Preliminary clinical and cost effectiveness of augmented depression therapy versus cognitive behavioural therapy for the treatment of anhedonic depression (ADepT): a single-centre, open-label, parallel-group, pilot, randomised, controlled trial

Background

Anhedonia (reduced interest/pleasure) symptoms and wellbeing deficits are core to depression and predict a poor prognosis. Current depression psychotherapies fail to target these features adequately, contributing to sub-optimal outcomes. Augmented Depression Therapy (ADepT) has been developed to target anhedonia and wellbeing. We aimed to establish clinical and economic proof of concept for ADepT and to examine feasibility of a future definitive trial comparing ADepT to Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT).

Methods

In this single-centre, open-label, parallel-group, pilot randomised controlled trial, adults meeting diagnostic criteria for a current major depressive episode, scoring ≥10 on the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and exhibiting anhedonic features (PHQ-9 item 1 ≥ 2) were recruited primarily from high intensity Improving Access to Psychological Therapy (IAPT) service waiting lists in Devon, UK. Participants were randomised to receive 20 sessions of CBT or ADepT, using a mimimisation algorithm to balance depression severity and antidepressant use between groups. Treatment was delivered in an out-patient university-based specialist mood disorder clinic. Researcher-blinded assessments were completed at intake and six, 12, and 18 months. Co-primary outcomes were depression (PHQ-9) and wellbeing (Warwick Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale) at 6 months. Primary clinical proof-of-concept analyses were intention to treat. Feasibility (including safety) and health economic analyses used complete case data. This trial is registered at the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN85278228.

Findings

Between 3/29/2017 and 7/31/2018, 82 individuals were recruited (102% of target sample) and 41 individuals were allocated to each arm. A minimum adequate treatment dose was completed by 36/41 (88%) of CBT and 35/41 (85%) of ADepT participants. There were two serious adverse events in each arm (primarily suicide attempts; none of which were judged to be trial- or treatment-related), with no other evidence of harms. Intake and six-month primary outcome data was available for 37/41 (90%) CBT participants and 32/41 (78%) ADepT participants. Between-group effects favoured ADepT over CBT for depression (meanΔ = -1.35, 95% CI = -3.70, 1.00, d = 0.23) and wellbeing (meanΔ = 2.64, 95% CI = -1.71, 6.99, d = 0.27). At 18 months, the advantage of ADepT over CBT was preserved and ADepT had a >80% probability of cost-effectiveness.

Interpretation

These findings provide proof of concept for ADepT and warrant continuation to definitive trial.

Funding

NIHR Career Development Fellowship.

Response adaptive salvage with KTd and ASCT for functional high-risk multiple myeloma-The Australasian Leukemia and Lymphoma Group (ALLG) MM17 Trial

We evaluated re-induction incorporating carfilzomib-thalidomide-dexamethasone (KTd) and autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) for newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) refractory, or demonstrating a suboptimal response, to non-IMID bortezomib-based induction. KTd salvage consisted of thalidomide 100 mg daily and dexamethasone 20 mg orally combined with carfilzomib 56 mg/m² days 1, 2, 8, 9, 15 and 16, of each 28-day cycle. Following four cycles, patients achieving a stringent complete response proceeded to ASCT whereas those who did not received a further two cycles then ASCT. Consolidation consisted of two cycles of KTd then Td to a total of 12 months post-ASCT therapy. Primary end-point was the overall response rate (ORR) with KTd prior to ASCT. Fifty patients were recruited. The ORR was 78% with EuroFlow MRD negativity of 34% in the intention-to-treat population and 65% in the evaluable population at 12 months post-ASCT. With follow-up >38 months median PFS and OS have not been reached with PFS and OS at 36 months of 64% and 80%, respectively. KTd was well tolerated with grade 3 and grade ≥4 adverse events rates of 32% and 10%, respectively. Response adaptive utilisation of KTd with ASCT is associated with both high-quality responses and durable disease control in functional high-risk NDMM.

Protocol for a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial assessing the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of Electronic RIsk-assessment for CAncer for patients in general practice (ERICA)

INTRODUCTION

The UK has worse cancer outcomes than most comparable countries, with a large contribution attributed to diagnostic delay. Electronic risk assessment tools (eRATs) have been developed to identify primary care patients with a ≥2% risk of cancer using features recorded in the electronic record.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial in English primary care. Individual general practices will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to intervention (provision of eRATs for six common cancer sites) or to usual care. The primary outcome is cancer stage at diagnosis, dichotomised to stage 1 or 2 (early) or stage 3 or 4 (advanced) for these six cancers, assessed from National Cancer Registry data. Secondary outcomes include stage at diagnosis for a further six cancers without eRATs, use of urgent referral cancer pathways, total practice cancer diagnoses, routes to cancer diagnosis and 30-day and 1-year cancer survival. Economic and process evaluations will be performed along with service delivery modelling. The primary analysis explores the proportion of patients with early-stage cancer at diagnosis. The sample size calculation used an OR of 0.8 for a cancer being diagnosed at an advanced stage in the intervention arm compared with the control arm, equating to an absolute reduction of 4.8% as an incidence-weighted figure across the six cancers. This requires 530 practices overall, with the intervention active from April 2022 for 2 years.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The trial has approval from London City and East Research Ethics Committee, reference number 19/LO/0615; protocol version 5.0, 9 May 2022. It is sponsored by the University of Exeter. Dissemination will be by journal publication, conferences, use of appropriate social media and direct sharing with cancer policymakers.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN22560297.

Healthcare utilisation, physical activity and mental health during COVID-19 lockdown: an interrupted time-series analysis of older adults in England

COVID-19 measures which reduce interpersonal contact may be effective in containing the transmission, but their impacts on peoples' well-being and daily lives overtime remain unclear. Older adults are more vulnerable to both the virus and social isolation. It is therefore imperative to understand how they were affected during this period. Major concerns arising from the pandemic cover the aspects of mental health, healthcare utilisation and individual behavioural changes. Complementing the existing before-and-after analyses, we explore the impacts of easing and re-introducing COVID-19 measures by using a time-series data in England. The data was collected between May and November 2020 from the monthly surveys of the Platform for Research Online to Investigate Genetics and Cognition in Aging (PROTECT). Chi-squared analysis and interrupted time-series analysis were conducted to examine impacts of easing and re-introducing COVID-19 measures. Overall, mental health improves overtime but at a decreasing rate. The use of telephone/video consultations with a doctor or health professional presented a decreasing trend during the pandemic, whilst that of in-person consultation was increasing overtime. We observed significant variations in the time trends of mental health measures, healthcare utilisation and physical activity following the ease but not the re-introduction of COVID-19 measures. Future research is required to understand if these asymmetric impacts were driven by adaption of the people or stringency of the measures.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10433-022-00741-y.

