Projected Growth in FDA-Approved Artificial Intelligence Products Given Venture Capital Funding

PURPOSE

Medical imaging accounts for 85% of digital health's venture capital funding. As funding grows, it is expected that artificial intelligence (AI) products will increase commensurately. The study's objective is to project the number of new AI products given the statistical association between historical funding and FDA-approved AI products.

METHODS

The study used data from the ACR Data Science Institute and for the number of FDA-approved AI products (2008-2022) and data from Rock Health for AI funding (2013-2022). Employing a 6-year lag between funding and product approved, we used linear regression to estimate the association between new products approved in a certain year, based on the lagged funding (ie, product-year funding). Using this statistical relationship, we forecasted the number of new FDA-approved products.

RESULTS

The results show that there are 11.33 (95% confidence interval: 7.03-15.64) new AI products for every $1 billion in funding assuming a 6-year lag between funding and product approval. In 2022 there were 69 new FDA-approved products associated with $4.8 billion in funding. In 2035, product-year funding is projected to reach $30.8 billion, resulting in 350 new products that year.

CONCLUSIONS

FDA-approved AI products are expected to grow from 69 in 2022 to 350 in 2035 given the expected funding growth in the coming years. AI is likely to change the practice of diagnostic radiology as new products are developed and integrated into practice. As more AI products are integrated, it may incentivize increased investment for future AI products.

Financial Viability of the No Surprises Act Independent Dispute Resolution Process: Radiology and Other Hospital-Based Specialties

BACKGROUND. The federal No Surprises Act (NSA), designed to eliminate surprise medical billing for out-of-network (OON) care for circumstances beyond patients' control, established the independent dispute resolution (IDR) process to settle clinician-payer payment disputes for OON care. OBJECTIVE. The purpose of our study was to assess the fraction of OON claims for which radiologists and other hospital-based specialists can expect to at least break even when challenging payer-determined payments through the NSA IDR process, as a measure of the process's financial viability. METHODS. This retrospective study extracted claims from a national commercial database (Optum's deidentified Clinformatics Data Mart) for hospital-based specialties occurring on the same day as in-network emergency department (ED) visits or inpatient stays from January 2017 to December 2021. OON claims were identified. OON claims batching was simulated using IDR rules. Maximum potential recovered payments from the IDR process were estimated as the difference between the charges and the allowed amount. The percentages of claims for which the maximum potential payment and one-quarter of this amount (a more realistic payment recovery estimate) would exceed IDR fees were determined, using US$150 and US$450 fee thresholds to approximate the range of final 2024 IDR fees. These values represented the percentage of OON claims that would be financially viable candidates for IDR submission. RESULTS. Among 76,221,264 claims for hospital-based specialties associated with in-network ED visits or inpatient stays, 1,482,973 (1.9%) were OON. The maximum potential payment exceeded fee thresholds of US$150 and US$450 for 55.0% and 32.1%, respectively, of batched OON claims for radiologists and 76.8% and 61.3% of batched OON claims for all other hospital-based specialties combined. At payment of one-quarter of that amount, these values were 26.9% and 10.6%, respectively, for radiologists and 56.6% and 38.4% for all other hospital-based specialties combined. CONCLUSION. The IDR process would be financially unviable for a substantial fraction of OON claims for hospital-based specialists (more so for radiology than for other such specialties). CLINICAL IMPACT. Although the NSA enacted important patient protections, IDR fees limit clinicians' opportunities to dispute payer-determined payments and potentially undermine their bargaining power in contract negotiations. Therefore, IDR rulemaking may negatively impact patient access to in-network care.

A Claims-Based Method for Identification and Characterization of Practicing Interventional Radiologists

PURPOSE

To propose a research method for identifying "practicing interventional radiologists" using 2 national claims data sets.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The 2015-2019 100% Medicare Part B data and 2015-2019 private insurance claims from Optum's Clinformatics Data Mart (CDM) database were used to rank-order radiologists' interventional radiology (IR)-related work as a percentage of total billed work relative value units (RVUs). Characteristics were analyzed at various threshold percentages. External validation used Medicare self-designated specialty with Society of Interventional Radiology (SIR) membership records; Youden index evaluated sensitivity and specificity. Multivariate logistic regression assessed practicing IR characteristics.

RESULTS

In the Medicare data, above a 10% IR-related work threshold, only 23.8% of selected practicing interventional radiologists were designated as interventional radiologists; above 50% and 90% thresholds, this percentage increased to 42.0% and 47.5%, respectively. The mean percentage of IR-related work among practicing interventional radiologists was 45%, 84%, and 96% of total work RVUs for the 10%, 50%, and 90% thresholds, respectively. At these thresholds, the CDM practicing interventional radiologists included 21.2%, 35.2%, and 38.4% designated interventional radiologists, and evaluation and management services comprised relatively more total work RVUs. Practicing interventional radiologists were more likely to be males, metropolitan, and earlier in their careers than other radiologists at all thresholds.

CONCLUSIONS

Most radiologists performing IR-related work are designated in claims data as diagnostic radiologists, indicating insufficiency of specialty designation for IR identification. The proposed method to identify practicing interventional radiologists by percent IR-related work effort could improve generalizability and comparability across claims-based IR studies.

The Neiman Imaging Comorbidity Index: Development and Validation in a National Commercial Claims Database

OBJECTIVE

To build the Neiman Imaging Comorbidity Index (NICI), based on variables available in claims datasets, which provides good discrimination of an individual's chance of receiving advanced imaging (CT, MR, PET), and thus, utility as a control variable in research.

METHODS

This retrospective study used national commercial claims data from Optum's deidentified Clinformatics Data Mart database from the period January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2019. Individuals with continuous enrollment during this 2-year study period were included. Lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression was used to predict the chance of receiving advanced imaging in 2019 based on the presence of comorbidities in 2018. A numerical index was created in a development cohort (70% of the total dataset) using weights assigned to each comorbidity, based on regression β coefficients. Internal validation of assigned scores was performed in the remaining 30% of claims, with comparison to the commonly used Charlson Comorbidity Index.

RESULTS

The final sample (development and validation cohorts) included 10,532,734 beneficiaries, of whom 2,116,348 (20.1%) received advanced imaging. After model development, the NICI included nine comorbidities. In the internal validation set, the NICI achieved good discrimination of receipt of advanced imaging with a C statistic of 0.709 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.708-0.709), which predicted advanced imaging better than the CCI (C 0.692, 95% CI 0.691-0.692). Controlling for age and sex yielded better discrimination (C 0.748, 95% CI 0.748-0.749).

DISCUSSION

The NICI is an easily calculated measure of comorbidity burden that can be used to adjust for patients' chances of receiving advanced imaging. Future work should explore external validation of the NICI.

Radiologists' Out-of-Network Billing Trends, 2007 to 2021

PURPOSE

Given the financial hardships of surprise billing for patients, the aim of this study was to assess the degree to which radiologists effectively participate in commercial insurance networks by examining the trend in the share of radiologists' imaging claims that are out of network (OON).

METHODS

A retrospective study over a 15-year period (2007-2021) was conducted using claims from Optum's deidentified Clinformatics Data Mart Database to assess the share of radiologists' imaging claims that are OON. Radiologists' annual OON rate was assessed overall as well as for claims associated with inpatient stays and emergency department (ED) visits. Rates were assessed for all imaging studies as well as by modality. Linear regression was conducted to assess OON rate time trends.

RESULTS

From 2007 to 2021, 5,039,142 of radiologists' imaging claims (6.3%) were OON. This rate declined from 12.6% in 2007 to 1.1% in 2021. Over the study period, the OON rate was 5.0% during an inpatient stay and 2.1% on the same day as an ED visit that did not lead to an inpatient admission. The linear trend in the overall OON rate declined 0.74 percentage points annually (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.90 to -0.58 percentage points) over the study period. Likewise, the annual declines were 0.54 percentage points (95% CI, -0.71 to -0.36) and 0.26 percentage points (95% CI, -0.33 to -0.20 percentage points) for imaging claims associated with inpatient stays and ED visits, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Radiologists' imaging claims that are OON has significantly declined from 2007 to a minimal level in 2021. This may indicate effective negotiations between radiologists and commercial payers and new state-level surprise billing laws.

