Hospital care in the first 10 years of life of children with congenital anomalies in six European countries: data from the EUROlinkCAT cohort linkage study

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the hospital care for children born with a major congenital anomaly up to 10 years of age compared with children without a congenital anomaly.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PATIENTS

79 591 children with congenital anomalies and 2 021 772 children without congenital anomalies born 1995-2014 in six European countries in seven regions covered by congenital anomaly registries were linked to inpatient electronic health records up to their 10th birthday.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Number of days in hospital and number of surgeries.

RESULTS

During the first year of life among the seven regions, a median of 2.4% (IQR: 2.3, 3.2) of children with a congenital anomaly accounted for 18% (14, 24) of days in hospital and 63% (62, 76) of surgeries. Over the first 10 years of life, the percentages were 17% (15, 20) of days in hospital and 20% (19, 22) of surgeries. Children with congenital anomalies spent 8.8 (7.5, 9.9) times longer in hospital during their first year of life than children without anomalies (18 days compared with 2 days) and 5 (4.1-6.1) times longer aged, 5-9 (0.5 vs 0.1 days). In the first year of life, children with gastrointestinal anomalies spent 40 times longer and those with severe heart anomalies 20 times longer in hospital reducing to over 5 times longer when aged 5-9.

CONCLUSIONS

Children with a congenital anomaly consume a significant proportion of hospital care resources. Priority should be given to public health primary prevention measures to reduce the risk of congenital anomalies.

Surveillance of multiple congenital anomalies; searching for new associations

Many human teratogens are associated with a spectrum of congenital anomalies rather than a single defect, and therefore the identification of congenital anomalies occurring together more frequently than expected may improve the detection of teratogens. Thirty-two EUROCAT congenital anomaly registries covering 6,599,765 births provided 123,566 cases with one or more major congenital anomalies (excluding chromosomal and genetic syndromes) for the birth years 2008-2016. The EUROCAT multiple congenital anomaly algorithm identified 8804 cases with two or more major congenital anomalies in different organ systems, that were not recognized as part of a syndrome or sequence. For each pair of anomalies, the odds of a case having both anomalies relative to having only one anomaly was calculated and the p value was estimated using a two-sided Fisher's exact test. The Benjamini-Hochberg procedure adjusted p values to control the false discovery rate and pairs of anomalies with adjusted p values < 0.05 were identified. A total of 1386 combinations of two anomalies were analyzed. Out of the 31 statistically significant positive associations identified, 20 were found to be known associations or sequences already described in the literature and 11 were considered "potential new associations" by the EUROCAT Coding and Classification Committee. After a review of the literature and a detailed examination of the individual cases with the anomaly pairs, six pairs remained classified as new associations. In summary, systematically searching for congenital anomalies occurring together more frequently than expected using the EUROCAT database is worthwhile and has identified six new associations that merit further investigation.

Secondary (additional) findings from the 100,000 Genomes Project: Disease manifestation, health care outcomes, and costs of disclosure

PURPOSE

The UK 100,000 Genomes Project offered participants screening for additional findings (AFs) in genes associated with familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) or hereditary cancer syndromes including breast/ovarian cancer (HBOC), Lynch, familial adenomatous polyposis, MYH-associated polyposis, multiple endocrine neoplasia (MEN), and von Hippel-Lindau. Here, we report disclosure processes, manifestation of AF-related disease, outcomes, and costs.

METHODS

An observational study in an area representing one-fifth of England.

RESULTS

Data were collected from 89 adult AF recipients. At disclosure, among 57 recipients of a cancer-predisposition-associated AF and 32 recipients of an FH-associated AF, 35% and 88%, respectively, had personal and/or family history evidence of AF-related disease. During post-disclosure investigations, 4 cancer-AF recipients had evidence of disease, including 1 medullary thyroid cancer. Six women with an HBOC AF, 3 women with a Lynch syndrome AF, and 2 individuals with a MEN AF elected for risk-reducing surgery. New hyperlipidemia diagnoses were made in 6 FH-AF recipients and treatment (re-)initiated for 7 with prior hyperlipidemia. Generating and disclosing AFs in this region cost £1.4m; £8680 per clinically significant AF.

CONCLUSION

Generation and disclosure of AFs identifies individuals with and without personal or familial evidence of disease and prompts appropriate clinical interventions. Results can inform policy toward secondary findings.

