OP0226 TRAJECTORIES OF BODY MASS INDEX FROM EARLY ADULTHOOD TO LATE MIDLIFE AND INCIDENCE OF TOTAL KNEE ARTHROPLASTY FOR OSTEOARTHRITIS: FINDINGS FROM A PROSPECTIVE COHORT STUDY

Background

There is limited evidence regarding the association between trajectories of body mass index (BMI) across adulthood and knee osteoarthritis.

Objectives

We examined the association between body mass index (BMI) trajectories across early adulthood to midlife and risk of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) for osteoarthritis.

Methods

This study examined 24,368 participants (40-70 years at recruitment) in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study who had weight collected at 1990–1994, 1995–1998, and 2003–2007 and recalled weight at age 18–21 years. BMI trajectories were derived using weight data at the four timepoints. Incidence of TKA after 2003–2007 until December 2018 was determined by linking cohort records to the National Joint Replacement Registry.

Results

Using group-based trajectory modelling, six distinct trajectories (TR) of BMI from early adulthood to late midlife were identified: lower normal to normal BMI (TR1: BMI at age 18-21 years to BMI at approximately 62 years (kg/m2), 20.0±1.9 to 22.1±1.7; 19.7%); normal BMI to borderline overweight (TR2: 21.5±2.3 to 25.8±1.7; 36.7%), normal BMI to overweight (TR3: 22.0±2.2 to 29.5±1.9; 26.8%), overweight to borderline obese (TR4: 28.5±2.7 to 30.5±2.3; 3.5%), normal BMI to class 1 obesity (TR5: 22.8±2.5 to 34.3±2.3; 10.1%), and overweight to class 2 obesity (TR6: 25.6±3.9 to 39.2±2.9; 3.2%). Over 12.4 years, 1,328 (5.4%) participants had TKA. The hazard ratios for TKA increased in all TR compared with TR1: TR2 2.03 (95% CI 1.64-2.52), TR3 4.00 (3.19-4.91), TR4 5.17 (3.77-7.10), TR5 7.00 (5.54-8.80), and TR6 8.59 (6.44-11.46). It is estimated that 28.4% TKA would be reduced if individuals followed the trajectory that was one lower, a national health system savings of $AUD 373 million. Most of this reduction would occur in TR2 (population attributable fraction 37.9% (26.7%-47.3%) and TR3 PAF 26.8% (20.0%, 31.2%) (Table 1).

Table 1.

Reduction in TKA if individuals followed the trajectory that was one lower

Population counterfactualsPopulation at risk, n (%)TKA under the original scenario, n (%)TKA under the new scenario*, n (%)Difference in risk, n (%)PAF** (95% CI), %TR14811 (19.7)124 (2.6%)No change 124 (2.6%)0-If TR2 followed TR1 trajectory and rate of TKA*8943 (36.7)378 (4.2%)2.6% of 8943 = 233145 (10.9)37.9 (26.7, 47.3)If TR3 followed TR2 trajectory and rate of TKA*6526 (26.8)416 (6.4%)4.2% of 6526 = 274142 (10.7)26.8 (20.0, 31.2)If TR4 followed TR3 trajectory and rate of TKA*845 (3.5)64 (7.6%)6.4% of 845 = 5410 (0.8)3.1 (0, 6.0)If TR5 followed TR4 trajectory and rate of TKA*2466 (10.1)253 (10.3%)7.6% of 2466 =18766 (5.0)20.2 (0, 36.3)If TR6 followed TR5 trajectory and rate of TKA*777 (3.2)93 (12.0%)10.3% of 777 = 8013 (1.0)0.4 (0.0, 10.0)Total population243681328952376 (28.4)-

*if the trajectory is changed, ** PAFs and related 95%CIs were calculated by the Stata punafcc package using the formula ∑pKRi[(HRi − 1)/HRi], where pKRi is the proportion of total knee replacements observed in the ith obesity trajectory and HRi is the hazard ratio (HR) associated with that category. PAFs were calculated using pKRi and HRi estimated from the entire sample. All HRi values were generated from Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for covariates (age at baseline, sex, country of birth, physical activity, smoking history, and comorbidity) and postestimation analyses.

Conclusion

Our study suggests that prevention of weight gain from young adulthood to midlife in order to reduce overweight and obesity could have a major impact on reducing the burden of severe knee osteoarthritis and associated healthcare costs.

Figure 1.