Prevalence of "One-Off Events" in Radiology: Implications for Radiology in Episode-Based Alternative Payment Models

OBJECTIVE

As reimbursement mechanisms become more value-based, there are questions about the applicability of these mechanisms for nonepisodic care, particularly care provided by nonpatient-facing specialists, for example, radiologists. Accordingly, this study examined the prevalence of nonepisodic care-one-off events-in diagnostic radiology.

METHODS

We conducted a multiyear (2015-2019) retrospective study of diagnostic imaging using a large commercial payer database including commercial insurance and Medicare Advantage. Using a 12-month evaluation period starting with the day of the initial imaging study/studies, we categorized imaging studies as one-off events if there were no additional studies (beyond the first day of the evaluation period) for the next 12 months in the same body region. We also evaluated an alternative, more stringent definition of a one-off event: the only imaging study during the 12-month evaluation period. We computed the percentage of one-off events overall and by body region.

RESULTS

We found that one-off events comprised 33.2%-45.8% of imaging studies depending on whether one-off events are defined as the only study in the evaluation period or imaging only on the first day of the evaluation period, respectively. This share varied widely by body region: highest for cardiac (80.9%-87.7%) and lower for chest (26.8%-35.2%). By place-of-service, the proportion was lowest for the inpatient (12.9%-29.1%) and long-term care settings (18.6%-30%).

DISCUSSION

Given the sizeable share of imaging studies categorized as one-off events, much of radiologists' workload falls outside of the framework of episodic measurement tools and value-based payment models.

Sociodemographic Factors and Screening CT Colonography Use Among Medicare Beneficiaries

BACKGROUND. Approximately one-third of the eligible U.S. population have not undergone guideline-compliant colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Guidelines recognize various screening strategies to increase adherence. CMS provides coverage for all recommended screening tests except CT colonography (CTC). OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study was to compare CTC and other CRC screening tests in terms of associations of utilization with income, race and ethnicity, and urbanicity in Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. METHODS. This retrospective study used CMS Research Identifiable Files from January 1, 2011, through December 31, 2020. These files contain claims information for 5% of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. Data were extracted for individuals 45-85 years old, and individuals with high CRC risk were excluded. Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to determine the likelihood of undergoing CRC screening tests (as well as of undergoing diagnostic CTC, a CMS-covered test with similar physical access as screening CTC) as a function of income, race and ethnicity, and urbanicity while controlling for sex, age, Charlson comorbidity index, U.S. census region, screening year, and related conditions and procedures. RESULTS. For 12,273,363 beneficiary years (mean age, 70.5 ± 8.2 [SD] years; 2,436,849 unique beneficiaries: 6,774,837 female beneficiaries, 5,498,526 male beneficiaries), there were 785,103 CRC screenings events, including 645 for screening CTC. Compared with individuals living in communities with per capita income of less than US$25,000, individuals in communities with income of US$100,000 or more had OR for undergoing screening CTC of 5.73, optical colonoscopy (OC) of 1.36, sigmoidoscopy of 1.03, guaiac fecal occult blood test or fecal immunochemical test of 1.50, stool DNA of 1.43, and diagnostic CTC of 2.00. The OR for undergoing screening CTC was 1.00 for Hispanic individuals and 1.08 for non-Hispanic Black individuals compared with non-Hispanic White individuals. Compared with the OR for undergoing screening CTC for residents of metropolitan areas, the OR was 0.51 for residents of micropolitan areas and 0.65 for residents of small or rural areas. CONCLUSION. The association with income was substantially larger for screening CTC than for other CRC screening tests or for diagnostic CTC. CLINICAL IMPACT. Medicare's noncoverage for screening CTC may contribute to lower adherence with CRC screening guidelines for lower-income beneficiaries. Medicare coverage of CTC could reduce income-based disparities for individuals avoiding OC owing to invasiveness, need for anesthesia, or complication risk.

Budget Neutrality and Medicare Physician Fee Schedule Reimbursement Trends for Radiologists, 2005 to 2021

PURPOSE

The Medicare program, by law, must remain budget neutral. Increases in volume or relative value units (RVUs) for individual services necessitate declines in either the conversion factor or assigned RVUs for other services for budget neutrality. This study aimed to assess the contribution of budget neutrality on reimbursement trends per Medicare fee-for-service beneficiary for services provided by radiologists.

METHODS

The study used aggregated 100% of Medicare Part B claims from 2005 to 2021. We computed the percentage change in reimbursement per beneficiary, actual and inflation adjusted, to radiologists. These trends were then adjusted by separately holding constant RVUs per beneficiary and the conversion factor to demonstrate the impact of budget neutrality.

RESULTS

Unadjusted reimbursement to radiologists per beneficiary increased 4.2% between 2005 and 2021, but when adjusted for inflation, it declined 24.9%. Over this period, the conversion factor declined 7.9%. Without this decline, the reimbursement per beneficiary would have been 9 percentage points higher in 2021 compared with actual. RVUs per beneficiary performed by radiologists increased 13.1%. Keeping RVUs per beneficiary at 2005 levels, reimbursement per beneficiary would have been 12.1 percentage points lower than observed in 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

Given budget neutrality, a substantial decline has occurred in inflation-adjusted reimbursement to radiologists per Medicare beneficiary. Decreases due to both inflation and the decline in conversion factor are only partially offset by increased RVUs per beneficiary, meaning more services per patient with less overall pay, an equation likely to heighten access challenges for Medicare beneficiaries and shortages of radiologists.

Trends in Diagnostic Imaging by Nonphysician Practitioners and Associations With Urbanicity and Scope-of-Practice Authority

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to assess the changing share of diagnostic imaging billed by NPPs and how such changes differ by urbanicity within the context of scope-of-practice (SOP) regulations and legislation.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study used patient claims for diagnostic imaging studies spanning 2016-2020 from Optum Clinformatics Datamart datasets. Multivariable modeling determined the odds of patients receiving NPP-interpreted vs physician-interpreted imaging. Imaging rates and trends in proportions of NPP-billed claims were assessed by urbanicity and relative to other factors including SOP, imaging modality, and place of service.

RESULTS

Of all identified imaging claims, 3,348,881 (3.0%) were attributed to NPPs, with the highest rates of NPP interpretations per 10,000 images occurring in rural and small-town areas. From 2016 to 2020, the rate of NPP-billed imaging increased from 257 to 331 claims per 10,000 beneficiaries (P = 0.004), observed across both metropolitan (240 to 315, P = 0.001) and micropolitan (367 to 436, P = 0.020) settings. Although rates in rural and small-town areas rose, the increase was not significant (330 to 392, P = 0.363). Rises in NPP imaging in metropolitan settings occurred in states with moderately restrictive (307 to 358, P = 0.008) and least restrictive (289 to 419, P = 0.004) SOP legislation.

DISCUSSION

Rates of diagnostic imaging interpretation by NPPs are rising. Growth in recent years appears driven by metropolitan areas in states with less restrictive SOP regulations. Future work is necessary to assess the quality of and downstream costs related to increasing NPP-interpreted imaging.

Imaging Utilization Patterns in the Follow-Up of Extremity Soft Tissue Sarcomas in the United States

This study aimed to describe patterns of imaging utilization after resection of extremity soft tissue sarcoma in the United States, assess for potential disparities, and evaluate temporal trends. A retrospective cohort study using a national database of private payer claims data was performed to determine the utilization rate of extremity and chest imaging in a 5-year postoperative follow-up period for patients with extremity soft tissue sarcoma treated between 2007 and 2019. Imaging utilization was assessed according to patient demographics (age, sex, race and ethnicity, and region of residency), calendar year of surgery, and postoperative year. Associations of demographic variables with imaging use were assessed using chi-square tests, trends in imaging use were analyzed using the Cochran-Armitage trend test or linear regression, and associations of postoperative year with imaging use were evaluated with the Pearson Correlation coefficient. A total of 3707 patients were included. Most patients received at least 1 chest (74%) and extremity (53%) imaging examination during their follow-up period. The presence of surveillance imaging was significantly associated with age (P < 0.0001) and region (P = 0.0029). Over the study period, there was an increase in use of extremity MRI (P < 0.05) and ultrasound (P < 0.01) and chest CT (P < 0.0001) and a decrease in use of chest radiographs (P < 0.0001). Imaging use declined over postoperative years (decrease by 85%-92% from year 1-5). In conclusion, the use of surveillance imaging varied according to patient demographics and has increased for extremity MRI and ultrasound and chest CT over the study period.

