United States Value Set for the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-General Eight Dimensions (FACT-8D), a Cancer-Specific Preference-Based Quality of Life Instrument

OBJECTIVES

To develop a value set reflecting the United States (US) general population's preferences for health states described by the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy (FACT) eight-dimensions preference-based multi-attribute utility instrument (FACT-8D), derived from the FACT-General cancer-specific health-related quality-of-life (HRQL) questionnaire.

METHODS

A US online panel was quota-sampled to achieve a general population sample representative by sex, age (≥ 18 years), race and ethnicity. A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was used to value health states. The valuation task involved choosing between pairs of health states (choice-sets) described by varying levels of the FACT-8D HRQL dimensions and survival (life-years). The DCE included 100 choice-sets; each respondent was randomly allocated 16 choice-sets. Data were analysed using conditional logit regression parameterized to fit the quality-adjusted life-year framework, weighted for sociodemographic variables that were non-representative of the US general population. Preference weights were calculated as the ratio of HRQL-level coefficients to the survival coefficient.

RESULTS

2562 panel members opted in, 2462 (96%) completed at least one choice-set and 2357 (92%) completed 16 choice-sets. Pain and nausea were associated with the largest utility weights, work and sleep had more moderate utility weights, and sadness, worry and support had the smallest utility weights. Within dimensions, more severe HRQL levels were generally associated with larger weights. A preference-weighting algorithm to estimate US utilities from responses to the FACT-General questionnaire was generated. The worst health state's value was -0.33.

CONCLUSIONS

This value set provides US population utilities for health states defined by the FACT-8D for use in evaluating oncology treatments.

Health workforce perceptions on telehealth augmentation opportunities

BACKGROUND

The availability and use of telehealth to support health care access from a distance has expanded in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Telehealth services have supported regional and remote health care access for many years and could be augmented to improve health care accessibility, acceptability and overall experiences for both consumers and clinicians. This study aimed to explore health workforce representatives' needs and expectations to move beyond existing telehealth models and plan for the future of virtual care.

METHODS

To inform recommendations for augmentation, semi-structured focus group discussions were held (November-December 2021). Health workforce representatives with experience in health care delivery via telehealth across country Western Australia were approached and invited to join a discussion.

RESULTS

Focus group participants included 53 health workforce representatives, with between two and eight participants per discussion. In total, 12 focus groups were conducted: seven were specific to regions, three with staff in centralised roles, and two with a mixture of participants from regional and central roles. Findings identified four key areas for telehealth augmentation: improvements required to existing service practice and processes; equity and access considerations; health workforce-focussed opportunities; and consumer-focussed opportunities.

CONCLUSIONS

Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the rapid increase in health services delivered via telehealth modalities, it is timely to explore opportunities to augment pre-existing models of care. Workforce representatives consulted in this study suggested modifications to existing process and practice that would improve the current models of care, and recommendations on ways to improve clinician and consumer experiences with telehealth. Improving experiences with virtual delivery of health care is likely to support continued use and acceptance of this modality in health care delivery.

Dutch Nationwide Implementation Program for familial hypercholesterolemia case finding in children: a cost-effectiveness and return on investment analysis

Background

The Netherlands is one of the few countries in the world that actively screen for familial hypercholesterolemia (FH).

Objectives

We investigated the return on investment (ROI) and cost-effectiveness of the Dutch nationwide implementation program for FH case-finding and preventive treatment in children compared to later detection and treatment from both a societal and healthcare perspective in the Netherlands.

Methods

Cascade case finding and early preventive treatment were modelled to simulate the progression of disease and costs of ten-year-olds suspected of having heterozygous FH (HeFH) over a lifetime. The model consisted of three health states: alive without coronary heart disease (CHD), alive with CHD, and dead. The decision was to compare the nationwide implementation program for FH cascade case-finding in children and immediate treatment with statins compared to “usual care” later detection and treatment. The prevalence of HeFH in this target population was 51.2% as per the Dutch Health Program for FH case-finding, and the sensitivity and specificity of testing was 100%. Contemporary Mendelian Randomisation Analysis data was used to quantify the risk of a first coronary heart disease event as a function of age and total lifetime exposure to low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol. Costs and outcome were sourced from the Dutch data and other published sources. ROI for the Dutch nationwide implementation program for FH case-finding and cost-effectiveness analyses using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) (cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained), compared with current usual care were the main outcomes of interest. All future benefits and costs were discounted annually by 1.5% and 4% respectively.

