Efficacy and safety of tirzepatide, GLP-1 receptor agonists, and other weight loss drugs in overweight and obesity: a network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This network meta-analysis evaluates the efficacy and safety of tirzepatide compared to glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA) and other weight loss drugs in the treatment of overweight and obesity.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane CENTRAL were searched for randomized controlled trials on tirzepatide, GLP-1 RA, and weight loss drugs approved by the US Food and Drug Administration. A network meta-analysis was performed, drawing direct and indirect comparisons between treatment groups. Network diagrams and surface under the cumulative ranking curve analysis were performed for primary (≥5%, ≥10%, ≥15%, absolute weight loss) and secondary outcomes and adverse effects.

RESULTS

Thirty-one randomized controlled trials, involving more than 35,000 patients, were included in this study. Tirzepatide 15 mg ranked in the top three across weight-related parameters, glycemic profile (glycated hemoglobin), lipid parameters (total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides), and blood pressure. Tirzepatide 15 mg had the highest efficacy compared with placebo for achieving ≥15% weight loss (risk ratio 10.24, 95% CI: 6.42-16.34). As compared to placebo, tirzepatide and GLP-1 RA across all doses had significant increases in gastrointestinal adverse effects.

CONCLUSIONS

The superiority of tirzepatide and GLP-1 RA in inducing weight loss and their ability to target multiple metabolic parameters render them promising candidates in the treatment of patients with overweight and obesity.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiometabolic outcomes in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease population

The metabolic syndrome, characterized by type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and obesity, collectively increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a prominent manifestation, affecting over a third of the global population with a concerning annual increase in prevalence. Nearly 70 % of overweight individuals have NAFLD, and NAFLD-related deaths are predicted to rise, especially among young adults. The association of T2DM and NAFLD has led to the proposal of "metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease" (MASLD) terminology, encompassing individuals with T2DM, overweight/obesity, hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia, or low HDL-cholesterol. Patients with MASLD will likely have double the risk of developing T2DM, and the combination of insulin resistance, overweight/obesity, and MASLD significantly elevates the risk of T2DM. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of mortality in the MASLD and T2DM population, with MASLD directly associated with coronary artery disease, compounded by coexisting insulin resistance and T2DM. Urgency lies in early detection of subclinical cardiovascular diseases among patients with T2DM and MASLD. Novel strategies targeting multiple pathways offer hope for effectively improving cardiometabolic health. Understanding and addressing the intertwined factors contributing to these disorders can pave the way towards better management and prevention of cardiometabolic complications.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Anthropometric and cardiometabolic effects of polyphenols in people with overweight and obesity: an umbrella review

CONTEXT

Polyphenols are plant-based compounds with potential anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, and anti-obesogenic properties. However, their effects on health outcomes remain unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effects of polyphenols on anthropometric and cardiometabolic markers.

DATA SOURCES

Six electronic databases-namely, EMBASE, CINAHL, PubMed, Scopus, The Cochrane Library (reviews only), and Web of Science-were searched for relevant systematic reviews with meta-analyses (SRMAs).

DATA EXTRACTION

Three reviewers performed the data extraction via a data-extraction Microsoft Excel spreadsheet.

DATA ANALYSIS

An umbrella review and meta-analysis of existing SRMAs was conducted. Eighteen SRMAs published from 2015 to 2023, representing 445 primary studies and 838 unique effect sizes, were identified. Meta-analyses were conducted using random-effects models with general inverse variance. Polyphenol-containing foods were found to significantly improve weight (-0.36 kg; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.62, 0.77 kg; P < 0.01, I2 = 64.9%), body mass index (-0.25 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.34, -0.17 kg/m2; P < 0.001, I2 = 82.4%), waist circumference (-0.74 cm; 95% CI: -1.34, -0.15 cm; P < 0.01, I2 = 99.3%), low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (-1.75 mg/dL; 95% CI: -2.56, -0.94; P < 0.001, I2 = 98.6%), total cholesterol (-1.23 mg/dL; 95% CI: -2.00, -0.46; P = 0.002, I2 = 94.6%), systolic blood pressure (-1.77 mmHg; 95% CI: -1.77, -0.93 mmHg; P < 0.001, I2 = 72.4%), diastolic blood pressure (-1.45 mmHg; 95% CI: -2.09, -0.80 mmHg; P < 0.001, I2 = 61.0%), fat percentage (-0.70%; 95% CI: -1.03, -0.36%; P < 0.001, I2 = 52.6%), fasting blood glucose (-0.18 mg/dL; 95% CI: -0.35, -0.01 mg/dL; P = 0.04, I2 = 62.0%), and C-reactive protein (CRP; including high-sensitivity-CRP [hs-CRP]) (-0.2972 mg/dL; 95% CI: -0.52, -0.08 mg/dL; P = 0.01, I2 = 87.9%). No significant changes were found for high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (-0.12 mg/dL; 95% CI: -1.44, 0.69; P = 0.67, I2 = 89.4%) and triglycerides (-1.29 mg/dL; 95% CI: -2.74, 0.16; P = 0.08, I2 = 85.4%). Between-study heterogeneity could be explained by polyphenol subclass differences.

CONCLUSION

The findings of this umbrella review support the beneficial effects of polyphenols on anthropometric and metabolic markers, but discretion is warranted to determine the clinical significance of the magnitude of the biomarker improvements.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews no. CRD42023420206.

