Hot for Robots! Sexual Arousal Increases Willingness to Have Sex with Robots

Robots designed to elicit sexual arousal are coming. Sexual arousal can increase our willingness to engage in risky or unconventional sexual behaviors. However, researchers have yet to examine whether this effect extends to robots. Hence, this study provides the first empirical evidence that state sexual arousal can increase our willingness to engage erotically with robots. Based on previous research, we hypothesized that levels of sexual arousal would positively predict willingness to engage erotically with robots (Hypothesis 1); and that men would be more willing to engage erotically with robots than women (Hypothesis 2). A convenience sample of 321 adults (≥18y) completed a two-part online survey measuring their willingness to have sex with, love, engage in an intimate relationship with, and be friends with a robot and a human before and after viewing a sexually explicit video. The results partly support Hypotheses 1-2. They show that state sexual arousal increases willingness to have sex with a robot, and that men are more willing to have sex and engage in an intimate relationship with a robot than women, pre- and post-manipulation. These findings are important given the rise of sex robots and their potential influence on our intimate decisions and behaviors.

Intermittent point prevalence surveys on healthcare-associated infections, 2011 and 2016, in England: what are the surveillance and intervention priorities?

BACKGROUND

Point prevalence surveys are an important surveillance method for determining the burden of healthcare-associated infections (HCAIs).

AIM

To outline the key results of two point prevalence surveys in England (2011 and 2016).

METHODS

All National Health Service and independent sector hospitals in England were eligible to participate. Data were collected between September and November in both 2011 and 2016 based on the protocol and codebook devised by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Analysis was performed using Stata Version 13 and SAS Version 9.3. A mixed-effects model was applied, which allowed estimation of organization-specific means and accounted for the heterogeneity in the responses from different organizations.

FINDINGS

A total of 100,755 case records were included (52,433 in 2011 and 48,312 in 2016). The estimated prevalence of HCAIs was slightly higher in 2016 [6.89%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 6.21-7.57%] than in 2011 (6.41%, 95% CI 5.75-7.06%). In both surveys, the prevalence of HCAIs was highest in adult intensive care units (23.1% in 2011, 21.2% in 2016), and pneumonia/lower respiratory tract infections was the most common cause of HCAIs (22.7% in 2011 vs 29.2% in 2016). Inpatients in acute hospitals were older and had higher risk of dying in 2016 compared with 2011; however, the proportion of inpatients with HCAIs or on antibiotics did not differ significantly.

CONCLUSION

The burden of HCAIs in English hospitals increased slightly between 2011 and 2016. However, the proportion of inpatients with HCAIs or on antibiotics did not differ significantly.

Assessing the added value of group B Streptococcus maternal immunisation in preventing maternal infection and fetal harm: population surveillance study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the incidence of maternal group B Streptococcus (GBS) infection in England.

DESIGN

Population surveillance augmented through data linkage.

SETTING

England.

POPULATION

All pregnant women accessing the National Health Service (NHS) in England.

METHODS

Invasive GBS (iGBS) infections during pregnancy or within 6 weeks of childbirth were identified by linking Public Health England (PHE) national microbiology surveillance data for 2014 to NHS hospital admission records. Capsular serotypes of GBS were determined by reference laboratory typing of clinical isolates from women aged 15-44 years. Post-caesarean section surgical site infection (SSI) caused by GBS was identified in 21 hospitals participating in PHE SSI surveillance (2009-2015).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

iGBS rate per 1000 maternities; risk of GBS SSI per 1000 caesarean sections.

RESULTS

Of 1601 patients diagnosed with iGBS infections in England in 2014, 185 (12%) were identified as maternal infections, a rate of 0.29 (95% CI 0.25-0.33) per 1000 maternities and representing 83% of all iGBS cases in women aged 18-44 years. Seven (3.8%) were associated with miscarriage. Fetal outcome identified excess rates of stillbirth (3.4 versus 0.5%) and extreme prematurity (<28 weeks of gestation, 3.7 versus 0.5%) compared with national averages (P < 0.001). Caesarean section surveillance in 27 860 women (21 hospitals) identified 47 cases of GBS SSI, with an estimated 4.24 (3.51-5.07) per 1000 caesarean sections, a median time-to-onset of 10 days (IQR 7-13 days) and ten infections that required readmission. Capsular serotype analysis identified a diverse array of strains with serotype III as the most common (43%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our assessment of maternal GBS infection in England indicates the potential additional benefit of GBS vaccination in preventing adverse maternal and fetal outcomes.

An Assessment of Potential Unintended Consequences Following a National Antimicrobial Stewardship Program in England: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

BACKGROUND

The "Quality Premium" (QP) introduced in England in 2015 aimed to financially reward local healthcare commissioners for targeted reductions in primary care antibiotic prescribing. We aimed to evaluate possible unintended clinical outcomes related to this QP.

METHODS

Using Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episode Statistics datasets, we examined general practitioner (GP) consultations (visits) and emergency hospital admissions related to a series of predefined conditions of unintended consequences of reduced prescribing. Monthly age- and sex-standardized rates were calculated using a direct method of standardization. We used segmented regression analysis of interrupted time series to evaluate the impact of the QP on seasonally adjusted outcome rates.

RESULTS

We identified 27334 GP consultations and >5 million emergency hospital admissions with predefined conditions. There was no evidence that the QP was associated with changes in GP consultation and hospital admission rates for the selected conditions combined. However, when each condition was considered separately, a significant increase in hospital admission rates was noted for quinsy, and significant decreases were seen for hospital-acquired pneumonia, scarlet fever, pyelonephritis, and complicated urinary tract conditions. A significant decrease in GP consultation rates was estimated for empyema and scarlet fever. No significant changes were observed for other conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from this study show that overall there was no significant association between the intervention and unintended clinical consequences, with the exception of a few specific conditions, most of which could be explained through other parallel policy changes or should be interpreted with caution due to small numbers.

The Impact of a National Antimicrobial Stewardship Program on Antibiotic Prescribing in Primary Care: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

BACKGROUND

The Quality Premium was introduced in 2015 to financially reward local commissioners of healthcare in England for targeted reductions in antibiotic prescribing in primary care.

METHODS

We used a national antibiotic prescribing dataset from April 2013 until February 2017 to examine the number of antibiotic items prescribed, the total number of antibiotic items prescribed per STAR-PU (specific therapeutic group age/sex-related prescribing units), the number of broad-spectrum antibiotic items prescribed, and broad-spectrum antibiotic items prescribed, expressed as a percentage of the total number of antibiotic items. To evaluate the impact of the Quality Premium on antibiotic prescribing, we used a segmented regression analysis of interrupted time series data.

RESULTS

During the study period, over 140 million antibiotic items were prescribed in primary care. Following the introduction of the Quality Premium, antibiotic items prescribed decreased by 8.2%, representing 5933563 fewer antibiotic items prescribed during the 23 post-intervention months, as compared with the expected numbers based on the trend in the pre-intervention period. After adjusting for the age and sex distribution in the population, the segmented regression model also showed a significant relative decrease in antibiotic items prescribed per STAR-PU. A similar effect was found for broad-spectrum antibiotics (comprising 10.1% of total antibiotic prescribing), with an 18.9% reduction in prescribing.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that the introduction of financial incentives for local commissioners of healthcare to improve the quality of prescribing was associated with a significant reduction in both total and broad-spectrum antibiotic prescribing in primary care in England.

Epidemiology of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales in England, May 2015-March 2019: national enhanced surveillance findings and approach

Background

In response to increasing numbers of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) in England, Public Health England (PHE) launched an electronic reporting system (ERS) for the enhanced surveillance of carbapenemase-producing Gram-negative bacteria. Our study aimed to describe system engagement and the epidemiology of CPE in England.