Results

Over the lifetime horizon, the ROI for the Dutch nationwide implementation program for FH case-finding was €16.52 (i.e. every euro spent on the program resulted in a return of €16.52). From the societal perspective, the Dutch nationwide implementation program for FH case-finding and early treatment with statins was the dominant strategy (health improvement and cost saving) compared to usual care. From a healthcare perspective, the Dutch nationwide implementation program for FH case-finding and early treatment with statins would gain 2.64 QALYs per person, at an additional cost of €7,178 (both discounted). These equated to an ICER of €2,668 per QALY gained.

Conclusions

From the societal perspective, the the Dutch nationwide implementation program for FH case-finding represented excellent value for investment for Netherlands, being not only health saving but also cost saving form a societal perspective and cost effective from a healthcare perspective.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC).

FINDINGS

In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]).

INTERPRETATION

In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required.

FUNDING

British Journal of Surgery Society.

Pregnancy rates and outcomes in women with cystic fibrosis in the UK: comparisons with the general population before and after the introduction of disease-modifying treatment, 2003-17

OBJECTIVE

To compare pregnancy rates and outcomes for women with cystic fibrosis in the UK with those of the general population and assess the effect of the introduction of disease-modifying treatment.

DESIGN

A population-based longitudinal study, 2003-17.

SETTING

United Kingdom.

POPULATION

Women aged 15-44 years in the UK cystic fibrosis (CF) Registry compared with women in England and Wales.

METHODS

We calculated pregnancy and live-birth rates for the CF population and the general population of England and Wales. For women with CF we compared pregnancy rates before and after ivacaftor was introduced in 2013. We further used CF registry data to assess pregnancy outcomes for mothers with CF, and to assess the relationship between maternal pre-pregnancy lung function and nutritional status and child gestational age.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Pregnancy and live-birth rates and child gestational age.

RESULTS

Of 3831 women with CF, 661 reported 818 pregnancies. Compared with the general population, the pregnancy rate was 3.3 times lower in the CF population (23.5 versus 77.7 per 1000 woman-years); the live-birth rate was 3.5 times lower (17.4 versus 61.4 per 1000 woman-years) with 70% of pregnancies in CF women resulting in live births; termination of pregnancy rates were also lower (9% versus 22%). Pregnancy rates increased post-ivacaftor for eligible women with CF, from 29.7 to 45.7 per 1000 woman-years. There was no association between pre-pregnancy lung function/nutrition status and gestational age.

CONCLUSIONS

Pregnancy rates in women with CF are about one-third of the rates in the general population with favourable outcomes, and increased for eligible women post-ivacaftor.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Pregnancy rates in women with CF are about a third of the rate in England and Wales with 70% live births. Ivacaftor increases the rate.

O-233 Micronized progesterone plus dydrogesterone versus micronized progesterone alone for luteal phase support in frozen-thawed cycles: a prospective cohort study

Study question

Does the addition of oral dydrogesterone to vaginal progesterone as luteal phase support improve pregnancy outcomes during frozen embryo transfer (FET) cycles compared with vaginal progesterone alone?

Summary answer

Luteal phase support with oral dydrogesterone added to vaginal progesterone improves live birth rates and reduces miscarriage rates compared with vaginal progesterone alone.

What is known already

Progesterone is an important hormone that triggers secretory transformation of the endometrium to allow implantation of the embryo. During in vitro fertilization (IVF), exogenous progesterone is administered for luteal phase support. However, there is wide inter-individual variation in absorption of progesterone via the vaginal wall. Oral dydrogesterone is effective and well tolerated when used to provide luteal phase support after fresh embryo transfer. However, there are currently no data on the effectiveness of luteal phase support with the combination of dydrogesterone with vaginal micronized progesterone compared with vaginal micronized progesterone after FET.

Study design, size, duration

Prospective cohort study conducted at an academic infertility center in Vietnam from 26 June 2019 to 30 March 2020.

Participants/materials, setting, methods

We studied 1364 women undergoing IVF with FET. The luteal support regimen was either vaginal micronized progesterone 400 mg twice daily plus oral dydrogesterone 10 mg twice daily (second part of the study) or vaginal micronized progesterone 400 mg twice daily (first 4 months of the study). The primary endpoint was live birth after the first FET of the started cycle, with miscarriage <12 weeks as one of the secondary endpoints.