Higher risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes in females with type 2 diabetes Mellitus: an Umbrella review of systematic reviews

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown that females with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) may have excess mortality risk compared to their male counterparts. An important next step to address the high global burden of T2DM and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is an umbrella review to summarize data on sex differences in cardiovascular outcomes for patients with T2DM and assess the strength of the evidence observed.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Medline and Embase were searched from inception till 7 August 2022 for systematic reviews and meta-analyses studying the effects of sex on cardiovascular outcomes in T2DM patients. Results from reviews were synthesized with a narrative synthesis, with a tabular presentation of findings and forest plots for reviews that performed a meta-analysis. 27 review articles evaluating sex differences in cardiovascular outcomes were included. Females with T2DM had a higher risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD; RRR: 1.52, 95%CI: 1.32-1.76, P < 0.001), acute coronary syndrome (ACS; RRR: 1.38, 95%CI: 1.25-1.52, P < 0.001), heart failure (RRR: 1.09, 95%CI: 1.05-1.13, P < 0.001) than males. Females had a higher risk of all-cause mortality (RRR: 1.13, 95%CI: 1.07-1.19, P < 0.001), cardiac mortality (RRR: 1.49, 95%CI: 1.11-2.00, P = 0.009) and CHD mortality (RRR: 1.44, 95%CI: 1.20-1.73, P < 0.001) as compared to males.

CONCLUSIONS

This umbrella review demonstrates that females with T2DM have a higher risk of cardiovascular outcomes than their male counterparts. Future research should address the basis of this heterogeneity and epidemiological factors for better quality of evidence, and identify actionable interventions that will narrow these sex disparities.

Trends and predictions of metabolic risk factors for acute myocardial infarction: findings from a multiethnic nationwide cohort

Background

Understanding the trajectories of metabolic risk factors for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is necessary for healthcare policymaking. We estimated future projections of the incidence of metabolic diseases in a multi-ethnic population with AMI.

Methods

The incidence and mortality contributed by metabolic risk factors in the population with AMI (diabetes mellitus [T2DM], hypertension, hyperlipidemia, overweight/obesity, active/previous smokers) were projected up to year 2050, using linear and Poisson regression models based on the Singapore Myocardial Infarction Registry from 2007 to 2018. Forecast analysis was stratified based on age, sex and ethnicity.

Findings

From 2025 to 2050, the incidence of AMI is predicted to rise by 194.4% from 482 to 1418 per 100,000 population. The largest percentage increase in metabolic risk factors within the population with AMI is projected to be overweight/obesity (880.0% increase), followed by hypertension (248.7% increase), T2DM (215.7% increase), hyperlipidemia (205.0% increase), and active/previous smoking (164.8% increase). The number of AMI-related deaths is expected to increase by 294.7% in individuals with overweight/obesity, while mortality is predicted to decrease by 11.7% in hyperlipidemia, 29.9% in hypertension, 32.7% in T2DM and 49.6% in active/previous smokers, from 2025 to 2050. Compared with Chinese individuals, Indian and Malay individuals bear a disproportionate burden of overweight/obesity incidence and AMI-related mortality.

Interpretation

The incidence of AMI is projected to continue rising in the coming decades. Overweight/obesity will emerge as fastest-growing metabolic risk factor and the leading risk factor for AMI-related mortality.

Funding

This research was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03) and National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MOH-001131). The SMIR is a national, ministry-funded registry run by the National Registry of Diseases Office and funded by the Ministry of Health, Singapore.

Epicardial Adipose Tissue Assessed by Computed Tomography and Echocardiography Are Associated With Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) has garnered attention as a prognostic and risk stratification factor for cardiovascular disease. This study, via meta-analyses, evaluates the associations between EAT and cardiovascular outcomes stratified across imaging modalities, ethnic groups, and study protocols.

METHODS

Medline and Embase databases were searched without date restriction on May 2022 for articles that examined EAT and cardiovascular outcomes. The inclusion criteria were (1) studies measuring EAT of adult patients at baseline and (2) reporting follow-up data on study outcomes of interest. The primary study outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events. Secondary study outcomes included cardiac death, myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, and atrial fibrillation.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine articles published between 2012 and 2022, comprising 19 709 patients, were included in our analysis. Increased EAT thickness and volume were associated with higher risks of cardiac death (odds ratio, 2.53 [95% CI, 1.17-5.44]; P=0.020; n=4), myocardial infarction (odds ratio, 2.63 [95% CI, 1.39-4.96]; P=0.003; n=5), coronary revascularization (odds ratio, 2.99 [95% CI, 1.64-5.44]; P<0.001; n=5), and atrial fibrillation (adjusted odds ratio, 4.04 [95% CI, 3.06-5.32]; P<0.001; n=3). For 1 unit increment in the continuous measure of EAT, computed tomography volumetric quantification (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.74 [95% CI, 1.42-2.13]; P<0.001) and echocardiographic thickness quantification (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.09-1.32]; P<0.001) conferred an increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events.

CONCLUSIONS

The utility of EAT as an imaging biomarker for predicting and prognosticating cardiovascular disease is promising, with increased EAT thickness and volume being identified as independent predictors of major adverse cardiovascular events.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero; Unique identifier: CRD42022338075.

Socioeconomic deprivation and prognostic outcomes in acute coronary syndrome: A meta-analysis using multidimensional socioeconomic status indices

BACKGROUND

Low socioeconomic status (SES) is an important prognosticator amongst patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). This paper analysed the effects of SES on ACS outcomes.

METHODS

Medline and Embase were searched for articles reporting outcomes of ACS patients stratified by SES using a multidimensional index, comprising at least 2 of the following components: Income, Education and Employment. A comparative meta-analysis was conducted using random-effects models to estimate the risk ratio of all-cause mortality in low SES vs high SES populations, stratified according to geographical region, study year, follow-up duration and SES index.

