Household recovery in Mosul one year after the defeat of ISIS

Background

Widespread devastation to structures and households in Mosul occurred during the three years of ISIS control and the military liberation campaign by Iraqi forces assisted by coalition forces. Military operations, particularly airstrikes, resulted in a greater loss of life than during ISIS control. In 2016/17, we assessed living circumstances in Mosul immediately following defeat of ISIS. In September 2018, we reassessed many of the same indicators in Mosul households to determine the extent of recovery.

Methods

For the 2018 survey, a random selection of 20 clusters were drawn from the 40 clusters surveyed in 2016/17. Of these 20 clusters, 12 were in east Mosul and 8 in west Mosul, the same proportion as the original survey. In each cluster, 30 households were interviewed. No households were included in both surveys. A team of four interviewers collected information using questions adapted from the 2016/17 questionnaire.

Results

Among the 3375 persons from the 600 households in the 2018 survey, there had been 18 deaths reported in the year since the end of ISIS control, a mortality rate of 6.1/1000 (CI_95% [2.4–9.8]). This compares with a mortality rate of 30.7/1000 (CI_95% [28.3–33.2]) during ISIS control and liberation. Fifteen deaths were from disease, one from a non-intentional injury and two deaths due to intentional violence. Damage to dwellings had been fully repaired in only 22 (5.5%) of houses, mostly in less damaged east Mosul. Dramatic improvements in access to water and electricity have occurred, with three quarters of households reporting uninterrupted access to both. The previously reported large number of early marriages among household members stopped with the departure of ISIS. Of the 31 household marriages reported over a 12-month follow on study, 6 (19.4%) involved a female member of the household. This compares with 131 household males and 688 household females married during ISIS occupation. If marriages had continued at the same rate as for ISIS years during our one-year follow-on study, there would have been and expected 24 marriages of household males and 126 marriages of household females (OD 32.8, CI_95%[10.5102.8]) p < 0.001. There were 657 children reported by households to be in primary school. However, by household listing there were only 380 of children in the usual primary school age range (6–11), suggesting older children are catching up on primary schooling missed during ISIS years. One report of physical violence between spouses occurred. By comparison, the adjusted number of reported violent spousal events during ISIS control and military action would have been 72.7 (OR 316.7, CI_95% [44.42259.9]), p < 0.001. Reported complications of pregnancy also declined (OR 10.3, CI_95% [5.4,19.4], p < 0.001.

Conclusions

Substantial improvements in household measures have occurred since the end of ISIS control and military action, though much remains for full recovery. Many household members are now employed, primary school attendance is high and early marriage of girls was not found. There are fewer reported complications of pregnancy than in the previous study.

Living in Mosul during the time of ISIS and the military liberation: results from a 40-cluster household survey

BACKGROUND

In June 2014, an estimated 1500 fighters of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) seized control of Mosul, Iraq's second city. Although many residents fled, others stayed behind, enduring the restrictive civil and social policies of ISIS. In December 2016, the military activity, known as the liberation campaign, began in east Mosul, concluding in west Mosul in June 2017.

METHODS

To assess life in Mosul under ISIS, and the consequences of the military campaign to retake Mosul we conducted a 40 cluster-30 household survey in Mosul, starting in March 2017. All households included were present in Mosul throughout the entire time of ISIS control and military action.

RESULTS

In June 2014, 915 of 1139 school-age children (80.3%) had been in school, but only 28 (2.2%) attended at least some school after ISIS seized control. This represented a decision of families. Injuries to women resulting from intimate partner violence were reported in 415 (34.5%) households. In the surveyed households, 819 marriages had occurred; 688 (84.0%) among women. Of these women, 89 (12.9%) were aged 15 years and less, and 253 (49.7%) were aged under 18 at the time of marriage. With Mosul economically damaged by ISIS control and physically during the Iraqi military action, there was little employment at the time of the survey, and few persons were bringing cash into households. The liberation of Mosul in 2017 caused extensive damage to dwellings. Overall only a quarter of dwellings had not sustained some damage. In west Mosul, only 21.7% of houses had little or no damage from the conflict, with 98 (21.7%) households reporting their house had been destroyed, forcing its occupants to move. No houses had regular electricity and there was limited piped water. Inadequate fuel for cooking was reported by 996 (82.9%) households.

CONCLUSION

The physical, and social damage occurring during ISIS occupation of Mosul and during the subsequent military action (liberation) was substantial and its impact is unlikely to be erased soon.

