Validation of a multi-ancestry polygenic risk score and age-specific risks of prostate cancer: A meta-analysis within diverse populations

Disrupting prostate cancer research: Challenge accepted; report from the 2023 Coffey-Holden Prostate Cancer Academy Meeting

INTRODUCTION

The 2023 Coffey-Holden Prostate Cancer Academy (CHPCA) Meeting, themed "Disrupting Prostate Cancer Research: Challenge Accepted," was convened at the University of California, Los Angeles, Luskin Conference Center, in Los Angeles, CA, from June 22 to 25, 2023.

METHODS

The 2023 marked the 10th Annual CHPCA Meeting, a discussion-oriented scientific think-tank conference convened annually by the Prostate Cancer Foundation, which centers on innovative and emerging research topics deemed pivotal for advancing critical unmet needs in prostate cancer research and clinical care. The 2023 CHPCA Meeting was attended by 81 academic investigators and included 40 talks across 8 sessions.

RESULTS

The central topic areas covered at the meeting included: targeting transcription factor neo-enhancesomes in cancer, AR as a pro-differentiation and oncogenic transcription factor, why few are cured with androgen deprivation therapy and how to change dogma to cure metastatic prostate cancer without castration, reducing prostate cancer morbidity and mortality with genetics, opportunities for radiation to enhance therapeutic benefit in oligometastatic prostate cancer, novel immunotherapeutic approaches, and the new era of artificial intelligence-driven precision medicine.

DISCUSSION

This article provides an overview of the scientific presentations delivered at the 2023 CHPCA Meeting, such that this knowledge can help in facilitating the advancement of prostate cancer research worldwide.

Early Prostate Cancer Deaths Among Men With Higher vs Lower Genetic Risk

Importance

Prostate cancer, a leading cause of cancer death among men, urgently requires new prevention strategies, which may involve targeting men with an underlying genetic susceptibility.

Objective

To explore differences in risk of early prostate cancer death among men with higher vs lower genetic risk to inform prevention efforts.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used a combined analysis of genotyped men without prostate cancer at inclusion and with lifestyle data in 2 prospective cohort studies in Sweden and the US, the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study (MDCS) and the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (HPFS), followed up from 1991 to 2019. Data were analyzed between April 2023 and April 2024.

Exposures

Men were categorized according to modifiable lifestyle behaviors and genetic risk. A polygenic risk score above the median or a family history of cancer defined men at higher genetic risk (67% of the study population); the remaining men were categorized as being at lower genetic risk.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Prostate cancer death analyzed using time-to-event analysis estimating hazard ratios (HR), absolute risks, and preventable deaths by age.

Results

Among the 19 607 men included for analysis, the median (IQR) age at inclusion was 59.0 (53.0-64.7) years (MDCS) and 65.1 (58.0-71.8) years (HPFS). During follow-up, 107 early (by age 75 years) and 337 late (after age 75 years) prostate cancer deaths were observed. Compared with men at lower genetic risk, men at higher genetic risk had increased rates of both early (HR, 3.26; 95% CI, 1.82-5.84) and late (HR, 2.26; 95% CI, 1.70-3.01) prostate cancer death, and higher lifetime risks of prostate cancer death (3.1% vs 1.3% [MDCS] and 2.3% vs 0.6% [HPFS]). Men at higher genetic risk accounted for 94 of 107 early prostate cancer deaths (88%), of which 36% (95% CI, 12%-60%) were estimated to be preventable through adherence to behaviors associated with a healthy lifestyle (not smoking, healthy weight, high physical activity, and a healthy diet).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this 20-year follow-up study, men with a genetic predisposition accounted for the vast majority of early prostate cancer deaths, of which one-third were estimated to be preventable. This suggests that men at increased genetic risk should be targeted in prostate cancer prevention strategies.