A. Proportion of Total Knee Arthroplasties in each trajectory category B. Speculated patters and associated percentages represents the proportion of Total Knee Arthroplasties that could be avoided in each trajectory category if the participants followed the lower trajectory category i.e. TR2 followed TR1

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

Functional variants at the 11q13 risk locus for breast cancer regulate cyclin D1 expression through long-range enhancers

Analysis of 4,405 variants in 89,050 European subjects from 41 case-control studies identified three independent association signals for estrogen-receptor-positive tumors at 11q13. The strongest signal maps to a transcriptional enhancer element in which the G allele of the best candidate causative variant rs554219 increases risk of breast cancer, reduces both binding of ELK4 transcription factor and luciferase activity in reporter assays, and may be associated with low cyclin D1 protein levels in tumors. Another candidate variant, rs78540526, lies in the same enhancer element. Risk association signal 2, rs75915166, creates a GATA3 binding site within a silencer element. Chromatin conformation studies demonstrate that these enhancer and silencer elements interact with each other and with their likely target gene, CCND1.

Changes in cerebral oximetry during peritoneal insufflation for laparoscopic procedures

Background:

Changes in cardiac output may occur during insufflation for laparoscopic procedures. However, there are limited data regarding its potential effects on cerebral oxygenation.

Materials and Methods:

Cerebral oxygenation (ScO₂), end tidal CO₂, heart rate, blood pressure and oxygen saturation by pulse oximetry were recorded every 5 minutes prior to insufflation, during insufflation and after desufflation. Minute ventilation was increased to maintain normocapnia and the depth of anesthesia was adjusted or fluids/phenylephrine administered to maintain the blood pressure within 20% of the baseline.

Results:

The cohort for the study included 70 adults for laparoscopic herniorrhaphy, gastric bypass or cholecystectomy. A total of 1004 ScO₂ values were obtained during laparoscopy. The ScO₂ decreased from the baseline in 758 of the 1004 data points. The ScO₂ was 0–9 less than the baseline in 47.8% of the values, 10–19 less than the baseline in 24.9% of the values and 20–29 less than the baseline in 26 values (2.6%). Eighty-two (8.2%) of the values were less than 80% of the baseline value, while 25 values (2.5%) were less than 75% of the baseline value. Twelve patients had at least one ScO₂ value that was less than 80% of the baseline and 6 had at least one ScO₂ value that was less than 75% of the baseline. Four patients of the cohort had ScO₂ values less than 80% of the baseline for more than 50% of the laparoscopic procedure.

Conclusions:

Although relatively uncommon, significant changes in cerebral oxygenation do occur in some patients during insufflation for laparoscopic surgery.

The two-week waiting time standard for cancer: A neurosurgical perspective

The implementation of the two-week wait initiative for cancer referrals in the NHS has had a major impact on outpatient services. A low clinical detection rate among GPs for neurological cancer has resulted in a large number of urgent referrals with a low yield of positive diagnoses. We have devised a strategy for minimizing the impact on outpatient clinics: patients are scanned prior to clinical review and those with normal scans are referred back to the GP without a clinic appointment. Out of 69 referrals of suspected CNS cancer made in 2003, 61 were scanned and six resulted in a positive diagnosis. The equivalent of 10 clinics was saved, and an increased speed of diagnosis and treatment was achieved with no compromise in patient care. Our study illustrates the consequences of the 2-week wait initiative on the neurosurgical service, and proposes an effective and safe solution.

Glioma patterns of care in Victoria from 1998–2000

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Background: The management of Gliomas is complex and requires a multidisciplinary approach. The care of such patients (pts) may be variable. The State of Victoria has a population of approximately 4 million people and over 300 new glioma cases diagnosed annually. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study conducted by surveying doctors involved in managing incident adult glioma cases identified from the population based Victorian Cancer Registry during 1998–2000. The survey was conducted in 2004–5 obtaining at least four years follow-up data on all pts. Results: 828 pts were considered eligible for this study. 264 pts (32%) were aged over 70 years and 92 (11%) were aged over 80 years. 105 (13%) did not have a histologic diagnosis and 473 (57%) had glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). Complete macroscopic resection was performed in 209 pts (25%). Of all pts with a glioma, 612 (74%) and 326 (54%) were referred at initial diagnosis for consideration of radiotherapy and chemotherapy respectively. In 473 pts with GBM, 406 (86%) and 147 (31%) pts were initially referred for consideration of radiotherapy and chemotherapy respectively. Only 39 pts(5%) were enrolled on a clinical trial. The median survival for pts with a GBM was 7.4 months with a 3% five-year survival. Conclusions: This is one of the largest ever-reported glioma management surveys. Much of the patient demographics and approach to treatment were expected and represent a reasonable “standard of care”. Importantly, this study emphasises the elderly nature of this patient population and identifies areas of concern including: absence of histologic diagnosis, lack of multi-disciplinary care and low clinical trial enrolment.

No significant financial relationships to disclose.

