Nephron Sparing Treatment (NEST) for Small Renal Masses: A Feasibility Cohort-embedded Randomised Controlled Trial Comparing Percutaneous Cryoablation and Robot-assisted Partial Nephrectomy

There is a paucity of high-level evidence on small renal mass (SRM) management, as previous classical randomised controlled trials (RCTs) failed to meet accrual targets. Our objective was to assess the feasibility of recruitment to a cohort-embedded RCT comparing cryoablation (CRA) to robotic partial nephrectomy (RPN). A total of 200 participants were recruited to the cohort, of whom 50 were enrolled in the RCT. In the CRA intervention arm, 84% consented (95% confidence interval [CI] 64-95%) and 76% (95% CI 55-91%) received CRA; 100% (95% CI 86-100%) of the control arm underwent RPN. The retention rate was 90% (95% CI 79-96%) at 6 mo. In the RPN group 2/25 (8%) were converted intra-operative to radical nephrectomy. Postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo grade 1-2) occurred in 12% of the CRA group and 29% of the RPN group. The median length of hospital stay was shorter for CRA (1 vs 2 d; p = 0.019). At 6 mo, the mean change in renal function was -5.0 ml/min/1.73 m2 after CRA and -5.8 ml/min/1.73 m2 after RPN. This study demonstrates the feasibility of a cohort-embedded RCT comparing CRA and RPN. These data can be used to inform multicentre trials on SRM management. PATIENT SUMMARY: We assessed whether patients with a small kidney tumour would consent to a trial comparing two different treatments: cryoablation (passing small needles through the skin to freeze the kidney tumour) and surgery to remove part of the kidney. We found that most patients agreed and a full trial would therefore be feasible.

The Role of Multiparametric MRI and MRI-targeted Biopsy in the Diagnosis of Radiorecurrent Prostate Cancer: An Analysis from the FORECAST Trial

BACKGROUND

The role of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for detecting recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate MRI and MRI-targeted biopsies for detecting intraprostatic cancer recurrence and planning for salvage focal ablation.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

FOcal RECurrent Assessment and Salvage Treatment (FORECAST; NCT01883128) was a prospective cohort diagnostic study that recruited 181 patients with suspected radiorecurrence at six UK centres (2014 to 2018); 144 were included here.

INTERVENTION

All patients underwent MRI with 5 mm transperineal template mapping biopsies; 84 had additional MRI-targeted biopsies. MRI scans with Likert scores of 3 to 5 were deemed suspicious.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

First, the diagnostic accuracy of MRI was calculated. Second, the pathological characteristics of MRI-detected and MRI-undetected tumours were compared using the Wilcoxon rank sum test and chi-square test for trend. Third, four biopsy strategies involving an MRI-targeted biopsy alone and with systematic biopsies of one to two other quadrants were studied. Fisher's exact test was used to compare MRI-targeted biopsy alone with the best other strategy for the number of patients with missed cancer and the number of patients with cancer harbouring additional tumours in unsampled quadrants. Analyses focused primarily on detecting cancer of any grade or length. Last, eligibility for focal therapy was evaluated for men with localised (≤T3bN0M0) radiorecurrent disease.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Of 144 patients, 111 (77%) had cancer detected on biopsy. MRI sensitivity and specificity at the patient level were 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.92 to 0.99) and 0.21 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.35), respectively. At the prostate quadrant level, 258/576 (45%) quadrants had cancer detected on biopsy. Sensitivity and specificity were 0.66 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.73) and 0.54 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.62), respectively. At the quadrant level, compared with MRI-undetected tumours, MRI-detected tumours had longer maximum cancer core length (median difference 3 mm [7 vs 4 mm]; 95% CI 1 to 4 mm, p < 0.001) and a higher grade group (p = 0.002). Of the 84 men who also underwent an MRI-targeted biopsy, 73 (87%) had recurrent cancer diagnosed. Performing an MRI-targeted biopsy alone missed cancer in 5/73 patients (7%; 95% CI 3 to 15%); with additional systematic sampling of the other ipsilateral and contralateral posterior quadrants (strategy 4), 2/73 patients (3%; 95% CI 0 to 10%) would have had cancer missed (difference 4%; 95% CI -3 to 11%, p = 0.4). If an MRI-targeted biopsy alone was performed, 43/73 (59%; 95% CI 47 to 69%) patients with cancer would have harboured undetected additional tumours in unsampled quadrants. This reduced but only to 7/73 patients (10%; 95% CI 4 to 19%) with strategy 4 (difference 49%; 95% CI 36 to 62%, p < 0.0001). Of 73 patients, 43 (59%; 95% CI 47 to 69%) had localised radiorecurrent cancer suitable for a form of focal ablation.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy, MRI and MRI-targeted biopsy, with or without perilesional sampling, will diagnose cancer in the majority where present. MRI-undetected cancers, defined as Likert scores of 1 to 2, were found to be smaller and of lower grade. However, if salvage focal ablation is planned, an MRI-targeted biopsy alone is insufficient for prostate mapping; approximately three of five patients with recurrent cancer found on an MRI-targeted biopsy alone harboured further tumours in unsampled quadrants. Systematic sampling of the whole gland should be considered in addition to an MRI-targeted biopsy to capture both MRI-detected and MRI-undetected disease.

PATIENT SUMMARY

After radiotherapy, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is accurate for detecting recurrent prostate cancer, with missed cancer being smaller and of lower grade. Targeting a biopsy to suspicious areas on MRI results in a diagnosis of cancer in most patients. However, for every five men who have recurrent cancer, this targeted approach would miss cancers elsewhere in the prostate in three of these men. If further focal treatment of the prostate is planned, random biopsies covering the whole prostate in addition to targeted biopsies should be considered so that tumours are not missed.

External validation of a risk model predicting failure of salvage focal ablation for prostate cancer

OBJECTIVES

To externally validate a published model predicting failure within 2 years after salvage focal ablation in men with localised radiorecurrent prostate cancer using a prospective, UK multicentre dataset.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients with biopsy-confirmed ≤T3bN0M0 cancer after previous external beam radiotherapy or brachytherapy were included from the FOcal RECurrent Assessment and Salvage Treatment (FORECAST) trial (NCT01883128; 2014-2018; six centres), and from the high-intensity focussed ultrasound (HIFU) Evaluation and Assessment of Treatment (HEAT) and International Cryotherapy Evaluation (ICE) UK-based registries (2006-2022; nine centres). Eligible patients underwent either salvage focal HIFU or cryotherapy, with the choice based predominantly on anatomical factors. Per the original multivariable Cox regression model, the predicted outcome was a composite failure outcome. Model performance was assessed at 2 years post-salvage with discrimination (concordance index [C-index]), calibration (calibration curve and slope), and decision curve analysis. For the latter, two clinically-reasonable risk threshold ranges of 0.14-0.52 and 0.26-0.36 were considered, corresponding to previously published pooled 2-year recurrence-free survival rates for salvage local treatments.

RESULTS

A total of 168 patients were included, of whom 84/168 (50%) experienced the primary outcome in all follow-ups, and 72/168 (43%) within 2 years. The C-index was 0.65 (95% confidence interval 0.58-0.71). On graphical inspection, there was close agreement between predicted and observed failure. The calibration slope was 1.01. In decision curve analysis, there was incremental net benefit vs a 'treat all' strategy at risk thresholds of ≥0.23. The net benefit was therefore higher across the majority of the 0.14-0.52 risk threshold range, and all of the 0.26-0.36 range.

CONCLUSION

In external validation using prospective, multicentre data, this model demonstrated modest discrimination but good calibration and clinical utility for predicting failure of salvage focal ablation within 2 years. This model could be reasonably used to improve selection of appropriate treatment candidates for salvage focal ablation, and its use should be considered when discussing salvage options with patients. Further validation in larger, international cohorts with longer follow-up is recommended.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy sudden cardiac death risk algorithms for implantable cardioverter defibrillator decision-making

AIMS

To conduct a contemporary cost-effectiveness analysis examining the use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) for primary prevention in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM).

