Public health impacts of an imminent Red Sea oil spill

The possibility of a massive oil spill in the Red Sea is increasingly likely. The Safer, a deteriorating oil tanker containing 1.1 million barrels of oil, has been deserted near the coast of Yemen since 2015 and threatens environmental catastrophe to a country presently in a humanitarian crisis. Here, we model the immediate public health impacts of a simulated spill. We estimate that all of Yemen's imported fuel through its key Red Sea ports would be disrupted and that the anticipated spill could disrupt clean-water supply equivalent to the daily use of 9.0-9.9 million people, food supply for 5.7-8.4 million people and 93-100% of Yemen's Red Sea fisheries. We also estimate an increased risk of cardiovascular hospitalization from pollution ranging from 5.8 to 42.0% over the duration of the spill. The spill and its potentially disastrous impacts remain entirely preventable through offloading the oil. Our results stress the need for urgent action to avert this looming disaster.

Health in Yemen: losing ground in war time

BACKGROUND

The effect of the ongoing war in Yemen on maternal and child health (MCH) has not been comprehensively assessed. Providing a situational analysis at the governorate level is critical to assist in planning a response and allocating resources.

METHODS

We used multiple national- and governorate-level data sources to provide estimates of 12 relevant MCH indicators in 2016 around child vaccination, and child and maternal nutritional status, and the change in these estimates for the period 2013-2016 based on shock variables including change in gross domestic product, burden of airstrikes per 1000 population, change in access to untreated water sources and unimproved toilets, and change in wheat flour prices. We also used findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2016 study.

RESULTS

Vaccine coverage decreased for all antigens between 2013 and 2016 among children 12-23 months. The largest decrease, 36·4% for first-dose measles vaccine, was in Aden. Among children under the age of five, incidence of diarrhea was at 7·0 (5·5-8·9) episodes per person-year. The prevalence of moderate and severe child anemia ranged from 50·9% (24·9-73·1) in Sana'a City to 97·8% (94·1-99·2) in Shabwah in 2016. Prevalence of underweight among women of reproductive age ranged from 15·3% (8·1-24·6) in Sana'a city to 32·1% (24·1-39·7) in Hajjah, with a national average of 24·6% (18·7-31·5).

CONCLUSIONS

The war and siege on Yemen has had a devastating impact on the health of women and children. Urgent efforts to secure food, essential medicines, antibiotics, deworming medicine, and hygiene kits, and cold chains for immunization are needed. Yemen is in dire need of clean water and proper sanitation to reduce the spread of disease, especially diarrhea.

Diarrheal Diseases Hospitalization in Yemen before and after Rotavirus Vaccination

The study aims to assess the impact of rotavirus vaccine introduction on diarrheal diseases hospitalization and to identify the rotavirus genotypes most prevalent before and after vaccine introduction among children ≤ 5 years of age. Rotarix™ ® rotavirus vaccine is currently licensed for infants in Yemen and was introduced in 2012. The vaccination course consists of two doses. The first dose is administrated at 6 weeks of age and the second dose is completed by 10 weeks. Based on a longitudinal observational study, we assessed the impact of vaccination on rotavirus hospitalization before and after vaccination among children ≤ 5 years of age at the Yemeni-Swedish Hospital (YSH) in Taiz, Yemen. Prevaccination covered January 2009-July 2012 during which 2335 fecal samples were collected from children ≤ 5 years old. Postvaccination covered January 2013-December 2014 during which 1114 fecal samples were collected. Rotavirus was detected by Enzyme Linkage Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). The incidence of rotavirus hospitalization decreased from 43.79% in 2009 to 10.54% in 2014. Hospitalization due to rotavirus diarrhea was reduced by 75.93%. Vaccine coverage increased from 23% in 2012 to 72% in 2014. Also, the results showed that the most predominant genotypes in prevaccination period were G2P[4] (55.0%), followed by G1P[8] (15.0%), while in postvaccination period G1P[8] (31%) was the predominant genotype, followed by G9P[8] (27.5%). In conclusion, rotavirus vaccination in Yemen resulted in sharp reduction in diarrheal hospitalization. A successful rotavirus vaccination program in Yemen will rely upon efficient vaccine delivery systems and sustained vaccine efficacy against diverse and evolving rotavirus strains.

Overview of cervical cancer screening practices in the extended Middle East and North Africa countries

National Organized Cervical Cancer Screening (NOCCS) programs are lacking in most of the "Extended Middle East and North Africa" (EMENA) countries. Consequently, most cervical cancers are diagnosed late and are associated with high mortality. In fact, in most of these countries, national mortality data are unknown due to the absence of population-based mortality registries. Most countries of the EMENA practice more or less limited opportunistic, cytology-based, screening tests, which often lack quality assurance and follow-up care. A few countries, within the initiation of a National Cancer Control Plan, have just started to implement organized screening programs using, for cervical cancer detection, visual inspection with acetic acid (Morocco) or cytology (Turkey). Moreover, most countries of the EMENA lack national guideline, as well as resources for the management of abnormal cytologic screening (or any other screening test). The main obstacle for the implementation of NOCCS is a lack of political understanding to support such public health programs and provide the necessary resources. Other obstacles that hinder the participation of women in cervical screening include a lack of knowledge of the disease, socio-religious and cultural barriers, and geographic and economic difficulties in accessing medical services. These countries are already convinced that prevention of cervical cancers in women who have cervical intraepithelial neoplasia is possible through various screening and treatment algorithms, but most countries still need to invest in well organized programs that can reduce cervical cancer incidence and mortality in women. This article forms part of a regional report entitled "Comprehensive Control of HPV Infections and Related Diseases in the Extended Middle East and North Africa Region" Vaccine Volume 31, Supplement 6, 2013. Updates of the progress in the field are presented in a separate monograph entitled "Comprehensive Control of HPV Infections and Related Diseases" Vaccine Volume 30, Supplement 5, 2012.