A group-based behavioural intervention for weight management (PROGROUP) versus usual care in adults with severe obesity: a feasibility randomised controlled trial protocol

Background

Approximately 15 million people in the UK live with obesity, around 5 million of whom have severe obesity (body mass index (BMI) ≥35kg/m²). Having severe obesity markedly compromises health, well-being and quality of life, and substantially reduces life expectancy. These adverse outcomes are prevented or ameliorated by weight loss, for which sustained behavioural change is the cornerstone of treatment. Although NHS specialist ‘Tier 3’ Weight Management Services (T3WMS) support people with severe obesity, using individual and group-based treatment, the current evidence on optimal intervention design and outcomes is limited. Due to heterogeneity of severe obesity, there is a need to tailor treatment to address individual needs. Despite this heterogeneity, there are good reasons to suspect that a structured group-based behavioural intervention may be more effective and cost-effective for the treatment of severe obesity compared to usual care. The aims of this study are to test the feasibility of establishing and delivering a multi-centre randomised controlled clinical trial to compare a group-based behavioural intervention versus usual care in people with severe obesity.

Methods

This feasibility randomised controlled study is a partially clustered multi-centre trial of PROGROUP (a novel group-based behavioural intervention) versus usual care. Adults ≥18 years of age who have been newly referred to and accepted by NHS T3WMS will be eligible if they have a BMI ≥40, or ≥35 kg/m² with comorbidity, are suitable for group-based care and are willing to be randomised. Exclusion criteria are participation in another weight management study, planned bariatric surgery during the trial, and unwillingness or inability to attend group sessions. Outcome assessors will be blinded to treatment allocation and success of blinding will be evaluated. Clinical measures will be collected at baseline, 6 and 12 months post-randomisation. Secondary outcome measures will be self-reported and collected remotely. Process and economic evaluations will be conducted.

Discussion

This randomised feasibility study has been designed to test all the required research procedures and additionally explore three key issues; the feasibility of implementing a complex trial at participating NHS T3WMS, training the multidisciplinary healthcare teams in a standard intervention, and the acceptability of a group intervention for these particularly complex patients.

Trial registration

ISRCTN number 22088800.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40814-022-01167-0.

Women's priorities towards ovarian cancer testing: a best-worst scaling study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the importance of key characteristics relating to diagnostic testing for ovarian cancer and to understand how previous test experience influences priorities.

DESIGN

Case 1 best-worst scaling embedded in an online survey.

SETTING

Primary care diagnostic testing in England and Wales.

PARTICIPANTS

150 women with ovaries over 40 years old living in England and Wales.

METHODS

We used best-worst scaling, a preference-based survey method, to elicit the relative importance of 25 characteristics relating to ovarian cancer testing following a systematic review. Responses were modelled using conditional logit regression. Subgroup analysis investigated variations based on testing history.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Relative importance scores.

RESULTS

'Chance of dying from ovarian cancer' (0.380, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.49) was the most important factor to respondents, closely followed by 'test sensitivity' (0.308, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.40). In contrast, 'time away from usual activities' (-0.244, 95% CI -0.33 to -0.15) and 'gender of healthcare provider' (-0.243, 95% CI -0.35 to -0.14) were least important to respondents overall. Women who had previously undergone testing placed higher importance on certain characteristics including 'openness of healthcare providers' and 'chance of diagnosing another condition' at the expense of reduced emphasis on characteristics such as 'pain and discomfort' and 'time away from usual activities'.

CONCLUSIONS

The results clearly demonstrated items at the extreme, which were most and least important to women considering ovarian cancer testing. Differences in priorities by testing history demonstrate an experience effect, whereby preferences adapt over time based on evidence and experience. Acknowledging these differences helps to identify underlying barriers and facilitators for women with no test experience as well as shortcomings of current service based on women with experience.

Healthcare utilisation and physical activities for older adults with comorbidities in the UK during COVID-19

A major concern with COVID-19 was the impact it would have on individual health, the routine use of healthcare services, and physical activities, especially for older adults with comorbidities. To address this, we studied the association between these variables for older adults during the pandemic. To explore what policy instruments might be effective in mitigating the negative impacts, we investigated the effects of a shielding notice for those identified as vulnerable by the government and social media given it has been an important source for disseminating information of COVID-19. We employed a UK sample with 3,807 participants aged ≥50 from an online survey administered during May and June 2020. Based on numbers of comorbidities, we separated the sample into a higher comorbidity group with those in the upper quartile of the sample (n = 829) and a lower comorbidity group with the remainder (n = 2,978). Statistical methods include chi-squared analyses and cross-sectional regressions. We found that individuals with higher comorbidities were more likely to have poorer self-reported health and mental health and to receive a shielding notice from the government compared to those without (p < 0.05). Decreases in physical activities were associated with poorer self-reported health and the increases were associated with better self-reported health; on the other hand, the decreases were associated with poorer mental health, but the increases did not link to better mental health. Examination of the effects of policy instruments shows that a shielding notice was positively associated with primary care use. The notice generated greater reliance on telephone/video consultations compared to in-person consultations, but the impacts were less strong for people with higher comorbidities. Frequent use of social media raised the probability of increasing physical activities and reduced that of decreasing physical activities, implying social media being an effective tool in promoting physical activities during the lockdown and subsequent restrictions.

Revising the Suspected-Cancer Guidelines: Impacts on Patients' Primary Care Contacts and Costs

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to explore the impact of revising suspected-cancer referral guidelines on primary care contacts and costs.

METHODS

Participants had incident cancer (colorectal, n = 2000; ovary, n = 763; and pancreas, n = 597) codes in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink or England cancer registry. Difference-in-differences analyses explored guideline impacts on contact days and nonzero costs between the first cancer feature and diagnosis. Participants were controls ("old National Institute for Health and Care Excellence [NICE]") or "new NICE" if their index feature was introduced during guideline revision. Model assumptions were inspected visually and by falsification tests. Sensitivity analyses reclassified participants who subsequently presented with features in the original guidelines as "old NICE." For colorectal cancer, sensitivity analysis (n = 3481) adjusted for multimorbidity burden.