Trends in infectious disease incidence among children in Afghanistan at a time of public health services expansion

This study reviewed trends in the incidence of common communicable diseases among children under five years in Afghanistan between 2005 and 2013, a period of expansion of public health services. New visits to outpatient clinics constituted the denominator for calculating proportions. In 2013, almost three-quarters of all new visits of children to public health services were for an infectious disease, with respiratory infections the most common. Because of inconsistent data collection for some infections early in the period, the trend for infectious diseases as a whole cannot be estimated. However, there was a statistically significant downward trend in the proportion of new visits that were diagnosed as one of the 11 leading communicable diseases from 74.5% in 2005 to 62.1% in 2013 (P < 0.001). There was no difference in communicable disease patterns between provinces, but a higher per capita consultation rate was associated with a higher proportion of the leading infections (P = 0.008). Recent improvements in maternal health, hygiene, and preventive services may have had an impact in reducing the burden of infections.

Strengthening the evidence base for health programming in humanitarian crises

Given the growing scale and complexity of responses to humanitarian crises, it is important to develop a stronger evidence base for health interventions in such contexts. Humanitarian crises present unique challenges to rigorous and effective research, but there are substantial opportunities for scientific advance. Studies need to focus where the translation of evidence from noncrisis scenarios is not viable and on ethical ways of determining what happens in the absence of an intervention. Robust methodologies suited to crisis settings have to be developed and used to assess interventions with potential for delivery at scale. Strengthening research capacity in the low- to middle-income countries that are vulnerable to crises is also crucial.

Institutional frameworks for management of epizoonotic emergencies in six countries in the Eastern Africa region: a situational analysis

INTRODUCTION

The Eastern Africa region is a hot-spot for epidemics of emerging zoonotic diseases ('epizoonotics'). However, the region's capacity for response to epidemics of zoonotic origin has not been documented. This paper presents a multi-country situational analysis on the institutional frameworks for management of zoonotic epidemics in the Eastern Africa region.

METHODS

A multi-country assessment of 6 country teams was conducted (Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, DRC and Rwanda). It involved a review of records and interviews with key informants from agencies with a stake in the management of zoonotic and disasters in general in the respective countries. Qualitative data were analyzed for key emerging themes.

FINDINGS

There are many socio-cultural risk factors to epidemic prone zoonotic diseases in the region. Countries have varying levels of preparedness for zoonotic emergencies. All 6 countries have a framework for disaster management. However, technical response to epidemics is managed by the line sectors, with limited Inter-sectoral collaboration. Some sectors were disproportionately more prepared than others. Surveillance systems are mostly passive and inadequate for early detection. All 6 countries have built reasonable capacity to respond to avian influenza, but not other zoonotic emergencies. Most countries lack personnel at the operational levels, and veterinary public health services are ill-facilitated.

CONCLUSION

There is need to strengthen veterinary public health services at all levels, but with a 'one health' approach. There is also need to establish 'risk-based surveillance' hot spots for zoonotic epidemics and to build community resilience 'epizoonotic' diseases.

Use of the Automated Disaster and Emergency Planning Tool in developing district level public health emergency operating procedures in three East African countries

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan Africa is vulnerable to several natural and man-made disasters. We used the CDC Automated Disaster and Emergency Planning Tool (ADEPT) to develop all-hazards disaster management plans at district level in three eastern African countries.

METHODS

During July 2008-February 2011, we used the automated disaster and emergency planning tool to conduct training on disaster planning and management in the three east African countries namely Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. We trained district disaster teams per country. We held 7 trainings in Tanzania, 8 in Uganda and 10 in Kenya respectively. The district disaster management teams trained comprised five district administrative personnel and a national Red Cross officer. The training took 5 days.

RESULTS

A total of 100 districts teams (40 in Uganda and 35 in Kenya and Tanzania respectively) were trained using the ADEPT and consequently 100 district disaster response plans were developed during 2008-2011. A total 814 district disaster team members from these districts were trained. Our experience has shown that the Automated Disaster Emergency Planning Tool is a relatively quick, easy, practical, participatory and inexpensive approach to developing emergency operating plans at the sub-national (district) level.