Methods

Engagement with the ERS was assessed by calculating the proportion of referrals submitted this system. ERS data were extracted and cases defined as patients with CPE isolated from a screening or clinical specimen in England between 1^st May 2015 to 31^st March 2019. Descriptive summary statistics for each variable were prepared.

Results

The ERS processed 12,656 suspected CPE reports. Uptake of the ERS by local microbiology laboratories varied, with approximately 70% of referrals made via the ERS by April 2016; this steadily decreased after March 2018. Six-thousand eight-hundred and fifty-seven cases were included in the analysis. Most cases were from colonised patients (80.6%) rather than infected, and the majority were inpatients in acute hospital settings (87.3%). Carbapenemases were most frequently detected in Klebsiella pneumoniae (39.1%) and Escherichia coli (30.3%). The most frequently identified carbapenemase families were OXA-48-like (45.1%) and KPC (26.4%). Enhanced data variables were poorly completed.

Conclusions

The ERS has provided some insight into the epidemiology of CPE in England. An increasing number of routine diagnostic laboratories have introduced methods to routinely identify acquired carbapenemases and PHE has modified its approach to ensure robust surveillance, which is an essential aspect of an effective response to prevent and control the spread of CPE.

Surveillance of bloodstream infections in intensive care units in England, May 2016-April 2017: epidemiology and ecology

BACKGROUND

Bloodstream infections (BSIs) in patients in intensive care units (ICUs) are associated with increased morbidity, mortality and economic costs. Many BSIs are associated with central venous catheters (CVCs). The Infection in Critical Care Quality Improvement Programme (ICCQIP) was established to initiate surveillance of BSIs in English ICUs.

METHODS

A web-based data capture system was launched on 1^st May 2016 to collect all positive blood cultures (PBCs), patient-days and CVC-days. National Health Service (NHS) trusts in England were invited to participate in the surveillance programme. Data were linked to the antimicrobial resistance dataset maintained by Public Health England and to mortality data.

FINDINGS

Between 1^st May 2016 and 30^th April 2017, 84 ICUs (72 adult ICUs, seven paediatric ICUs and five neonatal ICUs) based in 57 of 147 NHS trusts provided data. In total, 1474 PBCs were reported, with coagulase-negative staphylococci, Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus and Enterococcus faecium being the most commonly reported organisms. The rates of BSI and ICU-associated CVC-BSI were 5.7, 1.5 and 1.3 per 1000 bed-days and 2.3, 1.0 and 1.5 per 1000 ICU-CVC-days in adult, paediatric and neonatal ICUs, respectively. There was wide variation in BSI and CVC-BSI rates within ICU types, particularly in adult ICUs (0-44.0 per 1000 bed-days and 0-18.3 per 1000 ICU-CVC-days).

CONCLUSIONS

While the overall rates of ICU-associated CVC-BSIs were lower than 2.5 per 1000 ICU-CVC-days across all age ranges, large differences were observed between ICUs, highlighting the importance of a national standardized surveillance system to identify opportunities for improvement. Data linkage provided clinically important information on resistance patterns and patient outcomes at no extra cost to participating trusts.

Investigation of the impact of the NICE guidelines regarding antibiotic prophylaxis during invasive dental procedures on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England: an electronic health records study

BACKGROUND

Infective endocarditis is an uncommon but serious infection, where evidence for giving antibiotic prophylaxis before invasive dental procedures is inconclusive. In England, antibiotic prophylaxis was offered routinely to patients at risk of infective endocarditis until March 2008, when new guidelines aimed at reducing unnecessary antibiotic use were issued. We investigated whether changes in infective endocarditis incidence could be detected using electronic health records, assessing the impact of inclusion criteria/statistical model choice on inferences about the timing/type of any change.

METHODS

Using national data from Hospital Episode Statistics covering 1998-2017, we modelled trends in infective endocarditis incidence using three different sets of inclusion criteria plus a range of regression models, identifying the most likely date for a change in trends if evidence for one existed. We also modelled trends in the proportions of different organism groups identified during infection episodes, using secondary diagnosis codes and data from national laboratory records. Lastly, we applied non-parametric local smoothing to visually inspect any changes in trend around the guideline change date.

RESULTS

Infective endocarditis incidence increased markedly over the study (22.2-41.3 per million population in 1998 to 42.0-67.7 in 2017 depending on inclusion criteria). The most likely dates for a change in incidence trends ranged from September 2001 (uncertainty interval August 2000-May 2003) to May 2015 (March 1999-January 2016), depending on inclusion criteria and statistical model used. For the proportion of infective endocarditis cases associated with streptococci, the most likely change points ranged from October 2008 (March 2006-April 2010) to August 2015 (September 2013-November 2015), with those associated with oral streptococci decreasing in proportion after the change point. Smoothed trends showed no notable changes in trend around the guideline date.

CONCLUSIONS

Infective endocarditis incidence has increased rapidly in England, though we did not detect any change in trends directly following the updated guidelines for antibiotic prophylaxis, either overall or in cases associated with oral streptococci. Estimates of when changes occurred were sensitive to inclusion criteria and statistical model choice, demonstrating the need for caution in interpreting single models when using large datasets. More research is needed to explore the factors behind this increase.

Music predictability and liking enhance pupil dilation and promote motor learning in non-musicians

Humans can anticipate music and derive pleasure from it. Expectations facilitate the learning of movements associated with anticipated events, and they are also linked with reward, which may further facilitate learning of the anticipated rewarding events. The present study investigates the synergistic effects of predictability and hedonic responses to music on arousal and motor-learning in a naïve population. Novel melodies were manipulated in their overall predictability (predictable/unpredictable) as objectively defined by a model of music expectation, and ranked as high/medium/low liked based on participants' self-reports collected during an initial listening session. During this session, we also recorded ocular pupil size as an implicit measure of listeners' arousal. During the following motor task, participants learned to play target notes of the melodies on a keyboard (notes were of similar motor and musical complexity across melodies). Pupil dilation was greater for liked melodies, particularly when predictable. Motor performance was facilitated in predictable rather than unpredictable melodies, but liked melodies were learned even in the unpredictable condition. Low-liked melodies also showed learning but mostly in participants with higher scores of task perceived competence. Taken together, these results highlight  the effects of stimuli predictability on learning, which can be however overshadowed by the effects of stimulus liking or task-related intrinsic motivation.

'Caveat emptor': the cautionary tale of endocarditis and the potential pitfalls of clinical coding data-an electronic health records study

BACKGROUND

Diagnostic codes from electronic health records are widely used to assess patterns of disease. Infective endocarditis is an uncommon but serious infection, with objective diagnostic criteria. Electronic health records have been used to explore the impact of changing guidance on antibiotic prophylaxis for dental procedures on incidence, but limited data on the accuracy of the diagnostic codes exists. Endocarditis was used as a clinically relevant case study to investigate the relationship between clinical cases and diagnostic codes, to understand discrepancies and to improve design of future studies.

METHODS

Electronic health record data from two UK tertiary care centres were linked with data from a prospectively collected clinical endocarditis service database (Leeds Teaching Hospital) or retrospective clinical audit and microbiology laboratory blood culture results (Oxford University Hospitals Trust). The relationship between diagnostic codes for endocarditis and confirmed clinical cases according to the objective Duke criteria was assessed, and impact on estimations of disease incidence and trends.