Human papillomavirus vaccine delivery strategies that achieved high coverage in low- and middle-income countries

OBJECTIVE

To assess human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage after demonstration projects conducted in India, Peru, Uganda and Viet Nam by PATH and national governments and to explore the reasons for vaccine acceptance or refusal.

METHODS

Vaccines were delivered through schools or health centres or in combination with other health interventions, and either monthly or through campaigns at fixed time points. Using a two-stage cluster sample design, the authors selected households in demonstration project areas and interviewed over 7000 parents or guardians of adolescent girls to assess coverage and acceptability. They defined full vaccination as the receipt of all three vaccine doses and used an open-ended question to explore acceptability.

FINDINGS

Vaccination coverage in school-based programmes was 82.6% (95% confidence interval, CI: 79.3-85.6) in Peru, 88.9% (95% CI: 84.7-92.4) in 2009 in Uganda and 96.1% (95% CI: 93.0-97.8) in 2009 in Viet Nam. In India, a campaign approach achieved 77.2% (95% CI: 72.4-81.6) to 87.8% (95% CI: 84.3-91.3) coverage, whereas monthly delivery achieved 68.4% (95% CI: 63.4-73.4) to 83.3% (95% CI: 79.3-87.3) coverage. More than two thirds of respondents gave as reasons for accepting the HPV vaccine that: (i) it protects against cervical cancer; (ii) it prevents disease, or (iii) vaccines are good. Refusal was more often driven by programmatic considerations (e.g. school absenteeism) than by opposition to the vaccine.

CONCLUSION

High coverage with HPV vaccine among young adolescent girls was achieved through various delivery strategies in the developing countries studied. Reinforcing positive motivators for vaccine acceptance is likely to facilitate uptake.

Herpes zoster and exposure to the varicella zoster virus in an era of varicella vaccination

OBJECTIVES

We performed a case-control study to determine if participants with herpes zoster had fewer contacts with persons with varicella or zoster, and with young children, to explore the hypothesis that exposure to persons with varicella zoster virus (VZV) results in "immune boosting."

METHODS

Participants were patients of the multispecialty Marshfield Clinic in Wisconsin. We identified patients aged 40 to 79 years with a new diagnosis of zoster from August 2000 to July 2005. We frequency matched control participants to case participants for age. We confirmed diagnoses by chart review and assessed exposures by interview.

RESULTS

Interviews were completed by 633 of 902 eligible case participants (70.2%) and 655 of 1149 control participants (57.0%). The number of varicella contacts was not associated with zoster; there was no trend even at the highest exposure level (3 or more contacts). Similarly, there was no association with exposure to persons with zoster or to children, or with workplace exposures.

CONCLUSIONS

Although exposure to VZV in our study was relatively low, the absence of a relationship with zoster reflects the uncertain influence of varicella circulation on zoster epidemiology.

Impact of varicella vaccine on varicella-zoster virus dynamics

The licensure and recommendation of varicella vaccine in the mid-1990s in the United States have led to dramatic declines in varicella incidence and varicella-related deaths and hospitalizations. Varicella outbreaks remain common and occur increasingly in highly vaccinated populations. Breakthrough varicella in vaccinated individuals is characteristically mild, typically with fewer lesions that frequently do not progress to a vesicular stage. As such, the laboratory diagnosis of varicella has grown increasingly important, particularly in outbreak settings. In this review the impact of varicella vaccine on varicella-zoster virus (VZV) disease, arising complications in the effective diagnosis and monitoring of VZV transmission, and the relative strengths and limitations of currently available laboratory diagnostic techniques are all addressed. Since disease symptoms often resolve in outbreak settings before suitable test specimens can be obtained, the need to develop new diagnostic approaches that rely on alternative patient samples is also discussed.

Monkeypox or varicella? Lessons from a rash outbreak investigation in the Republic of the Congo

Monkeypox virus and varicellazoster virus (VZV) cause visually similar rash illnesses. Monkeypox is more virulent, with fatality rates up to 10%. In June 2007, reports were received of a rash illness outbreak in isolated villages in Likouala district, Republic of the Congo. Blood specimens were obtained from 142 individuals reporting rash illness between January and September 2007 from four villages in Likouala. Thirty-seven cases of probable VZV were identified based on low VZV IgG avidity; cases occurred in all four villages. No probable monkeypox cases with orthopoxvirus-positive IgM responses were observed; however, three possible monkeypox cases, in individuals < 26 years of age, with rash illness occurring > 56 days before sampling and positive orthopoxvirus-specific IgG responses, were identified. Remoteness and delays in reporting limited collection of acute diagnostic specimens. Improvements in rash illness surveillance and infection control, through training of health workers and timely acquisition of diagnostic specimens, are being undertaken.

Transmission of atypical varicella-zoster virus infections involving palm and sole manifestations in an area with monkeypox endemicity

During a suspected monkeypox outbreak in the Republic of Congo, we documented transmission of varicella-zoster virus (VZV) infection with palm and sole manifestations among 5 family members. Genotyping results confirmed the VZV strain European E2, a genotype not previously reported in Africa. VZV with palm and sole involvement should be considered when differentiating a monkeypox diagnosis.

