Where do those data go? Reuse of screening results from clinical trials to estimate population prevalence of HBV infection in adults in Kilifi, Kenya

Chronic hepatitis B infection (CHB) is a significant problem worldwide with around 300 million people infected. Ambitious goals have been set towards its elimination as a public health threat by 2030. However, accurate seroprevalence estimates in many countries are lacking or fail to provide representative population estimates, particularly in the WHO African Region (AFRO). This means the full extent of HBV infection is not well described, leading to a lack of investment in diagnostics, treatment and disease prevention. Clinical trials in the WHO AFRO region have been increasing over time and many test for infectious diseases including hepatitis B virus (HBV) to determine baseline eligibility for participants, however these screening data are not reported. Here we review data from six clinical trials completed at the KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme between 2016 and 2023 that screened for HBV using hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) as part of the trial exclusion criteria. 1727 people had HBsAg results available, of which 60 tested positive. We generated a crude period HBV prevalence estimate of 3.5% (95% CI 2.6-4.5%), and after standardisation for sex and age to account for the population structure of the Kilifi Health Demographics Surveillance System (KHDSS), the prevalence estimate increased to 5.0% (95% CI 3.4-6.6%). The underrepresentation of women in these trials was striking with 1263/1641 (77%) of participants being male. Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) was significantly higher in the HBsAg positive group but was not outside the normal range. We argue that routine collation and publishing of data from clinical trials could increase precision and geographical representation of global HBV prevalence estimates, enabling evidence-based provision of clinical care pathways and public health interventions to support progress towards global elimination targets. We do acknowledge when using clinical trials data for seroprevalence estimates, that local population structure data is necessary to allow standardisation of results, and the point of care tests used here are limited in sensitivity and specificity.

Safety and immunogenicity of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine in adults in Kenya: a phase 1/2 single-blind, randomised controlled trial

Background

There are limited data on the immunogenicity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines in African populations. Here we report the immunogenicity and safety of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine from a phase 1/2 single-blind, randomised, controlled trial among adults in Kenya conducted as part of the early studies assessing vaccine performance in different geographical settings to inform Emergency Use Authorisation.

Methods

We recruited and randomly assigned (1:1) 400 healthy adults aged ≥18 years in Kenya to receive ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or control rabies vaccine, each as a two-dose schedule with a 3-month interval. The co-primary outcomes were safety, and immunogenicity assessed using total IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein 28 days after the second vaccination.

Results

Between 28 th October 2020 and 19 th August 2021, 400 participants were enrolled and assigned to receive ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (n=200) or rabies vaccine (n=200). Local and systemic adverse events were self-limiting and mild or moderate in nature. Three serious adverse events were reported but these were deemed unrelated to vaccination. The geometric mean anti-spike IgG titres 28 days after second dose vaccination were higher in the ChAdOx1 group (2773 ELISA units [EU], 95% CI 2447, 3142) than in the rabies vaccine group (61 EU, 95% CI 45, 81) and persisted over the 12 months follow-up. We did not identify any symptomatic infections or hospital admissions with respiratory illness and so vaccine efficacy against clinically apparent infection could not be measured. Vaccine efficacy against asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was 38.4% (95% CI -26.8%, 70.1%; p=0.188).

Conclusions

The safety, immunogenicity and efficacy against asymptomatic infection of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 among Kenyan adults was similar to that observed elsewhere in the world, but efficacy against symptomatic infection or severe disease could not be measured in this cohort.

Pan-African Clinical Trials Registration

PACTR202005681895696 (11/05/2020).

Examining the responsiveness of the National Health Insurance Fund to people living with hypertension and diabetes in Kenya: a qualitative study

OBJECTIVES

To assess the responsiveness of the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) Supa Cover benefit package to the needs of individuals with diabetes and hypertension in Kenya.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

We carried out a qualitative study and collected data using key informant interviews (n=39) and focus group discussions (n=4) in two purposively selected counties in Western Kenya. Study participants were drawn from NHIF officials, county government officials, health facility managers, healthcare workers and individuals with hypertension and diabetes who were enrolled in NHIF. We analysed data using a thematic approach.

