Predicting CO2 production of lactating dairy cows from animal, dietary, and production traits using an international dataset

Automated measurements of the ratio of concentrations of methane and carbon dioxide, [CH4]:[CO2], in breath from individual animals (the so-called "Sniffer-technique") and estimated CO2 production can be used to estimate CH4 production, provided that CO2 production can be reliably calculated. This would allow CH4 production from individual cows to be estimated in large cohorts of cows, whereby ranking of cows according to their CH4 production might become possible and their values could be used for breeding of low CH4 emitting animals. Estimates of CO2 production are typically based on predictions of heat production, which can be calculated from body weight (BW), energy-corrected milk yield, and days of pregnancy. The objectives of the present study were to develop predictions of CO2 production directly from milk production, dietary, and animal variables, and furthermore develop different models to be used for different scenarios, depending on available data. An international data set with 2,244 records from individual lactating cows including CO2 production and associated traits, as dry matter intake (DMI), diet composition, BW, milk production and composition, days in milk and days pregnant, was compiled to constitute the training data set. Research location and experiment nested within research location were included as random intercepts. The method of CO2 production measurement (respiration chamber (RC) or GreenFeed (GF)) was confounded with research location, and therefore excluded from the model. In total, 3 models were developed based on the current training data set: Model 1 ("Best Model"), where all significant traits were included, Model 2 ("On-Farm Model"), where DMI was excluded, and Model 3 ("Reduced On-Farm Model"), where both DMI and BW were excluded. Evaluation on test data sets either with RC data (n = 103), GF data without additives (n = 478) or GF data only including observations where nitrate, 3-nitrooxypropanol (3-NOP), or a combination of nitrate and 3-NOP were fed to the cows (GF+: n = 295), showed good precision of the 3 models, illustrated by low slope bias both in absolute values (-0.22 to 0.097) and in percentage (0.049 to 4.89) of mean square error (MSE). However, the mean bias (MB) indicated systematic over-prediction and under-prediction of CO2 production when the models were evaluated on the GF and the RC test data set, respectively. To address this bias, the 3 models were evaluated on a modified test data set, where the CO2 production (g/d) was adjusted by subtracting (where measurements were obtained by RC) or adding absolute MB (where measurements were obtained by GF) from evaluation of the specific model on RC, GF, and GF+ test data sets. By this modification, the absolute values of MB and MB as percentage of MSE became negligible. In conclusion, the 3 models were precise in predicting CO2 production from lactating dairy cows.

Oral Cavity Cancers: Ethnic Differences in Radiotherapy Outcomes in a Majority South Asian Leicester Community

AIMS

Squamous cell carcinoma oral cavity cancers (SCCOCCs) have a higher reported incidence in South Asian countries. We sought to compare presenting stage and outcome by ethnicity in patients with SCCOCC treated with radical radiotherapy in a single centre in the UK.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All patients with SCCOCC treated with radical radiotherapy at an oncology department in Leicester (UK) between 2011 and 2017 were identified. Baseline demographic, clinical data and 2-year treatment outcomes were reported.

RESULTS

Of the 109 patients included, 40 were South Asian and 59 were non-South Asian. South Asians had significantly poorer 2-year disease-free survival compared with non-South Asians (54.6% versus 73%, P = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Our analysis suggests that South Asians with SCCOCC have poorer outcomes despite a younger age and similar disease characteristics. Environmental, social factors and differing biology of disease may be responsible and further research is required to inform targeted interventions.

SAPPHIRE: phase III study of sitravatinib plus nivolumab versus docetaxel in advanced nonsquamous non-small-cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND

Checkpoint inhibitor (CPI) therapy revolutionized treatment for advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC); however, most patients progress due to primary or acquired resistance. Sitravatinib is a receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor that can shift the immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment toward an immunostimulatory state. Combining sitravatinib with nivolumab (sitra + nivo) may potentially overcome initial CPI resistance.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In the phase III SAPPHIRE study, patients with advanced non-oncogenic driven, nonsquamous NSCLC who initially benefited from (≥4 months on CPI without progression) and subsequently experienced disease progression on or after CPI combined with or following platinum-based chemotherapy were randomized 1 : 1 to sitra (100 mg once daily administered orally) + nivo (240 mg every 2 weeks or 480 mg every 4 weeks administered intravenously) or docetaxel (75 mg/m2 every 3 weeks administered intravenously). The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS). The secondary endpoints included progression-free survival (PFS), objective response rate (ORR), clinical benefit rate (CBR), duration of response (DOR; all assessed by blinded independent central review), and safety.