RESULTS

A total of 29 studies comprising of 301,340 individuals were included, of whom 43.7% were classified as low SES. While patients of both SES groups had similar cardiovascular risk profiles, ACS patients of low SES had significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR:1.19, 95%CI: 1.10-1.1.29, p < 0.001) compared to patients of high SES, with higher 1-year mortality (RR:1.08, 95%CI:1.03-1.13, p = 0.0057) but not 30-day mortality (RR:1.07, 95%CI:0.98-1.16, p = 0.1003). Despite having similar rates of ST-elevation myocardial infarction and non-ST-elevation ACS, individuals with low SES had lower rates of coronary revascularisation (RR:0.95, 95%CI:0.91-0.99, p = 0.0115) and had higher cerebrovascular accident risk (RR:1.25, 95%CI:1.01-1.55, p = 0.0469). Excess mortality risk was independent of region (p = 0.2636), study year (p = 0.7271) and duration of follow-up (p = 0.0604) but was dependent on the SES index used (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Low SES is associated with increased mortality post-ACS, with suboptimal coronary revascularisation rates compared to those of high SES. Concerted efforts are needed to address the global ACS-related socioeconomic inequity.

REGISTRATION AND PROTOCOL

The current study was registered with PROSPERO, ID: CRD42022334482.

Mortality, Cardiovascular, and Medication Outcomes in Patients With Myocardial Infarction and Underweight in a Meta-Analysis of 6.3 Million Patients

Although most of the current evidence on myocardial infarction focuses on obesity, there is growing evidence that patients who are underweight have unfavorable prognosis. This study aimed to explore the prevalence, clinical characteristics, and prognosis of this population at risk. Embase and Medline were searched for studies reporting outcomes in populations who were underweight with myocardial infarction. Underweight and normal weight were defined according to the World Health Organization criteria. A single-arm meta-analysis of proportions was used to estimate the prevalence of underweight in patients with myocardial infarction, whereas a meta-analysis of proportions was used to estimate the odds ratio of all-cause mortality, medications prescribed, and cardiovascular outcomes. Twenty-one studies involving 6,368,225 patients were included, of whom 47,866 were underweight. The prevalence of underweight in patients with myocardial infarction was 2.96% (95% confidence interval 1.96% to 4.47%). Despite having fewer classical cardiovascular risk factors, patients who were underweight had 66% greater hazard for mortality (hazard ratio 1.66, 95% confidence interval 1.44 to 1.92, p <0.0001). The mortality of patients who were underweight increased from 14.1% at 30 days to 52.6% at 5 years. Nevertheless, they were less likely to receive guideline-directed medical therapy. Relative to subjects with normal weight, Asian populations who were underweight had greater mortality risks than those of their Caucasian counterparts (p = 0.0062). In conclusion, in patients with myocardial infarction, those who were underweight tend to have poorer prognostic outcomes. A lower body mass index is an independent predictor of mortality, which calls for global efforts in addressing this modifiable risk factor in clinical practice guidelines.

Hepatic steatosis and advanced hepatic fibrosis are independent predictors of long-term mortality in acute myocardial infarction

AIM

To examine the prevalence and prognosis of hepatic steatosis and fibrosis in post-acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients.

METHODS

Patients presenting with AMI to a tertiary hospital were examined from 2014 to 2021. Hepatic steatosis and advanced hepatic fibrosis were determined using the Hepatic Steatosis Index and fibrosis-4 index, respectively. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Cox regression models identified determinants of mortality after adjustments and Kaplan-Meier curves were constructed for all-cause mortality, stratified by hepatic steatosis and advanced fibrosis.

RESULTS

Of 5765 patients included, 24.8% had hepatic steatosis, of whom 41.7% were diagnosed with advanced fibrosis. The median follow-up duration was 2.7 years. Patients with hepatic steatosis tended to be younger, female, with elevated body mass index and an increased metabolic burden of diabetes, hypertension and hyperlipidaemia. Patients with hepatic steatosis (24.6% vs. 20.9% mortality, P < .001) and advanced fibrosis (45.6% vs. 32.9% mortality, P < .001) had higher all-cause mortality rates compared with their respective counterparts. Hepatic steatosis (adjusted hazard ratio 1.364, 95% CI 1.145-1.625, P = .001) was associated with all-cause mortality after adjustment for confounders. Survival curves showed excess mortality in patients with hepatic steatosis compared with those without (P = .002).

CONCLUSIONS

Hepatic steatosis and advanced fibrosis have a substantial prevalence among patients with AMI. Both are associated with mortality, with an incrementally higher risk when advanced fibrosis ensues. Hepatic steatosis and fibrosis could help risk stratification of AMI patients beyond conventional risk factors.

The global syndemic of metabolic diseases in the young adult population: A consortium of trends and projections from the Global Burden of Disease 2000-2019

BACKGROUND

A significant proportion of premature deaths globally are related to metabolic diseases in young adults. We examined the global trends and mortality of metabolic diseases in individuals aged below 40 years using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

From 2000 to 2019, global estimates of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were described for metabolic diseases (type 2 diabetes mellitus [T2DM], hyperlipidemia, hypertension, obesity, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease [NAFLD]). Subgroup analyses were performed based on sex, geographical regions and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Age-standardised death and DALYs were presented per 100,000 population with 95 % uncertainty intervals (UI). Projections of mortality and DALYs were estimated using regression models based on the GBD 2019 data and combining them with Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projection counts for years up to 2050.