METHODS

A discrete-time Markov model was used to determine the cost-effectiveness of different ICD decision-making rules for implantation. Several scenarios were investigated including the reference scenario of implantation rates according to observed real world practice. A 12-year time horizon with an annual cycle length was used. Transition probabilities used in the model were obtained using Bayesian analysis. The study has been reported according to the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist.

RESULTS

Using a 5-year SCD risk threshold of 6% was cheaper than current practice and has marginally better total quality adjusted life years (QALYs). This is the most cost-effective of the options considered, with an incremental cost effectiveness ratio of £834 per QALY. Sensitivity analyses highlighted that this decision is largely driven by what health related quality of life (HRQL) is attributed to ICD patients and time horizon.

CONCLUSION

We present a timely new perspective on HCM ICD cost-effectiveness, using methods reflecting real-world practice. While we have shown that a 6% 5-year SCD risk cut-off provides the best cohort stratification to aid ICD decision-making, this will also be influenced by the particular values of costs and HRQL for subgroups or at a local level. The process of explicitly demonstrating the main factors which drive conclusions from such an analysis will help to inform shared decision-making in this complex area for all stakeholders concerned.

Outlier identification and monitoring of institutional or clinician performance: an overview of statistical methods and application to national audit data

BACKGROUND

Institutions or clinicians (units) are often compared according to a performance indicator such as in-hospital mortality. Several approaches have been proposed for the detection of outlying units, whose performance deviates from the overall performance.

METHODS

We provide an overview of three approaches commonly used to monitor institutional performances for outlier detection. These are the common-mean model, the 'Normal-Poisson' random effects model and the 'Logistic' random effects model. For the latter we also propose a visualisation technique. The common-mean model assumes that the underlying true performance of all units is equal and that any observed variation between units is due to chance. Even after applying case-mix adjustment, this assumption is often violated due to overdispersion and a post-hoc correction may need to be applied. The random effects models relax this assumption and explicitly allow the true performance to differ between units, thus offering a more flexible approach. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each approach and illustrate their application using audit data from England and Wales on Adult Cardiac Surgery (ACS) and Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI).

RESULTS

In general, the overdispersion-corrected common-mean model and the random effects approaches produced similar p-values for the detection of outliers. For the ACS dataset (41 hospitals) three outliers were identified in total but only one was identified by all methods above. For the PCI dataset (88 hospitals), seven outliers were identified in total but only two were identified by all methods. The common-mean model uncorrected for overdispersion produced several more outliers. The reason for observing similar p-values for all three approaches could be attributed to the fact that the between-hospital variance was relatively small in both datasets, resulting only in a mild violation of the common-mean assumption; in this situation, the overdispersion correction worked well.

CONCLUSION

If the common-mean assumption is likely to hold, all three methods are appropriate to use for outlier detection and their results should be similar. Random effect methods may be the preferred approach when the common-mean assumption is likely to be violated.

Health-Related Quality of Life in Adults With Classical Infratentorial Superficial Siderosis: A Cross-sectional Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Infratentorial superficial siderosis (iSS) is a rare but disabling neurologic condition characterized by progressive hearing loss and balance and mobility problems. The functional decline in these neurologic domains with iSS progression is likely to adversely affect health-related quality of life (HRQoL). We studied the HRQoL of adults with iSS using 2 common generic HRQoL measures (Health Utilities Index Mark III [HUI3] and EuroQoL EQ5D [5 Level]) to determine the most affected domains and evaluate the association between HRQoL scores and disease duration.

METHODS

This observational study was an anonymous online survey. Following institutional Research Ethics Committee approval, we contacted dedicated international organizations, charities, and patient groups identified through online searches, social media, and collaborative networks, to distribute the study information and study link, inviting their members diagnosed with iSS to participate. Participation required access to a digital device connected to the Internet, confirmation of eligibility (aged 18 years and older and previously diagnosed with iSS), and informed consent to participate in the survey, which included study-specific questions (demographics, iSS, and hearing) and HRQoL questionnaires. Survey responses were captured by the Research Electronic Data Capture survey software and analyzed using the SPSS statistical package. Linear regression analysis was performed to investigate the association between HRQoL scores and disease duration.

RESULTS

Of 50 participants, 60% were male; the median (interquartile range [IQR]) age was 60 (15) years. The median (IQR) multiattribute scores for HUI3 and EQ5D were 0.36 (0.53) and 0.64 (0.33), respectively. The most frequently affected domains (moderate or worse category) were hearing (64%) and pain (48%) for HUI3 and mobility (54%) and pain (50%) for EQ5D. There was a weak association between disease duration and multiattribute scores for HUI3 (R = 0.353; adjusted R2 = 0.096; b = -0.008; p = 0.047) but not EQ5D.

DISCUSSION

Our findings demonstrate low HRQoL scores that capture low functional status in several domains typically affected in iSS, suggesting that iSS has a major adverse effect on quality of life in multiple functional domains. Measures of HRQoL in iSS should be included in clinical and research settings, including treatment trials.

Olfactory dysfunction is common in classical infratentorial superficial siderosis of the central nervous system

Background

Established features of classical infratentorial superficial siderosis (iSS) include hearing loss, impaired balance, myelopathy and, less commonly, cognitive compromise. Olfactory function may be affected but dedicated studies are lacking. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of olfactory dysfunction in iSS and correlate it with auditory and cognitive functions.

Methods

Ten participants with iSS completed the University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (UPSIT). The scores were compared with population norms; regression analysis was performed to evaluate associations between the scores and hearing thresholds (3-frequency average, 3FA) or the number of cognitive domains impaired. Imaging was reviewed for haemosiderin distribution and to exclude other causes of olfactory and hearing dysfunction.

Results

Eight of ten participants were male; the mean (standard deviation, SD) age was 52.5 (14.5) years. Olfactory hypofunction was identified in all participants and in six (60%) was moderate or completely absent. The mean UPSIT score of 25.5 (7.8) was significantly worse than population norms (difference in means − 10.0; 95% CI − 15.6 to − 4.4). Linear regression identified an association between UPSIT and hearing thresholds (R = 0.75; p = 0.013). The score decreases by 0.157 units (95% CI − 0.31 to − 0.002; p = 0.048) per unit increase in 3FA, after adjusting for hearing loss risk factors. There was no statistically significant association between UPSIT and cognitive function (R = 0.383; p = 0.397).

Conclusion

We report a high prevalence of olfactory dysfunction in iSS, the severity of which correlated with hearing loss. Olfaction appears to be a core feature of the iSS clinical syndrome that should be assessed routinely.

Importance of genotype for risk stratification in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy using the 2019 ARVC risk calculator

AIMS

To study the impact of genotype on the performance of the 2019 risk model for arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC).

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study cohort comprised 554 patients with a definite diagnosis of ARVC and no history of sustained ventricular arrhythmia (VA). During a median follow-up of 6.0 (3.1,12.5) years, 100 patients (18%) experienced the primary VA outcome (sustained ventricular tachycardia, appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator intervention, aborted sudden cardiac arrest, or sudden cardiac death) corresponding to an annual event rate of 2.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.9-3.3]. Risk estimates for VA using the 2019 ARVC risk model showed reasonable discriminative ability but with overestimation of risk. The ARVC risk model was compared in four gene groups: PKP2 (n = 118, 21%); desmoplakin (DSP) (n = 79, 14%); other desmosomal (n = 59, 11%); and gene elusive (n = 160, 29%). Discrimination and calibration were highest for PKP2 and lowest for the gene-elusive group. Univariable analyses revealed the variable performance of individual clinical risk markers in the different gene groups, e.g. right ventricular dimensions and systolic function are significant risk markers in PKP2 but not in DSP patients and the opposite is true for left ventricular systolic function.