In situ and small invasive breast cancer register in Victoria, 1988 to 1992: Tumour characteristics and patient management

BACKGROUND

All cases of in situ and invasive breast cancer are reported to the Victorian Cancer Registry. In 1988 a special subregister of all cases of carcinoma in situ and small invasive cancers up to 10 mm in size was established--the In situ and Small Invasive Breast Cancer Register (ISSIBCR). This was unique in being a population-based register and only possible because in Victoria, as in some other Australian states, all cancers including in situ disease are reported to the Central Cancer Registry.

METHODS

Between 1 January 1988 and 31 December 1992, 517 cases of in situ cancers and 892 invasive cancers of < or =10 mm in diameter were registered. During the study period, mammography screening was progressively introduced in Victoria and the number of cases, in both categories registered annually, doubled.

RESULTS

The method of detection, the pathology and treatment of these lesions are described. It is of interest that 46.5% of the in situ cancers and 68.8% of the invasive cancers were detected either by the patient or her doctor on clinical examination. Total mastectomy was the method of treatment in 35.4% of in situ cancers and 42.0% of small invasive tumours. Only 38.0% of patients with small invasive cancers treated by breast-conserving surgery had irradiation of the affected breast.

CONCLUSIONS

This register provides a valuable resource for the follow up of the natural history and outcome of treatment of the affected women.

Incidence of malignant disease in biopsy-proven inflammatory myopathy. A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The validity and magnitude of an association between myositis and malignant disease continue to be debated. Such issues as the legitimacy of a myositis diagnosis and distinction among myositis subgroups in previous population-based studies remain unresolved.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the risk for malignant disease in patients with biopsy-proven inflammatory myopathies.

DESIGN

Population-based, retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Victoria, Australia.

PATIENTS

537 patients in whom a biopsy-positive idiopathic inflammatory myopathy was first diagnosed from 1981 through 1995.

MEASUREMENTS

Standardized incidence ratios were calculated to compare the incidence of malignant disease in patients with inflammatory myopathy and the general population.

RESULTS

A total of 116 cases of malignant disease were found in 104 patients. Seventy-four cases were identified concurrently with (within 7 days) or after diagnosis of myositis. The highest risk for malignant disease was associated with dermatomyositis (standardized incidence ratio, 6.2 [95% CI, 3.9 to 10.0]). The risk was also increased in polymyositis (standardized incidence ratio, 2.0 [CI, 1.4 to 2.7]), although the relative risk for malignant disease in dermatomyositis compared with polymyositis was 2.4 (CI, 1.3 to 4.2). An increased risk for malignant disease was also found in inclusion-body myositis (standardized incidence ratio, 2.4 [CI, 1.2 to 4.9]). The excess risk for malignant disease diminished with time (standardized incidence ratio, 4.4 [CI, 2.7 to 7.1] in the first year; 3.4 [CI, 2.3 to 5.1] between 1 and 3 years; 2.2 [CI, 1.3 to 3.9] between 3 and 5 years; and 1.6 [CI, 1.0 to 2.6] beyond 5 years [ P for trend, 0.002]).

CONCLUSION

The risk for malignant disease is increased in biopsy-proven dermatomyositis and polymyositis and also appears to be increased in inclusion-body myositis.

The body site distribution of melanocytic naevi in 6-7 year old European children

The number and size of melanocytic naevi are the main predictors of cutaneous melanoma. Naevus development per unit of skin surface is greatest during childhood. We assessed the body distribution of naevi 2-4.9 mm and > or = 5 mm in 649 European children aged 6-7 years old from Brussels (Belgium), Bochum (Germany), Lyon (France) and Rome (Italy). The numbers of naevi 2-4.9 mm and naevi > or = 5 mm were strongly correlated, especially on the trunk. For naevi 2-4.9 mm, the highest relative densities were found on the face, back, shoulders and the external surface of the arms. The lowest relative densities were found on the hands, legs, feet and abdomen. The relative density of naevi > or = 5 mm was higher on the trunk than on any other body site. Similar body distributions were observed in both sexes and at each centre. The body site distribution of naevi 2-4.9 mm seemed to parallel the usual sun exposure patterns of young European children. It is suggested that the development of naevi > or = 5 mm might be a marker of the vulnerability of melanocytes to the harmful effects of solar radiation. Vulnerability would be maximal on the back, and would decrease from proximal to distal skin areas, with melanocytes of the hands and feet having the lowest vulnerability. The number of naevi acquired on a specific area of skin would result from the combined effects of local vulnerability to solar radiation and local sun exposure history. The origin of acquired body site differences in the susceptibility of melanocytes to ultraviolet radiation is unknown, although it seems to parallel the body site density of sensory innervation.