Insights into Ancestral Diversity in Parkinsons Disease Risk: A Comparative Assessment of Polygenic Risk Scores

Objectives To evaluate and compare different polygenic risk score (PRS) models in predicting Parkinsons disease (PD) across diverse ancestries, focusing on identifying the most suitable approach for each population and potentially contributing to equitable advancements in precision medicine. Methods We constructed a total of 105 PRS across individual level data from seven diverse ancestries. First, a cross-ancestry conventional PRS comparison was implemented by utilizing the 90 known European risk loci with weighted effects from four independent summary statistics including European, East Asian, Latino/Admixed American, and African/Admixed. These models were adjusted by sex, age, and principal components (28 PRS) and by sex, age, and percentage of admixture (28 PRS) for comparison. Secondly, a novel and refined multi-ancestry best-fit PRS approach was then applied across the seven ancestries by leveraging multi-ancestry meta-analyzed summary statistics and using a p-value thresholding approach (49 PRS) to enhance prediction applicability in a global setting. Results European-based PRS models predicted disease status across all ancestries to differing degrees of accuracy. Ashkenazi Jewish had the highest Odds Ratio (OR): 1.96 (95% CI: 1.69-2.25, p < 0.0001) with an AUC (Area Under the Curve) of 68%. Conversely, the East Asian population, despite having fewer predictive variants (84 out of 90), had an OR of 1.37 (95% CI: 1.32-1.42) and an AUC of 62%, illustrating the cross-ancestry transferability of this model. Lower OR alongside broader confidence intervals were observed in other populations, including Africans (OR =1.38, 95% CI: 1.12-1.63, p=0.001). Adjustment by percentage of admixture did not outperform principal components. Multi-ancestry best-fit PRS models improved risk prediction in European, Ashkenazi Jewish, and African ancestries, yet didn't surpass conventional PRS in admixed populations such as Latino/American admixed and African admixed populations. Interpretation The present study represents a novel and comprehensive assessment of PRS performance across seven ancestries in PD, highlighting the inadequacy of a 'one size fits all' approach in genetic risk prediction. We demonstrated that European based PD PRS models are partially transferable to other ancestries and could be improved by a novel best-fit multi-ancestry PRS, especially in non-admixed populations.

Prostate Cancer Foundation Screening Guidelines for Black Men in the United States

BACKGROUND

In the United States, Black men are at highest risk for being diagnosed with and dying from prostate cancer. Given this disparity, we examined relevant data to establish clinical prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening guidelines for Black men in the United States.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search identified 1848 unique publications for screening. Of those screened, 287 studies were selected for full-text review, and 264 were considered relevant and form the basis for these guidelines. The numbers were reported according to PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines.

RESULTS

Three randomized controlled trials provided Level 1 evidence that regular PSA screening of men 50 to 74 years of age of average risk reduced metastasis and prostate cancer death at 16 to 22 years of follow-up. The best available evidence specifically for Black men comes from observational and modeling studies that consider age to obtain a baseline PSA, frequency of testing, and age when screening should end. Cohort studies suggest that discussions about baseline PSA testing between Black men and their clinicians should begin in the early 40s, and data from modeling studies indicate prostate cancer develops 3 to 9 years earlier in Black men compared with non-Black men. Lowering the age for baseline PSA testing to 40 to 45 years of age from 50 to 55 years of age, followed by regular screening until 70 years of age (informed by PSA values and health factors), could reduce prostate cancer mortality in Black men (approximately 30% relative risk reduction) without substantially increasing overdiagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

These guidelines recommend that Black men should obtain information about PSA screening for prostate cancer. Among Black men who elect screening, baseline PSA testing should occur between ages 40 and 45. Depending on PSA value and health status, annual screening should be strongly considered. (Supported by the Prostate Cancer Foundation.).

Genome-wide association study and trans-ethnic meta-analysis identify novel susceptibility loci for type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

The genetic basis of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is under-investigated in the Middle East, despite the rapidly growing disease prevalence. We aimed to define the genetic determinants of T2D in Qatar.