CONCLUSION

The 2019 ARVC risk model performs reasonably well in gene-positive ARVC (particularly for PKP2) but is more limited in gene-elusive patients. Genotype should be included in future risk models for ARVC.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Targeted Biopsies Compared to Transperineal Mapping Biopsies Before Focal Ablation in Localised and Metastatic Recurrent Prostate Cancer After Radiotherapy

BACKGROUND

Recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy occurs in one in five patients. The efficacy of prostate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in recurrent cancer has not been established. Furthermore, high-quality data on new minimally invasive salvage focal ablative treatments are needed.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the role of prostate MRI in detection of prostate cancer recurring after radiotherapy and the role of salvage focal ablation in treating recurrent disease.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The FORECAST trial was both a paired-cohort diagnostic study evaluating prostate multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) and MRI-targeted biopsies in the detection of recurrent cancer and a cohort study evaluating focal ablation at six UK centres. A total of 181 patients were recruited, with 155 included in the MRI analysis and 93 in the focal ablation analysis.

INTERVENTION

Patients underwent choline positron emission tomography/computed tomography and a bone scan, followed by prostate mpMRI and MRI-targeted and transperineal template-mapping (TTPM) biopsies. MRI was reported blind to other tests. Those eligible underwent subsequent focal ablation. An amendment in December 2014 permitted focal ablation in patients with metastases.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Primary outcomes were the sensitivity of MRI and MRI-targeted biopsies for cancer detection, and urinary incontinence after focal ablation. A key secondary outcome was progression-free survival (PFS).

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Staging whole-body imaging revealed localised cancer in 128 patients (71%), with involvement of pelvic nodes only in 13 (7%) and metastases in 38 (21%). The sensitivity of MRI-targeted biopsy was 92% (95% confidence interval [CI] 83-97%). The specificity and positive and negative predictive values were 75% (95% CI 45-92%), 94% (95% CI 86-98%), and 65% (95% CI 38-86%), respectively. Four cancer (6%) were missed by TTPM biopsy and six (8%) were missed by MRI-targeted biopsy. The overall MRI sensitivity for detection of any cancer was 94% (95% CI 88-98%). The specificity and positive and negative predictive values were 18% (95% CI 7-35%), 80% (95% CI 73-87%), and 46% (95% CI 19-75%), respectively. Among 93 patients undergoing focal ablation, urinary incontinence occurred in 15 (16%) and five (5%) had a grade ≥3 adverse event, with no rectal injuries. Median follow-up was 27 mo (interquartile range 18-36); overall PFS was 66% (interquartile range 54-75%) at 24 mo.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients should undergo prostate MRI with both systematic and targeted biopsies to optimise cancer detection. Focal ablation for areas of intraprostatic recurrence preserves continence in the majority, with good early cancer control.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We investigated the role of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of the prostate and MRI-targeted biopsies in outcomes after cancer-targeted high-intensity ultrasound or cryotherapy in patients with recurrent cancer after radiotherapy. Our findings show that these patients should undergo prostate MRI with both systematic and targeted biopsies and then ablative treatment focused on areas of recurrent cancer to preserve their quality of life. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT01883128.

Association of Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction Among Carriers of Truncating Variants in Filamin C With Frequent Ventricular Arrhythmia and End-stage Heart Failure

Importance

Truncating variants in the gene encoding filamin C (FLNCtv) are associated with arrhythmogenic and dilated cardiomyopathies with a reportedly high risk of ventricular arrhythmia.

Objective

To determine the frequency of and risk factors associated with adverse events among FLNCtv carriers compared with individuals carrying TTN truncating variants (TTNtv).

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study recruited 167 consecutive FLNCtv carriers and a control cohort of 244 patients with TTNtv matched for left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) from 19 European cardiomyopathy referral units between 1990 and 2018. Data analyses were conducted between June and October, 2020.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary end point was a composite of malignant ventricular arrhythmia (MVA) (sudden cardiac death, aborted sudden cardiac death, appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator shock, and sustained ventricular tachycardia) and end-stage heart failure (heart transplant or mortality associated with end-stage heart failure). The secondary end point comprised MVA events only.

Results

In total, 167 patients with FLNCtv were studied (55 probands [33%]; 89 men [53%]; mean [SD] age at baseline evaluation, 43 [18] years). For a median follow-up of 20 months (interquartile range, 7-60 months), 29 patients (17.4%) reached the primary end point (19 patients with MVA and 10 patients with end-stage heart failure). Eight (44%) arrhythmic events occurred among individuals with baseline mild to moderate left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) (LVEF = 36%-49%). Univariable risk factors associated with the primary end point included proband status, LVEF decrement per 10%, ventricular ectopy (≥500 in 24 hours) and myocardial fibrosis detected on cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. The LVEF decrement (hazard ratio [HR] per 10%, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.30-2.57]; P < .001) and proband status (HR, 3.18 [95% CI, 1.12-9.04]; P = .03) remained independent risk factors on multivariable analysis (excluding myocardial fibrosis and ventricular ectopy owing to case censoring). There was no difference in freedom from MVA between FLNCtv carriers with mild to moderate or severe (LVEF ≤35%) LVSD (HR, 1.29 [95% CI, 0.45-3.72]; P = .64). Carriers of FLNCtv with impaired LVEF at baseline evaluation (n = 69) had reduced freedom from MVA compared with 244 TTNtv carriers with similar baseline LVEF (for mild to moderate LVSD: HR, 16.41 [95% CI, 3.45-78.11]; P < .001; for severe LVSD: HR, 2.47 [95% CI, 1.04-5.87]; P = .03).

Conclusions and Relevance

The high frequency of MVA among patients with FLNCtv with mild to moderate LVSD suggests that higher LVEF values than those currently recommended should be considered for prophylactic implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy in FLNCtv carriers.

Risk prediction in multicentre studies when there is confounding by cluster or informative cluster size

Background

Clustered data arise in research when patients are clustered within larger units. Generalised Estimating Equations (GEE) and Generalised Linear Models (GLMM) can be used to provide marginal and cluster-specific inference and predictions, respectively.

Methods

Confounding by Cluster (CBC) and Informative cluster size (ICS) are two complications that may arise when modelling clustered data. CBC can arise when the distribution of a predictor variable (termed ‘exposure’), varies between clusters causing confounding of the exposure-outcome relationship. ICS means that the cluster size conditional on covariates is not independent of the outcome. In both situations, standard GEE and GLMM may provide biased or misleading inference, and modifications have been proposed. However, both CBC and ICS are routinely overlooked in the context of risk prediction, and their impact on the predictive ability of the models has been little explored. We study the effect of CBC and ICS on the predictive ability of risk models for binary outcomes when GEE and GLMM are used. We examine whether two simple approaches to handle CBC and ICS, which involve adjusting for the cluster mean of the exposure and the cluster size, respectively, can improve the accuracy of predictions.

Results

Both CBC and ICS can be viewed as violations of the assumptions in the standard GLMM; the random effects are correlated with exposure for CBC and cluster size for ICS. Based on these principles, we simulated data subject to CBC/ICS. The simulation studies suggested that the predictive ability of models derived from using standard GLMM and GEE ignoring CBC/ICS was affected. Marginal predictions were found to be mis-calibrated. Adjusting for the cluster-mean of the exposure or the cluster size improved calibration, discrimination and the overall predictive accuracy of marginal predictions, by explaining part of the between cluster variability. The presence of CBC/ICS did not affect the accuracy of conditional predictions. We illustrate these concepts using real data from a multicentre study with potential CBC.

Conclusion

Ignoring CBC and ICS when developing prediction models for clustered data can affect the accuracy of marginal predictions. Adjusting for the cluster mean of the exposure or the cluster size can improve the predictive accuracy of marginal predictions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-021-01321-x.