RESULTS

A total of 577 patients included randomized: sitra + nivo, n = 284; docetaxel, n = 293 (median follow-up, 17.1 months). Sitra + nivo did not significantly improve OS versus docetaxel [median, 12.2 versus 10.6 months; hazard ratio (HR) 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-1.05; P = 0.144]. The median PFS was 4.4 versus 5.4 months, respectively (HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.89-1.32; P = 0.452). The ORR was 15.6% for sitra + nivo and 17.2% for docetaxel (P = 0.597); CBR was 75.5% and 64.5%, respectively (P = 0.004); median DOR was 7.4 versus 7.1 months, respectively (P = 0.924). Grade ≥3 treatment-related adverse events were observed in 53.0% versus 66.7% of patients receiving sitra + nivo versus docetaxel, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Although median OS was numerically longer with sitra + nivo, the primary endpoint was not met in patients with previously treated advanced nonsquamous NSCLC. The safety profiles demonstrated were consistent with previous reports.

Snacking practices from infancy to adolescence: parental perspectives from longitudinal lived experience research in England

Consumption of snacks and ultra-processed foods (UPF) high in fat, salt and sugar (HFSS) is associated with rising rates of obesity and growing socioeconomic disparities in nutrition. While infancy, childhood and adolescence are critical periods for development of dietary preferences, there remains a dearth of research exploring factors that underpin snacking behaviour over this time. This review aims to address this gap by drawing from qualitative lived experience research, with 122 families of different socioeconomic position (SEP), to explore how the (i) home food environment, (ii) food environment and (iii) social value and meanings of food shape parental provision of snacks. This review shows that snacking holds important meanings in everyday family life, with infants integrated into existing snacking practices from an early age. Price promotions, low-cost and long shelf-lives all make UPF and HFSS snacks an appealing option for many low-SEP parents; while children's requests and preferences for HFSS snacks present a challenge across SEP. However, higher-SEP parents can ensure fresh fruits are always available as an alternative snack, while fruit is described as a financially risky expenditure for low-SEP families. The present findings also indicate that retailers and producers are increasingly promoting 'healthier' snacks through product packaging and marketing, such as 'meets one of your five a day', despite these products displaying similar nutritional profiles to traditional UPF and HFSS snacks. We outline a series of policy recommendations, including extending Healthy Start Vouchers and the Fruit and Vegetable Scheme in schools and action to address misleading product marketing and packaging.

The knowledge exchange and dissemination plan of the We Can Quit2 community-based stop-smoking trial

Background

We Can Quit2 was a community-based randomised controlled trial which determined the feasibility and acceptability of We Can Quit (WCQ), a peer delivered stop-smoking programme comprising group support and free Nicotine Replacement Therapy (NRT) tailored to women living in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas in Ireland. Reengagement with key stakeholders took place as part of the trial Knowledge Exchange and Dissemination plan, to discuss strategies to optimise community engagement, recruitment and retention in a future definitive trial (DT), and the policy priorities arising from the trial.

Methods

Community stakeholders involved in trial recruitment and planning, Irish Cancer Society and Health Service Executive representatives were invited to an online interactive workshop in November 2020. Key trial findings were presented. Workshop discussion (field notes) and responses to a post-event anonymous questionnaire informed a list of challenges and suggestions for a future DT and policy development from a community perspective.

Results

Forty-one stakeholders attended the workshop, six completed the questionnaire. Dedicated additional time for community engagement and use of social prescribing as a recruitment tool were recommended. Greater adaptation of trial data and assistance to complete forms were suggested to address low literacy, which was a barrier to recruitment and retention. An intervention boost after WCQ delivery and encouragement of women to join other healthy community programmes to maintain their group, were recommended to facilitate retention and enhance sustainability. Policy priorities were to remove cost and administrative barriers to access NRT and ongoing provision of cessation services tailored to disadvantaged groups.

Conclusions

Important strategies to optimise design of a DT of WCQ effectiveness were recommended. Lessons learned may be relevant to other community-based health interventions in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas.

Key messages

The workshop provided a suitable forum for engagement of community and statutory stakeholders. Knowledge exchange activities facilitated an enhanced research design from a community perspective.

