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Moggia D, Bennemann B, Schwartz B, Hehlmann MI, Driver CC, Lutz W. Process-Based psychotherapy personalization: considering causality with continuous-time dynamic modeling. Psychother Res 2023; 33:1076-1095. [PMID: 37306112 DOI: 10.1080/10503307.2023.2222892] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2022] [Accepted: 06/02/2023] [Indexed: 06/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Psychotherapy can be improved by integrating the study of mediators (how it works) and moderators (for whom it works). To demonstrate this integration, we studied the relationship between resource activation, problem-coping experiences and symptoms in cognitive-behavior therapy (CBT) for depression, to obtain preliminary insights on causal inference (which process leads to symptom improvement?) and prediction (which one for whom?). A sample of 715 patients with depression who received CBT was analyzed. Hierarchical Bayesian continuous time dynamic modeling was used to study the temporal dynamics between the variables analyzed within the first ten sessions. Depression and self-efficacy at baseline were examined as predictors of these dynamics. There were significant cross-effects between the processes studied. Under typical assumptions, resource activation had a significant effect on symptom improvement. Problem-coping experience had a significant effect on resource activation. Depression and self-efficacy moderated these effects. However, when system noise was considered, these effects may be affected by other processes. Resource activation was strongly associated with symptom improvement. To the extent of inferring causality, for patients with mild-moderate depression and high self-efficacy, promoting resource activation can be recommended. For patients with severe depression and low self-efficacy, promoting problem-coping experiences can be recommended.
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Driver CC, Tomasik MJ. Formalizing developmental phenomena as continuous-time systems: Relations between mathematics and language development. Child Dev 2023; 94:1454-1471. [PMID: 37661359 DOI: 10.1111/cdev.13990] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2022] [Revised: 05/26/2023] [Accepted: 07/23/2023] [Indexed: 09/05/2023]
Abstract
We demonstrate how developmental theories may be instantiated as statistical models, using hierarchical continuous-time dynamic systems. This approach offers a flexible specification and an often more direct link between theory and model parameters than common modeling frameworks. We address developmental theories of the relation between the academic competencies of mathematics and language, using data from the online learning system Mindsteps. We use ability estimates from 160,164 observation occasions, across N = 4623 3rd to 9th grade students and five ability domains. Model development is step-by-step from simple to complex, with ramifications for theory and modeling discussed at each step.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charles C Driver
- Institute of Education, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Martin J Tomasik
- Institute of Education, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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Bender AR, Driver CC, Hertzog C, Raz N. Instructing Use of an Effective Strategy Improves Recognition Memory in Healthy Adults. J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci 2023; 78:383-393. [PMID: 36130328 PMCID: PMC9985315 DOI: 10.1093/geronb/gbac144] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Age-related memory decrements correlate with metacognitive declines, including knowledge and deployment of effective mnemonic encoding strategies. However, whether imparting such strategy suffices for mitigating memory differences is unclear. METHOD In a longitudinal study of 276 healthy adults aged 18-79 years, we tested associative and working memory, and assessed beliefs regarding mnemonic strategies. Testing was repeated every 2 years, 5 times. Starting with the third occasion, we instructed participants to use an effective mnemonic strategy (sentence generation). Using continuous-time dynamic modeling, we assessed changes in the item and associative recognition, intervention effects, and their relations with age, sex, meta-memory beliefs, working memory, and metabolic health. RESULTS Younger age, better working memory, and stronger belief in effective mnemonic strategies predicted better recognition, whereas instructional intervention attenuated associative memory deficits, with some persistence over time. DISCUSSION The present findings show merely imparting effective strategies holds promise for mitigating age-related associative memory deficits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew R Bender
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
- Center for Lifespan Psychology, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany
| | - Charles C Driver
- Center for Lifespan Psychology, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany
- Institute of Education, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Christopher Hertzog
- School of Psychology, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Naftali Raz
- Center for Lifespan Psychology, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany
- Department of Psychology, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA
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Bender AR, Ganguli A, Meiring M, Hampstead BM, Driver CC. Dynamic modeling of practice effects across the healthy aging-Alzheimer’s disease continuum. Front Aging Neurosci 2022; 14:911559. [PMID: 35966791 PMCID: PMC9366308 DOI: 10.3389/fnagi.2022.911559] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2022] [Accepted: 06/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Standardized tests of learning and memory are sensitive to changes associated with both aging and superimposed neurodegenerative diseases. Unfortunately, repeated behavioral test administration can be confounded by practice effects (PE), which may obscure declines in level of abilities and contribute to misdiagnoses. Growing evidence, however, suggests PE over successive longitudinal measurements may differentially predict cognitive status and risk for progressive decline associated with aging, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and dementia. Thus, when viewed as a reflection of neurocognitive plasticity, PE may reveal residual abilities that can add to our understanding of age- and disease-related changes in learning and memory. The present study sought to evaluate differences in PE and verbal recall in a clinically characterized aging cohort assessed on multiple occasions over 3 years. Participants included 256 older adults recently diagnosed as cognitively unimpaired (CU; n = 126), or with MCI of amnestic (n = 65) or non-amnestic MCI (n = 2085), and multi-domain amnestic dementia of the Alzheimer’s type (DAT; n = 45). We applied a continuous time structural equation modeling (ctsem) approach to verbal recall performance on the Hopkins Verbal Learning Test in order to distinguish PE from individual occasion performance, coupled random changes, age trends, and differing measurement quality. Diagnoses of MCI and dementia were associated with lower recall performance on all trials, reduced PE gain per occasion, and differences in non-linear dynamic parameters. Practice self-feedback is a dynamic measure of the decay or acceleration in PE process changes over longitudinal occasions. As with PE and mean recall, estimated practice self-feedback followed a gradient from positive in CU participants to null in participants with diagnosed MCI and negative for those with dementia diagnoses. Evaluation of sensitivity models showed this pattern of variation in PE was largely unmodified by differences in age, sex, or educational attainment. These results show dynamic modeling of PE from longitudinal performance on standardized learning and memory tests can capture multiple aspects of behavioral changes in MCI and dementia. The present study provides a new perspective for modeling longitudinal change in verbal learning in clinical and cognitive aging research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew R. Bender
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Human Medicine, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States
- Graduate Program in Neuroscience, College of Natural Science, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States
- Michigan Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
- *Correspondence: Andrew R. Bender,
| | - Arkaprabha Ganguli
- Department of Statistics and Probability, College of Natural Science, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States
| | - Melinda Meiring
- Graduate Program in Neuroscience, College of Natural Science, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States
| | - Benjamin M. Hampstead
- Michigan Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
- Mental Health Service, VA Ann Arbor Healthcare System, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
- Research Program on Cognition and Neuromodulation Based Intervention, Department of Psychiatry, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
| | - Charles C. Driver
- Institute of Education, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
- Institute for Educational Evaluation, Associated Institute at the University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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Luo J, Zhang B, Estabrook R, Graham EK, Driver CC, Schalet BD, Turiano NA, Spiro A, Mroczek DK. Personality and health: Disentangling their between-person and within-person relationship in three longitudinal studies. J Pers Soc Psychol 2022; 122:493-522. [PMID: 35157486 PMCID: PMC8867777 DOI: 10.1037/pspp0000399] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
Personality traits and physical health both change over the life span. Theoretical models and empirical evidence suggest that these changes are related. The current study investigated the dynamic relations between personality traits and physical health at both the between-person and the within-person levels. Data were drawn from three longitudinal studies: the Veterans Affairs Normative Aging Study (NAS; N = 1,734), the Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social Sciences (LISS; N = 13,559), and the Swedish Adoption/Twin Study of Aging (SATSA, N = 2,209). Using random intercept cross-lagged panel models (RI-CLPMs) and the continuous time (CT) models, after controlling the between-person variance, generally, evidence was found for bidirectional associations between changes in neuroticism and extraversion and changes in self-rated health and general disease level. Bidirectional associations between changes in neuroticism and change in cardiovascular diseases and central nervous system diseases were observed only when time was modeled as continuous. We also found within-person associations between changes in neuroticism and extraversion and changes in performance-based ratings of motor functioning impairment. According to the current findings, the dynamic within-person relations between personality traits and health outcomes were largely in the direction consistent with their between-person connections, although the within-person relationships were substantially smaller in strength when compared their between-person counterparts. Findings from the current study highlight the importance of distinguishing between-person and within-person effects when examining the longitudinal relationship between personality traits and health. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).
