The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East is increasing. We aimed to assess the changes in the burden of neurological conditions in this super-region to aid with future decision making.

METHODS

In this analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 data, we examined temporal trends of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; deaths and disabilities combined), deaths, incident cases, and prevalent cases of 14 major neurological conditions and eight subtypes in 21 countries in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region. Additionally, we assessed neurological DALYs due to 22 potentially modifiable risk factors, within four levels of classification, during the period 1990-2019. We used a Bayesian modelling estimation approach, and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates on the basis of the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 1000 draws from the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 441·1 thousand (95% UI 347·2-598·4) deaths and 17·6 million (12·5-24·7) neurological DALYs in north Africa and the Middle East. The leading causes of neurological DALYs were stroke, migraine, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (hereafter dementias). In north Africa and the Middle East in 2019, 85·8% (82·6-89·1) of stroke and 39·9% (26·4-54·7) of dementia age-standardised DALYs were attributable to modifiable risk factors. North Africa and the Middle East had the highest age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 population due to dementia (387·0 [172·0-848·5]), Parkinson's disease (84·4 [74·7-103·2]), and migraine (601·4 [107·0-1371·8]) among the global super-regions. Between 1990 and 2019, there was a decrease in the age-standardised DALY rates related to meningitis (-75·8% [-81·1 to -69·5]), tetanus (-88·2% [-93·9 to -76·1]), stroke (-32·0% [-39·1 to -23·3]), intracerebral haemorrhage (-51·7% [-58·2 to -43·8]), idiopathic epilepsy (-26·2% [-43·6 to -1·1]), and subarachnoid haemorrhage (-62·8% [-71·6 to -41·0]), but for all other neurological conditions there was no change. During 1990-2019, the number of DALYs due to dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, ischaemic stroke, and headache disorder (ie, migraine and tension-type headache) more than doubled in the super-region, and the burden of years lived with disability (YLDs), incidence, and prevalence of multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, Parkinson's disease, and ischaemic stroke increased both in age-standardised rate and count. During this period, the absolute burden of YLDs due to head and spinal injuries almost doubled.

INTERPRETATION

The increasing burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East accompanies the increasing ageing population. Stroke and dementia are the primary causes of neurological disability and death, primarily attributable to common modifiable risk factors. Synergistic, systematic, lifetime, and multi-sectoral interventions aimed at preventing or mitigating the burden are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Persian, Arabic and Turkish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The relationship between mobile phone addiction and depression, anxiety, and sleep quality in medical students

This study investigates the prevalence of mobile phone addiction among medical students and its relationship with depression, anxiety, and sleep quality. The study was conducted at Mashhad University of Medical Sciences from 2019 to 2021, and it included medical students at four different levels of training. Participants were selected using a stratified random sampling method. All subjects completed the Mobile Phone Addiction Scale, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), Beck Depression Inventory, and Beck Anxiety Inventory through online electronic self-report questionnaires. Overall, 355 medical students were included in the study, with 203 (57.2%) being female. Mild and severe mobile phone addiction was reported by 83.7 and 2.5% of the students, respectively. Furthermore, the study's findings revealed significantly higher sleep quality disorder, depression, and anxiety scores among students with severe mobile phone addiction compared to other participants ( P  < 0.001, P  = 0.007, and P  < 0.001, respectively). Although mobile phone addiction was prevalent, severe addiction was rare among medical students. Nevertheless, severe addiction was associated with an increased prevalence of mental health problems and sleep disturbances, emphasizing the importance of interventions aimed at reducing mobile phone addiction and improving mental health.

A monitoring framework for health care processes using Generalized Additive Models and Auto-Encoders

In recent years, there has been a considerable focus on developing effective methods for monitoring health care processes. Utilizing Statistical Process Monitoring (SPM) approaches, particularly risk-adjusted control charts, has emerged as a highly promising approach for achieving robust frameworks for this aim. Considering risk-adjusted control charts, longitudinal health care process data is typically monitored by establishing a regression relationship between various risk factors (explanatory variables) and patient outcomes (response variables). While the majority of prior research has primarily employed logistic models in risk-adjusted control charts, there are more intricate health care processes that necessitate the incorporation of both parametric and nonparametric risk factors. In such scenarios, the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) proves to be a suitable choice, albeit it often introduces higher computational complexity and associated challenges. Surprisingly, there are limited instances where researchers have proposed advancements in this direction. The primary objective of this paper is to introduce an SPM framework for monitoring health care processes using a GAM over time, coupled with a novel risk-adjusted control chart driven by machine learning techniques. This control chart is implemented on a data set encompassing two stroke types: ischemic and hemorrhagic. The key focus of this study is to monitor the stability of the relationship between stroke types and predefined explanatory variables over time within this data set. Extensive simulation results, based on real data from patients with acute stroke, demonstrate the remarkable flexibility of the proposed method in terms of its detection capabilities compared to conventional approaches.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Global burden of peripheral artery disease and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Peripheral artery disease is a growing public health problem. We aimed to estimate the global disease burden of peripheral artery disease, its risk factors, and temporospatial trends to inform policy and public measures.

METHODS

Data on peripheral artery disease were modelled using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database. Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality estimates of peripheral artery disease were extracted from GBD 2019. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rate of peripheral artery disease attributed to modifiable risk factors were also assessed.

FINDINGS

In 2019, the number of people aged 40 years and older with peripheral artery disease was 113 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99·2-128·4), with a global prevalence of 1·52% (95% UI 1·33-1·72), of which 42·6% was in countries with low to middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI). The global prevalence of peripheral artery disease was higher in older people, (14·91% [12·41-17·87] in those aged 80-84 years), and was generally higher in females than in males. Globally, the total number of DALYs attributable to modifiable risk factors in 2019 accounted for 69·4% (64·2-74·3) of total peripheral artery disease DALYs. The prevalence of peripheral artery disease was highest in countries with high SDI and lowest in countries with low SDI, whereas DALY and mortality rates showed U-shaped curves, with the highest burden in the high and low SDI quintiles.

INTERPRETATION

The total number of people with peripheral artery disease has increased globally from 1990 to 2019. Despite the lower prevalence of peripheral artery disease in males and low-income countries, these groups showed similar DALY rates to females and higher-income countries, highlighting disproportionate burden in these groups. Modifiable risk factors were responsible for around 70% of the global peripheral artery disease burden. Public measures could mitigate the burden of peripheral artery disease by modifying risk factors.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Association between levels of serum and urinary B cell-activating factor and systemic lupus erythematosus disease activity

Objectives

This study investigated the correlation between serum and urinary B cell-activating factor (BAFF) levels and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) disease activity.

Patients and methods

This case-control study was conducted with 87 participants between December 2020 and September 2021. Sixty-two SLE patients who fulfilled the eligibility criteria were enrolled. SLE patients were categorized into active (n=34) and inactive (n=28) groups based on their Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 (SLEDAI-2K) scores. The control group consisted of 25 healthy subjects. Serum and urine samples were collected for the measurement of BAFF levels. Finally, the relationship between these variables and SLE disease activity was investigated.