Urbanicity, Income, and Mammography-Use Disparities Among American Indian Women

INTRODUCTION

Reported breast cancer screening among American Indian women is consistently below that of White women. The last claims-based trends were from 1991 to 2001. This study updates mammography trends for American Indian women and examines the impact of race, urbanicity, and income on long-term mammography use.

METHODS

This was a multi-year (2005-2019), retrospective study of women aged 40-89 years using a 5% sample of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries residing in Arizona, California, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Washington. This study used multivariable logistic regression to examine the impact of urbanicity and income on receiving mammography for American Indian women compared with that for White women. Analyses were conducted in 2022.

RESULTS

Overall, annual age-adjusted mammography use declined from 205 per 1,000 in 2005 to 165 per 1,000 in 2019. The slope of these declines was significantly steeper (difference = -2.41, p<0.001) for White women (-3.06) than for American Indian women (-0.65). Mammography-use odds across all urbanicity categories were less for American Indian women than for White women compared with those of their respective metropolitan counterparts (e.g., rural: 0.96, 95% CI=0.77, 1.20 for American Indian women and 1.47, 99% CI=1.39, 1.57 for White women). Although residing in higher-income communities was not associated with mammography use for American Indian women, it was 31% higher for White women (OR=1.31, 99% CI=1.28, 1.34).

CONCLUSIONS

The disparity in annual age-adjusted mammography use between American Indian and White women narrowed between 2005 and 2019. However, the association of urbanicity and community income on mammography use differs substantially between American Indian and White women. Policies to reduce disparities need to consider these differences.

Comparison of Lung Cancer Screening Eligibility and Use between Commercial, Medicare, and Medicare Advantage Enrollees

OBJECTIVE

Lung cancer screening does not require patient cost-sharing for insured people in the U.S. Little is known about whether other factors associated with patient selection into different insurance plans affect screening rates. We examined screening rates for enrollees in commercial, Medicare Fee-for-Service (FFS), and Medicare Advantage plans.

METHODS

County-level smoking rates from the 2017 County Health Rankings were used to estimate the number of enrollees eligible for lung cancer screening in two large retrospective claims databases covering: a 5% national sample of Medicare FFS enrollees; and 100% sample of enrollees associated with large commercial and Medicare Advantage carriers. Screening rates were estimated using observed claims, stratified by payer, before aggregation into national estimates by payer and demographics. Chi-square tests were used to examine differences in screening rates between payers.

RESULTS

There were 1,077,142 enrollees estimated to be eligible for screening. The overall estimated screening rate for enrollees by payer was 1.75% for commercial plans, 3.37% for Medicare FFS, and 4.56% for Medicare Advantage plans. Screening rates were estimated to be lowest among females (1.55%-4.02%), those aged 75-77 years (0.63%-2.87%), those residing in rural areas (1.88%-3.56%), and those in the West (1.16%-3.65%). Among Medicare FFS enrollees, screening rates by race/ethnicity were non-Hispanic White (3.71%), non-Hispanic Black (2.17%) and Other (1.68%).

CONCLUSIONS

Considerable variation exists in lung cancer screening between different payers and across patient characteristics. Efforts targeting historically vulnerable populations could present opportunities to increase screening.

Patient Cost-Sharing and Utilization of Breast Cancer Diagnostic Imaging by Patients Undergoing Subsequent Testing After a Screening Mammogram

Importance

Out-of-pocket costs (OOPCs) have been largely eliminated for screening mammography. However, patients still face OOPCs when undergoing subsequent diagnostic tests after the initial screening, which represents a potential barrier to those who require follow-up testing after initial testing.

Objective

To examine the association between the degree of patient cost-sharing and the use of diagnostic breast cancer imaging after undergoing a screening mammogram.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study used medical claims from Optum's deidentified Clinformatics Data Mart Database, a commercial claims database derived from a database of administrative health claims for members of large commercial and Medicare Advantage health plans. The large commercially insured cohort included female patients aged 40 years or older with no prior history of breast cancer undergoing a screening mammogram examination. Data were collected from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2017, and analysis was conducted from January 2021 to September 2022.

Exposures

A k-means clustering machine learning algorithm was used to classify patient insurance plans by dominant cost-sharing mechanism. Plan types were then ranked by OOPCs.

Main Outcomes and Measures

A multivariable 2-part hurdle regression model was used to examine the association between patient OOPCs and the number and type of diagnostic breast services undergone by patients observed to undergo subsequent testing.

Results

In our sample, 230 845 women (220 023 [95.3%] aged 40 to 64 years; 16 810 [7.3%] Black, 16 398 [7.1%] Hispanic, and 164 702 [71.3%] White) underwent a screening mammogram in 2016. These patients were covered by 22 828 distinct insurance plans associated with 6 025 741 enrollees and 44 911 473 distinct medical claims. Plans dominated by coinsurance were found to have the lowest mean (SD) OOPCs ($945 [$1456]), followed by balanced plans ($1017 [$1386]), plans dominated by copays ($1020 [$1408]), and plans dominated by deductibles ($1186 [$1522]). Women underwent significantly fewer subsequent breast imaging procedures in dominantly copay (24 [95% CI, 11-37] procedures per 1000 women) and dominantly deductible (16 [95% CI, 5-28] procedures per 1000 women) plans compared with coinsurance plans. Patients from all plan types underwent fewer breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans than patients in the lowest OOPC plan (balanced, 5 [95% CI, 2-12] MRIs per 1000 women; copay, 6 [95% CI, 3-6] MRI per 100 women; deductible, 6 [95% CI, 3-9] MRIs per 1000 women.

Conclusions and Relevance

Despite policies designed to remove financial barriers to access for breast cancer screening, significant financial barriers remain for women at risk of breast cancer.

Relationship between Race and Access to Newer Mammographic Technology in Women with Medicare Insurance

Background Racial disparities in breast cancer mortality have been reported. Mammographic technology has undergone two major technology transitions since 2000: first, the transition from screen-film mammography (SFM) to full-field digital mammography (FFDM) and second, the transition to digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT). Purpose To examine the relationship between use of newer mammographic technology and race in women receiving mammography services. Materials and Methods This was a multiyear (January 2005 to December 2020) retrospective study of women aged 40-89 years with Medicare fee-for-service insurance who underwent mammography. Data were obtained using a 5% research identifiable sample of all Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. Within-institution and comparable-institution use of mammographic technology between Black women or women of other races and White women were assessed with multivariable logistic and linear regression, respectively, adjusted for age, race, Charlson comorbidity index, per capita income, urbanicity, and institutional capability. Results Between 2005 and 2020, there were 4 028 696 institutional mammography claims for women (mean age, 72 years ± 8 [SD]). Within an institution, the odds ratio (OR) of Black women receiving digital mammography rather than SFM in 2005 was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.70, 0.91; P < .001) when compared with White women; these differences remained until 2009. Compared with White women, the use of DBT within an institution was less likely for Black women from 2015 to 2020 (OR, 0.84; 95% CI: 0.81, 0.87; P < .001). Across institutions, there were racial differences in digital mammography use, which followed a U-shaped pattern, and the differences peaked at 3.8 percentage points less for Black compared with White women (95% CI: -6.1, -1.6; P = .001) in 2011 and then decreased to 1.2 percentage points less (95% CI: -2.2, -0.2; P = .02) in 2016. Conclusion In the Medicare population, Black women had less access to new mammographic imaging technology compared with White women for both the transition from screen-film mammography to digital mammography and then for the transition to digital breast tomosynthesis. © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Lee and Lawson in this issue.