RESULTS

Study participants reported that the NHIF Supa Cover benefit package expanded access to services for people living with hypertension and diabetes. However, the NHIF members and healthcare workers had inadequate awareness of the NHIF service entitlements. The NHIF benefit package inadequately covered the range of services needed by people living with hypertension and diabetes and the benefits package did not prioritise preventive and promotive services. Sometimes patients were discriminated against by healthcare providers who preferred cash-paying patients, and some NHIF-empanelled health facilities had inadequate structural inputs essential for quality of care. Study participants felt that the NHIF premium for the general scheme was unaffordable, and NHIF members faced additional out-of-pocket costs because of additional payments for services not available or covered.

CONCLUSION

Whereas NHIF has reduced financial barriers for hypertension and diabetes patients, to enhance its responsiveness to patient needs, NHIF should implement mechanisms to increase benefit package awareness among members and providers. In addition, preventive and promotive services should be included in NHIF's benefits package and mechanisms to monitor and hold contracted providers accountable should be strengthened.

Evaluating the effectiveness of the National Health Insurance Fund in providing financial protection to households with hypertension and diabetes patients in Kenya

BACKGROUND

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) can impose a substantial financial burden to households in the absence of an effective financial risk protection mechanism. The national health insurance fund (NHIF) has included NCD services in its national scheme. We evaluated the effectiveness of NHIF in providing financial risk protection to households with persons living with hypertension and/or diabetes in Kenya.

METHODS

We carried out a prospective cohort study, following 888 households with at least one individual living with hypertension and/or diabetes for 12 months. The exposure arm comprised households that are enrolled in the NHIF national scheme, while the control arm comprised households that were not enrolled in the NHIF. Study participants were drawn from two counties in Kenya. We used the incidence of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) as the outcome of interest. We used coarsened exact matching and a conditional logistic regression model to analyse the odds of CHE among households enrolled in the NHIF compared with unenrolled households. Socioeconomic inequality in CHE was examined using concentration curves and indices.

RESULTS

We found strong evidence that NHIF-enrolled households spent a lower share (12.4%) of their household budget on healthcare compared with unenrolled households (23.2%) (p = 0.004). While households that were enrolled in NHIF were less likely to incur CHE, we did not find strong evidence that they are better protected from CHE compared with households without NHIF (OR = 0.67; p = 0.47). The concentration index (CI) for CHE showed a pro-poor distribution (CI: -0.190, p < 0.001). Almost half (46.9%) of households reported active NHIF enrolment at baseline but this reduced to 10.9% after one year, indicating an NHIF attrition rate of 76.7%. The depth of NHIF cover (i.e., the share of out-of-pocket healthcare costs paid by NHIF) among households with active NHIF was 29.6%.

CONCLUSION

We did not find strong evidence that the NHIF national scheme is effective in providing financial risk protection to households with individuals living with hypertension and/diabetes in Kenya. This could partly be explained by the low depth of cover of the NHIF national scheme, and the high attrition rate. To enhance NHIF effectiveness, there is a need to revise the NHIF benefit package to include essential hypertension and/diabetes services, review existing provider payment mechanisms to explicitly reimburse these services, and extend the existing insurance subsidy programme to include individuals in the informal labour market.

Recurrent spontaneous Escherichia coli meningitis in an adult: a case report

Objectives

The aim of this study was to characterize an unusual case of spontaneous, community-acquired Escherichia coli meningitis in an adult presenting to a general hospital in Kenya, where initial clinical recovery was followed by reinfection with an MDR, hospital-acquired strain.

Patient and methods

An adult presented to a hospital in Kenya with meningitis symptoms. E. coli was cultured from CSF. Treatment with ceftriaxone was successful; however, the patient relapsed a few days later. E. coli was cultured from CSF and blood during the reinfection episode, though the patient died during admission. We sequenced the isolates using Illumina MiSeq and performed antimicrobial susceptibility testing, fitness and virulence assays on the bacteria.

