-1 enhanced cancer proliferation and inhibited cell apoptosis in vitro and in vivo. Mechanistically, PD-1 binds to the downstream MOB1, thereby inhibiting its phosphorylation. Moreover, greater synergistic tumor suppression in vitro resulted from combining Hippo inhibitors with anti-PD-1 treatment compared with the suppression achieved by either single agent alone. Additionally, Hippo downstream targets, CYR61 (CCN1) and CTGF (CCN2), were directly affected by PD-1 mediated Hippo signaling activation in concert with survival outcomes. Finally, the formulated nomogram showed superior predictive accuracy for OS in comparison with the TNM stage alone. Therefore, PD-1 immunotherapy in combination with Hippo pathway inhibitors may optimize the anti-tumor efficacy in PDAC patients via targeting cell-intrinsic PD-1.

Prognostic impact of the pretreatment albumin to alkaline phosphatase ratio for nonmetastatic breast cancer patients

Introduction: Albumin and alkaline phosphatase have been previously demonstrated as independent prognostic factors for various types of cancer. Here, we aimed to explore the potential value of pretreatment albumin to alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR) on overall survival (OS) in nonmetastatic breast cancer patients.

Methods: A total of 746 nonmetastatic breast cancer patients were enrolled in this study. Receiver characteristic curve was used to analyze the AAPR threshold. Survival analysis was conducted using the Kaplan–Meier method and compared with the log-rank test. Both univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards regression methodology.

Results: The optimal cutoff value of AAPR in predicting OS in nonmetastatic breast cancer patients was 0.525. Increased pretreatment AAPR level was related to age at diagnosis (≥60 years vs <60 years, P=0.000), tumor size (T≤2 cm vs T>2 cm, P=0.034), estrogen receptor (positive vs negative, P=0.022), progesterone receptor (positive vs negative, P=0.025), carcino-embryonic antigen (abnormal vs normal, P=0.016), surgery (lumpectomy vs mastectomy, P=0.002), chemotherapy (yes vs no, P=0.004), radiotherapy (yes vs no, P=0.013), endocrine therapy (yes vs no, P=0.027) but not with lymph node involvement, HER-2 status or CA-153. The 5-year OS rate was 80.16% for the low AAPR group and 92.66% for the high AAPR group. Kaplan–Meier analysis indicated that patients with low-AAPR levels had shorter OS than patients with high-AAPR levels (P=0.001). N classification (P<0.05), Ki-67 (HR=3.603, 95% CI=1.046–12.414, P=0.042) and AAPR (HR=0.447, 95% CI=0.205–0.976, P=0.043) were related to OS in multivariate analyses, respectively.

Conclusion: AAPR is an independent prognostic factor for OS in nonmetastatic breast cancer patients. Further prospective studies are required to confirm our findings.

Systematic review of clinical prediction models for survival after surgery for resectable pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

As more therapeutic options for pancreatic cancer are becoming available, there is a need to improve outcome prediction to support shared decision-making. A systematic evaluation of prediction models in resectable pancreatic cancer is lacking.

METHODS

This systematic review followed the CHARMS and PRISMA guidelines. PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library databases were searched up to 11 October 2017. Studies reporting development or validation of models predicting survival in resectable pancreatic cancer were included. Models without performance measures, reviews, abstracts or more than 10 per cent of patients not undergoing resection in postoperative models were excluded. Studies were appraised critically.

RESULTS

After screening 4403 studies, 22 (44 319 patients) were included. There were 19 model development/update studies and three validation studies, altogether concerning 21 individual models. Two studies were deemed at low risk of bias. Eight models were developed for the preoperative setting and 13 for the postoperative setting. Most frequently included parameters were differentiation grade (11 of 21 models), nodal status (8 of 21) and serum albumin (7 of 21). Treatment-related variables were included in three models. The C-statistic/area under the curve values ranged from 0·57 to 0·90. Based on study design, validation methods and the availability of web-based calculators, two models were identified as the most promising.

CONCLUSION

Although a large number of prediction models for resectable pancreatic cancer have been reported, most are at high risk of bias and have not been validated externally. This overview of prognostic factors provided practical recommendations that could help in designing easily applicable prediction models to support shared decision-making.

The Prognostic Value of Albumin-to-Alkaline Phosphatase Ratio before Radical Radiotherapy in Patients with Non-metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis

Purpose

We first analyzed the prognostic power of albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR) before radical radiotherapy (RT) in non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients.