Timing of Cardiac Surgical Interventions and Postoperative Mortality in Children With Severe Congenital Heart Defects Across Europe: Data From the EUROlinkCAT Study

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the timing of the first cardiac surgery, the number of cardiac surgeries performed, and 30-day postoperative mortality rate for children with severe congenital heart defects (sCHDs) in their first 5 years of life.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This was a population-based data linkage cohort study linking information from 9 European congenital anomaly registries to vital statistics and hospital databases. Data were extracted for 5693 children with sCHDs born from 1995 to 2004. Subgroup analyses were performed for specific types of sCHD. Children with sCHDs underwent their first surgical intervention at a median age of 3.6 (95% CI, 2.6-4.5) weeks. The timing of the first surgery for most subtypes of sCHD was consistent across Europe. In the first 5 years of life, children with hypoplastic left heart underwent the most cardiac surgeries, with a median of 4.4 (95% CI, 3.1-5.6). The 30-day postoperative mortality rate in children aged <1 year ranged from 1.1% (95% CI, 0.5%-2.1%) for tetralogy of Fallot to 23% (95% CI, 12%-37%) for Ebstein anomaly. The 30-day postoperative mortality rate was highest for children undergoing surgery in the first month of life. Overall 5-year survival for sCHD was <90% for all sCHDs, except transposition of the great arteries, tetralogy of Fallot, and coarctation of the aorta.

CONCLUSIONS

There were no major differences among the 9 regions in the timing, 30-day postoperative mortality rate, and number of operations performed for sCHD. Despite an overall good prognosis for most congenital heart defects, some lesions were still associated with substantial postoperative death.

Multiple imputation approaches for epoch-level accelerometer data in trials

Clinical trials that investigate physical activity interventions often use accelerometers to measure step count at a very granular level, for example in 5-second epochs. Participants typically wear the accelerometer for a week-long period at baseline, and for one or more week-long follow-up periods after the intervention. The data is aggregated to provide daily or weekly step counts for the primary analysis. Missing data are common as participants may not wear the device as per protocol. Approaches to handling missing data in the literature have defined missingness on the day level using a threshold on daily weartime, which leads to loss of information on the time of day when data are missing. We propose an approach to identifying and classifying missingness at the finer epoch-level and present two approaches to handling missingness using multiple imputation. Firstly, we present a parametric approach which accounts for the number of missing epochs per day. Secondly, we describe a non-parametric approach where missing periods during the day are replaced by donor data from the same person where possible, or data from a different person who is matched on demographic and physical activity-related variables. Our simulation studies show that the non-parametric approach leads to estimates of the effect of treatment that are least biased while maintaining small standard errors. We illustrate the application of these different multiple imputation strategies to the analysis of the 2017 PACE-UP trial. The proposed framework is likely to be applicable to other digital health outcomes and to other wearable devices.

Prevalence of co-morbidity and history of recent infection in patients with neuromuscular disease: A cross-sectional analysis of United Kingdom primary care data

BACKGROUND

People with neuromuscular disease (NMD) experience a broader range of chronic diseases and health symptoms compared to the general population. However, no comprehensive analysis has directly quantified this to our knowledge.

METHODS

We used a large UK primary care database (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) to compare the prevalence of chronic diseases and other health conditions, including recent infections between 23,876 patients with NMD ever recorded by 2019 compared to 95,295 age-sex-practice matched patients without NMD. Modified Poisson regression estimated Prevalence Ratios (PR) to summarise the presence of the disease/condition ever (or for infections in 2018) in NMD patients versus non-NMD patients.

RESULTS

Patients with NMD had significantly higher rates for 16 of the 18 conditions routinely recorded in the primary care Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF). Approximately 1-in-10 adults with NMD had ≥4 conditions recorded (PR = 1.39, 95%CI 1.33-1.45). Disparities were more pronounced at younger ages (18-49). For other (non-QOF) health conditions, significantly higher recorded levels were observed for rarer events (pulmonary embolism PR = 1.96 95%CI 1.76-2.18, hip fractures PR = 1.65 95%CI 1.47-1.85) as well as for more common primary care conditions (constipation PR = 1.52 95%CI 1.46-1.57, incontinence PR = 1.52 95%CI 1.44-1.60). The greatest co-morbidity burden was in patients with a myotonic disorder. Approximately 1-in-6 (17.1%) NMD patients had an infection recorded in the preceding year, with the risk of being hospitalised with an infection nearly double (PR = 1.92, 95%CI 1.79-2.07) compared to non-NMD patients.

CONCLUSION

The burden of chronic co-morbidity among patients with NMD is extremely high compared to the general population, and they are also more likely to present in primary and secondary care for acute events such as infections.

