More frequent, persistent, and deadly heat waves in the 21st century over the Eastern Mediterranean

Heat waves are extreme events characterized by sweltering weather over an extended period. Skillful projections of heat waves and their impacts on human mortality can help develop appropriate adaptation strategies. Here, we provide nuanced projections of heat wave characteristics and their effect on human mortality over the Eastern Mediterranean based on ERA5 reanalysis and CORDEX ensemble simulations. Heat waves were identified according to the 90th percentile threshold of the Climatic Stress Index (CSI), specifically tailored for the summer conditions in this region. We provide evidence that heat waves in the region are projected to occur seven times more often and last three times longer by the end of the 21st century (RCP8.5). We find that heat waves will become more persistent in a warmer world. Finally, we offer a conservative estimate of excess mortality in Israel based on a simple linear model. The projected changes in heat stress intensity and frequency may result in ~330 excess deaths per summer at the end of the 21st century (RCP8.5) compared to the historical baseline of ~30 heat-related deaths, particularly pronounced in the elderly (65+ years). We conclude that heat waves increasingly threaten society in the vulnerable Eastern Mediterranean. We also emphasize that true interdisciplinary regional collaborations are required to achieve adequate public health adaptation to extreme weather events in a changing climate.

Nonlinear plant-plant interactions modulate impact of extreme drought and recovery on a Mediterranean ecosystem

Interaction effects of different stressors, such as extreme drought and plant invasion, can have detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning and recovery after drought. With ongoing climate change and increasing plant invasion, there is an urgent need to predict the short- and long-term interaction impacts of these stressors on ecosystems. We established a combined precipitation exclusion and shrub invasion (Cistus ladanifer) experiment in a Mediterranean cork oak (Quercus suber) ecosystem with four treatments: (1) Q. suber control; (2) Q. suber with rain exclusion; (3) Q. suber invaded by shrubs; and (4) Q. suber with rain exclusion and shrub invasion. As key parameter, we continuously measured ecosystem water fluxes. In an average precipitation year, the interaction effects of both stressors were neutral. However, the combination of imposed drought and shrub invasion led to amplifying interaction effects during an extreme drought by strongly reducing tree transpiration. Contrarily, the imposed drought reduced the competitiveness of the shrubs in the following recovery period, which buffered the negative effects of shrub invasion on Q. suber. Our results demonstrate the highly dynamic and nonlinear effects of interacting stressors on ecosystems and urges for further investigations on biotic interactions in a context of climate change pressures.

The relationship between cyclonic weather regimes and seasonal influenza over the Eastern Mediterranean

The prediction of the occurrence of infectious diseases is of crucial importance for public health, as clearly seen in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we analyze the relationship between the occurrence of a winter low-pressure weather regime - Cyprus Lows - and the seasonal Influenza in the Eastern Mediterranean. We find that the weekly occurrence of Cyprus Lows is significantly correlated with clinical seasonal Influenza in Israel in recent years (R = 0.91; p < .05). This result remains robust when considering a complementary analysis based on Google Trends data for Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Jordan. The weekly occurrence of Cyprus Lows precedes the onset and maximum of Influenza occurrence by about one to two weeks (R = 0.88; p < .05 for the maximum occurrence), and closely follows their timing in eight out of ten years (2008-2017). Since weather regimes such as Cyprus Lows are more robustly predicted in weather and climate models than individual climate variables, we conclude that the weather regime approach can be used to develop tools for estimating the compatibility of the transmission environment for Influenza occurrence in a warming world. Furthermore, this approach may be applied to other regions and climate sensitive diseases. This study is a new cross-border inter-disciplinary regional collaboration for appropriate adaptation to climate change in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Wind Power Persistence Characterized by Superstatistics

Mitigating climate change demands a transition towards renewable electricity generation, with wind power being a particularly promising technology. Long periods either of high or of low wind therefore essentially define the necessary amount of storage to balance the power system. While the general statistics of wind velocities have been studied extensively, persistence (waiting) time statistics of wind is far from well understood. Here, we investigate the statistics of both high- and low-wind persistence. We find heavy tails and explain them as a superposition of different wind conditions, requiring q-exponential distributions instead of exponential distributions. Persistent wind conditions are not necessarily caused by stationary atmospheric circulation patterns nor by recurring individual weather types but may emerge as a combination of multiple weather types and circulation patterns. This also leads to Fréchet instead of Gumbel extreme value statistics. Understanding wind persistence statistically and synoptically may help to ensure a reliable and economically feasible future energy system, which uses a high share of wind generation.

Impact of climate change on backup energy and storage needs in wind-dominated power systems in Europe

The high temporal variability of wind power generation represents a major challenge for the realization of a sustainable energy supply. Large backup and storage facilities are necessary to secure the supply in periods of low renewable generation, especially in countries with a high share of renewables. We show that strong climate change is likely to impede the system integration of intermittent wind energy. To this end, we analyze the temporal characteristics of wind power generation based on high-resolution climate projections for Europe and uncover a robust increase of backup energy and storage needs in most of Central, Northern and North-Western Europe. This effect can be traced back to an increase of the likelihood for long periods of low wind generation and an increase in the seasonal wind variability.