RESULTS

In 2019, the highest age-standardised death rates were observed in hypertension (133·88 [121·25-155·73]), followed by obesity (62·59 [39·92-89·13]), hyperlipidemia (56·51 [41·83-73·62]), T2DM (18·49 [17·18-19·66]) and NAFLD (2·09 [1·61-2·60]). Similarly, obesity (1932·54 [1276·61-2639·74]) had the highest age-standardised DALYs, followed by hypertension (2885·57 [2580·75-3201·05]), hyperlipidemia (1207·15 [975·07-1461·11]), T2DM (801·55 [670·58-954·43]) and NAFLD (53·33 [40·73-68·29]). Mortality rates decreased over time in hyperlipidemia (-0·6 %), hypertension (-0·47 %), NAFLD (-0·31 %) and T2DM (-0·20 %), but not in obesity (1·07 % increase). The highest metabolic-related mortality was observed in Eastern Mediterranean and low SDI countries. By 2050, obesity is projected to contribute to the largest number of deaths (102·8 % increase from 2019), followed by hypertension (61·4 % increase), hyperlipidemia (60·8 % increase), T2DM (158·6 % increase) and NAFLD (158·4 % increase), with males continuing to bear the greatest burden across all metabolic diseases.

CONCLUSION

The growing burden of metabolic diseases, increasing obesity-related mortality trends, and the sex-regional-socioeconomic disparities evident in young adulthood, underlie the concerning growing global burden of metabolic diseases now and in future.

Long-Term Prognosis of Patients With Coexisting Obesity and Malnutrition After Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The double burden of malnutrition, described as the coexistence of malnutrition and obesity, is a growing global health issue. This study examines the combined effects of obesity and malnutrition on patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

METHODS

Patients presenting with AMI to a percutaneous coronary intervention-capable hospital in Singapore between January 2014 and March 2021 were retrospectively studied. Patients were stratified into the following: (1) nourished nonobese, (2) malnourished nonobese, (3) nourished obese, and (4) malnourished obese. Obesity and malnutrition were defined according to the World Health Organization definition (body mass index ≥27.5 kg/m²) and Controlling Nutritional Status score, respectively. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The association between combined obesity and nutritional status with mortality was examined using Cox regression, adjusted for age, sex, AMI type, previous AMI, ejection fraction, and chronic kidney disease. Kaplan-Meier curves for all-cause mortality were constructed.

RESULTS

The study included 1829 AMI patients, of which 75.7% were male and mean age was 66 years. Over 75% of patients were malnourished. Majority were malnourished nonobese (57.7%), followed by malnourished obese (18.8%), nourished nonobese (16.9%), and nourished obese (6.6%). Malnourished nonobese had highest all-cause mortality (38.6%), followed by the malnourished obese (35.8%), nourished nonobese (21.4%), and nourished obese (9.9%, P<0.001). Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated least favorable survival in malnourished nonobese group, followed by malnourished obese, nourished nonobese, and nourished obese. With nourished nonobese group as the reference, malnourished nonobese had higher all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.46 [95% CI, 1.10-1.96], P=0.010), but only a nonsignificant increase in mortality was observed in the malnourished obese (hazard ratio, 1.31 [95% CI, 0.94-1.83], P=0.112).

CONCLUSIONS

Among AMI patients, malnutrition is prevalent even in the obese. Compared to nourished patients, malnourished AMI patients have a more unfavorable prognosis especially in those with severe malnutrition regardless of obesity status, but long-term survival is the most favorable among nourished obese patients.

Trends and predictions of malnutrition and obesity in 204 countries and territories: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Malnutrition and obesity are interdependent pathologies along the same spectrum. We examined global trends and projections of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths from malnutrition and obesity until 2030.

METHODS

Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study involving 204 countries and territories, trends in DALYs and deaths were described for obesity and malnutrition from 2000 to 2019, stratified by geographical regions (as defined by WHO) and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Malnutrition was defined according to the 10th revision of International Classification of Diseases codes for nutritional deficiencies, stratified by malnutrition type. Obesity was measured via body mass index (BMI) using metrics related to national and subnational estimates, defined as BMI ≥25 kg/m². Countries were stratified into low, low-middle, middle, high-middle, and high SDI bands. Regression models were constructed to predict DALYs and mortality up to 2030. Association between age-standardised prevalence of the diseases and mortality was also assessed.

FINDINGS

In 2019, age-standardised malnutrition-related DALYs was 680 (95% UI: 507-895) per 100,000 population. DALY rates decreased from 2000 to 2019 (-2.86% annually), projected to fall 8.4% from 2020 to 2030. Africa and low SDI countries observed highest malnutrition-related DALYs. Age-standardised obesity-related DALY estimates were 1933 (95% UI: 1277-2640). Obesity-related DALYs rose 0.48% annually from 2000 to 2019, predicted to increase by 39.8% from 2020 to 2030. Highest obesity-related DALYs were in Eastern Mediterranean and middle SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

The ever-increasing obesity burden, on the backdrop of curbing the malnutrition burden, is predicted to rise further.

FUNDING

None.

A two-decade population-based study on the effect of hypertension in the general population with obesity in the United States

OBJECTIVE

With rising prevalence of hypertension and obesity, the effect of hypertension in obesity remains an important global issue. The prognosis of the US general population with obesity based on hypertension control was examined.

METHODS

This study examined participants from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between 1999 and 2018. Individuals with obesity were stratified into no hypertension, controlled hypertension, and uncontrolled hypertension. The study outcome was all-cause mortality. Cox regression of all-cause mortality was adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, diabetes, and previous myocardial infarction.

RESULTS

Of 16,386 individuals with obesity, 53.1% had no hypertension, 24.7% had controlled hypertension, and 22.2% had uncontrolled hypertension. All-cause mortality was significantly higher in uncontrolled hypertension (17.1%), followed by controlled hypertension (14.8%) and no hypertension (4.0%). Uncontrolled hypertension had the highest mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.34, 95% CI: 1.13-1.59, p = 0.001), followed by controlled hypertension (HR 1.21, 95% CI: 1.10-1.34, p < 0.001), compared with no hypertension after adjustment. The excess mortality trend was more pronounced in females, those with diabetes, and those older than age 65 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The incremental mortality risk in controlled and uncontrolled hypertension, compared with the normotensive counterparts, irrespective of sex, age, and diabetes status, urges health care providers to optimize hypertension control and advocate weight loss to achieve better outcomes in obesity.