Results

The mean age of active (SLEDAI-2K >4) and inactive (SLEDAI-2K ≤4) SLE patients and healthy individuals were 32.8±7.8, 32.5±6.8, and 31.7±7.8 years, respectively (p=0.62). The median serum BAFF (s-BAFF) and urinary BAFF (u-BAFF) in active lupus patients (10.4 [2.3] ng/mL and 8.2 [3.7] ng/mL, respectively) were significantly higher than in inactive lupus patients (6 (7.1) ng/mL and 1.7 (4.7) ng/mL, respectively; p<0.001) and the control group (3 (3.7) ng/mL and 1.6 (2.2) ng/mL, respectively; p<0.001). However, s-BAFF (p=0.07) and u-BAFF (p=0.43) did not significantly differ between the inactive group and the control group. A significant positive correlation was observed between s-BAFF (r=0.41 and p=0.001) and u-BAFF (r=0.78 and p<0.001) levels and the SLEDAI-2K score.

Conclusion

There is a significant positive correlation between serum and urinary BAFF levels and SLE disease activity. Furthermore, significantly higher levels of s-BAFF and u-BAFF have been observed in patients with active lupus compared to inactive and healthy subjects, indicating a possible role for BAFF in the pathogenesis of SLE disease activity.

Oral Nicorandil effectively attenuates the incidence of contrast-induced nephropathy in patients undergoing cardiac catheterization: a randomized, controlled, open-label clinical trial

PURPOSE

The contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) rate is increasing globally and can increase the rate of mortality and long-term problems. This study aims to determine the effect of Nicorandil on preventing CIN among patients undergoing cardiac catheterization.

METHODS

In a controlled randomized open-labeled clinical trial, all included patients undergoing cardiac catheterization due to coronary problems and possessing at least two risk factors of contrast nephropathy were divided into two groups of intervention and control. The intervention group received oral Nicorandil and normal saline, while the control group was treated with intravenous normal saline. Serum creatinine was measured before and 48 h after the procedure, and patients were assessed regarding CIN.

RESULTS

In this study, 172 patients entered each group; 41.86% and 45.34% were male in the control and Nicorandil groups. We showed that the incidence of CIN was meaningfully lower in the Nicorandil group (12, 7%) than in the control group (34, 19.8%, P = 0.001). Additionally, the incidence of CIN was notably lower in the female patients in the Nicorandil (85.7%) than in the control group (14.3%, P = 0.001); however, these numbers were not significantly different among men (64.0% and 36.0%, respectively, P = 0.850). After the injection of the contrast agent, the serum levels of blood urea nitrogen (P = 0.248), creatinine (P = 0.081), and glomerular filtration rate (P = 0.386) showed no significant differences between the control and Nicorandil groups. Multivariate regression analysis showed that Nicorandil significantly lowered the odds of CIN [odds ratio (OR) = 0.299, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.149-0.602; P = 0.001] after adjustment for baseline creatinine (OR = 1.404, 95% CI 0.431-4.572; P = 0.574).

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate that pre-procedural treatment with Nicorandil may be effective against CIN in contrast to agent-exposed patients.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Association of polymorphisms of renin angiotensin system and endothelial nitric oxide synthase genes with premature cardiovascular disease in an Iranian population

INTRODUCTION

The study of polymorphisms and their relationship with diseases is very important for risk assessment. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between early risk of coronary artery disease(CAD) with renin-angiotensin(RAS) genes and endothelial nitric oxide synthase(eNOS) in a sample of the Iranian population.

METHODS & MATERIALS

In this cross-sectional study, 63 patients with premature CAD and 72 healthy samples were enrolled. Polymorphism of the promotor region of eNOS- and ACE-I/D (Angiotensin Converting Enzyme-I/D) polymorphism was evaluated. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test and PCR-RFLP (Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism) was performed for ACE and eNOS-786 gene, respectively.

RESULTS

The frequency of deletion(D) for the ACE gene was significantly higher in patients(96% versus 61%; P < 0.001). Conversely, the number of defective C alleles for the eNOS gene was similar in both groups (p > 0.9).

CONCLUSION

ACE polymorphism seems to be an independent risk factor for premature CAD.

Accuracy of fine-needle aspiration cytopathology to differentiate malignant and benign thyroid nodules with ≥4 cm diameter: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Thyroid nodules (TN) are commonly present in the general population and are usually pathologically benign. An initial diagnosis with fine-needle aspiration (FNA) cytopathology could help clinical decision-making with fewer complications. As the previous studies suggest surgical procedures for >4 cm TNs, we aimed to investigate the accuracy of preoperative FNA cytology to predict malignancy risk in these nodules in a sample of the Iranian population.

METHODS

Patients with ≥4 cm TNs who had preoperative FNA cytology, underwent nodulectomy and had a histopathological report were included. Each patient's preoperative demographic, ultrasonographic, and cytology data were gathered. After surgery, resected samples were assessed pathologically and diagnosed as benign or malignant. Finally, data were analyzed to evaluate the presurgical accuracy of the FNA cytology.

RESULTS

We identified 41 (51.25%) patients with malignant legions among our study population (N = 80). The pathology reports were indeterminate in 3 patients with follicular neoplasm. Bethesda scores were substantially higher in patients with malignancy. The sensitivity, specificity, and false-negative rate of FNA cytology reports using the Bethesda system were 73.7%, 74.2%, and 26.3%, respectively. There was no association between malignancy and TNs' size, neither their volume nor their highest diameter.

CONCLUSION

FNA cytology is not as sensitive and specific in nodules>4 cm as in smaller ones. However, it can still be used alongside other diagnostic procedures in malignancy screening. Clinicians should make more complex decisions considering various influential factors to avoid missing malignant lesions and reduce diverse probable complications of highly invasive diagnostic surgery. Further prospective research on >4 cm TNs and their multiple features' association with malignancy is required for more precise judgment.

Evaluation of the effects of isoproterenol on arrhythmia recurrence following catheter ablation in patients with atrioventricular nodal re-entrant tachycardia: A randomized controlled clinical trial

We aimed to determine the effects of isoproterenol on arrhythmia recurrence in atrioventricular nodal re-entrant tachycardia (AVNRT) patients treated with catheter ablation. The present randomized controlled clinical trial was conducted on AVNRT patients candidates for radiofrequency ablation (RFA). The patients were randomly assigned to receive isoproterenol (0.5-4 μg/min) or not (control group) for arrhythmia re-induction after ablation. The results of the electrophysiological (EP) study, the ablation parameters, and the arrhythmia recurrence rate were recorded. We evaluated 206 patients (53 males and 153 females) with a mean (SD) age of 49.87 (15.5) years in two groups of isoproterenol (n = 103) and control (n = 103). No statistically significant difference was observed between the two studied groups in age, gender, EP study, and ablation parameters. The success rate of ablation was 100% in both groups. During ~16.5 months of follow-up, one patient (1%) in the isoproterenol group and four patients (3.8%) in the control group experienced AVNRT recurrence (HR = 0.245; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.043-1.418; p = .173). Based on the Kaplan-Meier analysis, there was no significant difference in the incidence rate of arrhythmia recurrence during the follow-up period between the two studied groups (p = .129). Additionally, there were no significant differences between the arrhythmia's recurrence according to age, gender, junctional rhythm, type of AVNRT arrhythmia, and DAVN persistence after ablation. Although isoproterenol administration for arrhythmia re-induction after ablation did not alleviate the treatment outcomes and arrhythmia recurrence following RFA in AVNRT patients, further studies with a larger sample size and a longer duration of follow-up are necessary.

