Adjusted estimate of the prevalence of hepatitis delta virus in 25 countries and territories

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) is a satellite RNA virus that requires the hepatitis B virus (HBV) for assembly and propagation. Individuals infected with HDV progress to advanced liver disease faster than HBV-monoinfected individuals. Recent studies have estimated the global prevalence of anti-HDV antibodies among the HBV-infected population to be 5-15%. This study aimed to better understand HDV prevalence at the population level in 25 countries/territories.

METHODS

We conducted a literature review to determine the prevalence of anti-HDV and HDV RNA in hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive individuals in 25 countries/territories. Virtual meetings were held with experts from each setting to discuss the findings and collect unpublished data. Data were weighted for patient segments and regional heterogeneity to estimate the prevalence in the HBV-infected population. The findings were then combined with The Polaris Observatory HBV data to estimate the anti-HDV and HDV RNA prevalence in each country/territory at the population level.

RESULTS

After adjusting for geographical distribution, disease stage and special populations, the anti-HDV prevalence among the HBsAg+ population changed from the literature estimate in 19 countries. The highest anti-HDV prevalence was 60.1% in Mongolia. Once adjusted for the size of the HBsAg+ population and HDV RNA positivity rate, China had the highest absolute number of HDV RNA+ cases.

CONCLUSIONS

We found substantially lower HDV prevalence than previously reported, as prior meta-analyses primarily focused on studies conducted in groups/regions that have a higher probability of HBV infection: tertiary care centers, specific risk groups or geographical regions. There is large uncertainty in HDV prevalence estimates. The implementation of reflex testing would improve estimates, while also allowing earlier linkage to care for HDV RNA+ individuals. The logistical and economic burden of reflex testing on the health system would be limited, as only HBsAg+ cases would be screened.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

There is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the prevalence of hepatitis delta virus among people living with hepatitis B virus at the population level. In this study, we aimed to better understand the burden in 25 countries and territories, to refine techniques that can be used in future analyses. We found a lower prevalence in the majority of places studied than had been previously reported. These data can help inform policy makers on the need to screen people living with hepatitis B virus to find those coinfected with hepatitis delta virus and at high risk of progression, while also highlighting the pitfalls that other researchers have often fallen into.

C-reactive protein and hepatocellular carcinoma: analysis of its relationships to tumor factors

C-reactive protein (CRP) is a blood marker for inflammation and is an independent prognostic factor for many human cancers. Combined with albumin levels, it forms the basis of the Glasgow Index for cancer prognosis. We reviewed the literature on CRP and HCC and also evaluated blood CRP levels and combination CRP plus albumin levels in a large HCC cohort. In order to understand the prognostic significance of CRP, we retrospectively examined a large HCC cohort and examined the relationship of CRP levels to tumor parameters. We report, that CRP alone and CRP plus albumin combined as well, significantly correlated with parameters of HCC aggressiveness, such as maximum tumor dimension (MTD), portal vein thrombosis (PVT) and blood alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels, both as individual parameters and all parameters together (Aggressiveness Index). This extends current thinking, to suggest a possible explanation for the usefulness of blood CRP levels in HCC prognostication.

Historical epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in selected countries

Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading indicator for liver disease. New treatment options are becoming available, and there is a need to characterize the epidemiology and disease burden of HCV. Data for prevalence, viremia, genotype, diagnosis and treatment were obtained through literature searches and expert consensus for 16 countries. For some countries, data from centralized registries were used to estimate diagnosis and treatment rates. Data for the number of liver transplants and the proportion attributable to HCV were obtained from centralized databases. Viremic prevalence estimates varied widely between countries, ranging from 0.3% in Austria, England and Germany to 8.5% in Egypt. The largest viremic populations were in Egypt, with 6,358,000 cases in 2008 and Brazil with 2,106,000 cases in 2007. The age distribution of cases differed between countries. In most countries, prevalence rates were higher among males, reflecting higher rates of injection drug use. Diagnosis, treatment and transplant levels also differed considerably between countries. Reliable estimates characterizing HCV-infected populations are critical for addressing HCV-related morbidity and mortality. There is a need to quantify the burden of chronic HCV infection at the national level.