Hospital Length of Stay and Surgery among European Children with Rare Structural Congenital Anomalies-A Population-Based Data Linkage Study

Little is known about morbidity for children with rare structural congenital anomalies. This European, population-based data-linkage cohort study analysed data on hospitalisations and surgical procedures for 5948 children born 1995-2014 with 18 rare structural congenital anomalies from nine EUROCAT registries in five countries. In the first year of life, the median length of stay (LOS) ranged from 3.5 days (anotia) to 53.8 days (atresia of bile ducts). Generally, children with gastrointestinal anomalies, bladder anomalies and Prune-Belly had the longest LOS. At ages 1-4, the median LOS per year was ≤3 days for most anomalies. The proportion of children having surgery before age 5 years ranged from 40% to 100%. The median number of surgical procedures for those under 5 years was two or more for 14 of the 18 anomalies and the highest for children with Prune-Belly at 7.4 (95% CI 2.5-12.3). The median age at first surgery for children with atresia of bile ducts was 8.4 weeks (95% CI 7.6-9.2) which is older than international recommendations. Results from the subset of registries with data up to 10 years of age showed that the need for hospitalisations and surgery continued. The burden of disease in early childhood is high for children with rare structural congenital anomalies.

European study showed that children with congenital anomalies often underwent multiple surgical procedures at different ages across Europe

AIM

Children with congenital anomalies often require surgery but data on the burden of surgery for these children are limited.

METHODS

A population-based record-linkage study in Finland, Wales and regions of Denmark, England, Italy and Spain. A total of 91 504 children with congenital anomalies born in 1995-2014 were followed to their tenth birthday or the end of 2015. Electronic linkage to hospital databases provided data on inpatient surgical procedures and meta-analyses of surgical procedures were performed by age groups.

RESULTS

The percentage of children having surgery in the first year was 38% with some differences across regions and 14% also underwent surgery at age 1-4 years. Regional differences in age at the time of their first surgical procedure were observed for children with cleft palate, hydronephrosis, hypospadias, clubfoot and craniosynostosis. The children had a median of 2.0 (95% CI 1.98, 2.02) surgical procedures before age 5 years with children with oesophageal atresia having the highest median number of procedures (4.5; 95% CI 3.3, 5.8).

CONCLUSION

A third of children with congenital anomalies required surgery during infancy and often more than one procedure was needed before age 5 years. There was no European consensus on the preferred age for surgery for some anomalies.

Prevalence of vascular disruption anomalies and association with young maternal age: A EUROCAT study to compare the United Kingdom with other European countries

BACKGROUND

Younger mothers are at a greater risk of having a pregnancy with gastroschisis and the risk is higher in the United Kingdom than other European countries. Gastroschisis is thought to be a vascular disruption anomaly and the aim of this study was to analyze the prevalence of other possible vascular disruption anomalies to determine whether both the younger maternal age and the UK associations also occur with these anomalies.

METHODS

All pregnancies with anomalies considered potentially due to vascular disruption from January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2017 from 26 European population-based congenital anomaly registries who were members of EUROCAT were analyzed. Multilevel models were used to allow for differences between registries when analyzing associations with maternal age, year of birth and whether the registry was in the United Kingdom.

RESULTS

There were 5,220 cases with potential vascular disruption anomalies, excluding chromosomal and genetic conditions, with a prevalence of 8.85 per 10,000 births in the United Kingdom and 5.44 in the other European countries. The prevalence per 10,000 births of gastroschisis (4.45 vs. 1.56) and congenital constriction bands (0.83 vs. 0.42) was significantly higher in the United Kingdom, even after adjusting for maternal age. However, transverse limb reduction defects had a similar prevalence (2.16 vs. 2.14 per 10,000). The expected increased prevalence in younger mothers was observed for vascular disruption anomalies overall and for the individual anomalies: gastroschisis and congenital constriction bands.

CONCLUSION

Vascular disruption anomalies that had an increased risk for younger mothers (such as gastroschisis) had a higher maternal age standardized prevalence in the United Kingdom, while vascular disruption anomalies with weaker associations with younger mothers (such as transverse limb reduction defects) did not have an increased prevalence in the United Kingdom, which may indicate a different etiology for these anomalies.

Gastrostomy and congenital anomalies: a European population-based study

OBJECTIVE

To report and compare the proportion of children with and without congenital anomalies undergoing gastrostomy for tube feeding in their first 5 years.

METHODS

A European, population-based data-linkage cohort study (EUROlinkCAT). Children up to 5 years of age registered in nine EUROCAT registries (national and regional) in six countries and children without congenital anomalies (reference children) living in the same geographical areas were included. Data on hospitalisation and surgical procedures for all children were obtained by electronic linkage to hospital databases.

RESULTS

The study included 91 504 EUROCAT children and 1 960 272 reference children. Overall, 1200 (1.3%, 95% CI 1.2% to 1.6%) EUROCAT children and 374 (0.016%, 95% CI 0.009% to 0.026%) reference children had a surgical code for gastrostomy within the first 5 years of life. There were geographical variations across Europe with higher rates in Northern Europe compared with Southern Europe. Around one in four children with Cornelia de Lange syndrome and Wolf-Hirschhorn syndrome had a gastrostomy. Among children with structural anomalies, those with oesophageal atresia had the highest proportion of gastrostomy (15.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

This study including almost 2 million reference children in Europe found that only 0.016% of these children had a surgery code for gastrostomy before age 5 years. The children with congenital anomalies were on average 80 times more likely to need a gastrostomy before age 5 years than children without congenital anomalies. More than two-thirds of gastrostomy procedures performed within the first 5 years of life were in children with congenital anomalies.