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Affiliation(s)
- Jing Luo
- Department of Medical Social Sciences, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, 625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, IL 60611 USA
| | - Bo Zhang
- Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Texas A&M University, 4235 TAMU, College Station, TX 77843 USA
| | - Ryne Estabrook
- Department of Psychology, University of Illinois at Chicago, 1007 W. Harrison St., Chicago, IL 60607 USA
| | - Eileen K. Graham
- Department of Medical Social Sciences, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, 625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, IL 60611 USA
| | - Charles C. Driver
- Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Humboldt University, Lentzeallee 94, Berlin 14195, Germany
| | - Benjamin D. Schalet
- Department of Medical Social Sciences, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, 625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, IL 60611 USA
| | - Nicholas A. Turiano
- Department of Psychology, West Virginia University, 1124 Life Sciences Building, Morgantown, WV 26506 USA
| | - Avron Spiro
- Massachusetts Veterans Epidemiology Research & Information Center (MAVERIC), VA Boston Healthcare System, 150 S. Huntington Ave., Jamaica Plain, MA 02130 USA.,Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, 715 Albany St., Boston, MA 02118 USA.,Department of Psychiatry, Boston University School of Medicine, 720 Harrison Ave., Boston, MA 02118 USA
| | - Daniel K. Mroczek
- Department of Medical Social Sciences, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, 625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, IL 60611 USA.,Department of Psychology, Weinberg College of Arts & Sciences, Northwestern University, 2029 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208 USA
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Marciano L, Driver CC, Schulz PJ, Camerini AL. Dynamics of adolescents' smartphone use and well-being are positive but ephemeral. Sci Rep 2022; 12:1316. [PMID: 35079056 PMCID: PMC8789843 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-05291-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2021] [Accepted: 01/06/2022] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Well-being and smartphone use are thought to influence each other. However, previous studies mainly focused on one direction (looking at the effects of smartphone use on well-being) and considered between-person effects, with self-reported measures of smartphone use. By using 2548 assessments of well-being and trace data of smartphone use collected for 45 consecutive days in 82 adolescent participants (Mage = 13.47, SDage = 1.62, 54% females), the present study disentangled the reciprocal and individual dynamics of well-being and smartphone use. Hierarchical Bayesian Continuous Time Dynamic Models were used to estimate how a change in frequency and duration of smartphone use predicted a later change in well-being, and vice versa. Results revealed that (i) when participants used the smartphone frequently and for a longer period, they also reported higher levels of well-being; (ii) well-being positively predicted subsequent duration of smartphone use; (iii) usage patterns and system dynamics showed heterogeneity, with many subjects showing reciprocal effects close to zero; finally, (iv) changes in well-being tend to persist longer than changes in the frequency and duration of smartphone use.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Marciano
- Institute of Public Health, USI Università della Svizzera Italiana, Via Buffi 13, 6900, Lugano, Switzerland.