Main results and the role of chance

The vaginal progesterone + dydrogesterone group and vaginal progesterone groups included 732 and 632 participants, respectively. Live birth rates were 46.3% versus 41.3%, respectively (rate ratio [RR] 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99–1.27, p = 0.06; multivariate analysis RR 1.30 (95% CI 1.01–1.68), p = 0.042), with a statistically significant lower rate of miscarriage at < 12 weeks (3.4% vs 6.6%; RR 0.51, 95% CI 0.32–0.83; p = 0.009). Birth weight of both singletons (2971.0 ± 628.4 vs. 3118.8 ± 559.2 g; p = 0.004) and twins (2175.5 ± 494.8 vs. 2494.2 ± 584.7; p = 0.002) was significantly lower in the progesterone plus dydrogesterone versus progesterone group.

Limitations, reasons for caution

The study were the open-label design and the non-randomized nature of the sequential administration of study treatments. However, our systematic comparison of the two strategies was able to be performed much more rapidly than a conventional randomized controlled trial. In addition, the single ethnicity population limits external generalizability.

Wider implications of the findings

Oral dydrogesterone in addition to vaginal progesterone as luteal phase support in FET cycles can reduce the miscarriage rate and improve the live birth rate. Carefully planned prospective cohort studies with limited bias could be used as an alternative to randomized controlled clinical trials to inform clinical practice.

Trial registration number

NCT03998761

Health economic evaluation of screening and treating children with familial hypercholesterolemia early in life: many happy returns on investment?

Background

There are no studies that have specifically investigated the cost-effectiveness of cascade screening of children for heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) and treatment of affected individuals with statins to prevent coronary heart disease (CHD).

Purpose

This study explores the cost-effectiveness of this strategy from the perspective of the Australian public healthcare system.

Methods

A lifetime Markov model with four health states (Alive without CHD, Alive with CHD, Dead from fatal CHD, and Dead from other causes) was developed to simulate the progression of ten- year-old children screened for FH and treated immediately with statins if found to have FH. The underlying prevalence of FH in this target population was assumed to be 56.8%, and the sensitivity and specificity of testing was 100%. The comparator was usual care, which assumed that subjects started statins spontaneously at a later point or when they experienced a cardiovascular event. The effect of reducing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) on the risk of a first event at each age assumed that risk was proportional to total lifetime exposure and was implemented using Mendelian randomisation analysis data. Cost and other outcome data were sourced from published sources. Outcome of interests were costs in Australian dollars (AUD), life years gained (LYG) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of costs per LYG and per QALY gained. All future costs and outcomes were discounted by 5% annually.

Results

Undiscounted results showed that compared with usual care, cascade screening of ten year-old children for FH and initiation of treatment of affected individuals saved 7.77 LYG and 7.53 QALYs per person over a lifetime. With 5% annual discounting, there were 0.97 LYG and 1.07 QALYs gained per person, at an additional cost of $3,244. These equated to ICERs of $3334 per LYG and $3023 per QALY gained. The equivalent ICERs in USD would be $5089 per LYG gained and $4615 per QALY gained. Sensitivity analysis showed the results to be robust.

Conclusions

Compared to usual care, cascade screening of ten year old children for FH and treating affected individuals is likely to be highly cost-effective.

Table 1. Granular cost and benefit data

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Enhanced Dispersion and Mechanical Behavior of Polypropylene Composites Compounded Using Extension-Dominated Extrusion

The process of dispersing filler in polymer matrix is vital to the behavior of polymer composites. The current study involves understanding the extent of dispersion of filler by only varying the nature of mixing during the process. Identical polymer composite materials are processed via two different kinds of mixing sections on the screw in a twin-screw extruder, differing in the type and amount of stress they impose on the filler agglomerate. An aggressive (900) Kneading Block (KB) mixing section is compared with recently developed Extensional Mixing Elements (EMEs), which impart extension dominated mixing while KB imparts shear dominated mixing. Various EME geometries of different levels of aggressiveness were computationally studied and validated. Composites obtained from KB are compared with composites processed using five different EME geometries. Three composites of Polypropylene (PP) filled with carbon black, graphene nano platelets and carbon nanotubes were studied independently. Composites processed through EMEs display about an order of magnitude better dispersion of filler agglomerate over the composites processed through KB. In addition, enhanced modulus and yield stress is observed for composites processed through EMEs. An improvement of 63% to 266% in the strain achieved for EME processed composites is seen under biaxial film stretching.