Perspectives of regional paleoclimate modeling

Regional climate modeling bridges the gap between the coarse resolution of current global climate models and the regional‐to‐local scales, where the impacts of climate change are of primary interest. Here, we present a review of the added value of the regional climate modeling approach within the scope of paleoclimate research and discuss the current major challenges and perspectives. Two time periods serve as an example: the Holocene, including the Last Millennium, and the Last Glacial Maximum. Reviewing the existing literature reveals the benefits of regional paleo climate modeling, particularly over areas with complex terrain. However, this depends largely on the variable of interest, as the added value of regional modeling arises from a more realistic representation of physical processes and climate feedbacks compared to global climate models, and this affects different climate variables in various ways. In particular, hydrological processes have been shown to be better represented in regional models, and they can deliver more realistic meteorological data to drive ice sheet and glacier modeling. Thus, regional climate models provide a clear benefit to answer fundamental paleoclimate research questions and may be key to advance a meaningful joint interpretation of climate model and proxy data.

Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates

Extreme drought events and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning and alter ecosystem-atmosphere exchange. Invaders are expanding worldwide and extreme drought events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. However, very little is known on how these drivers may interact to affect the functioning and resilience of ecosystems to extreme events. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that native shrub invasion and extreme drought synergistically reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of key-stone oak tree species. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub Cistus ladanifer, which further increased after the extreme drought event. Meanwhile, the transpiration of key-stone tree species decreased, indicating a competitive advantage in favour of the invader. Our results suggest that in Mediterranean-type climates the invasion of water spending species and projected recurrent extreme drought events may synergistically cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of key-stone tree species to be surpassed, corroborating observed higher tree mortality in the invaded ecosystems. Ultimately, this may shift seasonally water limited ecosystems into less desirable alternative states dominated by water spending invasive shrubs.

Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions

The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.

Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO(2) may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

[Hypocholesterolemic effect of naringin and rutin flavonoids]

Flavonoids are pigments fenolics of plants that possess several biological activities, and many of these are associated with prevention of chronic diseases as cancer and hyperlipidemia. This work had as objective evaluates the effect of the flavonoids naringin and rutin on the metabolism lipidic of chicks hypercholesterolemic. In agreement with the results it can be observed that naringin and rutin reduced the levels of total cholesterol significantly, cholesterol-LDL, cholesterol-VLDL and triglycerols, not presenting, however, reductions in the levels of cholesterol-HDL.

Fatigue model to characterize cement-metal interface in dynamic shear

This study evaluated the interface shear strength between vacuum mixed polymethyl-methacrylate and two types of surface enhancements under static and dynamic shear loading. Cobalt chrome coupons with grit blasted or light plasma sprayed surfaces were tested. For each test, two coupons were mounted in a stainless steel chamber such that they were bonded with a 2-mm cement mantle for each test. Pullout and dynamic fatigue tests were performed on an Instron machine. The mean static pullout strength of the grit blasted surfaces was 13.78 (+/- 2.73) MPa, whereas that of the light plasma sprayed surfaces was 18.46 (+/- 1.98) MPa. The rate of degradation of interface strength caused by fatigue was almost identical for both surface treatments. Qualitative analysis showed that the failed light plasma sprayed surface generated more metal and cement particles. These data suggest that light plasma sprayed surfaces sustain higher loads but have a potential for increased debris generation.

Polyethylene wear debris in modular acetabular prostheses

The longevity of total hip arthroplasty has brought forth the recognition of aseptic loosening of prosthetic components as the leading cause of implant failure. Modularity of implants, although a significant improvement in versatility, may increase debris formation, a recognized cause of implant failure. This study was designed to measure the relative motion, and to assess the polyethylene wear debris production at the interface between the metal acetabular shell and the back side of the polyethylene liner, in modular hip prostheses. Five models from 4 manufacturers with different locking mechanisms and acetabular shell surface treatments were tested under long-term simultaneous sinusoidal and static loading (10(7) cycles at 3 Hz with +/- 2.5 Nmeter and 220 N static load). Results showed that there were marked differences in the security of the acetabular shell and polyethylene liner locking mechanism, wear pattern, damage sites, and amount of polyethylene debris on the acetabular shell and polyethylene liner surfaces. The range of polyethylene liner motion observed among the 5 models during 1 cycle of testing varied from an average of 0.96 degrees to movement too small to be detected by the test machines. Image and scanning electron microscopy analysis showed different wear patterns and a wide range in the average polyethylene liner surface wear area (0.26 cm2-4.61 cm2). In general, a stable locking mechanism and a smooth acetabular shell surface are essential in minimizing polyethylene liner wear and polyethylene debris production.