| | - Charles C Driver
- Institute of Education, University of Zurich, Freiestrasse 36, 8032, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Peter J Schulz
- Faculty of Communication, Culture, and Society, USI Università della Svizzera Italiana, Via Giuseppe Buffi 13, 6900, Lugano, Switzerland
| | - Anne-Linda Camerini
- Institute of Public Health, USI Università della Svizzera Italiana, Via Buffi 13, 6900, Lugano, Switzerland
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Fandakova Y, Leckey S, Driver CC, Bunge SA, Ghetti S. Neural specificity of scene representations is related to memory performance in childhood. Neuroimage 2019; 199:105-113. [PMID: 31121295 DOI: 10.1016/j.neuroimage.2019.05.050] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2018] [Revised: 05/16/2019] [Accepted: 05/18/2019] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Successful memory encoding is supported by medial temporal, retrosplenial, and occipital regions, which show developmental differences in recruitment from childhood to adulthood. However, little is known about the extent to which neural specificity in these brain regions, or the distinctiveness with which sensory information is represented, continues to develop during middle childhood and how it contributes to memory performance. The present study used multivariate pattern analysis to examine the distinctiveness of different scene representations in 169 children and 31 adults, and its relation to memory performance. Most children provided data over up to three measurement occasions between 8 and 15 years (267 total scans), allowing us to examine changes in memory and neural specificity over time. Memory performance was lower in children than in adults, and increased in children over time. Different scenes presented during memory encoding could be reliably decoded from parahippocampal, lateral occipital, and retrosplenial regions in children and adults. Neural specificity in children was similar to adults, and did not change reliably over time. Among children, higher neural specificity in scene-processing regions was associated with better memory concurrently. These results suggest that the distinctiveness with which incoming information is represented is important for memory performance in childhood, but other processes operating on these representations support developmental improvements in memory performance over time.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yana Fandakova
- Center for Lifespan Psychology, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, 14195, Berlin, Germany; Center for Mind and Brain, University of California, Davis, 267 Cousteau Place, Davis, CA 95616, USA; Helen Wills Neuroscience Institute, University of California, Berkeley, 132 Barker Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
| | - Sarah Leckey
- Center for Mind and Brain, University of California, Davis, 267 Cousteau Place, Davis, CA 95616, USA; Department of Psychology, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA
| | - Charles C Driver
- Center for Lifespan Psychology, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, 14195, Berlin, Germany
| | - Silvia A Bunge
- Helen Wills Neuroscience Institute, University of California, Berkeley, 132 Barker Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA; Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley, 3407 Tolman Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | - Simona Ghetti
- Center for Mind and Brain, University of California, Davis, 267 Cousteau Place, Davis, CA 95616, USA; Department of Psychology, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
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9
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Abstract
The lead-lag structure of multivariate time-ordered observations and the possibility to disentangle between-person (BP) from within-person (WP) sources of variance are major assets of longitudinal (panel) data. Hence, psychologists are making increasing use of such data, often with the intent to delineate the dynamic properties of psychological mechanisms, understood as a sequence of causal effects that govern psychological functioning. However, even with longitudinal data, psychological mechanisms are not easily identified. In this article, we show how an adequate representation of time may enhance the tenability of causal interpretations in the context of multivariate longitudinal data analysis. We anchor our considerations with an example that illustrates some of the main problems and questions faced by applied researchers and practitioners. We distinguish between static versus dynamic and discrete versus continuous time modeling approaches and discuss their advantages and disadvantages. We place particular emphasis on different ways of addressing BP differences and stress their dual role as potential confounds versus valuable sources of information for improving estimation and aiding causal inference. We conclude by outlining an approach that offers the potential of better integration of information on BP differences and WP changes in the search for causal mechanisms along with a discussion of current problems and limitations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Manuel C Voelkle
- a Department of Psychology , Humboldt University Berlin , Germany
- b Max Planck Institute for Human Development , Berlin , Germany
| | - Christian Gische
- a Department of Psychology , Humboldt University Berlin , Germany
| | | | - Ulman Lindenberger
- b Max Planck Institute for Human Development , Berlin , Germany
- c Max Planck UCL Centre for Computational Psychiatry and Ageing Research , Berlin , Germany, and London, UK
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Abstract
This article explains in detail the state space specification and estimation of first and higher-order autoregressive moving-average models in continuous time (CARMA) in an extended structural equation modeling (SEM) context for N = 1 as well as N > 1. To illustrate the approach, simulations will be presented in which a single panel model (T = 41 time points) is estimated for a sample of N = 1,000 individuals as well as for samples of N = 100 and N = 50 individuals, followed by estimating 100 separate models for each of the one-hundred N = 1 cases in the N = 100 sample. Furthermore, we will demonstrate how to test the difference between the full panel model and each N = 1 model by means of a subject-group-reproducibility test. Finally, the proposed analyses will be applied in an empirical example, in which the relationships between mood at work and mood at home are studied in a sample of N = 55 women. All analyses are carried out by ctsem, an R-package for continuous time modeling, interfacing to OpenMx.
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Affiliation(s)
- Johan H L Oud
- a Behavioural Science Institute , Radboud University , Nijmegen , The Netherlands
| | - Manuel C Voelkle
- b Department of Psychology , Humboldt University , Berlin , Germany , Max Planck Institute for Human Development , Berlin , Germany
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