The global syndemic of metabolic diseases in the young adult population: a consortium from the Global Burden of Disease 2000-2019

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background

A large proportion of premature deaths are related to metabolic diseases in the young adult population. We examined the global trends and mortality of metabolic diseases using estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 in individuals aged below 40 years.

Methods

From 2000-2019, global estimates of prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were described for metabolic diseases (type 2 diabetes mellitus [T2DM], hypertension, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease [NAFLD]). Global estimates were limited to mortality and DALYs for risk factors (hyperlipidemia and obesity). Subgroup analyses were performed based on sex, geographical regions and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Age-standardized prevalence, death, and DALYs were presented per 100,000 population with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI).

Findings

The prevalence for all metabolic diseases increased from 2000-2019, with the most pronounced increase in males and high SDI countries. In 2019, the highest age-standardised death rates were observed in hypertension (133·88 [121·25-155·73]; males, 160·13 [138·91-180·79]; females, 119·66 [102·33-136·86]), followed by obesity (62·59 [39·92-89·13]; males, 66·55 [39·76-97·21]; females, 58·14 [38·53-81·39]), hyperlipidemia (56·51 [41·83-73·62]; males, 67·33 [50·78-86·43]; females, 46·50 [32·70-62·38]), T2DM (18·49 [17·18-19·66]; males, 19·94 [18·50-21·32]; females, 17·30 [15·62-18·70]) and NAFLD (2·09 [1·61-2·60]; males, 2·38 [1·82-3·02]; females, 1·82 [1·41-2·27]). Similarly, obesity (1932·54 [1276·61-2639·74]) had the highest age-standardised DALYs, followed by hypertension (2885·57 [2580·75-3201·05]), hyperlipidemia (1207·15 [975·07-1461·11]), T2DM (801·55 [670·58-954·43]) and NAFLD (53·33 [40·73-68·29]). Mortality rates decreased over time in hyperlipidemia (-60%), hypertension (-47%), NAFLD (-31%) and T2DM (-20%), but not in obesity (107% increase). The highest metabolic-related mortality was observed in the Eastern Mediterranean and low SDI countries.

Conclusion

The growing prevalence of metabolic diseases, increasing obesity-related mortality trends, and the sex-regional-socioeconomic disparities evident in young adulthood, present the concerning global burden of metabolic diseases now and in the years ahead.

Higher risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes in women with type 2 diabetes mellitus: an umbrella review of systematic reviews

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background

Previous studies have shown that females with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) may have an excess mortality risk compared to males. Furthermore, other studies have reported sex differences in managing cardiovascular risk factors, such as controlling hypertension and hypercholesterolemia.

Purpose

With the growing evidence from systematic reviews examining the sex differences in cardiovascular outcomes for patients with T2DM, an umbrella review is an essential next step to synthesising and assessing the strength of the available evidence.

Methods

Medline and Embase were searched from inception till 7th August 2022 for systematic reviews and meta-analyses studying the effects of sex on cardiovascular outcomes in T2DM patients. Results from reviews were synthesised with a narrative synthesis, with a tabular presentation of findings and forest plots for reviews that performed a meta-analysis. AMSTAR 2 tool was used to assess the methodological quality of included reviews, while the GRADE assessment was used to assess the quality of evidence for outcomes.

Results

A total of 28 studies evaluating sex differences in cardiovascular outcomes were included. Females with T2DM had a higher risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD; RRR 1.52, 95%CI 1.32–1.76, p&lt;0.001), acute coronary syndrome (ACS; RRR 1.38, 95%CI 1.25–1.52, p&lt;0.001), and heart failure (RRR 1.09, 95%CI 1.05–1.13, p&lt;0.001) than males. In terms of mortality outcomes, females had a higher risk of all-cause mortality (RRR 1.13, 95%CI 1.07–1.19, p&lt;0.001), cardiac mortality (RRR 1.49, 95%CI 1.11–2.00, p=0.009) and CHD mortality (RRR 1.44, 95%CI 1.20–1.73, p&lt;0.001) as compared to males. In patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention, females reported higher odds of MACE (OR 1.49, 95%CI 1.07–2.07, p=0.020) and all-cause mortality (OR 1.71, 95%CI 1.46–2.00, p&lt;0.001) compared to males. Females in Asia (RRR 1.12, 95%CI 1.03–1.21, p=0.006) and North America (RRR 1.10, 95%CI 1.08–1.12, p&lt;0.001) were at increased risk of all-cause mortality while females in Western countries had an increased risk for cardiac death (RRR 1.84, 95%CI 1.45–2.32, p&lt;0.001) compared to males. Six reviews were rated as high in quality; eight reviews were rated as moderate, and fourteen reviews were rated as low in quality. Regarding the quality of outcomes, all outcomes in non-interventional studies had a moderate quality of evidence, while all outcomes in interventional studies achieved a high quality of evidence.

Conclusions

This umbrella review evaluated the quality of meta-analyses and demonstrated that females with T2DM have a higher risk of cardiovascular outcomes than their male counterparts. Future studies examining the sex differences in outcomes should attempt to address the heterogeneity and epidemiological factors for a better quality of evidence. Policymakers should consider sex-specific differences in implementing effective tailored strategies to tackle T2DM.

Effects of epicardial adipose tissue volume and thickness assessed by computed tomography and echocardiography on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background

Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) has garnered attention as a potential imaging biomarker for the risk stratification of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). However, the prognostic utility of EAT due to inter-ethnic differences and imaging modality (computed tomography (CT) or transthoracic echocardiography (TTE)) remains undetermined.