Prevalence of microcephaly: the Latin American Network of Congenital Malformations 2010-2017

OBJECTIVE

The Latin American Network of Congenital Malformations: ReLAMC was established in 2017 to provide accurate congenital anomaly surveillance. This study used data from ReLAMC registries to quantify the prevalence of microcephaly from 2010 to 2017 (before, during and after the Zika virus epidemic).

DESIGN

Nine ReLAMC congenital anomaly registries provided case-level data or aggregate data for any live births, still births or terminations of pregnancy with microcephaly. Births to pregnant women infected with Zika virus first occurred in Brazil in 2015, and in the remaining registry areas in 2016 with the exception of Chile that did not experience Zika virus. Therefore the prevalence of microcephaly for 2010-2014 and individual years 2015, 2016 and 2017 was estimated using multilevel random effect Poisson models. Clinical classification and characteristics of the cases were compared pre and post Zika for all centres providing individual case-level data.

RESULTS

The prevalence of microcephaly for all registries excluding Brazil was 2.3 per 10 000 (95% CI 2.0 to 2.6) for 2010-2014 rising to 5.4 (95% CI 4.8 to 6.0) in 2016 and 5.9 (95% CI 5.3 to 6.6) in 2017. Brazil had a prevalence of 0.6 per 10 000 (95% CI 0.5 to 0.6) in 2010-2014, rising to 5.8 (95% CI 5.6 to 6.1) in 2015, 8.0 (95% CI 7.6 to 8.3) in 2016 and then falling in 2017. Only 29 out of 687 cases of microcephaly were reported as congenital Zika syndrome in countries excluding Brazil.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of microcephaly was influenced both by Zika causing congenital Zika syndrome and by increased reporting awareness.

Prevention of Neural Tube Defects in Europe: A Public Health Failure

Objective: Thirty years ago it was demonstrated that folic acid taken before pregnancy and in early pregnancy reduced the risk of a neural tube defect (NTD). Despite Public Health Initiatives across Europe recommending that women take 0.4 mg folic acid before becoming pregnant and during the first trimester, the prevalence of NTD pregnancies has not materially decreased in the EU since 1998, in contrast to the dramatic fall observed in the USA. This study aimed to estimate the number of NTD pregnancies that would have been prevented if flour had been fortified with folic acid in Europe from 1998 as it had been in the USA. Design and Setting: The number of NTD pregnancies from 1998 to 2017 that would have been prevented if folic acid fortification had been implemented in the 28 countries who were members of the European Union in 2019 was predicted was predicted using data on NTD prevalence from 35 EUROCAT congenital anomaly registries and literature searches for population serum folate levels and folic acid supplementation. Results: From 1998 to 2017 an estimated 95,213 NTD pregnancies occurred amongst 104 million births in the 28 countries in the EU, a prevalence of 0.92 per 1,000 births. The median serum folate level in Europe over this time period was estimated to be 14.1 μg/L. There is a lack of information about women taking folic acid supplements before becoming pregnant and during the first trimester of pregnancy, with one meta-analysis indicating that around 25% of women did so. An estimated 14,600 NTD pregnancies may have been prevented if the European countries had implemented fortification at the level adopted by the USA in 1998 and 25% of women took folic acid supplements. An estimated 19,500 NTD pregnancies would have been prevented if no women took folic acid supplements. Conclusions: This study suggests that failure to implement mandatory folic acid fortification in the 28 European countries has caused, and continues to cause, neural tube defects to occur in almost 1,000 pregnancies every year.

Longitudinal impact of changes in the residential built environment on physical activity: findings from the ENABLE London cohort study

BACKGROUND

Previous research has reported associations between features of the residential built environment and physical activity but these studies have mainly been cross-sectional, limiting inference. This paper examines whether changes in a range of residential built environment features are associated with changes in measures of physical activity in adults. It also explores whether observed effects are moderated by socio-economic status.

METHODS

Data from the Examining Neighbourhood Activity in Built Living Environments in London (ENABLE London) study were used. A cohort of 1278 adults seeking to move into social, intermediate, and market-rent East Village accommodation was recruited in 2013-2015, and followed up after 2 years. Accelerometer-derived steps (primary outcome), and GIS-derived measures of residential walkability, park proximity and public transport accessibility were obtained both at baseline and follow-up. Daily steps at follow-up were regressed on daily steps at baseline, change in built environment exposures and confounding variables using multilevel linear regression to assess if changes in neighbourhood walkability, park proximity and public transport accessibility were associated with changes in daily steps. We also explored whether observed effects were moderated by housing tenure as a marker of socio-economic status.