RESULTS

Median contact days and costs were, respectively, 4 (interquartile range [IQR] 2-7) and £117.69 (IQR £53.23-£206.65) for colorectal, 5 (IQR 3-9) and £156.92 (IQR £78.46-£272.29) for ovary, and 7 (IQR 4-13) and £230.64 (IQR £120.78-£408.34) for pancreas. Revising ovary guidelines may have decreased contact days (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.74; 95% confidence interval 0.55-1.00; P = .05) with unchanged costs, but parallel trends assumptions were violated. Costs decreased by 13% (equivalent to -£28.05, -£50.43 to -£5.67) after colorectal guidance revision but only in sensitivity analyses adjusting for multimorbidity. Contact days and costs remained unchanged after pancreas guidance revision.

CONCLUSIONS

The main analyses of symptomatic patients suggested that prediagnosis primary care costs remained unchanged after guidance revision for pancreatic cancer. For colorectal cancer, contact days and costs decreased in analyses adjusting for multimorbidity. Revising ovarian cancer guidelines may have decreased primary care contact days but not costs, suggesting increased resource-use intensity; nevertheless, there is evidence of confounding.

Pseudoepitheliomatous keratotic and micaceous balanitis: a series of eight cases

BACKGROUND

Pseudoepitheliomatous keratotic and micaceous balanitis (PEKMB) is a clinicopathological entity characterized clinically by micaceous scale on the glans, and histologically by acanthosis, hyperkeratosis and pseudoepitheliomatous hyperplasia. We present a series of eight cases of this rare condition, the first series of more than two cases to be reported.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the clinical and histological characteristics of cases of PEKMB, and evaluate treatments used and clinical course.

METHODS

This monocentric case series was conducted at the University College London Hospitals tertiary male genital dermatology clinic between April 2018 and August 2020. Eight patients with PEKMB were evaluated. Data were collected on demographics, clinical presentation, histological features, presence of human papilloma virus (HPV), history of lichen sclerosus, treatment of PEKMB and subsequent response, and presence or development of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) or penile intraepithelial neoplasia (PeIN) during follow-up.

RESULTS

Eight Caucasian males presented with clinical and histological evidence of PEKMB. Seven had a background of lichen sclerosus; two had failed treatment with superpotent topical steroids and four had symptoms for three or more years prior to circumcision. There was no clinical or histological relationship with HPV infection, and p16 staining was negative. HPV PCR, performed in two cases, was negative. Basal atypia, insufficient to amount to PeIN, was present in six patients. One patient progressed to PeIN during follow-up, and no patient progressed to invasive malignancy. Five patients were treated successfully with glans resurfacing and split skin graft reconstruction.

CONCLUSIONS

Our observations demonstrate that PEKMB represents a form of chronic, undiagnosed or misdiagnosed, inadequately treated or treatment refractory, unstable lichen sclerosus. The significant potential for squamous carcinogenesis (differentiated PeIN and verrucous carcinoma) can be mitigated by timely diagnosis and treatment. Glans resurfacing and split skin graft reconstruction appears to be a successful treatment modality in patients with refractory disease.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of disease burden of healthcare-associated infections in China: an economic burden perspective from general hospitals

BACKGROUND

Healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) are a global public health issue. However, the economic burden attributable to HAIs at a national level is unknown in China. The aim of this systematic review was to estimate the direct economic burden caused by HAIs in China.

METHODS

Medline, EMBASE and Chinese Journals Online databases were searched, including studies published from 2009 to 2019. The pooled estimates with 95% Confidential Interval were calculated with Quantile Estimation. The random effect model of the DerSimonian-Laird method was used. The statistical significance was set as P<0.05.

RESULTS

2,756 publications were identified; 6 studies were included in a meta-analysis to calculate the pooled estimates of direct economic burden, while 5 were included in the pooled estimates of the additional economic burden. The pooled median estimates of the total medical expenditure, the medicine expenditure and hospitalisation days per inpatient of patients with HAIs were ¥34,415.62, ¥20,065.21 and 34.01 days, respectively (P <0.0001). The pooled median estimates of the differences of the total medical expenditure, the medicine expenditure and hospitalisation days per inpatient between patients with HAIs and patients without HAIs were ¥24,881.37, ¥9,438.46 and 13.89 days, respectively (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The cost of care for patients with HAIs was significantly higher than that for those without HAIs. This excess economic burden is likely to impact on patients and their families as well as health service providers and the health care system as a whole. Effective surveillance systems and cost-effective interventions are needed to control HAIs.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) for the detection of prostate cancer in symptomatic patients

BACKGROUND

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is a commonly used test to detect prostate cancer. Attention has mostly focused on the use of PSA in screening asymptomatic patients, but the diagnostic accuracy of PSA for prostate cancer in patients with symptoms is less well understood.

METHODS

A systematic database search was conducted of Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science, and the Cochrane library. Studies reporting the diagnostic accuracy of PSA for prostate cancer in patients with symptoms were included. Two investigators independently assessed the titles and abstracts of all database search hits and full texts of potentially relevant studies against the inclusion criteria, and data extracted into a proforma. Study quality was assessed using the QUADAS-2 tool by two investigators independently. Summary estimates of diagnostic accuracy were calculated with meta-analysis using bivariate mixed effects regression.

RESULTS

Five hundred sixty-three search hits were assessed by title and abstract after de-duplication, with 75 full text papers reviewed. Nineteen studies met the inclusion criteria, 18 of which were conducted in secondary care settings with one from a screening study cohort. All studies used histology obtained by transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy (TRUS) as a reference test; usually only for patients with elevated PSA or abnormal prostate examination. Pooled data from 14,489 patients found estimated sensitivity of PSA for prostate cancer was 0.93 (95% CI 0.88, 0.96) and specificity was 0.20 (95% CI 0.12, 0.33). The area under the hierarchical summary receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.72 (95% CI 0.68, 0.76). All studies were assessed as having a high risk of bias in at least one QUADAS-2 domain.

CONCLUSIONS

Currently available evidence suggests PSA is highly sensitive but poorly specific for prostate cancer detection in symptomatic patients. However, significant limitations in study design and reference test reduces the certainty of this estimate. There is very limited evidence for the performance of PSA in primary care, the healthcare setting where most PSA testing is performed.

Behavioral Theories That Have Influenced the Way Health State Preferences Are Elicited and Interpreted: A Bibliometric Mapping Analysis of the Time Trade-Off Method With VOSviewer Visualization

Aim

The aim of this paper is to develop an understanding of how behavioral theories have influenced the way preferences for health-related quality of life are elicited and interpreted. We focus on the Time Trade-off (TTO) method given it represents the quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) concept-that survival in less-than-full health can be deemed equivalent to a shorter survival in full health. To our knowledge this is the first review using a combination of systematic scoping review, bibliometrics and VOSviewer visualization to map the development of ideas in health economics.