Learning in lockdown: Using the COVID-19 crisis to teach children about food and climate change

Food systems are significant sources of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE). Since emission intensity varies greatly between different foods, changing food choices towards those with lower GHGE could make an important contribution to mitigating climate change. Public engagement events offer an opportunity to communicate these multifaceted issues and raise awareness about the climate change impact of food choices. An interdisciplinary team of researchers was preparing food and climate change educational activities for summer 2020. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown disrupted these plans. In this paper, we report on shifting these events online over the month of June 2020. We discuss what we did and the reception to our online programme. We then reflect on and highlight issues that arose. These relate to: (1) the power dynamics of children, diet and climate change; (2) mental health, diet and COVID-19; (3) engaging the wider science, agriculture and food communities; (4) the benefits of being unfunded and the homemade nature of this programme; (5) the food system, STEAM (science, technology, engineering, arts and mathematics) and diversity; and (6) how our work fits into our ongoing journey of food and climate change education.

The impact of ultra-processed food on carbon, water and ecological footprints of food in Brazil

Background

Ultra-processed foods (UPF) have been associated with major diet-related public health issues that share underlying drivers with climate change. Both challenges require major changes to the food system and so the potential benefits to health and the environment present a double motivation for transformation. Our aim is to assess the impacts of UPF on total greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), water and ecological footprints in Brazil food purchases.

Methods

We have used data from 4 Brazilian Household Budget Surveys (1987, 1996, 2003, 2009). Each food item was classified into NOVA food groups (unprocessed/minimally processed, culinary ingredients, processed and ultra-processed). The information was linked to nutrition and footprint data. Purchases were converted into grams per capita per day to estimate total energy (kcal), percentage of energy from UPF, as well as total GHGE, water and ecological footprints. We performed linear regression to calculate year-adjusted means of footprints per 1000 Kcal by year-specific quintiles of UPF participation in the total energy. The data were analysed in R v.3.6.1 and STATA SE 14.1.

Results

The mean UPF participation in total energy varied from 13% (SD 2.4) in the 1st UPF quintile to 29% (SD 5.1) in the 5th quintile. The footprints increased linearly across quintiles: the mean g CO2eq varied from 1312 in the 1st to 1721 in the 5th UPF quintile (p-trend<0.001); the mean litres of water varied from 1420 in the 1st to 1830 in the 5th quintile (p-trend<0.001); the mean m2 varied from 9.4 in the 1st to 12.3 in the 5th quintile (p < 0.001).

Conclusions

The environmental impacts were higher for Brazilian diets with a larger fraction of energy from UPF. Specifically, low UPF diets seem to have lower GHGE, water and ecological footprints. Our findings offer new motivators for dietary change to simultaneously healthier and more sustainable eating patterns and will be of relevance to consumers and policymakers.

Key messages

Diets high in UPF cause more climate impact than diets with lower levels of UPF. Healthy and sustainable dietary patterns should be low in ultra-processed foods.

Remineralization and fluoride uptake of white spot lesions under dental varnishes

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to evaluate white spot lesion (WSL) remineralization and fluoride uptake by the application of fluoride varnishes directly onto artificial WSLs in vitro.

METHODS

MI varnish containing casein phosphopeptide-amorphous calcium phosphate (CPP-ACP) and 2.26% fluoride and Duraphat varnish containing 2.26% fluoride (no added calcium) were compared with a placebo varnish (no added calcium or fluoride). Two WSLs were prepared in enamel slabs and varnish applied to cover one of the two lesions. Each slab was immersed in artificial saliva for 14 days at 37°C. Mineral content was determined using transverse microradiography and fluoride uptake using electron probe microanalysis. The data were statistically analysed using a linear mixed model.

RESULTS

Both MI and Duraphat varnishes significantly remineralized the covered and uncovered WSLs when compared with the placebo varnish (P < 0.001). The WSLs covered with varnish showed greater remineralization than those uncovered. MI varnish produced the highest level of remineralization and significantly greater fluoride uptake (0.44 ± 0.08 wt%) compared with Duraphat (0.24 ± 0.03 wt%) and the placebo varnish (0.06 ± 0.05 wt%).

CONCLUSION

Varnish containing fluoride and CPP-ACP was superior to varnish containing fluoride alone in promoting WSL remineralization and fluoride uptake.