Results

The E. coli isolates from the two episodes were found to be distinct: the initial strain was ST88, serotype O8 H17 while the subsequent episode was caused by an ST167, serotype O101 H5 MDR strain. The ST88 strain was susceptible to all drugs except ampicillin and amoxicillin/clavulanate while the ST167 strain was MDR, including to all β-lactam drugs due to the presence of the carbapenemase gene bla_NDM-5. The hospital-acquired ST167 strain was also resistant to newer drugs such as cefiderocol and eravacycline, which are currently not available locally, and had overall lower fitness and virulence in vitro compared with the initial infecting strain.

Conclusions

Though less fit and virulent in vitro, the MDR strain was fatal, suggesting that host factors, rather than bacterial virulence, may have been of greater importance in this patient’s outcome.

Scaling up the primary health integrated care project for chronic conditions in Kenya: study protocol for an implementation research project

INTRODUCTION

Amid the rising number of people with non-communicable diseases (NCDs), Kenya has invested in strengthening primary care and in efforts to expand existing service delivery platforms to integrate NCD care. One such approach is the AMPATH (Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare) model in western Kenya, which provides the platform for the Primary Health Integrated Care Project for Chronic Conditions (PIC4C), launched in 2018 to further strengthen primary care services for the prevention and control of hypertension, diabetes, breast and cervical cancer. This study seeks to understand how well PIC4C delivers on its intended aims and to inform and support scale up of the PIC4C model for integrated care for people with NCDs in Kenya.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The study is guided by a conceptual framework on implementing, sustaining and spreading innovation in health service delivery. We use a multimethod design combining qualitative and quantitative approaches, involving: (1) in-depth interviews with health workers and decision-makers to explore experiences of delivering PIC4C; (2) a cross-sectional survey of patients with diabetes or hypertension and in-depth interviews to understand how well PIC4C meets patients' needs; (3) a cohort study with an interrupted time series analysis to evaluate the degree to which PIC4C leads to health benefits such as improved management of hypertension or diabetes; and (4) a cohort study of households to examine the extent to which the national hospital insurance chronic care package provides financial risk protection to people with hypertension or diabetes within PIC4C.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has received approvals from Moi University Institutional Research and Ethics Committee (FAN:0003586) and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (17940). Workshops with key stakeholders at local, county, national and international levels will ensure early and wide dissemination of our findings to inform scale up of this model of care. We will also publish findings in peer-reviewed journals.

Temporal trends of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Kenya

Observed SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths are low in tropical Africa raising questions about the extent of transmission. We measured SARS-CoV-2 IgG by ELISA in 9,922 blood donors across Kenya and adjusted for sampling bias and test performance. By 1st September 2020, 577 COVID-19 deaths were observed nationwide and seroprevalence was 9.1% (95%CI 7.6-10.8%). Seroprevalence in Nairobi was 22.7% (18.0-27.7%). Although most people remained susceptible, SARS-CoV-2 had spread widely in Kenya with apparently low associated mortality.

Nocturnal dipping of heart rate and blood pressure in people with HIV in Tanzania

People with HIV (PWH) have a >2-fold greater risk for development of cardiovascular disease (CVD), which may be associated with abnormalities in 24-h ambulatory blood pressure measurement (ABPM) profile. We conducted a nested case-control study of ABPM in 137 PWH and HIV-uninfected controls with normal and high clinic blood pressure (BP) in Tanzania. Nocturnal non-dipping of heart rate (HR) was significantly more common among PWH than HIV-uninfected controls (p = .01). Nocturnal non-dipping of BP was significantly more common in PWH with normal clinic BP (p = .048). Clinical correlates of nocturnal non-dipping were similar in PWH and HIV-uninfected adults and included higher BMI, higher CD4⁺ cell count, and high C-reactive protein for HR and markers of renal disease for BP. In conclusion, nocturnal non-dipping of both BP and HR was more common in PWH but further research is needed to determine causes and consequences of this difference.

Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Kenyan blood donors

The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Africa is poorly described. The first case of SARS-CoV-2 in Kenya was reported on 12 March 2020, and an overwhelming number of cases and deaths were expected, but by 31 July 2020, there were only 20,636 cases and 341 deaths. However, the extent of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in the community remains unknown. We determined the prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G among blood donors in Kenya in April-June 2020. Crude seroprevalence was 5.6% (174 of 3098). Population-weighted, test-performance-adjusted national seroprevalence was 4.3% (95% confidence interval, 2.9 to 5.8%) and was highest in urban counties Mombasa (8.0%), Nairobi (7.3%), and Kisumu (5.5%). SARS-CoV-2 exposure is more extensive than indicated by case-based surveillance, and these results will help guide the pandemic response in Kenya and across Africa.

Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Kenyan blood donors

The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Africa is poorly described. The first case of SARS-CoV-2 in Kenya was reported on 12 March 2020, and an overwhelming number of cases and deaths were expected, but by 31 July 2020, there were only 20,636 cases and 341 deaths. However, the extent of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in the community remains unknown. We determined the prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G among blood donors in Kenya in April-June 2020. Crude seroprevalence was 5.6% (174 of 3098). Population-weighted, test-performance-adjusted national seroprevalence was 4.3% (95% confidence interval, 2.9 to 5.8%) and was highest in urban counties Mombasa (8.0%), Nairobi (7.3%), and Kisumu (5.5%). SARS-CoV-2 exposure is more extensive than indicated by case-based surveillance, and these results will help guide the pandemic response in Kenya and across Africa.

Factors influencing the implementation of cardiovascular risk scoring in primary care: a mixed-method systematic review

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) such as ischemic heart disease and stroke is the leading causes of death and disability globally with a growing burden in low and middle-income countries. A credible way of managing the incidence and prevalence of cardiovascular diseases is by reducing risk factors. This understanding has led to the development and recommendation for the clinical use of cardiovascular risk stratification tools. These tools enhance clinical decision-making. However, there is a lag in the implementation of these tools in most countries. This systematic review seeks to synthesise the current knowledge of the factors influencing the implementation of cardiovascular risk scoring in primary care settings.

METHODS

We searched bibliographic databases and grey literature for studies of any design relating to the topic. Titles, abstracts and full texts were independently assessed for eligibility by two reviewers. This was followed by quality assessment and data extraction. We analysed data using an integrated and best fit framework synthesis approach to identify these factors. Quantitative and qualitative forms of data were combined into a single mixed-methods synthesis. The Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research was used as the guiding tool and template for this analysis.

RESULTS

Twenty-five studies (cross-sectional n = 12, qualitative n = 9 and mixed-methods n = 4) were included in this review. Twenty (80%) of these were conducted in high-income countries. Only four studies (16%) included patients as participants. This review reports on a total of eleven cardiovascular risk stratification tools. The factors influencing the implementation of cardiovascular risk scoring are related to clinical setting and healthcare system (resources, priorities, practice culture and organisation), users (attributes and interactions between users) and the specific cardiovascular risk tool (characteristics, perceived role and effectiveness).

CONCLUSIONS

While these findings bolster the understanding of implementation complexity, there exists limited research in the context of low and middle-income countries. Notwithstanding the need to direct resources in bridging this gap, it is also crucial that these efforts are in concert with providing high-quality evidence on the clinical effectiveness of using cardiovascular risk scoring to improve cardiovascular disease outcomes of mortality and morbidity.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration number: CRD42018092679.