The Anti Cancer Council of Victoria FFQ: relative validity of nutrient intakes compared with weighed food records in young to middle-aged women in a study of iron supplementation

OBJECTIVE

To assess the validity of the Anti Cancer Council of Victoria food frequency questionnaire (ACCVFFQ) relative to seven-day weighed food records (WFRs) in 63 women of child-bearing age.

METHOD

63 women completed WFRs to assess iron intake as part of a study on iron deficiency. These women also completed the ACCVFFQ. Nutrient intakes were computed independently for the WFRs and FFQs. Intakes were compared as group means, by correlation and by quintile classification, adjusting for day-to-day variation in intakes, and for energy intake. Individual differences in results were also examined.

RESULTS

The strongest associations between WFR and FFQ results were energy-adjusted, log-transformed and adjusted for day-to-day variability in intake. Correlation coefficients ranged from 0.28 for vitamin A to 0.78 for carbohydrate. Mean intakes from the WFRs and FFQs were within +/- 20% for 21 of 27 nutrients. Poor agreement between FFQs and WFRs for retinol intake was due to the inclusion of liver in two WFRs, an item which is not included in the FFQ.

CONCLUSION

The ACCVFFQ performs as well as other FFQs for which validation data are available. The relatively poor measurement of retinol is consistent with other data, and with the limited number of foods in which this nutrient is abundant.

IMPLICATIONS

The availability of an optically scannable valid instrument for assessing dietary intake will facilitate epidemiological studies of diet and disease, an area of current research priority.

Report on accreditation learning sets in the West Midlands region of the NHS

This article reports on the evaluation of the first year of a project, which utilized learning sets to support librarians undergoing the accreditation process, in the health libraries in the West Midlands region of the NHS. The West Midlands Health region is divided up into education consortia patches. Each group of patch librarians was allocated a local accreditation facilitator. The groups met regularly to discuss problems and progress relating to their library's accreditation. The results of the evaluation suggest that this is a valuable approach to use. The recommendations state that regular, frequent meetings are needed. Extra training and guidance would help the facilitators to be more effective in their role.

Risk of cancer after use of fertility drugs with in-vitro fertilisation

BACKGROUND

We investigated the incidence of invasive cancer of the breast, ovary, and uterus in a cohort of patients who had undergone in-vitro-fertilisation (IVF) treatment and examined whether cause of infertility or exposure to fertility drugs to induce superovulation was associated with an increased cancer risk.

METHOD

Ten Australian IVF clinics provided data for women who had been referred for IVF before Jan 1, 1994. The frequencies of invasive breast, ovarian, and uterine cancer were assessed by record linkage to population-based cancer registries and the national death index. The observed number of cancers was compared with the expected number calculated by application of age-standardised general-population cancer rates to the cohort. Standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) were derived from the ratio of observed to expected cases.

FINDINGS

The cohort consisted of 29,700 women: 20,656 were exposed to fertility drugs and 9044 were not. 143 breast cancers, 13 ovarian cancers, and 12 cancers of the uterus occurred among these women. For breast and ovarian cancer the incidence was no greater than expected (SIR 0.91 [95% CI 0.74-1.13] for breast cancer and 0.88 [0.42-1.84] for ovarian cancer in the exposed group and 0.95 [0.73-1.23] for breast cancer and 1.16 [0.52-2.59] for ovarian cancer in the unexposed group). The incidence of uterine cancer was no higher than expected in the exposed group (1.09 [0.45-2.61]) but was significantly higher in the unexposed group (2.47 [1.18-5.18]). Women with unexplained infertility had significantly more cancers of the ovary and uterus than expected (2.64 [1.10-6.35] and 4.59 [1.91-11.0], whole cohort). Analysis of cancer incidence within 12 months of exposure to fertility drugs with IVF showed that incidence was significantly higher than expected for breast and uterine cancer (1.96 [1.22-3.15] and 4.96 [1.24-19.8]).

INTERPRETATION

Women who have been exposed to fertility drugs with IVF seem to have a transient increase in the risk of having breast or uterine cancer diagnosed in the first year after treatment, though the incidence overall is no greater than expected. Unexplained infertility was associated with an increased risk of a diagnosis of ovarian or uterine cancer.

A case-control study of melanomas of the soles and palms (Australia and Scotland)

OBJECTIVES

Because the factors that influence risk of acral melanomas on the soles and palms in White populations are unknown, we investigated these in a multi-center case-control study.

METHODS

Cases of melanoma of the feet and hands diagnosed from 1987-93 in persons aged over 18 years were ascertained in eastern Australia and western Scotland. There were 275 cases of melanoma on the soles and palms matched to 496 controls (selected from the electoral roll) in Australia, and 36 cases matched to 72 controls (nominated by general practitioners) in Scotland.