Does this lung nodule need urgent review? A discrete choice experiment of Australian general practitioners

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer mortality in Australia. Guidelines suggest that patients with suspected lung cancer on thoracic imaging be referred for urgent specialist review. However, the term "suspected" is broad and includes the common finding of lung nodules, which often require periodic surveillance rather than urgent invasive investigation. The British Thoracic Society recommends that a lung nodule with a PanCan risk > 10% be considered for invasive investigation. This study aimed to assess which factors influence general practitioners (GPs) to request urgent review for a lung nodule and if these factors concur with PanCan risk prediction model variables.

METHODS

A discrete choice experiment was developed that produced 32 individual case vignettes. Each vignette contained eight variables, four of which form the parsimonious PanCan risk prediction model. Two additional vignettes were created that addressed haemoptysis with a normal chest computed tomography (CT) scan and isolated mediastinal lymphadenopathy. The survey was distributed to 4160 randomly selected Australian GPs and they were asked if the patients in the vignettes required urgent (less than two weeks) specialist review. Multivariate logistic regression identified factors associated with request for urgent review.

RESULTS

Completed surveys were received from 3.7% of participants, providing 152 surveys (1216 case vignettes) for analysis. The factors associated with request for urgent review were nodule spiculation (adj-OR 5.57, 95% CI 3.88-7.99, p < 0.0001), larger nodule size, presentation with haemoptysis (adj-OR 4.79, 95% CI 3.05-7.52, p < 0.0001) or weight loss (adj-OR 4.87, 95% CI 3.13-7.59, p < 0.0001), recommendation for urgent review by the reporting radiologist (adj-OR 4.68, 95% CI 2.86-7.65, p < 0.0001) and female GP gender (adj-OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.36-2.56, p 0.0001). In low risk lung nodules (PanCan risk < 10%), there was significant variability in perceived sense of urgency. Most GPs (83%) felt that a patient with haemoptysis and a normal chest CT scan did not require urgent specialist review but that a patient with isolated mediastinal lymphadenopathy did (75%).

CONCLUSION

Future lung cancer investigation pathways may benefit from the addition of a risk prediction model to reduce variations in referral behavior for low risk lung nodules.

Short duration of untreated psychosis enhances negative symptom remission in extended early intervention service for psychosis

OBJECTIVE

To test whether duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) < 3 months, recommended by the World Health Organization/International Early Psychosis Association, enhances the effects of an extended early intervention service (EEIS) on symptom remission.

METHOD

We examined data from a randomized controlled trial in which patients who received 2 years of treatment in EIS for psychosis were subsequently randomized to either 3 years of EEIS or 3 years of regular care (RC). Using a DUP cut-off ≤ 12 weeks (approximately < 3 months), patients were split into two groups. Length of positive, negative and total symptom remission were the outcomes.

RESULTS

Patients (N = 217) were mostly male (68%) with schizophrenia spectrum disorder (65%); 108 (50%) received EEIS (58 had DUP ≤12 weeks; 50 had DUP >12 weeks). Interaction between treatment condition (EEIS vs. RC) and DUP cut-off ≤ 12 weeks was only significant in multiple linear regression model examining length of negative symptom remission as the outcome (adjusted β = 36.88 [SE = 15.88], t = 2.32, P = 0.02). EEIS patients with DUP ≤12 weeks achieved 25 more weeks of negative symptom remission than EEIS patients with DUP >12 weeks.

CONCLUSION

Having a short DUP may be critical in deriving long-term benefits from EIS for psychosis, including EEIS settings. This work empirically supports policy recommendations of reducing DUP <3 months.

The Future Excess Fraction of Cancer Attributable to High Body Mass Index in Australia

Background: High body mass index (BMI > 25 kg/m2) has been found to be associated with an increased risk of many cancers, including cancers of the colon and rectum, liver, and pancreas. Aim: This study aimed to estimate the future burden of cancer resulting from current levels of overweight and obesity in Australia. Methods: The future excess fraction method was used to estimate the future burden of cancer among the proportion of the Australian adult population who were overweight or obese in 2016. Calculations were conducted for 13 cancer types, including cancers of the colon, rectum, kidney, and liver. Results: The cohort of 18.7 million adult Australians in 2016 will develop ∼7.6 million cancers over their lifetime. Of these, ∼402,500 cancers (5.3%) will be attributable to current levels of overweight and obese. The majority of these will be postmenopausal breast cancers (n = 72,300), kidney cancers (n = 59,200), and colon cancers (n = 55,100). More than a quarter of future endometrial cancers (30.3%) and esophageal adenocarcinomas (35.8%) will be attributable to high body mass index. Conclusion: A significant proportion of future cancers will result from current levels of high body mass index. Our estimates are not directly comparable to past estimates of the burden from overweight and obesity because they describe different quantities - future cancers in currently exposed vs current cancers due to past exposures. The results of this study provide us with relevant up-to-date information about how many cancers in Australia could be prevented.