Methods

A priori, we selected three behavioral theories to explore within our review, referred to here as Expected Utility Theory, Non-Expected Utility Theory and Probabilistic Choice Theory. A fourth topic, Order Effects, is defined broadly to encompass behavioral theories around timing/sequence of events. For the main search, Scopus was used to identify literature that had (a) elicited TTO values and/or (b) contributed to the way TTO values were elicited and interpreted, from inception to July 2021. Papers that focused on the latter category were given the label "behavioral" and underwent additional analyses. A two stage-screening was applied to assess eligibility. Co-citation, co-authorship and co-occurrence of keywords was used to chart the development of TTO over time.

Results

A total of 1,727 records were retrieved from Scopus and were supplemented by an additional 188 papers. There were 856 applied and 280 behavioral papers included in the final corpus, with the behavioral set split equally into four sets of 70 papers to chart the development of keywords over time: (1) 1972-1999; (2) 2000-2010, (3) 2010-2015 and (4) 2015-2021.

Discussion

The keyword analysis suggested that whilst some ideas transition quickly from economic theory to the TTO literature, such as the impact of Order Effects, others take longer to be assimilated, for example Non-Expected Utility models or failure of constant discounting. It is therefore important that researchers within health economics work more closely with those in mainstream economics and keep abreast of the wider economics and behavioral sciences to expedite the uptake of new and relevant ideas.

A Knowledge Graph to Understand Nursing Big Data: Case Example for Guidance

PURPOSE

To provide a summary of research on ontology development in the Centre of eIntegrated Care at Dublin City University, Ireland.

DESIGN

Design science methods using Open Innovation 2.0.

METHODS

This was a co-participatory study focusing on adoption of health informatics standards and translation of nursing knowledge to advance nursing theory through a nursing knowledge graph (NKG). In this article we outline groundwork research conducted through a focused analysis to advance structural interoperability and to inform integrated care in Ireland. We provide illustrated details on a simple example of initial research available through open access.

FINDINGS

For this phase of development, the initial completed research is presented and discussed.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude by promoting the use of knowledge graphs for visualization of diverse knowledge translation, which can be used as a primer to gain valuable insights into nursing interventions to inform big data science in the future.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

In line with stated global policy, the uptake and use of health informatics standards in design science within the profession of nursing is a priority. Nursing leaders should initially focus on health informatics standards relating to structural interoperability to inform development of NKGs. This will provide a robust foundation to gain valuable insights into articulating the nursing contribution in relation to the design of digital health and progress the nursing contribution to targeted data sources for the advancement of United Nations Sustainable Development Goal Three.

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 within the healthcare environment: a multi-centre study conducted during the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in England

BACKGROUND

Understanding how severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is spread within the hospital setting is essential in order to protect staff, implement effective infection control measures, and prevent nosocomial transmission.

METHODS

The presence of SARS-CoV-2 in the air and on environmental surfaces around hospitalized patients, with and without respiratory symptoms, was investigated. Environmental sampling was undertaken within eight hospitals in England during the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak. Samples were analysed using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and virus isolation assays.

FINDINGS

SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected on 30 (8.9%) of 336 environmental surfaces. Cycle threshold values ranged from 28.8 to 39.1, equating to 2.2 x 105 to 59 genomic copies/swab. Concomitant bacterial counts were low, suggesting that the cleaning performed by nursing and domestic staff across all eight hospitals was effective. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in four of 55 air samples taken <1 m from four different patients. In all cases, the concentration of viral RNA was low and ranged from <10 to 460 genomic copies/m3 air. Infectious virus was not recovered from any of the PCR-positive samples analysed.

CONCLUSIONS

Effective cleaning can reduce the risk of fomite (contact) transmission, but some surface types may facilitate the survival, persistence and/or dispersal of SARS-CoV-2. The presence of low or undetectable concentrations of viral RNA in the air supports current guidance on the use of specific personal protective equipment for aerosol-generating and non-aerosol-generating procedures.

Singing for people with aphasia (SPA): results of a pilot feasibility randomised controlled trial of a group singing intervention investigating acceptability and feasibility

OBJECTIVES

Pilot feasibility randomised controlled trial (RCT) for the singing groups for people with aphasia (SPA) intervention to assess: (1) the acceptability and feasibility of participant recruitment, randomisation and allocation concealment; (2) retention rates; (3) variance of continuous outcome measures; (4) outcome measure completion and participant burden; (5) fidelity of intervention delivery; (6) SPA intervention costs; (7) acceptability and feasibility of trial and intervention to participants and others involved.

DESIGN

A two-group, assessor-blinded, randomised controlled external pilot trial with parallel mixed methods process evaluation and economic evaluation.

SETTING

Three community-based cohorts in the South-West of England.

PARTICIPANTS

Eligible participants with post-stroke aphasia were randomised 1:1 to SPA or control.

INTERVENTION

The manualised SPA intervention was delivered over 10 weekly singing group sessions, led by a music facilitator and assisted by an individual with post-stroke aphasia. The intervention was developed using the Information-Motivation-Behavioural skills model of behaviour change and targeted psychosocial outcomes. Control and intervention participants all received an aphasia information resource pack.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Collected at baseline, 3 and 6 months post-randomisation, candidate primary outcomes were measured (well-being, quality of life and social participation) as well as additional clinical outcomes. Feasibility, acceptability and process outcomes included recruitment and retention rates, and measurement burden; and trial experiences were explored in qualitative interviews.

RESULTS

Of 87 individuals screened, 42 participants were recruited and 41 randomised (SPA=20, control=21); 36 participants (SPA=17, control=19) completed 3-month follow-up, 34 (SPA=18, control=16) completed 6-month follow-up. Recruitment and retention (83%) were acceptable for a definitive RCT, and participants did not find the study requirements burdensome. High fidelity of the intervention delivery was shown by high attendance rates and facilitator adherence to the manual, and participants found SPA acceptable. Sample size estimates for a definitive RCT and primary/secondary outcomes were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

The SPA pilot RCT fulfilled its objectives, and demonstrated that a definitive RCT of the intervention would be both feasible and acceptable.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03076736.

Trends in time to cancer diagnosis around the period of changing national guidance on referral of symptomatic patients: A serial cross-sectional study using UK electronic healthcare records from 2006-17

BACKGROUND

UK primary-care referral guidance describes the signs, symptoms, and test results ("features") of undiagnosed cancer. Guidance revision in 2015 liberalised investigation by introducing more low-risk features. We studied adults with cancer whose features were in the 2005 guidance ("Old-NICE") or were introduced in the revision ("New-NICE"). We compared time to diagnosis between the groups, and its trend over 2006-2017.