Optimización del desempeño del observador al medir la presión arterial en el consultorio: declaración de posición de la Comisión Lancet de Hipertensión

La hipertensión arterial es una causa modificable muy prevalente de enfermedades cardiovasculares, accidentes cerebrovasculares y muerte. Medir con exactitud la presión arterial es fundamental, dado que un error de medición de 5 mmHg puede ser motivo para clasificar incorrectamente como hipertensas a 84 millones de personas en todo el mundo. En la presente declaración de posición se resumen los procedimientos para optimizar el desempeño del observador al medir la presión arterial en el consultorio, con atención especial a los entornos de ingresos bajos o medianos, donde esta medición se ve complicada por limitaciones de recursos y tiempo, sobrecarga de trabajo y falta de suministro eléctrico. Es posible reducir al mínimo muchos errores de medición con una preparación adecuada de los pacientes y el uso de técnicas estandarizadas. Para simplificar la medición y prevenir errores del observador, deben usarse tensiómetros semiautomáticos o automáticos de manguito validados, en lugar del método por auscultación. Pueden ayudar también la distribución de tareas, la creación de un área específica de medición y el uso de aparatos semiautomáticos o de carga solar. Es fundamental garantizar la capacitación inicial y periódica de los integrantes del equipo de salud. Debe considerarse la implementación de programas de certificación de bajo costo y fácilmente accesibles con el objetivo de mejorar la medición de la presión arterial.

Patient costs of diabetes mellitus care in public health care facilities in Kenya

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the direct and indirect costs of diabetes mellitus care at five public health facilities in Kenya.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study in two counties where diabetes patients aged 18 years and above were interviewed. Data on care-seeking costs were obtained from 163 patients seeking diabetes care at five public facilities using the cost-of-illness approach. Medicines and user charges were classified as direct health care costs while expenses on transport, food, and accommodation were classified as direct non-health care costs. Productivity losses due to diabetes were classified as indirect costs. We computed annual direct and indirect costs borne by these patients.

RESULTS

More than half (57.7%) of sampled patients had hypertension comorbidity. Overall, the mean annual direct patient cost was KES 53 907 (95% CI, 43 625.4-64 188.6) (US$ 528.5 [95% CI, 427.7-629.3]). Medicines accounted for 52.4%, transport 22.6%, user charges 17.5%, and food 7.5% of total direct costs. Overall mean annual indirect cost was KES 23 174 (95% CI, 20 910-25 438.8) (US$ 227.2 [95% CI, 205-249.4]). Patients reporting hypertension comorbidity incurred higher costs compared with diabetes-only patients. The incidence of catastrophic costs was 63.1% (95% CI, 55.7-70.7) and increased to 75.4% (95% CI, 68.3-82.1) when transport costs were included.

CONCLUSION

There are substantial direct and indirect costs borne by diabetic patients in seeking care from public facilities in Kenya. High incidence of catastrophic costs suggests diabetes services are unaffordable to majority of diabetic patients and illustrate the urgent need to improve financial risk protection to ensure access to care.

Patient costs of hypertension care in public health care facilities in Kenya

Background

Hypertension in low‐ and middle‐income countries, including Kenya, is of economic importance due to its increasing prevalence and its potential to present an economic burden to households. In this study, we examined the patient costs associated with obtaining care for hypertension in public health care facilities in Kenya.

Methods

We conducted a cross‐sectional study among adult respondents above 18 years of age, with at least 6 months of treatment in two counties. A total of 212 patients seeking hypertension care at five public facilities were interviewed, and information on care seeking and the associated costs was obtained. We computed both annual direct and indirect costs borne by these patients.

Results

Overall, the mean annual direct cost to patients was US$ 304.8 (95% CI, 235.7‐374.0). Medicines (mean annual cost, US$ 168.9; 95% CI, 132.5‐205.4), transport (mean annual cost, US$ 126.7; 95% CI, 77.6‐175.9), and user charges (mean annual cost, US$ 57.7; 95% CI, 43.7‐71.6) were the highest direct cost categories. Overall mean annual indirect cost was US$ 171.7 (95% CI, 152.8‐190.5). The incidence of catastrophic health care costs was 43.3% (95% CI, 36.8‐50.2) and increased to 59.0% (95% CI, 52.2‐65.4) when transport costs were included.