A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score Predicts Progression of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes in Individuals at Risk

OBJECTIVE

We tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables.

RESULTS

Higher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; P = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; P = 0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

The T1D GRS independently predicts progression to T1D and improves prediction along T1D stages in autoantibody-positive relatives.

QLU-C10D: a health state classification system for a multi-attribute utility measure based on the EORTC QLQ-C30

PURPOSE

To derive a health state classification system (HSCS) from the cancer-specific quality of life questionnaire, the EORTC QLQ-C30, as the basis for a multi-attribute utility instrument.

METHODS

The conceptual model for the HSCS was based on the established domain structure of the QLQ-C30. Several criteria were considered to select a subset of dimensions and items for the HSCS. Expert opinion and patient input informed a priori selection of key dimensions. Psychometric criteria were assessed via secondary analysis of a pooled dataset comprising HRQOL and clinical data from 2616 patients from eight countries and a range of primary cancer sites, disease stages, and treatments. We used confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to assess the conceptual model's robustness and generalisability. We assessed item floor effects (>75 % observations at lowest score), disordered item response thresholds, coverage of the latent variable and differential item function using Rasch analysis. We calculated effect sizes for known group comparisons based on disease stage and responsiveness to change. Seventy-nine cancer patients assessed the relative importance of items within dimensions.

RESULTS

CFA supported the conceptual model and its generalisability across primary cancer sites. After considering all criteria, 12 items were selected representing 10 dimensions: physical functioning (mobility), role functioning, social functioning, emotional functioning, pain, fatigue, sleep, appetite, nausea, bowel problems.

CONCLUSIONS

The HSCS created from QLQ-C30 items is known as the EORTC Quality of Life Utility Measure-Core 10 dimensions (QLU-C10D). The next phase of the QLU-C10D's development involves valuation studies, currently planned or being conducted across the globe.

Using a discrete choice experiment to value the QLU-C10D: feasibility and sensitivity to presentation format

PURPOSE

To assess the feasibility of using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to value health states within the QLU-C10D, a utility instrument derived from the QLQ-C30, and to assess clarity, difficulty, and respondent preference between two presentation formats.

METHODS

We ran a DCE valuation task in an online panel (N = 430). Respondents answered 16 choice pairs; in half of these, differences between dimensions were highlighted, and in the remainder, common dimensions were described in text and differing attributes were tabulated. To simplify the cognitive task, only four of the QLU-C10D's ten dimensions differed per choice set. We assessed difficulty and clarity of the valuation task with Likert-type scales, and respondents were asked which format they preferred. We analysed the DCE data by format with a conditional logit model and used Chi-squared tests to compare other responses by format. Semi-structured telephone interviews (N = 8) explored respondents' cognitive approaches to the valuation task.

RESULTS

Four hundred and forty-nine individuals were recruited, 430 completed at least one choice set, and 422/449 (94 %) completed all 16 choice sets. Interviews revealed that respondents found ten domains difficult but manageable, many adopting simplifying heuristics. Results for clarity and difficulty were identical between formats, but the "highlight" format was preferred by 68 % of respondents. Conditional logit parameter estimates were monotonic within domains, suggesting respondents were able to complete the DCE sensibly, yielding valid results.

CONCLUSION

A DCE valuation task in which only four of the QLU-C10D's ten dimensions differed in any choice set is feasible for deriving utility weights for the QLU-C10D.

Can hospital-based doctors change their working hours? Evidence from Australia

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To explore factors predicting hospital-based doctors' desire to work less, and then their success in making that change.

METHODS

Consecutive waves of an Australian longitudinal survey of doctors (Medicine in Australia-Balancing Employment and Life). There were 6285 and 6337 hospital-based completers in the two waves, consisting of specialists, hospital-based non-specialists and specialist registrars.