METHODS

Clinical Practice Research Datalink records were analysed for adults with incident myeloma, breast, bladder, colorectal, lung, oesophageal, ovarian, pancreatic, prostate, stomach or uterine cancers in 1/1/2006-31/12/2017. Cancer-specific features in the year before diagnosis were used to create New-NICE and Old-NICE groups. Diagnostic interval was time between the index feature and diagnosis. Semiparametric varying-coefficient analyses compared diagnostic intervals between New-NICE and Old-NICE groups over 1/1/2006-31/12/2017.

RESULTS

Over all cancers (N = 83,935), median (interquartile range) Old-NICE diagnostic interval rose over 2006-2017, from 51 (20-132) to 64 (30-148) days, with increases in breast (15 vs 25 days), lung (103 vs 135 days), ovarian (65·5 vs 100 days), prostate (80 vs 93 days) and stomach (72·5 vs 102 days) cancers. Median New-NICE values were consistently longer (99, 40-212 in 2006 vs 103, 42-236 days in 2017) than Old-NICE values over all cancers. After guidance revision, New-NICE diagnostic intervals became shorter than Old-NICE values for colorectal cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite improvements for colorectal cancer, scope remains to reduce diagnostic intervals for most cancers. Liberalised investigation requires protecting and enhancing cancer-diagnostic services to avoid their becoming a rate-limiting step in the diagnostic pathway.

Measuring the impact of national guidelines: What methods can be used to uncover time-varying effects for healthcare evaluations?

We examine the suitability of three methods using patient-level data to evaluate the time-varying impacts of national healthcare guidelines. Such guidelines often codify progressive change and are implemented gradually; for example, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) suspected-cancer referral guidelines. These were revised on June 23, 2015, to include more cancer symptoms and test results ("features"), partly reflecting changing practice. We explore the time-varying impact of guideline revision on time to colorectal cancer diagnosis, which is linked to improved outcomes in decision-analytic models. We included 11,842 patients diagnosed in 01/01/2006-31/12/2017 in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink with England cancer registry data linkage. Patients were classified by whether their first pre-diagnostic cancer feature was in the original guidelines (NICE-2005) or was added during the revision (NICE-2015-only). Outcome was diagnostic interval: time from first cancer feature to diagnosis. All analyses adjusted for age and sex. Two difference-in-differences analyses used either a Pre (01/08/2012-31/12/2014, n = 2243) and Post (01/08/2015-31/12/2017, n = 1017) design, or event-study cohorts (2006-2017 vs 2015) to estimate change in diagnostic interval attributable to official implementation of the revised guidelines. A semiparametric varying-coefficient model analysed the difference in diagnostic interval between the NICE groups over time. After model estimation, primary and broader treatment effects of guideline content and implementation were measured. The event-study difference-in-differences and the semiparametric varying-coefficient methods showed that shorter diagnostic intervals were attributable to official implementation of the revised guidelines. This impact was only detectable by pre-to-post difference-in-differences when the pre/post periods were selected according to the estimation results from the varying-coefficient model. Formal tests of the parametric models, which are special cases of the semiparametric model, suggest that they are misspecified. We conclude that the semiparametric method is well suited to explore the time-varying impacts of guidelines codifying progressive change.

The heterogeneous causal effects of neonatal care: a model of endogenous demand for multiple treatment options based on geographical access to care

Neonatal units in the UK are organised into three levels, from highest Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU), to Local Neonatal Unit (LNU) to lowest Special Care Unit (SCU). We model the endogenous treatment selection of neonatal care unit of birth to estimate the average and marginal treatment effects of different neonatal designations on infant mortality, length of stay and hospital costs. We use prognostic factors, survival and hospital care use data on all preterm births in England for 2014-2015, supplemented by national reimbursement tariffs and instrumental variables of travel time from a geographic information system. The data were consistent with a model of demand for preterm birth care driven by physical access. In-hospital mortality of infants born before 32 weeks was 8.5% overall, and 1.2 (95% CI: -0.7, 3.2) percentage points lower for live births in hospitals with NICU or SCU compared to those with an LNU according to instrumental variable estimates. We find imprecise differences in average total hospital costs by unit designation, with positive unobserved selection of those with higher unexplained absolute and incremental costs into NICU. Our results suggest a limited scope for improvement in infant mortality by increasing in-utero transfers based on unit designation alone.

Evaluating diagnostic strategies for early detection of cancer: the CanTest framework

BACKGROUND

Novel diagnostic triage and testing strategies to support early detection of cancer could improve clinical outcomes. Most apparently promising diagnostic tests ultimately fail because of inadequate performance in real-world, low prevalence populations such as primary care or general community populations. They should therefore be systematically evaluated before implementation to determine whether they lead to earlier detection, are cost-effective, and improve patient safety and quality of care, while minimising over-investigation and over-diagnosis.

METHODS

We performed a systematic scoping review of frameworks for the evaluation of tests and diagnostic approaches.

RESULTS

We identified 16 frameworks: none addressed the entire continuum from test development to impact on diagnosis and patient outcomes in the intended population, nor the way in which tests may be used for triage purposes as part of a wider diagnostic strategy. Informed by these findings, we developed a new framework, the 'CanTest Framework', which proposes five iterative research phases forming a clear translational pathway from new test development to health system implementation and evaluation.

CONCLUSION

This framework is suitable for testing in low prevalence populations, where tests are often applied for triage testing and incorporated into a wider diagnostic strategy. It has relevance for a wide range of stakeholders including patients, policymakers, purchasers, healthcare providers and industry.

Do time trade-off values fully capture attitudes that are relevant to health-related choices?

Previous research has shown that demographics, beliefs, and self-reported own health influence TTO values. Our hypothesis is that attitudes towards length and quality of life influence TTO values, but should no longer affect a set of related choices that are based on respondents' own TTO scores. A representative sample of 1339 respondents was asked their level of agreement to four statements relating to the importance of quality and length of life. Respondents then went on to value 4 EQ-5D 5L states using an online interactive survey and a related set of 6 pairwise health-related choice questions, set up, so that respondents should be indifferent between choice options. We explored the impact of attitudes using regression analysis for TTO values and a logit model for choices. TTO values were correlated with the attitudes and were found to have a residual impact on the choices. In particular, those respondents who preferred quality of life over length of life gave less weight to the differences in years and more weight to differences in quality of life in these choice. We conclude that although the TTO responses reflect attitudes, these attitudes continue to affect health-related choices.