Association of State Share of Nonphysician Practitioners With Diagnostic Imaging Ordering Among Emergency Department Visits for Medicare Beneficiaries

IMPORTANCE

The use of nonphysician practitioners (NPPs) in the emergency department (ED) continues to expand, yet little is known about associations between NPPs and ED imaging use.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether the state share of ED visits for which an NPP was the clinician of record is associated with imaging studies ordered, given that state NPP share is associated with state-level NPP scopes of practice.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study compared diagnostic imaging ordering patterns associated with ED visits based on 2005-2020 Medicare claims for a nationally representative 5% sample of fee-for-service beneficiaries. For all 50 states and the District of Columbia, the state NPP share of ED visits by year was used to represent state-specific practice patterns for NPPs and physicians and how those patterns have evolved over time. The analysis controlled for patient demographic characteristics, Charlson Comorbidity Index scores, ED visit severity, year, and principal diagnosis.

EXPOSURES

The share of ED visits in each state in each year (state share) for which an NPP was the evaluation and management clinician.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcomes were the number and modality of imaging studies associated with ED visits. Analyses were by logistic regression and generalized linear model with γ-distribution and log-link function.

RESULTS

Among 16 922 274 ED visits, 60.0% involved women, and patients' mean (SD) age was 70.3 (16.1) years. The share of all ED visits with an NPP as the clinician increased from 6.1% in 2005 to 16.6% in 2020. Compared with no NPPs, the presence of NPPs in the ED was associated with 5.3% (95% CI, 5.1%-5.5%) more imaging studies per ED visit, including a 3.4% (95% CI, 3.2%-3.5%) greater likelihood of any imaging order per ED visit and 2.2% (95% CI, 2.0%-2.3%) more imaging studies ordered per visit involving imaging.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, use of NPPs in the ED was associated with higher imaging use compared with the use of only physicians in the ED. Although expanded use of NPPs in the ED may improve patient access, the costs and radiation exposure associated with more imaging warrants additional study.

Drivers of Ischemic Stroke Hospital Cost Trends Among Older Adults in the United States

PURPOSE

The increased use of neuroimaging and innovations in ischemic stroke (IS) treatment have improved outcomes, but the impact on median hospital costs is not well understood.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted using Medicare 5% claims data for 75,525 consecutive index IS hospitalizations for patients aged ≥65 years from 2012 to 2019 (values in 2019 dollars). IS episode cost was calculated in each year for trend analysis and stratified by cost components, including neuroimaging (CT angiography [CTA], CT perfusion [CTP], MRI, and MR angiography [MRA]), treatment (endovascular thrombectomy [EVT] and/or intravenous thrombolysis), and patient sociodemographic factors. Logistic regression was performed to analyze the drivers of high-cost episodes and median regression to assess drivers of median costs.

RESULTS

The median IS episode cost increased by 4.9% from $9,509 in 2012 to $9,973 in 2019 (P = .0021). Treatment with EVT resulted in the greatest odds of having a high-cost (>$20,000) hospitalization (odds ratio [OR], 71.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 54.62-94.55), as did intravenous thrombolysis treatment (OR, 3.19; 95% CI, 2.90-3.52). Controlling for other factors, neuroimaging with CTA (OR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.58-1.87), CTP (OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.14-1.52), and/or MRA (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.15-1.38) had greater odds of having high-cost episodes than those without CTA, CTP, and MRA. Length of stay > 4 days (OR, 4.34; 95% CI, 3.99-4.72) and in-hospital mortality (OR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.63-2.10) were also associated with high-cost episodes.

CONCLUSIONS

From 2012 to 2019, the median IS episode cost increased by 4.9%, with EVT as the main cost driver. However, the increasing treatment cost trends have been partially offset by decreases in median length of stay and in-hospital mortality.

Evolving Radiology Trainee Neuroimaging Workloads: A National Medicare Claims-based Analysis

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

While radiology training programs aim to prepare trainees for clinical practice, the relationship between trainee, and national radiology workforce demands is unclear. This study assesses changing radiology trainee neuroimaging workloads nationwide for neuroimaging studies.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using aggregate Medicare claims files from 2002 to 2018, we identified all computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance (MR) examinations of the brain, head and neck, and spine (hereafter "neuroimaging") in Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries nationwide. Using separate Medicare files, we calculated population utilization rates, and work relative value unit (wRVU) weights of all diagnostic neuroradiology services. Using claims modifiers, we identified services rendered by radiology trainees. Using separate national trainee enrollment files, we calculated mean annual per trainee wRVUs.

RESULTS

Between 2002 and 2018, total Medicare neuroimaging claims increased for both radiologists overall (86.1%) and trainees (162.5%), including increases in both CT (102.9% vs 196.8%), and MR (59.9% vs 106.6%). The national percentage of all radiologist neuroimaging wRVUs rendered by trainees increased 46.1% (3.8% of all wRVUs nationally in 2002 to 5.6% in 2018). National trainee increases were present across all neuroimaging services but greatest for head and neck CT (+86.5%). Mean annual per radiology trainee neuroimaging Medicare wRVUs increased +174.9% (42.1 per trainee in 2002 to 115.70 in 2018). Mean per trainee wRVU increases were greatest for spine CT (+394.2%) but present across all neuroimaging services.

CONCLUSION

As neuroimaging utilization in Medicare beneficiaries has grown, radiology trainee neuroimaging workloads have increased disproportionately.

Comparison of Radiologists and Other Specialists in the Performance of Lumbar Puncture Procedures Over Time

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Lumbar punctures may be performed by many different types of health care providers. We evaluated the percentages of lumbar punctures performed by radiologists-versus-nonradiologist providers, including changes with time and discrepancies between specialties.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Lumbar puncture procedure claims were identified in a 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries from 2004 to 2017 and classified by provider specialty, site of service, day of week, and patient complexity. Compound annual growth rates for 2004 versus 2017 were calculated; t test and χ² statistical analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Lumbar puncture use increased from 163.3 to 203.4 procedures per 100,000 Medicare beneficiaries from 2004 to 2017 (overall rate, 190.3). Concurrently, the percentage of lumbar punctures performed by radiologists increased from 37.1% to 54.0%, while proportions performed by other major physician specialty groups either declined (eg, neurologists from 23.5% to 10.0%) or were largely unchanged. While radiologists saw the largest absolute increase in the percentage of procedures, the largest relative increase occurred for nonphysician providers (4.2% in 2004 to 7.5% in 2017; +78.6%). In 2017, radiologists performed most procedures on weekdays (56.2%) and a plurality on weekends (38.2%). Comorbidity was slightly higher in patients undergoing lumbar puncture by radiologists (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Radiologists now perform most lumbar puncture procedures for Medicare beneficiaries in both the inpatient and outpatient settings. The continuing shift in lumbar puncture responsibility from other specialists to radiologists has implications for clinical workflows, cost, radiation exposure, and postgraduate training.

Identifying characteristics of high-poverty counties in the United States with high well-being: an observational cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To identify county characteristics associated with high versus low well-being among high-poverty counties.

DESIGN

Observational cross-sectional study at the county level to investigate the associations of 29 county characteristics with the odds of a high-poverty county reporting population well-being in the top quintile versus the bottom quintile of well-being in the USA. County characteristics representing key determinants of health were drawn from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation County Health Rankings and Roadmaps population health model.

SETTING

Counties in the USA that are in the highest quartile of poverty rate.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Gallup-Sharecare Well-being Index, a comprehensive population-level measure of physical, mental and social health. Counties were classified as having a well-being index score in the top or bottom 20% of all counties in the USA.

RESULTS

Among 770 high-poverty counties, 72 were categorised as having high well-being and 311 as having low well-being. The high-well-being counties had a mean well-being score of 71.8 with a SD of 2.3, while the low-well-being counties had a mean well-being score of 60.2 with a SD of 2.8. Among the six domains of well-being, basic access, which includes access to housing and healthcare, and life evaluation, which includes life satisfaction and optimism, differed the most between high-being and low-well-being counties. Among 29 county characteristics tested, six were independently and significantly associated with high well-being (p<0.05). These were lower rates of preventable hospital stays, higher supply of primary care physicians, lower prevalence of smoking, lower physical inactivity, higher percentage of some college education and higher percentage of heavy drinkers.

CONCLUSIONS

Among 770 high-poverty counties, approximately 9% outperformed expectations, reporting a collective well-being score in the top 20% of all counties in the USA. High-poverty counties reporting high well-being differed from high-poverty counties reporting low well-being in several characteristics.