RESULTS

Between baseline and follow-up, participants experienced a 1.4 unit (95%CI 1.2,1.6) increase in neighbourhood walkability; a 270 m (95%CI 232,307) decrease in distance to their nearest park; and a 0.7 point (95% CI 0.6,0.9) increase in accessibility to public transport. A 1 s.d. increase in neighbourhood walkability was associated with an increase of 302 (95%CI 110,494) daily steps. A 1 s.d. increase in accessibility to public transport was not associated with any change in steps overall, but was associated with a decrease in daily steps amongst social housing seekers (- 295 steps (95%CI - 595, 3), and an increase in daily steps for market-rent housing seekers (410 95%CI -191, 1010) (P-value for effect modification = 0.03).

CONCLUSION

Targeted changes in the residential built environment may result in increases in physical activity levels. However, the effect of improved accessibility to public transport may not be equitable, showing greater benefit to the more advantaged.

A pedometer-based walking intervention in 45- to 75-year-olds, with and without practice nurse support: the PACE-UP three-arm cluster RCT

BACKGROUND

Guidelines recommend walking to increase moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) for health benefits.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and acceptability of a pedometer-based walking intervention in inactive adults, delivered postally or through dedicated practice nurse physical activity (PA) consultations.

DESIGN

Parallel three-arm trial, cluster randomised by household.

SETTING

Seven London-based general practices.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 11,015 people without PA contraindications, aged 45-75 years, randomly selected from practices, were invited. A total of 6399 people were non-responders, and 548 people self-reporting achieving PA guidelines were excluded. A total of 1023 people from 922 households were randomised to usual care (n = 338), postal intervention (n = 339) or nurse support (n = 346). The recruitment rate was 10% (1023/10,467). A total of 956 participants (93%) provided outcome data.

INTERVENTIONS

Intervention groups received pedometers, 12-week walking programmes advising participants to gradually add '3000 steps in 30 minutes' most days weekly and PA diaries. The nurse group was offered three dedicated PA consultations.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary and main secondary outcomes were changes from baseline to 12 months in average daily step counts and time in MVPA (in ≥ 10-minute bouts), respectively, from 7-day accelerometry. Individual resource-use data informed the within-trial economic evaluation and the Markov model for simulating long-term cost-effectiveness. Qualitative evaluations assessed nurse and participant views. A 3-year follow-up was conducted.

RESULTS

Baseline average daily step count was 7479 [standard deviation (SD) 2671], average minutes per week in MVPA bouts was 94 minutes (SD 102 minutes) for those randomised. PA increased significantly at 12 months in both intervention groups compared with the control group, with no difference between interventions; additional steps per day were 642 steps [95% confidence interval (CI) 329 to 955 steps] for the postal group and 677 steps (95% CI 365 to 989 steps) for nurse support, and additional MVPA in bouts (minutes per week) was 33 minutes per week (95% CI 17 to 49 minutes per week) for the postal group and 35 minutes per week (95% CI 19 to 51 minutes per week) for nurse support. Intervention groups showed no increase in adverse events. Incremental cost per step was 19p and £3.61 per minute in a ≥ 10-minute MVPA bout for nurse support, whereas the postal group took more steps and cost less than the control group. The postal group had a 50% chance of being cost-effective at a £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) threshold within 1 year and had both lower costs [-£11M (95% CI -£12M to -£10M) per 100,000 population] and more QALYs [759 QALYs gained (95% CI 400 to 1247 QALYs)] than the nurse support and control groups in the long term. Participants and nurses found the interventions acceptable and enjoyable. Three-year follow-up data showed persistent intervention effects (nurse support plus postal vs. control) on steps per day [648 steps (95% CI 272 to 1024 steps)] and MVPA bouts [26 minutes per week (95% CI 8 to 44 minutes per week)].

LIMITATIONS

The 10% recruitment level, with lower levels in Asian and socioeconomically deprived participants, limits the generalisability of the findings. Assessors were unmasked to the group.

CONCLUSIONS

A primary care pedometer-based walking intervention in 45- to 75-year-olds increased 12-month step counts by around one-tenth, and time in MVPA bouts by around one-third, with similar effects for the nurse support and postal groups, and persistent 3-year effects. The postal intervention provides cost-effective, long-term quality-of-life benefits. A primary care pedometer intervention delivered by post could help address the public health physical inactivity challenge.