Evaluating Augmented Depression Therapy (ADepT): study protocol for a pilot randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

While existing psychological treatments for depression are effective for many, a significant proportion of depressed individuals do not respond to current approaches and few remain well over the long-term. Anhedonia (a loss of interest or pleasure) is a core symptom of depression which predicts a poor prognosis but has been neglected by existing treatments. Augmented Depression Therapy (ADepT) has been co-designed with service users to better target anhedonia alongside other features of depression. This mixed methods pilot trial aims to establish proof of concept for ADepT and to examine the feasibility and acceptability of a future definitive trial evaluating the clinical and cost-effectiveness of ADepT, compared to an evidence-based mainstream therapy (Cognitive Behavioural Therapy; CBT) in the acute treatment of depression, the prevention of subsequent depressive relapse, and the enhancement of wellbeing.

METHODS

We aim to recruit 80 depressed participants and randomise them 1:1 to receive ADepT (15 weekly acute and 5 booster sessions in following year) or CBT (20 weekly acute sessions). Clinical and health economic assessments will take place at intake and at 6-, 12-, and 18-month follow-up. Reductions in PHQ-9 depression severity and increases in WEMWBS wellbeing at 6-month assessment (when acute treatment should be completed) are the co-primary outcomes. Quantitative and qualitative process evaluation will assess mechanism of action, implementation issues, and contextual moderating factors. To evaluate proof of concept, intake-post effect sizes and the proportion of individuals showing reliable and clinically significant change on outcome measures in each arm at each follow-up will be reported. To evaluate feasibility and acceptability, we will examine recruitment, retention, treatment completion, and data completeness rates and feedback from patients and therapists about their experience of study participation and therapy. Additionally, we will establish the cost of delivery of ADepT.

DISCUSSION

We will proceed to definitive trial if any concerns about the safety, acceptability, feasibility, and proof of concept of ADepT and trial procedures can be rectified, and we recruit, retain, and collect follow-up data on at least 60% of the target sample.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISCRTN85278228, registered 27/03/2017.

A framework to address key issues of neonatal service configuration in England: the NeoNet multimethods study

Background

There is an inherent tension in neonatal services between the efficiency and specialised care that comes with centralisation and the provision of local services with associated ease of access and community benefits. This study builds on previous work in South West England to address these issues at a national scale.

Objectives

(1) To develop an analytical framework to address key issues of neonatal service configuration in England, (2) to investigate visualisation tools to facilitate the communication of findings to stakeholder groups and (3) to assess parental preferences in relation to service configuration alternatives.

Main outcome measures

The ability to meet nurse staffing guidelines, volumes of units, costs, mortality, number and distance of transfers, travel distances and travel times for parents.

Design

Descriptive statistics, location analysis, mathematical modelling, discrete event simulation and economic analysis were used. Qualitative methods were used to interview policy-makers and parents. A parent advisory group supported the study.

Setting

NHS neonatal services across England.

Data

Neonatal care data were sourced from the National Neonatal Research Database. Information on neonatal units was drawn from the National Neonatal Audit Programme. Geographic and demographic data were sourced from the Office for National Statistics. Travel time data were retrieved via a geographic information system. Birth data were sourced from Hospital Episode Statistics. Parental cost data were collected via a survey.

Results

Location analysis shows that to achieve 100% of births in units with ≥ 6000 births per year, the number of birth centres would need to be reduced from 161 to approximately 72, with more parents travelling > 30 minutes. The maximum number of neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) needed to achieve 100% of very low-birthweight infants attending high-volume units is 36 with existing NICUs, or 48 if NICUs are located wherever there is currently a neonatal unit of any level. Simulation modelling further demonstrated the workforce implications of different configurations. Mortality modelling shows that the birth of very preterm infants in high-volume hospitals reduces mortality (a conservative estimate of a 1.2-percentage-point lower risk) relative to these births in other hospitals. It is currently not possible to estimate the impact of mortality for infants transferred into NICUs. Cost modelling shows that the mean length of stay following a birth in a high-volume hospital is 9 days longer and the mean cost is £5715 more than for a birth in another neonatal unit. In addition, the incremental cost per neonatal life saved is £460,887, which is comparable to other similar life-saving interventions. The analysis of parent costs identified unpaid leave entitlement, food, travel, accommodation, baby care and parking as key factors. The qualitative study suggested that central concerns were the health of the baby and mother, communication by medical teams and support for families.

Limitations

The following factors could not be modelled because of a paucity of data – morbidity outcomes, the impact of transfers and the maternity/neonatal service interface.

Conclusions

An evidence-based framework was developed to inform the configuration of neonatal services and model system performance from the perspectives of both service providers and parents.

Future work

To extend the modelling to encompass the interface between maternity and neonatal services.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Singing for people with aphasia (SPA): a protocol for a pilot randomised controlled trial of a group singing intervention to improve well-being

INTRODUCTION

The singing for people with aphasia (SPA) intervention aims to improve quality of life and well-being for people with poststroke aphasia. A definitive randomised controlled trial (RCT) is required to assess the clinical and cost effectiveness of SPA. The purpose of this pilot study is to assess the feasibility of such a definitive trial and inform its design.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A two-group, assessor-blinded, randomised controlled external pilot trial with parallel mixed methods process evaluation and economic evaluation. Forty-eight participants discharged from clinical speech and language therapy will be individually randomised 1:1 to SPA (10 group sessions plus a resource booklet) or control (resource booklet only). Outcome assessment at baseline, 3 and 6 months postrandomisation include: ICEpop CAPability measure for adults, Stroke and Aphasia Quality of Life, EQ-5D-5L, modified Reintegration into Normal Living Index, Communication Outcome After Stroke, Very Short Version of the Minnesota Aphasia Test, Service Receipt Inventory and Care Related Quality of Life. Feasibility, acceptability and process outcomes include recruitment and retention rates, with measurement burden and trial experiences being explored in qualitative interviews (15 participants, 2 music facilitators and 2 music champions). Analyses include: descriptive statistics, with 95% CIs where appropriate; qualitative themes; intervention fidelity from videos and session checklists; rehearsal of health economic analysis.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

NHS National Research Ethics Service and the Health Research Authority confirmed approval in April 2017; recruitment commenced in June 2017. Outputs will include: pilot data to inform whether to proceed to a definitive RCT and support a funding application; finalised intervention manual for multicentre replication of SPA; presentations at conferences, public involvement events; internationally recognised peer reviewed journal publications, open access sources and media releases.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03076736.