0543 Implementing Insomnia Care Paths for Older Adults and People with Dementia

Introduction

Despite the high prevalence of insomnia in older adults and those with dementia, screening and treatment remain inconsistent and suboptimal. Implementing a care path in a health system, though, is difficult. To determine what issues are relevant for implementation, a consensus meeting was convened, which included discussion, voting on components, and further consensus-building.

Methods

All N=20 participants, representing a wide range of stakeholders including research, industry, sleep, primary care, implementation science, and others, voted whether they agreed or disagreed with 36 different statements regarding what issues are important for implementing geriatric insomnia care paths. These represented a range of items addressing strategies for identifying and incentivizing stakeholders, identifying patients in most need and who would receive benefit, addressing comorbidities and multiple specialties, understanding how specific organizations make decisions about and changes to care, size and scope of the care path, determining the process for implementation, how it will improve outcomes, addressing specific needs of primary care, and addressing costs, reimbursements, and liabilities. Items were scored as 0=strongly agree, 1=agree, 2=disagree, and 3=strongly disagree. Mean scores were evaluated and responses were dichotomized to agree/disagree).

Results

Despite the diversity among attendees, median rate of agreement for was 95% (IQR=90-95%). All items were endorsed by &gt;=80% of respondents. Mean score was 0.48 (SD=1.85). 95%CIs were computed for each proportion and compared to the mean. The only item that significantly differed from the mean score indicated that understanding benefits of a care path to the general community is less important of an issue than others (M=0.85).

Conclusion

Implementing an insomnia care path for older adults in an institution will likely require addressing a wide range of issues, including questions about stakeholders, the health system/context, patients, and practical considerations.

Support

Merck Research Labs provided support

1185 Developing A Care Pathway For Insomnia In Older Adults And Adults With Dementia: Results Of A Consensus Meeting

Introduction

Insomnia among older adults and dementia patients carries a high public health burden. Yet, treatment is inconsistent or absent. Standardized, programmatic carepaths can be implemented in clinics/systems/communities to address this after tailoring to local environments. To determine what elements should be included, a consensus meeting was convened, which included discussion, voting on components, and further consensus-building among diverse stakeholders.

Methods

Participants represented a wide range of stakeholders and specialties, including academic research, clinical care, industry, government, payors, sleep medicine, primary care, geriatrics, psychiatry, neurology, nursing, pharmacy, quality, and implementation science. 27 statements regarding key components of carepaths for insomnia in elderly and dementia populations were presented and discussed. These represented items addressing identification of patients, screening and assessment, deciding treatment modality and delivery, providing behavioral treatment, providing pharmacotherapy, addressing combined therapy, addressing comorbidities, and incorporating outcome evaluation. All N=20 participants voted individually whether they agreed or disagreed with each statement. Items were scored as 0=strongly agree, 1=agree, 2=disagree, and 3=strongly disagree. Mean scores were evaluated and responses were dichotomized to agree/disagree.

Results

Despite diversity among attendees, median rate of agreement was 95% (IQR=85-95%). Mean score was 0.69 (SD=0.31). 95%CIs were computed for each proportion and compared to the mean. The following elements were significantly different from the mean (p&lt;0.05): medication decision trees (M=0.25), accounting for comorbidities (M=0.26), include outcome evaluation (M=0.30), utilization of EMR (M=0.40), incorporate caregiver (M=0.42), and differ across parts of the system (M=1.79).

Conclusion

Insomnia carepaths for older adults should address identification, screening and assessment, treatment decisions, treatment type and delivery, and evaluation. Organizations should consider these elements when designing carepaths for insomnia among older adults and dementia patients. Consensus-building should begin during the process of prioritizing care path components.

Support

Merck Research Labs provided support

The effect of orthopaedic surgeons' and interventional radiologists' availability on the priority treatment sequence for hemodynamically unstable pelvic fractures: a survey of US Level I trauma centers

BACKGROUND

Most guidelines recommend both pelvic packing (PP) and angioembolization for hemodynamically unstable pelvic fractures, however their sequence varies. Some argue to use PP first because orthopaedic surgeons are more available than interventional radiologists; however, there is no data confirming this.

METHODS

This cross-sectional survey of 158 trauma medical directors at US Level I trauma centers collected the availability of orthopaedic surgeons and interventional radiologists, the number of orthopaedic trauma surgeons trained to manage pelvic fractures, and priority treatment sequence for hemodynamically unstable pelvic fractures. The study objective was to compare the availability of orthopaedic surgeons to interventional radiologists and describe how the availability of orthopaedic surgeons and interventional radiologists affects the treatment sequence for hemodynamically unstable pelvic fractures. Fisher's exact, chi-squared, and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used, alpha = 0.05.