Herpes zoster vaccination among adults aged 60 years or older in the United States, 2007: uptake of the first new vaccine to target seniors

BACKGROUND

Approximately one million new cases of shingles (herpes zoster [HZ]), a severely painful and debilitating disease caused by reactivation of varicella-zoster virus (VZV), occur in the United States each year. HZ incidence increases with age, especially after age 50. A vaccine to prevent HZ and its sequelae was licensed in May 2006 for those aged 60 years or older, making it the first new vaccine targeted to this age group in many years. In October 2006 the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended HZ vaccination of persons aged > or =60 years; these recommendations were published in 2008. We examined HZ vaccination coverage among persons aged > or =60 years in the U.S. in 2007, and evaluated factors affecting the uptake of HZ vaccine in this population.

METHODS

Data from the 2007 National Immunization Survey-Adult (NIS-Adult) restricted to individuals aged > or =60 years were analyzed using SUDAAN software to estimate national HZ vaccination coverage, and reasons for not receiving the HZ vaccine. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to identify factors independently associated with HZ vaccination.

RESULTS

Of 3662 respondents, 1.9% (95% confidence interval=1.3%, 2.8%) reported having received the HZ vaccine. A total of 72.9% of respondents were unaware of the HZ vaccine but 77.8% stated that they would accept HZ vaccination if their doctor recommended it. Of the remaining 556 respondents, key reasons reported for not accepting HZ vaccine included 'vaccination not needed' (34.8%), 'not at risk' (12.5%), and 'don't trust in doctors or medicine' (9.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Soon after its availability in the United States, coverage among adults recommended to receive the HZ vaccine was low. Our data provide evidence that the lack of patient awareness and of physician recommendations were barriers to vaccine uptake.

Changing varicella epidemiology in active surveillance sites--United States, 1995-2005

Significant reductions in varicella incidence were reported from 1995 to 2000 in the varicella active surveillance sites of Antelope Valley (AV), California, and West Philadelphia (WP), Pennsylvania. We examined incidence rates, median age, and vaccination status of case patients for 1995-2005. Coverage data were from the National Immunization Survey. By 2005, coverage among children 19-35 months of age reached 92% (AV) and 94% (WP); 57% and 64% of case patients in AV and WP, respectively, were vaccinated; and varicella incidence declined by 89.8% in AV and 90.4% in WP. Incidence declined in all age groups, especially among children <10 years of age in both sites and among adolescents 10-14 years of age in WP. In AV, since 2000, the incidence among adolescents 10-14 and 15-19 years of age increased. Implementation of school requirements through 10th grade in WP may explain the differences in the decline in incidence among adolescents. Continued surveillance will be important to monitor the impact that the 2-dose vaccine policy in children has on varicella epidemiology.

One dose of varicella vaccine does not prevent school outbreaks: is it time for a second dose?

OBJECTIVES

The implementation of a routine childhood varicella vaccination program in the United States in 1995 has resulted in a dramatic decline in varicella morbidity and mortality. Although disease incidence has decreased, outbreaks of varicella continue to be reported, increasingly in highly vaccinated populations. In 2000, a varicella vaccination requirement was introduced for kindergarten entry in Arkansas. In October 2003, large numbers of varicella cases were reported in a school with high vaccination coverage. We investigated this outbreak to examine transmission patterns of varicella in this highly vaccinated population, to estimate the effectiveness of 1 dose of varicella vaccine, to identify risk factors for vaccine failure, and to implement outbreak control measures.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study involving students attending an elementary school was conducted. A questionnaire was distributed to parents of all of the students in the school to collect varicella disease and vaccination history; parents of varicella case patients were interviewed by telephone. A case of varicella was defined as an acute, generalized, maculopapulovesicular rash without other apparent cause in a student or staff member in the school from September 1 to November 20, 2003. Varicella among vaccinated persons was defined as varicella-like rash that developed >42 days after vaccination. In vaccinated persons, the rash may be atypical, maculopapular with few or no vesicles. Cases were laboratory confirmed by polymerase chain reaction, and genotyping was performed to identify the strain associated with the outbreak.

RESULTS

Of the 545 students who attended the school, 88% returned the questionnaire. Overall varicella vaccination coverage was 96%. Forty-nine varicella cases were identified; 43 were vaccinated. Three of 6 specimens tested were positive by polymerase chain reaction. The median age at vaccination of vaccinated students in the school was 18 months, and the median time since vaccination was 59 months. Forty-four cases occurred in the East Wing, where 275 students in grades kindergarten through 2 were located, and vaccination coverage was 99%. In this wing, varicella attack rates among unvaccinated and vaccinated students were 100% and 18%, respectively. Vaccine effectiveness against varicella of any severity was 82% and 97% for moderate/severe varicella. Vaccinated cases were significantly milder compared with unvaccinated cases. Among the case patients in the East Wing, the median age at vaccination was 18.5 and 14 months among non-case patients. Four cases in the West Wing did not result in further transmission in that wing. The Arkansas strains were the same as the common varicella-zoster virus strain circulating in the United States (European varicella-zoster virus strain).