The association of maternal food quality score (FQS) with breast milk nutrient content and antioxidant content of infant urine: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Breast milk (BM) is a complex fluid with a variable composition within women over time and between women in the population. The BM compositional differences are likely to be partly due to maternal dietary patterns. This study aimed to evaluate food quality score (FQS) in lactating mothers and its association with quality indicators of BM and antioxidant content of infant urine.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was undertaken in 350 lactating women aged 20 to 35 years. Data on dietary intake was collected using a validated food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) containing 65 food items. The FQS was calculated by integrating the scores obtained from healthy and unhealthy food groups. Subjects were categorized according to FQS adherence, with the greatest adherence being allocated to the third tertile and those with the lowest FQS in the first tertile. Antioxidant activity of the BM and infant urine samples was assessed using the Ferric reducing antioxidant power (FRAP), 2, 2'-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH), thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARs), and Ellman's assay. The total content of BM protein, calcium, and triglyceride was measured using standard biochemical kits.

RESULTS

BM from mothers from the third tertile of FQS contained significantly higher DPPH, thiol, calcium, and protein levels compared to BM from those in the lowest tertile (p˂0.05). Infant urinary DPPH and FRAP was also significantly higher in the highest tertile vs. the lowest tertile (p˂0.05).

CONCLUSION

High maternal adherence to the FQS was associated with a high BM quality and antioxidant content of infant urine.

The effects of low‐dose anthracycline‐based chemotherapy on the levels of serum NT‐proBNP level and left ventricular systolic and diastolic dysfunctions: A prospective observational study

Background and Aims

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Central nervous system infections in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: a systematic review and meta-analysis

We aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies on central nervous system (CNS) infections in patients with SLE, in order to describe their clinical and microbiological characteristics, and outcomes. A systematic search of PubMed/Medline and Embase electronic databases was performed (March 2021) to identify all published studies on CNS infections and their characteristics in patients with SLE. A random-effects model was adopted and findings were reported with 95% CI. Overall, 6 studies involving 17 751 patients with SLE and 209 SLE cases with CNS infection were included in our meta-analysis. The frequency rate of CNS infections in patients with SLE was 0.012 (95% CI: 0.008 to 0.018). Meningitis was the most common clinical syndrome (93.5%, n=109/114, 95% CI: 82.6% to 97.8%) and Cryptococcus neoformans (35.9%, n=55, 95% CI: 27.2% to 45.7%) and Mycobacterium tuberculosis (27.1%, n=43, 95% CI: 14.6% to 44.8%) were the most common causative pathogens. Our patient-pool showed a mean SLE Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) score of 7.9 (95% CI: 6.1 to 9.6), while 92.4% (n=72/76, 95% CI: 83.0% to 96.8%) of cases were on oral systemic corticosteroids, with a prednisone equivalent mean daily dose of 30.9 mg/day (95% CI: 18.0 to 43.7). Our meta-analysis revealed a mortality rate of 29.0% (95% CI: 15.0% to 48.6%). Clinicians should maintain a high index of suspicion for cryptococcal and tuberculosis (TB) meningitis in patients with SLE with suspected CNS infection, particularly in those with higher SLEDAI and on higher doses of systemic corticosteroids. In conclusion, initiation of empiric antituberculous treatment for patients with SLE who are highly suspected to have CNS TB is warranted while awaiting the results of diagnostic tests. Antifungals might also be potentially useful empirically in patients with SLE who are suspected to have fungal CNS infections. However, with respect to side effects such as toxicity and high cost of antifungals, decision regarding early antifungal therapy should be guided by early and less time-consuming fungal diagnostic tests.

Conceptual Method of Temperature Sensation in Bionic Hand by Extraordinary Perceptual Phenomenon

Lack of temperature sensation of myoelectric prosthetic hand limits the daily activities of amputees. To this end, a non-invasive temperature sensation method is proposed to train amputees to sense temperature with psychophysical sensory substitution. In this study, 22 healthy participants took part besides 5 amputee participants. The duration time of the study was 31 days with five test steps according to the Leitner technique. An adjustable temperature mug and a Peltier were used to change the temperature of the water/phantom digits to induce temperature to participants. Also, to isolate the surroundings and show colors, a Virtual Reality (VR) glass was employed. The statistical results conducted are based on the response of participants with questionnaire method. Using Chi-square tests, it is concluded that participants answer the experiment significantly correctly using the Leitner technique (P value < 0.05). Also, by applying the "Repeated Measures ANOVA", it is noticed that the time of numbness felt by participants had significant (P value < 0.001) difference. Participants could remember lowest and highest temperatures significantly better than other temperatures (P value < 0.001); furthermore, the well-trained amputee participant practically using the prosthesis with 72.58% could identify object's temperature with only once time experimenting the color temperature.

Case-Fatality and Functional Outcome after Subarachnoid Hemorrhage (SAH) in INternational STRoke oUtComes sTudy (INSTRUCT)

BACKGROUND

There are few large population-based studies of outcomes after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) than other stroke types.

METHODS

We pooled data from 13 population-based stroke incidence studies (10 studies from the INternational STRroke oUtComes sTudy (INSTRUCT) and 3 new studies; N=657). Primary outcomes were case-fatality and functional outcome (modified Rankin scale score 3-5 [poor] vs. 0-2 [good]). Harmonized patient-level factors included age, sex, health behaviours (e.g. current smoking at baseline), comorbidities (e.g.history of hypertension), baseline stroke severity (e.g. NIHSS >7) and year of stroke. We estimated predictors of case-fatality and functional outcome using Poisson regression and generalized estimating equations using log-binomial models respectively at multiple timepoints.

RESULTS

Case-fatality rate was 33% at 1 month, 43% at 1 year, and 47% at 5 years. Poor functional outcome was present in 27% of survivors at 1 month and 15% at 1 year. In multivariable analysis, predictors of death at 1-month were age (per decade increase MRR 1.14 [1.07-1.22]) and SAH severity (MRR 1.87 [1.50-2.33]); at 1 year were age (MRR 1.53 [1.34-1.56]), current smoking (MRR 1.82 [1.20-2.72]) and SAH severity (MRR 3.00 [2.06-4.33]) and; at 5 years were age (MRR 1.63 [1.45-1.84]), current smoking (MRR 2.29 [1.54-3.46]) and severity of SAH (MRR 2.10 [1.44-3.05]). Predictors of poor functional outcome at 1 month were age (per decade increase RR 1.32 [1.11-1.56]) and SAH severity (RR 1.85 [1.06-3.23]), and SAH severity (RR 7.09 [3.17-15.85]) at 1 year.

CONCLUSION

Although age is a non-modifiable risk factor for poor outcomes after SAH, however, severity of SAH and smoking are potential targets to improve the outcomes.

Echocardiographic parameters in patients with and without hypotension during dialysis

Introduction: Hypotension during dialysis is a common complication of hemodialysis and is associated with increased patient mortality and morbidity. Intradialytic hypotension is a decrease in systolic BP ≥20 mm Hg or a reduction in mean arterial pressure by 10 mm Hg along with clinical events and the need for correction. This study compares cardiac function, using transthoracic echocardiography with strain modality in patients with intradialytic hypotension with those without hypotension during dialysis.

Methods: We studied 60 patients with chronic renal failure undergoing regular hemodialysis from April 2018 to February 2019. We compared thirty patients in the intradialytic hypotension group, with the remaining 30 patients in the control group. We did transthoracic echocardiography a day after hemodialysis using conventional, tissue doppler, and strain imaging.