RESULTS

Forty-eight per cent stated a preference to reduce hours. Predictive characteristics were being female and working more than 40 h/week (both P < 0.01). An inverted U-shape relationship was observed for age, with younger and older doctors less likely to state the preference. Factors associated with not wanting to reduce working hours were being in excellent health and being satisfied with work (both P < 0.01). Of those who wanted to reduce working hours, only 32% successfully managed to do so in the subsequent year (defined by a reduction of at least 5 h/week). Predictors of successfully reducing hours were being older, female and working more than 40 h/week (all P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Several factors predict the desire of hospital-based doctors to reduce hours and then their subsequent success in doing so. Designing policies that seek to reduce attrition may alleviate some of the ongoing pressures in the Australian hospital system.

Global variation in the prevalence and incidence of major depressive disorder: a systematic review of the epidemiological literature

BACKGROUND

Summarizing the epidemiology of major depressive disorder (MDD) at a global level is complicated by significant heterogeneity in the data. The aim of this study is to present a global summary of the prevalence and incidence of MDD, accounting for sources of bias, and dealing with heterogeneity. Findings are informing MDD burden quantification in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 Study.

METHOD

A systematic review of prevalence and incidence of MDD was undertaken. Electronic databases Medline, PsycINFO and EMBASE were searched. Community-representative studies adhering to suitable diagnostic nomenclature were included. A meta-regression was conducted to explore sources of heterogeneity in prevalence and guide the stratification of data in a meta-analysis.

RESULTS

The literature search identified 116 prevalence and four incidence studies. Prevalence period, sex, year of study, depression subtype, survey instrument, age and region were significant determinants of prevalence, explaining 57.7% of the variability between studies. The global point prevalence of MDD, adjusting for methodological differences, was 4.7% (4.4-5.0%). The pooled annual incidence was 3.0% (2.4-3.8%), clearly at odds with the pooled prevalence estimates and the previously reported average duration of 30 weeks for an episode of MDD.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide a comprehensive and up-to-date profile of the prevalence of MDD globally. Region and study methodology influenced the prevalence of MDD. This needs to be considered in the GBD 2010 study and in investigations into the ecological determinants of MDD. Good-quality estimates from low-/middle-income countries were sparse. More accurate data on incidence are also required.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs).

METHODS

Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis.

FINDINGS

Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350,000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Rates of YLDs per 100,000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time.

METHODS

We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions.

INTERPRETATION

Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time.

METHODS

We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania.

INTERPRETATION

Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Common values in assessing health outcomes from disease and injury: disability weights measurement study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Measurement of the global burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weights that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. There has been extensive debate about a range of conceptual and methodological issues concerning the definition and measurement of these weights. Our primary objective was a comprehensive re-estimation of disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 through a large-scale empirical investigation in which judgments about health losses associated with many causes of disease and injury were elicited from the general public in diverse communities through a new, standardised approach.

METHODS

We surveyed respondents in two ways: household surveys of adults aged 18 years or older (face-to-face interviews in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Peru, and Tanzania; telephone interviews in the USA) between Oct 28, 2009, and June 23, 2010; and an open-access web-based survey between July 26, 2010, and May 16, 2011. The surveys used paired comparison questions, in which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different, randomly selected health states and indicated which person they regarded as healthier. The web survey added questions about population health equivalence, which compared the overall health benefits of different life-saving or disease-prevention programmes. We analysed paired comparison responses with probit regression analysis on all 220 unique states in the study. We used results from the population health equivalence responses to anchor the results from the paired comparisons on the disability weight scale from 0 (implying no loss of health) to 1 (implying a health loss equivalent to death). Additionally, we compared new disability weights with those used in WHO's most recent update of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 2004.

FINDINGS

13,902 individuals participated in household surveys and 16,328 in the web survey. Analysis of paired comparison responses indicated a high degree of consistency across surveys: correlations between individual survey results and results from analysis of the pooled dataset were 0·9 or higher in all surveys except in Bangladesh (r=0·75). Most of the 220 disability weights were located on the mild end of the severity scale, with 58 (26%) having weights below 0·05. Five (11%) states had weights below 0·01, such as mild anaemia, mild hearing or vision loss, and secondary infertility. The health states with the highest disability weights were acute schizophrenia (0·76) and severe multiple sclerosis (0·71). We identified a broad pattern of agreement between the old and new weights (r=0·70), particularly in the moderate-to-severe range. However, in the mild range below 0·2, many states had significantly lower weights in our study than previously.