Purpose

To evaluate the effect of EAT volume and thickness on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular outcomes. We also aim to compare the prognostic utility between CT volumetric and TTE thickness quantification; and provide consolidated data on the heterogeneity in EAT measurements across different ethnic groups.

Methods

Medline and Embase databases were searched from inception till 16 May 2022 for studies that measured EAT volume or thickness of adult patients at baseline and reported follow-up data on outcomes of interest. Outcomes included MACE, all-cause mortality, cardiac death, myocardial infarction (MI), coronary revascularisation, atrial fibrillation (AF), and stroke. Statistical analyses were conducted on Review Manager 5.4.1 to obtain unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and odds ratios (OR) with the results presented on forest plots.

Results

Twenty-nine studies comprising 19709 patients were included in our analysis. Increased EAT thickness and volume were associated with higher risks of MACE (adjusted HR [aHR] 1.46, 95%CI 1.25–1.71, p&lt;0.001), cardiac death (OR 2.53, 95%CI 1.17–5.44, p=0.020), MI (OR 2.63, 95%CI 1.39–4.96, p=0.003), coronary revascularisation (OR 2.99, 95%CI 1.64–5.44, p&lt;0.001), AF (aOR 4.04, 95%CI 3.06–5.32, p&lt;0.001), and stroke (HR 1.02, 95%CI 1.01–1.03, p&lt;0.001). CT-volumetric quantification of EAT conferred a larger MACE risk (aHR 1.79, 95%CI 1.47–2.17, p&lt;0.001) compared to TTE thickness quantification (aHR 1.20, 95%CI 1.09–1.32, p&lt;0.001). Studies originating from North America (HR 1.91, 95%CI 1.26–2.89, p=0.002) and Asia (HR 1.60, 95%CI 1.09–2.36, p=0.020) demonstrated a significantly higher risk of MACE with increased EAT thickness and volume. However, this significance was not seen in European studies (HR 1.48, 95%CI 0.99–2.20, p=0.060). Subgroup differences were also noted across the studies’ countries of origin when analysing the association of EAT and MI (p=0.020). European studies reported a higher magnitude of MI risk associated with higher EAT thickness and volume (OR 5.28, 95%CI 2.34–11.95, p&lt;0.001) as compared to Asian studies (OR 1.75, 95%CI 1.05–2.92, p=0.030). No differences were noted across other outcomes in the subgroup comparisons by geographical region and between CT and TTE quantification of EAT.

Conclusion

The utility of EAT as an imaging biomarker for predicting and prognosticating CVD is promising. Future efforts to harmonise the EAT parameter thresholds, based on the type of imaging modality and the target population’s ethnic characteristics, will be the next important step before including EAT in CVD prediction models.

Patients, carers and healthcare providers' perspectives on a patient-owned surveillance system for diabetic foot ulcer care: A qualitative study

Objective

Digital health has recently gained a foothold in monitoring and improving diabetes care. We aim to explore the views of patients, carers and healthcare providers (HCPs) regarding the use of a novel patient-owned wound surveillance application as part of outpatient management of patients with diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs).

Methods

Semi-structured online interviews were conducted with patients, carers and HCPs in wound care for DFUs. The participants were recruited from a primary care polyclinic network and two tertiary hospitals in Singapore, within the same healthcare cluster. Purposive maximum variation sampling was used to select participants with differing attributes to ensure heterogeneity. Common themes relating to the wound imaging app were captured.

Results

A total of 20 patients, 5 carers and 20 HCPs participated in the qualitative study. None of the participants have used a wound imaging app before. Regarding a patient-owned wound surveillance app, all were open and receptive to the system and workflow for use in DFU care. Four major themes emerged from patients and carers: (1) technology, (2) application features and usability, (3) feasibility of using the wound imaging application and (4) logistics of care. Four major themes were identified from HCPs: (1) attitudes towards wound imaging app, (2) preferences regarding functionality, (3) perceived challenges for patients/carers and (4) perceived barriers for HCPs.

Conclusion

Our study highlighted several barriers and facilitators from patients, carers and HCPs regarding the use of a patient-owned wound surveillance app. These findings demonstrate the potential of digital health and areas to improve and tailor a DFU wound app suitable for implementation in the local population.

General Public's knowledge, awareness, and perception of Cardiometabolic diseases: data from a Singapore study population

Background

Health literacy and illness perception play crucial roles in tackling the cardiometabolic disease epidemic. We aim to compare the attitudes, knowledge, self-perceived risks and actions taken, between individuals with and without metabolic risk factors (MFs).

Methods

From 5 June to 5 October 2022, participants of the general public were invited to complete a self-administered questionnaire. MF status was defined as the presence of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus and/or current/previous smoking. Participants were assessed based on four categories (knowledge-based, attitude-based, perceived risk, and action-based) of questions pertaining to four cardiometabolic diseases - diabetes mellitus, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

Results

A total of 345 participants were enrolled, of whom 34.5% had at least one MF. Compared to those without MFs, participants with MFs had lower knowledge scores, but higher perceived risk scores across all cardiometabolic diseases. The largest knowledge gap pertained to hypertension-related questions. After adjustment, linear regression demonstrated that the presence of MFs (β:2.752, 95%CI: 0.772-4.733, p = 0.007) and higher knowledge scores (β:0.418, 95%CI: 0.236-0.600, p < 0.001) were associated with higher perceived risk. Despite increased perceived risk in those with MFs, this translated to only few increased self-reported preventive actions, when compared to those without MFs, namely the reduction in red meat/processed food consumption (p = 0.045) and increase in fruits/vegetables consumption (p = 0.009).

Conclusion

This study identified a vulnerable subpopulation living with MFs, with high perceived risks, and discordant levels of knowledge and preventive actions taken. Nationwide efforts should be channeled into addressing the knowledge-to-action gap.