Results: Early diastolic mitral annulus velocity (e’) was lower in the intradialytic hypotension group in comparison with the control group which their difference was statistically significant (5.540 ± 1.51 versus 6.920 ± 1.98, P value:0.007) Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction (LVEF) was also significantly lower in the intradialytic hypotension group (51.07 ± 8.714 versus 59.43 ± 4.133, P value < 0.001). Global Longitudinal Strain (GLS) was significantly lower in the intradialytic hypotension group (-14.17 ± 2.79 versus -18.99 ± 2.25, P value < 0.001). The receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curve point-coordinates that GLS of -16.85 and lower (more positive) has 83% sensitivity and 87% specificity for intradialytic hypotension.

Conclusion: The echocardiographic assessment could be used as a tool for the prediction of hypotension during dialysis.

Self-perceived acute psychological stress and risk of mortality, recurrence and disability after stroke: Mashhad Stroke Incidence Study

This longitudinal study was designed to evaluate the association between acute pre-stroke stress and the severity stroke and its outcomes including mortality, recurrence, disability and functional dependency. Patients with first-ever stroke (FES) were recruited from the Mashhad Stroke Incidence Study. Patients were asked about any acute severe pre-stroke stress in the 2 weeks prior to index stroke. Disability and functional disability were defined using modified the Rankin Scale and Barthel Index, respectively. We used logistic and ordinal regression tests to assess the association between acute pre-stroke stress and study outcomes. Among 624 patients with FES, 169 reported acute pre-stroke stress. Patients with acute pre-stroke stress were younger than those without stress (60.7 ± 14.4 vs. 66.2 ± 14.7; p < 0.001). The frequency of traditional vascular risk factors was not different in patients with and without acute pre-stroke stress. We did not find any association between acute pre-stroke stress and stroke outcomes. Although acute stress was common in our cohort, our results did not support an association between acute pre-stroke stress and the severity of stroke at admission and long-term stroke outcomes.

Assessment of insulin resistance in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism before and after Parathyroidectomy

Background

Primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) can lead to renal and skeletal disorders, as well as insulin resistance and impaired glucose metabolism. The current study aimed to assess the effects of parathyroidectomy on insulin resistance in patients with PHPT.

Materials and Methods

The present study was conducted on 65 patients with PHPT and indications for parathyroidectomy who were referred to the endocrinology clinics of Mashhad University of Medical Sciences. Thereafter, the demographic characteristics of the patients were recorded. Blood tests, including haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), fasting blood glucose (FBG) and insulin levels, were assessed one week before and three months after the surgery. The insulin resistance score (HOMA‐IR) was calculated and compared using the relevant formula.

Results

A total of 65 participants with a mean age of 45.44 ± 9.59 years were included in the current study. In one‐month postoperative tests, mean scores of FBG (p < .05), insulin level (p < .05) and HbA1c (p < .05) were significantly reduced. Moreover, the HOMA‐IR index decreased in 51 patients after the surgery.

Conclusion

According to our findings, parathyroidectomy can be effective in the reduction of insulin resistance and corresponding complications in patients with PHPT in the present short‐term study. However, it has yet to be confirmed as a treatment method for insulin resistance in these patients. Future long‐term studies are required to be done to investigate the effect of parathyroidectomy on insulin resistance.

The present study aimed to assess the effects of parathyroidectomy on insulin resistance in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT). The present study was conducted on 65 patients with PHPT and indications for parathyroidectomy. Demographic characteristics of the patients were recorded. Blood tests, including fasting blood sugar (FBS), haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and insulin levels, were assessed one week before and three months after the surgery. The Homeostatic Model Assessment for Insulin Resistance (HOMA‐IR index) was calculated. In one‐month postoperative tests, mean scores of FBS (p < .05), insulin level (p < .05) and HbA1c (p < 0.05) were significantly reduced compared to these variables prior to the surgery. Moreover, the HOMA‐IR index decreased in 51 patients after the surgery. As evidenced by the results of the present study, parathyroidectomy can be effective in reducing insulin resistance and its complications in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT).

METHYLENE BLUE FOR TREATMENT OF HOSPITALIZED COVID-19 PATIENTS: A RANDOMIZED, CONTROLLED, OPEN-LABEL CLINICAL TRIAL, PHASE 2

Background

There is no pharmacological intervention on the treatment of hypoxemia and respiratory distress in COVID-19 patients.

Objective

The objective of the study was to study the effect of the reduced form of methylene blue (MB) on the improvement of oxygen saturation (SpO₂) and respiratory rate (RR).

Methods

In an academic medical center, 80 hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19 were randomly assigned to receive either oral MB along with standard of care (SOC) (MB group, n = 40) or SOC only (SOC group, n=40). The primary outcomes were SpO₂ and RR on the 3^rd and 5^th days. The secondary outcomes were hospital stay and mortality within 28 days.

Results

In the MB group, a significant improvement in SpO₂ and RR was observed on the 3^rd day (for both, p < 0.0001) and also the 5^th day (for both, p < 0.0001). In the SOC group, there was no significant improvement in SpO₂ (p = 0.24) and RR (p = 0.20) on the 3^rd day, although there was a significant improvement of SpO₂ (p = 0.002) and RR (p = 0.01) on the 5^th day. In the MB group in comparison to the SOC group, the rate ratio of increased SpO₂ was 13.5 and 2.1 times on the 3^rd and 5^th days, respectively. In the MB group compared with the SOC group, the rate ratio of RR improvement was 10.1 and 3.7 times on the 3^rd and 5^th days, respectively. The hospital stay was significantly shortened in the MB group (p = 0.004), and the mortality was 12.5% and 22.5% in the MB and SOC groups, respectively.

Conclusions

The addition of MB to the treatment protocols significantly improved SpO₂ and respiratory distress in COVID-19 patients, which resulted in decreased hospital stay and mortality. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04370288.

Ankylosing Spondylitis and risk of Cardiac Arrhythmia and Conduction Disorders: A systematic review and meta analysis

Objective

The objective of this study isto assess the association between ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and risk of heart conduction disorders and arrhythmia.

Methods

PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases were systematically searched for observational studies that investigated the association between AS and risk of heart conduction disorders and arrhythmia with no language or date restrictions until September 16, 2019. We used random- and fixed-effects models to pool the results of the studies. Publication bias was assessed by Egger’s test. Subgroup analysis was carried out based on the study design. A p-value less than 0.05 was considered significant. Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) software was used to perform meta-analysis.

Results

After removing duplicates, we reviewed 135 articles. Finally, we included seven articles in our meta-analysis, of which four studies reported AV block and any conductive abnormality and three focused on atrial fibrillation and any arrhythmia. Based on our meta-analysis, an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (RR: 1.85, 95%CI: 1.15-2.98) and atrioventricular block (OR: 3.46, 95%CI: 1.09-10.93) was found in AS subjects compared to the general population. In a subgroup analysis based on study design, we found a greater association between AS and atrioventricular block in cohort studies (RR: 5.14, 95%CI: 1.001-26.50) compared to cross-sectional ones. However, we did not find any association between AS and any arrhythmia (OR=3.36, 95% CI: 0.93-12.15), or conduction disorders (OR: 0.64, 95%CI: 0.38-1.06). No publication bias was found.

Conclusion

Our results support an association between AS and a higher risk of atrial fibrillation and atrioventricular block.

The Association between Substance Use Disorders and Long-Term Outcome of Stroke: Results from a Population-Based Study of Stroke among 450,229 Urban Citizens

INTRODUCTION

Little is known regarding long-term stroke outcomes in patients with substance use disorder (SUD). Based on anecdotal data, some individuals use illicit drugs, particularly opioids, in an attempt to reduce stroke mortality, disability, or recurrence. This study is aimed to assess the effect of SUD on stroke outcomes.