RESULTS

In Leeds 2006-2016, 738/1681(44%) admissions containing any endocarditis code represented a definite/possible case, whilst 263/1001(24%) definite/possible endocarditis cases had no endocarditis code assigned. In Oxford 2010-2016, 307/552(56%) reviewed endocarditis-coded admissions represented a clinical case. Diagnostic codes used by most endocarditis studies had good positive predictive value (PPV) but low sensitivity (e.g. I33-primary 82% and 43% respectively); one (I38-secondary) had PPV under 6%. Estimating endocarditis incidence using raw admission data overestimated incidence trends twofold. Removing records with non-specific codes, very short stays and readmissions improved predictive ability. Estimating incidence of streptococcal endocarditis using secondary codes also overestimated increases in incidence over time. Reasons for discrepancies included changes in coding behaviour over time, and coding guidance allowing assignment of a code mentioning 'endocarditis' where endocarditis was never mentioned in the clinical notes.

CONCLUSIONS

Commonly used diagnostic codes in studies of endocarditis had good predictive ability. Other apparently plausible codes were poorly predictive. Use of diagnostic codes without examining sensitivity and predictive ability can give inaccurate estimations of incidence and trends. Similar considerations may apply to other diseases. Health record studies require validation of diagnostic codes and careful data curation to minimise risk of serious errors.

Strong correlation between the rates of intrinsically antibiotic-resistant species and the rates of acquired resistance in Gram-negative species causing bacteraemia, EU/EEA, 2016

BackgroundAntibiotic resistance, either intrinsic or acquired, is a major obstacle for treating bacterial infections.AimOur objective was to compare the country-specific species distribution of the four Gram-negative species Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Acinetobacter species and the proportions of selected acquired resistance traits within these species.MethodWe used data reported for 2016 to the European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net) by 30 countries in the European Union and European Economic Area.ResultsThe country-specific species distribution varied considerably. While E. coli accounted for 31.9% to 81.0% (median: 69.0%) of all reported isolates, the two most common intrinsically resistant species P. aeruginosa and Acinetobacter spp. combined (PSEACI) accounted for 5.5% to 39.2% of isolates (median: 10.1%). Similarly, large national differences were noted for the percentages of acquired non-susceptibility to third-generation cephalosporins, carbapenems and fluoroquinolones. There was a strong positive rank correlation between the country-specific percentages of PSEACI and the percentages of non-susceptibility to the above antibiotics in all four species (rho > 0.75 for 10 of the 11 pairs of variables tested).ConclusionCountries with the highest proportion of P. aeruginosa and Acinetobacter spp. were also those where the rates of acquired non-susceptibility in all four studied species were highest. The differences are probably related to national differences in antibiotic consumption and infection prevention and control routines.

Using hospital network-based surveillance for antimicrobial resistance as a more robust alternative to self-reporting

Hospital performance is often measured using self-reported statistics, such as the incidence of hospital-transmitted micro-organisms or those exhibiting antimicrobial resistance (AMR), encouraging hospitals with high levels to improve their performance. However, hospitals that increase screening efforts will appear to have a higher incidence and perform poorly, undermining comparison between hospitals and disincentivising testing, thus hampering infection control. We propose a surveillance system in which hospitals test patients previously discharged from other hospitals and report observed cases. Using English National Health Service (NHS) Hospital Episode Statistics data, we analysed patient movements across England and assessed the number of hospitals required to participate in such a reporting scheme to deliver robust estimates of incidence. With over 1.2 million admissions to English hospitals previously discharged from other hospitals annually, even when only a fraction of hospitals (41/155) participate (each screening at least 1000 of these admissions), the proposed surveillance system can estimate incidence across all hospitals. By reporting on other hospitals, the reporting of incidence is separated from the task of improving own performance. Therefore the incentives for increasing performance can be aligned to increase (rather than decrease) screening efforts, thus delivering both more comparable figures on the AMR problems across hospitals and improving infection control efforts.

Antibiotic management of urinary tract infection in elderly patients in primary care and its association with bloodstream infections and all cause mortality: population based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between antibiotic treatment for urinary tract infection (UTI) and severe adverse outcomes in elderly patients in primary care.

DESIGN

Retrospective population based cohort study.

SETTING

Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2007-15) primary care records linked to hospital episode statistics and death records in England.

PARTICIPANTS

157 264 adults aged 65 years or older presenting to a general practitioner with at least one diagnosis of suspected or confirmed lower UTI from November 2007 to May 2015.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Bloodstream infection, hospital admission, and all cause mortality within 60 days after the index UTI diagnosis.

RESULTS

Among 312 896 UTI episodes (157 264 unique patients), 7.2% (n=22 534) did not have a record of antibiotics being prescribed and 6.2% (n=19 292) showed a delay in antibiotic prescribing. 1539 episodes of bloodstream infection (0.5%) were recorded within 60 days after the initial UTI. The rate of bloodstream infection was significantly higher among those patients not prescribed an antibiotic (2.9%; n=647) and those recorded as revisiting the general practitioner within seven days of the initial consultation for an antibiotic prescription compared with those given a prescription for an antibiotic at the initial consultation (2.2% v 0.2%; P=0.001). After adjustment for covariates, patients were significantly more likely to experience a bloodstream infection in the deferred antibiotics group (adjusted odds ratio 7.12, 95% confidence interval 6.22 to 8.14) and no antibiotics group (8.08, 7.12 to 9.16) compared with the immediate antibiotics group. The number needed to harm (NNH) for occurrence of bloodstream infection was lower (greater risk) for the no antibiotics group (NNH=37) than for the deferred antibiotics group (NNH=51) compared with the immediate antibiotics group. The rate of hospital admissions was about double among cases with no antibiotics (27.0%) and deferred antibiotics (26.8%) compared with those prescribed immediate antibiotics (14.8%; P=0.001). The risk of all cause mortality was significantly higher with deferred antibiotics and no antibiotics than with immediate antibiotics at any time during the 60 days follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio 1.16, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.27 and 2.18, 2.04 to 2.33, respectively). Men older than 85 years were particularly at risk for both bloodstream infection and 60 day all cause mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In elderly patients with a diagnosis of UTI in primary care, no antibiotics and deferred antibiotics were associated with a significant increase in bloodstream infection and all cause mortality compared with immediate antibiotics. In the context of an increase of Escherichia coli bloodstream infections in England, early initiation of recommended first line antibiotics for UTI in the older population is advocated.

An evaluation of the electronic reporting system for the enhanced surveillance of carbapenemase-producing Gram-negative bacteria in England

BACKGROUND

An electronic reporting system (ERS) for the enhanced surveillance of carbapenemase-producing Gram-negative bacteria (CPGNB) was launched by Public Health England in May 2015.

AIM

This evaluation aimed to assess uptake, timeliness and completeness of data provided and explore potential barriers and facilitators to adopting the system.

METHODS

The evaluation comprised a retrospective analysis of surveillance data and semi-structured interviews with ERS users.

FINDINGS

The proportion of organisms referred for investigation of carbapenem resistance via ERS increased over the first 12 months post-implementation from 35% to 73%; uptake varied widely across regions of England. Completeness of enhanced data fields was poor in 78% of submitted isolates. The median number of days to report confirmatory test results via ERS was 1 day for the regional service and nine days for the national reference laboratory, which additionally conducts phenotypic testing to confirm carbapenemase negativity. Hindrances to ERS utility included: a lack of designated, ongoing resource for system maintenance, technical support and development; uncertainty about how and when to use ERS and workload. Incomplete data prevented gaining a better understanding of important risk factors and transmission routes of CPGNB in England.

CONCLUSION

The ERS is the only surveillance system in England with the potential to gather intelligence on important risk factors for CPGNB to inform public health measures to control their spread. Although the ERS captures more information on CPGNB than other surveillance systems, timeliness and completeness of the enhanced data require substantial improvements in order to deliver the desired health benefits.