MRI and targeted biopsies compared to transperineal mapping biopsies for targeted ablation in recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy: Primary outcomes of the FORECAST trial

5009

Background: Radiotherapy is a common and effective treatment for localised prostate cancer. However, recurrence of cancer can occur in 10-15% of men in the following 5 years. Most patients with recurrence are managed using hormonal therapy with associated systemic side-effects and subsequent development of castrate resistance. Salvage prostatectomy confers a high risk of urine incontinence and rectal injury. Accurately localising and ablating only areas of recurrence within the prostate might be effective with fewer side-effects. The FOcal RECurrent Assessment and Salvage Treatment (FORECAST) trial assessed this diagnostic and treatment pathway for men with radiorecurrent cancer (NCT01883128). Methods: We first compared the accuracy of multi-parametric MRI (mp-MRI) and MRI-targeted biopsy in identifying areas of recurrent cancer to a transperineal template prostate mapping (TTPM) biopsy (Apr/2014-Jan/2018) in 181 patients from 6 UK centres. We then assessed the functional and cancer control outcomes of focally ablating areas of intraprostatic recurrence in 93 patients with localised or metastatic cancer (using cryotherapy or HIFU). Primary outcomes were sensitivity of mpMRI and MRI-targeted biopsies and urinary continence after focal ablation. A key secondary outcome was progression free survival (PFS) defined as no new metastases or hormone use (localised group only), or chemotherapy or further local treatment. Results: Of 181 men with suspicion of recurrence following radiotherapy, re-staging whole-body imaging (Choline PET and Bone Scan) showed localised disease in 128 (71%), nodal disease only in 13 (7%) and 38 (21%) metastatic. The sensitivity of MRI-targeted biopsy was 92% (95%CI 83-97%). Specificity, and positive and negative predictive values, were 75% (95%CI 45-92%), 94% (95%CI 86-98%) and 65% (95%CI 38-86%). 4/72 (6%) cancers were missed on TTPM biopsies alone and 6/72 (8%) were missed on MRI-targeted biopsies alone. Overall sensitivity of mpMRI was 81% (95%CI 73-88%) using Likert score 4-5 to denote a positive test. Specificity, and positive and negative predictive values, were 88% (95%CI 73-98%), 96% (95%CI 90-99%) and 57% (95%CI 42-70%). In the 93 men undergoing focal ablation, urinary continence was preserved in 78/93 (84%); 5/93 (5%) had a CTCAE grade 3+ adverse events. There were no rectal injuries. With a median follow-up of 27.8 [SD 1.3] months, PFS was 66% [54-75] at 24-months. Metastases-free survival in the 73 men with localised disease was 80% [95%CI 68–88] at 24-months. There were no cancer specific deaths. Conclusions: Prostate mpMRI and MRI-targeted biopsies can accurately detect and localise recurrent prostate cancer following radiotherapy. Focal ablation to areas of intra-prostatic recurrence preserves continence in the majority of men with good cancer control. Clinical trial information: NCT01883128.

The CADMUS trial: A paired cohort, blinded study comparing multiparametric ultrasound targeted biopsies with multiparametric MRI targeted biopsies in the detection of clinically significant prostate cancer

5008

Background: Multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) of the prostate followed by targeted biopsy is recommended in men at risk of prostate cancer. Dissemination of this pathway may be limited by cost, variable scan and reporting quality, and contraindicated in the presence of metallic implants and claustrophobia. Multi-parametric ultrasound (mpUSS) is a point of care test with low cost that combines b-mode, colour Doppler, elastography and contrast enhancement. CADMUS compared the diagnostic performance of mpUSS to mpMRI. Methods: CADMUS recruited 370 patients from seven sites to a prospective, multicentre, paired-cohort trial (ISRCTN 38541912). Ethics committee approval was obtained. Patients underwent both mpUSS and mpMRI independently, each with a positive test defined as a Likert score of >3. Those with either a positive mpUSS or mpMRI, or both, were advised to undergo targeted biopsies. Reporting of each scan was carried out blind to the other and prior to biopsy; patients advised for biopsy were blinded to which test was positive. The order of mpUSS and mpMRI targeting was randomised. Primary outcomes were proportion of positive tests and detection of clinically significant cancer (csPCa) defined as Gleason >4+3 of any length and/or maximum cancer core length of >6mm of any grade [PROMIS definition1]. Results: 306 completed both mpUSS and mpMRI. Agreement in lesion detection between mpUSS and mpMRI was 73.2% (kappa 0.06, p = 0.14). 257 with positive results on mpUSS, mpMRI or both had targeted biopsies. Agreement on detection of csPCa was 91.1% (expected 59.8%, kappa 0.78, p < 0.01). Overall, mpUSS detected 4.3% fewer csPCa than mpMRI (95% CI = [-8.3%, -1.5%]; p = 0.042 [Bonferroni correction]). mpUSS detected 7.2% (6/83) csPCa missed by mpMRI; mpMRI detected 20.5% (17/83) csPCa that mpUSS missed. At a less stringent definition of significant cancer, Gleason grade >3+4 of any length (definition 3), agreement was 89.1% (expected 55.6%, kappa 0.75, p < 0.01) mpUSS detected 5.4% fewer definition 3 cancers than mpMRI overall. mpUSS detected 7% (7/99) definition 3 cancers that mpMRI missed; mpMRI detected 21% (21/99) definition 3 cancers that mpUSS missed. Conclusions: The CADMUS trial shows mpUSS has a diagnostic performance approaching that of mpMRI and significant cancer detection is improved by the use of both scans over mpMRI alone. Clinical trial information: 38541912. [Table: see text]

Estimation of required sample size for external validation of risk models for binary outcomes

Risk-prediction models for health outcomes are used in practice as part of clinical decision-making, and it is essential that their performance be externally validated. An important aspect in the design of a validation study is choosing an adequate sample size. In this paper, we investigate the sample size requirements for validation studies with binary outcomes to estimate measures of predictive performance (C-statistic for discrimination and calibration slope and calibration in the large). We aim for sufficient precision in the estimated measures. In addition, we investigate the sample size to achieve sufficient power to detect a difference from a target value. Under normality assumptions on the distribution of the linear predictor, we obtain simple estimators for sample size calculations based on the measures above. Simulation studies show that the estimators perform well for common values of the C-statistic and outcome prevalence when the linear predictor is marginally Normal. Their performance deteriorates only slightly when the normality assumptions are violated. We also propose estimators which do not require normality assumptions but require specification of the marginal distribution of the linear predictor and require the use of numerical integration. These estimators were also seen to perform very well under marginal normality. Our sample size equations require a specified standard error (SE) and the anticipated C-statistic and outcome prevalence. The sample size requirement varies according to the prognostic strength of the model, outcome prevalence, choice of the performance measure and study objective. For example, to achieve an SE < 0.025 for the C-statistic, 60–170 events are required if the true C-statistic and outcome prevalence are between 0.64–0.85 and 0.05–0.3, respectively. For the calibration slope and calibration in the large, achieving SE < 0.15 would require 40–280 and 50–100 events, respectively. Our estimators may also be used for survival outcomes when the proportion of censored observations is high.

Mortality Among Referral Patients With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy vs the General European Population

Importance

It is unclear whether hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) conveys excess mortality when compared with the general population.

Objective

To compare the survival of patients with HCM with that of the general European population.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Retrospective cohort study of 4893 consecutive adult patients with HCM presenting at 7 European referral centers between 1980 and 2013. The data were analyzed between April 2018 and August 2019.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Survival was compared using standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) calculated with data from Eurostat, stratified by study period, country, sex, and age, and using a composite end point in the HCM cohort of all-cause mortality, aborted sudden cardiac death, and heart transplant.

Results

Of 4893 patients with HCM, 3126 (63.9%) were male, and the mean (SD) age at presentation was 49.2 (16.4) years. During a median follow-up of 6.2 years (interquartile range, 3.1-9.8 years), 721 patients (14.7%) reached the composite end point. Compared with the general population, patients with HCM had excess mortality throughout the age spectrum (SMR, 2.0, 95% CI, 1.48-2.63). Excess mortality was highest among patients presenting prior to the year 2000 but persisted in the cohort presenting between 2006 and 2013 (SMR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.55-2.18). Women had higher excess mortality than men (SMR, 2.66; 95% CI, 2.38-2.97; vs SMR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.52-1.85; P < .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

Among patients referred to European specialty centers, HCM was associated with significant excess mortality through the life course. Although there have been improvements in survival with time, potentially reflecting improved treatments for HCM, these findings highlight the need for more research into the causes of excess mortality among patients with HCM and for better risk stratification.