FUTURE WORK

Exploring different recruitment strategies to increase uptake. Integrating the Pedometer And Consultation Evaluation-UP (PACE-UP) trial with evolving PA monitoring technologies.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN98538934.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 37. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Short-term and long-term cost-effectiveness of a pedometer-based exercise intervention in primary care: a within-trial analysis and beyond-trial modelling

OBJECTIVES

A short-term and long-term cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of two pedometer-based walking interventions compared with usual care.

DESIGN

(A) Short-term CEA: parallel three-arm cluster randomised trial randomised by household. (B) Long-term CEA: Markov decision model.

SETTING

Seven primary care practices in South London, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

(A) Short-term CEA: 1023 people (922 households) aged 45-75 years without physical activity (PA) contraindications. (b) Long-term CEA: a cohort of 100 000 people aged 59-88 years.

INTERVENTIONS

Pedometers, 12-week walking programmes and PA diaries delivered by post or through three PA consultations with practice nurses.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Accelerometer-measured change (baseline to 12 months) in average daily step count and time in 10 min bouts of moderate to vigorous PA (MVPA), and EQ-5D-5L quality-adjusted life-years (QALY).

METHODS

Resource use costs (£2013/2014) from a National Health Service perspective, presented as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for each outcome over a 1-year and lifetime horizon, with cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and willingness to pay per QALY. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses evaluate uncertainty.

RESULTS

(A) Short-term CEA: At 12 months, incremental cost was £3.61 (£109)/min in ≥10 min MVPA bouts for nurse support compared with control (postal group). At £20 000/QALY, the postal group had a 50% chance of being cost saving compared with control. (B) Long-term CEA: The postal group had more QALYs (+759 QALYs, 95% CI 400 to 1247) and lower costs (-£11 million, 95% CI -12 to -10) than control and nurse groups, resulting in an incremental net monetary benefit of £26 million per 100 000 population. Results were sensitive to reporting serious adverse events, excluding health service use, and including all participant costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Postal delivery of a pedometer intervention in primary care is cost-effective long term and has a 50% chance of being cost-effective, through resource savings, within 1 year. Further research should ascertain maintenance of the higher levels of PA, and its impact on quality of life and health service use.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN98538934; Pre-results.

Interpreting population reach of a large, successful physical activity trial delivered through primary care

Background

Failure to include socio-economically deprived or ethnic minority groups in physical activity (PA) trials may limit representativeness and could lead to implementation of interventions that then increase health inequalities. Randomised intervention trials often have low recruitment rates and rarely assess recruitment bias. A previous trial by the same team using similar methods recruited 30% of the eligible population but was in an affluent setting with few non-white residents and was limited to those over 60 years of age.

Methods

PACE-UP is a large, effective, population-based walking trial in inactive 45-75 year-olds that recruited through seven London general practices. Anonymised practice demographic data were available for all those invited, enabling investigation of inequalities in trial recruitment. Non-participants were invited to complete a questionnaire.

Results

From 10,927 postal invitations, 1150 (10.5%) completed baseline assessment. Participation rate ratios (95% CI), adjusted for age and gender as appropriate, were lower in men 0.59 (0.52, 0.67) than women, in those under 55 compared with those ≥65, 0.60 (0.51, 0.71), in the most deprived quintile compared with the least deprived 0.52 (0.39, 0.70) and in Asian individuals compared with whites 0.62 (0.50, 0.76). Black individuals were equally likely to participate as white individuals. Participation was also associated with having a co-morbidity or some degree of health limitation. The most common reasons for non-participation were considering themselves as being too active or lack of time.

Conclusions

Conducting the trial in this diverse setting reduced overall response, with lower response in socio-economically deprived and Asian sub-groups. Trials with greater reach are likely to be more expensive in terms of recruitment and gains in generalizability need to be balanced with greater costs. Differential uptake of successful trial interventions may increase inequalities in PA levels and should be monitored.

Trial registration

ISRCTN.com ISRCTN98538934. Registered 2nd March 2012.

Evaluation of reliability and validity of the General Practice Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPPAQ) in 60-74 year old primary care patients

BACKGROUND

GPPAQ (General Practice Physical Activity Questionnaire) is a self-assessment physical activity questionnaire widely used in primary care. Reliability and validity data in older people are lacking. The study aims were: to assess GPPAQ's reliability and validity in 60-74 year olds from the PACE-Lift (Pedometer Accelerometer Consultation Evaluation-Lift) physical activity trial; and to assess whether adding brisk walking to the GPPAQ score improves its validity when assessing if physical activity guidelines are being met.

METHOD

Physical activity was assessed objectively by accelerometry and by self-report GPPAQ over one week periods at baseline, and three and twelve months later, in 60-74 year old participants from three United Kingdom general practices enrolled in PACE-Lift. Reliability: GPPAQ scores in controls (n = 148) were compared for repeatability at baseline, 3 and 12 months.