A new method of administering local anesthesia for calf disbudding: Findings from a comparative on-farm study in New Zealand

Anesthesia of the horn bud for calf disbudding commonly is attained by injection of local anesthetic over branches of the cornual nerve, with anesthesia achieved in 3 to 20 min. With experienced and trained staff, this method is effective in 88 to 100% of calves. Variability in response and time of onset can compromise calf welfare if calves are disbudded before anesthesia is attained. Proposed legislative reliance on effective local anesthetic as the minimal method of pain relief for calves at disbudding means that administration of local anesthetic must achieve a repeatable level and rapid onset of analgesia. We describe an alternative method of local anesthesia administration that uses local site infiltration of anesthetic over the horn bud. However, this method has not yet been scientifically validated. This study assessed differences between disbudding using the cornual nerve block and disbudding with local anesthesia administered by local site infiltration. Efficacy of local anesthesia was assessed at 30-s intervals after administration by absence of reaction to 3 consecutive needle pricks over the horn buds. Behavior indicating pain was assessed during disbudding and scored from 0 to 3. Calf behavior was also recorded for 3 h after disbudding. Accelerometer data loggers were fitted to each calf for 24 h before and after disbudding to assess lying and standing times. Median time to cutaneous desensitization for local infiltration was 60 s compared with 225 s for cornual nerve block, and the variance in time to desensitization was less with local infiltration. Calves disbudded under cornual block had a larger behavioral response (indicated by a graded aversive body reaction) than calves disbudded under local infiltration. A multivariable model predicted that the mean body reaction score would be 0.6 for calves disbudded under local infiltration and 1.2 for calves disbudded under cornual block. There was no difference in any behaviors between the treatment groups in the 3 h after disbudding. Method of analgesia had no effect on lying time over the 24 h after disbudding. In this study, local infiltration was at least as effective in providing analgesia for disbudding as the cornual nerve block. Our results suggest that a more consistent, effective level of analgesia during disbudding was achieved using local infiltration and that there was no difference in postoperative expressions of pain.

Is recovery from ankle sprains negatively affected by obesity?

OBJECTIVE

Ankle sprains are common injuries that may lead to long-term morbidity. Individuals with obesity are at increased risk for ankle sprains; however, prognostic associations between body mass index (BMI) and recovery are less well understood. This study investigated whether BMI status affects recovery from ankle sprains.

METHODS

We included individuals≥16 years old with grade 1 or 2 ankle sprains who sought emergency department treatment in Kingston, Ontario, Canada. Height in centimeters and weight in kilograms were measured at baseline by using a height rod and a standard medical column scale, respectively. BMI was calculated and categorized as non-overweight,<25.0kg/m²; overweight, 25.0-29.9kg/m²; and obese,≥30kg/m². Recovery was assessed at 1, 3 and 6 months post-injury by the Foot and Ankle Outcome Score (FAOS). Continuous FAOS and binary recovery status were compared by BMI group at each assessment using a repeated measures linear mixed effects model and logistic regression, respectively.

RESULTS

In total, 504 individuals were recruited and 6-month follow-up data were collected for 80%. We observed no significant differences in recovery at 1 and 3 months post-injury. At 6 months, between 53% and 66% of the participants were considered to have recovered according to the FAOS. The mean difference in unadjusted FAOS between participants classified as obese and non-overweight was -23.02 (95% confidence interval, -38.99 to -7.05) but decreased after adjusting for confounders. The odds ratio for recovery was 0.60 (0.37-0.97) before adjustment and 0.74 (0.43-1.29) after adjustment. Six-month recovery was significantly lower for participants with obesity than non-overweight participants on the FAOS Pain and Function in Daily Living subscales but were not clinically meaningful.

CONCLUSIONS

All BMI groups showed improvements from ankle sprain over time. However, at 6 months, a sizeable proportion of the participants had not fully recovered particularly among individuals classified as obese. The findings suggest that individuals with obesity may benefit from specialized interventions focused on symptom management and functional activity.

A standardized methodology for the surveillance of antimicrobial prescribing linked to clinical indications in primary care

Background

A key component of strategies to reduce antimicrobial resistance is better antimicrobial prescribing. The majority of antibiotics are prescribed in primary care. While many existing surveillance systems can monitor trends in the quantities of antibiotics prescribed in this setting, it can be difficult to monitor the quality of prescribing as data on the condition for which prescriptions are issued are often not available. We devised a standardized methodology to facilitate the monitoring of condition-specific antibiotic prescribing in primary care.

Methods

We used a large computerized general practitioner database to develop a standardized methodology for routine monitoring of antimicrobial prescribing linked to clinical indications in primary care in the UK. Outputs included prescribing rate by syndrome and percentages of consultations with antibiotic prescription, for recommended antibiotic, and of recommended treatment length.

Results

The standardized methodology can monitor trends in proportions of common infections for which antibiotics were prescribed, the specific drugs prescribed and duration of treatment. These data can be used to help assess the appropriateness of antibiotic prescribing and to assess the impact of prescribing guidelines.

Conclusions

We present a standardized methodology that could be applied to any suitable national or local database and adapted for use in other countries.

Quantifying where human acquisition of antibiotic resistance occurs: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB) are selected by the use of antibiotics. The rational design of interventions to reduce levels of antibiotic resistance requires a greater understanding of how and where ARB are acquired. Our aim was to determine whether acquisition of ARB occurs more often in the community or hospital setting.

METHODS

We used a mathematical model of the natural history of ARB to estimate how many ARB were acquired in each of these two environments, as well as to determine key parameters for further investigation. To do this, we explored a range of realistic parameter combinations and considered a case study of parameters for an important subset of resistant strains in England.

RESULTS

If we consider all people with ARB in the total population (community and hospital), the majority, under most clinically derived parameter combinations, acquired their resistance in the community, despite higher levels of antibiotic use and transmission of ARB in the hospital. However, if we focus on just the hospital population, under most parameter combinations a greater proportion of this population acquired ARB in the hospital.

CONCLUSIONS

It is likely that the majority of ARB are being acquired in the community, suggesting that efforts to reduce overall ARB carriage should focus on reducing antibiotic usage and transmission in the community setting. However, our framework highlights the need for better pathogen-specific data on antibiotic exposure, ARB clearance and transmission parameters, as well as the link between carriage of ARB and health impact. This is important to determine whether interventions should target total ARB carriage or hospital-acquired ARB carriage, as the latter often dominated in hospital populations.

Trends over time in Escherichia coli bloodstream infections, urinary tract infections, and antibiotic susceptibilities in Oxfordshire, UK, 1998-2016: a study of electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Escherichia coli bloodstream infections are increasing in the UK and internationally. The evidence base to guide interventions against this major public health concern is small. We aimed to investigate possible drivers of changes in the incidence of E coli bloodstream infection and antibiotic susceptibilities in Oxfordshire, UK, over the past two decades, while stratifying for time since hospital exposure.

METHODS

In this observational study, we used all available data on E coli bloodstream infections and E coli urinary tract infections (UTIs) from one UK region (Oxfordshire) using anonymised linked microbiological data and hospital electronic health records from the Infections in Oxfordshire Research Database (IORD). We estimated the incidence of infections across a two decade period and the annual incidence rate ratio (aIRR) in 2016. We modelled the data using negative binomial regression on the basis of microbiological, clinical, and health-care-exposure risk factors. We investigated infection severity, 30-day all-cause mortality, and community and hospital amoxicillin plus clavulanic acid (co-amoxiclav) use to estimate changes in bacterial virulence and the effect of antimicrobial resistance on incidence.