CONCLUSIONS

Although disease was mostly mild, the outbreak lasted for approximately 2 months, suggesting that varicella in vaccinated persons was contagious and that 99% varicella vaccination coverage was not sufficient to prevent the outbreak. This investigation highlights several challenges related to the prevention and control of varicella outbreaks with the 1-dose varicella vaccination program and the need for further prevention of varicella through improved vaccine-induced immunity with a routine 2-dose vaccination program. The challenges include: 1-dose varicella vaccination not providing sufficient herd immunity levels to prevent outbreaks in school settings where exposure can be intense, the effective transmission of varicella among vaccinated children, and the difficulty in the diagnosis of mild cases in vaccinated persons and early recognition of outbreaks for implementing control measures. The efficacy of 2 doses of varicella vaccine compared with 1 dose was assessed in a trial conducted among healthy children who were followed for 10 years. The efficacy for 2 doses was significantly higher than for 1 dose of varicella vaccine. This higher efficacy translated into a 3.3-fold lower risk of developing varicella >42 days after vaccination in 2- vs 1-dose recipients. Of the children receiving 2 doses, 99% achieved a glycoprotein-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay level of > or =5 units (considered a correlate of protection) 6 weeks after vaccination compared with 86% of children who received 1 dose. The 6-week glycoprotein-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay level of > or =5 units has been shown to be a good surrogate for protection from natural disease. Ten years after the implementation of the varicella vaccination program, disease incidence has declined dramatically, and vaccination coverage has increased greatly. However, varicella outbreaks continue to occur among vaccinated persons. Although varicella disease among vaccinated persons is mild, they are contagious and able to sustain transmission. As a step toward better control of varicella outbreaks and to reduce the impact on schools and public health officials, in June 2005, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommended the use of a second dose of varicella vaccine in outbreak settings. Early recognition of outbreaks is important to effectively implement a 2-dose vaccination response and to prevent more cases. Although the current recommendation of providing a second dose of varicella vaccine during an outbreak offers a tool for controlling outbreaks, a routine 2-dose recommendation would be more effective at preventing cases. Based on published data on immunogenicity and efficacy of 2 doses of varicella vaccine, routine 2-dose vaccination will provide improved protection against disease and further reduce morbidity and mortality from varicella.

Uptake of varicella vaccination among young children in the United States: a success story in eliminating racial and ethnic disparities

OBJECTIVE

To examine uptake of varicella vaccine, a live attenuated vaccine licensed in 1995 and recommended in 1996 for routine vaccination of US children 12 to 18 months of age.

METHODS

Data were for 178,616 children (19-35 months of age) and were collected in the 1997 to 2004 National Immunization Survey. The main outcome measures were estimated varicella vaccine coverage from 1997 to 2004, coverage among susceptible children (ie, those without a history of varicella disease), racial/ethnic disparities, risk factors for nonvaccination, missed opportunities to vaccinate simultaneously with other recommended vaccines, and projected increases in coverage after elimination of missed opportunities for simultaneous vaccination.

RESULTS

Varicella vaccine coverage rates increased from 26% in 1997 to 87% in 2004. State-specific coverage rates increased 44 to 80 percentage points and were >80% in 42 states and >90% in 13 states by 2004. Coverage among susceptible children increased from 62% in 1999 to 88% in 2004. From 1998 onward, no statistically significant differences in coverage were found between white and black children, whereas Hispanic children had higher coverage rates than white children in 1998 to 2001 and 2004. Risk factors for undervaccination included living in the Midwest region, living in a household with >1 child, living in nonmetropolitan areas, living below the poverty level, having a mother who did not have a college degree, and having public providers. If missed opportunities for simultaneous vaccination had been eliminated, then coverage rates would have increased from 58% to 94% in 1999 and from 87% to 96% in 2004.

CONCLUSIONS

Uptake of varicella vaccine has been steady and is an example of successful elimination of racial and ethnic disparities. Additional focus should be placed on reducing missed opportunities for simultaneous vaccination, improving coverage in rural areas and the Midwest region, and closing remaining gaps related to maternal education, provider type, and multiple-children households.

Increasing evidence of immunity to varicella among children in Massachusetts, 1999-2003

BACKGROUND

Experiences with vaccine-preventable diseases have demonstrated the success of school-entry requirements in increasing vaccination coverage and decreasing disease incidence. This study examines the effect of early implementation of daycare and school-entry requirements for varicella vaccination on recorded varicella immunity of preschool and school-aged children in Massachusetts.

METHODS

Immunization surveys were conducted in licensed child care centers and schools with kindergarten and/or 7th grades. Evidence of immunity to varicella was defined as having physician verified records of varicella vaccination or disease history from the 1999-2000 through 2003-2004 school years.

RESULTS

During the 5-year study period, physician-certified reliable history of varicella disease decreased in each grade level while vaccination coverage increased. The increase in the number of children in each grade level receiving varicella vaccine led to an increase in the overall percentage of children with evidence of immunity to varicella: 85% to 97% for children aged 2 years or more in child care, 93% to 98% for children in kindergarten, and 88% to 92% for children in 7th grade.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of daycare and school-entry requirements for varicella vaccination within 4 years of the start of the varicella vaccination program in Massachusetts was associated with high levels of vaccination coverage in the cohorts of children targeted by the requirements. Although evidence of immunity from varicella disease decreased during the study period, the increase in varicella vaccination coverage compensated for the decline in disease history, resulting in a higher proportion of young children with evidence of immunity to varicella.

Impact of varicella vaccination on health care utilization

CONTEXT

Since varicella vaccine was first recommended for routine immunization in the United States in 1995, the incidence of disease has dropped substantially. However, national surveillance data are incomplete, and comprehensive data regarding outpatient as well as hospital utilization have not been reported.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the impact of the varicella vaccination program on medical visits and associated expenditures.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

Retrospective population-based study examining the trends in varicella health care utilization, based on data from the MarketScan databases, which include enrollees (children and adults) of more than 100 health insurance plans of approximately 40 large US employers, from 1994 to 2002.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Trends in rates of varicella-related hospitalizations and ambulatory visits and direct medical expenditures for hospitalizations and ambulatory visits, analyzed using 1994 and 1995 as the prevaccination baseline.

RESULTS

From the prevaccination period to 2002, hospitalizations due to varicella declined by 88% (from 2.3 to 0.3 per 100,000 population) and ambulatory visits declined by 59% (from 215 to 89 per 100,000 population). Hospitalizations and ambulatory visits declined in all age groups, with the greatest declines among infants younger than 1 year. Total estimated direct medical expenditures for varicella hospitalizations and ambulatory visits declined by 74%, from an average of 84.9 million dollars in 1994 and 1995 to 22.1 million dollars in 2002.