Reducing Isolation and Loneliness Through Membership in a Fitness Program for Older Adults: Implications for Health

Objectives: To explore the effects of membership in a fitness program for older adults on social isolation, loneliness, and health. Method: Using survey responses from SilverSneakers members and matched nonmembers, regression path analysis was used to examine the influence of SilverSneakers membership on physical activity, social isolation, loneliness, and health, and the interrelationships among these concepts. Results: SilverSneakers membership directly increased physical activity and self-rated health, directly decreased social isolation, and indirectly decreased loneliness. Decreased social isolation and loneliness were associated with better self-rated health: social isolation and loneliness had independent direct effects on health, while social isolation also had an indirect effect on health mediated through loneliness. Discussion: Members of SilverSneakers experienced better health through increased physical activity, reduced social isolation, and reduced loneliness. Future research should explore independent effects of social isolation and loneliness on health and the mechanisms by which membership reduces social isolation and loneliness.

Associations between community well-being and hospitalisation rates: results from a cross-sectional study within six US states

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between community well-being, a positively framed, multidimensional assessment of the health and quality of life of a geographic community, and hospitalisation rates.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study SETTING: Zip codes within six US states (Florida, Iowa, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania and Utah) MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Our primary outcome was age-adjusted, all-cause hospitalisation rates in 2010; secondary outcomes included potentially preventable disease-specific hospitalisation rates, including cardiovascular-related, respiratory-related and cancer-related admissions. Our main independent variable was the Gallup-Sharecare Well-Being Index (WBI) and its domains (life evaluation, emotional health, work environment, physical health, healthy behaviours and basic access).

RESULTS

Zip codes with the highest quintile of well-being had 223 fewer hospitalisations per 100 000 (100k) residents than zip codes with the lowest well-being. In our final model, adjusted for WBI respondent age, sex, race/ethnicity and income, and zip code number of hospital beds, primary care physician density, hospital density and admission rates for two low-variation conditions, a 1 SD increase in WBI was associated with 5 fewer admissions/100k (95% CI 4.0 to 5.8; p<0.001). Results were similar for cardiovascular-related and respiratory-related admissions, but no association remained for cancer-related hospitalisation after adjustment. Patterns were similar for each of the WBI domains and all-cause hospitalisations.

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE

Community well-being is inversely associated with local hospitalisation rates. In addition to health and quality-of-life benefits, higher community well-being may also result in fewer unnecessary hospitalisations.

Effect of post-hospital discharge telephonic intervention on hospital readmissions in a privately insured population in Australia

Objective The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of telephone support after hospital discharge to reduce early hospital readmission among members of the disease management program My Health Guardian (MHG) offered by the Hospitals Contribution Fund of Australia (HCF). Methods A quasi-experimental retrospective design compared 28-day readmissions of patients with chronic disease between two groups: (1) a treatment group, consisting of MHG program members who participated in a hospital discharge (HODI) call; and (2) a comparison group of non-participating MHG members. Study groups were matched for age, gender, length of stay, index admission diagnoses and prior MHG program exposure. Adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) and odds ratios (OR) were estimated using zero-inflated negative binomial and logistic regression models respectively. Results The treatment group exhibited a 29% lower incidence of 28-day readmissions than the comparison group (adjusted IRR 0.71; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59-0.86). The odds of treatment group members being readmitted at least once within 28 days of discharge were 25% lower than the odds for comparison members (adjusted OR 0.75; 95% CI 0.63-0.89). Reduction in readmission incidence was estimated to avoid A$713730 in cost. Conclusions The HODI program post-discharge telephonic support to patients recently discharged from a hospital effectively reduced the incidence and odds of hospital 28-day readmission in a diseased population. What is known about the topic? High readmission rates are a recognised problem in Australia and contribute to the over 600000 potentially preventable hospitalisations per year. What does this paper add? The present study is the first study of a scalable intervention delivered to an Australian population with a wide variety of conditions for the purpose of reducing readmissions. The intervention reduced 28-day readmission incidence by 29%. What are the implications for practitioners? The significant and sizable effect of the intervention support the delivery of telephonic support after hospital discharge as a scalable approach to reduce readmissions.

Increasing exercise frequency is associated with health and quality-of-life benefits for older adults

Purpose

To evaluate whether health-related quality-of-life measures can be improved in a senior population by increasing participation in an exercise program.

Methods

The study involved a nationwide sample of adults aged 65 and older (mean age 73.2 in first study year) who participated in the SilverSneakers fitness program between 2010 and 2016. We analyzed data from 7 years of program participation records and annual participant surveys. Study members completed ≥ 2 annual surveys (n = 46,564). Participation frequency change was measured by average visits per week (AVPW) to a fitness center from the initial survey year to follow-up years. Quality-of-life measures included the 12-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12), Self-Rated Health, and BRFSS Healthy Days measures. Longitudinal analyses evaluated whether an increase in visit frequency among active members of SilverSneakers was associated with change in quality-of-life measures, controlling for age and gender.

Results

Participants with more frequent visits (higher AVPW) had better SF-12 Physical and Mental Component Scores, Self-Rated Health Status, and fewer physically and mentally unhealthy days (p < 0.001 for all measures); furthermore, participants who increased AVPW longitudinally saw improvements in all outcome measures (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

SilverSneakers participation frequency is associated with higher quality of life for seniors.

Do pregnant women living in higher well-being populations in the USA experience lower risk of preterm delivery? A cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To determine if preterm birth, defined as gestational age <37 weeks, is lower for women living in counties with higher well-being, after accounting for known individual risk factors.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study of all US births in 2011.

PARTICIPANTS

We obtained birth data from the National Center for Health Statistics which included 3 938 985 individuals.

MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES

Primary outcome measure was maternal risk of preterm delivery by county; primary independent variable was county-level well-being as measured by the Gallup-Sharecare Well-Being Index (WBI).

RESULTS

Women living in counties with higher population well-being had a lower rate of preterm delivery. The rate of preterm birth in counties in the lowest WBI quintile was 13.1%, while the rate of preterm birth in counties in the highest WBI quintile was 10.9%. In the model adjusted for maternal risk factors (age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, smoking status, timing of initiation of prenatal visits, multiparity, maternal insurance payer), the association was slightly attenuated with an absolute difference of 1.9% (95% CI 1.7% to 2.1%; p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Pregnant women who live in areas with higher population well-being have lower risk of preterm birth, even after accounting for individual risk factors.

Association of the Overall Well-being of a Population With Health Care Spending for People 65 Years of Age or Older

IMPORTANCE

New US health care payment models have increasingly incentivized health care systems to promote health and reduce health care spending at the population level, with Medicare beneficiaries representing one of the largest populations affected by new payment models. Identifying novel strategies to promote health and reduce health care spending is necessary.

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether the overall well-being of a population is associated with health care spending for people 65 years of age or older.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This US national, population-based cross-sectional study examined the association between county well-being and Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) spending. Population well-being, a holistic assessment of the overall health of the population comprising interrelated domains, including physical, mental, and social health, as measured by the Gallup-Sharecare Well-Being Index (2010), was linked to the mean spending per Medicare FFS beneficiary (2010) and county characteristics data for all US counties assessed. The data were adjusted for prevalence of 4 low-variation conditions (hip fracture, stroke, colorectal cancer, and acute myocardial infarction) and regional penetration of Medicare Advantage. Data analyses were conducted October 13, 2016, to October 31, 2017.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Mean spending per Medicare FFS beneficiary per county.

RESULTS

In total, 2998 counties were assessed using county-level mean values, with 4 to 7317 participants (mean [SD] number of participants, 755 [1220]) per county. The mean (SD) values of the demographic characteristics of the participants were 50.8% (1.3%) female, 74.9% (16.5%) white, 12.1% (13.0%) black, 4.0% (5.3%) Asian, and 13.7% (14.8%) Hispanic with a mean (SD) of the median county age of 38.2 (4.4) years. Medicare spent a mean (SE) of $992 ($110) less per Medicare FFS beneficiary in counties in the highest quintile of well-being compared with counties in the lowest well-being quintile. This inverse association persisted after accounting for key population characteristics such as median household income and contextual factors such as urbanicity and health care system capacity. Medicare spent a mean (SE) of $1233 ($104) less per Medicare FFS beneficiary in counties with the greatest access to basic needs than in those with the lowest access.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this US national study, the overall well-being of a geographically defined population was inversely associated with its health care spending for people 65 years and older. Identifying this association between well-being and health care spending at the population level may help to lay the foundation for further study to first illuminate the mechanisms underlying the association and to second study interventions aimed at creating greater well-being and lower health care spending at the population level.