FINDINGS

From Jan 1, 1998, to Dec 31, 2016, 5706 E coli bloodstream infections occurred in 5215 patients, and 228 376 E coli UTIs occurred in 137 075 patients. 1365 (24%) E coli bloodstream infections were nosocomial (onset >48 h after hospital admission), 1132 (20%) were quasi-nosocomial (≤30 days after discharge), 1346 (24%) were quasi-community (31-365 days after discharge), and 1863 (33%) were community (>365 days after hospital discharge). The overall incidence increased year on year (aIRR 1·06, 95% CI 1·05-1·06). In 2016, 212 (41%) of 515 E coli bloodstream infections and 3921 (28%) of 13 792 E coli UTIs were co-amoxiclav resistant. Increases in E coli bloodstream infections were driven by increases in community (aIRR 1·10, 95% CI 1·07-1·13; p<0·0001) and quasi-community (aIRR 1·08, 1·07-1·10; p<0·0001) cases. 30-day mortality associated with E coli bloodstream infection decreased over time in the nosocomial (adjusted rate ratio [RR] 0·98, 95% CI 0·96-1·00; p=0·03) group, and remained stable in the quasi-nosocomial (adjusted RR 0·98, 0·95-1·00; p=0·06), quasi-community (adjusted RR 0·99, 0·96-1·01; p=0·32), and community (adjusted RR 0·99, 0·96-1·01; p=0·21) groups. Mortality was, however, substantial at 14-25% across all hospital-exposure groups. Co-amoxiclav-resistant E coli bloodstream infections increased in all groups across the study period (by 11-18% per year, significantly faster than co-amoxiclav-susceptible E coli bloodstream infections; p_{heterogeneity}<0·0001), as did co-amoxiclav-resistant E coli UTIs (by 14-29% per year; p_{heterogeneity}<0·0001). Previous year co-amoxiclav use in primary-care facilities was associated with increased subsequent year community co-amoxiclav-resistant E coli UTIs (p=0·003).

INTERPRETATION

Increases in E coli bloodstream infections in Oxfordshire are primarily community associated, with substantial co-amoxiclav resistance; nevertheless, we found little or no change in mortality. Focusing interventions on primary care facilities, particularly those with high co-amoxiclav use, could be effective in reducing the incidence of co-amoxiclav-resistant E coli bloodstream infections, in this region and more generally.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research.

An evaluation of a toolkit for the early detection, management, and control of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae: a survey of acute hospital trusts in England

BACKGROUND

Following hospital outbreaks of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE), Public Health England published a toolkit in December 2013 to promote the early detection, management, and control of CPE colonization and infection in acute hospital settings.

AIM

To examine awareness, uptake, implementation and usefulness of the CPE toolkit and identify potential barriers and facilitators to its adoption in order to inform future guidance.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey of National Health Service (NHS) acute trusts was conducted in May 2016. Descriptive analysis and multivariable regression models were conducted, and narrative responses were analysed thematically and informed using behaviour change theory.

FINDINGS

Most (92%) acute trusts had a written CPE plan. Fewer (75%) reported consistent compliance with screening and isolation of CPE risk patients. Lower prioritization and weaker senior management support for CPE prevention were associated with poorer compliance. Awareness of the CPE toolkit was high and all trusts with patients infected or colonized with CPE had used the toolkit either as provided (32%), or to inform (65%) their own local CPE plan. Despite this, many respondents (80%) did not believe that the CPE toolkit guidance offered an effective means to prevent CPE or was practical to follow.

CONCLUSION

CPE prevention and control requires robust IPC measures. Successful implementation can be hindered by a complex set of factors related to their practical execution, insufficient resources and a lack of confidence in the effectiveness of the guidance. Future CPE guidance would benefit from substantive user involvement, processes for ongoing feedback, and regular guidance updates.

Investigating the burden of antibiotic resistance in ethnic minority groups in high-income countries: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Antibiotic resistance (ABR) is an urgent problem globally, with overuse and misuse of antibiotics being one of the main drivers of antibiotic-resistant infections. There is increasing evidence that the burden of community-acquired infections such as urinary tract infections and bloodstream infections (both susceptible and resistant) may differ by ethnicity, although the reasons behind this relationship are not well defined. It has been demonstrated that socioeconomic status and ethnicity are often highly correlated with each other; however, it is not yet known whether accounting for deprivation completely explains any discrepancy seen in infection risk. There have currently been no systematic reviews summarising the evidence for the relationship between ethnicity and antibiotic resistance or prescribing.

METHODS

This protocol will outline how we will conduct this systematic literature review and meta-analysis investigating whether there is an association between patient ethnicity and (1) risk of antibiotic-resistant infections or (2) levels of antibiotic prescribing in high-income countries. We will search PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, Scopus and CINAHL using MESH terms where applicable. Two reviewers will conduct title/abstract screening, data extraction and quality assessment independently. The Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) checklist will be used for cohort and case-control studies, and the Cochrane collaboration's risk of bias tool will be used for randomised control trials, if they are included. Meta-analyses will be performed by calculating the minority ethnic group to majority ethnic group odds ratios or risk ratios for each study and presenting an overall pooled odds ratio for the two outcomes. The Grading of Recommendations, Assessments, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach will be used to assess the overall quality of the body of evidence.

DISCUSSION

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we will aim to collate the available evidence of whether there is a difference in rates of AMR and/or antibiotic prescribing in minority vs. majority ethnic groups in high-income countries. Additionally, this review will highlight areas where more research needs to be conducted and may provide insight into what may cause differences in this relationship, should they be seen.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO ( CRD42016051533 ).

Improving feedback of surveillance data on antimicrobial consumption, resistance and stewardship in England: putting the data at your Fingertips

The provision of better access to and use of surveillance data is a key component of the UK 5 Year Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) Strategy. Since April 2016, PHE has made data on practice (infection prevention and control; antimicrobial stewardship) and outcome (prevalence of AMR, antibiotic use and healthcare-associated infections) available through Fingertips, a publicly accessible web tool (https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/amr-local-indicators). Fingertips provides access to a wide range of public health data presented as thematic profiles, with the above data being available through the 'AMR local indicators' profile. Local data on a range of indicators can be viewed at the level of National Health Service acute trusts, Clinical Commissioning Groups or general practitioner practices, all of which can be compared with the corresponding aggregate values for England to allow benchmarking. The data can be viewed in a range of formats including an overview showing counts and rates, interactive maps, spine charts and graphs that show temporal trends over a range of time scales or allow correlations between pairs of indicators. The aim of the AMR local indicators profile on Fingertips is to support the development of local action plans to optimize antibiotic prescribing and reduce AMR and healthcare-associated infections. Provision of access to relevant information in an easy to use format will help local stakeholders, including healthcare staff, commissioners, Directors of Public Health, academics and the public, to benchmark relevant local AMR data and to monitor the impact of local initiatives to tackle AMR over time.

The relative importance of large problems far away versus small problems closer to home: insights into limiting the spread of antimicrobial resistance in England

BACKGROUND

To combat the spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), hospitals are advised to screen high-risk patients for carriage of antibiotic-resistant bacteria on admission. This often includes patients previously admitted to hospitals with a high AMR prevalence. However, the ability of such a strategy to identify introductions (and hence prevent onward transmission) is unclear, as it depends on AMR prevalence in each hospital, the number of patients moving between hospitals, and the number of hospitals considered 'high risk'.

METHODS

We tracked patient movements using data from the National Health Service of England Hospital Episode Statistics and estimated differences in regional AMR prevalences using, as an exemplar, data collected through the national reference laboratory service of Public Health England on carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) from 2008 to 2014. Combining these datasets, we calculated expected CPE introductions into hospitals from across the hospital network to assess the effectiveness of admission screening based on defining high-prevalence hospitals as high risk.