The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with today's treatment paradigm

The disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is expected to increase as the infected population ages. A modelling approach was used to estimate the total number of viremic infections, diagnosed, treated and new infections in 2013. In addition, the model was used to estimate the change in the total number of HCV infections, the disease progression and mortality in 2013-2030. Finally, expert panel consensus was used to capture current treatment practices in each country. Using today's treatment paradigm, the total number of HCV infections is projected to decline or remain flat in all countries studied. However, in the same time period, the number of individuals with late-stage liver disease is projected to increase. This study concluded that the current treatment rate and efficacy are not sufficient to manage the disease burden of HCV. Thus, alternative strategies are required to keep the number of HCV individuals with advanced liver disease and liver-related deaths from increasing.

Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease burden

The number of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections is projected to decline while those with advanced liver disease will increase. A modeling approach was used to forecast two treatment scenarios: (i) the impact of increased treatment efficacy while keeping the number of treated patients constant and (ii) increasing efficacy and treatment rate. This analysis suggests that successful diagnosis and treatment of a small proportion of patients can contribute significantly to the reduction of disease burden in the countries studied. The largest reduction in HCV-related morbidity and mortality occurs when increased treatment is combined with higher efficacy therapies, generally in combination with increased diagnosis. With a treatment rate of approximately 10%, this analysis suggests it is possible to achieve elimination of HCV (defined as a >90% decline in total infections by 2030). However, for most countries presented, this will require a 3-5 fold increase in diagnosis and/or treatment. Thus, building the public health and clinical provider capacity for improved diagnosis and treatment will be critical.

Evaluation of Barrett's esophagus with CK7, CK20, p53, Ki67, and COX2 expressions using chromoendoscopical examination

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is a complication of chronic gastroesophageal reflux disease and can be diagnosed when there is an endoscopically irregular Z-line and intestinal metaplasia (IM) in a biopsy obtained lower esophagus. It is still not clear whether IM in the gastric cardia or columnar mucosa without IM in the lower esophagus have any significance as BE, which is considered as preneoplastic. The aim of the study was to determine the immunohistochemical features of BE and columnar mucosa in the distal esophagus and also to evaluate the value of chromoendoscopy in the diagnosis of BE in a prospective manner. A total of 12 chromoendoscopic biopsies (six from normal-looking unstained esophagus and six from esophageal mucosa stained with methyl blue suspicious of BE) were taken from 111 cases who underwent endoscopy because of a variety of upper gastrointestinal symptoms. Immunohistochemical analysis was performed using CK7, CK20, p53, Ki67, and cyclooxygenase 2 (COX2). Of the 111 cases, 19 cases with carcinoma (nine adeno, six squamous, four undifferentiated carcinomas) and 17 cases with normal squamous epithelium were excluded, while 75 cases showing columnar epithelium, including 46 (61.3%) with IM and 29 (38,7%) without IM, were further evaluated immunohistochemically. CK7 was observed in surface, crypt, and glandular epithelium, whereas CK20 was expressed in surface and superficial crypt epithelium. No significant difference was observed between the Barrett and non-Barrett type of CK7/20 staining pattern (P > 0,05). Expression of p53 did not show any difference between BE and columnar mucosa without IM, whereas COX2 expression was significantly increased in BE (P < 0.05) in comparison with columnar mucosa without IM. Ki67 expression was significiantly higher both in upper and lower crypts in BE (P < 0.05). The present study showed that a Barrett pattern does not seem to exist; however, the analysis of COX2 expression and the Ki67 proliferation fraction by immunohistochemistry can be used to separate BE from non-Barrett's metaplasia of the distal esophagus. In our point of view, the immunohistochemical detection of p53 expression in Barrett's metaplasia stage is useless as a marker for early detection of high-risk patients.