METHODS

Using whole genome sequencing of 11,436 participants (2765 T2D cases and 8671 controls) from the population-based Qatar Biobank (QBB), we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of T2D with and without body mass index (BMI) adjustment.

RESULTS

We replicated 93 known T2D-associated loci in a BMI-unadjusted model, while 96 known loci were replicated in a BMI-adjusted model. The effect sizes and allele frequencies of replicated SNPs in the Qatari population generally concurred with those from European populations. We identified a locus specific to our cohort located between the APOBEC3H and CBX7 genes in the BMI-unadjusted model. Also, we performed a transethnic meta-analysis of our cohort with a previous GWAS on T2D in multi-ancestry individuals (180,834 T2D cases and 1,159,055 controls). One locus in DYNC2H1 gene reached genome-wide significance in the meta-analysis. Assessing polygenic risk scores derived from European- and multi-ancestries in the Qatari population showed higher predictive performance of the multi-ancestry panel compared to the European panel.

CONCLUSION

Our study provides new insights into the genetic architecture of T2D in a Middle Eastern population and identifies genes that may be explored further for their involvement in T2D pathogenesis.

Recent advances in polygenic scores: translation, equitability, methods and FAIR tools

Polygenic scores (PGS) can be used for risk stratification by quantifying individuals' genetic predisposition to disease, and many potentially clinically useful applications have been proposed. Here, we review the latest potential benefits of PGS in the clinic and challenges to implementation. PGS could augment risk stratification through combined use with traditional risk factors (demographics, disease-specific risk factors, family history, etc.), to support diagnostic pathways, to predict groups with therapeutic benefits, and to increase the efficiency of clinical trials. However, there exist challenges to maximizing the clinical utility of PGS, including FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) use and standardized sharing of the genomic data needed to develop and recalculate PGS, the equitable performance of PGS across populations and ancestries, the generation of robust and reproducible PGS calculations, and the responsible communication and interpretation of results. We outline how these challenges may be overcome analytically and with more diverse data as well as highlight sustained community efforts to achieve equitable, impactful, and responsible use of PGS in healthcare.

Incorporating Genetic Risk Into Prostate Cancer Care: Implications for Early Detection and Precision Oncology

The availability and cost of germline and somatic genetic testing have dramatically improved over the past two decades, enabling precision medicine approaches in oncology, with significant implications for prostate cancer (PCa) care. Roughly 12% of individuals with advanced disease are carriers of rare pathogenic germline variants that predispose to particularly aggressive and earlier-onset disease. Several of these variants are already established as clinically actionable by modern precision oncology therapeutics, while others may come to aid the selection of active surveillance, definitive local therapies, and systemic therapies. Concurrently, the number of common variants (ie, incorporated into polygenic risk scores) associated with PCa risk has continued to grow, but with several important considerations both at the intersection of race and ancestry and for early detection of aggressive disease. Family history has historically been used as a proxy for this inherited genetic risk of PCa, but recently emerging evidence examining this relation has shifted our understanding of how best to leverage this tool in PCa care. This review seeks to clarify and contextualize the existing and emerging precision oncology paradigms that use inherited genetic risk in PCa care, for both early detection and localized disease management.

Global viewpoints: updates on prostate cancer in Sub-Saharan Africa

Prostate cancer (PCa) is a major health concern in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with high incidence and mortality rates. However, the widely used prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening is not readily available or affordable in SSA. Alternative screening strategies, such as risk stratification approaches and cost-effective PSA tests, are being explored to target high-risk individuals and improve access to screening. Diagnosis of PCa in SSA is challenging due to the lack of access to diagnostic tools and limited healthcare resources. Clinical evaluation and digital rectal examination are commonly used, but PSA testing, magnetic resonance imaging, and biopsy are often limited. As a result, many men in SSA are diagnosed at advanced stages of the disease. Treatment options for PCa in SSA are often limited by a lack of resources and trained healthcare providers. Surgery, radiation therapy, and androgen-deprivation therapy are available but may be inaccessible to many patients. Cultural beliefs and stigma surrounding PCa further impact treatment decisions. Improved patient and community awareness, electronic medical records, and communication between patients and healthcare professionals can enhance evidence-based decision-making and advocate for policy changes. Understanding the genetic determinants and implementing comprehensive strategies can lead to improved outcomes and better control of PCa in SSA.