CONCLUSIONS

The ADEPT can be used relatively easily, quickly and inexpensively at the sub-national levels to develop emergency operating procedures to improve disaster management. Although the ADEPT enables district disaster response teams to generate their disaster response plans, the use of the ADEPT may be hampered by lack of computer skills and knowledge of MS computer programme by district personnel in resource limited settings.

Regional approach to building operational level capacity for disaster planning: the case of the Eastern Africa region

BACKGROUND

The Eastern Africa region is regularly affected by a variety of disasters ranging from drought, to human conflict and population displacement. The magnitude of emergencies and response capacities is similar across the region. In order to strengthen public health disaster management capacities at the operational level in six countries of the Eastern Africa region, the USAID-funded leadership project worked through the HEALTH Alliance, a network of seven schools of public health from six countries in the region to train district-level teams.

OBJECTIVES

To develop a sustainable regional approach to building operational level capacity for disaster planning.

METHODS

This project was implemented through a higher education leadership initiative. Project activities were spear-headed by a network of Deans and Directors of public health schools within local universities in the Eastern Africa region. The leadership team envisioned a district-oriented systems change strategy. Pre-service and in-service curricula were developed regionally and district teams were formed to attend short training courses. Project activities began with a situational analysis of the disaster management capacity at national and operational levels. The next steps were chronologically the formation of country training teams and training of trainers, the development of a regional disaster management training curriculum and training materials, the cascading of training activities in the region, and the incorporation of emerging issues into the training curriculum. An evaluation model included the analysis of preparedness impact of the training program.

RESULTS

The output from the district teams was the creation of individual district-level disaster plans and their implementation. This 4-year project focused on building operational level public health emergency response capacity, which had not previously been part of any national program. Use of the all-hazard approach rather than a scenario-based contingency planning led to the development of a standardized curriculum for training both in-service and pre-service personnel. Materials developed during the implementation phases of the project have been incorporated into public health graduate curricula in the seven schools. This systems-based strategy resulted in demonstrable outcomes related to district preparedness and university engagement in disaster management.

CONCLUSION

University partnerships are an effective method to build district-level disaster planning capacity. Use of a regional network created a standardized approach across six countries.

Hypothesis: Impregnated school uniforms reduce the incidence of dengue infections in school children

Dengue infection causes a significant economic, social and medical burden in affected populations in over 100 countries in the tropics and sub-tropics. Current dengue control efforts have generally focused on vector control but have not shown major impact. School-aged children are especially vulnerable to infection, due to sustained human-vector-human transmission in the close proximity environments of schools. Infection in children has a higher rate of complications, including dengue hemorrhagic fever and shock syndromes, than infections in adults. There is an urgent need for integrated and complementary population-based strategies to protect vulnerable children. We hypothesize that insecticide-treated school uniforms will reduce the incidence of dengue in school-aged children. The hypothesis would need to be tested in a community based randomized trial. If proven to be true, insecticide-treated school uniforms would be a cost-effective and scalable community based strategy to reduce the burden of dengue in children.

The delivery of ivermectin (Mectizan)

Over a comparatively short period of time, the development and distribution of ivermectin (Mectizan) has radically altered the consequences of infection with Onchocerca volvulus. To achieve this required the fostering of many partnerships and the development of new tools and methods. The long-term commitment of Merck, the World Bank and other sponsors, as well as governments and non-governmental organizations, has been crucial. Yet the enthusiasm with which communities have taken up the delivery of ivermectin among themselves is perhaps the greatest reason for the success of this programme. The present challenge is sustaining the methods that have brought success so far, and making them part of health services and disease control programmes in some of the world's most impoverished and unstable areas. A major part of this challenge is continuing the commitment to controlling onchocerciasis as memory of the disease is fading, and while the hope of elimination or eradication for most endemic countries remains distant.

Economic evaluation of Mectizan distribution

The distribution of ivermectin has dramatically altered the nature of onchocerciasis control. Existing economic analyses of ivermectin distribution programmes show that these programmes have a highly beneficial impact. Most analyses have estimated the economic benefits in terms of increased labour productivity as a result of reductions in blindness, and in terms of additional land-availability because of a reduced transmission of the parasite. Economic evaluations of the Onchocerciasis Control Program (OPC) in West Africa have calculated a net present value - equivalent discounted benefits minus discounted costs - of $485 million for the programme over a 39-year period, using a conservative 10% rate to discount future health and productivity gains. The net present value for the African Program for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) is calculated at 88 million US dollars over a 21-year time period, also using a 10% discount rate. Cost-effectiveness analyses of ivermectin distribution have found a cost of 14-30 US dollars per disability-adjusted life-year prevented - estimates comparable with other priority disease control programmes. However, the economic success of ivermectin distribution is sensitive to the fact that the drug itself has been donated free of charge. The market value of Merck's donations to the APOC for just 1 year considerably outweighs the benefits calculated for both the OPC and the APOC over the life of these projects. Pending the development of an effective macrofilaricide, the distribution of ivermectin will remain a public health priority into the foreseeable future.