Vestibular rehabilitation in multiple sclerosis: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial and cost-effectiveness analysis comparing customised with booklet based vestibular rehabilitation for vestibulopathy and a 12 month observational cohort study of the symptom reduction and recurrence rate following treatment for benign paroxysmal positional vertigo

Background

Symptoms arising from vestibular system dysfunction are observed in 49–59% of people with Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Symptoms may include vertigo, dizziness and/or imbalance. These impact on functional ability, contribute to falls and significant health and social care costs. In people with MS, vestibular dysfunction can be due to peripheral pathology that may include Benign Paroxysmal Positional Vertigo (BPPV), as well as central or combined pathology. Vestibular symptoms may be treated with vestibular rehabilitation (VR), and with repositioning manoeuvres in the case of BPPV. However, there is a paucity of evidence about the rate and degree of symptom recovery with VR for people with MS and vestibulopathy. In addition, given the multiplicity of symptoms and underpinning vestibular pathologies often seen in people with MS, a customised VR approach may be more clinically appropriate and cost effective than generic booklet-based approaches. Likewise, BPPV should be identified and treated appropriately.

Methods/ design

People with MS and symptoms of vertigo, dizziness and/or imbalance will be screened for central and/or peripheral vestibulopathy and/or BPPV. Following consent, people with BPPV will be treated with re-positioning manoeuvres over 1–3 sessions and followed up at 6 and 12 months to assess for any re-occurrence of BPPV. People with central and/or peripheral vestibulopathy will be entered into a randomised controlled trial (RCT). Trial participants will be randomly allocated (1:1) to either a 12-week generic booklet-based home programme with telephone support or a 12-week VR programme consisting of customised treatment including 12 face-to-face sessions and a home exercise programme. Customised or booklet-based interventions will start 2 weeks after randomisation and all trial participants will be followed up 14 and 26 weeks from randomisation. The primary clinical outcome is the Dizziness Handicap Inventory at 26 weeks and the primary economic endpoint is quality-adjusted life-years. A range of secondary outcomes associated with vestibular function will be used.

Discussion

If customised VR is demonstrated to be clinically and cost-effective compared to generic booklet-based VR this will inform practice guidelines and the development of training packages for therapists in the diagnosis and treatment of vestibulopathy in people with MS.

Trial registration

ISRCTN Number: 27374299

Date of Registration 24/09/2018

Protocol Version 15 25/09/2019

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12883-020-01983-y.

Remote Microphone Hearing Aid Use Improves Classroom Listening, Without Adverse Effects on Spatial Listening and Attention Skills, in Children With Auditory Processing Disorder: A Randomised Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Children with Auditory Processing Disorder (APD) often have poor auditory processing skills in the presence of normal peripheral hearing. These children have worse listening-in-noise skills compared to typically developing peers, while other commonly reported symptoms include poor attention and distractibility. One of the management strategies for children with APD is the use of Remote Microphone Hearing Aids (RMHAs), which can help improve the signal-to-noise ratio in the child's ears. The aim of this randomised controlled trial was to examine whether RMHAs improved classroom listening in children with APD, and to further test their effects on children's listening-in-noise and attention skills following a 6-month intervention.

METHODS

Twenty-six children diagnosed with APD, aged 7-12, in primary mainstream education, were randomised into the intervention (N = 13) and control group (N = 13). The primary outcome measure was the Listening Inventory for Education - Revised questionnaire, completed by children to assess their listening using RMHAs under several acoustically challenging situations in the classroom. Secondary outcome measures included the Listening in Spatialised Noise - Sentences test, assessing speech-in-noise perception and spatial listening, and the Test of Everyday Attention for Children, assessing different types of attention skills. Tests were conducted in unaided conditions. Mixed analysis of variance was used to analyse the data. The clinical trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov (unique identifier: NCT02353091).

RESULTS

The questionnaire scores of self-reported listening skills in the classroom significantly improved in the intervention group after 3, MD = 7.31, SE = 2.113, p = 0.014, and after 6 months, M = 5.00, SE = 1.468, p = 0.016. The behavioural measures of listening-in-noise and attention did not significantly change.

CONCLUSION

Use of RMHAs improves classroom listening, evidenced by the results of the questionnaire analysis, while a 6-month use did not have adverse effects on unaided spatial listening or attention skills.

Assessment of the Subarachnoid Hemorrhage International Trialists (SAHIT) Models for Dichotomized Long-Term Functional Outcome Prediction After Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage in a United Kingdom Multicenter Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Long-term outcome after subarachnoid hemorrhage, beyond the first few months, is difficult to predict, but has critical relevance to patients, their families, and carers.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the performance of the Subarachnoid Hemorrhage International Trialists (SAHIT) prediction models, which were initially designed to predict short-term (90 d) outcome, as predictors of long-term (2 yr) functional outcome after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH).

METHODS

We included 1545 patients with angiographically-proven aSAH from the Genetic and Observational Subarachnoid Haemorrhage (GOSH) study recruited at 22 hospitals between 2011 and 2014. We collected data on age, WNFS grade on admission, history of hypertension, Fisher grade, aneurysm size and location, as well as treatment modality. Functional outcome was measured by the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) with GOS 1 to 3 corresponding to unfavorable and 4 to 5 to favorable functional outcome, according to the SAHIT models. The SAHIT models were assessed for long-term outcome prediction by estimating measures of calibration (calibration slope) and discrimination (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUC]) in relation to poor clinical outcome.

RESULTS

Follow-up was standardized to 2 yr using imputation methods. All 3 SAHIT models demonstrated acceptable predictive performance for long-term functional outcome. The estimated AUC was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65-0.76), 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68-0.77), and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.69-0.79) for the core, neuroimaging, and full models, respectively; the calibration slopes were 0.86, 0.84, and 0.89, indicating good calibration.

CONCLUSION

The SAHIT prediction models, incorporating simple factors available on hospital admission, show good predictive performance for long-term functional outcome after aSAH.

Osteomimetic matrix components alter cell migration and drug response in a 3D tumour-engineered osteosarcoma model

Osteosarcoma management continues to lack the appropriate prognostic tools to assign personalised treatment. This leaves non-responders to standard care vulnerable to recurring disease and pulmonary metastases. Developing 3D in vitro disease models to serve as a test bed for personalised treatment is a promising approach to address this issue. This study describes the generation of 3D osteosarcoma models termed "tumouroids", which are geometrically compartmentalised to reproduce the bone cancer mass and its surrounding. Although the tumour microenvironment impacts osteosarcoma in many ways, this model focussed on interrogating the influence of a biomimetic matrix on tumour cell behaviour. The 3D matrix was supplemented with the bone-marrow proteins laminin, fibronectin and NuOss® bone granules. This led to increased invasion of osteosarcoma cell aggregates from within the bone-like matrix into the surrounding acellular bone marrow-like ECM. The presence of bone granules also yielded an atypical molecular profile of osteosarcoma cells, suggesting malignant metabolic reprogramming. Changes include decreased MMP-9 (p < 0.05) and increased PTEN (p < 0.05), MCP-1 (p < 0.01) and MCT-4 (p < 0.05) gene expression. This complex 3D biomimetic composition also changed cellular responses to doxorubicin, a common chemotherapeutic agent used to treat osteosarcoma, and reproduced key issues of in vivo treatment like drug penetrance and doxorubicin-induced bone toxicity. This work highlights the importance of a biomimetic matrix in 3D osteosarcoma models for both basic and translational research. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: This study describes the generation of 3D osteosarcoma models termed "tumouroids", which are geometrically compartmentalised to reproduce the bone cancer mass and its environment. Utilising this novel model, specific parameters of osteosarcoma growth and invasion were investigated. Osteosarcoma cell lines proliferate at a slower rate, exhibit malignant metabolic reprogramming, and respond to drug intervention at lower concentrations of doxorubicin hydrochloride in matrix-complex compared to basic tumouroids. As such, this study provides evidence that the tumour microenvironment impacts osteosarcoma in many ways. The osteosarcoma tumouroid described herein may form the basis of a personalised-medicine strategy, which will allow the testing of drug effectiveness similar to that used for antibiotic selection for pathogenic bacteria.

