A resilience-based framework for evaluating the carrying capacity of water and environmental resources under the climate change

This paper proposes a new framework for evaluating water and environmental resources carrying capacity (WERCC) based on the concept of resilience under uncertainty. First, several quantitative and qualitative criteria based on the seven principles of resilience and the Pressure-Support-State (PSS) framework are defined to incorporate the positive and negative impacts of human interventions and natural factors on water resources and the environment. The resilience principles include redundancy and diversity, managing connectivity, managing slow variables and their feedbacks, fostering complex adaptive system (CAS) thinking, encouraging learning, broadening participation, and promoting polycentric governance. After evaluating the values of the criteria and sub-criteria using a two-point evidential reasoning (TPER) approach and considering the existing uncertainties, the monthly time series of WERCC with uncertainty bands are calculated. The proposed methodology is then used to evaluate the WERCC in the Zarrinehrud river basin in Iran for a given historical period (1991-2012), and the period of 2020 to 2049 under different climate change scenarios. The results of this analysis demonstrate the inadequacy of the WERCC during the historical period and indicate that the continuation of the existing trend (base scenario, MSC0) will cause many environmental issues. Hence, several water and environmental resources management (WERM) scenarios are proposed to enhance the WERCC. These scenarios are evaluated using a multi-agent-multi-criteria decision-making method to identify the preferable WERM scenario (MSC12356). This scenario, which encompasses various projects (e.g., development and enhancement of water transfer networks and upgrading cultivation methods), improves the average value of the WERCC by 26 %. The results of the proposed methodology are compared with those of a traditional decision-making method, which considers three criteria of average WERCC, the pressure-support index, and the implementation cost. The results demonstrate that the multi-agent-multi-criteria decision-making approach provides a more cost-effective management scenario, with 30 % less cost, leading to only 3 % less carrying capacity.

Quantifying and improving flood resilience of urban drainage systems based on socio-ecological criteria

In this paper, a new framework is developed for evaluating the resilience of urban drainage systems (UDSs) under floods by proposing and quantifying some technical and socio-ecological (SE) criteria. The proposed criteria are used to quantify the seven principles of building resilience in socio-ecological systems. The criteria mainly focus on preserving diversity and multiplicity in a UDS, managing variables that gradually change over time (slow variables), improving structural and functional connectivity, maintaining system adaptability, encouraging learning, broadening participation, and promoting polycentric governance systems. For evaluating the efficiency of the proposed framework, it is applied to a real-world case study of improving resilience of the UDS in the eastern part of Tehran metropolitan area. Three scenarios for flood management are proposed based on the Low Impact Development (LID) practices which are simulated using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The Entropy method is used to consider the uncertainty in the relative importance of different criteria in estimating the flood resilience. The estimated values for the proposed criteria regarding the current drainage system in the study area show its undesirable condition in many sub-catchments. The results also show that using around 2.3 km2 of LID practices in this urban watershed can significantly improve the resilience in many sub-catchments (nearly, 30%) and reduce the total volume of the overflow (about 50%). The results also show that using the flood management scenarios, improving connectivity is the most influential factor that enhances the general resilience of the system.

A multi-model data fusion methodology for seasonal drought forecasting under uncertainty: Application of Bayesian maximum entropy

In this paper, we present a new methodology for improving the results of seasonal drought forecasting by developing a Bayesian Maximum Entropy-based fusion (BMEF) model. The BMEF model combines the forecasts done by four individual (single-source) data-driven models to achieve better outcomes. Regional drought indices of Effective Drought Index (EDI) and Multiple Standard Precipitation Index (MSPI) are forecasted using the individual forecasting models of Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and M5tree. The outputs of the individual models with the best performances are selected to be fused using the BMEF model and the results are analyzed and compared. The effect of different large-scale climate signals on rainfall and drought forecasting is analyzed and the most effective climate variables are selected as predictors in the forecasting models. Next, the uncertainty analysis on the results of the individual models as well as those of the BMEF model is carried out by deriving the probability mass functions of the drought indices using a resampling technique and Monte Carlo analysis. Finally, the results of the uncertainty analysis are evaluated to compare the performance of individual models and the BME-based fusion model in decreasing the uncertainty of seasonal drought forecasting. The performance of the proposed methodology is evaluated by using it to forecast seasonal drought conditions in the southwest of Iran. Based on the results of the uncertainty analysis, the BMEF model provides more reliable forecasts particularly for severe drought events than the individual models. It is also inferred that adding the SST to the predictors, decreases the uncertainty of drought forecasts.