CONCLUSION

Since the introduction of the varicella vaccination program, varicella hospitalizations, ambulatory visits, and their associated expenditures have declined dramatically among all age groups in the United States.

The incidence of varicella and herpes zoster in Massachusetts as measured by the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) during a period of increasing varicella vaccine coverage, 1998-2003

BACKGROUND

The authors sought to monitor the impact of widespread varicella vaccination on the epidemiology of varicella and herpes zoster. While varicella incidence would be expected to decrease, mathematical models predict an initial increase in herpes zoster incidence if re-exposure to varicella protects against reactivation of the varicella zoster virus.

METHODS

In 1998-2003, as varicella vaccine uptake increased, incidence of varicella and herpes zoster in Massachusetts was monitored using the random-digit-dial Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System.

RESULTS

Between 1998 and 2003, varicella incidence declined from 16.5/1,000 to 3.5/1,000 (79%) overall with > or = 66% decreases for all age groups except adults (27% decrease). Age-standardized estimates of overall herpes zoster occurrence increased from 2.77/1,000 to 5.25/1,000 (90%) in the period 1999-2003, and the trend in both crude and adjusted rates was highly significant (p < 0.001). Annual age-specific rates were somewhat unstable, but all increased, and the trend was significant for the 25-44 year and 65+ year age groups.

CONCLUSION

As varicella vaccine coverage in children increased, the incidence of varicella decreased and the occurrence of herpes zoster increased. If the observed increase in herpes zoster incidence is real, widespread vaccination of children is only one of several possible explanations. Further studies are needed to understand secular trends in herpes zoster before and after use of varicella vaccine in the United States and other countries.

Incidence of Herpes Zoster, Before and After Varicella‐Vaccination–Associated Decreases in the Incidence of Varicella, 1992–2002

BACKGROUND

Varicella zoster virus (VZV) causes varicella and, later in the life of the host, may reactivate to cause herpes zoster (HZ). Because it is hypothesized that exposure to varicella may boost immunity to latent VZV, the vaccination-associated decrease in varicella disease has led some to suggest that the incidence of HZ might increase. We assessed the impact that varicella vaccination has on the incidence of varicella and of HZ.

METHODS

Codes for cases of varicella and of HZ in an HMO were determined in automated databases of inpatients and outpatients, on the basis of the Ninth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases. We calculated the incidence, during 1992-2002, of varicella and of HZ.

RESULTS

The incidence of HZ remained stable as the incidence of varicella decreased. Age-adjusted and -specific annual incidence rates of varicella decreased steadily, starting with 1999. The age-adjusted rates decreased from 2.63 cases/1000 person-years during 1995 to 0.92 cases/1000 person-years during 2002; among children 1-4 years old, there was a 75% decrease between 1992-1996 and 2002. Age-adjusted and -specific annual incidence rates of HZ fluctuated slightly over time; the age-adjusted rate was highest, at 4.05 cases/1000 person-years, in 1992, and was 3.71 cases/1000 person-years in 2002.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings revealed that the vaccination-associated decrease in varicella disease did not result in an increase in the incidence of HZ. These early findings will have to be confirmed as the incidence of varicella disease continues to decrease.

Vaccine effectiveness during a varicella outbreak among schoolchildren: Utah, 2002-2003

OBJECTIVES

In the context of a chickenpox outbreak involving 2 Utah elementary schools, we conducted an investigation to assess vaccine effectiveness, describe illness severity, and examine risk factors for breakthrough varicella (ie, varicella in those who have been vaccinated).

METHODS

All parents were asked to complete a questionnaire about their child's medical history. Parents of children with recent varicella were interviewed, and vaccination records were verified. Lesions were submitted for polymerase chain reaction testing.

RESULTS

Questionnaires were returned for 558 (93%) of 597 students in school A and 924 (97%) of 952 students in school B. A total of 83 schoolchildren (57 unvaccinated and 26 vaccinated) had varicella during the October 2002 through February 2003 outbreak period. An additional 17 cases occurred among household contacts, including infants and adults. Polymerase chain reaction analysis recovered wild-type varicella. Vaccine effectiveness was 87%. With 1 notable exception, vaccinated children tended to have milder illness. Risk factors for breakthrough varicella included eczema, vaccination > or =5 years before the outbreak, and vaccination at < or =18 months of age. Restricting analysis to children vaccinated > or =5 years before the outbreak, those vaccinated at < or =18 months of age were more likely to develop breakthrough varicella (relative risk: 9.3; 95% confidence interval: 1.3-68.9).

CONCLUSIONS

The vaccine, administered by >100 health care providers to 571 children during a 7-year time period, was effective. Risk factors for breakthrough varicella suggest some degree of biological interaction between age at vaccination and time since vaccination.

Importance of catch-up vaccination: experience from a varicella outbreak, Maine, 2002-2003

OBJECTIVE

During December 2002 to January 2003, a varicella outbreak occurred in an elementary school in Maine. Just 1 month before detecting the outbreak, Maine implemented varicella vaccine requirements for child care but did not require vaccination for school entry. We investigated this outbreak to examine reasons for its occurrence, including vaccine failure.

METHODS

A self-administered questionnaire was sent to all students' parents to determine student disease status, medical conditions, and vaccination status, which was further confirmed by review of medical records. Parental reporting of chickenpox/varicella that occurred since September 1, 2002, in a student who attended the school was used to define a case. Parents of cases were interviewed by telephone about disease characteristics. Disease severity was classified on the basis of the number of skin lesions and the occurrence of complications. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated by comparing varicella attack rates for any disease, for moderate to severe disease, and for severe disease among vaccinated and unvaccinated students.