Emerging issues and future needs in humanitarian assistance

During the past two decades, there has been tremendous investment in the ability to intervene in disaster settings, and significant barriers remain to providing appropriate services to populations affected by natural and man-made calamities. Many of the barriers to providing effective assistance exist within the NGO community, and illustrate emerging needs for international agencies. These emerging needs include improving methods of recipient participation to promote the local health system, developing improved methods for quality assurance, enhancing options for personnel development, and addressing long-term needs of reconstruction and rehabilitation. Relief agencies face challenges on all levels to develop sound practices in providing humanitarian assistance that can lead to long-term benefits to populations affected by disaster.

Demographic methods to assess food insecurity: a North Korean case study

In complex emergencies, especially those involving famine and/or widespread food insecurity, assessments of malnutrition are critical to understanding the population's health status and to assessing the effectiveness of relief interventions. Although the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has benefited from some of the largest, most sustained appeals in the history of the World Food Program (WFP), the government in Pyongyang has placed restrictions on international efforts to gather data on the health and nutritional status of the affected population.

QUESTION

Lacking direct means to assess the nutritional status of the North Korean populace, what other methodologies could be employed to measure the public health impacts of chronic food shortage? The paper begins with a review of methods for assessing nutritional status, particularly in emergencies; a brief history of the North Korean food crisis (1995-2001), and a review of the available nutritional and health data on the DPRK. The main focus of the paper is on the results of a survey of 2,692 North Korean adult migrants in China. Recognizing certain biases and limitations, the study suggests that sample households have experienced an overall decline in food security, as evidenced by both the decline in government rations from an average of 120 grams per person per day to less than 60 grams per day, and by the increase in the percentage of households relying on foraging or bartering of assets as their principal source of food. It also is apparent that the period 1995-1998 has been marked by elevated household mortality, declining fertility, and steadily rising out-migration. Taken together, the signs point toward famine, whether that is defined as a discrete event--that is, as a regional failure in food production or distribution leading to elevated mortality from starvation and associated disease--or as a more complex social process whose sub-states include not only elevated mortality, but declining fertility, eating of alternative 'famine foods', transfer of assets, and the uprooting and separation of families.

The accuracy of mortality reporting in displaced persons camps during the post-emergency phase

For humanitarian organisations, accurate data are essential to identify emerging health problems and determine programme needs. We visited 45 post-emergency phase displaced persons camps and collected three months' mortality data which we compared with organisations' routine mortality reports. Organisations reported 612 deaths and we identified 741 deaths, for a mortality-reporting ratio, defined as the number of organisation-reported deaths divided by the number of investigator-identified deaths, of 83 per cent. For the majority of camps which under-reported deaths, mortality reporting ratios were significantly higher for women than men, and for camps with central mortality registers rather than those without. In the few camps which over-reported deaths, these occurred primarily among children younger than five years of age, probably due to the inclusion of abortions and stillbirths. Despite the overall under-reporting of deaths by humanitarian organisations, the existing health information systems appear to estimate mortality rates adequately in these post-emergency camps. However, organisations should improve the precision and completeness with which they report the characteristics of deaths in order to provide valuable data to target their programmes at the most vulnerable people.

User fees, health staff incentives, and service utilization in Kabarole District, Uganda

OBJECTIVE

To determine the impact of user fees on the utilization of health services in a community-based cost-sharing scheme in Kabarole District, western Uganda.

METHODS

Of the 38 government health units that had introduced user-fee financing schemes, 11 were included in the study. Outpatient utilization was assessed as the median number of visits per month before and after cost sharing began.

FINDINGS

After the introduction of cost sharing, overall utilization of general outpatient services, assessed by combining the data from all the participating units, dropped by 21.3%. Utilization increased, however, in facilities located in remote areas, while it decreased in those located in urban or semi-urban areas. The increased utilization in remote facilities was considered to be largely attributable to health workers' incentive payments derived from cost-sharing revenues.