RESULTS

The response rate was 25% (40/158). Orthopaedic surgeons (86%) were on-site more often than interventional radiologists (54%), p = 0.003. Orthopaedic surgeons were faster to arrive 39% of the time, and interventional radiologists were faster to arrive 6% of the time. There was a higher proportion of participants who prioritized PP before angioembolization at centers with above the average number (> 3) of orthopaedic trauma surgeons trained to manage pelvic fractures, as among centers with equal to or below average, p = 0.02. Arrival times for orthopaedic surgeons did not significantly predict prioritization of angioembolization or PP.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide evidence that orthopaedic surgeons typically are more available than interventional radiologists but contrary to anecdotal evidence most participants used angioembolization first. Familiarity with the availability of orthopaedic surgeons and interventional radiologists may contribute to individual trauma center's treatment sequence.

A-31 Trails-X Trail-Level Performance Using the Profile Variability Index

Objective

The Trails-X is a new type of trail-making test that emphasizes executive function and does not require either literacy or numeracy. The purpose of this study was to examine performance variability across trails.

Method

Participants were the Trails-X standardization sample and individuals with traumatic brain injury (TBI), learning disabilities (LD), intellectual disabilities (ID), attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and dementia. Trail-level performance was assessed via the mean Matrix, Connected Circles, and Time to Discontinue scores across trails. The Profile Variability Index (PVI) was calculated (Plake, Reynolds, & Gutkin, 1981) and clinical groups and standardization samples were compared via a one-way ANOVA.

Results

Across all trails, the mean Matrix score was 6 (possible range = 1-12) for the standardization sample and as low as 3 for the dementia and ID samples. The mean Connected Circles score was 16 (possible range = 0-22) and as low as 12 for the dementia sample. The mean Time to Discontinue score was 39 seconds (possible range = 1-75) and as high as 55 for the dementia sample. There was a statistically significant difference on the PVI score (F(5,845) = 6.921, p = .000). The dementia (M = 4.77) and ID (M = 5.11) samples had significantly lower (p < .05) PVI scores than the other samples, which were not significantly different from each other.

Conclusions

The dementia and ID samples were characterized by consistently low performance while the other samples were characterized by moderate amounts of variability, indicating that some variability across trails should be expected within less impaired individuals.

Physician attitudes about non-medical switching to biosimilars: results from an online physician survey in the United States

OBJECTIVE

This study was designed to understand the level of familiarity of US rheumatologists, gastroenterologists and dermatologists with biosimilar therapies, their experience with non-medical switching (switching medications for reasons unrelated to patient health) of patients between biologics and their attitudes towards switching from a biologic to a biosimilar.

METHODS

A total of 297 US physicians who currently prescribe biologics for their patients completed a 15-minute online survey. Rheumatologists, dermatologists and gastroenterologists were included.

RESULTS

The majority of physicians (84%) did not want stable patients undergoing a non-medical switch to a biosimilar. While 60% of physicians believed non-medical switching to biosimilars may have a positive impact on healthcare system costs, multiple negative impacts were also expected. A majority of physicians anticipated a negative impact on patient mental health (59%), treatment efficacy (57%), patient safety (53%) and physician office management (60%).

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of physicians had concerns regarding non-medical switching to biosimilars and the impact such switching would have on patient care and physician practice.

Patient attitudes about non-medical switching to biosimilars: results from an online patient survey in the United States

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate patient attitudes regarding non-medical switching (NMS) to biosimilars among patients with autoimmune disease currently receiving a biologic.

METHODS

An online survey was conducted among patients meeting the following criteria: ≥18 years of age; residing in the US; diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, psoriasis or psoriatic arthritis; currently taking a biologic; and consenting to participate. Patients answered questions about their attitudes and experiences related to NMS. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize responses.