RESULTS

We obtained complete information for 296 (81%) of 364 students. Varicella vaccine coverage was 74% overall and decreased by grade, from 90% in kindergarten to 60% in third grade. Attack rates increased significantly from 14% in kindergarten to 37% in third grade. Of the 53 varicella cases, 36 (68%) were unvaccinated, 12 (22%) were vaccinated, and 5 (10%) had previous disease history. Vaccine effectiveness was 89% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 79-94%) against disease of any severity, 96% (95% CI: 88-99%) against moderate to severe disease, and 100% (95% CI: undefined) against severe disease. Twenty-two percent of unvaccinated students had severe disease and 1 was hospitalized for a skin infection, whereas none of the vaccinated cases reported severe disease.

CONCLUSION

This outbreak was attributable primarily to failure to vaccinate, especially among children in grades 1 through 3. Catch-up vaccination of susceptible older children and adolescents is especially important to prevent accumulation of susceptibility in these groups, in which the natural disease is more severe. School entry requirements will contribute to a more rapid implementation of the existing recommendations for vaccination.

Decline in mortality due to varicella after implementation of varicella vaccination in the United States

BACKGROUND

Varicella disease has been preventable in the United States since 1995. Starting in 1999, active and passive surveillance data showed sharp decreases in varicella disease. We reviewed national death records to assess the effect of the vaccination program on mortality associated with varicella.

METHODS

Data on deaths for which varicella was listed as an underlying or contributing cause were obtained from National Center for Health Statistics Multiple Cause-of-Death Mortality Data for 1990 through 2001. We calculated the numbers and rates of death due to varicella according to age, sex, race, ethnic background, and birthplace.

RESULTS

The rate of death due to varicella fluctuated from 1990 through 1998 and then declined sharply. For the interval from 1990 through 1994, the average number of varicella-related deaths was 145 per year (varicella was listed as the underlying cause in 105 deaths and as a contributing cause in 40); it then declined to 66 per year during 1999 through 2001. For deaths for which varicella was listed as the underlying cause, age-adjusted mortality rates dropped by 66 percent, from an average of 0.41 death per 1 million population during 1990 through 1994 to 0.14 during 1999 through 2001 (P<0.001). This decline was observed in all age groups under 50 years, with the greatest reduction (92 percent) among children 1 to 4 years of age. In addition, by the period from 1999 through 2001, the average rates of mortality due to varicella among all racial and ethnic groups were below 0.15 per 1 million population, as compared with rates ranging from 0.37 per 1 million for whites to 0.66 per 1 million for other races in the period from 1990 through 1994.

CONCLUSIONS

The program of universal childhood vaccination against varicella in the United States has resulted in a sharp decline in the rate of death due to varicella.

Chickenpox or Smallpox: The Use of the Febrile Prodrome as a Distinguishing Characteristic

BACKGROUND

The ability to differentiate chickenpox from smallpox is important for early recognition of bioterrorism events and prevention of false alarms. The febrile prodrome is a clinical feature used to differentiate these conditions. However, the prevalence of prodromal manifestations in chickenpox has not been well established.

METHODS

We evaluated prodrome characteristics of all chickenpox cases identified through an active varicella surveillance program over a 21-month period. The frequencies of various prodromal manifestations among vaccinated and unvaccinated case patients were assessed, and the impact of other demographic features on these manifestations was evaluated. Data were analyzed to determine what proportion met the smallpox febrile prodrome criteria as elaborated in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention algorithm for evaluating patients suspected of having smallpox. Finally, we compared our data with historical data on smallpox prodromes.

RESULTS

Data on prodrome characteristics were available for 932 chickenpox cases. Prodromal fever was present in 37% of unvaccinated chickenpox case patients and in 25% of vaccinated case patients. Among unvaccinated case patients, adults were 70% more likely than children to have fever in the prodrome period. We found that prodromes are less common and less severe in chickenpox than in smallpox. Nevertheless, 7%-17% of unvaccinated chickenpox case patients meet the smallpox febrile prodrome criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

Febrile prodromes occur in a significant proportion of patients with chickenpox, particularly among unvaccinated case patients and adults. Therefore, the febrile prodrome alone is not a sufficient marker of smallpox risk. All major and minor smallpox criteria should be considered together in assessing the likelihood of smallpox.

High rate of varicella complications among Mexican-born adults in Alabama

OBJECTIVE

Our study examines risk factors for severe varicella in an outbreak among Mexican-born adults, and it compares susceptibility to infection and reliability of self-reported varicella history for these individuals with that for adults born in the United States in the outbreak locale, which may guide vaccination strategies.

METHODS

We interviewed case patients and non-case persons in the affected apartment complex and workplace, assessed disease history and susceptibility by testing for varicella-zoster virus immunoglobulin G antibodies, and reviewed the clinical data of case patients.

RESULTS

Five of 18 case patients had serious complications for which they sought medical care; 1 was hospitalized for pneumonia, and 1 was hospitalized for Guillain-Barré syndrome. Only intense exposure (e.g., sharing a bed) was marginally associated with severe disease (P=.08). In the workplace, varicella susceptibility was higher among Mexican-born workers (20%) than among workers born in the United States (3%) (adjusted prevalence odds ratio, 5.4; 95% confidence interval, 2.3-14.8). Mexican-born persons had the highest positive predictive value of self-reported disease (100%) in predicting immunity, and those born in the United States had the lowest negative predictive value of self-reported history (10%) in predicting susceptibility.