Characterizing prostate cancer risk through multi-ancestry genome-wide discovery of 187 novel risk variants

The transferability and clinical value of genetic risk scores (GRSs) across populations remain limited due to an imbalance in genetic studies across ancestrally diverse populations. Here we conducted a multi-ancestry genome-wide association study of 156,319 prostate cancer cases and 788,443 controls of European, African, Asian and Hispanic men, reflecting a 57% increase in the number of non-European cases over previous prostate cancer genome-wide association studies. We identified 187 novel risk variants for prostate cancer, increasing the total number of risk variants to 451. An externally replicated multi-ancestry GRS was associated with risk that ranged from 1.8 (per standard deviation) in African ancestry men to 2.2 in European ancestry men. The GRS was associated with a greater risk of aggressive versus non-aggressive disease in men of African ancestry (P = 0.03). Our study presents novel prostate cancer susceptibility loci and a GRS with effective risk stratification across ancestry groups.

Heterogeneous genetic architectures and evolutionary genomics of prostate cancer in Sub-Saharan Africa

Men of African descent have the highest prostate cancer (CaP) incidence and mortality rates, yet the genetic basis of CaP in African men has been understudied. We used genomic data from 3,963 CaP cases and 3,509 controls recruited in Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, and Uganda, to infer ancestry-specific genetic architectures and fine-mapped disease associations. Fifteen independent associations at 8q24.21, 6q22.1, and 11q13.3 reached genome-wide significance, including four novel associations. Intriguingly, multiple lead SNPs are private alleles, a pattern arising from recent mutations and the out-of-Africa bottleneck. These African-specific alleles contribute to haplotypes with odds ratios above 2.4. We found that the genetic architecture of CaP differs across Africa, with effect size differences contributing more to this heterogeneity than allele frequency differences. Population genetic analyses reveal that African CaP associations are largely governed by neutral evolution. Collectively, our findings emphasize the utility of conducting genetic studies that use diverse populations.

Combining Asian and European genome-wide association studies of colorectal cancer improves risk prediction across racial and ethnic populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have great potential to guide precision colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention by identifying those at higher risk to undertake targeted screening. However, current PRS using European ancestry data have sub-optimal performance in non-European ancestry populations, limiting their utility among these populations. Towards addressing this deficiency, we expand PRS development for CRC by incorporating Asian ancestry data (21,731 cases; 47,444 controls) into European ancestry training datasets (78,473 cases; 107,143 controls). The AUC estimates (95% CI) of PRS are 0.63(0.62-0.64), 0.59(0.57-0.61), 0.62(0.60-0.63), and 0.65(0.63-0.66) in independent datasets including 1681-3651 cases and 8696-115,105 controls of Asian, Black/African American, Latinx/Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White, respectively. They are significantly better than the European-centric PRS in all four major US racial and ethnic groups (p-values < 0.05). Further inclusion of non-European ancestry populations, especially Black/African American and Latinx/Hispanic, is needed to improve the risk prediction and enhance equity in applying PRS in clinical practice.

Androgen receptor binding sites enabling genetic prediction of mortality due to prostate cancer in cancer-free subjects

Prostate cancer (PrCa) is the second most common cancer worldwide in males. While strongly warranted, the prediction of mortality risk due to PrCa, especially before its development, is challenging. Here, we address this issue by maximizing the statistical power of genetic data with multi-ancestry meta-analysis and focusing on binding sites of the androgen receptor (AR), which has a critical role in PrCa. Taking advantage of large Japanese samples ever, a multi-ancestry meta-analysis comprising more than 300,000 subjects in total identifies 9 unreported loci including ZFHX3, a tumor suppressor gene, and successfully narrows down the statistically finemapped variants compared to European-only studies, and these variants strongly enrich in AR binding sites. A polygenic risk scores (PRS) analysis restricting to statistically finemapped variants in AR binding sites shows among cancer-free subjects, individuals with a PRS in the top 10% have a strongly higher risk of the future death of PrCa (HR: 5.57, P = 4.2 × 10-10). Our findings demonstrate the potential utility of leveraging large-scale genetic data and advanced analytical methods in predicting the mortality of PrCa.