Collective Well-Being to Improve Population Health Outcomes: An Actionable Conceptual Model and Review of the Literature

OBJECTIVES

To propose collective well-being as a holistic measure of the overall "health" of a community. To define collective well-being as a group-level construct measured across 5 domains (vitality, opportunity, connectedness, contribution, and inspiration) and introduce an actionable model that demonstrates how community characteristics affect collective well-being. To review the literature describing each domain's association with health outcomes and community characteristics' associations with collective well-being.

METHODS

We came to consensus on topics describing each component of our conceptual model. Because "well-being" is not indexed in MEDLINE, we performed topic-specific database searches and examined bibliographies of papers retrieved. We excluded articles that were limited to narrow subtopics or studies within small subpopulations. Preference was given to quasi-experimental or randomized studies, systematic reviews, or meta-analyses. Consensus was reached on inclusion or exclusion of all articles.

RESULTS

Reviewed literature supported each of the proposed domains as important aspects of collective well-being and as determinants of individual or community health. Evidence suggests a broad range of community characteristics support collective well-being.

CONCLUSIONS

The health and quality of life of a community may be improved by focusing efforts on community characteristics that support key aspects of well-being. Future work should develop a unified measure of collective well-being to evaluate the relative impact of specific efforts on the collective well-being of communities.

Identifying county characteristics associated with resident well-being: A population based study

Background

Well-being is a positively-framed, holistic assessment of health and quality of life that is associated with longevity and better health outcomes. We aimed to identify county attributes that are independently associated with a comprehensive, multi-dimensional assessment of individual well-being.

Methods

We performed a cross-sectional study examining associations between 77 pre-specified county attributes and a multi-dimensional assessment of individual US residents’ well-being, captured by the Gallup-Sharecare Well-Being Index. Our cohort included 338,846 survey participants, randomly sampled from 3,118 US counties or county equivalents.

Findings

We identified twelve county-level factors that were independently associated with individual well-being scores. Together, these twelve factors explained 91% of the variance in individual well-being scores, and they represent four conceptually distinct categories: demographic (% black); social and economic (child poverty, education level [<high school, high school diploma/equivalent, college degree], household income, % divorced); clinical care (% eligible women obtaining mammography, preventable hospital stays per 100,000, number of federally qualified health centers); and physical environment (% commuting by bicycle and by public transit).

Conclusions

Twelve factors across social and economic, clinical care, and physical environmental county-level factors explained the majority of variation in resident well-being.

Rural Aging in America: Proceedings of the 2017 Connectivity Summit

Rural Aging in America: Proceedings of the 2017 Connectivity Summit Alexis Skoufalos, EdD, Janice L. Clarke, RN, BBA, Dana Rose Ellis, BA, Vicki L. Shepard, MSW, MPA, and Elizabeth Y. Rula, PhD Editorial: Creating a Movement to Transform Rural Aging David B. Nash, MD, MBA, with Donato J. Tramuto, and Joseph F. Coughlin, PhD   S-3 Introduction   S-4 Summit Proceedings   S-5 Roundtable 1: The Power of Community - Enabling Social Connections and Access to Health Resources Through Community-Based Programs   S-5 Roundtable 2: Technology and Rural Health: Innovative Solutions to Bridge the Distance, Improve Care, and Deliver Programs   S-7 Roundtable 3: An Integrated Experience: The Exponential Potential of a Collaborative Approach to Rural Aging   S-8 General Discussion and Recommendations   S-8 Post-Summit Debriefing   S-9 Strategy and objectives   S-9 6-12 month action plan   S-9 Conclusion   S-9.

Impact of a scalable care transitions program for readmission avoidance

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the Care Transition Solution (CTS) as a means to improve quality through reduction of preventable hospital readmissions among patients with readmission-sensitive conditions subject to penalties imposed by the Affordable Care Act.

STUDY DESIGN

A retrospective quasi-experimental evaluation of the impact of the CTS among admitted patients diagnosed with heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and/or pneumonia (CMS readmission-penalty diagnoses) in 14 acute care hospitals in Texas. The program, designed for scalable delivery, incorporated identification of high readmission-risk patients, assessment of individual needs, medication reconciliation, discharge planning, care coordination, and telephonic postdischarge follow-up.

METHODS

The treatment group of program enrollees (N = 560) and the comparison group with no program contact (N = 3340) were matched on 8 coarsened demographic, diagnosis, and severity variables associated with readmission risk. Assessed outcomes included relative risk and odds of readmission within 30 days postdischarge and overall within the 6-month evaluation period. Zero-inflated Poisson multivariate models were used to estimate intervention effects controlling for matching-generated weights, age, disease status, and period of evaluation.

RESULTS

Treatment group risk of readmission was 22% lower overall (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.78; P < .01) and 30-day readmission risk was 25% lower (IRR, 0.75; P = .01) relative to the comparison group. Odds of any or 30-day readmission were 0.47 (95% CI, 0.35-0.65) and 0.56 (95% CI, 0.41-0.77), respectively, for treatment relative to comparison.

CONCLUSIONS

Participation in the CTS resulted in significantly lower rates of readmissions among patients with readmission-sensitive conditions, offering a scalable and sustainable approach to reduce the number of preventable hospital readmissions.

The well-being 5: development and validation of a diagnostic instrument to improve population well-being

Building upon extensive research from 2 validated well-being instruments, the objective of this research was to develop and validate a comprehensive and actionable well-being instrument that informs and facilitates improvement of well-being for individuals, communities, and nations. The goals of the measure were comprehensiveness, validity and reliability, significant relationships with health and performance outcomes, and diagnostic capability for intervention. For measure development and validation, questions from the Well-being Assessment and Wellbeing Finder were simultaneously administered as a test item pool to over 13,000 individuals across 3 independent samples. Exploratory factor analysis was conducted on a random selection from the first sample and confirmed in the other samples. Further evidence of validity was established through correlations to the established well-being scores from the Well-Being Assessment and Wellbeing Finder, and individual outcomes capturing health care utilization and productivity. Results showed the Well-Being 5 score comprehensively captures the known constructs within well-being, demonstrates good reliability and validity, significantly relates to health and performance outcomes, is diagnostic and informative for intervention, and can track and compare well-being over time and across groups. With this tool, well-being deficiencies within a population can be effectively identified, prioritized, and addressed, yielding the potential for substantial improvements to the health status, performance, and quality of life for individuals and cost savings for stakeholders.

Long-term impact of a chronic disease management program on hospital utilization and cost in an Australian population with heart disease or diabetes

BACKGROUND

To evaluate the longitudinal value of a chronic disease management program, My Health Guardian (MHG), in reducing hospital utilization and costs over 4 years.

METHODS

The MHG program provides individualized support via telephonic nurse outreach and online tools for self-management, behavior change and well-being. In follow up to an initial 18-month analysis of MHG, the current study evaluated program impact over 4 years. A matched-cohort analysis retrospectively compared MHG participants with heart disease or diabetes (treatment, N = 4,948) to non-participants (comparison, N = 28,520) on utilization rates (hospital admission, readmission, total bed days) and hospital claims cost savings. Outcomes were evaluated using regression analyses, controlling for remaining demographic, disease, and pre-program admissions or cost differences between the study groups.

RESULTS

Over the 4 year period, program participation resulted in significant reductions in hospital admissions (-11.4%, P < 0.0001), readmissions (-36.7%, P < 0.0001), and bed days (-17.2%, P < 0.0001). The effect size increased over time for admissions and bed days. The relative odds of any admission and readmission over the 4 years were 27% and 45% lower, respectively, in the treatment group. Cumulative program savings from reduced hospital claims was $3,549 over 4-years; savings values for each program year were significant and increased with time (P = 0.003 to P < 0.0001). Savings calculations did not adjust for pooled costs (and savings) in Australia's risk equalization system for private insurers.