CONCLUSIONS

Varicella is a more serious disease among adults than among children, and Mexican-born adults living in the United States might have a higher risk of acquiring varicella than US-born adults. Varicella outbreaks involving adults should be prioritized for control efforts. Outbreaks can be prevented by vaccinating susceptible adults.

Contagiousness of varicella in vaccinated cases: a household contact study

CONTEXT

Limited data are available on the contagiousness of vaccinated varicella cases.

OBJECTIVES

To describe secondary attack rates within households according to disease history and vaccination status of the primary case and household contacts and to estimate varicella vaccine effectiveness.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

Population-based, active varicella surveillance project in a community of approximately 320,000 in Los Angeles County, California, during 1997 and 2001. Varicella cases were reported by child care centers, private and public schools, and health care clinicians and were investigated to collect demographic, clinical, medical, and vaccination data. Information on household contacts' age, varicella history, and vaccination status was collected.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Varicella secondary attack rate among household contacts; vaccine effectiveness using secondary attack rates in unvaccinated and vaccinated children and adolescents.

RESULTS

A total of 6316 varicella cases were reported. Among children and adolescents aged 1 to 14 years, secondary attack rates varied according to age and by disease and vaccination status of the primary case and exposed household contacts. Among contacts aged 1 to 14 years exposed to unvaccinated cases, the secondary attack rate was 71.5% if they were unvaccinated and 15.1% if they were vaccinated (risk ratio [RR], 0.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.15-0.30). Overall, vaccinated cases were half as contagious as unvaccinated cases. However, vaccinated cases with 50 lesions or more were similarly contagious as unvaccinated cases whereas those with fewer than 50 lesions were only one third as contagious (secondary attack rate, 23.4%; RR, 0.32 [95% CI, 0.19-0.53]). Vaccine effectiveness for prevention of all disease was 78.9% (95% CI, 69.7%-85.3%); moderate disease, 92% (50-500 lesions) and 100% (clinician visit); and severe disease, 100%.

CONCLUSIONS

Under conditions of intense exposure, varicella vaccine was highly effective in preventing moderate and severe disease and about 80% effective in preventing all disease. Breakthrough varicella cases in household settings were half as contagious as unvaccinated persons with varicella, although contagiousness varied with numbers of lesions.

A retrospective cohort study of the association of varicella vaccine failure with asthma, steroid use, age at vaccination, and measles-mumps-rubella vaccination

OBJECTIVE

Varicella breakthrough, the occurrence of varicella disease >42 days after vaccination, is indicative of vaccination failure. A sevenfold increased risk of breakthrough among vaccinated children with asthma was observed in a 1996 varicella outbreak in a child care center. More recent outbreak investigations have also identified age at vaccination as a potential risk factor for breakthrough. We assessed the association of varicella breakthrough with asthma, steroids, age at varicella vaccination, and timing of measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study among children born after 1993 and followed up through 1999 at 2 health maintenance organizations ([HMOs] A and B) in the United States. Information was obtained from automated vaccination, clinic, hospital discharge, and pharmacy records.

RESULTS

We identified 268 and 97 breakthrough cases among 80 584 and 8181 children vaccinated against varicella at HMOs A and B, respectively. Varicella breakthrough was not associated with asthma, inhaled steroids prescribed at any time, and oral steroids prescribed before vaccination. An increased risk of varicella breakthrough was found in the 3 months immediately after prescription for oral steroids at HMO A (adjusted relative risk [aRR]: 2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.3-4.4) and HMO B (aRR: 2.8; 95% CI: 1.0-7.8), when varicella vaccine was given before 15 months of age at HMO A (aRR: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.1-1.9), and when varicella vaccination followed MMR vaccine within 28 days at HMO A (aRR: 3.1; 95% CI: 1.5-6.4).

CONCLUSIONS

Varicella vaccine failure in children was not associated with asthma or the use of inhaled steroids, but with the use of oral steroids. Administration of varicella vaccine before the age of 15 months may be associated with a slightly increased risk of breakthrough disease. As currently recommended, varicella vaccination should not be administered for 28 days after MMR vaccination.

Second varicella infections: are they more common than previously thought?

OBJECTIVE

To describe the epidemiology and clinical characteristics of varicella reinfections reported to a surveillance project.

METHODS

We investigated varicella cases reported to a surveillance project between January 1, 1995, and December 31, 1999--with more extensive investigation of cases reporting previous varicella with onset between January 1, 1998, and September 30, 1998--to provide a more detailed description of first and second varicella infections. A simple decision tree was used to assess the likelihood that reported first and second infections were varicella.

RESULTS

Among varicella cases reported to the surveillance project, 4.5% of cases in 1995 and 13.3% of cases in 1999 reported previous varicella. More than 95% of first infections were physician diagnosed, epidemiologically linked to another case, or had a rash description consistent with varicella; the same was true for reported second infections. People who reported reinfections were generally healthy. There was a family history of repeat infections in 45% of people who reported reinfections.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical varicella reinfections may occur more commonly than previously thought. Additional studies of the predictive value of a positive varicella history and laboratory studies of reported reinfections are indicated to guide varicella vaccination policy.

Varicella disease after introduction of varicella vaccine in the United States, 1995-2000

CONTEXT

Before licensure of varicella vaccine in 1995, varicella was a universal childhood disease in the United States, causing 4 million cases, 11,000 hospitalizations, and 100 deaths every year.

OBJECTIVE

To examine population-based disease surveillance data in 3 communities to document the impact of the varicella vaccination program.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND SUBJECTS

Active surveillance for varicella conducted among the populations of Antelope Valley, Calif; Travis County, Tex; and West Philadelphia, Pa; from January 1, 1995, to December 31, 2000. Reporting sites included child care centers, schools, universities, physicians, public health clinics, hospitals, emergency departments, and households.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Trends in number and rate of varicella cases and hospitalizations; varicella vaccine coverage.