RESULTS

Based on numbers of exchanged patients, the English hospital network can be divided into 14 referral regions. England saw a sharp increase in numbers of CPE isolates referred to the national reference laboratory over 7 years, from 26 isolates in 2008 to 1649 in 2014. Large regional differences in numbers of confirmed CPE isolates overlapped with regional structuring of patient movements between hospitals. However, despite these large differences in prevalence between regions, we estimated that hospitals received only a small proportion (1.8%) of CPE-colonised patients from hospitals outside their own region, which decreased over time.

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to the focus on import screening based on assigning a few hospitals as 'high risk', patient transfers between hospitals with small AMR problems in the same region often pose a larger absolute threat than patient transfers from hospitals in other regions with large problems, even if the prevalence in other regions is orders of magnitude higher. Because the difference in numbers of exchanged patients, between and within regions, was mostly larger than the difference in CPE prevalence, it would be more effective for hospitals to focus on their own populations or region to inform control efforts rather than focussing on problems elsewhere.

Descriptive epidemiology of Escherichia coli bacteraemia in England, April 2012 to March 2014

We determined the incidence, risk factors and antimicrobial susceptibility associated with Escherichia coli bacteraemia in England over a 24 month period. Case data were obtained from the national mandatory surveillance database, with susceptibility data linked from LabBase2, a voluntary national microbiology database. Between April 2012 and March 2014, 66,512 E. coli bacteraemia cases were reported. Disease incidence increased by 6% from 60.4 per 100,000 population in 2012–13 to 63.5 per 100,000 population in 2013–14 (p < 0.0001). Rates of E. coli bacteraemia varied with patient age and sex, with 70.5% (46,883/66,512) of cases seen in patients aged ≥ 65 years and 52.4% (33,969/64,846) of cases in females. The most common underlying cause of bacteraemia was infection of the genital/urinary tract (41.1%; 27,328/66,512), of which 98.4% (26,891/27,328) were urinary tract infections (UTIs). The majority of cases (76.1%; 50,617/66,512) had positive blood cultures before or within two days of admission and were classified as community onset cases, however 15.7% (10,468/66,512) occurred in patients who had been hospitalised for over a week. Non-susceptibility to ciprofloxacin, third-generation cephalosporins, piperacillin–tazobactam, gentamicin and carbapenems were 18.4% (8,439/45,829), 10.4% (4,256/40,734), 10.2% (4,694/46,186), 9.7% (4,770/49,114) and 0.2% (91/42,986), respectively. Antibiotic non-susceptibility was higher in hospital-onset cases than for those presenting from the community (e.g. ciprofloxacin non-susceptibility was 22.1% (2,234/10,105) for hospital-onset vs 17.4% (5,920/34,069) for community-onset cases). Interventions to reduce the incidence of E. coli bacteraemia will have to target the community setting and UTIs if substantial reductions are to be realised.

Genome analysis following a national increase in Scarlet Fever in England 2014

BACKGROUND

During a substantial elevation in scarlet fever (SF) notifications in 2014 a national genomic study was undertaken of Streptococcus pyogenes (Group A Streptococci, GAS) isolates from patients with SF with comparison to isolates from patients with invasive disease (iGAS) to test the hypotheses that the increase in SF was due to either the introduction of one or more new/emerging strains in the population in England or the transmission of a known genetic element through the population of GAS by horizontal gene transfer (HGT) resulting in infections with an increased likelihood of causing SF. Isolates were collected to provide geographical representation, for approximately 5% SF isolates from each region from 1st April 2014 to 18th June 2014. Contemporaneous iGAS isolates for which genomic data were available were included for comparison. Data were analysed in order to determine emm gene sequence type, phylogenetic lineage and genomic clade representation, the presence of known prophage elements and the presence of genes known to confer pathogenicity and resistance to antibiotics.

RESULTS

555 isolates were analysed, 303 from patients with SF and 252 from patients with iGAS. Isolates from patients with SF were of multiple distinct emm sequence types and phylogenetic lineages. Prior to data normalisation, emm3 was the predominant type (accounting for 42.9% of SF isolates, 130/303 95%CI 37.5-48.5; 14.7% higher than the percentage of emm3 isolates found in the iGAS isolates). Post-normalisation emm types, 4 and 12, were found to be over-represented in patients with SF versus iGAS (p < 0.001). A single gene, ssa, was over-represented in isolates from patients with SF. No single phage was found to be over represented in SF vs iGAS. However, a "meta-ssa" phage defined by the presence of :315.2, SPsP6, MGAS10750.3 or HK360ssa, was found to be over represented. The HKU360.vir phage was not detected yet the HKU360.ssa phage was present in 43/63 emm12 isolates but not found to be over-represented in isolates from patients with SF.

CONCLUSIONS

There is no evidence that the increased number of SF cases was a strain-specific or known mobile element specific phenomenon, as the increase in SF cases was associated with multiple lineages of GAS.

Effects of control interventions on Clostridium difficile infection in England: an observational study

BACKGROUND

The control of Clostridium difficile infections is an international clinical challenge. The incidence of C difficile in England declined by roughly 80% after 2006, following the implementation of national control policies; we tested two hypotheses to investigate their role in this decline. First, if C difficile infection declines in England were driven by reductions in use of particular antibiotics, then incidence of C difficile infections caused by resistant isolates should decline faster than that caused by susceptible isolates across multiple genotypes. Second, if C difficile infection declines were driven by improvements in hospital infection control, then transmitted (secondary) cases should decline regardless of susceptibility.

METHODS

Regional (Oxfordshire and Leeds, UK) and national data for the incidence of C difficile infections and antimicrobial prescribing data (1998-2014) were combined with whole genome sequences from 4045 national and international C difficile isolates. Genotype (multilocus sequence type) and fluoroquinolone susceptibility were determined from whole genome sequences. The incidence of C difficile infections caused by fluoroquinolone-resistant and fluoroquinolone-susceptible isolates was estimated with negative-binomial regression, overall and per genotype. Selection and transmission were investigated with phylogenetic analyses.

FINDINGS

National fluoroquinolone and cephalosporin prescribing correlated highly with incidence of C difficile infections (cross-correlations >0·88), by contrast with total antibiotic prescribing (cross-correlations <0·59). Regionally, C difficile decline was driven by elimination of fluoroquinolone-resistant isolates (approximately 67% of Oxfordshire infections in September, 2006, falling to approximately 3% in February, 2013; annual incidence rate ratio 0·52, 95% CI 0·48-0·56 vs fluoroquinolone-susceptible isolates: 1·02, 0·97-1·08). C difficile infections caused by fluoroquinolone-resistant isolates declined in four distinct genotypes (p<0·01). The regions of phylogenies containing fluoroquinolone-resistant isolates were short-branched and geographically structured, consistent with selection and rapid transmission. The importance of fluoroquinolone restriction over infection control was shown by significant declines in inferred secondary (transmitted) cases caused by fluoroquinolone-resistant isolates with or without hospital contact (p<0·0001) versus no change in either group of cases caused by fluoroquinolone-susceptible isolates (p>0·2).

INTERPRETATION

Restricting fluoroquinolone prescribing appears to explain the decline in incidence of C difficile infections, above other measures, in Oxfordshire and Leeds, England. Antimicrobial stewardship should be a central component of C difficile infection control programmes.

FUNDING

UK Clinical Research Collaboration (Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research); NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre; NIHR Health Protection Research Unit on Healthcare Associated Infection and Antimicrobial Resistance (Oxford University in partnership with Public Health England [PHE]), and on Modelling Methodology (Imperial College, London in partnership with PHE); and the Health Innovation Challenge Fund.