METHODS

Patients were recruited from the Mashhad Stroke Incidence Study, a population-based study of stroke in Iran. For a period of 1 year, all patients with first-ever stroke (FES) were recruited and then followed up for the next 5 years. Disability and functional dependency were defined using modified Rankin Scale (>2) and Barthel Index (<60), respectively. We compared the cumulative rates of mortality in follow-up points using the log-rank test. We used multivariable logistic, Cox regression and competing risk models to assess adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) of stroke disability, functional dependency, mortality, and recurrence among those with a history of SUD.

RESULTS

595 FES patients (mean age of 64.6 ± 14.8 years) were recruited in this study. Eighty-one (13.6%) were current substance users, including opium (n = 68), naswar (n = 5, 6.1%), hashish (n = 1), heroin (n = 1), and (n = 7) others. The frequency of vascular risk factors was similar between the SUD and non-SUD groups, except for a higher rate of cigarette smoking in the SUD group (p < 0.001). After adjusting for various sociodemographic variables, vascular risk factors, and the severity of stroke at admission, SUD increased the 3-month (aHR: 1.60, CI: 1.01-2.49), 1-year (aHR: 1.73, CI: 1.20-2.65), and 5-year (aHR: 1.72, CI: 1.23-2.35) poststroke mortality risk. We did not observe a significant change in the risk of stroke recurrence, disability, and functional dependency in those with a history of SUD.

CONCLUSION

SUD increased the hazard ratio of stroke mortality with no effect on the disability rate. The public should be advised about the potential harm of substance abuse.

Secular trends of ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and dementia in high-income countries from 1990 to 2017: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

We assessed secular trends in the burden of ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and dementia in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.

METHODS

Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2017, we compared sex-specific and age-standardized rates of disability-adjusted life years (DALY); mortality, incidence, and prevalence of IHD and stroke; and dementia per 100,000 people, in the world, OECD countries, and Canada.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2017, the crude incidence number of IHD, stroke, and dementia increased 52%, 76%, and 113%, respectively. Likewise, the prevalence of IHD (75%), stroke (95%), and dementia (119%) increased worldwide. In addition during the study period, the crude global number of deaths of IHD increased 52%, stroke by 41%, and dementia by 146% (9, 6, and 3 million deaths in 2017, respectively). Despite an increase in the crude number of these diseases, the global age-standardized incidence rate of IHD, stroke, and dementia decreased by -27%, - 11%, and - 5%, respectively. Moreover, there was a decline in their age-standardized DALY rates (- 1.17%, - 1.32%, and - 0.23% per year, respectively) and death rates (- 1.29%, - 1.46%, and - 0.17% per year, respectively), with sharper downward trends in Canada and OECD countries. Almost all trends flattened during the last decade.

CONCLUSIONS

From 1990 to 2017, the age-standardized burden of IHD, stroke, and dementia decreased, more prominently in OECD countries than the world. However, their rising crude numbers mainly due to population growth and ageing require urgent identification of reversible risk and protective factors.

Abstract P38: Pooled Analysis of Long and Short Term Outcomes After Subarachnoid Hemorrhage - International Stroke Outcomes Study (INSTRUCT)

Background: Outcomes after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) have been rarely examined in large cohorts.

Methods: This is an extension of the International Stroke Outcomes Study (INSTRUCT) pooling 13 ‘ideal’ stroke incidence studies (n=657 with SAH from 1993-2017, median age 56 years; 46% men). The primary outcomes were mortality and functional outcome (mRS score 3-5). Harmonized study factors included age, sex, behaviors (current smoking, alcohol intake), comorbidities (history of hypertension, ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation), stroke severity (e.g. NIHSS score) and year of stroke. In the pooled dataset, we estimated predictors of mortality using Poisson regression, to estimate incidence rate ratio (IRR) at 1 month (11 studies), 1 year (12 studies) and 5 years (7 studies). Generalized equation estimates in the log-binomial family were used to calculate risk ratios (RRs) for predictors of poor functional outcome at 1 month (5 studies) and 1 year (8 studies).

Results: Mortality was 33% at 1 month, 43% at 1 year, and 47% at 5 years (Fig 1). Poor functional outcome was 25% at 1 month and 15% at 1 year (Fig 1). In multivariable analysis, age and stroke severity were associated with mortality at all time points, together with current smoking at 1 and 5 years, and history of hypertension at 5 years (Fig 2). Poor functional outcome was predicted by age (RR 1.03; 95% CI 1.01-1.04) at 1 month and by age (RR 1.04; 95% CI 1.00-1.08) and stroke severity (RR 1.94; 95% CI 1.02-2.87) at 1 year.

Conclusion: Risk factors that predict SAH incidence including hypertension and smoking make outcomes worse. Better management of older patients and those with severe strokes could improve outcomes after SAH.

Perioperative Changes in Platelet Counts During Adult Liver Transplantation

OBJECTIVES

Thrombocytopenia is a common problem among liver transplant recipients. However, various patterns of change in platelet counts during adult liver transplant have been reported in the literature. This study aimed to evaluate alterations in platelet count according to the surgical phase (preanhepatic, anhepatic, after reperfusion) and during the early postoperative period of liver transplant.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Perioperative data from 100 patients undergoing deceased donor liver transplant were reviewed, including platelet count-related data. Platelet counts were measured at predefined time points throughout the procedure: immediately before induction of anesthesia, at the early neo-hepatic stage (10 min after graft reperfusion), immediately after admission to the intensive care unit posttransplant, and 6 hours posttransplant. Platelet counts were then measured daily during stay in the intensive care unit.

RESULTS

Mean baseline platelet count before transplant and anesthesia was 97.92 × 109/L. A peak platelet count was seen in the early neo-hepatic stage. Platelet counts then decreased sharply in the first 6 hours after transplant. A slight decrease in platelet counts continued until the third day after the surgery; finally, on day 6 posttransplant, platelet counts increased significantly.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed a significant sudden increase in platelet counts during the early neo-hepatic phase in many liver transplant recipients. Therefore, our results suggest that it is reasonable to avoid platelet transfusion for most liver transplant recipients during transplant surgery.

How Good Is Trans Abdominal Ultrasound for Evaluating NAFLD in the General Population? A Cross-Sectional Study

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is one of the most common cause of liver test abnormality and chronic liver disease in the world and can increase liver related mortality. Association of NAFLD with metabolic syndrome increase mortality due to cardiovascular disease too. NAFLD is categorized histologically into the nonalcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Liver biopsy has been known as gold standard of evaluating NAFLD, but this procedure is invasive. It is time to replace available and easier way to diagnose, and predict the prognosis for better management of NAFLD. This study was comparing the result of transabdominal ultrasonography with Fibroscan as a new and accurate method for evaluating severity of fatty liver disease. This was a cross-sectional study that was conducted using 101 patients with NAFLD. All patients who had TUS by one experienced radiologist and fibro scan at the same time were included. Visual liver echogenicity was basis of grading in TUS. Fibro scans results are based on controlled attenuation parameters (CAP) which is not operator dependent. Other information, such as age, waist, and BMI, were also gathered. TUS has a low value for the diagnosis of liver fibrosis in NAFLD patients and predicting prognosis. TUS has a good correlation with fibroscan in grade 0 and 1of fatty liver, but in grade 2 and 3 of fatty liver, we can not rely on TUS for accurate grading.