Materials and Methods

The records of 170 patients with biopsy-proven, non-metastatic NPC treated by radical RT between 1998 and 2016 at our institution were retrospectively reviewed. Median follow-up duration was 50.6 months. All patients received intensity-modulated RT and cisplatin based chemotherapy before, during, or after RT. The major treatment of patients was based on concurrent chemoradiotherapy (92.4%). The AAPR was calculated by the last value of both albumin and alkaline phosphatase within 1 month immediately preceding RT. The optimal cut-off level of AAPR was determined by using Cutoff Finder, a web-based system. Propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was performed.

Results

The optimal cut-off level of AAPR was 0.4876. After PSM analysis of whole cohort, an AAPR was not related to survival outcomes. In PSM analysis for patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LA-NPC), an AAPR ≥ 0.4876 was related to better overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and locoregional relapse–free survival (LRRFS) (OS: hazard ratio [HR], 0.341; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.144 to 0.805; p=0.014; PFS: HR, 0.416; 95% CI, 0.189 to 0.914; p=0.029; and LRRFS: HR, 0.243; 95% CI, 0.077 to 0.769; p=0.016, respectively).

Conclusion

The AAPR, inexpensive and readily derived from a routine blood test, could be an independent prognostic factor for patients with LA-NPC. And it might help physicians determine treatment plans by identifying the patient's current status. Future prospective clinical trials to validate its prognostic value are needed.

MRI-based nomogram estimates the risk of recurrence of primary nonmetastatic pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors after curative resection

BACKGROUND

Accurate estimation of the recurrence of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors help with prognosis, guide follow-up, and avoid futile treatments.

PURPOSE

To investigate whether MRI features could preoperatively estimate the recurrence of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs) and to refine a novel prognostic model through developing a nomogram incorporating various MRI features.

STUDY TYPE

Retrospective.

POPULATION

In all, 81 patients with clinicopathologically confirmed nonmetastatic PNETs.

FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCES

1.5 T MR, including T₁ -weighted, T₂ -weighted, and diffusion-weighted imaging sequences.

ASSESSMENT

Qualitative and quantitative MRI features of PNET were assessed by three experienced radiologists.

STATISTICAL TESTS

Uni- and multivariable analyses for recurrence-free survival (RFS) were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazards model. The MRI-based nomogram was then designed based on multivariable logistic analysis in our study and the performance of the nomogram was validated according to C-index, calibration, and decision curve analyses.

RESULTS

MRI features, including tumor size (hazard ratio [HR]: 14.131; P = 0.034), enhancement pattern (HR: 21.821, P = 0.032), and the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values (HR: 0.055, P = 0.038) were significant independent predictors of RFS at multivariable analysis. The performance of the nomogram incorporating various MRI features (with a C-index of 0.910) was improved compared with that based on tumor size, enhancement pattern, and ADC alone (with C-index values of 0.672, 0.851, and 0.809, respectively). The calibration curve of the nomogram exhibited perfect consistency between estimation and observation at 0.5, 1, and 2 years after surgery. The decision curve showed that a nomogram incorporating three features had more favorable clinical predictive usefulness than any single feature.

DATA CONCLUSION

MRI features can be considered effective recurrence predictors for PNETs after surgery. The preliminary nomogram incorporating various MRI features could assess the risk of recurrence in PNETs and may be used to optimize individual treatment strategies.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

4 Technical Efficacy: Stage 2 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2019;50:397-409.

Prognostic value of pretreatment serum lactate dehydrogenase level in pancreatic cancer patients: A meta-analysis of 18 observational studies

BACKGROUND

Several studies were conducted to investigate the prognostic value of pretreatment serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level in pancreatic cancer (PC), but the results were inconsistent. This study aims to comprehensively assess the prognostic value of pretreatment serum LDH level in PC patients by combining the data of the published literatures on this topic.

METHODS

Embase, PubMed, and Web of Science were completely retrieved until June, 2018. The observational studies focusing on the prognostic value of pretreatment serum LDH level in PC patients were eligible. STATA version 12.0 was used to undertake the statistical analysis.

RESULTS

Eighteen studies with a total of 3345 patients were included in this meta-analysis. The meta-analysis was conducted to generate pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for overall survival (OS). Our analysis results suggested that high serum LDH level predicted worse OS (HR 1.57, 95% CI 1.30-1.90, P < .001) in PC patients. Moreover, for patients with advanced PC, the prognostic relevance of pretreatment serum LDH level not only existed in those receiving palliative chemotherapy (HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.35-2.18, P < .001), but also in those who were precluded from chemotherapy (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.4219-2.58, P < .001).