Capacity of English NHS hospitals to monitor quality in infection prevention and control using a new European framework: a multilevel qualitative analysis

OBJECTIVE

(1) To assess the extent to which current English national regulations/policies/guidelines and local hospital practices align with indicators suggested by a European review of effective strategies for infection prevention and control (IPC); (2) to examine the capacity of local hospitals to report on the indicators and current use of data to inform IPC management and practice.

DESIGN

A national and local-level analysis of the 27 indicators was conducted. At the national level, documentary review of regulations/policies/guidelines was conducted. At the local level data collection comprised: (a) review of documentary sources from 14 hospitals, to determine the capacity to report performance against these indicators; (b) qualitative interviews with 3 senior managers from 5 hospitals and direct observation of hospital wards to find out if these indicators are used to improve IPC management and practice.

SETTING

2 acute English National Health Service (NHS) trusts and 1 NHS foundation trust (14 hospitals).

PARTICIPANTS

3 senior managers from 5 hospitals for qualitative interviews.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

As primary outcome measures, a 'Red-Amber-Green' (RAG) rating was developed reflecting how well the indicators were included in national documents or their availability at the local organisational level. The current use of the indicators to inform IPC management and practice was also assessed. The main secondary outcome measure is any inconsistency between national and local RAG rating results.

RESULTS

National regulations/policies/guidelines largely cover the suggested European indicators. The ability of individual hospitals to report some of the indicators at ward level varies across staff groups, which may mask required improvements. A reactive use of staffing-related indicators was observed rather than the suggested prospective strategic approach for IPC management.

CONCLUSIONS

For effective patient safety and infection prevention in English hospitals, routine and proactive approaches need to be developed. Our approach to evaluation can be extended to other country settings.

Descriptive epidemiology of Escherichia coli bacteraemia in England, April 2012 to March 2014

We determined the incidence, risk factors and antimicrobial susceptibility associated with Escherichia coli bacteraemia in England over a 24 month period. Case data were obtained from the national mandatory surveillance database, with susceptibility data linked from LabBase2, a voluntary national microbiology database. Between April 2012 and March 2014, 66,512 E. coli bacteraemia cases were reported. Disease incidence increased by 6% from 60.4 per 100,000 population in 2012-13 to 63.5 per 100,000 population in 2013-14 (p < 0.0001). Rates of E. coli bacteraemia varied with patient age and sex, with 70.5% (46,883/66,512) of cases seen in patients aged ≥ 65 years and 52.4% (33,969/64,846) of cases in females. The most common underlying cause of bacteraemia was infection of the genital/urinary tract (41.1%; 27,328/66,512), of which 98.4% (26,891/27,328) were urinary tract infections (UTIs). The majority of cases (76.1%; 50,617/66,512) had positive blood cultures before or within two days of admission and were classified as community onset cases, however 15.7% (10,468/66,512) occurred in patients who had been hospitalised for over a week. Non-susceptibility to ciprofloxacin, third-generation cephalosporins, piperacillin-tazobactam, gentamicin and carbapenems were 18.4% (8,439/45,829), 10.4% (4,256/40,734), 10.2% (4,694/46,186), 9.7% (4,770/49,114) and 0.2% (91/42,986), respectively. Antibiotic non-susceptibility was higher in hospital-onset cases than for those presenting from the community (e.g. ciprofloxacin non-susceptibility was 22.1% (2,234/10,105) for hospital-onset vs 17.4% (5,920/34,069) for community-onset cases). Interventions to reduce the incidence of E. coli bacteraemia will have to target the community setting and UTIs if substantial reductions are to be realised.

Regional variation in the management of metastatic gastric cancer in Ontario

BACKGROUND

Geographic variation in cancer care is common when clear clinical management guidelines do not exist. In the present study, we sought to describe health care resource consumption by patients with metastatic gastric cancer (gc) and to investigate the possibility of regional variation.

METHODS

In this population-based cohort study of patients with stage iv gastric adenocarcinoma diagnosed between 1 April 2005 and 31 March 2008, chart review and administrative health care data were linked to study resource utilization outcomes (for example, clinical investigations, treatments) in the province of Ontario. The study took a health care system perspective with a 2-year time frame. Chi-square tests were used to compare proportions of resource utilization, and analysis of variance compared mean per-patient resource consumption between geographic regions.

RESULTS

A cohort of 1433 patients received 4690 endoscopic investigations, 12,033 computed tomography exams, 12,774 radiography exams, and 5059 ultrasonography exams. Nearly all patients were seen by a general practitioner (98%) and a specialist (99%), and were hospitalized (95%) or visited the emergency department (87%). Fewer than half received chemotherapy (43%), gastrectomy (37%), or radiotherapy (28%). The mean number of clinical investigations, physician visits, hospitalizations, and instances of patient accessing the emergency department or receiving radiotherapy or stent placement varied significantly by region.

CONCLUSIONS

Variations in health care resource utilization for metastatic gc patients are observed across the regions of Ontario. Whether those differences reflect differential access to resources, patient preference, or physician preference is not known. The observed variation might reflect a lack of guidelines based on high-quality evidence and could partly be ameliorated with regionalization of gc care to high-volume centres.

Detection of the plasmid-mediated mcr-1 gene conferring colistin resistance in human and food isolates of Salmonella enterica and Escherichia coli in England and Wales

OBJECTIVES

In response to the first report of transmissible colistin resistance mediated by the mcr-1 gene in Escherichia coli and Klebsiella spp. from animals and humans in China, we sought to determine its presence in Enterobacteriaceae isolated in the UK.

METHODS

The PHE archive of whole-genome sequences of isolates from surveillance collections, submissions to reference services and research projects was retrospectively analysed for the presence of mcr-1 using Genefinder. The genetic environment of the gene was also analysed.

RESULTS

Rapid screening of the genomes of ∼24 000 Salmonella enterica, E. coli, Klebsiella spp., Enterobacter spp., Campylobacter spp. and Shigella spp. isolated from food or humans identified 15 mcr-1-positive isolates. These comprised: 10 human S. enterica isolates submitted between 2012 and 2015 (8 Salmonella Typhimurium, 1 Salmonella Paratyphi B var Java and 1 Salmonella Virchow) from 10 patients; 3 isolates of E. coli from 2 patients; and 2 isolates of Salmonella Paratyphi B var Java from poultry meat imported from the EU. The mcr-1 gene was located on diverse plasmids belonging to the IncHI2, IncI2 and IncX4 replicon types and its association with ISApl1 varied. Six mcr-1-positive S. enterica isolates were from patients who had recently travelled to Asia.

CONCLUSIONS

Analysis of WGS data allowed rapid confirmation of the presence of the plasmid-mediated colistin resistance gene mcr-1 in diverse genetic environments and plasmids. It has been present in E. coli and Salmonella spp. harboured by humans in England and Wales since at least 2012.

Non-susceptibility of Escherichia coli, Klebsiella spp., Pseudomonas spp., Streptococcus pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus in the UK: temporal trends in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales

OBJECTIVES

To monitor and compare trends in the non-susceptibility of bloodstream isolates of pathogens to key antibiotics in the constituent countries of the UK between 2010 and 2014.

METHODS

Routinely generated antibiotic susceptibility test results for bloodstream isolates of Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Klebsiella oxytoca, Pseudomonas spp., Streptococcus pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus were collected from hospital microbiology laboratories in each country.

RESULTS

With the exception of a decrease in the proportion of S. aureus that were MRSA, non-susceptibility to key antibiotics among the pathogens studied remained largely unchanged over the 5 year study period, with any increases in non-susceptibility being small. Although some intercountry variation in the proportions of non-susceptible isolates was seen, apart from MRSA, the differences were generally small (<5%) and fluctuated from year to year, with no country showing consistently higher or lower rates of resistance.