Cinnamon effects on blood pressure and metabolic profile: A double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial in patients with stage 1 hypertension

OBJECTIVE

Cinnamon effect on blood pressure remains controversial. The present pilot study assessed cinnamon effect on blood pressure, and metabolic profile of stage 1 hypertension patients (S1HTN).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This double-blind placebo-controlled randomized trial was conducted between June and October 2019, in Mashhad, Iran. Study inclusion criteria comprised S1HTN diagnosis, based on 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM). Subjects were randomly assigned to two groups: cinnamon group (capsule, 1500 mg/day, 90 days) and placebo group. On days 0 and 90, ABPM derived systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP, respectively), blood lipid profile, and fasting blood sugar (FBS) were recorded.

RESULTS

The two groups did not differ significantly regarding vascular risk factors, educational status, lipid profile and blood pressure at baseline, except for lower HDL-c in cinnamon group (p=0.03). On day 90, there was no significant difference between two study groups for lipid profile and blood pressure. A statistically significant decrease in mean 24-hr SBP and mean day SBP was observed in the cinnamon group, while mean night SBP and mean night DBP were decreased significantly in the placebo group after 90 days. A statistically significant decrease in mean change of day value of SBP was found in the cinnamon group, compared to the placebo. On day 90, FBS remained practically unchanged but a significant increase in HDL-c (5.8 unit; p=0.01) and a significant decrease in LDL-c levels (17.7 unit; p=0.009) were observed in the cinnamon group compared to placebo group.

CONCLUSION

Cinnamon caused a statistically significant decrease in mean ambulatory SBP but in a clinically moderate way, and lipid profile was significantly improved. Therefore, cinnamon might be considered a complementary treatment in subjects with S1HTN.

Water pipe tobacco smoking and risk of Coronary Artery Disease: A systematic review and meta-analyses

BACKGROUND

Water pipe smoking has become a vitally important public health issue in the world with untruthful assumed less harmful effect.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to systematically review the association of water pipe tobacco smoking and risk of coronary artery disease (CAD).

METHODS

Up to September 25, 2018, we electronically searched the PubMed, Embase, and ISI Web of Science with no time restriction. We included observational studies and excluded conference abstracts, editorials, case-reports, case series, and reviews. With fixed model effect, we conducted Meta-analysis to evaluate the association between Water pipe smoking and coronary artery disease. Heterogeneity among studies was assessed by I2 square test. Publication bias was assessed by Egger test. P<0.05 set as significant level.

RESULTS

Among 248 paper records identified through database search, 52 full texts were eligible for full text assessment whereas 49 papers were excluded. Additionally, three studies were eligible for meta-analysis, which involved 58,960 adults with 1334 in the water pipe smoker group. Risk of CAD was increased in water pipe smokers compared to individuals who had never smoked water pipe but the result did not reach statistical significance (OR=1.18, 95% CI: 0.98- 1.38, p=0.06). We found that heavy water pipe smoking (40 to 50 sessions of water-pipe smoking/year) was associated with CAD compared to lower smokers defined as less than 40 to 50 water pipe/year (OR=2.001, 95% CI: 1.13-2.87).

CONCLUSIONS

Heavy Water pipe smoking was associated to coronary artery disease on a clinical level. It seems very crucial to increase public awareness on adverse effects of water pipe smoking and its cessation in clinical setting.

Increased age, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and white blood cells count are associated with higher COVID-19 mortality

Objective

Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) caused by the highly pathogenic SARS-CoV-2, was first reported from Wuhan, China, in December 2019. The present study assessed possible associations between one-month mortality and demographic data, SpO₂, underlying diseases and laboratory findings, in COVID-19 patients. Also, since recent studies on COVID-19, have focused on Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) as an independent risk factor of the in-hospital death and a significant prognostic biomarker of outcomes in critically ill patients, in this study, we assessed predictive potential of this factor in terms of one-month mortality.

Methods

Patients admitted to Imam Reza hospital, affiliated to Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran, from March to June 2020, with positive RT-PCR results for SARS-CoV-2, were included in this study. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard model were used to respectively estimate one-month mortality since admission and determine factors associated with one-month mortality.

Results

In this retrospective cohort study, 219 patients were included (137 men and 82 women (mean age 58.2 ± 16 and 57 ± 17.3 years old, respectively)). Hypertension, ischemic heart disease and diabetes were respectively the most common comorbidities. Among these patients, 63 patients were admitted to the ICU and 31 deaths occurred during one-month follow-up. With respect to mean peripheral capillary oxygen saturation (SpO₂), 142 patients had SpO₂ ≤ 90%. Based on our analysis, older age and increased Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and White blood cells (WBC) count were associated with increased risk of one-month mortality. Patients with SpO₂ ≤ 90% had a 3.8-fold increase in risk of one-month death compared to those with SpO₂ > 90%, although the difference did not reach a significant level.

Conclusion

Multivariate analysis introduced age, WBC count, and NLR as predictors of one-month mortality in COVID-19 patients.

Regular physical activity postpones age of occurrence of first-ever stroke and improves long-term outcomes

OBJECTIVE

Few data are available on the associations between the level of pre-stroke physical activity and long-term outcomes in patients with stroke. This study is designed to assess the associations between pre-stroke physical activity and age of first-ever stroke occurrence and long-term outcomes.

METHODS

Six hundred twenty-four cases with first-ever stroke were recruited from the Mashhad Stroke Incidence Study a prospective population-based cohort in Iran. Data on Physical Activity Level (PAL) were collected retrospectively and were available in 395 cases. According to the PAL values, subjects were classified as inactive (PAL < 1.70) and active (PAL ≥ 1.70). Age at onset of stroke was compared between active and inactive groups. Using logistic model, we assessed association between pre-stroke physical activity and long-term (5-year) mortality, recurrence, disability, and functional dependency rates. We used multiple imputation to analyze missing data.

RESULTS

Inactive patients (PAL < 1.70) were more than 6 years younger at their age of first-ever-stroke occurrence (60.7 ± 15.5) than active patients (67.0 ± 13.2; p < 0.001). Patients with PAL< 1.7 also had a greater risk of mortality at 1 year [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 2.31; 95%CI: 1.14-4.67, p = 0.02] and 5 years after stroke (aOR = 1.81; 95%CI: 1.05-3.14, p = 0.03) than patients who were more physically active. Recurrence rate, disability, and functional dependency were not statistically different between two groups. Missing data analysis also showed a higher odds of death at one and 5 years for inactive patients.

CONCLUSIONS

In our cohort, we observed a younger age of stroke and a higher odds of 1- and 5-year mortality among those with less physical activity. This is an important health promotion strategy to encourage people to remain physically active.

Correlations between COVID-19 and burden of dementia: An ecological study and review of literature

INTRODUCTION

Current evidence on the association between COVID-19 and dementia is sparse. This study aims to investigate the associations between COVID-19 caseload and the burden of dementia.

METHODS

We gathered data regarding burden of dementia (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs] per 100,000), life expectancy, and healthy life expectancy (HALE) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. We obtained COVID-19 data from Our World in Data database. We analyzed the association of COVID-19 cases and deaths with the burden of dementia using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient.

RESULTS

Globally, we found significant positive (p < .001) correlations between life expectancy (r = 0.60), HALE (r = 0.58), and dementia DALYs (r = 0.46) with COVID-19 caseloads. Likewise, we found similar correlations between life expectancy (r = 0.60), HALE (r = 0.58) and dementia DALYs (r = 0.54) with COVID-19 mortality.