A method to characterize the passive elasticity in contracting muscle bundles

There is concern among researchers whether the passive muscle properties, characterized by purely passive material testing procedures, are an appropriate representation of the actual passive component of the muscle. This aspect is of particular importance in the biomechanical analysis of heart muscle response where it is generally agreed that the so-called parallel elasticity cannot be ignored as is done justifiably in the analysis of skeletal muscle response. In the present article, a method of quantifying the passive elasticity in contracting muscle bundles is presented. The method consists of imposing isometric transients (such as the quick-stretch or quick release) on a muscle bundle during the contraction phase and observing the differences in decayed force levels between a normal twitch and that of a perturbed twitch. The proposed method provides a means of obtaining useful passive properties from contracting muscle bundles and circumvents the difficulty of having to characterize muscle properties from separate experiments on quiescent muscle bundles.

Isotropy and anisotropy of the arterial wall

The passive biomechanical response of intact cylindrical rat carotid arteries is studied in vitro and compared with the mechanical response of rubber tubes. Using true stress and natural strain in the definition of the incremental modulus of elasticity, the tissue wall properties are analyzed over wide ranges of simultaneous circumferential and longitudinal deformations. The type of loading chosen is 'physiological' i.e. symmetric: the cylindrical segments are subjected to internal pressure and axial prestretch without torsion or shear. Several aspects pertaining to the choice of parameters characterizing the material are discussed and the analysis pertaining to the deformational behavior of a hypothetical compliant tube with Hookean wall material is presented. The experimental results show that while rubber response can be adequately represented as linearly elastic and isotropic, the overall response of vascular tissue is highly non-linear and anisotropic. However, for states of deformation that occur in vivo, the elasticity of arteries is quite similar to that of rubber tubes and as such the arterial wall may be viewed as incrementally isotropic for the range of deformations that occur in vivo.

A constitutive description of contracting papillary muscle and its implications to the dynamics of the intact heart

A simple mathematical model capable of simulating the major biomechanical attributes of contracting cardiac muscle is presented. This model is based on the phenomenological observations on heart muscle. The form of the equation can be readily extended to describe the pressure-volume-time-velocity of the intact heart as well, thus allowing a direct bridge between the dynamics of papillary muscle and the dynamics of intact heart. Parameters that are sensitive to inotropic state of the muscle can be obtained directly from the isometric tension-time record of the muscle or the isovolumic pressure-time record of the ventricle. These parameters have the potential to serve as quantitative measures of cardiac health.

Visco-elasticity of passive cardiac muscle

A quantitative mechanical description of the heart organ requires information on the mechanical behavior of its muscle in reasonable unity and completeness. In this respect, a fundamental constitutive law for soft biological tissures was proposed by Fung in 1972. This article presents evidence to show that Fung's law is a useful law to describe the mechanical behavior of heart muscle in the unstimulated (diastolic) state with sufficient generality. A visco-elastic relaxation phenomenon is studied in the isolated cardiac muscle of cat and rabbit with the purpose of constructing a mathematical model for relaxation. Experimental results show that passive relaxation behavior of heart muscle can be adequately described by a generalized standard linear solied with a continuous distribution of relaxation times. The form of the relaxation function devised permits the application of linear visco-elasticity theory to the nonlinear cardiac muscle. The relaxation model is used to predict the force-length (stress-strain) behavior of papillary muscle with reasonable accuracy.

Some mechanical considerations in the selection and testing of papillary muscles

Measurements of segmental deformation made on papillary muscles obtained from cat, rabbit, dog and pig hearts suggest that the deformational behavior in these specimens is appreciably nonuniform both in the resting (passive) state and in the stimulated (active) state. In view of this, in the mechanical testing of papillary muscles, it is necessary to establish a minimum size of segment "sufficiently" far from the disturbing influence of end fixtures generally used to hold the specimen in the testing machine. The segment size should be large enough to average out the nonuniform aspects of deformation. Thus, the shape and size of the specimen dictated by the nonuniformities in the mechanical response, the thinness of the specimen dictated by the viability considerations and aspects of the testing machines and method dictated by the visco-elastic features of the specimen should be given due consideration in the selection and testing of papillary muscles.

Non-uniform strain distribution in papillary muscles

Measurements of surface strains were made on small segments of intact papillary muscles of cats and rabbits. The measured strain is found to be non-uniform, both along the length and across the diameter of the papillary. This observation introduces difficulty in interpreting the data from experiments on the mechanics of the papillary muscle.

A device for testing mechanical properties of biological materials--the "Biodyne"

An electromechanical servo-controlled device has been developed. This device can be used to test the mechanical behavior of a wide variety of biological soft tissues. Control and execution of material testing procedures such as stress-strain, vibration, relaxation, creep etc. can be performed by manual operation of the device or by interfacing it with a laboratory type minicomputer. Experiments on excitable tissues such as muscle can also be executed. The design details and system performance are discussed.