RESULTS

A total of 1696 patients completed the 20-min survey. Eighty-five per cent of patients were concerned that biosimilars wouldn't treat their disease as well; 85% didn't want to switch to a biosimilar if their current biologic was helping their disease; and 83% were concerned that switching may cause more side-effects. Twenty per cent of patients had previously received notification about a potential NMS to another biologic (that was not a biosimilar) from their insurance company. Of these, 79% took at least one action to avoid the NMS and 45% ultimately switched. Of these patients (n = 150), 67% indicated that their previous biologic worked well for them and 70% didn't want to switch to another biologic. Most patients who switched (67%) did so to avoid paying a higher cost. More than half (56%) went without therapy for administrative reasons during the period of transition from the old biologic to the other treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients reported multiple concerns about NMS that might impact treatment outcomes, and many of the patients who non-medically switched in this survey missed treatments. Future studies should be conducted on patient expectations and experiences with NMS to understand the impact on healthcare delivery, treatment persistency, and patient outcomes. The patient perspective and experience should be considered by decision-makers when developing coverage policies for biosimilar medications and associated communication strategies.

Compact radio emission indicates a structured jet was produced by a binary neutron star merger

The binary neutron star merger event GW170817 was detected through both electromagnetic radiation and gravitational waves. Its afterglow emission may have been produced by either a narrow relativistic jet or an isotropic outflow. High-spatial-resolution measurements of the source size and displacement can discriminate between these scenarios. We present very-long-baseline interferometry observations, performed 207.4 days after the merger by using a global network of 32 radio telescopes. The apparent source size is constrained to be smaller than 2.5 milli-arc seconds at the 90% confidence level. This excludes the isotropic outflow scenario, which would have produced a larger apparent size, indicating that GW170817 produced a structured relativistic jet. Our rate calculations show that at least 10% of neutron star mergers produce such a jet.

Safe supplies: few infections in UK blood and tissue donors

AIMS/OBJECTIVES

Here, we describe the annual review of the UK blood services' infection surveillance schemes for 2017 (www.gov.uk/government/publications/safe-supplies-annual-review).

BACKGROUND

The joint NHS Blood and Transplant/Public Health England Epidemiology Unit was set up in 1995 to ensure that blood and tissue safety is maintained, inform donor selection and testing policy and add to public health knowledge.

METHODS

Several surveillance schemes for blood, tissues and bacterial screening collect the numbers of donations tested, reactive and confirmed positive in order to monitor trends in infection rates in donors and calculate residual risk of infection. Investigations of potential transfusion transmissions in recipients are also monitored.

RESULTS

In the UK in 2017, the risk of testing not detecting a potentially infectious hepatitis B virus or hepatitis C virus or HIV donation was estimated as less than one in two million donations. One hepatitis A virus and one hepatitis E virus transmission incidents were proven to be transfusion-transmitted by unscreened donations.

CONCLUSIONS

The Safe Supplies annual review provides a clear picture of the very low risk associated with blood and tissues in the UK nowadays. In November 2017, the blood services for England, Wales and Scotland implemented recommendations to reduce the deferrals for higher risk sexual behaviour from 12 to 3 months. The surveillance schemes are adapted to remain fit for purpose as testing and donor selection change.

Mixed-methods assessment of surgical capacity in two regions in Ethiopia

Background

Surgery is among the most neglected parts of healthcare systems in low- and middle-income countries. Ethiopia has launched a national strategic plan to address challenges in the surgical system. This study aimed to assess surgical capacity in two Ethiopian regions to inform priority areas for improvement.

Methods

A mixed-methods study was conducted using two tools adapted from the Lancet Commission's Surgical Assessment Tools: a quantitative Hospital Assessment Tool and a qualitative semistructured interview tool. Fifteen hospitals selected by the Federal Ministry of Health were surveyed in the Tigray and Amhara regions to assess the surgical system across five domains: service delivery, infrastructure, workforce, information management and financing.

Results

Service delivery was low across hospitals with a mean(s.d.) of 5(6) surgical cases per week and a narrow range of procedures performed. Hospitals reported varying availability of basic infrastructure, including constant availability of electricity (9 of 15) and running water (5 of 15). Unavailable or broken diagnostic equipment was also common. The majority of surgical and anaesthesia services were provided by non-physician clinicians, with little continuing education available. All hospitals tracked patient-level data regularly and eight of 15 hospitals reported surgical volume data during the assessment, but research activities were limited. Hospital financing specified for surgery was rare and the majority of patients must pay out of pocket for care.

Conclusion

Results from this study will inform programmes to simultaneously improve each of the health system domains in Ethiopia; this is required if better access to and quality of surgery, anaesthesia and obstetric services are to be achieved.