CONCLUSIONS

Incentive payments led the health workers to offer improved services. Other factors may also have been influential, such as an improved drug supply to health facilities and increased public identification with community projects in remote areas.

Validation of caregiver interviews to diagnose common causes of severe neonatal illness

The objective of this study was to validate retrospective caregiver interviews for diagnosing major causes of severe neonatal illness and death. A convenience sample of 149 infants aged < 28 days with one or more suspected diagnoses of interest (low birthweight/severe malnutrition, preterm birth, birth asphyxia, birth trauma, neonatal tetanus, pneumonia, meningitis, septicaemia, diarrhoea, congenital malformation or injury) was taken from patients admitted to two hospitals in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Study paediatricians performed a standardised history and physical examination and ordered laboratory and radiographic tests according to study criteria. With a median interval of 64.5 days after death or hospital discharge, caregivers of 118 (79%) infants were interviewed about their child's illness. Using reference diagnoses based on predefined clinical and laboratory criteria, the sensitivity and specificity of particular combinations of signs (algorithms) reported by the caregivers were ascertained. Sufficient numbers of children with five reference standard diagnoses were studied to validate caregiver reports. Algorithms with sensitivity and specificity > 80% were identified for neonatal tetanus, low birthweight/severe malnutrition and preterm delivery. Algorithms with specificities > 80% for birth asphyxia and pneumonia had sensitivities < 70%, or alternatively had high sensitivity with lower specificity. In settings with limited access to medical care, retrospective caregiver interviews provide a valid means of diagnosing several of the most common causes of severe neonatal illness and death.

Potential implications of the integrated management of childhood illness (IMCI) for hospital referral and pharmaceutical usage in western Uganda

The integrated management of childhood illness approach (IMCI) is currently being implemented by a number of countries worldwide. This is the second report from a study in western Uganda comparing the assessment and classification of disease by medical assistants using the IMCI algorithm with that of hospital-based general medical officers, who used their clinical judgement to assess and provide treatment. Treatment prescribed by the hospital medical officers was compared to that indicated by IMCI disease classifications. The study population comprised 1226 children aged 2-59 months. Medical assistants had some difficulty in completing the IMCI assessment, leading to incorrect classification of findings in 138 of 1086 completed forms (13%). If their classifications had been used to decide on hospital referral, 37 children who met IMCI criteria for referral would have been sent home. Consultations took on average 7.2 min, longer than usual for several African countries. Use of the IMCI guidelines would have referred 16.2% of children to hospital, compared with 22% referred by the medical officers. Use of IMCI could have reduced the cost of medication to US$0.17 per child compared to the treatment cost of US$0.82 as prescribed by medical officers. Medical officers prescribed both a greater number and a greater variety of drugs than indicated by the IMCI algorithm. Compared to the present management of sick children by medical officers at Kabarole district hospital, using the IMCI algorithm would bring major changes in pharmaceutical use and referral practices. However, there is concern about the difficulty medical assistants had in using it, and the potential for longer consultation times.

Prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus nodules in the Sankuru River Valley, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and reliability of verbal assessment as a method for determining prevalence

The epidemiology of onchocerciasis in much of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (formerly Zaire) is not well established. We report the results of an onchocerciasis rapid assessment survey carried out in 18 villages of the Sankuru River Valley in the central part of this country in preparation for mass distribution of ivermectin. Thirty men from each village were randomly selected and examined for subcutaneous nodules. The prevalence of nodules among these men in each village ranged from 82.5% to 100% with a mean prevalence of 95.0%. This study also assessed the validity of using verbal assessment instead of physical examination to determine prevalence of nodules. This verbal method had a sensitivity of 93.5% and a specificity of 83.3%. High sensitivity and specificity for this method suggest that it might be a cost-effective approach to determine the prevalence of onchocerciasis over large areas without using physical examinations requiring medical personal. This approach could be particularly useful where the coverage of health services is poor. The use of the Global Positioning System made it possible to send coordinates and survey data electronically to World Health Organization personnel in Geneva for computer generation of prevalence maps. The use of river boats to conduct surveys and support ivermectin distribution in the Congo is discussed.