CONCLUSIONS

Results confirm and extend prior program outcomes and support the longitudinal value of the MHG program in reducing hospital utilization and costs for individuals with heart disease or diabetes and demonstrate the increasing program effect with continued participation over time.

Impact of a senior fitness program on measures of physical and emotional health and functioning

The SilverSneakers fitness program is a health plan benefit for Medicare beneficiaries that provides older adults with fitness center membership, customized group exercise classes, and a supportive social environment that promotes socialization among participants. This study evaluated the impact of the SilverSneakers program on physical and emotional health and activities of daily living (ADLs). A quasi-experimental retrospective analysis compared annual survey responses from SilverSneakers members (treatment N=5586) to a matched national random sample of Medicare Advantage organization beneficiaries (comparison N=22,344) in Cohort 10 of the Medicare Health Outcomes Survey. Matching was performed based on 6 demographic and 6 disease status variables. Survey responses from 2007 and 2009 were evaluated using categorical and logistic regression analysis. The treatment group showed significantly better physical and emotional health and lower impairment in both 2007 and 2009, less impairment for 4 of 6 ADLs in 2007, and all 6 in 2009, and a higher average number of days of good health within the prior month for both years. Three-year longitudinal analyses indicated a significantly more favorable survey response trend for the treatment group for nearly all measures of health and ADLs. Members who exercised less frequently had poorer health and functioning. Overall, participation in the SilverSneakers program was associated with more favorable overall physical and social/emotional health status and fewer activity impairments, suggesting that the provision of senior-oriented group fitness programs may be a valuable approach to improve quality of life and reduce the burden associated with declining health and functioning as older adults age.

Well-being and employee health-how employees' well-being scores interact with demographic factors to influence risk of hospitalization or an emergency room visit

The goal of this study was to determine the relationship between individual well-being and risk of a hospital event in the subsequent year. The authors hypothesized an inverse relationship in which low well-being predicts higher likelihood of hospital use. The study specifically sought to understand how well-being segments and demographic variables interact in defining risk of a hospital event (inpatient admission or emergency room visit) in an employed population. A retrospective study design was conducted with data from 8835 employees who completed a Well-Being Assessment questionnaire based on the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the impact of Individual Well-Being Score (IWBS) segments and member demographics on hazard ratios (HRs) for a hospital event during the 12 months following assessment completion. Significant main effects were found for the influence of IWBS segments, sex, education, and relationship status on HRs of a hospital event, but not for age. However, further analysis revealed significant interactions between age and IWBS segments (P=0.005) and between age and sex (P<0.0001), indicating that the effects for IWBS segments and sex on HRs of a hospital event are mediated through their relationship with age. Overall, the strong relationship between low well-being and higher risk of an event in employees ages 44 years and older is mitigated in younger age groups. These results suggest that youth attenuates the risk engendered in poor well-being; therefore, methods to maintain or improve well-being as individuals age presents a strong opportunity for reducing hospital events.

Exploring robust methods for evaluating treatment and comparison groups in chronic care management programs

Evaluation of chronic care management (CCM) programs is necessary to determine the behavioral, clinical, and financial value of the programs. Financial outcomes of members who are exposed to interventions (treatment group) typically are compared to those not exposed (comparison group) in a quasi-experimental study design. However, because member assignment is not randomized, outcomes reported from these designs may be biased or inefficient if study groups are not comparable or balanced prior to analysis. Two matching techniques used to achieve balanced groups are Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM). Unlike PSM, CEM has been shown to yield estimates of causal (program) effects that are lowest in variance and bias for any given sample size. The objective of this case study was to provide a comprehensive comparison of these 2 matching methods within an evaluation of a CCM program administered to a large health plan during a 2-year time period. Descriptive and statistical methods were used to assess the level of balance between comparison and treatment members pre matching. Compared with PSM, CEM retained more members, achieved better balance between matched members, and resulted in a statistically insignificant Wald test statistic for group aggregation. In terms of program performance, the results showed an overall higher medical cost savings among treatment members matched using CEM compared with those matched using PSM (-$25.57 versus -$19.78, respectively). Collectively, the results suggest CEM is a viable alternative, if not the most appropriate matching method, to apply when evaluating CCM program performance.

Impact of a chronic disease management program on hospital admissions and readmissions in an Australian population with heart disease or diabetes

Chronic disease management programs (CDMPs) were introduced in Australia to reduce unnecessary health care utilization by the growing population with chronic conditions; however, evidence of effectiveness is needed. This study evaluated the impact of a comprehensive CDMP, My Health Guardian (MHG), on rate of hospital admissions, readmissions, and average length of hospital stay (ALOS) for insured individuals with heart disease or diabetes. Primary outcomes were assessed through retrospective comparison of members in MHG (treatment; n=5053) to similar nonparticipating members (comparison; n=23,077) using a difference-in-differences approach with the year before program commencement serving as baseline and the subsequent 12 or 18 months serving as the program periods. All outcomes were evaluated for the total study population and for disease-matched subgroups (heart disease and diabetes). Statistical tests were performed using multivariate regression controlling for age, sex, number of chronic diseases, and past hospitalization status. After both 12 and 18 months, treatment members displayed decreases in admissions (both, P≤0.001) and readmissions (both, P≤0.01), and ALOS after 18 months (P≤0.01) versus the comparison group; magnitude of impact increased over time for these 3 measures. All outcomes for both disease-matched subgroups directionally mirrored the total study group, but the diabetes subgroup did not achieve significance for readmissions or ALOS. Within the treatment group, admissions decreased with increasing care calls to members (12 and 18 months, P<0.0001). These results show that MHG successfully reduced the frequency and duration of hospital admissions and presents a promising approach to reduce the burden associated with hospitalizations in populations with chronic disease.

Evaluation of the relationship between individual well-being and future health care utilization and cost

Escalating health care expenditures highlight the need to identify modifiable predictors of short-term utilization and cost. Thus, the predictive value of individual well-being scores was explored with respect to 1-year health care expenditures and hospital utilization among 2245 employees and members of a health plan who completed the Well-Being Assessment (WBA). The relationship between well-being scores and hospital admissions, emergency room (ER) visits, and medical and prescription expenditures 12-months post WBA was evaluated using multivariate statistical models controlling for participant characteristics and prior cost and utilization. An inverse relationship existed between well-being scores and all measured outcomes (P≤0.01). For every point increase in well-being on a 100-point scale, respondents were 2.2% less likely to have an admission, 1.7% less likely to have an ER visit, and 1.0% less likely to incur any health care costs. Among those who did incur cost, each point increase in well-being was associated with 1% less cost, and individuals with low well-being scores (≤50) had 2.7 times the median annual expenditure of individuals with high well-being (>75) ($5172 and $1885, respectively). Also, well-being proved lowest among respondents who incurred more than $20,000, and was highest among those who incurred ≤$5000, with median scores of 71.1 and 80.3, respectively. These results indicate that individual well-being is a strong predictor of important near-term health care outcomes. Thus, well-being improvement efforts represent a promising approach to decrease future health care utilization and expenditures.

Enhancing multiple domains of well-being by decreasing multiple health risk behaviors: a randomized clinical trial

Tailored behavior change programs have proven effective at decreasing health risk factors, but the impact of such programs on participant well-being has not been tested. This randomized trial evaluated the impact of tailored telephone coaching and Internet interventions on health risk behaviors and individual well-being. Exercise and stress management were the primary health risks of interest; improvements in other health risk behaviors were secondary outcomes. A sample of 3391 individuals who reported health risk in the areas of exercise and stress management were randomly assigned to 3 groups: telephonic coaching that applied Transtheoretical Model (TTM) tailoring for exercise and minimal tailoring (stage of change) for stress management; an Internet program that applied TTM tailoring for stress management and minimal tailoring for exercise; or a control group that received an assessment only. Participants were administered the Well-Being Assessment and, at baseline, had relatively low well-being scores (mean, 60.9 out of 100 across all groups). At 6 months, a significantly higher percentage of both treatment groups progressed to the Action stage for exercise, stress management, healthy diet, and total number of health risks, compared to the control group. Both treatment groups also demonstrated significantly greater improvements on overall well-being and the domains of emotional health, physical health, life evaluation, and healthy behaviors. There were no differences between the groups for 2 well-being domains: basic access to needs and work environment. These results indicate that scalable, tailored behavior change programs can effectively reduce health risk and accrue to improved well-being for participants.