CPP-ACP Promotes SnF2 Efficacy in a Polymicrobial Caries Model

Dental caries is associated with plaque dysbiosis, leading to an increase in the proportions of acidogenic and aciduric bacteria at the expense of alkali-generating commensal species. Stannous fluoride (SnF₂) slows the progression of caries by remineralization of early lesions but has also been suggested to inhibit glycolysis of aciduric bacteria. Casein phosphopeptide-amorphous calcium phosphate (CPP-ACP) promotes fluoride remineralization by acting as a salivary biomimetic that releases bioavailable calcium and phosphate ions, and the peptide complex has also been suggested to modify plaque composition. We developed a polymicrobial biofilm model of caries using 6 bacterial species representative of supragingival plaque that were cultured on sound human enamel and pulsed with sucrose 4 times a day to produce a high cariogenic challenge. We used this model to explore the mechanisms of action of SnF₂ and CPP-ACP. Bacterial species in the biofilms were enumerated with 16S rRNA gene sequence analyses, and mineral loss and lesion formation were determined in the enamel directly under the polymicrobial biofilms via transverse microradiography. The model tested the twice-daily addition of SnF₂, CPP-ACP, or both. SnF₂ treatment reduced demineralization by 50% and had a slight effect on the composition of the polymicrobial biofilm. CPP-ACP treatment caused a similar inhibition of enamel demineralization (50%), a decrease in Actinomyces naeslundii and Lactobacillus casei abundance, and an increase in Streptococcus sanguinis and Fusobacterium nucleatum abundance in the polymicrobial biofilm. A combination of SnF₂ and CPP-ACP resulted in a greater suppression of the acidogenic and aciduric bacteria and a significant 72% inhibition of enamel demineralization.

Prognosis of the infected diabetic foot ulcer: a 12-month prospective observational study

AIMS

To determine clinical outcomes and explore prognostic factors related to ulcer healing in people with a clinically infected diabetic foot ulcer.

METHODS

This multicentre, prospective, observational study reviewed participants' data at 12 months after culture of a diabetic foot ulcer requiring antibiotic therapy. From participants' notes, we obtained information on the incidence of wound healing, ulcer recurrence, lower extremity amputation, lower extremity revascularization and death. We estimated the cumulative incidence of healing at 6 and 12 months, adjusted for lower extremity amputation and death using a competing risk analysis, and explored the relationship between baseline factors and healing incidence.

RESULTS

In the first year after culture of the index ulcer, 45/299 participants (15.1%) had died. The ulcer had healed in 136 participants (45.5%), but recurred in 13 (9.6%). An ipsilateral lower extremity amputation was recorded in 52 (17.4%) and revascularization surgery in 18 participants (6.0%). Participants with an ulcer present for ~2 months or more had a lower incidence of healing (hazard ratio 0.55, 95% CI 0.39 to 0.77), as did those with a PEDIS (perfusion, extent, depth, infection, sensation) perfusion grade of ≥2 (hazard ratio 0.37, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.55). Participants with a single ulcer on their index foot had a higher incidence of healing than those with multiple ulcers (hazard ratio 1.90, 95% CI 1.18 to 3.06).

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical outcomes at 12 months for people with an infected diabetic foot ulcer are generally poor. Our data confirm the adverse prognostic effect of limb ischaemia, longer ulcer duration and the presence of multiple ulcers.

Food acid content and erosive potential of sugar-free confections

BACKGROUND

Dental erosion is an increasingly prevalent problem associated with frequent consumption of acidic foods and beverages. The aim of this study was to measure the food acid content and the erosive potential of a variety of sugar-free confections.

METHODS

Thirty sugar-free confections were selected and extracts analysed to determine pH, titratable acidity, chemical composition and apparent degree of saturation with respect to apatite. The effect of the sugar-free confections in artificial saliva on human enamel was determined in an in vitro dental erosion assay using change in surface microhardness.

RESULTS

The change in surface microhardness was used to categorize the confections as high, moderate or low erosive potential. Seventeen of the 30 sugar-free confections were found to contain high concentrations of food acids, exhibit low pH and high titratable acidity and have high erosive potential. Significant correlations were found between the dental erosive potential (change in enamel surface microhardness) and pH and titratable acidity of the confections. Ten of these high erosive potential confections displayed dental messages on the packaging suggesting they were safe for teeth.

CONCLUSIONS

Many sugar-free confections, even some with 'Toothfriendly' messages on the product label, contain high contents of food acids and have erosive potential.