CONCLUSION

The meta-analysis results demonstrated that pretreatment serum LDH level is closely associated with OS, and it may be a useful biomarker for assessing the prognosis of PC patients.

Overall survival and cancer-specific survival in patients with surgically resected pancreatic head adenocarcinoma: A competing risk nomogram analysis

Background: The objective of this study was to estimate probabilities of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with pancreatic head adenocarcinoma after surgery. In addition, we attempted to build nomograms to predict prognosis of these patients.

Methods: Patients diagnosed with surgically resected pancreatic head adenocarcinoma between 2004 and 2014 were selected for the study from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Nomograms were established for estimating 1-, 2- and 3-year OS and CSS based on Cox regression model and Fine and Grey's model. The performance of the nomogram was measured by concordance index (C-index) and the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC).

Results: A total of 2374 patients were retrospectively collected from the SEER database. The discrimination of nomogram for OS prediction was superior to that of the Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) 7th or 8th edition stage systems (C-index = 0.640, 95% CI, 0.618 - 0.662 vs 0.573, 95% CI, 0.554 - 0.593, P < 0.001; 0.640, 95% CI, 0.618 - 0.662 vs 0.596, 95% CI, 0.586 - 0.607, P < 0.001, respectively). The comparisons of values of AUC showed that the established nomograms displayed better discrimination power than TNM 7th or 8th stage systems for predicting both OS and CSS.

Conclusions: The nomograms which could predict 1-, 2- and 3-year OS and CSS were established in this study. Our nomograms showed a relatively good performance and could be served as an effective tool for prognostic evaluation of patients with pancreatic head adenocarcinoma after surgery.

Lactic dehydrogenase to albumin ratio in prediction of unresectable pancreatic cancer with intervention chemotherapy

AIM

To validate the prognostic value of lactic dehydrogenase to albumin ratio (LAR) in patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer treated by intervention chemotherapy.

MATERIALS & METHODS

There were 139 patients retrospectively analyzed in this study. The survival was depicted with Kaplan-Meier curves and calculated by log-rank test. We used Cox proportional hazards regression model with univariate and multivariate analyses, and integrated all independent risk factors to establish the nomogram.

RESULTS

Patient with higher LAR group had poorer overall survival (OS). The Tumor, Node, Metastasis stage, carcinoembryonic antigen and LAR have been shown to be independent prognostic indicators for OS. The nomogram indicated superior predictive accuracy for OS.

CONCLUSION

The preoperative LAR can be a prognostic indicator for unresectable pancreatic cancer patients with interventional therapy.

Comparison of prognostic prediction between nomogram based on lymph node ratio and AJCC 8th staging system for patients with resected pancreatic head carcinoma: a SEER analysis

Background

The prognosis of pancreatic carcinoma (PC) remains poor and the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th staging system for survival prediction in PC patients after curative resection is still limited. Thus, the aim of this study is to refine a valuable prognostic model and novel staging system for PC with curative resection.

Methods

The data of 3,458 patients used in this study were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database registry of National Cancer Institute. The prognostic value of lymph node ratio (LNR) was analyzed in the primary cohort and prognostic nomogram based on the LNR was established to create a novel staging system. Then, analyses were conducted to evaluate the application of the formulated nomogram staging system and the AJCC 8th staging system. The predictive performance of model was further validated in the internal validation cohort.

Results

Significant positive correlations were found between LNR and all factors except for surgical procedures. The results of univariate and multivariate analyses showed that LNR was identified as an independent prognostic indicator for overall survival (OS) in both primary and validation cohorts (all P < 0.001). A prognostic nomogram based on the LNR was formulated to obtain superior discriminatory abilities. Compared with the AJCC 8th staging system, the formulated nomogram staging system showed higher hazard ratios of stage II, III, and IV disease (reference to stage I disease) that were 1.637, 2.300, and 3.521, respectively, by univariate analyses in the primary cohort and the distinction between stage I, II, and III disease at the beginning or end of the survival curves was more apparent. All these results were further verified in the validation cohort.

Conclusion

LNR can be considered as a useful independent prognostic indicator for PC patients after curative resection regardless of the surgical procedures. Compared with the AJCC 8th staging system, the formulated nomogram showed superior predictive accuracy for OS and its novel staging system revealed better risk stratification.