Ivermectin distribution using community volunteers in Kabarole district, Uganda

Ivermectin mass distribution for the control of onchocerciasis in Uganda began in 1991. This report describes a community based ivermectin distribution programme covering two foci in the Kabarole district which have an estimated 32,000 persons infected and another 110,000 at risk. Through nodule palpation in adult males, 143 villages were identified where nodule prevalence exceeded 20%. Skin snips were also taken from a sample of the population to measure changes in community microfilarial load (CMFL) with treatment. The delivery programme was integrated into the district health management structure, and used community volunteers supervised by medical assistants from adjacent health facilities for annual ivermectin distribution campaigns. After initial efforts by the community to support distributors in-kind proved inadequate, ivermectin distributors earned money retailing condoms as part of the social marketing component of district STD/AIDS programme. Reduction in the CMFL ranged from 40-62% twelve months after the second ivermectin treatment in three villages, and from 69-84% six months after the fourth round of treatment in two villages. After four years of treatment, 85% of eligible persons were receiving ivermectin from community volunteers in each treatment cycle. Drop out rates among volunteers did not exceed 20% over the four years reported here. The direct cost of treatment was US $0.29 per person. Among the reasons for low per-person treatment costs were the strong supervisory structure, the presence of health centres in the foci and a well developed and capable district Primary Health Care management team.

The integrated management of childhood illness in western Uganda

Bringing together various disease-specific guidelines for sick children, WHO and UNICEF have developed an Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) algorithm, one component of which (assess and classify) was tested in the outpatient department of a rural district hospital in western Uganda. Children aged 2-59 months were seen first by a Ugandan medical assistant trained in IMCI, and then evaluated by a medical officer. Sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values were determined by comparing the IMCI classifications with a reference standard based on the medical officers' diagnoses and laboratory tests. Of the 1226 children seen, 69% were classified into more than one symptom category, 7% were not classified in any symptom category, 8% had a danger sign, and 16% were classified into a severe category, for which the IMCI approach recommended urgent hospital referral. Specificity for most classifications was good, though sensitivity and positive predictive values were variable. We conclude that the IMCI algorithm is an important advance in the primary care of sick children in developing countries.

Evaluation of clinical signs to diagnose anaemia in Uganda and Bangladesh, in areas with and without malaria

The object of this study was to assess the ability of pallor and other clinical signs, including those in the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) guidelines developed by WHO and UNICEF, to identify severe anaemia and some anaemia in developing country settings with and without malaria. A total of 1226 and 668 children aged 2 months to 5 years were prospectively sampled from patients presenting at, respectively, a district hospital in rural Uganda and a children's hospital in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The study physicians obtained a standardized history and carried out a physical examination that included pallor, signs of respiratory distress, and the remaining IMCI referral signs. The haematocrit or haemoglobin level was determined in all children with conjunctival or palmar pallor, and in a sample of the rest. Children with a blood level measurement and assessment of pallor at both sites were included in the anaemia analysis. Using the haematocrit or haemoglobin level as the reference standard, the correctness of assessments using severe and some pallor and other clinical signs in classifying severe and some anaemia was determined. While the full IMCI process would have referred most of the children in Uganda and nearly all the children in Bangladesh with severe anaemia to hospital, few would have received a diagnosis of severe anaemia. Severe palmar and conjunctival pallor, individually and together, had 10-50% sensitivity and 99% specificity for severe anaemia; the addition of grunting increased the sensitivity to 37-80% while maintaining a reasonable positive predictive value. Palmar pallor did not work as well as conjunctival pallor in Bangladesh for the detection for severe or some anaemia. Combining "conjunctival or palmar pallor" detected 71-87% of moderate anaemia and half or more of mild anaemia. About half the children with no anaemia were incorrectly classified as having "moderate or mild" anaemia. Anaemia was more easily diagnosed in Uganda in children with malaria. Our results show that simple clinical signs can correctly classify the anaemia status of most children. Grunting may serve as a useful adjunct to pallor in the diagnosis of severe anaemia. Conjunctival pallor should be added to the IMCI anaemia box, or the guidelines need to be adapted in regions where palmar pallor may not readily be detected.