Potential Medicare savings through prevention and risk reduction

Medicare is challenged to maintain solvency as enrollment climbs because of the aging baby boomers and costs increase as a result of the substantial disease burden present among seniors. In the present study, an actuarial model was developed to determine the present cost (2008) of Medicare-covered benefits for elderly individuals, and to test the impact on cost of health risk reduction that may be possible through population health and wellness interventions. In the model, beneficiaries were categorized by risk according to health status using 3 different indices, and baseline per month and lifetime expenditures were estimated. Changes in morbidity were tested via scenarios of modified transition rates between the risk categories that might result from population health and wellness initiatives, including increases in the proportion of low-risk individuals entering Medicare, and delayed or reduced rates of upward risk transitions. The model showed that the discounted total lifetime cost of Medicare benefits was $174,018 per person, from age 65 until death. Each risk-reduction scenario was associated with both annual and lifetime cost savings, which accounted for increased longevity associated with decreased risk profiles. In conclusion, a model has been developed that can predict the impact on Medicare costs of varying levels of risk reduction in the senior population and, therefore, the potential financial benefit of population health and wellness policy initiatives directed at improving health prior to and during the years of Medicare. The model shows that there are substantial opportunities for savings through modest improvements to the health of the Medicare population.

Effectiveness of health and wellness initiatives for seniors

Given the increasing prevalence of obesity and lifestyle-related chronic diseases in the United States and abroad, senior wellness initiatives have emerged as a means to stem the troubling trends that threaten the well-being and the economy of many nations. Seniors are an important demographic for such programs because this age group is growing, both as a proportion of the overall population and as a contributor to health care cost escalation. The goal of senior wellness programs is to improve the overall health of seniors through a variety of approaches, including increased physical activity, better nutrition, smoking cessation, and support of other healthy behaviors. Outcome metrics of particular interest are the effects of participation in these programs on health care utilization and expenditures. This review describes several studies that demonstrate reduced inpatient admissions and health care costs, as well as improved health-related quality of life as a direct result of participation in large-scale senior wellness programs. Programs that effectively engage seniors in, and change behavior as a direct result of, participation provide strong evidence that health improvements and decreased health care expenditures can be achieved. However, solutions to the challenges of broader enrollment and sustained participation in these programs would increase the impact of their outcomes and health-related benefits.

The impact of a proactive chronic care management program on hospital admission rates in a German health insurance society

Hospital admissions are the source of significant health care expenses, although a large proportion of these admissions can be avoided through proper management of chronic disease. In the present study, we evaluate the impact of a proactive chronic care management program for members of a German insurance society who suffer from chronic disease. Specifically, we tested the impact of nurse-delivered care calls on hospital admission rates. Study participants were insured individuals with coronary artery disease, heart failure, diabetes, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease who consented to participate in the chronic care management program. Intervention (n  = 17,319) and Comparison (n  = 5668) groups were defined based on records of participating (or not participating) in telephonic interactions. Changes in admission rates were calculated from the year prior to (Base) and year after program commencement. Comparative analyses were adjusted for age, sex, region of residence, and disease severity (stratification of 3 [least severe] to 1 [most severe]). Overall, the admission rate in the Intervention group decreased by 6.2% compared with a 14.9% increase in the Comparison group (P  <  0.001). The overall decrease in admissions for the Intervention group was driven by risk stratification levels 2 and 1, for which admissions decreased by 8.2% and 14.2% compared to Comparison group increases of 12.1% and 7.9%, respectively. Additionally, Intervention group admissions decreased as the number of calls increased (P  =  0.004), indicating a dose-response relationship. These findings indicate that proactive chronic care management care calls can help reduce hospital admissions among German health insurance members with chronic disease.

The impact of postdischarge telephonic follow-up on hospital readmissions

Abstract Recurrent hospitalizations are responsible for considerable health care spending, although prior studies have shown that a substantial proportion of readmissions are preventable through effective discharge planning and patient follow-up after the initial hospital visit. This retrospective cohort study was undertaken to determine whether telephonic outreach to ensure patient understanding of and adherence to discharge orders following a hospitalization is effective at reducing hospital readmissions within 30 days after discharge. Claims data were analyzed from 30,272 members of a commercial health plan who were discharged from a hospital in 2008 to determine the impact of telephonic intervention on the reduction of 30-day readmissions. Members who received a telephone call within 14 days of discharge and were not readmitted prior to that call comprised the intervention group; all other members formed the comparison group. Multiple logistic regression was used to determine the impact of the intervention on 30-day readmissions, after adjusting for covariates. Results demonstrated that older age, male sex, and increased initial hospitalization length of stay were associated with an increased likelihood of readmission (P < 0.001). Receipt of a discharge call was associated with reduced rates of readmission; intervention group members were 23.1% less likely than the comparison group to be readmitted within 30 days of hospital discharge (P = 0.043). These findings indicate that timely discharge follow-up by telephone to supplement standard care is effective at reducing near-term hospital readmissions and, thus, provides a means of reducing costs for health plans and their members.

The impact of health risk awareness on employee risk levels

OBJECTIVES

To determine the accuracy of employee self-reported health data and to assess health-risk changes after participation in a workplace health awareness and promotion program.

METHODS

Comparative analysis of self-reported and objective health data from 5403 individuals who completed health screenings at 2 time-points.

RESULTS

At baseline, 45.5% of participants were higher risk, and 47.4% underreported 3 or more risk measures. At second screening, the population improved in overall risk and in 5 of 7 risk measures (P < 0.0001), and the underreporting group improved more dramatically than the total population.

CONCLUSIONS

Workplace health promotion programs founded on objective health metrics can motivate employee health-risk reduction.

Impact of predictive model-directed end-of-life counseling for Medicare beneficiaries

OBJECTIVES

To validate a predictive model for identifying Medicare beneficiaries who need end-of-life care planning and to determine the impact on cost and hospice care of a telephonic counseling program utilizing this predictive model in 2 Medicare Health Support (MHS) pilots.

STUDY DESIGN

Secondary analysis of data from 2 MHS pilot programs that used a randomized controlled design.

METHODS

A predictive model was developed using intervention group data (N = 43,497) to identify individuals at greatest risk of death. Model output guided delivery of a telephonic intervention designed to support educated end-of-life decisions and improve end-of-life provisions. Control group participants received usual care. As a primary outcome, Medicare costs in the last 6 months of life were compared between intervention group decedents (n = 3112) and control group decedents (n = 1630). Hospice admission rates and duration of hospice care were compared as secondary measures.

RESULTS

The predictive model was highly accurate, and more than 80% of intervention group decedents were contacted during the 12 months before death. Average Medicare costs were $1913 lower for intervention group decedents compared with control group decedents in the last 6 months of life (P = .05), for a total savings of $5.95 million. There were no significant changes in hospice admissions or mean duration of hospice care.

CONCLUSIONS

Telephonic end-of-life counseling provided as an ancillary Medicare service, guided by a predictive model, can reach a majority of individuals needing support and can reduce costs by facilitating voluntary election of less intensive care.

Protective roles of alpha-calcitonin and beta-calcitonin gene-related peptide in spontaneous and experimentally induced colitis

Calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) is thought to be involved in the regulation of gastric and mesenteric blood flow, in the control of gastric acid secretion and in the modulation of intestinal motility, yet the precise physiological roles of CGRP remain to be elucidated. To further examine the role(s) of CGRP in gastrointestinal function, we examined mutant mice lacking alphaCGRP or betaCGRP expression. Mutant mice did not demonstrate any overt phenotypic changes, yet exhibited a spontaneous, adult-onset colitis and increased colonic damage using a dextran sulfate sodium model of experimental colitis. Surprisingly, mice lacking betaCGRP show no obvious alterations in CGRP immunoreactivity in the gut, accompanied by an increase in alphaCGRP messenger RNA expression, suggesting an adaptive mechanism to compensate for the lack of betaCGRP. These data demonstrate that both alphaCGRP and betaCGRP play a protective role in the generation of spontaneous colitis, supporting a role for both extrinsic and intrinsic CGRP-containing neurons.