A fuzzy multi-stakeholder multi-criteria methodology for water allocation and reuse in metropolitan areas

In this paper, a fuzzy decision making methodology is proposed to find a socially optimal scenario for allocating effluent of wastewater treatment plants and urban and suburban runoffs to agricultural regions and recharging aquifers. The presented methodology named modified fuzzy social choice (MFSC) considers multi-stakeholder multi-criteria problems under uncertainties inherent in a decision making process utilizing a fuzzy ranking method and the fuzzy social choice (FSC) theory. A set of water and wastewater allocation scenarios are proposed for water quantity and quality management of the study area, while six main stakeholders with conflicting utilities and different negotiation powers are involved. The proposed methodology is applied to Tehran metropolitan area, the capital city of Iran with the population of about 8 million people, to examine its applicability and effectiveness. The results shows that using fuzzy multi-stakeholder multi-criteria decision making method considering equal and different negotiation powers can lead to different outcomes. Based on the results, the MFSC method, which considers a number of decision makers having different negotiation powers, degrees of importance of decision making criteria, and some important uncertainties, performs more promising in real water resources management problems.

A social choice-based methodology for treated wastewater reuse in urban and suburban areas

Reusing treated wastewater for supplying water demands such as landscape and agricultural irrigation in urban and suburban areas has become a major water supply approach especially in regions struggling with water shortage. Due to limited available treated wastewater to satisfy all water demands, conflicts may arise in allocating treated wastewater to water users. Since there is usually more than one decision maker and more than one criterion to measure the impact of each water allocation scenario, effective tools are needed to combine individual preferences to reach a collective decision. In this paper, a new social choice (SC) method, which can consider some indifference thresholds for decision makers, is proposed for evaluating and ranking treated wastewater and urban runoff allocation scenarios to water users in urban and suburban areas. Some SC methods, namely plurality voting, Borda count, pairwise comparisons, Hare system, dictatorship, and approval voting, are applied for comparing and evaluating the results. Different scenarios are proposed for allocating treated wastewater and urban runoff to landscape irrigation, agricultural lands as well as artificial recharge of aquifer in the Tehran metropolitan Area, Iran. The main stakeholders rank the proposed scenarios based on their utilities using two different approaches. The proposed method suggests ranking of the scenarios based on the stakeholders' utilities and considering the scores they assigned to each scenario. Comparing the results of the proposed method with those of six different SC methods shows that the obtained ranks are mostly in compliance with the social welfare.

Waste load allocation in rivers under uncertainty: application of social choice procedures

In this paper, a waste load allocation model is developed which can incorporate uncertainties due to randomness as well as vagueness regarding some variables and parameters. A probabilistic water quality index is also presented and used in the waste load allocation model. For any discharger of the system, different wastewater treatment scenarios are defined. All possible combinations of these scenarios make different wastewater treatment alternatives for the system. An optimization model having the objectives of minimizing total treatment cost as well as water quality violation risk is also developed for finding the optimum treatment alternatives. The uncertainty related to the upstream river flow is addressed through considering probability distribution functions with fuzzy parameters. To deal with fuzzy and random inputs, the fuzzy transformation technique and Monte Carlo analysis are respectively used, and for each alternative, fuzzy membership function of the violation risk is obtained. The optimization model only takes into account the economic and environmental objectives and does not specifically consider the stakeholders satisfaction. To consider this and help the decision maker choose a final alternative among non-dominated solutions, three different social choice procedures which focus on stakeholders priorities are employed. The applicability and effectiveness of the methodology are evaluated by applying it to the Zarjub River in Iran facing serious water quality issues. The results indicate that the presented methodology can effectively take account of priorities of various decision makers as well as economic and environmental considerations, while incorporating multiple forms of uncertainties.

Developing a fuzzy neural network-based support vector regression (FNN-SVR) for regionalizing nitrate concentration in groundwater

The aim of this study is to develop a fuzzy neural network-based support vector regression model (FNN-SVR) for mapping crisp-input and fuzzy-output variables. In this model, an artificial neural network (ANN) estimator based on multilayer perceptron (MLP) is considered as the kernel function of the SVR, whereas asymmetric triangular fuzzy H-level sets are assumed for model parameters including weight and biases of the ANN model. A genetic algorithm (GA) with real coding is implemented to optimize the model parameters during the training phase. To evaluate the efficiency and applicability of the proposed model, it is applied for simulating and regionalizing nitrate concentration in Karaj Aquifer in Iran. The goodness-of-fit criteria indicate a better performance of the FNN-SVR compared to some benchmark models such as geostatistic techniques as well as traditional SVR models with linear, quadratic, polynomial, and Gaussian kernel functions for modeling nitrate concentrations in groundwater.

