Setbacks in the quest for universal health coverage in Mexico: polarised politics, policy upheaval, and pandemic disruption

2023 marks the 20-year anniversary of the creation of Mexico's System of Social Protection for Health and the Seguro Popular, a model for the global quest to achieve universal health coverage through health system reform. We analyse the success and challenges after 2012, the consequences of reform ageing, and the unique coincidence of systemic reorganisation during the COVID-19 pandemic to identify strategies for health system disaster preparedness. We document that population health and financial protection improved as the Seguro Popular aged, despite erosion of the budget and absent needed reforms. The Seguro Popular closed in January, 2020, and Mexico embarked on a complex, extensive health system reorganisation. We posit that dismantling the Seguro Popular while trying to establish a new programme in 2020-21 made the Mexican health system more vulnerable in the worst pandemic period and shows the precariousness of evidence-based policy making to political polarisation and populism. Reforms should be designed to be flexible yet insulated from political volatility and constructed and managed to be structurally permeable and adaptable to new evidence to face changing health needs. Simultaneously, health systems should be grounded to withstand systemic shocks of politics and natural disasters.

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

BACKGROUND

The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050.

FINDINGS

In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7-8·8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5-0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0-25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied.

INTERPRETATION

Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Public health matters: why is Latin America struggling in addressing the pandemic?

This article examines how Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru addressed the COVID-19 pandemic and the effectiveness of these policy responses from the date each country declared a sanitary emergency, between middle and late March 2020 to the most recent available measurement on 23 September 2020. To analyze how governments responded to the COVID-19 pandemic in these six Latin American countries, we use an index of government response, created by the University of Oxford. To explore the effects of these governmental mitigation policies on reducing social mobility, we use Google mobility reports. We also analyze how these policies may have influenced COVID-19 mortality rates. Overall, the results showed that both timelier and more stringent implementation of the public policies analyzed to address the COVID-19 pandemic seem to be associated with higher mobility reductions and lower mortality rates. We draw five policy lessons from the way each country implemented these mitigation policies. KEY MESSAGE: Timelier and more stringent implementation of these public policies may contribute to a higher mobility reduction in several public spaces and to lower mortality rates. The effectiveness of the closure and containment policies in each Latin American country seem to depend on the degree of compliance of their respective populations and to their socioeconomic living conditions. Economic and social policies of income support and debt relief provided by governments allowed people to comply with closure and containment policies. Health systems should maintain high levels of policy stringency together with effective surveillance through testing policy and contact tracing.