2022 Update on Prostate Cancer Epidemiology and Risk Factors-A Systematic Review

CONTEXT

Prostate cancer (PCa) is one of the most common cancers worldwide. Understanding the epidemiology and risk factors of the disease is paramount to improve primary and secondary prevention strategies.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review and summarize the current evidence on the descriptive epidemiology, large screening studies, diagnostic techniques, and risk factors of PCa.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

PCa incidence and mortality rates for 2020 were obtained from the GLOBOCAN database of the International Agency for Research on Cancer. A systematic search was performed in July 2022 using PubMed/MEDLINE and EMBASE biomedical databases. The review was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guidelines and was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42022359728).

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Globally, PCa is the second most common cancer, with the highest incidence in North and South America, Europe, Australia, and the Caribbean. Risk factors include age, family history, and genetic predisposition. Additional factors may include smoking, diet, physical activity, specific medications, and occupational factors. As PCa screening has become more accepted, newer approaches such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and biomarkers have been implemented to identify patients who are likely to harbor significant tumors. Limitations of this review include the evidence being derived from meta-analyses of mostly retrospective studies.

CONCLUSIONS

PCa remains the second most common cancer among men worldwide. PCa screening is gaining acceptance and will likely reduce PCa mortality at the cost of overdiagnosis and overtreatment. Increasing use of MRI and biomarkers for the detection of PCa may mitigate some of the negative consequences of screening.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Prostate cancer (PCa) remains the second most common cancer among men, and screening for PCa is likely to increase in the future. Improved diagnostic techniques can help reduce the number of men who need to be diagnosed and treated to save one life. Avoidable risk factors for PCa may include factors such as smoking, diet, physical activity, specific medications, and certain occupations.

Evaluating approaches for constructing polygenic risk scores for prostate cancer in men of African and European ancestry

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (GW-PRSs) have been reported to have better predictive ability than PRSs based on genome-wide significance thresholds across numerous traits. We compared the predictive ability of several GW-PRS approaches to a recently developed PRS of 269 established prostate cancer-risk variants from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping studies (PRS269). GW-PRS models were trained with a large and diverse prostate cancer GWAS of 107,247 cases and 127,006 controls that we previously used to develop the multi-ancestry PRS269. Resulting models were independently tested in 1,586 cases and 1,047 controls of African ancestry from the California Uganda Study and 8,046 cases and 191,825 controls of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and further validated in 13,643 cases and 210,214 controls of European ancestry and 6,353 cases and 53,362 controls of African ancestry from the Million Veteran Program. In the testing data, the best performing GW-PRS approach had AUCs of 0.656 (95% CI = 0.635-0.677) in African and 0.844 (95% CI = 0.840-0.848) in European ancestry men and corresponding prostate cancer ORs of 1.83 (95% CI = 1.67-2.00) and 2.19 (95% CI = 2.14-2.25), respectively, for each SD unit increase in the GW-PRS. Compared to the GW-PRS, in African and European ancestry men, the PRS269 had larger or similar AUCs (AUC = 0.679, 95% CI = 0.659-0.700 and AUC = 0.845, 95% CI = 0.841-0.849, respectively) and comparable prostate cancer ORs (OR = 2.05, 95% CI = 1.87-2.26 and OR = 2.21, 95% CI = 2.16-2.26, respectively). Findings were similar in the validation studies. This investigation suggests that current GW-PRS approaches may not improve the ability to predict prostate cancer risk compared to the PRS269 developed from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping.