VALIDITY

we compared the GPPAQ "active" rating (those not requiring physical activity advice) with those achieving physical activity guidelines using accelerometry, in all baseline subjects (n = 298). Using accelerometry as an objective comparator, GPPAQ sensitivity and specificity were calculated and repeated after adding brisk walking into the GPPAQ score (GPPAQ-WALK).

RESULTS

For reliability, GPPAQ showed 56 % (70/126) and 67 % (87/129) of controls scored the same at 3 and 12 months respectively, as they scored at baseline. At baseline 24 % (69/289) achieved physical activity guidelines according to accelerometry, whilst 16 % (47/289) were classified as GPPAQ "active". GPPAQ had 19 % (13/69) sensitivity and 85 % (186/220) specificity. GPPAQ-WALK had 39 % (27/69) sensitivity and 70 % (155/220) specificity.

CONCLUSIONS

GPPAQ has reasonable reliability but results from this study measuring validity in older adults indicates poor agreement with objective accelerometry for accurately identifying physical activity levels. Including brisk walking in GPPAQ increased sensitivity, but reduced specificity and did not improve overall screening performance. GPPAQ's use in National Health Service health checks in primary care in this age group cannot therefore be supported by this validity study comparing to accelerometry.

PACE-UP (Pedometer and consultation evaluation--UP)--a pedometer-based walking intervention with and without practice nurse support in primary care patients aged 45-75 years: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Most adults do not achieve the 150 minutes weekly of at least moderate intensity activity recommended for health. Adults' most common physical activity (PA) is walking, light intensity if strolling, moderate if brisker. Pedometers can increase walking; however, most trials have been short-term, have combined pedometer and support effects, and have not reported PA intensity. This trial will investigate whether pedometers, with or without nurse support, can help less active 45-75 year olds to increase their PA over 12 months.

METHODS/DESIGN

DESIGN

Primary care-based 3-arm randomized controlled trial with 12-month follow-up and health economic and qualitative evaluations.

PARTICIPANTS

Less active 45-75 year olds (n = 993) will be recruited by post from six South West London general practices, maximum of two per household and households randomised into three groups. Step-count and time spent at different PA intensities will be assessed for 7 days at baseline, 3 and 12 months by accelerometer. Questionnaires and anthropometric assessments will be completed.

INTERVENTION

The pedometer-alone group will be posted a pedometer (Yamax Digi-Walker SW-200), handbook and diary detailing a 12-week pedometer-based walking programme, using targets from their baseline assessment. The pedometer-plus-support group will additionally receive three practice nurse PA consultations. The handbook, diary and consultations include behaviour change techniques (e.g., self-monitoring, goal-setting, relapse prevention planning). The control group will receive usual care.

OUTCOMES

Changes in average daily step-count (primary outcome), time spent sedentary and in at least moderate intensity PA weekly at 12 months, measured by accelerometry. Other outcomes include change in body mass index, body fat, self-reported PA, quality of life, mood and adverse events. Cost-effectiveness will be assessed by the incremental cost of the intervention to the National Health Service and incremental cost per change in step-count and per quality adjusted life year. Qualitative evaluations will explore reasons for trial non-participation and the interventions' acceptability.

DISCUSSION

The PACE-UP trial will determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a pedometer-based walking intervention delivered by post or practice nurse to less active primary care patients aged 45-75 years old. Approaches to minimise bias and challenges anticipated in delivery will be discussed.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN98538934.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs).

METHODS

Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis.

FINDINGS

Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350,000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Rates of YLDs per 100,000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time.

METHODS

We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions.

INTERPRETATION

Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Risk factors for respiratory morbidity in infancy after very premature birth

OBJECTIVES

To determine the occurrence of respiratory morbidity during infancy after very premature birth and to identify risk factors.

DESIGN

Prospective follow up study.

SETTING

The United Kingdom oscillation study.

PATIENTS

492 infants, all born before 29 weeks gestation.

INTERVENTIONS

Structured questionnaires were completed by local paediatricians when the infants were seen in outpatients at 6 and 12 months of age corrected for prematurity.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cough, wheeze, and treatment requirements and the composite measure of respiratory morbidity (cough, frequent cough, cough without infection, wheeze, frequent wheeze, wheeze without infection, and use of chest medicine) and their relation to 13 possible explanatory variables.

RESULTS

At 6 and 12 months of corrected age, 27% of the infants coughed and 6% had frequent (more than once a week) cough, and 20% and 3% respectively had wheeze or frequent wheeze. At 6 and 12 months, 14% of infants had taken bronchodilators and 8% inhaled steroids. After adjustment for multiple outcome testing, four factors were associated with increased respiratory morbidity: male sex, oxygen dependency at 36 weeks postmenstrual age, having older siblings aged less than 5 years, and living in rented accommodation.