Cost-effectiveness of selective bone densitometry using the osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians in multi-ethnic Asian population

Early detection and treatment of osteoporosis can help to prevent debilitating fractures in the elderly. The osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians can be used as a screening tool to stratify patients for bone densitometry. It is most cost-effective for post-menopausal women aged 70 and males aged 75.

PURPOSE

To determine the cost-effectiveness of selective bone densitometry (SBD) using the Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool for Asians (OSTA) as a risk-stratifying tool for the three predominant races (Chinese, Malay and Indian) in Singapore.

METHODS

Decision analytical models were developed using a Markov model. Three scenarios were compared: no bone densitometry, SBD using the OSTA as a pre-screening tool and universal bone densitometry. Those diagnosed with osteoporosis were treated with five years of alendronate therapy. Data sources were from Singapore epidemiological studies, healthcare cost figures and published literature. Measurements include life years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER).

RESULTS

Compared to no bone densitometry, SBD using the OSTA would cost between $40,679 and $73,909 per QALY gained for men aged 75-80 and $22,386 to $58,185 per QALY gained for post-menopausal women aged 70-80. Universal bone densitometry would cost $157,955 to $177,127 per QALY gained for men aged 75-80 and $40,179 to $66,112 per QALY gained for post-menopausal women aged 70 to 80 compared to SBD.

CONCLUSION

In general, osteoporosis screening was the most cost-effective for Malays and the least cost-effective for Indians. However, a general guideline should still be applied to the Singaporean population, as further explained later. Overall, the most cost-effective strategy for males would be using OSTA as a risk-stratifying tool at age 75. For post-menopausal women, SBD should be used for women aged 70, while universal bone densitometry should be used for women aged 75-80.

Bayesian Meta-analysis of Direct Oral Anticoagulation Versus Vitamin K Antagonists With or Without Concomitant Antiplatelet After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation in Patients With Anticoagulation Indication

Patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) commonly have co-morbidities requiring anticoagulation. However, the optimal post-procedural anticoagulation regimen is not well-established. This meta-analysis investigates safety and efficacy outcomes of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) and Vitamin K Antagonist (VKA), with or without concomitant antiplatelet therapy. We searched EMBASE and MEDLINE for appropriate studies. Subgroup analyses were performed for anticoagulant monotherapy and combined therapy with antiplatelet agents. Eleven studies (6359 patients) were included. Overall, there were no differences between DOACs and VKA for all-cause mortality (Odds Ratio [OR]: .69; Credible Interval [CrI]: .40–1.06), cardiovascular-related mortality (OR: .76; Crl: .13–3.47), bleeding (OR: .95; CrI: .75–1.17), stroke (OR: 1.04; CrI: .65–1.63), myocardial infarction (OR: 1.51; CrI: .55–3.84), and valve thrombosis (OR: .29; CrI: .01–3.54). For DOACs vs VKA monotherapy subgroup, there were no differences in outcomes. For the combined therapy subgroup, there was decreased odds of all-cause mortality in the DOACs group compared with the VKA group (OR: .13; CrI: .02–.65), but no differences for bleeding and stroke. DOACs and VKA have similar safety and efficacy profiles for post-TAVI patients with anticoagulation indication. However, if concomitant antiplatelet therapy is required, DOACs were more favorable than VKA for all-cause mortality.

Prognostically distinct phenotypes of metabolic health beyond obesity in aortic stenosis

Background

Whilst current evidence are in favour of metabolic health and non-obesity in the reduction of incident cardiovascular disease, little is known regarding the prognosis across the metabolic phenotypes once cardiovascular disease occurs. This study examined the prognosis of patients with significant aortic stenosis (AS) based on the presence of metabolic health and obesity.

Methods

This retrospective cohort on consecutive patients presenting with moderate-to-severe AS to a tertiary hospital between 2010 and 2015. Patients were allocated into 4 groups based on obesity and metabolic health: metabolically healthy obese (MHO), metabolically healthy non-obese (MHNO), metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO) and metabolically unhealthy non-obese (MUNO). Metabolic health was defined in accordance to Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Cox regression examined independent associations between mortality and metabolic phenotypes, adjusting for aortic valve area, ejection fraction, age, sex, chronic kidney disease and AVR as a time-dependent covariate.

Results

Of 727 patients, the majority (51.6%) were MUNO, followed by MUO (32.7%), MHNO (11.4%), and MHO (4.3%). MHNO had the highest mortality (43.0%), followed by the MUNO (37.5%), MUO (30.0%) and MHO (6.9%) groups (p=0.001). Compared to MHNO, MHO (HR 0.159, 95% CI 0.038–0.668, p=0.012) and MUO (HR 0.614, 95% CI 0.403–0.937, p=0.024) were independently associated with lower all-cause mortality rates, after adjusting for confounders. In obese patients, metabolic health had favourable survival compared to metabolically unhealthy (p=0.015), but this protective impact of metabolic health was not observed in overweight or normal weight individuals. Obesity had favourable survival compared to overweight and normal weight, in both metabolically health (p=0.002) and unhealthy (p=0.007) patients,

Conclusion

MHO patients with AS have the most favourable prognosis whilst the seemingly healthy MHNO group had the worst survival. There should be a paradigm shift towards prioritising metabolic health rather than weight reduction in patients with significant AS.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Meta-analysis of the Placebo and Nocebo Effects Associated with Placebo Treatment in Randomized Trials of Lipid Lowering Therapy

BACKGROUND

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) in which the control groups received placebo without background LLT offer unique insights into the placebo and nocebo effects of lipid-lowering RCTs.