Conclusions

Hypertensive patients incur substantial direct and indirect costs. High rates of catastrophic costs illustrate the urgency of improving financial risk protection for these patients and strengthening primary care to ensure affordability of hypertension care.

Effect of ready-to-use supplementary food on mortality in severely immunocompromised HIV-infected individuals in Africa initiating antiretroviral therapy (REALITY): an open-label, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

In sub-Saharan Africa, severely immunocompromised HIV-infected individuals have a high risk of mortality during the first few months after starting antiretroviral therapy (ART). We hypothesise that universally providing ready-to-use supplementary food (RUSF) would increase early weight gain, thereby reducing early mortality compared with current guidelines recommending ready-to-use therapeutic food (RUTF) for severely malnourished individuals only.

METHODS

We did a 2 × 2 × 2 factorial, open-label, parallel-group trial at inpatient and outpatient facilities in eight urban or periurban regional hospitals in Kenya, Malawi, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Eligible participants were ART-naive adults and children aged at least 5 years with confirmed HIV infection and a CD4 cell count of fewer than 100 cells per μL, who were initiating ART at the facilities. We randomly assigned participants (1:1) to initiate ART either with (RUSF) or without (no-RUSF) 12 weeks' of peanut-based RUSF containing 1000 kcal per day and micronutrients, given as two 92 g packets per day for adults and one packet (500 kcal per day) for children aged 5-12 years, regardless of nutritional status. In both groups, individuals received supplementation with RUTF only when severely malnourished (ie, body-mass index [BMI] <16-18 kg/m2 or BMI-for-age Z scores <-3 for children). We did the randomisation with computer-generated, sequentially numbered tables with different block sizes incorporated within an online database. Randomisation was stratified by centre, age, and two other factorial randomisations, to 12 week adjunctive raltegravir and enhanced anti-infection prophylaxis (reported elsewhere). Clinic visits were scheduled at weeks 2, 4, 8, 12, 18, 24, 36, and 48, and included nurse assessment of vital status and symptoms and dispensing of all medication including ART and RUSF. The primary outcome was mortality at week 24, analysed by intention to treat. Secondary outcomes included absolute changes in weight, BMI, and mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC). Safety was analysed in all randomly assigned participants. Follow-up was 48 weeks. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01825031) and the ISRCTN registry (43622374).

FINDINGS

Between June 18, 2013, and April 10, 2015, we randomly assigned 1805 participants to treatment: 897 to RUSF and 908 to no-RUSF. 56 (3%) were lost-to-follow-up. 96 (10·9%, 95% CI 9·0-13·1) participants allocated to RUSF and 92 (10·3%, 8·5-12·5) to no-RUSF died within 24 weeks (hazard ratio 1·05, 95% CI 0·79-1·40; log-rank p=0·75), with no evidence of interaction with the other randomisations (both p>0·7). Through 48 weeks, adults and adolescents aged 13 years and older in the RUSF group had significantly greater gains in weight, BMI, and MUAC than the no-RUSF group (p=0·004, 0·004, and 0·03, respectively). The most common type of serious adverse event was specific infections, occurring in 90 (10%) of 897 participants assigned RUSF and 87 (10%) of 908 assigned no-RUSF. By week 48, 205 participants had serious adverse events in both groups (p=0·81), and 181 had grade 4 adverse events in the RUSF group compared with 172 in the non-RUSF group (p=0·45).

INTERPRETATION

In severely immunocompromised HIV-infected individuals, providing RUSF universally at ART initiation, compared with providing RUTF to severely malnourished individuals only, improved short-term weight gain but not mortality. A change in policy to provide nutritional supplementation to all severely immunocompromised HIV-infected individuals starting ART is therefore not warranted at present.

FUNDING

Joint Global Health Trials Scheme (UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, and Wellcome Trust).