Evidence of Novel Susceptibility Variants for Prostate Cancer and a Multiancestry Polygenic Risk Score Associated with Aggressive Disease in Men of African Ancestry

BACKGROUND

Genetic factors play an important role in prostate cancer (PCa) susceptibility.

OBJECTIVE

To discover common genetic variants contributing to the risk of PCa in men of African ancestry.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

We conducted a meta-analysis of ten genome-wide association studies consisting of 19378 cases and 61620 controls of African ancestry.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Common genotyped and imputed variants were tested for their association with PCa risk. Novel susceptibility loci were identified and incorporated into a multiancestry polygenic risk score (PRS). The PRS was evaluated for associations with PCa risk and disease aggressiveness.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Nine novel susceptibility loci for PCa were identified, of which seven were only found or substantially more common in men of African ancestry, including an African-specific stop-gain variant in the prostate-specific gene anoctamin 7 (ANO7). A multiancestry PRS of 278 risk variants conferred strong associations with PCa risk in African ancestry studies (odds ratios [ORs] >3 and >5 for men in the top PRS decile and percentile, respectively). More importantly, compared with men in the 40-60% PRS category, men in the top PRS decile had a significantly higher risk of aggressive PCa (OR = 1.23, 95% confidence interval = 1.10-1.38, p = 4.4 × 10-4).

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the importance of large-scale genetic studies in men of African ancestry for a better understanding of PCa susceptibility in this high-risk population and suggests a potential clinical utility of PRS in differentiating between the risks of developing aggressive and nonaggressive disease in men of African ancestry.

PATIENT SUMMARY

In this large genetic study in men of African ancestry, we discovered nine novel prostate cancer (PCa) risk variants. We also showed that a multiancestry polygenic risk score was effective in stratifying PCa risk, and was able to differentiate risk of aggressive and nonaggressive disease.

Polygenic Scores in the Direct-to-Consumer Setting: Challenges and Opportunities for a New Era in Consumer Genetic Testing

Direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic tests have generated considerable scholarly attention and public intrigue. Although the current consumer genetic testing regime relies on the reporting of individual variants of interest to consumers, there has recently been interest in the possibility of integrating polygenic scores (PGS), which aggregate genetic liability for disease across the entire genome. While PGS have thus far been extensively explored as clinical and public health tools, the use of PGS in consumer genetic testing has not yet received systematic attention, even though they are already in use for some consumer genetic tests. In this narrative review, we highlight the ethical, legal, and social implications of the use of PGS in DTC genetic tests and synthesize existing solutions to these concerns. We organize these concerns into three domains: (1) industry variation; (2) privacy and commercialization; and (3) patient safety and risk. While previously expressed concerns in these domains will remain relevant, the emergence of PGS-based DTC genetic tests raises challenges that will require novel approaches.

Vitamin D and Systems Biology

The biological actions of the vitamin D receptor (VDR) have been investigated intensively for over 100 years and has led to the identification of significant insights into the repertoire of its biological actions. These were initially established to be centered on the regulation of calcium transport in the colon and deposition in bone. Beyond these well-known calcemic roles, other roles have emerged in the regulation of cell differentiation processes and have an impact on metabolism. The purpose of the current review is to consider where applying systems biology (SB) approaches may begin to generate a more precise understanding of where the VDR is, and is not, biologically impactful. Two SB approaches have been developed and begun to reveal insight into VDR biological functions. In a top-down SB approach genome-wide scale data are statistically analyzed, and from which a role for the VDR emerges in terms of being a hub in a biological network. Such approaches have confirmed significant roles, for example, in myeloid differentiation and the control of inflammation and innate immunity. In a bottom-up SB approach, current biological understanding is built into a kinetic model which is then applied to existing biological data to explain the function and identify unknown behavior. To date, this has not been applied to the VDR, but has to the related ERα and identified previously unknown mechanisms of control. One arena where applying top-down and bottom-up SB approaches may be informative is in the setting of prostate cancer health disparities.