CONCLUSIONS

Collaboration between the constituent countries of the UK allows an integrated approach to nationwide surveillance of antibiotic resistance.

Surveillance of antibiotic resistance

Surveillance involves the collection and analysis of data for the detection and monitoring of threats to public health. Surveillance should also inform as to the epidemiology of the threat and its burden in the population. A further key component of surveillance is the timely feedback of data to stakeholders with a view to generating action aimed at reducing or preventing the public health threat being monitored. Surveillance of antibiotic resistance involves the collection of antibiotic susceptibility test results undertaken by microbiology laboratories on bacteria isolated from clinical samples sent for investigation. Correlation of these data with demographic and clinical data for the patient populations from whom the pathogens were isolated gives insight into the underlying epidemiology and facilitates the formulation of rational interventions aimed at reducing the burden of resistance. This article describes a range of surveillance activities that have been undertaken in the UK over a number of years, together with current interventions being implemented. These activities are not only of national importance but form part of the international response to the global threat posed by antibiotic resistance.

Unabsorbed dura patch removed eight years after pituitary surgery

The Codman ETHISORB Dura Patch is a synthetic, absorbable material whose absorption is complete within approximately 90 days. We report the first case of an unabsorbed Codman Dura patch, in which a patient was presented with nasal obstruction and epistaxis 8 years after pituitary surgery for Cushing's disease.

Global surveillance and response to the threat posed by infectious diseases

The international spread of infectious disease has long been recognised. As early as the 14th century, even though the microbial aetiology of communicable diseases was not understood, international travellers were kept in quarantine to prevent the spread of diseases such as the plague. In modern times, the ready availability of international air travel and other forms of rapid transport has made containing the spread of disease even more of a challenge.

Quantifying the Burden of Hospital-Acquired Bloodstream Infection in Children in England by Estimating Excess Length of Hospital Stay and Mortality Using a Multistate Analysis of Linked, Routinely Collected Data

BACKGROUND

Hospital-acquired bloodstream infection (HA-BSI) is associated with substantial morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs in all patient populations. Young children have been shown to have a high rate of healthcare-associated infections compared with the adult population. We aimed to quantify the excess mortality and length of stay in pediatric patients from HA-BSI.

METHODS

We analyzed data collected retrospectively from a probabilistically linked national database of pediatric (aged 1 month-18 years) in-patients with a microbiologically confirmed HA-BSI in England between January and March 2009. A time-dependent Cox regression model was fit to determine the presence of any effect. Furthermore, a multistate model, adjusted for the time to onset of HA-BSI, was used to compare outcomes in patients with HA-BSI to those without HA-BSI. We further adjusted for patients' characteristics as recorded in hospital admission data.

RESULTS

The dataset comprised 333 605 patients, with 214 cases of HA-BSI. After adjustment for time to HA-BSI and comorbidities, the hazard for discharge (dead or alive) from hospital for patients with HA-BSI was 0.9 times (95% confidence interval [CI], .8-1.1) that of noninfected patients. Excess length of stay associated with all-cause HA-BSI was 1.6 days (95% CI, .2-3.0), although this duration varied by pathogen. Patients with HA-BSI had a 3.6 (95% CI, 1.3-10.4) times higher hazard for in-hospital death than noninfected patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospital-acquired bloodstream infection increased the length of stay and mortality of pediatric inpatients. The results of this study provide an evidence base to judge the health and economic impact of programs to prevent and control HA-BSI in children.

Selecting appropriate empirical antibiotic regimens for paediatric bloodstream infections: application of a Bayesian decision model to local and pooled antimicrobial resistance surveillance data

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of weighted-incidence syndromic combination antibiograms (WISCAs) to inform the selection of empirical antibiotic regimens for suspected paediatric bloodstream infections (BSIs) by comparing WISCAs derived using data from single hospitals and from a multicentre surveillance dataset.

METHODS

WISCAs were developed by estimating the coverage of five empirical antibiotic regimens for childhood BSI using a Bayesian decision tree. The study used microbiological data on ∼2000 bloodstream isolates collected over 2 years from 19 European hospitals. We evaluated the ability of a WISCA to show differences in regimen coverage at two exemplar hospitals. For each, a WISCA was first calculated using only their local data; a second WISCA was calculated using pooled data from all 19 hospitals.

RESULTS

The estimated coverage of the five regimens was 72%-86% for Hospital 1 and 79%-94% for Hospital 2, based on their own data. In both cases, the best regimens could not be definitively identified because the differences in coverage were not statistically significant. For Hospital 1, coverage estimates derived using pooled data gave sufficient precision to reveal clinically important differences among regimens, including high coverage provided by a narrow-spectrum antibiotic combination. For Hospital 2, the hospital and pooled data showed signs of heterogeneity and the use of pooled data was judged not to be appropriate.

CONCLUSIONS

The Bayesian WISCA provides a useful approach to pooling information from different sources to guide empirical therapy and could increase confidence in the selection of narrow-spectrum regimens.

Clostridium difficile toxin testing by National Health Service (NHS) acute Trusts in England: 2008-2013

In October 2007, a governmental 3-year target to reduce Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) by 30%, with financial penalties levied for failure, was introduced in England. This target was met within just 1 year, leading to speculation of 'gaming', with hospitals empirically treating possible CDI in the absence of a microbiological diagnosis, to avoid having to report confirmed cases. An analysis of aggregate mandatory data on levels of testing for C. difficile toxin showed little evidence of a fall in testing during the steepest infection rate reductions, suggesting that this was not a major factor in the decline in CDI.

The Control of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Blood Stream Infections in England

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) blood stream infection (BSI) is a major healthcare burden in some but not all healthcare settings, and it is associated with 10%-20% mortality. The introduction of mandatory reporting in England of MRSA BSI in 2001 was followed in 2004 by the setting of target reductions for all National Health Service hospitals. The original national target of a 50% reduction in MRSA BSI was considered by many experts to be unattainable, and yet this goal has been far exceeded (∼80% reduction with rates still declining). The transformation from endemic to sporadic MRSA BSI involved the implementation of serial national infection prevention directives, and the deployment of expert improvement teams in organizations failed to meet their improvement trajectory targets. We describe and appraise the components of the major public health infection prevention campaign that yielded major reductions in MRSA infection. There are important lessons and opportunities for other healthcare systems where MRSA infection remains endemic.

Thirty day all-cause mortality in patients with Escherichia coli bacteraemia in England

Escherichia coli is the commonest cause of bacteraemia in England, with an incidence of 50.7 cases per 100 000 population in 2011. We undertook a large national study to estimate and identify risk factors for 30-day all-cause mortality in E. coli bacteraemia patients. Records for patients with E. coli bacteraemia reported to the English national mandatory surveillance system between 1 July 2011 and 30 June 2012 were linked to death registrations to determine 30-day all-cause mortality. A multivariable regression model was used to identify factors associated with 30-day all-cause mortality. There were 5220 deaths in 28 616 E. coli bacteraemia patients, a mortality rate of 18.2% (95% CI 17.8-18.7%). Three-quarters of deaths occurred within 14 days of specimen collection. Factors independently associated with increased mortality were: age < 1 year or > 44 years; an underlying respiratory or unknown infection focus; ciprofloxacin non-susceptibility; hospital-onset infection or not being admitted; and bacteraemia occurring in the winter. Female gender and a urogenital focus were associated with a reduction in mortality. This is the first national study of mortality among E. coli bacteraemia patients in England. Interventions to reduce mortality need to be multifaceted and include both primary and secondary healthcare providers. Greater awareness of the risk factors for and symptoms of E. coli bacteraemia may prompt earlier diagnosis and treatment. Changes in antimicrobial resistance patterns need to be monitored for their potential impact on infection and mortality.