Identifying sick children requiring referral to hospital in Bangladesh

The object of this study was to evaluate and improve the guidelines for the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) with respect to identifying young infants and children requiring referral to hospital in an area of low malaria prevalence. A total of 234 young infants (aged 1 week to 2 months) and 668 children (aged 2 months to 5 years) were prospectively sampled from patients presenting at a children's hospital in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The study paediatricians obtained a standardized history and carried out a physical examination, including items in the IMCI guidelines developed by WHO and UNICEF. The paediatricians made a provisional diagnosis and judged whether each patient needed hospital admission. Using the paediatrician's assessment of a need for admission as the standard, the sensitivity and specificity of the current and modified IMCI guidelines for correctly referring patients to hospital were examined. The IMCI's sensitivity for a paediatrician's assessment in favour of hospital admission was 84% (95% confidence interval (CI): 75-90) for young infants and 86% (95% CI: 81-90) for children, and the specificity was, respectively, 54% (95% CI: 45-63) and 64% (95% CI: 59-69). One fourth or more in each group had a provisional diagnosis of pneumonia, and the IMCI's specificity was increased without lowering sensitivity by modifying the respiratory signs calling for referral. These results show that the IMCI has good sensitivity for correctly referring young infants and children requiring hospital admission in a developing country setting with a low prevalence of malaria. The guidelines' moderate specificity will result in considerable over-referral of patients not needing admission, thereby decreasing opportunities for successful treatment of patients at first-level health facilities. The impact of the IMCI guidelines on children's health and the health care system must be judged in the light of current treatment practices, health outcomes and referral patterns.

Introducing quality management into primary health care services in Uganda

In 1994, a national quality assurance programme was established in Uganda to strengthen district-level management of primary health care services. Within 18 months both objective and subjective improvements in the quality of services had been observed. In the examples documented here, there was a major reduction in maternal mortality among pregnant women referred to Jinja District Hospital, a reduction in waiting times and increased patient satisfaction at Masaka District Hospital, and a marked reduction in reported cases of measles in Arua District. Beyond these quantitative improvements, increased morale of district health team members, improved satisfaction among patients, and greater involvement of local government in the decisions of district health committees have been observed. At the central level, the increased coordination of activities has led to new guidelines for financial management and the procurement of supplies. District quality management workshops followed up by regular support visits from the Ministry of Health headquarters have led to a greater understanding by central staff of the issues faced at the district level. The quality assurance programme has also fostered improved coordination among national disease-control programmes. Difficulties encountered at the central level have included delays in carrying out district support visits and the failure to provide appropriate support. At the district level, some health teams tackled problems over which they had little control or which were overly complex; others lacked the management capacity for problem solving.

The Nakalanga syndrome in Kabarole District, Western Uganda

An acquired condition resulting in arrested growth was reported in the 1950s and 1960s from along the Nile near Jinja in eastern Uganda. This became known as Nakalanga dwarfism, and an association with onchocerciasis was postulated. After control of onchocerciasis through larvaciding in this area some 30 years ago, no new cases have been noted. We now report this condition from western Uganda where its appearance seems to be a relatively recent event. Thirty-one persons with short stature, 15 years of age and older, were identified through household surveys in an area of Kabarole district with a high prevalence of onchocerciasis. Cases identified were matched with controls selected for age and sex from the nearest household. Cases of Nakalanga syndrome weighed significantly less and were shorter than controls. The Z scores for weight-for-age, weight-for-height, height-for-age, and body mass index were significantly less among cases. Other clinical features observed among cases included absence of secondary sexual characteristics, skeletal deformities, dental caries, and mental retardation. All cases and 22 (79%) controls had microfilariae of Onchocerca volvulus in skin snips. All community members interviewed were aware of the Nakalanga syndrome, and 93% believed it to be acquired sometime after birth. The possible association with onchocerciasis is discussed.

Malaria, an unclear but present danger

Malaria is an ever present danger to those who travel in endemic areas. Falciparum malaria may be a life-threatening condition, even when treated promptly and appropriately. It is important that practitioners be aware that international travelers are at risk for malaria. It is also important to advise patients to seek expert advice on malaria prevention before they travel to malarious areas.

Ivermectin treatment of onchocercal skin lesions: observations from a placebo-controlled, double-blind trial in Malawi

To determine effects of ivermectin on skin lesions of onchocerciasis, a placebo-controlled, double-blind trial was carried out in the Thyolo highlands of Malawi involving 70 persons over a 32-month period. Assessment was made using both a clinical numeric grading system and sequential photographs. Among both ivermectin and placebo recipients, there was a significant reduction in both the severity and extent of papular skin lesions. Persons with edematous or lichenified skin lesions of onchocerciasis who received ivermectin showed significantly more improvement than those receiving placebo. Twelve months after the placebo group received ivermectin, their skin lesions were similar to those of the ivermectin group. Changes were most evident for those persons with more severe skin disease in both the ivermectin and placebo groups. Annual ivermectin treatment for onchocercal skin lesions is probably inadequate, and treatment three or four times a year may be required, although the optimum regimen has not been established.