INTERPRETATION

This study represents the most extensive empirical effort as yet to measure disability weights. By contrast with the popular hypothesis that disability assessments vary widely across samples with different cultural environments, we have reported strong evidence of highly consistent results.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Health states for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder within the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study

A comprehensive revision of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is expected to be completed in 2012. This study utilizes a broad range of improved methods for assessing burden, including closer attention to empirically derived estimates of disability. The aim of this paper is to describe how GBD health states were derived for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. These will be used in deriving health state-specific disability estimates. A literature review was first conducted to settle on a parsimonious set of health states for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. A second review was conducted to investigate the proportion of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder cases experiencing these health states. These were pooled using a quality-effects model to estimate the overall proportion of cases in each state. The two schizophrenia health states were acute (predominantly positive symptoms) and residual (predominantly negative symptoms). The three bipolar disorder health states were depressive, manic, and residual. Based on estimates from six studies, 63% (38%-82%) of schizophrenia cases were in an acute state and 37% (18%-62%) were in a residual state. Another six studies were identified from which 23% (10%-39%) of bipolar disorder cases were in a manic state, 27% (11%-47%) were in a depressive state, and 50% (30%-70%) were in a residual state. This literature review revealed salient gaps in the literature that need to be addressed in future research. The pooled estimates are indicative only and more data are required to generate more definitive estimates. That said, rather than deriving burden estimates that fail to capture the changes in disability within schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, the derived proportions and their wide uncertainty intervals will be used in deriving disability estimates.

Preferences for cancer treatments: an overview of methods and applications in oncology

This review provides cancer clinicians and researchers with an overview of methods for assessing preferences, with examples and recommendations for their application in oncology. Decisions about cancer treatments involve trade-offs between their relative benefits and harms. An individual's preference for a cancer treatment reflects their evaluation of the relative benefits and harms in comparison with a given alternative or alternatives. Methods of preference assessment include the ranking or rating scale, standard gamble (SG), time trade-off (TTO), visual analogue scale, discrete choice experiment (DCE), and multi-attribute utility instrument (MAUI). The choice of method depends on the purpose of preference assessment; the ranking or rating scale, SG, TTO, and DCEs are best suited to clinical decisions, whereas MAUIs are best suited to health policy decisions. Knowledge of patients' preferences for cancer treatments can better inform clinical decisions about patient management by enabling the tailoring of decisions to individual patients' values, attitudes, and priorities and health policy decisions through economic evaluations of cancer treatments and their suitability for coverage by health payers.

Osteoporosis and fragility fractures

The prevalence of osteoporosis is expected to increase with the ageing of the world's population. This article reviews the epidemiology, risk factors and health burden of osteoporosis. In the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2005, osteoporosis is studied as a risk factor for fracture by considering the bone-mineral-density (BMD) measurement as the continuous exposure variable. We have performed a systematic review seeking population-based studies with BMD data measured by dual-X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). The femoral neck was selected as the unique location and all values were converted into Hologic(®) to enable inclusion of worldwide data for analysis. Provisional results on mean BMD values for different world regions are shown in age breakdowns for males and females 50 years or over, as well as mean T-scores using the young, white, female reference of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III. Results show remarkable geographical differences and a time trend towards improvement of the BMD values in Asian and European populations.

Review of the long-term disability associated with hip fractures

OBJECTIVES

To determine the proportion of hip fracture patients who experience long-term disability and to re-estimate the resulting burden of disease associated with hip fractures in Australia in 2003.

METHODS

A literature review of the functional outcome following a hip fracture (keywords: morbidity, treatment outcome, disability, quality of life, recovery of function, hip fractures, and femoral neck fractures) was carried out using PubMed and Ovid MEDLINE.

RESULTS

A range of scales and outcome measures are used to evaluate recovery following a hip fracture. Based on the available evidence on restrictions in activities of daily living, 29% of hip fracture cases in the elderly do not reach their pre-fracture levels 1 year post-fracture. Those who do recover tend to reach their pre-fracture levels of functioning at around 6 months. These new assumptions result in 8251 years lived with disability for hip fractures in Australia in 2003, a 4.5-fold increase compared with the previous calculation based on Global Burden of Disease assumptions that only 5% of hip fractures lead to long-term disability and that the duration of short-term disability is just 51 days.