CONCLUSIONS

Male infants are particularly vulnerable to respiratory morbidity in infancy after very premature birth. It is important to identify a safe and effective strategy to prevent chronic oxygen dependency.

Radiological outcome of very prematurely born infants randomised to high frequency oscillatory or conventional ventilation

The appearance of the chest radiograph (CXR) at 28 days after birth or 36 weeks post-menstrual age (PMA) has been shown to be predictive of respiratory symptoms at follow-up. The aim of this study was to determine whether the CXR appearance at 28 days or 36 weeks PMA differed according to the ventilatory mode used in the perinatal period. CXRs were routinely obtained at 28 days and 36 weeks PMA from infants entered into a multicentre randomised trial (UKOS) comparing high frequency oscillatory ventilation (HFOV) and conventional mechanical ventilation (CMV); the ventilation allocation mode had been instituted within 60 min of birth. The CXRs were assessed using a scoring system (maximum score 8) for the presence of fibrosis/interstitial shadows, cystic elements and hyperinflation. A total of 487 infants, median gestational age 26+5 weeks (range 23-28+6 weeks) and birth weight 865 g (range 428-1459 g) who had had a CXR taken at 28 days and/or 36 weeks PMA. No significant differences were found between the total CXR scores of the two groups either at 28 days or 36 weeks PMA (mean scores 3.2 HFOV versus 3.5 CMV, 95%CI for difference -0.66 to 0.06, P=0.11 at 28 days and mean scores 3.5 HFOV versus 3.6 CMV, 95% for difference -0.49 to 0.29, P=0.61 at 36 weeks PMA).

CONCLUSION

These results are consistent with high frequency oscillatory ventilation and conventional mechanical ventilation having similar effects on pulmonary function in very prematurely born infants.

Prediction of outcome from the chest radiograph appearance on day 7 of very prematurely born infants

Our aim was to determine whether the chest radiograph appearance at 7 days predicted chronic lung disease development (oxygen dependency at 36 weeks post-menstrual age) or death before discharge and if it was a better predictor than readily available clinical data. Two consecutive studies were performed. In both, chest radiographs taken at 7 days for clinical purposes were assessed using a scoring system for the presence of fibrosis/interstitial shadows, cystic elements and hyperinflation and data were collected regarding gestational age, birth weight, use of antenatal steroids and post-natal surfactant and requirement for ventilation at 7 days. Oxygenation indices were calculated in the first study (study A) at 120 h and in the second (study B) at 168 h. In study A, there were 59 infants with a median gestational age of 26 weeks (range 24 to 28 weeks) and in study B, 40 infants with a median gestational age of 27 weeks (range 25-31 weeks). In both studies, infants who developed chronic lung disease had a significantly higher total chest radiograph score, with a higher score for fibrosis/interstitial shadowing than the rest of the cohort. Infants who died before discharge differed significantly from the rest with regard to significantly higher scores for cysts. In both studies, the areas under the receiver operator characteristic curves with regard to prediction of chronic lung disease were higher for the total chest radiograph score compared to those for readily available clinical data.

CONCLUSION

In infants who require a chest radiograph for clinical purposes at 7 days, the chest radiograph appearance can facilitate prediction of outcome of infants born very prematurely.

Frequent wheeze at follow up of very preterm infants: which factors are predictive?

OBJECTIVE

To determine if chest radiograph appearance at 28 days or 36 weeks postmenstrual age (PMA) can predict recurrent wheeze or cough at follow up in prematurely born infants more effectively than readily available clinical data.

DESIGN

Chest radiographs of infants entered into the UKOS trial, who had had a chest radiograph at 28 days and 36 weeks PMA and completed six months of follow up, were assessed for the presence of fibrosis, interstitial shadows, cystic elements, and hyperinflation. At 6 months of corrected age, the occurrence and frequency of wheeze and cough since discharge were determined using a symptom questionnaire.

PATIENTS

A total of 185 infants with a median gestational age of 26 (range 23-28) weeks.

RESULTS

Thirty seven infants wheezed more than once a week, compared with the rest of the cohort. These infants had significantly higher chest radiograph scores at 28 days (p = 0.020) and 36 weeks PMA (p = 0.005), with significantly higher scores at 28 days for fibrosis (p = 0.017) and at 36 weeks PMA for fibrosis (p = 0.001) and cystic elements (p = 0.0007). They had also been ventilated for longer (p = 0.013). Forty four infants coughed more than once a week; they did not differ significantly from the rest of the cohort. An abnormal chest radiograph score at 36 weeks PMA had the largest area under the receiver operator characteristic curve with regard to prediction of frequent wheeze.

CONCLUSION

An abnormal chest radiograph appearance at 36 weeks PMA predicts frequent wheeze at follow up and appears to be a better predictor than readily available clinical data.