Assessing and planning home-based care for persons with AIDS

The HIV/AIDS pandemic continues to gather momentum in many developing countries, increasing the already heavy burden on health care facilities. As a result, donors, implementing partners and communities are beginning to create home-based care programmes to provide care for persons with HIV/AIDS. This paper recommends reorienting this home care provision as a service founded in, and coming from, the community rather than the health system. A methodology, in the form of an assessment matrix, is provided to facilitate the assessment of a community's capacity to provide care for people with AIDS. The focus is on rapid assessment methods using, where possible, readily available information to clearly and systematically define current circumstances. The matrix created for a specific community is then used in the development of an action plan with interventions prioritized and tailored to local needs. A case study from a hypothetical developing country, where HIV/AIDS is a significant problem, is used to illustrate the process.

Knowledge and attitudes toward onchocerciasis in the Thyolo highlands of Malawi

In preparation for mass distribution of ivermectin to control onchocerciasis in the Thyolo highlands of Malawi a survey was conducted to determine knowledge and attitudes toward onchocerciasis which could assist in developing educational messages. Since onchocerciasis is not known by a specific name in the Thyolo highlands, information was sought about individual perceptions of common symptoms of infection. Itching, skin thickening, nodules, or depigmentation (leopard skin) were reported by 95% of those interviews. Effective treatment was often thought by the community to be available when actually it was not. Traditional healers were not thought to be an important source for treatment of lesions associated with onchocerciasis. None of those interviewed associated Simulium damnosum s.l. with any symptoms other those related to the actual bite. Based on the information gathered, various options for ivermectin educational messages are discussed.

Quality assurance management methods applied to a local-level primary health care system in rural Nigeria

Introduction. Management of primary health care (PHC) systems in less developed countries is often impeded by factors such as poorly trained personnel, limited financial resources, and poor worker morale. This study explored the ability of local-level PHC supervisors in rural Nigeria to use quality assurance (QA) management methods to improve the quality of the PHC system. Methods. PHC supervisors from Bama Local Government Area were trained for 3 days in the use of QA methods and tools. The supervisors targeted the supervisory system and the health information system (HIS) for improvement. Health worker performance in diarrhoea case management was assessed, using a simulated case, to measure the impact of supervision. A HIS audit assessed data collection forms used by 17 PHC facilities. Gaps in quality were monitored over a 2-month study period and flaws in work processes were modified. Results. PHC supervisors introduced a checklist during monthly visits to facilities to monitor how workers managed cases of diarrhoea. Performance in history-taking, physical examination, disease classification, treatment and counselling improved over the evaluation period. The HIS audit found that a variety of reporting forms were used at PHC facilities. After HIS reporting was standardized, the number of health facilities using a daily disease registry significantly improved during the study period. Conclusions. QA management methods were used by PHC supervisors in Nigeria to improve supervision and the HIS. QA management methods are appropriate for improving the quality of the PHC in Nigeria and in other less developed countries where at least a minimal PHC infrastructure exists.

HIV seropositivity and tuberculosis in a rural Malawi hospital

This study was undertaken to determine the extent to which human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection has increased hospital admissions for tuberculosis (TB) in a rural population of southern Malawi. The notes and chest X-rays of TB patients admitted to Malamulo hospital in 1983 and 1984, before the recognition of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in Malawi, were compared with those of patients admitted in 1987 and 1988. We found a 160% increase in TB admissions between the 2 periods. Extrapulmonary TB, especially pleural TB, was much commoner in 1987-1988 and occurred in a younger age group. HIV seroreactivity was measured in a third group of 152 tuberculosis patients admitted during 1988-1989. HIV seropositivity was found in 52% of all tuberculosis admissions and in 75% of those with extrapulmonary disease. There was no difference in clinical response to TB therapy between the HIV seropositive patients and those who were seronegative. Extrapulmonary TB should be considered in all HIV seropositive patients, especially in areas where the prevalence of TB is high. Health personnel involved in TB programmes where HIV and TB infections are prevalent should plan for a large increase in the TB case load secondary to the HIV pandemic.