RESULTS

Acral melanoma was strongly associated with high total body nevus counts (adjusted relative risk [RR] = 6.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.5-15.6), and with nevi on the soles (RR = 7.5, CI = 3.0-18.6). There were also significant positive associations with a penetrative injury of the feet or hands (RR = 5.0, CI = 3.0-8.6) and with heavy exposure to agricultural chemicals (RR = 3.6, CI = 1.5-8.3). Sun-sensitive complexions, cumulative sun exposure and a past history of nonmelanoma skin cancer were also associated with increased risk of acral melanoma. Current cigarette smoking was inversely related to acral melanoma (RR = 0.6, CI = 0.4-0.9).

CONCLUSIONS

Melanomas of the soles and palms resemble other cutaneous melanomas in their association with sun exposure, but are distinguished from them by their strong positive associations with nevi on the soles, previous penetrative injury, and exposure to agricultural chemicals, and by their inverse association with smoking.

Trends in the incidence of non-melanocytic skin cancer (NMSC) treated in Australia 1985-1995: are primary prevention programs starting to have an effect?

Non-melanocytic skin cancer (NMSC) is the most common cancer in Australia, but data on its incidence are not routinely collected by cancer registries. National surveys were conducted in 1985, 1990 and 1995 to estimate NMSC incidence. Trends in incidence between 1985 and 1995 have been examined to determine the impact of primary prevention campaigns aimed at controlling skin cancer in Australia. National random household surveys of Australians aged over 13 years were used to estimate NMSC incidence in 1985, 1990 and 1995. Age- and sex-specific rates by survey year were modelled using Poisson regression. Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) rates in 1995 were 788 per 100,000, an increase of 19% since 1985. Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) rates rose by 93% over the same period, from 166 to 321 per 100,000. The ratio of BCC:SCC changed from 4:1 in 1985 to 2.5:1 in 1995. BCC rates in latitudes <29 degrees S remained at about 3 times those in latitudes >37 degrees S over the decade. The ratio of SCC incidence between these latitudes changed from around 7:1 to 3:1 over the same period. Although NMSC incidence rates continue to rise, there have been reductions in BCC observed in younger age groups. Incidence rates of NMSC continue to rise in Australia, but there is evidence of a reduction in BCC incidence in younger cohorts. This is evidence that public health campaigns to reduce sun exposure may be having a beneficial effect on skin cancer rates.

Risk factors associated with hepatocellular carcinoma notified to the Anti-Cancer Council of Victoria in 1991-1992

The study aimed to estimate the prevalence of risk factors for liver disease, particularly hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, in a population-based series of hepatocellular carcinoma, and to assess the feasibility of retrospective surveys in determining risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma. A survey of all cases of hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosed in 1991 and 1992 documented the high contribution of alcoholic cirrhosis, particularly in Australian-born men. Low levels of testing for HBV and HCV made their contribution to hepatocellular carcinoma uncertain. No cases of hepatocellular carcinoma due to HBV or HCV were reported in Australian-born subjects. Higher rates of HBV carriage in those tested were found in Asian and Mediterranean immigrants. Testing for HCV was known to have occurred for less than a quarter of subjects, and assessment for multiple aetiological risk factors was rare. The burgeoning epidemic of HCV will require improved surveillance for the sequelae of long-term infection. Satisfactory surveillance will require cooperation from clinicians in regard to the completeness of medical records and adequate resources for cancer registries to supplement their passive reporting system with exposure data.

Diet, nutrition and prostate cancer

Although much has been written, little is known about the causes of prostate cancer. Variations between populations in the incidence of invasive cancers, together with changes in the incidence of invasive cancers in migrants, have pointed to environmental (lifestyle) factors that might be amenable to intervention. Conversely, there is a lack of international variation in the prevalence of microscopic tumours, so the essential question is: what causes only some of the common microscopic tumours to become aggressive? Dietary factors hold the most promise in this regard and have been the subject of recent reviews. The strongest and most consistent effects are positive associations with animal products such as red meats, eggs and dairy foods, and possibly by implication, fat. Evidence of a protective effect of fruit and vegetables is weak and inconsistent, as is the relationship with vitamin A and carotenoids, such as beta-carotene. There are some interesting leads. Lycopene, the carotenoid found in tomatoes, has been reported to be protective; alpha-tocopherol supplementation has shown a protective effect in one intervention study; and vitamin D has been shown to be protective in a prospective study. Interest is also growing in phytoestrogens and the extent to which dietary manipulation with these and other phytochemicals might influence prostate cancer by modifying male sex hormone levels or actions. There is limited evidence of associations with obesity. It is not known whether these are related to a particular dietary pattern or to possible physiological effects on the male's hormonal milieu. Associations with lean body mass are likely to be related to the action of androgens during growth and development. Dietary and nutritional effects on prostate cancer do not appear to be strong, but they may be subtle and attenuated by measurement error. To explore these aspects further will require large prospective studies that include improved (repeated) dietary measurements and also blood sampling, so that genetic polymorphisms can be adequately investigated. Such studies are underway.