RESULTS

From 1995 through 1998, in each surveillance area, the number of verified varicella cases varied from year to year with marked springtime seasonality. In 1999, the number and rates of varicella cases and hospitalizations declined markedly. From 1995 through 2000, in Antelope Valley, Travis County, and West Philadelphia, varicella cases declined 71%, 84%, and 79%, respectively. Cases declined to the greatest extent among children aged 1 to 4 years, but cases declined in all age groups, including infants and adults. In the combined 3 surveillance areas, hospitalizations due to varicella declined from a range of 2.7 to 4.2 per 100,000 population in 1995 through 1998 to 0.6 and 1.5 per 100,000 population in 1999 and 2000, respectively (P =.15). By 2000, vaccine coverage among children aged 19 to 35 months was 82.1%, 73.6%, and 83.8% in Los Angeles County, Texas, and Philadelphia County, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Varicella disease has declined dramatically in surveillance areas with moderate vaccine coverage. Continued implementation of existing vaccine policies should lead to further reductions of varicella disease in these communities and throughout the United States.

Intussusception among infants given an oral rotavirus vaccine

BACKGROUND

Intussusception is a form of intestinal obstruction in which a segment of the bowel prolapses into a more distal segment. Our investigation began on May 27, 1999, after nine cases of infants who had intussusception after receiving the tetravalent rhesus-human reassortant rotavirus vaccine (RRV-TV) were reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System.

METHODS

In 19 states, we assessed the potential association between RRV-TV and intussusception among infants at least 1 but less than 12 months old. Infants hospitalized between November 1, 1998, and June 30, 1999, were identified by systematic reviews of medical and radiologic records. Each infant with intussusception was matched according to age with four healthy control infants who had been born at the same hospital as the infant with intussusception. Information on vaccinations was verified by the provider.

RESULTS

Data were analyzed for 429 infants with intussusception and 1763 matched controls in a case-control analysis as well as for 432 infants with intussusception in a case-series analysis. Seventy-four of the 429 infants with intussusception (17.2 percent) and 226 of the 1763 controls (12.8 percent) had received RRV-TV (P=0.02). An increased risk of intussusception 3 to 14 days after the first dose of RRV-TV was found in the case-control analysis (adjusted odds ratio, 21.7; 95 percent confidence interval, 9.6 to 48.9). In the case-series analysis, the incidence-rate ratio was 29.4 (95 percent confidence interval, 16.1 to 53.6) for days 3 through 14 after a first dose. There was also an increase in the risk of intussusception after the second dose of the vaccine, but it was smaller than the increase in risk after the first dose. Assuming full implementation of a national program of vaccination with RRV-TV, we estimated that 1 case of intussusception attributable to the vaccine would occur for every 4670 to 9474 infants vaccinated.

CONCLUSIONS

The strong association between vaccination with RRV-TV and intussusception among otherwise healthy infants supports the existence of a causal relation. Rotavirus vaccines with an improved safety profile are urgently needed.

Varicella mortality: trends before vaccine licensure in the United States, 1970-1994

We examined varicella deaths in the United States during the 25 years before vaccine licensure and identified 2262 people who died with varicella as the underlying cause of death. From 1970 to 1994, varicella mortality declined, followed by an increase. Mortality rates were highest among children; however, adult varicella deaths more than doubled in number, proportion, and rate per million population. Despite declining fatality rates, in 1990-1994, adults had a risk 25 times greater and infants had a risk 4 times greater of dying from varicella than did children 1-4 years old, and most people who died of varicella were previously healthy. Varicella deaths are now preventable by vaccine. Investigation and reporting of all varicella deaths in the United States is needed to accurately document deaths due to varicella, to improve prevention efforts, and to evaluate the vaccine's impact on mortality.

Beta-carotene intake and risk of postmenopausal breast cancer

We assessed the relation between beta-carotene consumption at various times in life and breast cancer risk by conducting a case-control study nested within a population-based cohort of women screened for breast cancer in Sweden. We conducted a telephone interview with 273 incident breast cancer cases and 371 controls about their diet at various ages throughout their lifetime. Controls were frequency matched to cases on age, month and year of mammography, and county of residence. We used unconditional logistic regression to measure the association between beta-carotene intake and breast cancer risk while adjusting for total energy intake, recency of intake, and the matching variables. Women were at lower risk with increasing levels of reported intake of beta-carotene. This pattern of association between breast cancer and beta-carotene intake was similar at various times before screening. These findings indicate that although diets high in beta-carotene may be associated with lower breast cancer risk, there does not seem to be evidence of a critical time period during which such diets are more relevant.

Feeding practices and growth in Yemeni children

A nutritional survey in the Tihama region of Yemen allowed an analysis of the relationship between infant feeding practices and the growth of children 3-23 months of age. The survey was conducted in 1979 on a representative sample of 364 preschool children 3-23 months of age. After adjustment for demographic and socioeconomic factors, breast feeding was found to be associated with higher weight-for-length and weight-for-age. The strongest beneficial effect of breast feeding on weight-for-length was seen at 3-6 months, a weaker effect at 7-12 months, and essentially no effect over 12 months of age. A higher weight-for-age was seen in breast-fed infants 3-6 months of age only. Introducing other foods was associated with higher weight-for-length only in children 13-23 months of age. Neither breast feeding nor introducing other foods was associated with length-for-age. Infant feeding practices appear to be associated with weight gain, but not linear growth in Yemeni infants.