Cost-effectiveness of a domestic violence and abuse training and support programme in primary care in the real world: updated modelling based on an MRC phase IV observational pragmatic implementation study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the implementation of the Identification and Referral to Improve Safety (IRIS) programme using up-to-date real-world information on costs and effectiveness from routine clinical practice. A Markov model was constructed to estimate mean costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of IRIS versus usual care per woman registered at a general practice from a societal and health service perspective with a 10-year time horizon.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Cost-utility analysis in UK general practices, including data from six sites which have been running IRIS for at least 2 years across England.

PARTICIPANTS

Based on the Markov model, which uses health states to represent possible outcomes of the intervention, we stipulated a hypothetical cohort of 10 000 women aged 16 years or older.

INTERVENTIONS

The IRIS trial was a randomised controlled trial that tested the effectiveness of a primary care training and support intervention to improve the response to women experiencing domestic violence and abuse, and found it to be cost-effective. As a result, the IRIS programme has been implemented across the UK, generating data on costs and effectiveness outside a trial context.

RESULTS

The IRIS programme saved £14 per woman aged 16 years or older registered in general practice (95% uncertainty interval -£151 to £37) and produced QALY gains of 0.001 per woman (95% uncertainty interval -0.005 to 0.006). The incremental net monetary benefit was positive both from a societal and National Health Service perspective (£42 and £22, respectively) and the IRIS programme was cost-effective in 61% of simulations using real-life data when the cost-effectiveness threshold was £20 000 per QALY gained as advised by National Institute for Health and Care Excellence.

CONCLUSION

The IRIS programme is likely to be cost-effective and cost-saving from a societal perspective in the UK and cost-effective from a health service perspective, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these results, reflected in the large uncertainty intervals.

Opioid prescribing for chronic musculoskeletal pain in UK primary care: results from a cohort analysis of the COPERS trial

OBJECTIVE

To establish the level of opioid prescribing for patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain in a sample of patients from primary care and to estimate prescription costs.

DESIGN

Secondary data analyses from a two-arm pragmatic randomised controlled trial (COPERS) testing the effectiveness of group self-management course and usual care against relaxation and usual care for patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain (ISRCTN 24426731).

SETTING

25 general practices and two community musculoskeletal services in the UK (London and Midlands).

PARTICIPANTS

703 chronic pain participants; 81% white, 67% female, enrolled in the COPERS trial.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Anonymised prescribing data over 12 months extracted from GP electronic records.

RESULTS

Of the 703 trial participants with chronic musculoskeletal pain, 413 (59%) patients were prescribed opioids. Among those prescribed an opioid, the number of opioid prescriptions varied from 1 to 52 per year. A total of 3319 opioid prescriptions were issued over the study period, of which 53% (1768/3319) were for strong opioids (tramadol, buprenorphine, morphine, oxycodone, fentanyl and tapentadol). The mean number of opioid prescriptions per patient prescribed any opioid was 8.0 (SD=7.9). A third of patients on opioids were prescribed more than one type of opioid; the most frequent combinations were: codeine plus tramadol and codeine plus morphine. The cost of opioid prescriptions per patient per year varied from £3 to £4844. The average annual prescription cost was £24 (SD=29) for patients prescribed weak opioids and £174 (SD=421) for patients prescribed strong opioids. Approximately 40% of patients received >3 prescriptions of strong opioids per year, with an annual cost of £236 per person.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term prescribing of opioids for chronic musculoskeletal pain is common in primary care. For over a quarter of patients receiving strong opioids, these drugs may have been overprescribed according to national guidelines.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN24426731; Post-results.

Physical activity, sleep, and fatigue in community dwelling Stroke Survivors

Stroke can lead to physiological and psychological impairments and impact individuals' physical activity (PA), fatigue and sleep patterns. We analysed wrist-worn accelerometry data and the Fatigue Assessment Scale from 41 stroke survivors following a physical rehabilitation programme, to examine relationships between PA levels, fatigue and sleep. Validated acceleration thresholds were used to quantify time spent in each PA intensity/sleep category. Stroke survivors performed less moderate to vigorous PA (MVPA) in 10 minute bouts than the National Stroke guidelines recommend. Regression analysis revealed associations at baseline between light PA and fatigue (p = 0.02) and MVPA and sleep efficiency (p = 0.04). Light PA was positively associated with fatigue at 6 months (p = 0.03), whilst sleep efficiency and fatigue were associated at 9 months (p = 0.02). No other effects were shown at baseline, 6 or 9 months. The magnitude of these associations were small and are unlikely to be clinically meaningful. Larger trials need to examine the efficacy and utility of accelerometry to assess PA and sleep in stroke survivors.

Community-based rehabilitation training after stroke: results of a pilot randomised controlled trial (ReTrain) investigating acceptability and feasibility

OBJECTIVES

To assess acceptability and feasibility of trial processes and the Rehabilitation Training (ReTrain) intervention including an assessment of intervention fidelity.

DESIGN

A two-group, assessor-blinded, randomised controlled trial with parallel mixed methods process and economic evaluations.

SETTING

Community settings across two sites in Devon.

PARTICIPANTS

Eligible participants were: 18 years old or over, with a diagnosis of stroke and with self-reported mobility issues, no contraindications to physical activity, discharged from National Health Service or any other formal rehabilitation programme at least 1 month before, willing to be randomised to either control or ReTrain and attend the training venue, possessing cognitive capacity and communication ability sufficient to participate. Participants were individually randomised (1:1) via a computer-generated randomisation sequence minimised for time since stroke and level of functional disability. Only outcome assessors independent of the research team were blinded to group allocation.

INTERVENTIONS

ReTrain comprised (1) an introductory one-to-one session; (2) ten, twice-weekly group classes with up to two trainers and eight clients; (3) a closing one-to-one session, followed by three drop-in sessions over the subsequent 3 months. Participants received a bespoke home-based training programme. All participants received treatment as usual. The control group received an exercise after stroke advice booklet.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Candidate primary outcomes included functional mobility and physical activity.

RESULTS

Forty-five participants were randomised (ReTrain=23; Control=22); data were available from 40 participants at 6 months of follow-up (ReTrain=21; Control=19) and 41 at 9 months of follow-up (ReTrain=21; Control=20). We demonstrated ability to recruit and retain participants. Participants were not burdened by the requirements of the study. We were able to calculate sample estimates for candidate primary outcomes and test procedures for process and health economic evaluations.

CONCLUSIONS

All objectives were fulfilled and indicated that a definitive trial of ReTrain is feasible and acceptable.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02429180; Results.