CONCLUSION

Health policymakers should clarify a targeted model of disease surveillance in order to reduce the dual burden of dementia and COVID-19.

COVID-19 Pandemic and Burden of Non-Communicable Diseases: An Ecological Study on Data of 185 Countries

BACKGROUND

The interaction between coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and non-communicable diseases may increase the global burden of disease. We assessed the association of COVID-19 with ageing and non-communicable diseases.

METHODS

We extracted data regarding non-communicable disease, particularly cardiovascular disease, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017. We obtained data of confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths, and tests from the Our World in Data database as of May 28, 2020. Potential confounders of pandemic outcomes analyzed include institutional lockdown delay, hemispheric geographical location, and number of tourists. We compared all countries according to GBD classification and World Bank income level. We assessed the correlation between independent variables associated with COVID-19 caseload and mortality using Spearman's rank correlation and adjusted mixed model analysis.

FINDINGS

High-income had the highest, and the Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania region had the least cases per million population (3050.60 vs. 63.86). Sub-saharan region has reported the lowest number of COVID-19 mortality (1.9). Median delay to lockdown initiation varied from one day following the first case in Latin America and Caribbean region, to 34 days in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania. Globally, non-communicable disease DALYs were correlated with COVID-19 cases (r = 0.32, p<0.001) and deaths (r = 0.37, p<0.001). HALE correlated with COVID-19 cases (r = 0.63, p<0.001) and deaths (r = 0.61, p<0.001). HALE was independently associated with COVID-19 case rate and the number of tourists was associated with COVID-19 mortality in the adjusted model.

INTERPRETATION

Preventive measures against COVID-19 should protect the public from the dual burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases, particularly in the elderly. In addition to active COVID-19 surveillance, policymakers should utilize this evidence as a guide for prevention and coordination of health services. This model is timely, as many countries have begun to reduce social isolation.

Evaluating the efficacy and safety of vascular IPL for treatment of acute cutaneous leishmaniasis: a randomized controlled trial

Treatment of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) continues to be a health concern, and alternative therapies with fewer side effects are substantially needed. This study aimed to determine the efficacy of intense pulsed light (IPL) with wavelength spectrum affecting vascular lesions on acute cutaneous leishmaniasis. In this randomized clinical trial study, 30 patients with acute CL were enrolled. Baseline clinical and demographic data were recorded in the checklist after obtaining written informed consent. Patients were randomly allocated to receive either IPL fortnightly (intervention group) or intralesional meglumine antimoniate (MA) weekly (control group) over 10 weeks. Patients were assessed every 2 weeks to determine the size of induration and improvement rate of lesions. Follow-up visits were arranged at 3rd and 6th months. Overall, 15 patients (21 lesions) in the intervention group and 15 patients (22 lesions) in the control group were studied. The size of lesions in the control group was significantly higher at the baseline (P = 0.014) and the second week (P = 0.034), and significantly lower in the eighth week (P = 0.009), compared with the intervention group. The size of lesions in the control group changed during the study (P < 0.001), whereas changes were not significant in the intervention group. The trend of changes in size of lesions was faster in the control group (P < 0.001). More patients in the control group had higher improvement rate at the sixth (P = 0.005) and tenth (P < 0.001) weeks. At the end of study, the cure rate was 35% (7 out of 20 lesions) in intervention group and 81.8% (18 out of 22 lesions) in the control group. Complete response happened earlier in the control group (P < 0.001). None of the lesions that were cured before the tenth week relapsed after 6 months. The frequency of blistering was significantly higher in intervention group (P = 0.001). Our results indicated that IPL with wavelength spectrum affecting vascular lesions was inferior to intralesional MA in treatment of CL. However, it can be considered as a second-line option, especially in patients with limitations for use of MA. Trial registry:  https://www.irct.ir/trial/34246 IRCT20140414017271N5.

A study of the factors associated with non-traumatic intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in patients with chronic systemic hypertension

Objective: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) following systemic and chronic hypertension is one of the main causes of acute stroke leading to disability and death. Identifying the risk factors in ICH patients can be effective in reducing bleeding and the rates of mortality and disability in these patients. This study was carried out to investigate the factors associated with ICH. Methods: A total of 134 patients with chronic systemic hypertension who had ICH were enrolled in this study. The amount of ICH was measured through computed tomography (CT scan). The subjects were divided into two groups of high (>30 mL) and low (<30 mL) ICH volume, and the related risk factors in the two groups were studied and compared using SPSS software version 21. Results: The mean age of the subjects was 66.04 years, and 71 (52.99%) individuals were females. The mean volume of ICH was 24.47 mL, with 29.10% of the subjects (39 patients) having >30 mL and 70.90% (95 patients) having <30 mL of ICH. The results of studying ICHrelated factors in the multiple logistic regression showed that ischemic heart disease (IHD) (odds ratio [OR] = 2.243, P value <0.05) and cardiovascular disease (OR = 3.294, P value <0.05) were the co-existing diseases that increased the odds of developing ICH. Conclusion: The results of this study showed that less than 30% of the subjects had high volumes of bleeding, and the co-existence of IHD was considered as a strong independent risk factor affecting the volume of ICH associated with worse prognosis.

Call to Action: SARS-CoV-2 and CerebrovAscular DisordErs (CASCADE)

Background and purpose

The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2), now named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), may change the risk of stroke through an enhanced systemic inflammatory response, hypercoagulable state, and endothelial damage in the cerebrovascular system. Moreover, due to the current pandemic, some countries have prioritized health resources towards COVID-19 management, making it more challenging to appropriately care for other potentially disabling and fatal diseases such as stroke. The aim of this study is to identify and describe changes in stroke epidemiological trends before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

This is an international, multicenter, hospital-based study on stroke incidence and outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic. We will describe patterns in stroke management, stroke hospitalization rate, and stroke severity, subtype (ischemic/hemorrhagic), and outcomes (including in-hospital mortality) in 2020 during COVID-19 pandemic, comparing them with the corresponding data from 2018 and 2019, and subsequently 2021. We will also use an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to assess the change in stroke hospitalization rates before, during, and after COVID-19, in each participating center.

Conclusion

The proposed study will potentially enable us to better understand the changes in stroke care protocols, differential hospitalization rate, and severity of stroke, as it pertains to the COVID-19 pandemic. Ultimately, this will help guide clinical-based policies surrounding COVID-19 and other similar global pandemics to ensure that management of cerebrovascular comorbidity is appropriately prioritized during the global crisis. It will also guide public health guidelines for at-risk populations to reduce risks of complications from such comorbidities.

Primary Angle Closure Glaucoma-associated Genetic Polymorphisms in Northeast Iran

Purpose

To evaluate the association of five different polymorphisms from a genome-wide-associated study with susceptibility to glaucoma in the northeast Iranian population.

Methods

Hundred and thirty patients with primary angle closure glaucoma (PACG) and 130 healthy controls were genotyped for the polymorphic regions with the aid of tetra-amplification refractory mutation system-polymerase chain reaction. The association of these variants with the disease susceptibility was measured statistically with the logistic regression method.

Results

Hundred and thirty patients with PACG (53 males, 77 females) with a mean age of 64.5 ± 6.2 years and 130 healthy control subjects (51 males, 79 females) with a mean age of 64.0 ± 5.7 years were selected for evaluation. There was a significant association between rs3816415 (P = 0.005), rs736893 (P< 0.001), rs7494379 (P< 0.001), and rs1258267 (P = 0.02) with PACG susceptibility. This association could not be shown for rs3739821.