Burden, causes, and outcomes of people with epilepsy admitted to a rural hospital in Kenya

OBJECTIVE

People with epilepsy (PWE) develop complications and comorbidities often requiring admission to hospital, which adds to the burden on the health system, particularly in low-income countries. We determined the incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), risk factors, and causes of admissions in PWE. We also examined the predictors of prolonged hospital stay and death using data from linked clinical and demographic surveillance system.

METHODS

We studied children and adults admitted to a Kenyan rural hospital, between January 2003 and December 2011, with a diagnosis of epilepsy. Poisson regression was used to compute incidence and rate ratios, logistic regression to determine associated factors, and the DALY package of the R-statistical software to calculate years lived with disability (YLD) and years of life lost (YLL).

RESULTS

The overall incidence of admissions was 45.6/100,000 person-years of observation (PYO) (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 43.0-48.7) and decreased with age (p < 0.001). The overall DALYs were 3.1/1,000 (95% CI, 1.8-4.7) PYO and comprised 55% of YLD. Factors associated with hospitalization were use of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) (odds ratio [OR] 5.36, 95% CI 2.64-10.90), previous admission (OR 11.65, 95% CI 2.65-51.17), acute encephalopathy (OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.07-4.22), and adverse perinatal events (OR 2.87, 95% CI 1.06-7.74). Important causes of admission were epilepsy-related complications: convulsive status epilepticus (CSE) (38%), and postictal coma (12%). Age was independently associated with prolonged hospital stay (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.04) and mortality (OR, 1.07, 95% CI 1.04-1.10).

SIGNIFICANCE

Epilepsy is associated with significant number of admissions to hospital, considerable duration of admission, and mortality. Improved supply of AEDs in the community, early initiation of treatment, and adherence would reduce hospitalization of PWE and thus the burden of epilepsy on the health system.

Causes of death among persons of all ages within the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Kenya, determined from verbal autopsies interpreted using the InterVA-4 model

Background

The vast majority of deaths in the Kilifi study area are not recorded through official systems of vital registration. As a result, few data are available regarding causes of death in this population.

Objective

To describe the causes of death (CODs) among residents of all ages within the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) on the coast of Kenya.

Design

Verbal autopsies (VAs) were conducted using the 2007 World Health Organization (WHO) standard VA questionnaires, and VA data further transformed to align with the 2012 WHO VA instrument. CODs were then determined using the InterVA-4 computer-based probabilistic model.

Results

Five thousand one hundred and eighty seven deaths were recorded between January 2008 and December 2011. VA interviews were completed for 4,460 (86%) deaths. Neonatal pneumonia and birth asphyxia were the main CODs in neonates; pneumonia and malaria were the main CODs among infants and children aged 1–4, respectively, while HIV/AIDS was the main COD for adult women of reproductive age. Road traffic accidents were more commonly observed among men than women. Stroke and neoplasms were common CODs among the elderly over the age of 65.

Conclusions

We have established the main CODs among people of all ages within the area served by the KHDSS on the coast of Kenya using the 2007 WHO VA questionnaire coded using InterVA-4. We hope that our data will allow local health planners to estimate the burden of various diseases and to allocate their limited resources more appropriately.

Accuracy of clinical stroke scores for distinguishing stroke subtypes in resource poor settings: A systematic review of diagnostic test accuracy

Background:

Stroke is the second leading cause of death globally. Computerized tomography is used to distinguish between ischemic and hemorrhagic subtypes, but it is expensive and unavailable in low and middle income countries. Clinical stroke scores are proposed to differentiate between stroke subtypes but their reliability is unknown.

Materials and Methods:

We searched online databases for studies written in English and identified articles using predefined criteria. We considered studies in which the Siriraj, Guy's Hospital, Besson and Greek stroke scores were compared to computerized tomography as the reference standard. We calculated the pooled sensitivity and specificity of the clinical stroke scores using a bivariate mixed effects binomial regression model.