Effect of Trimetazidine Dihydrochloride Therapy on Exercise Capacity in Patients With Nonobstructive Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy: A Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy causes limiting symptoms in patients, mediated partly through inefficient myocardial energy use. There is conflicting evidence for therapy with inhibitors of myocardial fatty acid metabolism in patients with nonobstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

Objective

To determine the effect of oral therapy with trimetazidine, a direct inhibitor of fatty acid β-oxidation, on exercise capacity in patients with symptomatic nonobstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind clinical trial at The Heart Hospital, University College London Hospitals, London, United Kingdom was performed between May 31, 2012, and September 8, 2014. The trial included 51 drug-refractory symptomatic (New York Heart Association class ≥2) patients aged 24 to 74 years with a maximum left ventricular outflow tract gradient 50 mm Hg or lower and a peak oxygen consumption during exercise of 80% or less predicted value for age and sex. Statistical analysis was performed from March 1, 2016 through July 4, 2018.

Interventions

Participants were randomly assigned to trimetazidine, 20 mg, 3 times daily (n = 27) or placebo (n = 24) for 3 months.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary end point was peak oxygen consumption during upright bicycle ergometry. Secondary end points were 6-minute walk distance, quality of life (Minnesota Living with Heart Failure questionnaire), frequency of ventricular ectopic beats, diastolic function, serum N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide level, and troponin T level.

Results

Of 49 participants who received trimetazidine (n = 26) or placebo (n = 23) and completed the study, 34 (70%) were male; the mean (SD) age was 50 (13) years. Trimetazidine therapy did not improve exercise capacity, with patients in the trimetazidine group walking 38.4 m (95% CI, 5.13 to 71.70 m) less than patients in the placebo group at 3 months after adjustment for their baseline walking distance measurements. After adjustment for baseline values, peak oxygen consumption was 1.35 mL/kg per minute lower (95% CI, -2.58 to -0.11 mL/kg per minute; P = .03) in the intervention group after 3 months.

Conclusions and Relevance

In symptomatic patients with nonobstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, trimetazidine therapy does not improve exercise capacity. Pharmacologic therapy for this disease remains limited.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01696370.

Review and evaluation of penalised regression methods for risk prediction in low-dimensional data with few events

Risk prediction models are used to predict a clinical outcome for patients using a set of predictors. We focus on predicting low-dimensional binary outcomes typically arising in epidemiology, health services and public health research where logistic regression is commonly used. When the number of events is small compared with the number of regression coefficients, model overfitting can be a serious problem. An overfitted model tends to demonstrate poor predictive accuracy when applied to new data. We review frequentist and Bayesian shrinkage methods that may alleviate overfitting by shrinking the regression coefficients towards zero (some methods can also provide more parsimonious models by omitting some predictors). We evaluated their predictive performance in comparison with maximum likelihood estimation using real and simulated data. The simulation study showed that maximum likelihood estimation tends to produce overfitted models with poor predictive performance in scenarios with few events, and penalised methods can offer improvement. Ridge regression performed well, except in scenarios with many noise predictors. Lasso performed better than ridge in scenarios with many noise predictors and worse in the presence of correlated predictors. Elastic net, a hybrid of the two, performed well in all scenarios. Adaptive lasso and smoothly clipped absolute deviation performed best in scenarios with many noise predictors; in other scenarios, their performance was inferior to that of ridge and lasso. Bayesian approaches performed well when the hyperparameters for the priors were chosen carefully. Their use may aid variable selection, and they can be easily extended to clustered-data settings and to incorporate external information.

Analysis of Randomised Trials Including Multiple Births When Birth Size Is Informative

BACKGROUND

Informative birth size occurs when the average outcome depends on the number of infants per birth. Although analysis methods have been proposed for handling informative birth size, their performance is not well understood. Our aim was to evaluate the performance of these methods and to provide recommendations for their application in randomised trials including infants from single and multiple births.

METHODS

Three generalised estimating equation (GEE) approaches were considered for estimating the effect of treatment on a continuous or binary outcome: cluster weighted GEEs, which produce treatment effects with a mother-level interpretation when birth size is informative; standard GEEs with an independence working correlation structure, which produce treatment effects with an infant-level interpretation when birth size is informative; and standard GEEs with an exchangeable working correlation structure, which do not account for informative birth size. The methods were compared through simulation and analysis of an example dataset.

RESULTS

Treatment effect estimates were affected by informative birth size in the simulation study when the effect of treatment in singletons differed from that in multiples (i.e. in the presence of a treatment group by multiple birth interaction). The strength of evidence supporting the effectiveness of treatment varied between methods in the example dataset.

CONCLUSIONS

Informative birth size is always a possibility in randomised trials including infants from both single and multiple births, and analysis methods should be pre-specified with this in mind. We recommend estimating treatment effects using standard GEEs with an independence working correlation structure to give an infant-level interpretation.

Validation of the Sexual Communication Self-Efficacy Scale

This study assessed a newly developed Sexual Communication Self-Efficacy Scale designed to measure the sexual communication self-efficacy of adolescent men and women. Three-hundred and seventy-four U.K. adolescents completed this new scale, along with several other validity measures. Factor analysis revealed that the Sexual Communication Self-Efficacy Scale consisted of five underlying factors: contraception communication, positive sexual messages, negative sexual messages, sexual history, and condom negotiation. These factors demonstrated high internal consistency and presents evidence to support construct validity. This scale may have utility in assessing the effectiveness of interventions designed to enhance sexual communication and sexual health behaviors among young people.

How to develop a more accurate risk prediction model when there are few events

When the number of events is low relative to the number of predictors, standard regression could produce overfitted risk models that make inaccurate predictions. Use of penalised regression may improve the accuracy of risk prediction

A note on obtaining correct marginal predictions from a random intercepts model for binary outcomes

Background

Clustered data with binary outcomes are often analysed using random intercepts models or generalised estimating equations (GEE) resulting in cluster-specific or ‘population-average’ inference, respectively.

Methods

When a random effects model is fitted to clustered data, predictions may be produced for a member of an existing cluster by using estimates of the fixed effects (regression coefficients) and the random effect for the cluster (conditional risk calculation), or for a member of a new cluster (marginal risk calculation). We focus on the second. Marginal risk calculation from a random effects model is obtained by integrating over the distribution of random effects. However, in practice marginal risks are often obtained, incorrectly, using only estimates of the fixed effects (i.e. by effectively setting the random effects to zero). We compare these two approaches to marginal risk calculation in terms of model calibration.

Results

In simulation studies, it has been seen that use of the incorrect marginal risk calculation from random effects models results in poorly calibrated overall marginal predictions (calibration slope <1 and calibration in the large ≠ 0) with mis-calibration becoming worse with higher degrees of clustering. We clarify that this was due to the incorrect calculation of marginal predictions from a random intercepts model and explain intuitively why this approach is incorrect. We show via simulation that the correct calculation of marginal risks from a random intercepts model results in predictions with excellent calibration.

Conclusion

The logistic random intercepts model can be used to obtain valid marginal predictions by integrating over the distribution of random effects.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12874-015-0046-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Prediction of thrombo-embolic risk in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM Risk-CVA)

Aims

Atrial fibrillation (AF) and thrombo‐embolism (TE) are associated with reduced survival in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), but the absolute risk of TE in patients with and without AF is unclear. The primary aim of this study was to derive and validate a model for estimating the risk of TE in HCM. Exploratory analyses were performed to determine predictors of TE, the performance of the CHA₂DS₂‐VASc score, and outcome with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs).

Methods and results

A retrospective, longitudinal cohort of seven institutions was used to develop multivariable Cox regression models fitted with pre‐selected predictors. Bootstrapping was used for validation. Of 4821 HCM patients recruited between 1986 and 2008, 172 (3.6%) reached the primary endpoint of cerebrovascular accident (CVA), transient ischaemic attack (TIA), or systemic peripheral embolus within 10 years. A total of 27.5% of patients had a CHA₂DS₂‐VASc score of 0, of whom 9.8% developed TE during follow‐up. Cox regression revealed an association between TE and age, AF, the interaction between age and AF, TE prior to first evaluation, NYHA class, left atrial (LA) diameter, vascular disease, and maximal LV wall thickness. There was a curvilinear relationship between LA size and TE risk. The model predicted TE with a C‐index of 0.75 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70–0.80] and the D‐statistic was 1.30 (95% CI 1.05–1.56). VKA treatment was associated with a 54.8% (95% CI 31–97%, P = 0.037) relative risk reduction in HCM patients with AF.