METHODS

Embase and Medline were searched for hyperlipidemia RCTs with placebo-controlled arms. Placebo arms with background LLT were excluded. A single arm meta-analysis of proportions was used to estimate major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and adverse events (AE). A meta-analysis of means was used to estimate the pooled mean differences of total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), high-density lipoproteins (HDL) and triglycerides.

RESULTS

A total of 40 RCTs and 37 668 placebo-treated participants were included. The pooled mean changes for TC, LDL, HDL, and triglycerides were -0.019 mmol/L, -0.028 mmol/L, 0.013 mmol/L and 0.062 mmol/L respectively among placebo-treated participants, indicating a modest placebo effect. The pooled average nocebo effect among placebo-treated participants was 42.62% for all AEs and 3.38% for musculoskeletal-related AEs, 11.36% for gastrointestinal-related AEs and 6.62% for headaches. Placebo-treated participants in secondary prevention RCTs had a far higher incidence of these nocebo effects than primary prevention RCTs: any AEs (OR 6.76, 95%CI: 5.56-8.24, P < 0.001), and gastrointestinal-related AE (OR 1.23, 95%CI: 1.00-1.51, P = 0.049). No differences in nocebo effects were found between the placebo arms of statin and non-statin trials.

CONCLUSION

Our meta-analysis of placebo-treated participants in RCTs with no background LLT indicate a modest placebo effect but prominent nocebo effect of musculoskeletal, headache and gastrointestinal symptoms that was greatest among secondary prevention RCTs. These findings may inform the design of future LLT RCTs.

The genetic interactions between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and cardiovascular diseases

The ongoing debate on whether non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an active contributor or an innocent bystander in the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has sparked interests in understanding the common mediators between the two biologically distinct entities. This comprehensive review identifies and curates genetic studies of NAFLD overlapping with CVD, and describes the colinear as well as opposing correlations between genetic associations for the two diseases. Here, CVD described in relation to NAFLD are coronary artery disease, cardiomyopathy and atrial fibrillation. Unique findings of this review included certain NAFLD susceptibility genes that possessed cardioprotective properties. Moreover, the complex interactions of genetic and environmental risk factors shed light on the disparity in genetic influence on NAFLD and its incident CVD. This serves to unravel NAFLD-mediated pathways in order to reduce CVD events, and helps identify targeted treatment strategies, develop polygenic risk scores to improve risk prediction and personalise disease prevention.

Practice-based differences in paediatric discoid lupus erythematosus

BACKGROUND

Children with discoid lupus erythematosus (DLE) are at risk for disfigurement and progression to systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Consensus is lacking regarding optimal care for children with DLE.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to compare practice patterns among paediatric dermatologists/rheumatologists treating paediatric DLE.

METHODS

An online survey was sent to 292 paediatric rheumatologists in the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance and 200 paediatric dermatologists in the Pediatric Dermatology Research Alliance. Consensus was defined as ≥ 70% agreement.

RESULTS

Survey response rates were 38% (76 of 200) for dermatology and 21% (60 of 292) for rheumatology. Both specialties agreed that screening labs should include complete blood counts with differential, urinalysis, complement levels, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, antinuclear antibody and other autoantibodies, hepatic function and renal function/electrolytes. Both specialties agreed that arthritis or nephritis should prompt intensified evaluation for SLE. No other patient features achieved consensus as disease-modifying risk factors. Hydroxychloroquine was agreed upon as first-line systemic therapy, but consensus was lacking for second- or third-line treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

We found few areas of consensus and significant practice differences between paediatric dermatologists and rheumatologists treating DLE. Knowledge gaps include risk factors for SLE, optimal screening and treatment of refractory skin disease.

3D imaging of sex-sorted bovine spermatozoon locomotion, head spin and flagellum beating

With the advent of sperm sex sorting methods and computer-aided sperm analysis platforms, comparative 2D motility studies showed that there is no significant difference in the swimming speeds of X-sorted and Y-sorted sperm cells, clarifying earlier misconceptions. However, other differences in their swimming dynamics might have been undetectable as conventional optical microscopes are limited in revealing the complete 3D motion of free-swimming sperm cells, due to poor depth resolution and the trade-off between field-of-view and spatial resolution. Using a dual-view on-chip holographic microscope, we acquired the full 3D locomotion of 235X-sorted and 289 Y-sorted bovine sperms, precisely revealing their 3D translational head motion and the angular velocity of their head spin as well as the 3D flagellar motion. Our results confirmed that various motility parameters remain similar between X- and Y-sorted sperm populations; however, we found out that there is a statistically significant difference in Y-sorted bovine sperms' preference for helix-shaped 3D swimming trajectories, also exhibiting an increased linearity compared to X-sorted sperms. Further research on e.g., the differences in the kinematic response of X-sorted and Y-sorted sperm cells to the surrounding chemicals and ions might shed more light on the origins of these results.

Low-molecular-weight heparin biosimilars: potential implications for clinical practice. Australian Low-Molecular-Weight Heparin Biosimilar Working Group (ALBW)

A working group of clinicians and scientists was formed to review the clinical considerations for use of low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) biosimilars. LMWH are biological molecules of significant complexity; the full complexity of chemical structure is still to be elucidated. LMWH biosimilars are products that are biologically similar to their reference product and rely on clinical data from a reference product to establish safety and efficacy. The complex nature of LMWH molecules means that it is uncertain whether a LMWH biosimilar is chemically identical to its reference product; this introduces the possibility of differences in activity and immunogenicity. The challenge for regulators and clinicians is to evaluate the level of evidence required to demonstrate that a LMWH is sufficiently similar to the reference product. The consensus opinion of the working group is that prior to clinical use a LMWH biosimilar should have proven efficacy and safety, similar to the reference product with prospective studies, which should be confirmed with a proactive post-marketing pharmacovigilance programme.