Results:

In meta-analysis, sensitivity and specificity for the Siriraj stroke score, were 0.69 (95% CI 0.62-0.75) and 0.83 (95% CI 0.75-0.88) for ischemic stroke and 0.65 (95% CI 0.56-0.73) and 0.88 (95% CI 0.83-0.91) for hemorrhagic stroke. For the Guy's hospital stroke score overall sensitivity and specificity were 0.70 (95% CI 0.53-0.83) and 0.79 (95% CI 0.68-0.87) for ischemic stroke and 0.54 (95% CI 0.42-0.66) and 0.89 (95% CI 0.83-0.94) for hemorrhagic stroke.

Conclusions:

Clinical stroke scores are not accurate enough for use in clinical or epidemiological settings. Computerized tomography is recommended for differentiating stroke subtypes. Larger studies using different patient populations are required for validation of clinical stroke scores.

Increased incidence of symptomatic peripheral neuropathy among adults receiving stavudine- versus zidovudine-based antiretroviral regimens in Kenya

The incidence of peripheral neuropathy (PN) among adults initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) containing stavudine (d4T) versus zidovudine (ZDV) is not well described. We compared 1-year incidence between d4T- and ZDV-based regimens in adults initiating ART in a programmatic setting in Kenya. Of 1,848 adults on ART, 1,579 (85 %) initiated d4T-based and 269 (15 %) initiated ZDV-based regimens. One-year incidence of symptomatic PN per 100 person-years was 21.9 (n=236) among d4T users and 6.9 (n=7) among ZDV users (P=0.0002). D4T was associated with 2.7 greater risk of PN than ZDV (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.7, P=0.009). In settings with continued d4T use, such as Africa, the effects of d4T on PN compared to ZDV should be considered when choosing ART regimens.

Validating physician-certified verbal autopsy and probabilistic modeling (InterVA) approaches to verbal autopsy interpretation using hospital causes of adult deaths

Background

The most common method for determining cause of death is certification by physicians based either on available medical records, or where such data are not available, through verbal autopsy (VA). The physician-certification approach is costly and inconvenient; however, recent work shows the potential of a computer-based probabilistic model (InterVA) to interpret verbal autopsy data in a more convenient, consistent, and rapid way. In this study we validate separately both physician-certified verbal autopsy (PCVA) and the InterVA probabilistic model against hospital cause of death (HCOD) in adults dying in a district hospital on the coast of Kenya.

Methods

Between March 2007 and June 2010, VA interviews were conducted for 145 adult deaths that occurred at Kilifi District Hospital. The VA data were reviewed by a physician and the cause of death established. A range of indicators (including age, gender, physical signs and symptoms, pregnancy status, medical history, and the circumstances of death) from the VA forms were included in the InterVA for interpretation. Cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMF), Cohen's kappa (κ) statistic, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive values were applied to compare agreement between PCVA, InterVA, and HCOD.

Results

HCOD, InterVA, and PCVA yielded the same top five underlying causes of adult deaths. The InterVA overestimated tuberculosis as a cause of death compared to the HCOD. On the other hand, PCVA overestimated diabetes. Overall, CSMF for the five major cause groups by the InterVA, PCVA, and HCOD were 70%, 65%, and 60%, respectively. PCVA versus HCOD yielded a higher kappa value (κ = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.48, 0.54) than the InterVA versus HCOD which yielded a kappa (κ) value of 0.32 (95% CI: 0.30, 0.38). Overall, (κ) agreement across the three methods was 0.41 (95% CI: 0.37, 0.48). The areas under the ROC curves were 0.82 for InterVA and 0.88 for PCVA. The observed sensitivities and specificities across the five major causes of death varied from 43% to 100% and 87% to 99%, respectively, for the InterVA/PCVA against the HCOD.

Conclusion

Both the InterVA and PCVA compared well with the HCOD at a population level and determined the top five underlying causes of death in the rural community of Kilifi. We hope that our study, albeit small, provides new and useful data that will stimulate further definitive work on methods of interpreting VA data.