Conclusions

The study shows that the risk of TE in HCM patients can be identified using a small number of simple clinical features. LA size, in particular, should be monitored closely, and the assessment and treatment of conventional vascular risk factors should be routine practice in older patients. Exploratory analyses show for the first time evidence for a reduction of TE with VKA treatment. The CHA₂DS₂‐VASc score does not appear to correlate well with the clinical outcome in patients with HCM and should not be used to assess TE risk in this population.

Clinical features, microbiology and surgical outcomes of infective endocarditis: a 13-year study from a UK tertiary cardiothoracic referral centre

BACKGROUND

Infective endocarditis (IE) causes substantial morbidity and mortality. Patient and pathogen profiles, as well as microbiological and operative strategies, continue to evolve. The impact of these changes requires evaluation to inform optimum management and identify individuals at high risk of early mortality.

AIM

Identification of clinical and microbiological features, and surgical outcomes, among patients presenting to a UK tertiary cardiothoracic centre for surgical management of IE between 1998 and 2010.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational cohort study.

METHODS

Clinical, biochemical, microbiological and echocardiographic data were identified from clinical records. Principal outcomes were all-cause 28-day mortality and duration of post-operative admission.

RESULTS

Patients (n = 336) were predominantly male (75.0%); median age 52 years (IQR = 41-67). Most cases involved the aortic (56.0%) or mitral (53.9%) valves. Microbiological diagnoses, obtained in 288 (85.7%) patients, included streptococci (45.2%); staphylococci (34.5%); Haemophilus, Actinobacillus, Cardiobacterium, Eikenella, Kingella (HACEK) organisms (3.0%); and fungi (1.8%); 11.3% had polymicrobial infection. Valve replacement in 308 (91.7%) patients included mechanical prostheses (69.8%), xenografts (24.0%) and homografts (6.2%). Early mortality was 12.2%, but fell progressively during the study (P = 0.02), as did median duration of post-operative admission (33.5 to 10.5 days; P = 0.0003). Multivariable analysis showed previous cardiothoracic surgery (OR = 3.85, P = 0.03), neutrophil count (OR = 2.27, P = 0.05), albumin (OR = 0.94, P = 0.04) and urea (OR = 2.63, P < 0.001) predicted early mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates reduced post-operative early mortality and duration of hospital admission for IE patients over the past 13 years. Biomarkers (previous cardiothoracic surgery, neutrophil count, albumin and urea), predictive of early post-operative mortality, require prospective evaluation to refine algorithms, further improve outcomes and reduce healthcare costs associated with IE.

Review of methods for handling confounding by cluster and informative cluster size in clustered data

Clustered data are common in medical research. Typically, one is interested in a regression model for the association between an outcome and covariates. Two complications that can arise when analysing clustered data are informative cluster size (ICS) and confounding by cluster (CBC). ICS and CBC mean that the outcome of a member given its covariates is associated with, respectively, the number of members in the cluster and the covariate values of other members in the cluster. Standard generalised linear mixed models for cluster-specific inference and standard generalised estimating equations for population-average inference assume, in general, the absence of ICS and CBC. Modifications of these approaches have been proposed to account for CBC or ICS. This article is a review of these methods. We express their assumptions in a common format, thus providing greater clarity about the assumptions that methods proposed for handling CBC make about ICS and vice versa, and about when different methods can be used in practice. We report relative efficiencies of methods where available, describe how methods are related, identify a previously unreported equivalence between two key methods, and propose some simple additional methods. Unnecessarily using a method that allows for ICS/CBC has an efficiency cost when ICS and CBC are absent. We review tools for identifying ICS/CBC. A strategy for analysis when CBC and ICS are suspected is demonstrated by examining the association between socio-economic deprivation and preterm neonatal death in Scotland.

Methods for observed-cluster inference when cluster size is informative: a review and clarifications

Clustered data commonly arise in epidemiology. We assume each cluster member has an outcome Y and covariates X. When there are missing data in Y, the distribution of Y given X in all cluster members ("complete clusters") may be different from the distribution just in members with observed Y ("observed clusters"). Often the former is of interest, but when data are missing because in a fundamental sense Y does not exist (e.g., quality of life for a person who has died), the latter may be more meaningful (quality of life conditional on being alive). Weighted and doubly weighted generalized estimating equations and shared random-effects models have been proposed for observed-cluster inference when cluster size is informative, that is, the distribution of Y given X in observed clusters depends on observed cluster size. We show these methods can be seen as actually giving inference for complete clusters and may not also give observed-cluster inference. This is true even if observed clusters are complete in themselves rather than being the observed part of larger complete clusters: here methods may describe imaginary complete clusters rather than the observed clusters. We show under which conditions shared random-effects models proposed for observed-cluster inference do actually describe members with observed Y. A psoriatic arthritis dataset is used to illustrate the danger of misinterpreting estimates from shared random-effects models.

The Sexunzipped trial: optimizing the design of online randomized controlled trials

Background

Sexual health problems such as unwanted pregnancy and sexually transmitted infection are important public health concerns and there is huge potential for health promotion using digital interventions. Evaluations of digital interventions are increasingly conducted online. Trial administration and data collection online offers many advantages, but concerns remain over fraudulent registration to obtain compensation, the quality of self-reported data, and high attrition.

Objective

This study addresses the feasibility of several dimensions of online trial design—recruitment, online consent, participant identity verification, randomization and concealment of allocation, online data collection, data quality, and retention at 3-month follow-up.

Methods

Young people aged 16 to 20 years and resident in the United Kingdom were recruited to the “Sexunzipped” online trial between November 2010 and March 2011 (n=2036). Participants filled in baseline demographic and sexual health questionnaires online and were randomized to the Sexunzipped interactive intervention website or to an information-only control website. Participants were also randomly allocated to a postal request (or no request) for a urine sample for genital chlamydia testing and receipt of a lower (£10/US$16) or higher (£20/US$32) value shopping voucher compensation for 3-month outcome data.

Results

The majority of the 2006 valid participants (90.98%, 1825/2006) were aged between 18 and 20 years at enrolment, from all four countries in the United Kingdom. Most were white (89.98%, 1805/2006), most were in school or training (77.48%, 1545/1994), and 62.81% (1260/2006) of the sample were female. In total, 3.88% (79/2036) of registrations appeared to be invalid and another 4.00% (81/2006) of participants gave inconsistent responses within the questionnaire. The higher value compensation (£20/US$32) increased response rates by 6-10%, boosting retention at 3 months to 77.2% (166/215) for submission of online self-reported sexual health outcomes and 47.4% (118/249) for return of chlamydia urine samples by post.

Conclusions

It was quick and efficient to recruit young people to this online trial. Our procedures for obtaining online consent, verifying participant identity, automated randomization, and concealment of allocation worked well. The optimal response rate for the online sexual health outcome measurement was comparable to face-to-face trials. Multiple methods of participant contact, requesting online data only, and higher value compensation increased trial retention at 3-month follow-up.

Trial Registration

International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): 55651027; http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN55651027 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6LbkxdPKf).

A novel clinical risk prediction model for sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM risk-SCD)

AIMS

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a leading cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in young adults. Current risk algorithms provide only a crude estimate of risk and fail to account for the different effect size of individual risk factors. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a new SCD risk prediction model that provides individualized risk estimates.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The prognostic model was derived from a retrospective, multi-centre longitudinal cohort study. The model was developed from the entire data set using the Cox proportional hazards model and internally validated using bootstrapping. The cohort consisted of 3675 consecutive patients from six centres. During a follow-up period of 24 313 patient-years (median 5.7 years), 198 patients (5%) died suddenly or had an appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) shock. Of eight pre-specified predictors, age, maximal left ventricular wall thickness, left atrial diameter, left ventricular outflow tract gradient, family history of SCD, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, and unexplained syncope were associated with SCD/appropriate ICD shock at the 15% significance level. These predictors were included in the final model to estimate individual probabilities of SCD at 5 years. The calibration slope was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.74, 1.08), C-index was 0.70 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.72), and D-statistic was 1.07 (95% CI: 0.81, 1.32). For every 16 ICDs implanted in patients with ≥4% 5-year SCD risk, potentially 1 patient will be saved from SCD at 5 years. A second model with the data set split into independent development and validation cohorts had very similar estimates of coefficients and performance when externally validated.