Occurrence of melanomas on the upper and lower limbs in eastern Australia

In view of the changing trends in the incidence of melanoma at different body sites and in particular on the limbs, the detailed distributions of over 10,000 invasive melanomas diagnosed on the upper and lower limbs in residents of mainland eastern Australia between 1987 and 1993 were examined. Cancer notifications and histopathology reports from the cancer registries of Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria were searched manually, and subsites when specified were recorded as shoulder, upper arm, forearm, elbow, wrist or hand, and thigh, leg, knee, ankle or foot. On the upper limbs relative tumour densities were highest on the shoulder, approximately equal on the upper arm and forearm and least on the hand in both men and women; on the lower limbs melanomas occurred more than twice as often on the leg than on the thigh or the foot, taking account of surface area. There was a clear inverse gradient of incidence of melanoma with latitude in the three eastern Australian states studied, but little difference between the states or between sexes in distribution of histological type: the majority specified being specified as superficial spreading melanomas. In contrast to predictions based on apparent frequency of sun exposure at subsites on the upper limbs, the relative concentration of melanomas on the shoulder suggests that wearing sleeveless garments outdoors in the sun should be avoided whenever possible. Also, the similar densities of leg and forearm melanomas seems inconsistent with the relative degree of exposure of each and further suggests that women's adoption of ankle-length skirts or trousers, in preference to knee-length skirts would be a worthwhile modern control measure.

Recurrent nonmelanoma skin cancer in southern Australia

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

In retrospective studies of non-melanoma skin cancers, the recurrence rates were relatively high. This study had as its aim to determine the recurrence rate of nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) and prospectively, risk factors for recurrence in southern Australia.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a prospective study of outpatients with histologically confirmed NMSC. All patients seen by a dermatologist between November 1988 and November 1989 were entered into the study and followed for at least 3 years. Any recurrent NMSCS were removed and recorded.

RESULTS

Four hundred and eighty-one patients were entered and 420 followed for at least 3 years. A recurrent NMSC developed in 8% (adjusted for losses). A multivariate analysis determined that the main risk factor for recurrence within the first 3 years of follow-up was the number of NMSC a patient had when entering into the study. Those with 3 to nine NMSC were five times more likely to develop a recurrence than those with less than three NMSC. Those with 10 or more NMSC were 25 times more likely to develop a recurrence. Age, sex, and types of skin cancers removed were not risk factors within the first 3 years of follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Patients who have had multiple skin cancers require careful follow-up because of the risk of developing recurrences.

Childhood cancer in Victoria, Australia, 1970-1989

The incidence of cancer between 1970 and 1989 in children aged less than 15 years and resident in the state of Victoria, Australia, was ascertained using records held by the Victorian Cancer Registry. Altogether, 1,189 children in the 1970s and 1,261 children in the 1980s were registered with new diagnoses of cancer and these were followed up until 30 June 1993. Between 1970-1979 and 1980-1989 the incidence of childhood cancer rose by 14%, but this was not statistically significant. Part of this apparent increase may have been due to improved registration of cases in the 1980s, particularly of certain tumour types, and of tumours in older children who may have been treated outside the major paediatric treatment centres. Between the 2 decades, 5-year survival increased from 49% to 67%, with improvements in almost all tumour types. Only in Ewing's sarcoma did survival proportions decrease, and this may be related to histological misclassification and to an increased proportion of Ewing's arising in the pelvis during the 1980s. There is evidence already that with new treatment regimens introduced during the 1980s survival in the 1990s will show increased gains.

Multiple primary melanomas: an analysis of cancer registry data from Victoria and New South Wales

All primary invasive cutaneous malignant melanomas (CMM) diagnosed in Victoria and New South Wales from 1985 to 1989 were obtained from the population-based cancer registries. Altogether 14,590 people with first CMMs were followed for at least 2 years, during which time 496 multiple primary CMMs were identified. Of the study population, 3.4% developed a second primary CMM and 0.3% developed three or more. It was estimated that 4.5% of people would develop a second CMM within 5 years of the first and that the risk was higher in males, particularly in men aged over 70 years. With regard to metachronous primaries, only age and thickness of the first primary were significant predictors of the thickness of the second: older people tended to have thicker CMMs and second CMMs were generally thinner than the first. Body site concordance was higher than expected by chance, particularly for synchronous diagnoses. The high degree of site concordance of metachronous primaries lent support to the hypothesis that skin adjacent to the first CMM might have undergone a 'field effect', rendering it at increased susceptibility to malignancy.