CONCLUSIONS

The original assumptions used in burden of disease studies grossly underestimate the long-term disability from hip fractures. The long-term consequences of other injuries may similarly have been underestimated and need to be re-examined. This has important implications for modelling the cost-effectiveness of preventive interventions where disability-adjusted life years are used as a measure of health outcome.

FC27-01 - Youth matters in London: Mental health, addiction and homelessness

This project will work closely with existing service partners involved in street level services and focus on testing and evaluating three approaches for street level interventions for youth who are homeless and who have severe or moderate mentally illness. Youth will be asked to choose their preferred service approach:

Housing First related initiatives focused on interventions designed to move youth to appropriate and available housing and ongoing housing supports.

Treatment First initiatives to provide Mental Health/Addiction supports and treatment solutions, and; Simultaneous attention to both Housing and Treatment Together

Our primary objective is to understand the service delivery preferences of homeless youth and understand the outcomes of these choices. Our research questions include:1.

Focus groups with staff and family members will occur to assist in understanding the nature of each of service approach, changes that evolve within services, & facilitators and barriers to service delivery. This work will be important in determining which approach is chosen by youth and why. Evaluating the outcomes with each choice will provide valuable information about outcomes for the service options chosen by youth. This assist in better identifying weaknesses in the services offered and inform further development of treatment options that youth will accept.

Interpersonal violence: an important risk factor for disease and injury in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Burden of disease estimates for South Africa have highlighted the particularly high rates of injuries related to interpersonal violence compared with other regions of the world, but these figures tell only part of the story. In addition to direct physical injury, violence survivors are at an increased risk of a wide range of psychological and behavioral problems. This study aimed to comprehensively quantify the excess disease burden attributable to exposure to interpersonal violence as a risk factor for disease and injury in South Africa.

METHODS

The World Health Organization framework of interpersonal violence was adapted. Physical injury mortality and disability were categorically attributed to interpersonal violence. In addition, exposure to child sexual abuse and intimate partner violence, subcategories of interpersonal violence, were treated as risk factors for disease and injury using counterfactual estimation and comparative risk assessment methods. Adjustments were made to account for the combined exposure state of having experienced both child sexual abuse and intimate partner violence.

RESULTS

Of the 17 risk factors included in the South African Comparative Risk Assessment study, interpersonal violence was the second leading cause of healthy years of life lost, after unsafe sex, accounting for 1.7 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) or 10.5% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval: 8.5%-12.5%) in 2000. In women, intimate partner violence accounted for 50% and child sexual abuse for 32% of the total attributable DALYs.

CONCLUSIONS

The implications of our findings are that estimates that include only the direct injury burden seriously underrepresent the full health impact of interpersonal violence. Violence is an important direct and indirect cause of health loss and should be recognized as a priority health problem as well as a human rights and social issue. This study highlights the difficulties in measuring the disease burden from interpersonal violence as a risk factor and the need to improve the epidemiological data on the prevalence and risks for the different forms of interpersonal violence to complete the picture. Given the extent of the burden, it is essential that innovative research be supported to identify social policy and other interventions that address both the individual and societal aspects of violence.

Ethnic diversity and pathways to care for a first episode of psychosis in Ontario

OBJECTIVE

To examine ethnic variations in the pathways to care for persons accessing early intervention (EI) services in Ontario.

METHOD

The pathways to care and the duration of untreated psychosis were assessed for first-episode psychosis patients who entered specialized EI services in Ontario. The sample was assigned to the following ethnic classifications: the White (Caucasian), Black (African descent), and Asian (ancestry from the continent) groups, plus all the "other ethnicities" group.

RESULTS

There were 200 participants: 78% were male; 61% from the White, 15% Black, 13% Asian, and 11% were from the other ethnicities group. At the first point of contact, more participants used nonmedical contacts (12%), such as clergy and naturopathic healers, than psychologists (8%) or psychiatrists (7%). There were no ethnic differences for duration of untreated psychosis (median 22 weeks) or for initiation of help seeking by family/friends (53%), police (15%), or self (33%). After adjusting for relevant clinical and demographic factors, the Asian and other ethnicities groups were 4 and 3 times (respectively) more likely than the White or Black groups (P = .017) to use emergency room services as the first point of contact in the pathways to care. Participants from the Asian group experienced less involuntary hospitalizations (P = .023) than all the other groups. Yet overall, there were many more similarities than significant differences in the pathways to care.

CONCLUSION

EI services should monitor the pathways to care for young people of diverse ethnic backgrounds to address any disparities in accessing care.