Revising river water quality monitoring networks using discrete entropy theory: the Jajrood River experience

This paper aims at evaluating and revising the spatial and temporal sampling frequencies of the water quality monitoring system of the Jajrood River in the Northern part of Tehran, Iran. This important river system supplies 23% of domestic water demand of the Tehran metropolitan area with population of more than 10 million people. In the proposed methodology, by developing a model for calculating a discrete version of pair-wise spatial information transfer indices (SITIs) for each pair of potential monitoring stations, the pair-wise SITI matrices for all water quality variables are formed. Also, using a similar model, the discrete temporal information transfer indices (TITIs) using the data of the existing monitoring stations are calculated. Then, the curves of the pair-wise SITI versus distance between monitoring stations and TITI versus time lags for all water quality variables are derived. Then, using a group pair-wise comparison matrix, the relative weights of the water quality variables are calculated. In this paper, a micro-genetic-algorithm-based optimization model with the objective of minimizing a weighted average spatial and temporal ITI is developed and for a pre-defined total number of stations, the best combination of monitoring stations is selected. The results show that the existing monitoring system of the Jajrood River should be partially strengthened and in some cases the sampling frequencies should be increased. Based on the results, the proposed approach can be used as an effective tool for evaluating, revising, or redesigning the existing river water quality monitoring systems.

Application of cooperative and non-cooperative games in large-scale water quantity and quality management: a case study

In this paper, two cooperative and non-cooperative methodologies are developed for a large-scale water allocation problem in Southern Iran. The water shares of the water users and their net benefits are determined using optimization models having economic objectives with respect to the physical and environmental constraints of the system. The results of the two methodologies are compared based on the total obtained economic benefit, and the role of cooperation in utilizing a shared water resource is demonstrated. In both cases, the water quality in rivers satisfies the standards. Comparing the results of the two mentioned approaches shows the importance of acting cooperatively to achieve maximum revenue in utilizing a surface water resource while the river water quantity and quality issues are addressed.

A game theoretic approach for interbasin water resources allocation considering the water quality issues

In this paper, a new game theoretic methodology is developed for interbasin water transfer management with regard to economic, equity, and environmental criteria. The main objective is to supply the competing users in a fair way, while the efficiency and environmental sustainability criteria are satisfied and the utilities of water users are incorporated. Firstly, an optimization model is developed to proportionally allocate water to the competing users in water donor and receiving basins based on their water demands. Secondly, for different coalitions of water users, the water shares of the coalitions are determined using an optimization model with economic objectives regarding the physical and environmental constraints of the system. In order to satisfy water-quality requirements, the impacts of decreasing the instream flow in donor basin are estimated using a water-quality simulation model, and the required treatment levels for effluents discharged into the river, downstream of the water transfer point are determined. Finally, to achieve equity and to provide sufficient incentives for water users to participate in the cooperation, some cooperative game theoretic approaches are utilized for reallocation of net benefits to water users. This model is applied to a large-scale interbasin water allocation problem including two different basins struggling with water scarcity in Iran. The results show that this model can be utilized as an effective tool for optimal interbasin water allocation management involving stakeholders with conflicting objectives subject to physical and environmental constraints.

Developing a master plan for hospital solid waste management: a case study

Disposal of about 1750tons of solid wastes per day is the result of a rapid population growth in the province of Khuzestan in the south west of Iran. Most of these wastes, especially hospital solid wastes which have contributed to the pollution of the environment in the study area, are not properly managed considering environmental standards and regulations. In this paper, the framework of a master plan for managing hospital solid wastes is proposed considering different criteria which are usually used for evaluating the pollution of hospital solid waste loads. The effectiveness of the management schemes is also evaluated. In order to rank the hospitals and determine the share of each hospital in the total hospital solid waste pollution load, a multiple criteria decision making technique, namely analytical hierarchy process (AHP), is used. A set of projects are proposed for solid waste pollution control and reduction in the proposed framework. It is partially applied for hospital solid waste management in the province of Khuzestan, Iran. The results have shown that the hospitals located near the capital city of the province, Ahvaz, produce more than 43% of the total hospital solid waste pollution load of the province. The results have also shown the importance of improving management techniques rather than building new facilities. The proposed methodology is used to formulate a master plan for hospital solid waste management.