Breast and ovarian cancer incidence after infertility and in vitro fertilisation

Concern has been expressed that exposure to fertility drugs might be associated with a risk of ovarian cancer. We have examined the incidence of breast and ovarian cancer in a cohort of 10,358 women referred for in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) treatment in Victoria, Australia, between 1978 and 1992. The "exposed" group (n = 5564) had had ovarian stimulation to induce multiple folliculogenesis and the "unexposed" group (n = 4794) had been referred for IVF but were untreated or had had "natural cycle" treatment without ovarian stimulation. Duration of follow-up ranged from 1 to 15 years. Cases of cancer were determined by record linkage with data from population-based cancer registries. 34 cases of invasive breast cancer and 6 of invasive ovarian cancer were observed. A comparison with the expected numbers, derived by applying age-standardised general population rates to the cohort gave standardised incidence ratios (SIR) for breast cancer of 0.89 (95% CI 0.55-1.46) in the exposed group and 0.98 (0.62-1.56) in the unexposed group, and for ovarian cancer SIRs were 1.70 (0.55-5.27) and 1.62 (0.52-5.02), respectively. Rates of all cancers were not significantly different from general population rates. The relative risk (RR) of cancer, adjusted for age and infertility type, was, in the treated group compared with the untreated group, 1.11 (95% CI 0.56-2.20) for breast cancer and 1.45 (0.28-7.55) for ovarian cancer. The risk of body of uterus cancer was increased in the exposed and unexposed groups combined (SIR 2.84 [1.18-6.81]). Women with unexplained infertility, independent of IVF exposure, had significantly increased risks of ovarian cancer (RR = 19.19 [2.23-165.0]) and body of uterus cancer (RR = 6.34 [1.06-38.0]) compared with women with known causes of infertility. This relatively short-term follow-up suggests that ovarian stimulation with IVF is not associated with an increased risk of breast cancer. Although there was no significantly increased risk of ovarian cancer after ovarian stimulation with IVF the small number of cases limits the conclusions that can be drawn. Longer-term follow-up of large cohorts of women who have been in IVF programmes will be necessary.

Cervical cytology reported as negative and risk of adenocarcinoma of the cervix: no strong evidence of benefit

The relationship between negative cervical cytology reports and risk of adenocarcinoma of the cervix was evaluated in a case-control study of 113 cases and 452 controls. All cases and controls had received at least two negative cytology reports. There was no significant difference between the cases and controls in the number of negative cytology reports or in history of cervical abnormality; while a test for trend in the time since last negative cytology report was significant (P < 0.001), the estimated benefit was very modest. Although the estimates of relative protection were higher in women aged less than 35 years than in women aged 35-69 years, this difference was not statistically significant. These results suggest that cervical screening as practised in the 1970s and 1980s was much less effective in preventing adenocarcinoma than squamous carcinoma of the cervix.

Determinants of serum levels of retinol, β-carotene and α-tocopherol in men and women born in Australia, Greece and Italy

Serum retinol, β-carotene and α-tocopherol levels were measured in a volunteer sample of 764 Australian-, Greek- and Italian-born adult residents of Melbourne, Australia. There was no difference among the ethnic groups in mean levels of serum retinol or α-tocopherol. Mean β-carotene levels were between 11 and 22% higher for Australian-born subjects. Serum β-carotene was higher in females, retinol was higher in males. The serum levels of retinol, β-carotene and α-tocopherol were significantly positively associated with serum cholesterol. Serum triglyceride was positively associated with serum retinol and α-tocopherol but negatively associated with serum -β-carotene. A positive association with retinol and an inverse association with β-carotene was found for alcohol consumption. Serum α-tocopherol was positively associated with dietary vitamin E. Serum β-carotene was correlated with carotene intake among subjects who had never smoked. Serum retinol increased with age in women only. These data provide a degree of cross-cultural robustness to previous findings in regard to the determinants of serum retinol, β-carotene and α-tocopherol in healthy men and women.

Cutaneous malignant melanoma in Australia, 1989

OBJECTIVE

To describe the characteristics of cutaneous malignant melanoma in Australians in 1989. DESIGN AND DATA: Descriptive analysis of all invasive melanomas reported to State or Territory cancer registries in 1989.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The age, sex and State or Territory of residence of affected individuals, and the topography, morphology and thickness of the melanoma.