CONCLUSION

This is the first validated SCD risk prediction model for patients with HCM and provides accurate individualized estimates for the probability of SCD using readily collected clinical parameters.

The effect of virtual reality on visual vertigo symptoms in patients with peripheral vestibular dysfunction: a pilot study

Individuals with vestibular dysfunction may experience visual vertigo (VV), in which symptoms are provoked or exacerbated by excessive or disorientating visual stimuli (e.g. supermarkets). VV can significantly improve when customized vestibular rehabilitation exercises are combined with exposure to optokinetic stimuli. Virtual reality (VR), which immerses patients in realistic, visually challenging environments, has also been suggested as an adjunct to VR to improve VV symptoms. This pilot study compared the responses of sixteen patients with unilateral peripheral vestibular disorder randomly allocated to a VR regime incorporating exposure to a static (Group S) or dynamic (Group D) VR environment. Participants practiced vestibular exercises, twice weekly for four weeks, inside a static (Group S) or dynamic (Group D) virtual crowded square environment, presented in an immersive projection theatre (IPT), and received a vestibular exercise program to practice on days not attending clinic. A third Group D1 completed both the static and dynamic VR training. Treatment response was assessed with the Dynamic Gait Index and questionnaires concerning symptom triggers and psychological state. At final assessment, significant between-group differences were noted between Groups D (p=0.001) and D1 (p=0.03) compared to Group S for VV symptoms with the former two showing a significant 59.2% and 25.8% improvement respectively compared to 1.6% for the latter. Depression scores improved only for Group S (p=0.01) while a trend towards significance was noted for Group D regarding anxiety scores (p=0.07).

CONCLUSION

Exposure to dynamic VR environments should be considered as a useful adjunct to vestibular rehabilitation programs for patients with peripheral vestibular disorders and VV symptoms.

Thoracic empyema: a 12-year study from a UK tertiary cardiothoracic referral centre

Background

Empyema is an increasingly frequent clinical problem worldwide, and has substantial morbidity and mortality. Our objectives were to identify the clinical, surgical and microbiological features, and management outcomes, of empyema.

Methods

A retrospective observational study over 12 years (1999–2010) was carried out at The Heart Hospital, London, United Kingdom. Patients with empyema were identified by screening the hospital electronic ‘Clinical Data Repository’. Demographics, clinical and microbiological characteristics, underlying risk factors, peri-operative blood tests, treatment and outcomes were identified. Univariable and multivariable statistical analyses were performed.

Results

Patients (n = 406) were predominantly male (74.1%); median age = 53 years (IQR = 37–69). Most empyema were community-acquired (87.4%) and right-sided (57.4%). Microbiological diagnosis was obtained in 229 (56.4%) patients, and included streptococci (16.3%), staphylococci (15.5%), Gram-negative organisms (8.9%), anaerobes (5.7%), pseudomonads (4.4%) and mycobacteria (9.1%); 8.4% were polymicrobial. Most (68%) cases were managed by open thoracotomy and decortication. Video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) reduced hospitalisation from 10 to seven days (P = 0.0005). All-cause complication rate was 25.1%, and 28 day mortality 5.7%. Predictors of early mortality included: older age (P = 0.006), major co-morbidity (P = 0.01), malnutrition (P = 0.001), elevated red cell distribution width (RDW, P<0.001) and serum alkaline phosphatase (P = 0.004), and reduced serum albumin (P = 0.01) and haemoglobin (P = 0.04).

Conclusions

Empyema remains an important cause of morbidity and hospital admissions. Microbiological diagnosis was only achieved in just over 50% of cases, and tuberculosis is a notable causative organism. Treatment of empyema with VATS may reduce duration of hospital stay. Raised RDW appears to associate with early mortality.

Survival of HIV-infected patients admitted to the intensive care unit in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy

We retrospectively studied outcomes for HIV-infected patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) between January 1999 and June 2009. Patient demographics, receipt of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), reason for ICU admission and survival to ICU and hospital discharge were recorded. Comparison was made against outcomes for general medical patients contemporaneously admitted to the same ICU. One hundred and ninety-two HIV-infected patients had 222 ICU admissions; 116 patients required mechanical ventilation (MV) and 43 required renal replacement therapy. ICU admission was due to an HIV-associated diagnosis in 113 patients; 37 had Pneumocystis pneumonia. Survival to ICU discharge and hospital discharge for HIV-infected patients was 78% and 70%, respectively, and was 75% and 68% among 2065 general medical patients with 2274 ICU admissions; P = 0.452 and P = 0.458, respectively. HIV infection was newly diagnosed in 42 patients; their ICU and hospital survival was 69% and 57%, respectively. From multivariable analysis, factors associated with ICU survival were patient's age (odds ratio [OR] = 0.74 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.53-1.02] per 10-year increase), albumin (OR = 1.05 [1.00-1.09] per 1 g/dL increase), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score (OR = 0.55 [0.35-0.87] per 10 unit increase), receipt of HAART (OR = 2.44 [1.01-4.94]) and need for MV (OR = 0.14 [0.06-0.36]). In the era of HAART, HIV-infected patients should be offered ICU admission if it is likely to be of benefit.

Increased syphilis trend among patients in an AIDS information and prevention center

OBJECTIVE

A rebound of syphilis cases has recently been observed. This study describes the trend in syphilis infection among persons attending the AIDS information and prevention center of Valencia, Spain.

METHODS

We performed a cohort study of all persons attended from 2000 to 2006. The calendar effect was assessed by a logistic regression model adjusted by sexual and sociodemographic variables.

RESULTS

A total of 71% were heterosexuals (HT) and 19% were men who had sex with men (MSM). Among the 10,850 users of the center, the prevalence of syphilis was 0.7%. Among MSM, the prevalence of syphilis was 2.4% for the whole period and was 4.6% for 2006. Multivariate analysis showed that the risk of infection was lower in persons with a university education (OR=0.10; 95%CI: 0.03-0.59) than in those without. The risk was higher in persons who took drugs (OR=5.49; 95%CI: 1.55-19.43) or who practiced prostitution (OR=6.83; 95%CI: 2.52-18.53). In 2006, the risk of having syphilis was greater (OR=5.05; 95%CI: 1.12-22.72).

CONCLUSIONS

Syphilis infection increased substantially among MSM. In this collective, the prevalence of infection is related to educational level, prostitution and the use of non-injected recreational drugs.

The impact of childhood chronic neurological diseases on Greek families

BACKGROUND

Although the impact of childhood chronic neurological diseases (CND) on patients' psychological well-being has been increasingly addressed, little attention has been given to the influence of these conditions on family members and family functioning. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the family characteristics of Greek children suffering from CND.

METHODS

A total of 52 parents of children with CND were studied by using the Family Environmental Scale (FES), the Family Burden Scale, the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28) and a questionnaire on the knowledge of their children's illness, their coping strategies and their satisfaction with our services. During the same period, 30 parents of hospitalized children for common paediatric illnesses completed the FES. In both groups social and demographic features were registered. Appropriate statistical processes were applied to compare the above-mentioned family groups and to study the differences between the families of children with epilepsy (n=37) and the families of children with other CND (n=15).

RESULTS

Parents of children with CND discuss their problems less freely, talk less openly around home, score highly on FES subscale of Conflict and, pay more attention to ethical and religious issues and values. Furthermore, the families of children with other CND were more burdened regarding the financial state and the health status of other family members in comparison with families of children with epilepsy. In addition, families of children with epilepsy were more involved in social and recreational activities, appeared to be more knowledgeable on the availability of help in critical conditions and were more satisfied with rendered medical services, in comparison with families of children with other CND.

CONCLUSION

These preliminary findings provide important information concerning the special characteristics of Greek families of children suffering from CND, which may prove especially helpful in organizing specific support services.