Determinants of vitamin D status in pregnant women and neonates

OBJECTIVES

Evidence suggests a beneficial effect of vitamin D on perinatal health; however, low vitamin D status is prevalent in pregnant women and neonates. The objective was to determine factors that are associated with vitamin D status of mothers in early pregnancy and neonates.

METHODS

The study comprised 1,635 pregnant women from Quebec City and Halifax, Canada, 2002-2010. Vitamin D status was based on the concentration of 25-hydroxy-vitamin D [25(OH)D] determined with a chemiluminescence immunoassay in maternal sera collected at a median of 15 weeks' gestation and in neonatal cord sera at delivery. A questionnaire with information on potential determinants was completed midpregnancy.

RESULTS

A total of 44.8% of mothers and 24.4% of neonates had 25(OH)D concentrations &lt;50 nmol/L. Adjusted mean (95% confidence interval) maternal 25(OH)D levels were higher in summer than in winter by 16.1 nmol/L (13.6-18.7), and in those in the highest versus the lowest category of education by 6.1 nmol/L (0.5-11.8), in BMI &lt;25 kg/m2 versus BMI ≥35 kg/m2 by 8.2 nmol/L (4.0-12.3), and in the highest versus the lowest physical activity category by up to 9.5 nmol/L (2.9-16.1). Determinants of neonatal 25(OH)D levels were similar but also included maternal age, dairy intake, supplement use and 25(OH)D level.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that vitamin D status of pregnant women and/or neonates might be improved through supplementation, adequate dairy intake, a move towards a healthy pre-pregnancy body weight, and participation in physical activity. Controlled studies are needed to determine the effectiveness of interventions aimed at these factors.

Autologous transplant vs oral chemotherapy and lenalidomide in newly diagnosed young myeloma patients: a pooled analysis

In newly diagnosed myeloma patients, upfront autologous transplant (ASCT) prolongs progression-free survival 1 (PFS1) compared with chemotherapy plus lenalidomide (CC+R). Salvage ASCT at first relapse may still effectively rescue patients who did not receive upfront ASCT. To evaluate the long-term benefit of upfront ASCT vs CC+R and the impact of salvage ASCT in patients who received upfront CC+R, we conducted a pooled analysis of 2 phase III trials (RV-MM-209 and EMN-441). Primary endpoints were PFS1, progression-free survival 2 (PFS2), overall survival (OS). A total of 268 patients were randomized to 2 courses of melphalan 200 mg/m² and ASCT (MEL200-ASCT) and 261 to CC+R. Median follow-up was 46 months. MEL200-ASCT significantly improved PFS1 (median: 42 vs 24 months, HR 0.53; P<0.001), PFS2 (4 years: 71 vs 54%, HR 0.53, P<0.001) and OS (4 years: 84 vs 70%, HR 0.51, P<0.001) compared with CC+R. The advantage was noticed in good and bad prognosis patients. Only 53% of patients relapsing from CC+R received ASCT at first relapse. Upfront ASCT significantly reduced the risk of death (HR 0.51; P=0.007) in comparison with salvage ASCT. In conclusion, these data confirm the role of upfront ASCT as the standard approach for all young myeloma patients.

Community-based Rehabilitation Training after stroke: protocol of a pilot randomised controlled trial (ReTrain)

INTRODUCTION

The Rehabilitation Training (ReTrain) intervention aims to improve functional mobility, adherence to poststroke exercise guidelines and quality of life for people after stroke. A definitive randomised controlled trial (RCT) is required to assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of ReTrain, which is based on Action for Rehabilitation from Neurological Injury (ARNI). The purpose of this pilot study is to assess the feasibility of such a definitive trial and inform its design.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A 2-group, assessor-blinded, randomised controlled external pilot trial with parallel mixed-methods process evaluation and economic evaluation. 48 participants discharged from clinical rehabilitation despite residual physical disability will be individually randomised 1:1 to ReTrain (25 sessions) or control (exercise advice booklet). Outcome assessment at baseline, 6 and 9 months include Rivermead Mobility Index; Timed Up and Go Test; modified Patient-Specific Functional Scale; 7-day accelerometry; Stroke Self-efficacy Questionnaire, exercise diary, Fatigue Assessment Scale, exercise beliefs and self-efficacy questionnaires, SF-12, EQ-5D-5L, Stroke Quality of Life, Carer Burden Index and Service Receipt Inventory. Feasibility, acceptability and process outcomes include recruitment and retention rates; with measurement burden and trial experiences being explored in qualitative interviews (20 participants, 3 intervention providers). Analyses include descriptive statistics, with 95% CI where appropriate; qualitative themes; intervention fidelity from videos and session checklists; rehearsal of health economic analysis.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

National Health Service (NHS) National Research Ethics Service approval granted in April 2015; recruitment started in June. Preliminary studies suggested low risk of serious adverse events; however (minor) falls, transitory muscle soreness and high levels of postexercise fatigue are expected. Outputs include pilot data to inform whether to proceed to a definitive RCT and support a funding application; finalised Trainer and Intervention Delivery manuals for multicentre replication of ReTrain; presentations at conferences, public involvement events; internationally recognised peer-reviewed journal publications, open access sources and media releases.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02429180; Pre-results.

Recreational physical activity in natural environments and implications for health: A population based cross-sectional study in England

BACKGROUND

Building on evidence that natural environments (e.g. parks, woodlands, beaches) are key locations for physical activity, we estimated the total annual amount of adult recreational physical activity in England's natural environments, and assessed implications for population health.

METHODS

A cross-sectional analysis of six waves (2009/10-2014/5) of the nationally representative, Monitor of Engagement with the Natural Environment survey (n=280,790). The survey uses a weekly quota sample, and population weights, to estimate nature visit frequency across England, and provides details on a single, randomly selected visit (n=112,422), including: a) duration; b) activity; and c) environment type.

RESULTS

Approximately 8.23 million (95% CIs: 7.93, 8.54) adults (19.5% of the population) made at least one 'active visit' (i.e. ≥30min, ≥3 METs) to natural environments in the previous week, resulting in 1.23 billion (1.14, 1.32) 'active visits' annually. An estimated 3.20 million (3.05, 3.35) of these also reported meeting recommended physical activity guidelines (i.e. ≥5×30min a week) fully, or in part, through such visits. Active visits by this group were associated with an estimated 109,164 (101,736, 116,592) Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) annually. Assuming the social value of a QALY to be £20,000, the annual value of these visits was approximately £2.18 billion (£2.03, £2.33). Results for walking were replicated using WHO's Health Economic Assessment Tool.

CONCLUSIONS

Natural environments provide the context for a large proportion of England's recreational physical activity and highlight the need to protect and manage such environments for health purposes.