Conclusion

It was revealed that studied variants in GLIS3, EPDR1, FERMT2, and CHAT genes can contribute to the incidence of PACG. Additional studies in other populations are needed to evaluate DPM2-FAM102A.

NEW PROPOSED FORMULA OF TI-RADS CLASSIFICATION BASED ON ULTRASOUND FINDINGS

Introduction

The present study aimed to introduce a new formula for classification of nodules in TI-RADS and describe ultrasonography features of benign and malignant thyroid nodules.

Methods

This study was conducted on thyroid mass in 1033 patients. The incidence of malignancy for thyroid nodules was determined by selecting malignancy coefficients. Then the patients were first classified using conventional TI-RADS classification criteria and once again according to a new proposed formula.

Results

Among ultrasonography features of thyroid nodules, the irregular shape (46.7%), unclear margin (47.3%), extension to the capsule (irregular and infiltrative margin) (85%), the marked hypo-echoic nodules (63.8%), micro-calcification (49%), and to have vertical axis (74.0%) were associated with high incidence of malignancy.

Conclusion

According to the proposed new formula for TI-RADS, there are four coefficients of 7, 3, 1 and 0 for incidence of malignancy of each one of ultrasound findings that help to standardization and unifying of TI-RADS classification. The incidence of malignancy in TI-RADS classification according to the new proposed formula was achieved as follows: group 2: 0.0%, group 3: 0.7%, groups 4a, 4b, 4c: 16.7%, 43.4%, 68.5%, and group 5: 95.2%, respectively.

The Effects of Gonadotropin-Releasing Hormone Analog and a Combination of Gonadotropin-Releasing Hormone Analog and Recombinant Human Growth Hormone on Adult Height in Girls with Early Puberty

Background:

Early puberty (EP) is due to the activation of gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) pulse generator in lower ages; EP may be a potential cause for impairment of adult height, leading to short stature. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of GnRH analog (GnRHa) and GnRHa plus recombinant human growth hormone (rhGH) treatment on final height in healthy girls with EP.

Materials and Methods:

Fifty EP girls (sexual maturity rating: 2–3) with chronological age (CA) 9.22 ± 0.56 and bone age (BA) 9.74 ± 0.59 years were treated with GnRHa (Triptorelin) at a dose of 100 μg/kg body weight (BW) as intramuscular every 28 days for 2.82 ± 0.57 years; 45 EP girls with CA 9.84 ± 0.57 and BA 10.14 ± 1.02 years were also treated with the same GnRHa plus rhGH (Norditropin) at a dose of 0.1 unit/kg BW daily for 6 days in a week for 2.55 ± 0.6 years. In the control group, 33 EP girls followed for the same period without treatment. Height, weight, and body mass index of girls and parents were assessed. Predicted adult height (PAH) at the start and the end of the study and target height were assessed.

Results:

PAH at the end of the study in the GnRHa group was not different with untreated girls. PAH at the end of the treatment in GnRHa plus rhGH group was significantly higher than both untreated and GnRHa group. PAH at the end of therapy in GnRHa plus rhGH group was significantly more than their target height.

Conclusion:

GnRHa therapy has a benefit effect in achievement of target height. Combination therapy with GnRHa plus rhGH increased their PAH more than both untreated and GnRHa groups.

Investigating the Manifestation of Coronary Artery Disease and Determining the Role of Effective Factors in the Need for Pacemaker Insertion in These Patients

BACKGROUND:

Many patients who are candidates for a pacemaker are also at the same time risk factors for coronary artery disease such as high blood pressure, hypertension, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia, and therefore the probability of having coronary artery disease is significant. Effective diagnostic measures can be taken to prove the factors affecting the incidence of CAD in patients undergoing pacemakers at high-risk, including angiography. Therefore, it can prevent complications during and after pacemaker implantation, which leads to an increase in the quality of treatment in patients requiring pacemaker implantation.

AIM:

Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine the predictive factors of significant coronary artery disease in patients with pacemaker implantation to identify patients in need of coronary angiography at the time of pacemaker implantation.

METHODS:

This retrospective study was carried out to examine the patients’ files that were placed at the heart of Imam Reza Hospital during the period between March 2017 and September 2017. Demographic data, risk factors, echocardiography findings, and angiography, were collected and then recorded using a checklist. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software version 22 and Chi-square, and Mann-Whitney tests were used for determining significates variables.

RESULTS:

A group of 102 patients who had undergone a permanent cardiac pacemaker insertion due to an atrioventricular (AV) Block were included in the study, and also coronary anatomy was determined coronary angiography. Based on the results, 13.7% of patients with cardiac pacemaker had obstructive coronary artery disease (stenosis > 70%). Factors affecting coronary artery stenosis on angiography include gender, chest pain, history of myocardial infarction, angioplasty, diabetes, smoking, history of aspirin intake, calcium blocker and Plavix, high hematocrit, ST elevation and ST depression in the ECG, and severe mitral regurgitation.

CONCLUSION:

It seems that in most patients requiring permanent pacemaker insertion because of the atrioventricular (AV) Block, angiography does not change the patient’s fate, and so can be ignored. However, in patients who have several risk factors from the listed above, coronary angiography is recommended during admission.

Risk factors of premature coronary artery disease in Iran: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to determine the mean age at which coronary artery disease (CAD) hase decreased in recent years in Iran. This systematic review and meta-analysis compares the prevalence of different risk factors of premature CAD (PCAD) in patients vs healthy individuals.

METHODS

Medline, Web of Science, Embase and Scientific Information Database were searched for studies about PCAD risk factors in Iran until 28 October 2017. Observational studies of Iranians, comparing risk factors between patients with PCAD and age- and sex-matched healthy subjects, were included. Fixed-effects and random-effects model were used for pooling data. Odds ratio (OR) with 95% CI and mean difference were used for effect size estimation among studies.

RESULTS

Twelve studies were eligible for meta-analysis. Diabetes mellitus (OR: 2.4, 95% CI: 1.9-3.03; P = 0.0001, I²  = 25.5%; P = 0.2), family history of CAD (OR: 2.09, 95% CI: 1.22-3.6; P = 0.007, I²  = 86%; P = 0.0001), dyslipidaemia (OR: 2.05, 95% CI: 1.15-3.64; P = 0.01, I²  = 54%; P = 0.08), smoking (OR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.11-2.46; P = 0.01, I²  = 77.2%; P = 0.000) and hypertension (OR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.21 to-1.50; P < 0.001, I²  = 31%, P = 0.1) associated with PCAD. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that patients with PCAD had significantly lower levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and significantly higher levels of triglycerides compared to healthy subjects (MD: -2.56, 95% CI: -3.54 to -1.58, P < 0.001, I²  = 42%, P = 0.01 and MD: 21.17, 95% CI: 14.73-27.62, P < 0.001, I²  = 80.12%, P < 0.001, respectively). It should be noted that although high levels of heterogeneity in LDL and HDL values among the studies were observed, when dyslipidaemia was studied as a binary variable, no significant heterogeneity among studies was observed.

CONCLUSION

Diabetes mellitus, family history of CAD, dyslipidaemia, smoking, and hypertension were significantly and positively associated with CAD in young adults compared to healthy age- and sex-matched population in Iran.