RESULTS

The age-standardised incidence rates of melanoma were 30.2 and 23.9 per 100,000 males and females respectively; the highest rates were observed for the male trunk (11.7 per 100,000) and female lower limbs (8.8 per 100,000); the most commonly specified morphology was superficial spreading melanoma, followed by nodular melanoma and lentigo malignant melanoma. Fifty-two per cent of melanomas of known thickness were thinner than 0.76 mm, with females having proportionally more thin melanomas than males, and males having twice the rate of melanomas thicker than 3 mm. Melanoma rates in northern latitudes were approximately double those further south.

CONCLUSIONS

Distinct patterns of melanoma incidence by latitude and body site confirm the role of sunlight exposure in melanoma aetiology. Females often have thinner melanomas than males, which is reflected in their better prognosis. People living closer to the equator more often have level 1 (in situ) and thin invasive melanoma, probably related to increased awareness of melanoma risk with decreasing latitude. The collection of melanoma data would be improved if pathologists' reports routinely included melanoma site, morphology, level and thickness. All registries should collect data on level 1 melanomas to help evaluate early melanoma detection programs and to continue surveillance of the Australian skin cancer epidemic.

Development of the Melbourne FFQ: a food frequency questionnaire for use in an Australian prospective study involving an ethnically diverse cohort

Objective. To develop an optically scannable food frequency questionnaire (FFQ), 'The Melbourne FFQ', suitable for classifying Australian-, Greek- and Italian-born individuals into quantiles of intake for a range of foods and nutrients. The FFQ would provide the primary measure of dietary exposure in a prospective cohort study. Design. The FFQ was modelled on that used for the (US) Nurses' Health Study. Food items were chosen on the basis of their relative contribution to the intake of a range of nutrients computed from weighed food records. Setting. Metropolitan Melbourne, Australia, a city of 3 million people, of whom 75.5% were born in Australia, 2.7% were born in Italy and 1.7% were born in Greece. Participants. Weighed Food Survey (1987-1989): A volunteer sample of 810 healthy middle-aged (40-69 years) men and women of whom 35% were born in Greece, 33% were born in Italy, and 32% were born in Australia. Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (1990-1993): A volunteer sample of 17 949 healthy men and women aged between 40 and 69 years of whom 61% were born in Australia, 21% were born in Italy and 17% were born in Greece. Results. A 121 item FFQ was developed, together with a customized nutrient database. The optical scanning format was generally well received with the majority of subjects requiring no assistance. The FFQ appeared to overestimate the consumption of fruit and vegetables. Conclusions. The Melbourne FFQ provides a convenient method of measuring habitual dietary intake in a large population setting. A separate study is required to assess how well the instrument characterizes diet at the level of the individual.

The development of non-melanocytic skin cancers in people with a history of skin cancer

OBJECTIVE

To determine the incidence of new skin cancer formation in people who have had skin cancer removed.

STUDY DESIGN

A prospective study of Melbourne out-patients with histologically confirmed non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC). All patients with NMSC seen by one author (D.C.) between November 1988 and November 1989 were entered into the study and reviewed regularly. New skin cancers were removed and recorded.

RESULTS

Four hundred and eighty-one patients were entered and 420 followed for at least 3 years. New NMSC developed in 60% (adjusted for losses) by the end of 3 years. A multivariate analysis determined that the main risk factor for new NMSC formation was the number of previous skin cancers that a patient had. Those who had had multiple skin cancers (3 or more) were at significantly greater risk than those with less than 3. Age, sex and type of NMSC were not risk factors for new skin cancer formation.

CONCLUSION

Patients with NMSC require long-term follow-up because of the risk of new skin cancer formation. Those with multiple NMSC need more careful follow-up, and possibly more frequent examinations, because they are at greater risk.

Metastases from squamous cell carcinoma of the skin in southern Australia

BACKGROUND

The frequency with which squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the skin metastasizes is a matter of dispute. Studies from private practices have reported much lower rates than hospital-based surveys, and one school of thought is that SCCs which arise in sun-damaged skin have a low risk of metastasis.

METHODS

A prospective study of out-patients with histologically confirmed SCC was undertaken in southern Australia, a region with a very high incidence of skin cancer.

RESULTS

Between November 1988 and November 1989, 481 patients were entered into the study and 420 followed for at least 3 years. An SCC was the initial diagnosis for 73 patients, 3 were immunosuppressed and 2 had an SCC of the lip, leaving 68 immunocompetent patients with SCC of the skin. Metastatic SCC developed in 2 patients (5.8% adjusted for losses) within 3 years. The SCCs were small and arose in sun-damaged skin.

CONCLUSION

Patients with SCC of the skin need a careful follow-up because of the risk of metastasis.