Predicting stroke in Asian patients with atrial fibrillation using machine learning: A report from the KERALA-AF registry, with external validation in the APHRS-AF registry

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a significant risk factor for stroke. Based on the higher stroke associated with AF in the South Asian population, we constructed a one-year stroke prediction model using machine learning (ML) methods in KERALA-AF South Asian cohort. External validation was performed in the prospective APHRS-AF registry. We studied 2101 patients and 83 were to patients with stroke in KERALA-AF registry. The random forest showed the best predictive performance in the internal validation with receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) and G-mean of 0.821 and 0.427, respectively. In the external validation, the light gradient boosting machine showed the best predictive performance with AUC and G-mean of 0.670 and 0.083, respectively. We report the first demonstration of ML's applicability in an Indian prospective cohort, although the more modest prediction on external validation in a separate multinational Asian registry suggests the need for ethnic-specific ML models.

Angiotensin Receptor-Neprilysin Inhibitor Therapy and Cardiac Remodeling in Heart Failure: Consensus Statement from India

Adverse cardiac remodeling refers to progressive structural and functional modifications in the heart because of increased wall stress in the myocardium, loss of viable myocardium, and neurohormonal stimulation. The guideline-directed medical therapy for Heart failure (HF) includes Angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI) (sacubitril/valsartan), β-blockers, sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRA). ARNI is under-prescribed in India despite its attractive safety and efficacy profile. Therefore, the consensus discusses objectives and topics related to ARNI in the management of cardiac remodeling, and experts shared their views on the early timely intervention of effective dosage of ARNI to improve the diagnosis and enhance mortality and morbidity benefits in cardiac reverse remodeling (CRR).

Role of Iron Therapy in Heart Failure: A Consensus Statement from India

Iron deficiency (ID) with or without anemia is frequently observed in patients with heart failure (HF). Uncorrected ID is associated with higher hospitalization and mortality in patients with acute HF (AHF) and chronic HF (CHF). Hence, in addition to chronic renal insufficiency, anemia, and diabetes, ID appears as a novel comorbidity and a treatment target of CHF. Intravenous (IV) ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) reduces the hospitalization risk due to HF worsening and improves functional capacity and quality of life (QOL) in HF patients. The current consensus document provides criteria, an expert opinion on the diagnosis of ID in HF, patient profiles for IV FCM, and correct administration and monitoring of such patients.

The Power and Promise of Angiotensin Receptor Neprilysin Inhibitor (ARNI) in Heart Failure Management: National Consensus Statement

;Heart failure (HF) is a huge global public health task due to morbidity, mortality, disturbed quality of life, and major economic burden. It is an area of active research and newer treatment strategies are evolving. Recently angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI), a class of drugs (the first agent in this class, Sacubitril-Valsartan), reduces cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in chronic HF patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Positive therapeutic effects have led to a decrease in cardiovascular mortality and HF hospitalizations (HFH), with a favorable safety profile, and have been documented in several clinical studies with an unquestionable survival benefit with ARNI, Sacubitril-Valsartan. This consensus statement of the Indian group of experts in cardiology, nephrology, and diabetes provides a comprehensive review of the power and promise of ARNI in HF management and an evidence-based appraisal of the use of ARNI as an essential treatment strategy for HF patients in clinical practice. Consensus in this review favors an early utility of Sacubitril-Valsartan in patients with HF with reduced EF (HFrEF), regardless of the previous therapy being given. A lower rate of hospitalizations for HF with Sacubitril-Valsartan in HF patients with preserved EF who are phenotypically heterogeneous suggests possible benefits of ARNI in patients having 40-50% of LVEF, frequent subtle systolic dysfunction, and higher hospitalization risk.

One-year clinical outcome of patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation: Insights from KERALA-AF registry

BACKGROUND

We report patient characteristics, treatment pattern and one-year clinical outcome of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) from Kerala, India. This cohort forms part of Kerala Atrial Fibrillation (KERALA-AF) registry which is an ongoing large prospective study.

METHODS

KERALA-AF registry collected data of adults with previously or newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF) during April 2016 to April 2017. A total of 3421 patients were recruited from 53 hospitals across Kerala state. We analysed one-year follow-up outcome of 2507 patients with NVAF.

RESULTS

Mean age at recruitment was 67.2 years (range 18-98) and 54.8% were males. Main co-morbidities were hypertension (61.2%), hyperlipidaemia (46.2%) and diabetes mellitus (37.2%). Major co-existing diseases were chronic kidney disease (42.1%), coronary artery disease (41.6%), and chronic heart failure (26.4%). Mean CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was 3.18 (SD ± 1.7) and HAS-BLED score, 1.84 (SD ± 1.3). At baseline, use of oral anticoagulants (OAC) was 38.6% and antiplatelets 32.7%. On one-month follow-up use of OAC increased to 65.8% and antiplatelets to 48.3%. One-year all-cause mortality was 16.48 and hospitalization 20.65 per 100 person years. The main causes of death were cardiovascular (75.0%), stroke (13.1%) and others (11.9%). The major causes of hospitalizations were acute coronary syndrome (35.0%), followed by arrhythmia (29.5%) and heart failure (8.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite high risk profile of patients in this registry, use of OAC was suboptimal, whereas antiplatelets were used in nearly half of patients. A relatively high rate of annual mortality and hospitalization was observed in patients with NVAF in Kerala AF Registry.

Cardiological society of India document on safety measure during echo evaluation of cardiovascular disease in the time of COVID-19

An echocardiographic investigation is one of the key modalities of diagnosis in cardiology. There has been a rising presence of cardiological comorbidities in patients positive for COVID-19. Hence, it is becoming extremely essential to look into the correct safety precautions, healthcare professionals must take while conducting an echo investigation. The decision matrix formulated for conducting an echocardiographic evaluation is based on presence or absence of cardiological comorbidity vis-à-vis positive, suspected or negative for COVID-19. The safety measures have been constructed keeping in mind the current safety precautions by WHO, CDC and MoHFW, India.

Kerala acute heart failure registry-Rationale, design and methods

Heart failure (HF) is recognized as a major public health problem in both the low and high- income countries. However, data are scarce on the burden, prevailing practice patterns and long-term health outcomes of HF patients in India. The Kerala heart failure registry (KHFR) is a multi-centric, prospective, and hospital based registry in Kerala, India. Consecutive patients admitted with the diagnosis of acute heart failure satisfying the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) criteria will be enrolled in the registry. Data on demographic, clinical, laboratory, imaging, other diagnostics and therapeutic approaches employed and the usage of guideline based medical therapy will be collected as part of the registry. Additionally, all registered patients will be followed-up regularly at 1-month, and thereafter at every 3-months. Both mortality and hospital admission data will be collected during the follow-up visits. We will be recruiting 7500 HF patients in the KHFR. Once completed, KFHR is going to be the largest HF registry in India. We will validate a HF mortality risk score developed based on a previously conducted Trivandrum Heart Failure Registry in the KHFR patients.